Good morning, everybody. Welcome into the WinklerVerse.
I'm Bart Winkler. We are reunited with Ryan Horvat of BetMGM tonight. Good to see you, buddy.
Good to see you too. It's been a couple of weeks since we've done these picks. You know, as funny as this week- It's been like two months. It's been like two months.
It's been like two months, yeah. And what's funny is this week should be the week, if any week, we were going to take off because I thought I had the flu and I have like bronchitis, so I'm coughing up a lung every other minute. But I'm excited to do these picks.
I'm excited for this game. I saw, right before we started to record, I was on social media. I don't know why. And I saw the 49ers team account and I got pissed because they were, you know, tweeting about Green Bay and it was, I think the tweet, let me pull it up. The tweet was just, last time we visited Lambeau, it went well or something like that. And I was like, this frickin' team, three weeks later, you guys lost another Super Bowl in walk-off fashion.
You know what I mean? Like, that's what I don't understand about that team. Like, you have all the talent in the world and Green Bay was the youngest team, still is the youngest team in the National Football League. You should win that game, dude.
And you had that game at home. I get it's just like, you know, some random person working a fan account, but it got me so pissed off that I bet $1,000 on the Packers. Just based on the tweet? Well, I was already planning on betting Green Bay for like $500, but then that tweet, and I hate their fan base. I really do. Even most of the people, their beat reporter, I mean, I shouldn't say I hate their beat reporters or anything.
The beat reporters are fine. No, there's one guy that really blows, the athletic guy. There's like, and there's like certain people from like, I don't know, that just like cover, I just hate that frickin' team. You know, like, how do you like the 49ers, man? If you're a Packer fan, we hate that team. I don't, I can't even hate the Lions or the Vikings as much as I hate the 49ers. I don't hate the Bears as much as I, do you agree? I hate 49ers more than any team in our division. What do I care about Chicago?
Beat the shit out of them every time. What do I care about, I mean, I do hate Minnesota, don't get me wrong, but now they have Aaron Jones, so I don't hate him as much, and Sam Darnold, but I will hate them again soon. And then Detroit, I do hate Detroit. You know how we were talking about, oh man, it's hard to hate Detroit? Fuck Detroit too, and fuck Amenrah St. Brown, even though I'm betting him to have 100 receiving yards. When he came in with that Green Bay sucks shirt, I was like, screw this guy too. Green Space Bay, if you put it as one word, and how lame is that? If you're going to make a shirt for a game, make a good shirt.
Don't make a $10 Timu shirt. I hate the Niners too. We could start with that game. The Packers are a three-point favorite.
Afternoon window. You know, the Niners have dominated the Packers so much in the postseason that I forgot that the Packers have beaten them in the regular season in the last handful of years. I totally don't even remember it. I think the Niners are a team that we kind of flirted with talking about how they weren't going to make the playoffs this year, which is a take that I did say, but I wish I was more defined on it because they are not only injured, and that's catching up with them, but they are blowing games to teams in their division. Every team in their division they've blown a game to in the fourth quarter.
A couple even at home. And I think last year where Brock Purdy was like, oh, this team's carrying Brock Purdy, I almost think Brock Purdy's carrying this team right now because all these guys are either hurt or stuck. I do worry about some of these throws Jordan's making, but I do feel good that the Packers should be able to get a win this weekend. I like the Packers to cover. I don't know that they'll kill them, but I like them to win at least by the three. I think they win by a full touchdown. I think that they win this game.
I do. Now here's what scares me is Christian McCaffery. I bet him to have 125 rushing and receiving yards combined because it was plus 130.
He's going to be healthier. He's getting the touches. I worried a little bit about like maybe Jordan Mason stealing some of the touches, but he's only had three rushing attempts since he came back. It's not going to be freezing cold or anything like that, but I don't even know if Brock Purdy is going to play in this game, man.
He threw today again at practice when we were recording here on a Friday, and he couldn't even finish practice again. I don't even know if we're going to get Brock Purdy, so I think it's going to be a ton of McCaffery. That's again my concern about the Packers, their run defense. 25th in yards allowed after contact. After initial contact, running backs are averaging three yards per carry, 3.1 to be exact. They're the only team in the NFL with four linebackers who have played at least 115 run defense snaps, and Quay Walker's an issue. I went back because I've been sick and I have no life, and I watch every game because I just can't stand Quay Walker, man. I see some people trying to defend him, and I don't know how.
If you have eyeballs, how are you defending it right now? He has, and I know pro football focus isn't for everybody, but he has a 54 run defense grade, and I was like, I wonder where that ranks. 59th out of 66 NFL linebackers who have played at least 115 run defense snaps. He's got six missed tackles that I've counted. I went back and looked like where that would rank. 12th most in the league.
The Quay experiment is a failure. Let's stop it right now. They need to get better against the run. The reason I think they win is the Niners are beat to shit. I bet them two missed the playoffs and not win 12 games.
Seems like a great bet right now. Super Bowl hangover, ton of injuries. Like you said, Brock Purdie's played well. The problem is the offensive line other than Trent Williams stinks, and Trent Williams is old.
They paid him a bunch of money. Brock Purdie's been pressured on 40% of his drop backs. He's at his best when he's thrown from a clean pocket to all those weapons. I just think Green Bay is the healthier team. Leflore is never really good off a bye, so that's why I like the Bears to cover last week, but he's always good then the following week, and the week after that, and the week after that.
I think this is a good spot. Also, a revenge game. We should have beat them in the playoffs. Detroit should have beat them in the playoffs. The Niners are an overrated team, man.
Now, there's some turmoil, too. Deebo's beating the shit out of the long snapper on national TV. The fans are so...
I love football so much. Kyle Shanahan, I don't care what you say. I'll take Kyle Shanahan. He could come and hang out with us, right? Like Robert Salas, Bobby Salas, if they want to fire him, because their fans want him gone.
I get it. He gets too cute. He doesn't close games. Going all over the deck when he was calling plays, the 28-3 game in Atlanta, but I still think he's a good coach, man. Here's the angle that nobody's talking about, and I love the move, and nobody wanted to hear about it, including Sparky when I go on his show, Robert Sala. I was like, Robert Sala's going to help out so much with this BS defense, even though I do like Jeff Halfley. He was like, he's helping out on the offense.
I said, no, no, no, no. Bobby Sala is there for one reason and one reason only. The team that kicks the shit out of us in the playoffs every year and runs for a bazillion yards is who?
The 49ers. Who does Robert Sala know? Just like Matt Leflore knows.
Matt Leflore. I'm sorry, Kyle Shanahan. He was the defensive coordinator.
He knows exactly how to stop everybody on that. He was there with George Kittle and all those guys. I think that's going to be an angle that helps out. I think the Packers, like I said, home team, a little bit colder temperatures. We don't even know if Purdy's going to be able to play. I don't even know who the hell their backup is, man.
Yeah, I like Green Bay a lot in this game. Who is their backup? Sean Mannion? Actually, isn't he a coach with us?
Yeah, I think so. 49ers backup. Honestly, I know every team's backup. Yeah, he's with us. Sean Mannion's with us. Yeah, I know that. Every team in the league, I can name their backup except for, oh, it's Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs, man.
That's what I'm saying. Two dudes, two motherfuckers that shouldn't even be in the league. If we lose to Josh, I won't watch a game the rest of the season. If Jordan Love gets out-dueled by Brandon Allen, A, you never lose to a guy with two first names, and B, you can't lose to Josh Dobbs.
So, yeah. I like the Robert Sala angle. I think that one thing that bothered me last week with the Packers against the Bears was Caleb Williams and what they were able to do. Was it four for four on third downs or three for three? The Packers defense just looked like, it's not that they looked bad, it's that they looked stupid. Caleb could just do whatever he wanted and they would just run the football and it was annoying and excruciating and that would have been a dumb way to lose that game. But I just don't want the Packers defense. If they don't look stupid, I think they'll be fine.
Well, that's the problem, man. Going back to Quay, he has talent. That's why they drafted him. I liked Quay, too. I liked the picks.
I'm not ripping goop for that one. He's just not a high football IQ guy. I don't like calling people dumb. He could be smart as shit off the field. I'm not saying any particular person's dumb, but the defense played stupid. Football IQ is a real thing, though, man.
I love Justin Fields. Last week, he goes in that game and he slides a yard short of the first down. I'm like, what the fuck you doing, dude? You had an extra five yards. You got to know where you're at. Football IQ is everything.
That's why Aaron Rodgers fooled us all into thinking that he was a top five quarterback for 20 years. Just kidding. Just kidding. But he cost me a lot of money, man. Fuck him, dude. Yeah, well, I could have told you that. I like that. I didn't... Do you think he plays anywhere next year?
Yeah, because I don't think he's going to go out like that, but I think he probably should retire. But who wants him? Here's the thing. Minnesota? No. Tennessee? For what?
Sell tickets. It's Aaron Rodgers. Because here's the thing. Aaron Rodgers, when he throws from a clean pocket this year, you're not going to believe this, man. I think he's got like a 122.1 QB rating. Problem is that offensive line sucks and he's old and he's coming off a very devastating injury, so he's getting the shit kicked out of him. He can still make the throws and play, and the defense is bad.
Yeah, but they work good. I know I told this joke. What happened? Charles Gardner's got to change his name back to Ahmad. He's fucking terrible. That's like a lot of these guys. They all have one real shit year, though, these corners.
I mean, all of them do. Jair. When he's healthy.
Is Jair playing this weekend, by the way? I don't think he's going to. God. He's so unreliable. You know what's funny is that Ted was obsessed with drafting corners, always. I think we might have to go back to that, though.
I can't stand any defensive back on this team. You know those guys that sit at a bar every week and have a rundown of things in the daughter post, like, here's what the dads are talking about this week? Yeah, that was cute for three weeks. I don't give a fuck anymore. Well, her last one, and I don't know how I see it, but her last one was, is Jair the Packer's Chris Middleton?
And I was like, never healthy? Oh. Yeah.
Yeah, but the difference is that Chris Middleton was a pretty good player on a championship team, so I would forever love Chris Middleton. You know what I mean? Yeah.
Well, I like the Packers to win. Yeah. Chris Middleton ain't the problem with the Bucks. I mean, that contract might be the problem with the Bucks, but getting rid of Drew Holiday was the stupidest shit ever. I know how good Dame is, but- Dame is three for 28 from three in his last four games.
Yeah, you can't get rid of a guy like Drew Holiday. That's why the Boston Celtics are going to win another championship this year and maybe even next year. Tatum's a big puss. You know, Jalen Brown is good, but he can't dribble. They're going to win a championship because Brad Stevens finessed everybody, dude. Drew Holiday's awesome.
Derek White's awesome and has always been awesome. Porzingis is still really good. Remember, though, the Blazers traded Drew Holiday to the Celtics, not the Bucks.
It's important to remember that. Yeah, I don't care. I'm saying that you don't get rid of Drew Holiday ever. He wasn't the issue.
If anything, you let Middleton walk. Well, it's all hindsight. It's all well and done. All right.
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Wherever you are, you can pick it up in Muskego, but you can also order it from the comfort of your home. All right. Let's look at some of these other games. We'll start with the early slate. We got the Bears hosting the Vikings as a three and a half point dog. I kind of think the Bears get off the schnide here. I like Chicago. I love Chicago this week, dude. Love the Bears. Not quite 1K on this one, but a couple hundred on the Bears this week.
Wow. Good spot for the Bears. Bears should have beat us last week.
They got to win at some point. Let me ask you a quick question, because I know like rivalry, but we're getting old and I hate teams, right? Fuck teams. I don't hate players. Do you hate Caleb Williams or are you kind of cheering for him? Because Bears fans are dickheads. I don't hate Caleb Williams. Me either. I almost want him to be good.
This is the thing, right? My family, not so much my family, but all my friends in my dad's side a little bit, they like the Bears a lot, obviously. I'm in all these group chats and stuff. I love dominating them and shit, but I want him to be good again. As much fun as it was when Rogers was having his midlife crisis and screaming at their fans because we were just beating the hell out of them, it was a lot more fun when we beat him in the NFC Championship game. I was watching it at Double J's, a dive bar in Joliet, Illinois. I was just the only guy in a Rogers jersey. He played like shit and we still beat him. I was just talking so much shit. It's amazing I didn't get stabbed.
That's better in my opinion. You know what I mean? Like your high school rival, man. You don't want him to suck.
You want him to be good. You want to knock them out. That's where I'm at with pretty much everybody in this division except for the Vikings once Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones are gone.
Then F them. I like the Bears in this spot. I think they win outright.
I would take them on the money line. See, I really didn't want to lose that game because the more that you win, the longer the streak goes, the more euphoric Bears fans are going to be when it's over. I don't want to deal with that. Yeah. Yeah.
I mean, if our whole life it was like, okay, we split every year or whatever. If it was like Steelers, Ravens. All those Steelers kind of have the edge there.
They suck last night. I had the Browns. Did you like the Steelers in that game?
I liked the Browns last night. Okay. Yeah. I knew they were going to win that game too.
I didn't realize Tomlin is 0-6 Thursday night games on the road in his division. Yeah, dude. You can't win. No.
There's certain angles, right? Lamar's awesome is an underdog. Lamar, I love you. Sucks is a favorite. Mike Tomlin, best underdog on the planet.
He's like fucking Rocky. Mike Tomlin is a favorite. Not so much.
Not so much. How we looking? Cults are a seven-point dog at home against the Lions. It's hard to see the Lions on a fast track not dominate again. I think I'm going to take the Lions to cover. I think you're going to be wrong.
What Horvat logic can you have here? On the Colts? Yeah. I kind of like what I saw from Anthony Richardson last week. I loved what I saw from Anthony Richardson last week. I know you're going to say it was against the Jets, but he was pushing the ball down the field against the Jets' secondary, which is their one strength.
It was supposed to be against that pass defense. Defensive side of the ball was a mess, but since they got embarrassed by Jacksonville a couple weeks ago, they've actually been top 10 in every metric. I think they might actually be able to hold their own a little bit here. Everybody's going to bet the Lions in the over, right? I'll be the guy that takes some Colts here, plus seven and a half. I think Shane Steichen's a really good coach. The Colts, I think since Steichen's taken over, I think they've played in more one-score games than any team.
You'd have to fact-check me on that. I think it's a good bet. I like Indianapolis a lot. I got like five units on this one.
I hate to be that guy, but pretty big one for me. I'm going to combine the next two games here that I have because the Dolphins are seven and a half point favorites over the Patriots. The Buccaneers are six point favorites over the Giants. I think both of these teams sort of make a run. The Dolphins' schedule is a little harder, but the Bucks have the Giants, Panthers, Raiders.
It's shit. At some point, the Dolphins have to have a game where Tyreek Hill's like 10 for 200. I know that Drake May's been playing well, but I'm going to take both Florida teams, Dolphins seven and a half over New England, and the Buccaneers on the road, six point favorites over the Giants. I like both Florida teams to score a lot of points. Mike Evans is back. Giants actually, obviously, are starting Tommy Cutlets, who's only a thing because he beat the Packers. Remember that? Unfortunately, dude.
I like both Florida teams to cover. Actually, DeVito beat... Yeah, it was last year, right? He beat Love, right?
On Monday night. Oh, God. Love was bad.
That's when the agent got all the popularity. Tommy DeVito had that one roll out where he found somebody in the corner of the end zone, and it was a really good throw, and we're like, oh, fucking Christ. Dude, what's going on with Jordan in these fucking throws again, man? He's not hanging onto the football like Rogers would overhang onto the football, and now Love's underhanging onto the football. I'd rather have... I don't care. I know you guys all hate him.
I would rather have the version of Rogers that would hold onto the... The turnovers are going to kill us if you just take the sack. Well, the problem is, though, too, fuck it. I get it. Let it rip because it doesn't matter who the field goal kicker is.
He's going to shank it anyway. The Giants I hate, by the way. The way that they... I mean, Daniel Jones- My thing is, I think that you like the Patriots, and you like the Buccaneers.
No. I like the Dolphins. I think they may win by like 80. I think the Dolphins are back. I think they're going to beat us, too, on Thanksgiving.
I mean, not back. They're frauds, but I think they're going to go on a little streak here. I would bet them to make the playoffs.
I think that's like plus 300, dude. Other game, Tampa for sure. I love Baker Mayfield, and Mike Evans is back. I bet his receiving yards over 55- I think they're going to come back and win the South. Oh, dude.
Actually, hold on. I got my biggest prop bet of the year. In fact, I just actually text this to our good buddy Rick Camp because he gave me one. If anybody out there bets NBA, he likes Zubats to have three assists tonight, which is plus 230. He also likes them to have five assists tonight, which is plus 950. He's really good on these NBA props, Rick Camp. I'll play that one. I got $7 in my Fliff account.
We maybe do the five then, especially if you could get plus 950 or just, yeah, but the Zubats assist is a really good one. Oh, Isaiah Pacheco won't play too. That just popped up on my phone. Zubats plays for the Clippers? I thought that he did.
Let me check. I hate the NBA. I only watch the Bucks and the Bulls.
I'm like Team Midwest. Zubats, Clippers. Yep, he's still there.
He's a Croatian. I should know this, right? Oh, I don't think I can get alternate lines. Oh, and then for the Winkler-verse, guys, got one I love. Bucky Irving in this Tampa game, over 50 and a half rushing yards.
I would assume Tampa's going to beat the living shit out of, because here's my theory. I can get over four and a half assists at plus 1260. Shut up, really? On Fliff. Oh, play that, dude. Yeah.
I mean, Rick's awesome. Here's what he said to me. I'll just read it.
That would net me $100 on my $7 I have in there for free. He said, I got a prop I feel uncomfortably good about. I can't wait to see how it loses. The other night, he sent me Giannis against the Bulls, 35 plus and 40 plus. Wow. I mean, granted, it's Giannis against the Bulls, but the 40 plus. I'm taking Zubats over four and a half assists.
Yeah. And then for me, I'm going Bucky Irving against the Giants over 50 and a half rushing yards. I think Tampa's going to kick the living piss out of them.
Tampa is going to take their foot off the gas. Plus, just Bucky's awesome, and the Giants run defenses boo-boo. But the Giants playing Tommy DeVito, I hate, because then I got to hear people go, Tommy Cutlets, and do the fucking Italian shit. And it's, you know, yeah.
I mean, I get it. And I love the Italian. Shout out to Tony Soprano. I'm part Italian.
Me too. That's why I'm so offended. Because it's the one group you can still like, hey, I'm Italian. And no one's like that. Yeah, he's offended us, right? But here's my thing about Tommy DeVito. He's awful. He's dog shit. And he shouldn't even be in the league. And now we got to watch him on Thanksgiving.
We're trying to enjoy our food. But also, if you're the Giants, you obviously are just trying to get Chador or your quarterback here, right? Because if you want him to actually try to win any games, you'd probably play Drew Locke. Not that he's any good, but you're paying him $5 million. And you're going to Tommy DeVito. So yeah, I like both Florida teams too. We got the Florida Parlay.
Maybe we should just Moneyline Parlay them together. You want to? If you win your Zubats bet tonight? Oh yeah.
I'm not very interested in Zubats. Cowboys are 10 and a half point underdogs against the commanders. There was a fun little hour where the Cowboys had Daniel Jones listed on their website today as a player on their team. If he signs there and plays on Thanksgiving, that would save that game. Because that is such a shit game now on Thanksgiving.
We get Bears, Lions, Cowboys, Giants and Packers, Dolphins at night. Ten and a half points. Just seems high.
Yep. Too high. You have to take the Cowboys to cover. Yeah, I bet the Cowboys at 11 and a half.
I like this one quite a bit too. The commanders actually, man. Like the last month of the season. Sorry, Toby. It's not going very good.
Hillegary. I listened to his post game show the other night actually. He was with some- I'll be on with him tomorrow. He was with some former player. It was.
Listen into the former. Toby was awesome. I felt bad for him though.
I almost wanted to call in. The guy was like, it was like, you know how former players, there's some that are awesome. Like Collinsworth and Romo. I don't care what anybody. I like Brady. Where are you at right now? Where's your Brady meter right now? Hate or love? I ranked the top eight broadcast booths in the NFL last night and Brady and Burkhardt were not on there.
Really? I don't like their combo together, but I think Brady's getting good. I like listening to Brady.
I don't care what anybody says. He just needs to be more like, I'm Tom Brady. If Brady ran for president, I'd vote for him.
Well, I'd vote for a lot of these guys probably. Yeah. We're not going there. I was going to say, but Brady's getting pretty good in the broadcast booth, in my opinion. What the fuck were we even talking about now? I threw myself off here.
The Cowboys. I had a point that I had to make. Oh yeah.
Oh, oh, really quick. You know how some of the former players though, like they don't actually give you a breakdown. They're just like, and when you get kicked in the locker room, you can't stay down. You got to get back up.
Does anybody out there ever really want to hear that? Like I want to hear like how they get back up. Like do we got to start like, you know, running some like too high stuff. Do we got to maybe switch from zone demand? Do we got to fire the coordinator? Do we need more pre snap motion? Do we need more play action passing? Stop running the ball on early downs. You know, people think that you got to run the ball to be able to open up the play action.
That's bullshit. I like throwing the ball on early. But no, we got like when they're kicked, they're down. But anyway, Washington hasn't been good the last four weeks of the season.
All that to say, even the game against the bears, they should have lost. So I like the Cowboys. Cowboys.
Hey, here's one. Cowboys might win this game with Cooper rush. I wish it was Daniel Jones. I want to see Daniel Jones beat the Giants. That'd be sweet.
Me too. Panthers are a 10 and a half point dog against the Chiefs. I don't know. That seems too high to know I think the Chiefs are going to beat them up, beat them up, beat up anybody. You know what you do?
I'm going to fix your built. Remember when I said the Packers are built to lose NFC championship games? The Chiefs are built to win games by a score. They have mastered the art of luck. They're not, they're not like lucky. They are. They know how to be lucky. They're good.
Buffalo got them. Okay. But I don't, I don't know. Something weird is going to happen in this one. Can I, if you decide that you want to have a bet in this game, anybody, I got, I got something better.
I think that the chiefs are going to beat them up here. You could use them. I don't know.
Actually, I want to use them as a teaser. Yeah. The case I would make is it's Bryce Young against Steve Spagnole and the chiefs defense man. Bryce Young's looked okay against like the saints.
All right. He's not going to, he's not going to look okay against the super bowl champions. I like the Andre Hopkins, Deandre Hopkins in English to have over 43 and a half receiving yards in this game. The Panthers play zone coverage, top 10 rate this season, but they're 27th and yards allowed after the catch. They give up almost 12 yards. They're 30th and yards allowed per coverage snap, which is almost eight yards. And I know D hop hasn't had his breakout game really yet, but he's much better against zone. 31st among qualifying wide receivers against the zone.
And also the Panthers play a ton of like single high. So I think Deandre Hopkins is going to probably go off for like a hundred receiving yards. He's going to score a touchdown, but I'm going to be a puss and just bet him to have 43 and a half receiving yards minus one 15 go D hop. But I like the chiefs in the game. I didn't bet it though, but that's the only bet that I have is Deandre Hopkins.
I love that one. Texan seven and a half point favorites against the Titans at home. I mean, that's high too, but the Titans are terrible.
So I like Titans bro. No, I doubt it. I don't know. How do they win?
Oh, I have no idea. Who's even playing quarterback for them. Will Levis who sucks.
I bet. Wasn't Rudolph playing? Was he?
I don't remember. I haven't seen a Titan. Like I haven't seen a Titans off. Levis played last week. I haven't seen a Titans offensive snap in probably six weeks. Levis has actually been a little bit better since coming back in, but he's not good yet.
He's back though. I like a Nico Collins to have a break, a bounce back game because he came back from injury and he didn't go off like everybody thought he was, but he's going to kill the Titans. They play man and zone 21st and yards allowed per coverage snap, Nico Collins, CJ Stroud.
They're they're going to do work together. So I like him in this game. All right. And then the other late games, we talked about the Packers and the Niners. We also have the Raiders and the Broncos Broncos are six point favorites on the road. A lot of hype for Bo Nix.
Does Titan's theory become Broncos theory? I kind of do. I was thinking they might lose this game. I might end up betting Vegas. All I've bet so far in this was I bet I'm going to take Vegas to at least cover. I think. Yeah, I think that some of these teams that suck might start winning some games and their fan base gets mad.
I agree. I might actually bet some Vegas here. I bet Courtland Sutton over four and a half receptions and over fifty nine and a half receiving yards. Raiders stink, dude. They zone and man 30th in fucking zone, 25th and man coverage. Courtland Sutton's really good against man.
He's got a twenty five percent target rate. That means Bo Nix is falling in love with them. So I like him in this game that I like Jacoby Myers for the Raiders, especially if they're chasing points.
They have six catches. You've always been a Bo Nix guy. Is this this is because he sucked in the first month. I bet him to win Rookie of the Year. Like everybody made fun of me on my my old co-host. They were like, you're going to win Rookie of the Year.
And I was like, yeah, probably not. But it was twenty eight to one and it was like a pizza money bet. My case was what if Sean Payton doesn't suck, even though I want him to suck and maybe he just hated Russell Wilson. You know, doesn't mean Russell Wilson had to suck either because I thought he played pretty well. I think they just needed a divorce.
They didn't like each other. And Bo Nix was the most NFL ready quarterback, you know, like same thing with Jayden Daniels. That's why I said those guys. Don't be shocked if like Caleb takes a little bit of time.
The case you could have made for Caleb was he had a bunch of awesome weapons. We thought it's still a shit offensive line. He holds on to the ball too long and they didn't play a divisional opponent until week 11. But with Bo Nix, he's like 30 years old.
Right. Like he played in the SEC against a bunch of NFL talent and then he played in the Big Ten. No, he never did. He played in the Pac-12.
Sorry, Jesus, with Oregon. But still, you know, played in some big games and completed 70 percent of his passes, played in a really good offense under Kenny Dillingham. And then I thought, OK, maybe he was just a system quarterback under Dillingham. But then they switched play callers the next year and he was still just as good, maybe better.
So I think Bo Nix is good. Yeah, I do. I'm going to take the Raiders, though.
Me too. Raiders. At least plus the six. Three more games. You do have the Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Saints, Jets, Jack Jacksonville on a bye. You do have the Seahawks hosting the Cardinals. Cardinals come in. I've got him as a one point favorite. Seahawks, very interesting team in that I don't know what they are, but I know that they'll I know that they'll I have this descriptor of some teams that like Tage Spears is out.
That fucks me over. I got some bad fantasy going on this week. OK, they're one of these teams that may not make the playoffs, but they're going to impact other teams are going to be a spoiler. I want to believe in the Cardinals.
I don't know. I think the Seahawks win at home. Yeah, I bet the Seahawks to win the division before the year, nine to one, remember?
And I got over seven and a half wins and I felt awesome about that. They need to get back on their shit. Love them beating the forty niners again. Fuck the forty niners.
I hate that team. But I the only thing that scares me a little bit here is Arizona's playing pretty good ball. I don't want to lie here, but I want Seattle to win this game.
I'm going to go with Seattle. Their defense is finally getting healthy. The last two weeks, they went against the Rams and the forty niners McVeigh and Shanny in Kyron and CMAQ and they only gave up a thirty three percent rushing success rate, negative zero point two three EPA per rush. I mean, they shut those guys down. I think that defense is getting right. Reek Wolin missed some time. Now he's back. And then I love Devin Witherspoon.
He was playing through an injury. I like their coach, Mike McDonald, a lot. So I'll buy Seattle in this spot at home. I like Seahawks trying to figure out if I start Cam Akers or pick up. Gus Edwards. Gus Edwards.
Both I mean, Jesus, there's no other options. Devin Singletary. Esteemay.
Esteemay. No, but he didn't do jack shit last week. He will this week.
Why? Well, they're favored by five and a half points. So I mean, I know we're picking against them. Wait, who's Denver? We just talked about this game. Who the fuck do they got Raiders? Yeah. Yeah. They're favored by six points, dude.
If they're like, yeah, I like estimate this week against that Raiders run defense over those guys you named are like 50 years old. I'm going to take the 22 year old. All right. I got to, I got to pick them up here. This is my home league. I'm pretty much eliminated. Last week I got Joe Mixon. Wait a minute.
So I was up 35 points and I lost by two. I think, hold on, wait a minute on that. I think I really actually like estimate this week, dude. Well, I just picked them up. I'm riding estimate in Zubats. That's my weekend. Zubats is camp, but did you say you gave, what was the pick you gave him? Oh, Bucky Irving.
Bucky Irving over 50 and a half rushing yards, but you gotta, you gotta get your money to, to get in on that. You know? Yeah. Right. Right. Estimate it is. Yeah.
Let's just go with estimate. Nobody cares. All right.
Let's go. Eagles and Rams on Sunday night Rams three point underdog at home. I kind of liked the Rams. I liked the Eagles. I think the Eagles are the best team in the NFC, not named the Detroit lions. So I still worry about what happened last year, but I do think Saquon Barkley's presence kind of prevents last year from happening.
All right. You know, like when everybody talks about the Eagles, everybody talks about like Jaylen Hertz and AJ Brown. The reason I like the Eagles is because of Vic Fangio and because of Cooper to Jean who we should have drafted and Quinon Mitchell, who I wish we could have drafted, but we had no shot at since their week five by with Vic Fangio taken over for that fucking doofus Matt Patricia. The Eagles have the best defense in the league by success rate, EPA, all that shit, dude. Quinon Mitchell and Cooper to Jean are so good as rookies. I think Quinon Mitchell should be rookie of the year, to be honest with you, man. And Philadelphia is also second in the league and pass block win rate. So they're getting after the passer. If you get after Matthew Stafford beat him up, Stafford, hasn't been that great this year. And I know, I know you're going to say like, or not you, but people are going to say like, well, he didn't have Puka Nakula and Cooper cup. I mean, I get it, but we were winning games with Lake Willis.
So I don't want to hear the excuses. I like the Eagles here. I'm sitting to take the Rams, fly Eagles, uh, Harbaugh bowl.
Got to mention it. Ravens and chargers Ravens, a three point favorite. I believe John's won the match-ups against Jim, but you'd like, well, they're a favorite though. Ravens are a favorite at home against the chargers or on the road against the chargers. Feel like this, I feel like everybody's betting the chargers dude, and they're like the trendy dog and I do like them and I think they're going to go to the playoffs, but doesn't it seem like maybe like a good buy low spot.
Maybe you just take the money line and bet the Ravens to win. I don't know that the Ravens are going to lose this another game. They just lost to the Steelers. That the problem with them is last year, their defense was historically good and their offense was good. So they should have won the super bowl and they had the chiefs at home. They couldn't get the job done this year. That defense is shit against the pass.
So I would assume Justin Herbert, who's playing his best ball right now is going to light him up a little bit. Lad McConkie props should be a go probably, maybe even some Clinton Johnston, not these learn how to catch the football again, but I've probably, I haven't bet this game yet. I'm probably going to bet the Ravens, I don't know, like a cheaper money line price that people keep buying in on the chargers because I think this got down to like two and a half. I think the chargers are good, but like three weeks ago, weren't we talking about the Ravens, like the super bowl champs.
I love that. I think the Ravens, I think we got to pump the brakes on the chargers a little bit. Yeah.
I'm going to take the Ravens. It's not Brandon Staley's chargers anymore, but also it's, it is still the chargers. Right.
Right. And like, they didn't even want to win that game against the Bengals. It was like, it was like the Spiderman meme at the end of that game was like, no, you take the win.
No, you take the win. And poor Joe burrow, right? Joe burrow is like the smart kid that gets like the guys like us in the class project. And you know, they're like, ah, fuck these rejects and it, but like that's Joe burrow.
I mean, any other team dude, and he's the MVP of the league. Like what are Joe? What are Joe burrow stats this year? It's everybody's like, Oh, quarterback plays down and look like Joe burrow is thrown for 300 yards with no interceptions three times this year. And they lost those games. He's completing 67% of his passes, 3000 yards, 27 touchdowns, four picks. His QBR is one Oh 6.9 and that defense just can't get one stop for him.
Brutal. Uh, before we wrap up, it's a big Saturday. I think army and Notre Dame's an interesting game, obviously Indiana versus Ohio state, but they're what each, each, uh, the favorites are two touchdown favorites or somewhere near there. Is there any opportunity for any chaos this week in college football? I think Notre Dame is going to beat up on army, uh, at Yankee stadium. I think Kansas is going to beat Colorado.
I bet Kansas and knock them out. And then I wonder is Travis Hunter still the Heisman because what a Boise state wins these next two games, dude. And Ashton Gente is gonna like the case I made for Gente last night, Reggie Bush, all the dudes that won Heisman, especially now that it's become a quarterback award, Reggie Bush, all those guys, right? Like his numbers are way better and he's going to break records. He's going to rush for over 2000 yards, break the touchdown record. So if they're in the playoff and Colorado is not even in the big 12 championship game, is Travis Hunter really the Heisman?
So I would maybe bet a little Gente plus four 50 if you're into that sort of thing. I do think though that Colorado gets beat by Kansas. Kansas is a good football team.
They just had a bunch of bad luck early on. Now they're playing like that role of the we're going to ruin your season type thing. Last week it was BYU.
The week before that it was Iowa state. So I'll take them to beat Colorado. I hope Indiana wins because people are going to want to leave them out as a one loss team over these two loss sec teams. I hope they win by 80, but it's just not going to happen. I'm going to bet Ohio state, unfortunately, like I'll cheer for Indiana.
I just, I can't see that happening. I like Ole miss to take care of business. I think they might be the best team in the country. I just bet them to win the championship. The Natty 11 to one.
I think that's a good bet. They have the best defense in college football, man, and the best pass rush. And now Jackson dart isn't, he's like Jordan love where there was a couple of weeks where it was just cause stray Harris was healthy. He was just throwing him deep balls. Now he's using all of his other guys and he's the best intermediate passer in all of college football.
So if he actually like throws in them, that's what Jordan love needs to go back to doing. But I've talked enough about that. I like Boston college to beat North Carolina.
I guess that doesn't really matter. I think Northwestern is going to keep it close against Michigan. Michigan sucks, man, state at Minnesota. They lose there.
I want Minnesota. I know flex a fuck too, but don't you want James Franklin to lose and Penn state? They're not, everybody keeps shitting on Indiana. I would take Indiana over Penn state Penn. I keep asking everybody this, like while we keep ripping Texas and rightfully so for their schedule and we keep ripping Indiana for their schedule, who's Penn state be like, we're giving them credit because they had a 10 point lead over Ohio state because willpower through a really bad pick six.
And then they just like never looked back though. Ohio state in that game and just punked them in the trenches, the trenches. But Oh, I mean Penn state's best wins this season would be West Virginia, Illinois, and who USC, you tell me, and they were down 17 points to USC in the second half. I would love to see Minnesota do it. I don't know that they will though. I would bet the points though with Minnesota at 12 and a half.
And then, uh, I don't know that anybody like we get any real like real chaos other than Colorado's probably going down. I do think that Auburn's going to beat Texas A and M, which is huge. Cause then the next week I think Texas A and M is going to beat Texas. I bet Texas to miss the playoff plus six 25, I think A and M is going to beat them that final week. And then are you going to put a two loss Texas team in with who's their best win Michigan. They suck this year. I like Arizona state to beat BYU and uh, yeah, that's about it. What should be a good weekend?
Um, I appreciate your picks. I'm going to promote this, uh, episode on my blue sky. Oh, uh, I, I can't do it with the blue sky.
I don't even want to be on X or Twitter anymore. And so I can't have, and I have to have it for work purposes. I don't know about you.
So I can't. They never said, I just always say, I always say I need it for work, but no one's ever told me I need it. I mean, one thing since we kind of like, actually, do we still work, do we still work technically for the same company?
Not technically, but like, yes. Well, I fucking like hate having to change my password for HR stuff every three weeks when I'm running out of goddamn password. 60 days.
Yeah. I just had to change mine this week too. And then it's like, you've already chose this password and I'm like, I have a, like I have the, I have to memorize every college football, NFL college basketball statistic on the planet for my job. I can't keep coming up with creative shit for my passwords. So therefore I can't create another social media account. I have no mind capacity for any more passwords or nonsense. And this, this is how, this is the moneymaker, the brain. This is how we, we want to make your password like football. Make your password like Cortland Sutton, 25% target rate versus man. Dude. That's what it's all about though. That target share rate. Like there was a time this year where Jamison Williams, I thought was actually going to be wide receiver number one for Detroit.
Jared Goff was looking to him on all this first reads. All right. We're going to make some money this weekend.
Hopefully I don't have, hopefully Zoo Box tonight. I'm all in on that. I also bet some college hoops. If anybody out there wants a college hoops pick, I bet the over in George Washington, Kansas state. And I'm going to, I'm on the wrong side.
Probably here. I'm going to bet Duke against Arizona. I just can't see Duke losing to Kentucky and Zona to start off the year with Cooper flag and all that. Zona just lost to the Badgers. Yeah. They gave up 103 to the Badgers. Then the Badgers turned around and almost lost the next night to like T U W something, right? Yeah.
So school I don't even, I've never heard of. They like just formed that morning. It was, it was their first day. Yeah.
Yeah. I liked the Badgers though this year. I haven't really watched him yet. Well, maybe at some point. Ryan Hormat, always a pleasure. Thanks for stopping into the Winklerverse. We will talk soon and until then like and subscribe all of our things that we do. Go Zubat!
