Isaiah 32, 18 reads, My people will abide in a peaceful habitation, in secure dwellings, and in quiet resting places.
I am Rob West. That verse describes what we're all looking for when buying a home. Lately, rising home values have made that difficult.
Will that continue in 2022? Mortgage expert Dale Vermilion joins us to talk about that. Then it's on to your calls at 800-525-7000.
That's 800-525-7000. This is MoneyWise Live, biblical wisdom for your financial decisions. Well, our guest Dale Vermilion is the author of Navigating the Mortgage Maze, the simple truth about financing your home.
And since securing a mortgage is closely tied to home values, Dale has had to keep up with the rising housing market. And Dale, we're glad to have you back on the program. Rob, it's always glad to be here. Thanks for the opportunity. Appreciate it.
Absolutely. So a few months back when you were with us, Dale, it looked like skyrocketing home values were perhaps beginning to peak in some areas, but a couple of recent forecasts have indicated otherwise. So bring us up to speed on what you're seeing. Well, you know, we've seen a 22% increase this year, year over year. And if you look at some of the forecasts, it's a little predictive. We're going to see a 13.6% rise next year. Goldman Sachs said 16% by the end of next year. So there are some differing opinions and there's more than just those.
Yeah. Well, if those forecasts are right, talk to us about what that means for home buyers. Well, that would not be great news, as you know, because affordability has become one of the major issues.
But CoreLogic, who actually does an awful lot of work in the property value arena, actually has a very different opinion, Rob. They're saying only a 2.2% raise next year. And the reason they're believing that is because we are seeing a pretty good jump in interest rates over the last several weeks that we anticipate to stay because of inflation and other factors. If that's the case, that 2.2 would be a whole lot better for our listeners, because if you want to buy, it's going to make affordability much better and it's going to help them be in a better position when it comes to that.
We're still keeping the value of the property if you own a home right now with plenty of equity. Yeah, interesting. Dale, in your opinion, why such a big difference in these forecasts? You know, I think you just have to look at the nature of where the forecasts come from and just the economic factors they're using.
So Zillow, for sure, and Goldman Sachs, they're more looking at the aggressive side of the market they always have, where CoreLogic really does use data that's based on what they believe is empirical data and they take more emphasis into what the market is doing. When you look at all those different economic models out there, it becomes pretty complex. But when you look at things like our inflation right now being the highest in over 30 years, when you look at rates rising, when you look at the fact that the Fed has tapered back on buying mortgage backed securities and bonds, when you look at our debt load, you and I have had many conversations about that on a governmental level. These things all tell us that we should be in line for a pretty good increase in interest rates over the next period of time. Somewhere between 3.4 to 4.0 are the projections in 2022. When that happens, you start to see property values level off. And I think CoreLogic is going with that kind of data.
Interesting. But that means that the so-called good news of easing home values isn't all good for home buyers if it's accompanied by rising mortgage rates. So at the end of the day, what does this all really mean then for home buyers, Dale?
You know, it means a couple of things. First off, it is some good news because as you see these values start to drop, what's going to happen, Rob, is all this negotiating war that has really driven values and really created a lot of problems for buyers is going to go away. And we're going to see a more normal market. And when you think about what interest rates do, they don't impact greatly what's going to happen.
For every half a percent on a $250,000 loan, for example, it's only a $3 difference in the payments per month on a 25 year loan. So you're going to see affordability coming to line a little bit better than what it's been. And it's going to give people an opportunity to be in a much better position financially.
Yeah, very interesting. Well, we'll continue to unpack this just around the quarter. If you're a home buyer, should you move ahead with your plan?
Should you wait for values to level off? What is the change in interest rates going to mean for you? And what do you need to know about securing a mortgage in these challenging times?
Because that's just as important as it's ever been, perhaps more in this hot seller's market. We'll cover all of this and more with our good friend Dale Vermilion, the author of Navigating the Mortgage Maze. We'd also love to take your questions on home buying, on mortgages and interest rates, whatever's on your mind today. 800-525-7000. Dale Vermilion will be here in the next segment, ready to take your calls.
Again, 800-525-7000. This is MoneyWise Live. Stay with us. We'll be right back.
Welcome back to MoneyWise Live. I'm Rob West, your host. Phone lines are open for your calls and questions.
800-525-7000. Right in this first part of the program here today, we're taking your calls on the housing market, perhaps buying or selling a home, also mortgages and interest rates. We'd love to hear from you if you have a question related to that. Dale Vermilion, our guest today. Dale is the good friend, regular contributor to the program and the author of Navigating the Mortgage Maze, the simple truth about financing your home.
You can pick it up wherever you buy your books. Dale, before we take some questions, you have said just before the break that we've already seen a rise in home values nationwide of 22% since the onset of COVID. And next year is forecasted to be another increasing year. You think perhaps 2.2% based on one study that uses data you like a lot, although between Zillow and Goldman Sachs, they're saying it could be as much as 13-16%. But the bottom line is nobody's calling for a decline or a decrease in home values, which means we're not in a bubble. This was brought on by real supply issues. It's really just a matter of how much more will it go up. Is that right?
It really is. And, you know, when you think about, you know, should I buy or should I not buy, you know, it really comes down to simple math. You know, we all have to have a housing payment. If you're in a rental position and you're trying to figure out if you want to buy based on where affordability is at, you take what your affordable rent payment is.
We talk about this all the time, Rob. You always want to do a budget first, see what you can afford comfortably. Once you establish what that affordable rent payment is, you can back into that to see how much mortgage that gets you.
And then here's just a simple formula. Every $10,000 in additional value you add on at a 3.5% rate, which is about where you think rates are going to be in 2022 on a 25-year loan. Now notice I didn't go 30-year loan because I don't like 30-year loans for anybody. You want to try and get a 25 or 20 and get out of debt.
You're only looking at $50 a month each time. So it kind of helps you determine, OK, I can afford this much of my rent payment today. And if I had to have a little bit more value to get in, where can I go to and still be within my budget for what rents are today?
So it's a comparison. And generally, you want to try to be in a home if you can versus renting. You just don't want to put yourself ever in a position where you can't afford that.
And the best way to know that is to follow a great budget. Go over that rule of thumb, Dale, again at 3.5%. What are they looking at per $10,000 in borrowing?
$50 per $10,000 on a 25-year term at a 3.5% rate. So it just kind of helps you understand. If I look today and let's say rents in my area are $2,200 and I back into that and I can afford that comfortably and I back into that and say, OK, I'm buying this much home, but I need a little bit more and I can afford a little bit more because my budget allows it. You can use that simple math to determine how much you can get to and still be affordable. And they may be surprised how much mortgage they can afford, given where rent prices are right now, because as a result of the housing market, that's driven rental rates up considerably, right?
It has. Supply is supply and demand is demand. So the problem is that rents have gone astronomically high in a lot of markets.
So where a lot of people think, you know, we just think about how much that loan amount is and it scares us. But when you compare the payment back and you think about the investment opportunity within a property, you find you actually can get a pretty good value home in this marketplace for what you'd rent for today in most markets across the country. Now, Dale, if somebody is planning to buy a home, they're ready to do that and they can check those boxes you just mentioned. They can get the 25, not the 30-year mortgage.
They can do it well within their budget, which we would say as a rule of thumb means no more than 25 percent of your take-home pay going to your principal interest, taxes and insurance. They've got 20 percent down. Are you encouraging them to go ahead and make that purchase now given what you're projecting for next year? You know, I would, because the 2.2 percent is a low side projection. The 16 percent is the high side projection. We're going to see some kind of increase.
Now, again, this is a national number. You want to know your region because there are some regions that obviously do much better than others. You want to know how property values are in your region. We're finding, for example, right now, if you live in an area that people like to vacation in with all the work from home nationwide, those are very, very optimal homes to have. And people are wanting to buy there.
Those values are going up faster than in other places in the country. So you'll just want to know your marketplace. And if you've got reserves, we always talk about this. Don't put all your money down and leave nothing in reserves.
Make sure you've got reserves. And make sure you put yourself in a good position to get a contract. Be a strong buyer. The way you do that is with a good, solid down payment. And also make sure that you've got a good, solid pre-approval. When you go to your lender, get fully pre-approved.
Give them all your documentation so you can present that to the realtor as a pre-approved, not a pre-qualified offer. Yeah. And given what's happened in the housing market in the last couple of years, I would encourage you to plan to stay for at least five to seven years, whereas we previously had said three to five.
If we hit a recession a couple of years from now, we could see a cooling of the housing market. And we certainly wouldn't want you to be in a position where you're ever upside down. All right. Let's take some phone calls for Dale Vermillion today. 800-525-7000 is the number to call. We have a few lines open.
If it's buying or selling a home, perhaps a mortgage question, we'd love to hear from you. Again, 800-525-7000 will begin today in Northbrook, Illinois, and we'll talk to Jimana. Thank you for calling.
How can we help? Hello? Hi there. Go right ahead. Hi.
I'm calling to find out. I had a home equity line of credit right before the pandemic because our business stopped working, so we decided to take and change the roof of the house. And that told us at the moment that we could fix. It was going to be a variable interest, but we could lock it in whatever moment or whatever time we wanted. And we decided to go ahead and do the locking because of taking advantage of the low interest and the bank refused to lock it, you know, to lock the interest. And they said, no, you have to go through another institution or if you decide to go with us, you have to make like our mortgage again, our first mortgage. And I don't know if it's a good idea or how can I go about. Dale, do you follow that?
Any thoughts? Well, first of all, I'm sorry that they said that to you and then did not do that. But a line of credit by nature doesn't have a fixed interest rate. It's kind of the way that line of credits are set up because they are based to adjust with with the Fed rates that are going on. Typically, what you'd have to convert it to is in a fixed rate, fixed term, either a home equity loan, which you could do. You don't necessarily have to pay off the whole mortgage. If you've got enough equity in the property, your value is probably grown so you probably can qualify for that either with that institution or another institution. Or you could roll it into a refinance mortgage, which you want to look at is what your rate is on your current first mortgage, what the rate is on your second mortgage to blend those two together and then compare to what a first mortgage rate would be if you refinance the whole thing. What I would do is I would have a couple of mortgage companies I would talk to and I would have them give you a straight second mortgage home equity loan offer to pay that off on a short-term basis, see what they've got, and then a second option to wrap it in with the first and see which one just gives you better payments, better terms overall. The key is if you refinance it in with the first, don't re-extend back out to 30 years on your first mortgage.
So if you have 25 left, for example, make sure you go no longer than 25 years so you're not re-extending term on that and also pull in that second mortgage in. Very good. Himana, thank you so much for your call today. We appreciate that.
We're going to pause for a brief break. We come back much more with Dale Vermillion, our guest today. He's the author of Navigating the Mortgage Maze, The Simple Truth About Financing Your Home. We've got some folks waiting. Ian wants to know about flipping homes as a business. Jean is a stay-at-home mom, has a question about getting into real estate, and Rodney is wanting to know about home prices in his area there in Lee County, Florida.
That and much more right around the corner. Stay with us. Thanks for joining us today. This is MoneyWise Live. I'm Rob West, your host. This is biblical wisdom for your financial decisions. Joining us today, our good friend and regular contributor to MoneyWise Live, Dale Vermillion. He's a mortgage pro and his book is called Navigating the Mortgage Maze, which by the way is based on solid biblical financial principles helping you make decisions to secure and fund your home wisely.
Dale's with us for this segment and perhaps one more, taking your calls and questions. And Dale, before we head back to the phones, what do home buyers need to know right now about securing a mortgage in particular in these challenging times? Well, I think the first thing you need to understand is that it's a very competitive marketplace out there when you're buying a home. You want to, again, make sure you're the strongest possible buyer to the sellers you can be. So make sure you do your homework and do that.
Do your homework. Do your budget like we talked about. Make sure you get all your documentation together before you ever talk to a lender.
Have your income documentation in two years, two years W-2s and tax forms, recent pay stubs, bank statements, mortgage statements, credit card statements. The more you have, the better they can do their job and the faster you can get approved and get a contract in so you actually get accepted for an offer. That's the key. If you do that and you know your marketplace and do your homework and don't overbid on properties, you're doing the right thing. Yeah. And that not overbidding is key, especially when we get emotionally wrapped up in a property we like.
The bidding war starts and all of a sudden we're making decisions we wouldn't otherwise make. So be on your guard there for sure. Thanks, Dale. Let's head back to the phones. Yeah, exactly right.
You've got to know what that max is. Rodney is in Fort Myers. Rodney, thank you for your call, sir. How can we help?
Hey, thanks for taking my call. I live in Lee County, Florida, and we sold our condo back in March with the wanting to buy a home. So we moved into an apartment and then the market went crazy on home prices. Homes that people have bought, same home in 2019, 2020 for $200,000, they put on the market this year for $400,000 and they're bringing $450,000. How is that relating nationally?
I mean, do you have any familiarity with this area? Is this an anomaly? Is this going to come back down or is this going to be the new norm or do we know? Well, I'll let Dale weigh in. I will say Jim Henry, who's doing research for us today, did look up the median home price in Lee County, which right now is sitting at about $300,000, up 22.5% from a year ago. So that over the entire county does put it right in the center of the national average. Perhaps pockets of Lee County are seeing more significant moves to the upside.
And Dale, that's probably not surprising, especially in Florida. It's not. Florida has become a very appealing market because there's no state tax because of a lot of factors that have driven that. It's become very popular with climate, all those kind of things.
But here's the bottom line. You know, everything at some point is going to level off and we will see reversals in some marketplaces in the special markets like a Florida. This could be the new norm for a while because we're living in an inflationary times.
And when you do, this is what you see happen. Again, it comes back to a personal budget decision and making sure you're never buying something you can't afford and understanding that in these markets like Florida that are very popular and there is very high demand with limited supply, you're going to see continued pressure like that. And now with the supply chain issues we've got with new constructions, that's going to even drive a little bit more probably in those markets.
So we are not. It's crazy. It doesn't make sense for properties to go up that fast. But and they are a little bit overinflated.
But it's what the market's calling for right now. None of us holds what the future holds except for the good Lord. We just pray and make decisions based on what we can afford. And if you do that, you're going to be in a good position. Yeah, I think the key Rodney is do your homework. And as Dale said a moment ago, set your max and don't chase a home that is beyond your budget because buying too much house is one of the key budget busters we want to be on our guard against.
So all the best to you. We'll ask the Lord to give you some wisdom as you navigate these challenging markets, especially there in Florida. Let's stay. Well, actually, Arizona is where Gina is located. Gina, go right ahead.
Hi. So I've been a stay-at-home mom for going on nine years now. And I'm just ready to go out and get a job and I be a normal person, I guess, that goes to work. But I was looking into real estate and I don't know, to be honest, I have no clue about real estate. So I'm going to try to get that license pre licensing course, which is four weeks. And I just wanted to know what was your thoughts about going into real estate? Yeah, Gina, I appreciate that.
I will say you've had perhaps one of the most worthwhile and among the toughest jobs as a stay-at-home mom. But Dale, what are your thoughts on getting into real estate right now? Yeah, I agree with that. Well, you know, the Arizona market is one of the probably top five markets in the United States when it comes to retirement communities and property value growth and people just wanting to live there, especially with the exodus out of California. So that's going to be a really great real estate market for a long time now. So if you're going to pick a place to be in the real estate market, that's a good one to look at. And the key is just, you know, it doesn't hurt ever to get your real estate license.
That class is going to be very beneficial for you. I would pursue that and I would try to get with somebody, you know, who's in the real estate market and see if you can kind of come alongside them, let them mentor you a little bit. That's a good way to get started in the marketplace. And then you can kind of grow from there into the position.
But that's certainly a good market to be in when you look at markets in the U.S. Gina, thank you for your call. Dale's going to stick around one more segment. Carla, Ian, Patricia, you hang on the line. We'll get to you just around the corner.
Dale, just about 30 seconds quickly. Realtors and mortgage brokers, where are we right now in terms of the number of both of them versus where we have been? Are we seeing elevated numbers right now?
Yeah, we're at the highest we've ever seen in both those numbers and no question about it. Wow, interesting. Well, still a great opportunity, as Dale said, especially if you can get connected with somebody who could serve as a mentor in one of those two professions.
A lot of flexibility and a great job to have, but make sure you do your homework. Dale Vermillion, along with us today, he's our good friend and guest on mortgages and housing issues. He's going to stick around, so you do as well. We'll be right back. Delighted to have you along with us today on MoneyWise Live. Dale Vermillion here today answering your questions on mortgages and the housing market. Let's head right back to the phone. St. Cloud, Minnesota. Ian, thank you for your patience. Go right ahead.
Howdy, howdy. Me and my wife and I, our best friends, are thinking about, kind of getting excited about trying to get into the business of purchasing homes for flipping or potentially for renting. Now to give you, I guess, a little bit of insight into my life context. My wife and I, we're fairly young and our friends are too, so we don't have a huge amount of cash at our disposal and we own our own home.
Now that being said, we don't have a lot of equity into it, so we wouldn't really, HELOC is not going to be a huge option for us, but we do have multiple potential investors that we know, that our friends know. My wife is a realtor and then I'm also, I am a remodel contractor, so we have kind of the skill set to operate it, but I was just looking for any advice you might have for us as we're thinking about and considering this. I love it, Dale. I'd love your thoughts. I mean, when a realtor marries a remodel contractor, you almost have to go into the real estate business. You really do.
It's a natural dovetail, no question. Look, I would say, here's the key. Start slow, okay? Start with one, get that remodeled, make some money on that one. You know, I've got a son-in-law who's asked for my advice on this and my daughter and did great on it, but they bought one, they did it right, they bought right, they had good solid renters in there, they did a little bit of work, they made a really nice profit and now they're getting to their second one and then they're going to be able to get to their third one. So as long as you go slow in this, you're going to be fine with the knowledge you both have, especially with your wife being in the real estate market and understanding that side of the transaction with your building experience. Great combo. Great.
Appreciate your call, Ian. Dale, what is the right amount of debt when you're getting into the rental business? So, you know, would you have a rule of thumb that says, here's when I know it's okay to go ahead and, you know, borrow for this next property? Do you want to have at least 50% loan to value on these rental properties or can you run that up to 80% like you would with a new primary home mortgage?
What thoughts do you have there? Yeah, I wouldn't want to be at 80%. I want to be at no more than probably 60 to 70% maximum. 60% is a good number to kind of use as a gauge on that. If you can build that, you've got plenty of equity to work with that's going to protect in that scenario. Do not go any higher than that.
And that'll ensure if you're 60% loan to value on these rental properties, whether it's one or more than one, that you've got good cash flow that should be able to service the debt and give you something to put aside for maintenance, not to mention taxes and insurance, right? Correct. That is correct. Yeah, very good.
All right. Well, obviously a lot of folks thinking about getting into the housing market, although these prices make it more challenging than ever. Evanston, Illinois. Hi, Rich. How can we help you, sir?
Oh, hello, Dale. Yeah, I'm glad to talk to you and your show is a blessing to a lot of people. Thanks so much for taking my call. So I have a mortgage. It's at 4% right now.
And of course, you know, the rates are so low. I get so many people asking me if I want to refinance. How do I know which company to pick? Which organization? Are there any factors that I should be aware of?
Yep. So you always want to get three different offers. And you want to talk to, you know, if you have a bank or credit union, start with them first or your current lender. That's always the first place to start. Talk to one mortgage banker and one mortgage broker, and then compare those three, not just on the offers.
They're probably going to be pretty close to offer. But who do you feel most comfortable with? Who's the most professional?
Who's the one that you feel has the most ethical approach? And if you happen to know somebody, for example, in your church that you can go out to, that's a great way to do it through a referral because you get somebody then you know you can trust going in. But at 4%, you're in a good position to lower your rates. I would recommend you do that. Very good. Rich, thank you for your call today. And I'll tell you what Dale is saying is so important, you know, for the largest transaction most of us will ever have. Just getting one bid is not enough.
We've got to shop it around and make sure we're getting the very best offer. And Rich, all the best to you in the days ahead. Our final caller for Dale today, Tyrone, is in Michigan. Tyrone, go ahead. Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my call.
Hey, I got a quick question. When we had inherited a home, but I sold my 50% and they use my 50%, you know, to try to help pay my debt now. But I don't want to use her 50% because I don't want to have her portion to go help pay my debt now. And she want to buy a new home but come to plan out instead of Michigan to your SSI with social security, disability or whatever. If she failed a home, she's living in the home but if she sell it, then she lose her income and her Medicare. And I was just trying to wonder how can she do that without losing her income and Medicare. A friend of hers said, well, she can do what you call a quick claim and kind of like sign it over to her and let her sell the home. That way she'll still maintain her income and her Medicare. Is there any advice you can give me on that?
Dale, are you familiar enough with this space to weigh in? You know, I think this is a legal question that I would get local counsel on that to talk about because there's so many state regulations that can come into play along with national and all the other things. This is something that I think you really need an attorney involved in that question. Yeah, and I think perhaps even the first step is to contact the Social Security Administration and just ask them to help you navigate this because clearly your income, if it increases, could make you no longer eligible for Medicaid and SSI. So you need to go into this with your eyes wide open, understand the implications, as Dale said. And SSA is great in terms of whether you set up an in-person meeting or a virtual meeting. They can look at the details and give you some really specific counsel about this issue so you understand the implications before you do it.
So SSA.gov is the place to go to learn more about this and to schedule a personal visit. Tyrone, we appreciate your call today. Dale, just as we wrap up here today, what final thoughts do you have for folks as they think about navigating the housing and the mortgage market that we're in right now? You know, we've talked so many times about be prepared and pray. Remember, Proverbs 24 3 says, by wisdom a house is built through understanding is established. You know, Proverbs 29, in his heart a man plans his course but the Lord determines his steps. So commit it to prayer, listen to the Lord, follow that, prepare, do everything you can on your end. You follow those rules, you're going to be absolutely fine.
Yeah, that's exactly right. And you've said a couple of times the goal is to get out of debt. I mean you even said as a mortgage broker, I'd encourage you not to take on a 30-year mortgage. Well, that's not something you hear very often from a mortgage broker but your end game is for people ultimately. A mortgage is a great tool and if you use it wisely and you've got an asset that's appreciating and you're not over levered, it's a good thing but the end game is to be out of debt, to be unencumbered, right? Yeah, I mean a great piece of advice is you should look at every mortgage and every purchase and ask yourself, could I afford this on a 20-year maximum mortgage term? That's an ideal term. It gets you out of debt much quicker. It builds that wealth faster. That's what I would recommend to anybody who can afford that.
Yeah, very good. And then finally, Dale, in terms of what we should be thinking about with the expense side, whether somebody's refinancing or just getting a first mortgage, what's reasonable in terms of the percentage of the total mortgage that you should be expecting to pay? Well, 25% is the debt ratio we talk about all the time on the show. You don't want to be getting higher than that. And expenses, no more than 2% to 3% to the mortgage company? That would be correct.
2% to 3%, 4% tops is a good number to look at. Very good. Dale, appreciate you stopping by.
That was Dale Vermilion, author of Navigating the Mortgage Maze. Stay with us. Much more to come on MoneyWise Live. We'll be right back. Thanks for joining us today on MoneyWise Live.
I'm Rob West, your host, taking your calls and questions on anything financial 800-525-7000 is the number to call. It's Monday, which means it's time for our market segment with our good friend Bob Doll. Bob is Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global Investments, where investments and values intersect.
You can learn more at CrossmarkGlobal.com. Bob, do you think there'll ever be a day on a Monday when you stop by and we say, there's not a whole lot to talk about? Doubtful. It seems like the last few Mondays we get the big swing. The only question is, is there a plus sign or a minus sign in front of that three-digit number for the Dow? Today, it was a negative sign, as you know. Yeah, I sure do. It was down over 300 on the Dow and so many things going on intersecting all at the same time.
It seems like a lot of this depends upon what happens with the latest variant of the COVID pandemic, because that's really going to be the driver of monetary policy, depending on how economies around the world respond and nations do as well. Would you agree? I do agree, Rob. It's part of kind of the tail that wags the dog, meaning that it's a bit of an emotional issue because we just don't have tons of facts yet. It's pretty clear that the variant is more contagious, but less onerous than the last Delta one that we witnessed. And so markets are generally, last week's big up move, assuming that more lockdowns and restrictions are few and far between. But of course, today, a little more concerned.
Yeah, yeah, naturally. As we look into next year, I mean, how would you gauge what we're seeing now in Q4 versus what we would typically see? And what does that tell us as we head into 2022? Well, we're obviously witnessing a Fed that is shifting from its major concern being fighting employment or unemployment, I should say, and is now fighting inflation.
That's a big switch. And I think markets still have more groping to figure out what that means. Needless to say, we still have a good economy and good earnings growth, but it's a lot slower than the last few quarters. So what's that going to mean for 2022? I think that's investor gains as well.
And of course, how fast does the Fed turn around and raise rates after they accelerate their tapering? So a lot of variables and they're not as positive as they were at the beginning of 2021. Not negative, but not uniform.
Yeah. Are you expecting volatility to remain high? Yeah, I'm just beginning my 10 predictions for next year, and one of them will have something to do with volatility. I think volatility will increase in 2022 over 2021.
And that's going to create more Mondays, like we talked about at the head of this call. That is lots of volatility in both directions, Rob. Yeah, no question about it. And then finally, Bob, bonds are going to continue to be a challenging area of the market as we move into next year as well, right?
Yes. People who own a 10-year treasury have lost money this year, although of late the treasury has done a bit better yield today going out at 141. My guess is a year from now when we talk, that number will be higher.
That is yields will go up and bonds will go down in price all across the yield curve. Interesting. All right. Well, we need to keep our expectations moderate, I guess, for next year, realizing we have some headwinds, but you're not seeing anything that would point to a recession or any kind of major economic problems on the horizon. Is that right?
No. Good way to summarize. I fully agree with that. Big sustained declines in stock markets occur when there's a recession.
We could have a short smack in the face that could be painful to live through, but it'll come back if we don't have a recession because in economic growth times, earnings go up and that's what moves stocks. All right. Very good. Well, listen, Bob, we won't talk to you until the new year. So Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and we'll see what the next several weeks hold when we talk again in January. Thanks. Same to you. All blessings. All right.
God bless you, buddy. That was Bob Doll, Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global Investments. Crossmarkglobal.com is where you can learn more. And as Bob said, he's pretty well known up and down Wall Street for his 10 annual predictions. We'll dive into those right after the first of the year and see what Bob thinks we have in store for 2022.
Again, Crossmarkglobal.com if you want to read Doll's deliberations. All right. Let's head back to the phones. We've got a couple of lines open. 800-525-7000. John is in Elgin, Illinois. And John, how can I help you, sir?
Thank you for taking my call. In your opinion, which is better in terms of a Medigap policy? Those that are rated attained age, issue age or community age rated? Yeah, well, you know, you might want to look for the community rated and issue age rated policies because even though the premiums are higher, John, they won't increase as you get older. And so, you know, I like that option for you. All policies increase premiums to keep up with the climbing health care policies, but some not as much as others.
So I would focus your efforts on the community rated and the issue age rated policies for that reason. Hopefully that's helpful to you, sir. We appreciate your call today. Kirsten is in Illinois as well.
Kirsten, go right ahead. I have a question regarding it kind of ties back to mortgage, but it starts with the Social Security. I'm a widow. My husband passed away three years ago and I have six kids that are at home. So I work full time outside the home. But just with the fact that, you know, the change in interest rates and whatnot, I was able to lock in when I purchased my home two years ago, a decent rate, 3.75.
But someone had told me who does taxes, but I'm looking for another opinion to verify or, you know, tell me, no, that's not true. As the kids get older, obviously I will lose the Social Security. But at what age is that?
My oldest, she will be 17 in April. And I'm looking to see if I've been putting, you know, chunks of money towards my mortgage. And I'm just basically what I received for Social Security is what pays for my mortgage. So I'm just trying to look ahead and see if I need to re-emertize because I'm not looking to necessarily refinance. I don't think I can get a great rate from times I've looked over the last year. But yeah, so that's kind of what I'm looking at.
Absolutely. And Kirsten, I'm so sorry to hear about your husband's passing. Thank you, though, for your call. SSA.gov will be a great resource.
And if you have questions about your specific situation, I'd set up a time to talk to them directly. But just generally speaking, Social Security benefits for your children stop when they reach age 18 unless they're full-time students in elementary or secondary education. In that case, it could continue until age 19 in two months.
So 19 years old in two months. Social Security no longer gives survivor benefits to children who are in college. So it's that 18-year mark, again, unless they're still in elementary or secondary education. The exception of that would be a disabled child where benefits continue.
There's no age cutoff for that. Is that helpful? I think so. And secondary meaning high school, correct? Yes. Okay. That's correct. Yeah. So beyond high school is no longer they don't provide benefits beyond high school.
That would be the secondary education. So appreciate your call today. Listen, I think knowing that as soon as you can and then planning on that, as you said, perhaps taking steps to right-size the budget, whether that is in fact a re-emortization or downsizing. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but obviously you want those numbers to balance. And if part of your income is going away, you need to deal with that accordingly. Our MoneyWise coaches would be delighted to help you as well. If you have questions, you want somebody to walk with you to set up a budget, just visit our website, MoneyWiseLive.org. And Kirsten, we appreciate your call.
We're going to finish today in Miami, Florida. Shalinda, thank you for calling. How can I help you?
Hello. Thank you. Um, my question is, hi, I will be resigning like, um, sometime in January from full-time position and as a teacher. So, but I currently have a 403b account, like with some money on it, but I have no idea, you know, what I could be doing with that.
Should I cash it out or sit it somewhere? Yes. What do you, what's the balance roughly Shalinda and that 403b? It's I've been working only two, um, about three years. So it's about like nine to 1,500.
I mean, no, not 1,500, 9,000 to 15,000. Okay. And do you have another job lined up?
I currently am trying to get like a part-time job, but I'm trying to go back to school. So, yeah. All right.
Very good. What I would say is if you were going to go to a job that offered a 401k or a 403b, I'd probably leave it there with your current employer, even once you separate until you get reestablished and then roll it into the new 401k or 403b, just to keep everything in one place, especially since there's a smaller balance, it'll give you one less account to keep up with. And then you'd start contributing to the new 403b as you move forward, setting aside something each pay period for retirement. If you're not planning on going back to work full time because you're going to school and you don't have access to a company sponsored retirement plan, then I would probably roll it out to an IRA with one of the brokerage firms like Charles Schwab or TD Ameritrade, perhaps Vanguard. And you could use one of the robo advisors as well, like the Schwab Intelligent Portfolios or the Vanguard Advisor. That would give you a low cost way once it's rolled into the IRA, which is not a taxable event, to deploy this money into an indexed approach to investing, which just means you're going to capture the broad moves of the market based on questions that you would answer so that the portfolio is built based on your age and risk tolerance and objectives.
But again, it's low cost. You'd be really well diversified and that could be a great way to go. So check out Schwab Intelligent Portfolios and the Vanguard Advisor as two options to roll that out. And Shalinda, all the best in your new endeavors. That's going to do it for us, folks.
Money Wise Live is a partnership between Moody Radio, Money Wise Media. Thank you to Dan Anderson, Amy Rios, Eric Tidwell, Jim Henry, the team making it all happen today. Thank you for being here as well. Come back and join us tomorrow. I'll be here, Lord willing. We'll see you then. Bye-bye.
Whisper: medium.en / 2023-07-09 12:05:22 / 2023-07-09 12:22:56 / 18