Smiling In The Face Of Danger

Hey everybody, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show. On this hour, we break down how the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives are rallying behind the president and why that's actually important. Then we welcome Rich Barris, pollster extraordinaire who's just been added to 538, whose polls have just been added to 538, to talk about does a conviction really matter or not. We also go through the Senate, we handicap that, and then we go to the blue wall.

We turn our attention to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and I make him handicap which state is the most likely to fall of the three. It's a very, very important episode. It's a very, very critical conversation that has wide-ranging implications on November. You're not going to want to miss it.

Rich is the best. Buckle up. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks. I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

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Register now at tpaction.com. You know, I woke up this morning and my six-year-old had a tough night, so I didn't get much sleep. So I was up actually really early and I'm looking at the news.

I'm going, this is kind of a slow news day. And then by about five, six in the morning, yeah, I was up early. I realized, well, boy, this day is heating up and there was a lot to get to.

So just lay the, lay it out for you. We've got primaries that happened yesterday. There's big news on that front. We also have Michael Cohen is going in for cross-examination again. And then we've got this Harris-Buckert story that we played during the cold open on Real America's Voice.

It was, it's a crazy story, a phenomenal story on some level. True modern day persecution. We have, again, Michael Cohen, we've got the House Freedom Caucus along with Matt Gaetz, who's not technically in the Freedom Caucus, out front of the New York trial, speaking out on behalf of the president. I love how this is becoming a pilgrimage for the defenders of Donald Trump.

And you're seeing people rally behind him in new fresh ways, which is really exciting. This kind of activity should have been happening a long time ago. And actually let's start there. Let's start there. And I'm going to start right here with a turning point alumnus that would be Rep. Ana Polina Luna out of Florida.

Let's go ahead and take 123. This just happened. A member of the House oversight who's a Democrat prepared, calling for his testimony, is also retainer by the judge's daughter as a client. Does that seem like it's not shame to you? It is corrupt lawfare. It's the Biden prosecutions and Biden, you're going to lose this election cycle. Rep. Luna bringing it. I love that. Let's go ahead and play cut 124.

I've served all over the world in Africa, the Middle East and South America. And this is the type of country, those are the types of countries where they weaponize the judicial system against their political opponents. Maduro weaponizing judicial system in Venezuela against Guaido.

Every prime minister of Pakistan knows if they lose to the other side, they're going to get put in jail. Is this what we want America to become? This is what we're becoming. So when we do this sort of song and dance in DC, or we write the strongly written letters, or we give the fire one-liners from our congressmen and congresswomen, there is a temptation for even us on the conservative side for our eyes to glaze over. Let me explain why, what you're seeing outside of that courthouse. And again, it started with Ken Paxton.

People need to remember Ken Paxton was the first to make the pilgrimage to New York in defense of Trump, the show trial, Kafka show trial. And now we saw JD Vance, Byron Donalds. Today you have the whole house freedom caucus.

You've got Bobert Gates, Ana Paulina Luna, many others. Andy Biggs. I got a clip from Andy Biggs. Thank you, Ryan. Rick Scott. Why this is important is because it shows that there is a seed change in the conservative movement. Shows like Bannon, shows like the Charlie Kirk show, Jack Pessobic, which follows this, are building up a reservoir of courage and strength within the conservative movement that it has lacked for decades. This is them saying, yeah, our guy might be sitting in a courtroom, but we got his back.

It's called backbone. And yeah, the Republican party needs to stop writing strongly worded letters and get to some real action, get some real results. But guys, right now, keeping the regime on the defense, keeping the messaging out front, making sure that those clips go viral, making sure that the average American is just trying to get to work, get his kids fed, get them to school, understand what's going on right now in New York City, the civilizational defining attack on our democracy that's coming from the left, not the right.

They projected onto the right. They need to know that this is happening. They need to be bombarded with it time and time and time again. You might get distracted. You might get discouraged. You might get to the point where you don't want to hear this anymore. You want to see people in handcuffs and leg irons. I've been there.

Trust me, I've been there. But right now we have to deal with what is possible and what's doable. And this kind of message, this kind of support for our president is so important.

He's the leading contender to be the next president, 45 and 47. So in the past, the Republican party would have run. They would have tried to take care of their own backside. They would have hemmed and hawed.

They would have hedged. Not any more. And we have much work to do.

And Turning Point is doing a lot of work. You know, it's funny, Charlie and I were laughing at this meme we saw this morning. And it was a two-by image. There was a left and a right.

It was a meme. And on the one side, it showed that, you know, it asked the question, what have progressives actually progressed? It's such a regressive party.

But on the other side, it said, what if conservatives really conserve? Both are true, sadly. And we understand what it's like to be disappointed with our party. We understand what it's like to be let down. Trust me, we live this every day. There are more days in this movement where I scratch my head, and I just feel totally ticked off at how feckless our leaders are. But we are changing that. And when you see a whole group of them go up and say, I don't care that the city of New York is trying to, you know, throw the book at our former president, the first time in American history that that type of step has been taken. They crossed the Rubicon. But they did it for such a crappy case.

Pardon my French. They did it for this guy, Michael Cohen, a proven liar. They did it for a Soros-backed DA, Alvin Bragg. They did it for this president, who is abysmal.

His record is so terrible that you cannot put lipstick on this pig. They threw our nation into turmoil for all the wrong reasons, backing all the wrong guys. And so thank God these people are in New York. Thank God that they have the courage and the backbone and the spine to fight back and to push back and to do it earnestly. Yeah, I'm sick of the strongly worded letters, too. But everybody in America needs to see these clips.

Everybody that hasn't seen them yet, because there's millions of them. And you better believe the mainstream news media is not going to at all do this work for us. We have to do this work for us. We have to fight over the narrative. We have to have a patriotic reset in this country.

And we have to have people with courage, with fight. We've gone over the whole Speaker Mike Johnson thing. Listen, disappointment after disappointment, betrayal after betrayal.

We get it. But guys, I want you to take heart that the movement is coalescing around President Trump. The Never Trumpers are on the ropes.

They're switching over this Israel deal. There was an article last night from The New York Times saying Wall Street is warming to President Trump. They don't necessarily like him, but guess what? They can read patterns. They can see trends. They know that Joe Biden's been terrible for their business.

So guys, there's a lot to be grateful for and positive about. Look, for over 10 years, Patriot Mobile has been America's only Christian, conservative wireless provider. When I say only, trust me, they are the only one. Patriot Mobile is a proud supporter of the show and I am proud to partner with them. Patriot Mobile offers dependable nationwide coverage, giving you the ability to access all three major networks, which means you get the same coverage you've been accustomed to without funding the left. When you switch to Patriot Mobile, you're sending a message that you support free speech, religious liberty, the sanctity of life, Second Amendment, our military veterans and first responder heroes.

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Check it out right now, patriotmobile.com slash Charlie. There are things we can say that President Trump is unjustly not allowed to say. This is a corrupt judge. These are corrupted witnesses. This is a corrupt prosecution and so we're going to keep speaking out against this. We're going to keep fighting against this, whether it's Michael Colangelo who went from the DOJ to New York City, whether it's Fannie Willis, his boyfriend who billed the taxpayers of Georgia for time up here in New York City colluding with Department of Justice. We are President Trump's voice. We have his back.

He will ultimately be proven innocent. That's Reps Matt Gaetz and Bob Good defending the President outside of the New York City courthouse. Now again, some people might say this is kabuki theater. I get it. I get it. I want real actions.

I want real results too. I do. But the bottom line is we have to keep messaging this.

We have to keep messaging this. They are Trump's voice right now. We are Trump's voice. All of you are as well because ultimately what's happening, even the naysayers will admit this is a sham show trial. This is an utter sham. They want you to get fixated on the fact that Michael Cohen is alleging such things.

They want to get you fixated on salacious details with Stormy Daniels. None of that matters. None of this would have been brought against anybody besides Donald Trump and we know that. So thank you to the congressmen and women who have the courage and the backbone to defend our President and the leading candidate for President in November, Donald Trump.

All right. The other big story that came out this morning as I'm sleep deprived, my kids didn't let me get any sleep last night and I'm looking, oh my gosh, this day is heating up. We have now found out that this, the transcripts, Robert Herr transcripts, they've been looking for the audio recordings. Joe Biden is now officially invoking executive privilege to block the release of his interviews with special counsel Robert Herr.

This is a really amazing development in this story and I'll explain why. So Joe Biden was basically, he had to sit with special counsel Robert Herr about his mishandling of classified documents. By the way, documents that he took out of the White House when he was vice president, he did not have authority to declassify anything.

So instantly the case is distinct from the Jack Smith case, the documents case in Southern Florida. President Trump had the right to declassify documents. Joe Biden didn't.

So that's one. But number two, special counsel Robert Herr declined to prosecute Joe Biden because he was feeble, because he was an elderly old man who couldn't remember things. So we have the transcripts, but we don't get to hear how Joe Biden said stuff. We don't get to hear how much he has declined, especially when he's not shot full of, you know, whatever he gets in the nether regions and those B-12s and the Adderalls or whatever they're giving him.

So when he's sort of behind the scenes, what does he sound like then? And what are they hiding? Here we go. Rep. Van Drew asked the same question.

Let's go ahead and play cut 122. Well, we do have the transcripts. So why do you care so much about us getting the audio?

What's the big deal? Was he competent? Did he know what he was doing when he made this deal and used these papers to make money on the presidency?

That's what we need to know. We need to know if we have an incompetent, incoherent president or if we have a president that is being helped through the two-tier system of justice again, just like they tried to help his son. So again, listen, I'd love for Joe Biden to be impeached. I'd love for Mayokas to be impeached and actually removed.

Both of those were long shots at this end. Let's just be honest. But what this does is it makes the regime, the administration, look awful.

They look weak. Even yesterday when Joe Biden was trying to act like a tough guy by saying, hey, bring it on, Donald. Let's do these debates. He took the bait that Donald Trump had laid for him.

He sprung the trap. He has no record to run at. Now, a lot of people are wondering if Joe Biden has some ulterior motives with the debate.

I'm of the camp. He has no record to run on. He looks weak again, hiding a transcript because we know, you know, we all know that the reason he doesn't want that thing getting out is because he sounds like a feeble old man who can't be held culpable for his crimes. There is no other possible explanation, but the White House is spinning it. They said the absence of a legitimate need for the audio recordings lays bare your likely goal to chop them up, distort them and use them for partisan political purposes, White House counsel Ed Siskel wrote in a letter to Republican House leaders. Demanding such sensitive and constitutionally protected law enforcement materials from the executive branch because you want to manipulate them for potential political gain is inappropriate. Well, I'm pretty sure we've seen documents get mishandled and manipulated for partisan purposes from this from this White House.

Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here. Another day, another breaking news story buried. They'd rather talk about everything else than what's really going on.

It's not because they don't know what's happening. The media pundits and talking heads just don't want you paying attention. The real stories. You have to look behind the headlines for them.

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My patriot supply dot com. Without further ado, Rich Barris, welcome to the show. Yeah, I said thanks for having me back as always.

And it's always a pleasure. Rich, I'm going to start with the good news first. You just got added, your poll, Big Data Poll just got added to a rather well-known polling site, Five Three Eight. I know you've had your disagreements with its former, I don't know if he was the founder or the editor or whatever, Nate Silver, but he's gone now. Five Three Eight has taken Big Data Poll. It's a big move. Congratulations.

And thank you. You know, it's a long time coming, Andrew. Honestly, it's a long time coming. That was a dirty move Nate Silver polled on us, you know, back in the day, years and years ago, you know, which regardless of what, you know, if you're a leftist, then you follow polls in Five Thirty Eight, it's like a Bible to you, right? But you know, they do have some influence.

So doing what he did, I don't know, Andrew, I mean, out of jealousy, I don't know what it was, you know, so I'm glad to see they did the right thing. They joined Decision Desk, who's always had our backs. They have always had our backs.

And yeah, I mean, if you want your model and your average to be more accurate, then the best thing you could do is add the more accurate polls. And we have been. So it's, it's a victory. Yeah, congratulations. Well deserved.

Well deserved, my friend. Okay, so I want to get into that, you know, we're talking about Michael Cohen, New York, I'm gonna get to that. And then I'm gonna get to the primaries that there was some results yesterday that we need to get into. But okay, let's, let's just play this out. So total sham show trial. We know that.

But it's New York. He gets convicted. Trump is convicted of whatever the crime is that they're they're alleging happened that didn't happen or whatever.

What does that do? There's there's polling that says from ABC episodes, 80% will continue to support him. But 16% said they will reconsider and 4% say no longer support him. Is this what this what you're seeing? Is it accurate?

Rich? It is an Andrew and I'm going to tell you why I'm going to go ahead and agree with Obama's pollster who told see before I believe is the name of that site, that if you believe that if you believe those numbers, then you're either believing Republicans who are lying to pollsters or you're lying to yourself, because we just live in an era where that's not going to happen. Look, and by the way, there's been other reputable polling from the Wall Street Journal, which is jointly conducted by Tony Fabrizio and a leftist that basically say that Trump has a popular vote lead something we never thought he would have. And if he was convicted, then we were looking at more like a Biden plus one, you know, ballpark there. That's not enough for Biden to win. We look if Joe Biden was convicted of a crime and ran for president 20% of Republicans 15% I mean, if Democrats 15% of Democrats Andrew would not vote for the Republican candidate, we live in that kind of a country.

And it doesn't those questions are incredibly misleading. And if so, by the way, just to take a trip down memory lane. They did this during the impeachment as well. They're also the poll that morning consult touted in 2016 after the Billy Bush tape came out that said 22% of Republicans in Florida are going to vote for Hillary Clinton because of the Billy Bush tape at the end of the day that did not happen. So again, and by the way, in the case of the impeachment that did not happen, right? What happened?

Donald Trump became the sitting president to get the most votes ever, ever in history. So yeah, I just I don't buy them. Those are questions people know the quote, correct response when you ask them.

They're very bias injecting, and they don't encapsulate the whole story. I think you're right on that, Rich. I think you're right on that.

So let's say and by the way, this is I started the show with this. This is why, you know, mainstream Republicans getting out calling a spade a spade. The sham trial in New York is very important. The voters that might be a little bit squeamish that might be like, Oh, well, he's, you know, now now the press is just gonna say convicted felon, Donald Trump, convicted felon, Donald Trump. That's all they want. They're willing to throw the society into chaos just to get those two words attached to his name.

So that's why all of these people making the pilgrimage to New York is so important. So okay, that I said my piece, I want to go to Washington Post. Let's reflect on the primaries from last night. Republicans chances at winning the Senate has just skyrocketed. Okay, what happened now? So I mean, I'm gonna just be honest, I'm not a huge Jim Justice fan.

But Trump got behind him endorsed him in West Virginia mansions retiring. It's probably going to be a pickup. Am I right? That's I mean, yeah. And the truth is, I mean, I don't know why that that was a surprise to them. The Senate Republicans would be Andrew, they can screw up an opportunity like nobody else, the Republican Party, but they would really, really, really have to bomb this one to not win control of the Senate.

The only question was ever and the only question ever was by how many seats and we expected Jim Justice to win this. So I don't you know, they act like you know, they just fell off the turnip truck or something. You know what I mean? This was but I understand where they're coming from. It's just that I think that West Virginia is is a goner for Democrats at this point. Even the Joe mansions wouldn't survive it.

You know, they just can't. Right. So let's turn our attention. So I think we Okay, that gets us to 5050. Right, rich. So let's get our attention to let's turn our attention to Maryland.

All right. This is where we've got Larry Hogan now is going to be going up against Angela also Brooks, the Democrat who beat Trone, right, who spent $60 million of his own money. So go ahead and throw this polling up 138 guys this image.

So this is concerning to me when we're getting into it. So you know, if you go back, even as recently as April 7 through the 10th, opinion works had Hogan 5436, Goucher College 4440, that you know, 5036 and so on. But more recently, Hogan is polling behind the Democrat opponent, Angela also Brooks, what are you seeing in this race does, you know, our audience obviously is not going to be big Larry Hogan fans. He's kind of that never Trumper Republican. But let's be honest, Rich, this is this is this is a blue Maryland. He's probably our best hope of picking up an hour out of Maryland. What's his chances as we come down the stretch in the general, there are a lot more races that need more attention and more money than Maryland's I'm sorry, but this is I've been warning people for months. This is fool's gold. Even when we saw these polls that were insane.

I think Spencer over at Emerson is dead right. I think that's probably the status of the race. You were looking at a popular governor with name ID in some early polls before people were really locked in on the Democratic nominee, just benefiting from that name ID and being a popular governor. However, governor races as I tried to tell team DeSantis and all the influencers throughout the primary season, popular governors do not translate into national office strength. So if a governor decides like Bill Braden, for instance, thought they everyone thought that he could beat Marsha Blackburn, because he was a popular democratic governor in a southern state.

That did not happen. But you have these fools and I'm sorry, I don't mean to be brutal here, but I'm going to be brutal. You have these fools in the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the McConnell team, they're stupid. They're not smart people.

They waste millions and millions and millions of dollars, tens of millions, hundreds of millions, every cycle, trying to understand the map and what is worthwhile to spend money on and what isn't. And Maryland is again, I just I'm telling you, I think it's fool's gold. I do. Larry Hogan's going to be beat by the PVI. Yes, which is the partisan voting index. But of course, so if you're if you're you're basically saying Rich, governor is local people can actually the voters are smart enough to detach that from a national race. But when you have a presidential race, especially when you're you're voting on federal offices, like US Senate, that's right, tie it to the national race, the presidential race.

That makes sense. Alright, so let's go to Arizona, Cary Lake, Gallego. There you go. I'm just saying like it's 40 years of research here. I mean, did it all when Tip O'Neill said all politics is local, Andrew, that's what he was talking about good, you know, there's been Republican governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, they could never win a Senate race. Well, yeah, I mean, listen, if I was a moderate, I could want I could see myself wanting to sort of, you know, create a hedge to the national trend locally and vice versa.

I mean, it's not my way, but I can at least get behind the logic. Right. Cary Gallego, Cary Lake Gallego in Arizona. This is one where I do think again, the partisan voting index will start to tighten. I do know of a swing voter in Arizona that could vote and did by the way voted for Donald Trump, but then voted for Mark Kelly. McSally was losing these voters by about three points when Donald Trump was stomping them by about 30. Cary Lake will have to work on dealing with those voters.

I'm not sure. They know her. She just has to be herself, but she needs to give them more attention. And I think that as we get closer to the election, there is a ticket split phenomenon that's happening here right now. But Trump is going to be there with her.

Andrew, he will help her. You might have heard Mike Lindell and MyPillow no longer have the support of their box stores or shopping channels the way they used to. They've been part of this cancel culture, so they want to pass the savings directly on to you by having a twenty five dollar extravaganza. When Mike started MyPillow, it was just a one product company. With the help of his dedicated employees, they now have hundreds of products and some of you may not even know about it. To get the word out, I want to invite my listeners to check out their twenty five dollar extravaganza, two pack multi-use MyPillows, just twenty five dollars. MyPillow sandals, twenty five dollars. Their six pack tile set, twenty five dollars.

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That is promo code KIRK at MyPillow.com, promo code KIRK. Okay, we got Montana. Got to pick up Montana, Ohio, Bernie Moreno.

Obviously we talked about Arizona. What is the most likely of the flip opportunities to actually flip in the Senate? So Bernie Moreno is going to beat Sherrod Brown. I mean, I would put him as a more than a slight favorite at this point after looking at what happened in the primary.

Yeah, I think that's a big deal. I mean, those were just that was the weakest performance Sherrod Brown has ever put on. And I think he would have been beaten in twenty eighteen if Josh, well, I don't think I know we were pulling the race.

Josh Mandel was ahead between seven and nine points in twenty eighteen. Unfortunately, he got out of that race. God, could you imagine the votes that Sherrod Brown cast that would never have gotten cast if he did not.

Instead, they put the vanilla Jim Renacci in there. And he's not that kind of Trumpy, populist candidate like Bernie is. He's a new MAGA era candidate doing a great job reaching out to not only the white working class there like the Ohio Valley, but nonwhite and Toledo, man, he crushed it in the primary. And Brown is so glad.

I'm so glad to hear that. And we got behind Bernie early. But by the way, they're coming after him. I mean, the stories that they're attacking his Colombian heritage and his his up from the bootstraps kind of story they're coming out.

They're trying to say he was on some adult friend finder or whatever, like, you know, basically cheating website that got completely debunked. So anyways, hey, so I want to switch our attention, Rich, to the blue wall. Okay, so yeah, you know, we're still we're still got our eyes on Nebraska second. So don't anybody don't anybody go anywhere on that. We're still working on that.

So just, you know, put a bookmark in it. But rich, blue wall plus Nebraska second is their strategies or best strategy right now. Yes. Wisconsin, Michigan PA now I was not long on PA. I thought PA was like a disaster zone. I'm hearing the Trump Trump camp is feeling very good about the internals are getting back from Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, Wisconsin's the dog What the heck you say Wisconsin is the hardest of the blue wall states to pull?

What? What's your if one of them is going to fall which one's going to be in the last two election cycles Wisconsin polled more democratic but voted more Republican and that's a Trumpy phenomena. In 2022, Ron Johnson was polling stronger than he performed because Republicans didn't have to get out the vote operation.

So Mandela Barnes put the you know, they put their backs into it, and then they got very close. But at the end of the day, go back and look at the polling from 2020 Wisconsin, there was some Biden plus 17 Biden plus 11. And meanwhile, even with the New York Times polling that just came out, Pennsylvania was the closest.

But it turned out not to be it turned out to be Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, then Michigan. The way that the realignment is happening right now, Andrew, Michigan in our polling is pulling stronger for Trump in many respects. But Wisconsin is tougher because unlike Michigan and Pennsylvania, it's much more rural. There's a lot different kind of constituency there.

There's no huge black population in an urban ghetto. Of course, they have Milwaukee, but it's much more sparsely populated. And then you have the Trumpy phenomena, which is what we call lumberjack country in the northwestern part of the state, where him and Johnson too, by the way, they get in the mid 40s in those counties low to mid 40s, right? Ashland, Bayfield, you know, up in the northwest, and Republicans normally get clobbered 30%. Mitt Romney got everyone, you know, Hagedorn got 30%.

So it's very tough to pull and you need to keep your eye on geography, education, and ethnicity. So I wouldn't be surprised. But Pennsylvania, I agree with the Trump campaign.

I mean, he's already in the low 40s, mid 40s in Allegheny County. And that's because of his strength among young, non white, particularly men. Yeah, I mean, it's real, Andrew. It's real. Well, there's no doubt.

So you think right now, you're gonna just handicapping it. You're saying PA is the most likely the blue wall to fall. You know, in history tells us that Wisconsin is but that's actually not what I'm saying is right now, because of the non white boat shift, it actually looks like Michigan is the polling the strongest for him. But in if past this prologue, that's how these three states work.

And I would just point this out. With the exception of the caucus in 88, Wisconsin bucked the trend and voted for the caucus over for Walker Bush. These states have voted for each other now voted with each other in each of the eight last presidential elections. And then if you skip 88, it's actually 10 because of the two elections with Reagan.

So I mean, normally some of the closer Andrew but one goes they all go typically rich. I was supposed to mention your polling project. So support the polling prize. Can they find that at locals?

They can and also just go to Big Data poll, check it out. Okay, support the public. See you next time. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. If what we do here on the show means anything to you, if you get something out of it, please consider joining our members.charliekirk.com portal that's members.charliekirk.com become a monthly subscribing member, get Charlie's weekly column that's made exclusively just for you. And behind the scenes footage, exclusive access to our ama's get on the radio, get access to our episodes without ads. We love our advertisers, but that's a nice little bonus. So please consider joining members.charliekirk.com members.charliekirk.com. Thanks so much talk to you soon. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust go to charliekirk.com.