Ariel Epstein, Yahoo Sports Betting Analyst

Now joining us in studio, I've known her for I think like a decade and now she's a mega, mega, mega star. They call her the Prop Queen. She's a sports betting host and analyst for the Yahoo Sportsbook.

You could also watch her all the time on MLB Network and NBA TV. And that's Arielle Epstein. Arielle, how are you? I'm so great. Thank you for having me on. In person, nonetheless. First time ever that we're doing a show in person together.

That's right. I have seen you in person before back at the Barrett Sports Media Summit where Arielle was a big star and everyone wants to talk to you about the betting world. Oh please, you're hyping me up too much. Because now all this is, is just how can I win money? All these betting companies, a good time to be in it.

I had the wrong career choice, but they're throwing this ridiculous amount of cash out to all these people. The sports betting world blew up in the pandemic. I knew getting into it in 2019 that sports betting would blow up in the next 10 years, especially in New York. It was going to be so strict. I said 10 years probably is what we have.

It was almost not that the pandemic was a good thing, but everyone being at home, everyone just let their guard down. All right, we could embrace marijuana, legalize that in a bunch of states and then let's just embrace betting too. Everyone's doing it anyway.

So approve, approve, approve. People need to make money somehow. You have to be able to bet in New York because Connecticut and New Jersey were both legalizing it. I was driving from my parents' house in New York in Rockland County. We were driving across the border 20 minutes down the street to go to New Jersey and placing bets.

That's how desperate we were for entertainment. Yeah, my friends Sunday mornings would take the PATH train from my New York City apartment in Financial District. So like 10 minutes just so they could get in New Jersey. You'd have to walk up the platform.

They would go right outside the platform, place their bets, then walk right back down, take the train back, and they made it back for the one o'clock games. Alrighty, I got to get to some over-unders. I picked out like six or seven right here that are just intriguing to me. The Cardinals, I'm on the fence if they're going to make the playoffs this year. No DeAndre Hopkins the first six games of the season.

They just got the deal done with Kyler Murray. Their over-under, when I just checked a few moments ago, is eight and a half. That seems low to me, but I'm like an idiot.

I say it seems low and then I go, okay, I should hit the over and then the under will end up hitting. Eight and a half is that limbo area because Arizona is a team that they have so much promise with such great receivers. You've got DeAndre Hopkins.

You have Hollywood Brown. Now you're facing suspensions with most of your receivers too. How is the quarterback of the Cardinals, Kyler Murray, going to adjust throughout the season, having to distribute the ball to other weapons while he's figuring out the situation with his receivers who are suspended? I really like James Connor at running back. The second half of the season, he really showed up in the passing game and in the rushing game. He was great. He was a dynamic running back. He could really help Kyler Murray out if he stays healthy.

I like Arizona. The problem is it's a stay away from me in the win total because of the uncertainty at receiver, because of the uncertainty of the health at defense. In addition to being in one of the toughest divisions in the league, in the NFC West, when you have to go up against teams like the Rams who are going to be fully loaded, you have just a lot of really tough teams to go up against throughout the year that it's a stay away from me.

I'll give you another one. Now this team last year, Emron and Charlotte, the Panthers, they started 3-0. Then all the quarterbacks that they were playing got hurt.

It was a disaster. You bring in Baker. McCaffrey's only played in 10 games the last two years. This team last year, they won five games. They have a better offensive line. I'm not saying they're going to be great, but this could be a seven-win team. The over-under is at six and a half.

It's right there in that range. If everything goes right for the Panthers, they could be a nine-and-eight football team, but history's kind of shown not everything goes right for the Panthers. I don't mind the over of six and a half wins. Their quarterback situation could be worse. At least they have two quarterbacks that have started in the NFL before. It's not like you're thinking about San Francisco where if you switch over to Trey Lance, now you're questioning how he's transitioning to the NFL. I'm not concerned for the Panthers if they do have to make a quarterback switch because you have veteran leadership on the team. I also love Christian McCaffrey. He's up there at the top of the list for comeback player of the year.

I think he has the second shortest odds. The Panthers, they have their coaching staff back, and now it's okay. We have some consistency under head coach Matt Ruhle. Carolina over six and a half isn't a bad play.

Plus, I mean, week one you're going to get a revenge spot between Baker Mayfield and his former team, the Cleveland Browns, who don't have a quarterback. Sorry, Jacoby Bressett. Sorry, Josh Dobbs, but I'm just not relying. Big take. Gary Osteen does not like Jacoby Bressett, and you're not wrong. He was.

Listen. He started games in this league. He started games in the league. If I have to take a quarterback, I really would rather take Baker Mayfield, to be honest. Yeah, no doubt. So you bring up the Browns. They're so tough to bet if we were talking about this a few weeks ago. Now we know Watson's out the first 11 games, and if he stays healthy and goes to all of his counseling and all that for the despicable things he's accused of off the field, he'll get back. I think they have a bye so that it's week 13 up against the Texans. Their over-under is eight and a half. Are you crazy?

Isn't this like to stay away? Don't bet the Cleveland Browns. You've got to be out of your mind to go bet this win total.

I can't see in a division like the AFC North, where you have the Bengals and the Ravens, that the Cleveland Browns, who are going to be swapping off quarterbacks throughout the year. No, no. And you know that. You want to bet a period or you take the under? It's eight and a half.

No, I'm not. Here, if you want to bet this, bet the under. If you hate the Browns, like most of NFL fans do, bet the under for fun. I did it last year with the Jacksonville Jaguars, which I did actually really like. Their under of six and a half, it was my biggest preseason bet last year.

I have to admit, it's a lot of fun to bet an under on a team that everyone in football is going to be picking on throughout the season. That could be the Cleveland Browns this year while they don't know who they're putting it under center until Deshaun Watson comes back. And even when Deshaun Watson comes back, people are going to hate on Cleveland. He's not going to have enough time to help this team get over the win total.

He hasn't played in over a year. Stay away, or if you really want to bash the Browns, go bet the under and have some fun with it. So I'm learning something about Ariel Epstein, and I think you're exactly right to hate Deshaun Watson. I think you were exactly right a year ago to dislike Urban Meyer. You like to bet the teams that you just don't like and go, all right, let's see them really suffer and let's have them get the unders this year.

You have to look at the chemistry in the locker room. A team like Urban Meyer with the Jaguars last year. Yeah, he got off to a bad start when he was kicking the kicker, supposedly. Bad start in the preseason already.

Nobody seemed to like him. Then week one, which I already, of course, had the bet in. Week one, Urban Meyer doesn't use the running back James Robinson at all. He was my favorite running back through the first half of the season. Yes, didn't use James Robinson at all. I think he had 78 rushing yards max or 78 combined yards, total yards in the first game. And they were up against the worst run defense in football from the year before. It was a slam dunk bet on James Robinson to go over his total yardage.

Urban Meyer didn't use him. And at that point, I was so excited I bet that under six and a half because I was ready to root against the Jaguars for the rest of the year. Is there one bet still to this day that everyone has that bet?

I know where you're going with this and I'll say yes. That they made and it obviously should have happened or a fantasy bad beat. Like I always reference, I had Noah Fant a few years ago when they were going up. I think it was Tennessee they were going up against and that idiot Pat Shermer stopped getting the football. We had no fan on Super Bowl and I brought this up to him and he was like, yeah, I don't know what you want me to do. He looked like Gronk in the first half. In the second half, they didn't target him until the end of the game. Is there one bet all these years later that was a bad beat that you thought was just so avoidable? The best bet I have ever placed and didn't hit for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers line. Super Bowl? Super Bowl.

Do you know where I'm going with this? This has to be a defensive player? Yep. Was this a defensive player for MVP?

Yep. Because I had, I think I had a bet on either Shaq Barrett or JPP, one of them. You probably did JPP like a lot of other people. I didn't have either of those. I probably did Shaq Barrett because he came on the show, but it was one of those two.

Maybe. A hundred to one Devin White to win Super Bowl MVP. The linebacker for the Bucks.

I loved him. He had at least 10 total tackles in every playoff game he played in that year. He had 12 tackles, I'm pretty sure, in the Super Bowl that year. Had the game ceiling interception to end the game, end the Super Bowl. They gave it to Tom Brady.

Oh yeah. The first half Brady had was all the touchdown passes. He didn't even have a good Super Bowl. Ah, he had a good first half. That game was over at halftime. Tom Brady threw nearly three interceptions. MVP. Tom Brady should have had three interceptions in that game.

They called back two of them. Is this a Ravens fan just hating on, hating, hating on Tom Brady? No. It's not, nothing to do with Ravens fan. It has everything to do with a hundred. This is Terrell Suggs Jr. here. This is a hundred to one ticket on Devin White to win Super Bowl MVP. I had a hundred bucks on that thing. I was so, and the CLV, it moved to I think 70 to one. I was so pumped about it.

He so, when he, when he got that interception. You thought you won. I thought. You popped champagne. I really thought I had a chance. It was like when you probably had a party in Vegas, right? I didn't necessarily think I won, but I thought I had a chance. No.

And then it just didn't happen. No. Zach Gilchon, CBS Sports Radio IRL Epstein here with us. Here's one that I think is so low. This team has won back to back to back 13 game seasons. I know they don't have Devante Adams anymore. But the Packers at only ten and a half.

Yeah, I'll hammer the over on that one. I don't mind that over for Green Bay. It's one of those that they're going to be considering Devante Adams loss as a big one. But great quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, who's a back to back MVP, makes great receivers out of anybody. You have to look at all the Tom Brady teams in New England. And I'm not saying that obviously he hasn't played with some Hall of Famers.

Of course he has. There are some receivers that played with Tom Brady or Drew Brees that would have never been who they were without those quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers is going to do the same thing. Allen Lazard was really good last year. Allen Lazard is someone that Aaron Rodgers really liked. Oh, he loves him for a few years now. When I was working at NFL Radio, there was a few games early on where Lazard would join us after games that he would have. And they just kept on talking about the chemistry. This was a few years ago. So he's not going to be Devante Adams, but in that division and also in that conference, if Green Bay doesn't win 11 games, something had to happen to Aaron Rodgers.

I 100 percent agree with you. He went on like a Pancho Karma cleanse again or just a bunch of psychedelics again. Or the league suspended him for something. Yeah. Kansas City, 10 and a half. I know the division is impossible, but they should win 11 games. You're saying they should win 11 games. You like the under.

No, I'm not saying I like the under. I'm just not fading a team like the Chiefs who continuously shows up each year having 12 win seasons. Their division is just really tough to handicap right now. If anything, look to the teams below Kansas City for value because you're going to get really good value on a team like the Broncos in certain ways. You're going to get teams that are good. I mean, even Vegas people are looking at Derek Carr as a potential candidate for MVP as a sleeper pick. There's really good teams right now in the AFC West and I just have and the Chargers obviously too. I don't want to leave them out because you have another year under your quarterback, Justin Herbert, a second year under your head coach.

I just want to see this. I want to see how this AFC West plays out because right now I just have too many question marks. When I get to the Baltimore Ravens and I know you're a big Ravens fan and I'm not just saying this because you're here. I'm thinking about taking Lamar to win the MVP because I believe the Ravens are going to be in the playoffs. And if they're in the playoffs, we know that offense is all about Lamar Jackson. And I just saw that he's plus two thousand to win the MVP.

I'll put some money down on that. I've heard people ask me about Lamar Jackson winning MVP. He obviously wanted a few years ago. If the Ravens win the division, you've got to think he's up there on the list where I'm looking, though, because I'm not going to give you all my Ravens homer picks because I've never met the Ravens before in my life. Not one time.

Not one time. This is the first year and it's not Lamar Jackson MVP. I'll tell you what I bet for the Ravens. However, my MVP would have to go to the person that nearly beat Lamar Jackson out for it. Lamar Jackson's MVP year. And that was Russell Wilson. Now, Russell Wilson going over Denver 14 to one to win MVP. If the Broncos somehow beat the Chiefs for the AFC West, how do you not give Russell Wilson that award?

Knocking off the Chiefs for the first time in, what, five years? I mean, this division, Russell Wilson shaking it up. He's an amazing quarterback. He can air the ball out to receivers like Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy, KJ Hamler. Plus, he has one of the best up and coming running backs in the league in Javonte Williams. I covered him in high school, by the way.

Oh, really? He's from Wallace Rose. He went to Wallace Rose Hill High School. Nobody was recruiting him.

Not one person. His head coach, Kevin Motzinger, one of the greatest coaches I've ever met in the high school level. He went to all the different colleges in North Carolina, begged them to come watch Javonte Williams play. They watched him in the semis and then the state championship game. UNC in the state championship game was watching. Javonte Williams scored four touchdowns. At that point, Larry Fedora, the head coach at the time of UNC, says, OK, we're going to take you on a visit.

Stay in the Raleigh area. They kept Javonte there and they offered him on the spot. He was the valedictorian at Wallace Rose Hill, Javonte Williams. He was able to graduate the semester early and go to UNC to practice in the spring.

If memory serves me right, too, I always ask these bizarre questions around draft time. Tell me something that no one knows about you. I think he's a big piano player, too. Javonte Williams.

So valedictorian and then a big piano player. He also loves horses. Apparently he just spent his big money from the NFL on buying a horse. So, yeah, so that one. Maybe one the Kentucky Derby one.

Maybe. What's your Ravens bet? I just get a sense with you sitting here. And this did cross my mind because everyone's going to pick the Bills. People are going to love the Rams, the Bucks. Is it Ravens Super Bowl?

Is that your pick? Ravens Super Bowl at 22 to 1 is my fun pick. If I wanted to give it out to people, what I think really can win, it would be plus 145 Ravens to win the AFC North. There's no value anymore on the minus 170 over nine and a half wins. The Ravens were at 24 to 1 at one point to win the Super Bowl.

It went down to 22 to 1 when I grabbed it. Now in Vegas, where I was just in Vegas all weekend, 16 to 1 in some books for the Ravens to win the Super Bowl. This is a team that- Big push.

Big push. This is a team two years ago that was top three, top four in the odds for winning the Super Bowl. Last year they were really good with all those injuries until Lamar got hurt and Harbaugh went for two like every game.

Well, Harbaugh went for two for every game because everyone talks about Lamar Jackson being hurt. No one talks about the entire secondary being hurt, including their interceptions leader Marcus Peters who didn't even make it to game one. Now the Ravens had to go for two because- They had no bodies. They had nobody. They had no left tackle. They had no running backs. It was a disaster last year. Harbaugh, when the coach admits it after the game that he didn't trust his secondary to go to overtime, you know that there's no other option but to send your offense led by Tyler Huntley at quarterback out there.

This team was still in the second to last game of the year in the playoff hunt. Ariel Epstein here with us. Coach of the year.

I looked at this book and I was surprised this was the answer because this was my thought and I thought I was ahead of the game. Because for these bets, I look at everyone that's getting bashed and I go, okay, if everyone's bashing one person, that guy usually has a good year. I think this team's winning the AFC West. I like Brandon Staley a plus 1400 for coach of the year. They win that division. Just like you said, Russ wins the MVP wins that division. You have to get an MVP. The Chargers win that division. He's got to be coach of the year.

Yes, for sure. However, I looked even further down the list at someone who's a Hall of Fame head coach. Forty to one, Mr. Bill Belichick. Really? Mr. Mumbles is 40 to one?

Forty to one. Now you know me. Even though I'm wearing purple today, I'm not a Ravens fan. I'm a crazy Patriot fan. I knew you would like it.

No, I don't. Here's why. That offense. I like Mac Jones. I think the receivers are okay.

The line's good. Like they have pieces on the offense that I like. You have Matt Patricia calling the plays and then if that doesn't work out, it's Joe Judge.

That's a concern to me. It's worked out in the past for them. Yeah, they had Tom Brady. They don't have Tom Brady anymore. You're talking about a Patriots team that last year finished one game behind the Buffalo Bills in the division with a rookie quarterback. They had the top, they were top ten in points scored, top five in points allowed. The defense was so good.

The offense stayed in games. You guys, first game between, I shouldn't say you guys. You're not part of the team. Patriots and Bills.

No, it's okay. I'll keep you apart of the team. Patriots and Bills. The Patriots were right in there with the Bills in that first game and I just see year number two, another year in the system. Mac Jones wasn't even supposed to start last year.

It was supposed to be Cam Newton. Forty to one for a future Hall of Fame coach who hasn't won the award in 12 years. If he beats the Buffalo Bills for the division in some miraculous way and they have a great season, it's not bad. I just, I'm not going to bet the coach of the year market to be honest.

That's why I'm having a little fun with this. How about rookie of the year? I like Chris Olave at plus 800 and then... That move. It's so tough to bet a running back because, especially when you have other running backs on the roster too and you never know how the carries you do. A guy has a fumble week one that he doesn't play for three more weeks. James Cook in Buffalo, plus 1400.

A lot of weapons there, but... I really like the Olave pick at eight to one. Olave going to New Orleans, has an arm in Jamis Winston who's going to throw the ball. I mean, this is a quarterback that threw the ball more than anybody else when he was healthy. Just to the wrong team. Yeah, but he still threw the ball more. He had the most passing yards and the most interceptions. Same thing. Michael Thomas is a wild card. Sure. I would love for him to be comeback player of the year.

There was decent odds past, it was longer than ten to one. However, he's a wild card. I don't know what his brain tells him to do. Does he want to play? Does he not want to play? I have no clue.

I'm not trying to guess. If there's no Michael Thomas, Chris Olave has a chip on his shoulder. He was the one on all the magazines for college football heading into last year. Then this year gets drafted second out of the Ohio statewide receivers. He's so fast. I mean, he's broken a million records at Ohio State.

He was one of the touchdown leaders at Ohio State. I really like Olave at eight to one. Alright, let me get your thoughts on two more teams. Raiders at eight and a half.

You take the over? Why do you love the AFC West so much? Because that's the division that everyone's going to be talking about. And all those teams, I look at it and I go, they're going to be really good. And one of those teams are not going to be as good as what we think. One of those teams is going seven and what, ten? No, I actually would rather go to the Cincinnati Bengals. Can we go there?

Yeah, sure. I want to go to the Cincinnati Bengals. That means Arielle doesn't like my Raiders selection.

She doesn't want to touch that game. I'm not touching any of the win totals in the AFC West. I want to go to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North because there's a trend with all these Super Bowl runner-ups. The Super Bowl runner-ups in nine of the last ten seasons have had at least one less win than the year before. That means that the Bengals go down from ten wins to nine this year. Only one team has ever had in the last ten years more wins than the season before after they were Super runner-up and that's the New England Patriots with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

Scratch them. Every other team who's an average team, a normal team that wasn't the New England dynasty, has had at least one less win and the average is three less wins. Cincinnati regression spot, sign me up for the trend. I'm going under nine and a half wins.

I'll get to a team that you hate but I know you don't hate in terms of making money. Steelers, seven and a half. We don't know who's even starting so it's tough.

It should be Kenny Pickett and I think it will be Kenny Pickett but everyone talks about this Mitch Trubusky fellow who I just can't absolutely stand. Steelers at seven and a half. Do you touch that yet? No. Again, I'm not going to bet anything that's uncertain. I'm not betting on teams that I don't know who's quarterback, especially quarterback.

Other positions, sure. When I don't know who your quarterback is, especially if I feel like you're going to switch your quarterback, it's why I'm not looking at San Francisco. Thought San Francisco's number was low too.

Yeah. Except there's a good chance if Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't look good because if you look at his stats for each season, every other year Jimmy Garoppolo flops. So last year was good year.

This could be bad year. If you're going to switch to Trey Lance or if he's going to have in the back of his mind Garoppolo that Trey Lance is coming in, I don't want to touch that win total. Now you're throwing a rookie in?

Same thing in Pittsburgh. Now you're throwing a rookie in? The only trend that you could back with Pittsburgh is that there's been many times where Ben Roethlisberger has not played majority of the season, yet the Steelers still finished above.500 under their head coach Mike Tomlin. He's got that streak of what, 15 straight years or something?

Yeah, he's never had a below.500 season. Right. If you want to back that trend, then you bet the over seven and a half. Otherwise, for me as a smart bettor, I stay away from uncertainty.

Okay. Now one thing we know that you're very good at is giving out props. I know I can't ask you for any props right now. We don't even, well maybe you probably look ahead at the props already for week one. But what's your advice on props to NFL fans this season?

Props to NFL fans, especially early in the season. You probably can look for the rosters. See if the rosters on defense are about the same as last year. Take some of those teams that were really bad. Take those bottom five teams.

The teams bottom five against the run, bottom five against the pass. Go find those receivers and running backs and go back those. Also, stay away from passing yards props.

Those are so sharp. Go to pass attempts props. Pass attempts props are a lot more fun to bet on. Pass attempt props. I don't think I've ever betted pass attempt props, but that's why we go to you. Pass attempt props.

I love those. Players like Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Jameis Winston. The players that you know, obviously I know Big Ben retired. I'm not dumb.

Just those kinds of players always tend to throw the football, especially if they don't trust their run game. You can look for those. Make sure you follow her on Twitter, at arielupsy. Is that the same on Instagram too, at arielupsy? I'm very epsed on Instagram where I can't get verified.

Thank you very much. Come on Instagram. I could sit here and bitch about not being verified on Instagram.

I don't really care. Arielupsy needs to be verified on Instagram. I've got to wait 30 more days now. You could attach this segment as a link to give my endorsement, which they'll probably say, who's this bozo on the radio? Wait another 60 days now.

They may tell you to wait three years. So give her a follow on Twitter and Instagram. She's the propqueen arielupsy. Ariel, great to have you in. Thanks so much.