An Islander’s insight for Canes Playoff time!

All right, playoff time. The NHL is here.

Stanley Cup playoffs, I'm outside PNC Arena. Michael Leibov, my friend, The Action Network, at The Big Lebowski on Twitter, Islanders Anxiety Podcast. All right, let's start with your guys who get Matthew Barzil back.

All right, the level of excitement now that number 13 is fully operational. Yeah, it's a big deal, obviously, and thanks for having me, Adam. It's nice to do one of these where I'm not fretting about the Rangers and get to talk about my Islanders a little bit instead. And I'll say this about Barzil. One thing I think that people aren't really delving into, most of the pre-series content has been about, you know, will he be healthy enough? What does this mean for him and Bo Horvat? What does it mean for this terrible power play? But I actually think that the sneaky part of getting Barzil back is what does this mean for the Brock Nelson line, which was growing really well since Pierre Engvall joined him and Kyle Palmeri, because now it gives Brad Brendan more a decision. Jordan Stahl has dominated Matt Barzil in matchups for as long as I can remember now when these two teams have played. And now with Barzil moving to the wing, does he think, okay, we got to put the Stahl line on Nelson Palmeri and Engvall, which would hopefully open up the ice a little bit for Barzil and Horvat. And I think that that is one of the ripple effects that people aren't realizing here is that the Islanders were a team with a decent first line and then middle six lines that would grade out as normally as like third line. But now they have a legitimate top six and that gives Brendan Moore a pretty tough decision here on which line to match up against Jordan Stahl.

Michael Leibov, Action Network at the big Lebowski on Twitter. Rod has typically, you know, basically taken who he believes is the most dangerous line, unless there is a speed issue for the Stahl line. He's basically taken Stahl and put them, that line, on the other team's most dangerous trio. Last year in the playoffs against Boston, it was the Bergeron line that Stahl, Stahl line matched up with. Then in the second round, it was Zibanejad and Kreider here. He doesn't have that match up on the road. Let me flip it though and ask what scares you about the Hurricanes lineup?

My guess is, judging from the last two months, not much. You know what? Let's say there's like a particular facet of the on-paper lineup, but it's just that the Hurricanes have shown and they do it against the Islanders. Heck, we saw it two weeks ago in a must-win game for the Islanders where the Hurricanes just smothered them. From the second the puck dropped, the Islanders barely had a chance to get anything going. Carolina is a team that, no matter who you are and how many star players you have, no matter what your goalie is like, they could just have a game or two in a seven-game series where you just feel like you don't touch the puck.

So that forecheck and their ability to just own the puck, move it quickly from their D zone to your D zone is really scary. But if I had to pick out an actual player, I think Brent Burns is a little scary because the Islanders... I don't think, when you look at these two teams, the forward lines, you can really make an argument. Maybe the Islanders have the better forward lines.

If you want, I think it's pretty much a wash depending on what version of Matt Barzil we get. But the defense, the blue line, the edge is clearly with Carolina. Brent Burns, I think, is a little bit of an x-factor here because with Noah Dobson not having the best season for the Islanders, there's one defenseman here who can win a series with a big goal and that's Burns. So he's a little scary.

I'm a little worried about that. He's so good at getting the puck through into good areas for tips and chaos off of rebounds. That's what the Canes are going to have to rely on to beat Sorokin if he's up the song. Let me ask you real quick about Ilya Sorokin, who I think is one of the best two or three goaltenders in the entire sport. But this is the first time he goes into a playoff series as the number one netminder back five years ago that it was more Varlamov. Actually, no, it was Lenner then, but even the last time the Islanders made the playoffs, it was more Varlamov, although they both played. So what are your thoughts about Sorokin as the guy going in? I mean, it's really hard to say you're not confident in him that he'll be the good. Like you said, it was Varlamov who played the lion's share of games in that playoff run, but Varley was like a surprise scratch in game one against Pittsburgh that year.

And everyone got a little nervous. Sorokin making his first NHL playoff start. And he stole that series from the Penguins flat out. 944 save percentage, 4-0 because Varlamov played the two games that they lost. Including a game five performance that in my lifetime probably was the best Islander playoff goaltending performance I've ever seen. Where they got a shell by the Penguins from the second the puck dropped in double overtime and they still ended up winning.

So I have all the confidence in the world in this guy. He's won playoff series in the KHL on his own. He's clearly a money goalie, but it just depends on how much, you know, just how much rubber is he going to see compared to the other way with Ronta tonight and Anderson could check up going forward, whatever combination. Because as long as the Islanders can kind of keep it close enough, I think they have a chance, but asking him to save two for every one is pretty tough. First, first to three, you think wins any game?

It does feel like that for sure. I think this is, this is the type of series where the narrative is, is, you know, three to every game, couple overtime games. So maybe there's going to be one crazy game where it's, it ends up being six four because neither goalie has it or there's chaos or something. But it does feel like a first to three kind of series, which is, you know, island Islanders are lucky to get this kind of draw rather than another team that could score the lights out. I actually feel the, the same way, just because of the style that this, I think this series will be played out. But if there's going to be a game where all, where it goes bananas, I'll bet it's tonight.

I'll bet it's tonight. And then it kind of settles into a normal series. Michael Liebauf, The Action Network and the Islander's Anxiety podcast is here with me.

A couple of quick things about the rest of the landscape. I'm a little surprised the Hurricanes I saw were like, you know, tied fifth choice to win the Stanley Cup with all of their, you know, goal tending being just okay, power play being no good, goal scoring being kind of mid over the course of the last two months. Are you, are you surprised that there's like, there should be more value there?

There should be. Yeah, I would agree with you. I was kind of hoping like two weeks ago that we'd see this number really drift, but we never did because then I would say, hey, they're, they're by low opportunity. They could turn any game into a coin flip and in a seven game series that matters.

So it is a little surprising. I still think that, you know, a lot of, a lot of and model sports really look at five on five numbers pretty heavily and Carolina grades out so well there, but you have to look at what they've been doing over the last, you know, 22 games or so since and the Fechnikov injury and it's just not been all that great. So I do think it's, it's a little, a little short and they should probably be, you know, further, further down in the mid pack rather than one of the top five favorites, but you know, this stuff is a lot of times determined by how much money the books have taken on teams all season and Carolina was certainly popular early on. All right, let me ask you about, I mean, Boston is such an overwhelming favorite. There's no value there.

It's like, you know, two, I think I saw two plus 265. Where, where is the value other than I'm shocked that Tampa is 20 to one. Yeah, I think Tampa is an interesting shout for sure. You're just, you're going to be kicking yourself in a couple of weeks if they get through the first two rounds and you're like, you know, I saw them at 20 to one.

I wanted to do it and I didn't. I would bet Boston is betting Patrice Bergeron. You can get him 30 or 40 to one to win the consummate. And I know he's battling an injury right now, but it's, this is an award that's voted by human beings and sports writers and Bergeron wins a Stanley cup in what is probably his swan song. It's going to be really hard for those writers not to vote for him.

So that's how I do it. And I like, um, in the same way, I like the Winnipeg jets just generally as a value play. If, if chaos ensues out west, I'm just betting the best goalie to be the last one standing. And you can either bet the jets at a, at a big number to win the Stanley cup, or you can bet Connor Hellebock, uh, to win the consummate.

Cause it's pretty hard to imagine the jets making a run without Hellebock being the most valuable player on that team by a long shot. Michael Lee Boff of the action network at the big Lee Bowski on Twitter islanders anxiety podcast. I'm going to buy only bothering you for the next two weeks. My friend. I appreciate your time. Yeah. Good luck. Good luck. This should be fun.