Eric Eager, SumerSports VP

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Offer valid for a limited time, $10 minimum per order. Additional terms apply. It's a place where friendships are forged, football is revered, and food is enjoyed. Solo Stove, the perfect flame for the big game. Eric, thank you for taking the time to hop on, man.

Hey, thanks for having me. Most definitely. Now, this is a question that's real important. I know you know about the stats, the analytics. What are the odds that somebody, somehow, some way involved in the NFL this game, this Super Bowl, gets in trouble between now and Monday?

Oh, I think it's pretty high. I mean, we've seen it happen before right there at Robbins, Eugene Robinson. It's happened before. Maybe it's not directly involved with one of the teams, but I'm certain a media member might stumble across something that is unholy here and makes the news. Oh, yeah.

Always a media, or at least some media person will unearth it. Well, Eric, I know you're out in Vegas. What is the vibe? I know it's early on in the week. Things really don't get kicking until the Thursday, Friday, but I know a lot of the execs are in town. What's the vibe in Vegas already? Well, it's rainy and cold, which if you ever wanted to know what God would do if we ever held the Super Bowl here, you know now. That's been a little bit weird there, but the radio row feels about the same as most Super Bowls, but it is different. It's being held in Mandalay Bay.

We have the slot machines, blackjack tables, sportsbooks, things like that. The stadium is really close to all the festivities, which is a little bit different, but no, it feels really cool. You know, obviously you have two teams. We're here four years ago, a little bit different now that the Chiefs have gotten over the hump.

San Francisco hasn't. I think that there's a lot of pressure on the San Francisco 49ers, and the Chiefs feel like they're playing with houses and money, and they're relishing that role of the villain. Eric Eager is here with us.

He's the VP of Sumer Sports. Yesterday we had on your partner Thomas Dimitrov, and he was able to provide us some perspective with his role, former role as a general manager, scout, executive, etc. What is your perspective on this game from a numbers standpoint?

What do we need to look out for? Well, I think the big thing is both of these teams are built in different phases of the team building cycle, right? The Chiefs won the Super Bowl the first time against the Niners with Patrick Mahomes making rookie deal money, and they're then able to have the superstars. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Frank Clark, even to a lesser extent Sammy Watkins, Mitchell Swartz. They traded Tyreek Hill, built a defense, eight players in the last three drafts, six that are starting on the defense in just the 2022 draft alone. One of the youngest teams in football, the first team in the NFL history with a quarterback making the most cap money in the Super Bowl. Whereas the Niners, of course, they have a ton of superstars, five players who next year will make $20 million or more on the roster because Brock Purdy is making under a million dollars a year. They're going to eventually have to be in that phase that they continue to work with Purdy, but they're a team with a ton of superstars surrounding a young quarterback, and so it'll be interesting to see from an analytics perspective which one prevails.

Eric, you mentioned Brock Purdy. We've had so many conversations about Brock from a football perspective, and you know, what does he do on the field and what type of guy he is. His interviews are perfect, and there's also a lot of, I don't want to say accusations, but hey, he's only good because of the dudes that surround him. When you take a look at the numbers and you possibly compare him to other QBs, yeah, he's a finalist for MVP. Is he not contributing to the team as well?

People just make it sound like he's plug and play. What do the numbers say about him? Well, he averaged 9.9 yards of pass attempts, which my boss, Thomas Bischoff, when he and Kyle Shanahan went to the Super Bowl just a few years ago, Matt Ryan was at 9.3, and that offense was incredibly scary. Patrick Mahomes this year just said, for reference, 7 yards of pass attempts. So every time Brock Purdy threw the ball, the 49ers averaged three more yards than every time the Chiefs threw the ball. So clearly Brock Purdy is doing something. Mahomes has only one wide receiver with over 500 yards, only two players on his team with over 500 yards, so he's working with a lot less. But I think the time is now to look at Brock Purdy and say, yeah, he's got a lot to work with, but he's clearly doing something with that. In the here and now, the Niners' job is to win this Super Bowl. And it's none of our business right now to say, is he going to be worth the $50 million contract that a veteran quarterback is worth? That's for a future person to ask, but for right now, he's certainly worth playing, and if you like the Niners in this game, betting on. Eric Eager is here with us, the VP of Sumer Sports.

It's the chair of our sport re-show on CBS Sports Radio. When you think about the game as a whole, what do you give the edge to based on all the data and information that you have? Well, I think the 49ers are favored, and you have to respect the markets. I think about a month and a half ago, they probably would have been favored by it closer to a touchdown. So the Chiefs have certainly gotten their act together. They were the worst playoff team in the league in terms of penalty differential, in terms of turnover differential, but they've turned it around. They haven't had a penalty until basically halftime in the last two games. They've only had one turnover on offense the last two games.

Patrick Mahomes has not thrown an interception after generating a career-high 14. So they're kind of a Lebron Cavs, if you will, this year, where the whole regular season they kind of messed around, and they got it together in the second half of the year. Their defense, the second best in football, they deserve that. I think if they play their game, which is low scoring, fewer possessions, force the other team to play left-handed, I think that they're at an advantage. I think if this game becomes a track meet, I think that the 49ers are a clear advantage. So I don't think the Chiefs, if this game becomes one where the teams have to score in the 30s, I just don't think the Chiefs can. It's pretty amazing how the Kansas City Chiefs have been able to balance out the team a little bit more, more so even now, relying a whole lot on their defense.

Eric Eager is joining us here on CBS Sports Radio. When you think about the offensive explosion in the NFL, are we primed to see just more diversity in the quarterbacks and their skill sets? Are we kind of moving away from the guys, 6'5", Herbert standing there in the pocket delivering the rock? I think so to an extent, but what we have seen this year is more guys get hurt. When you aren't that physical Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert player. Justin Herbert played the entire 2022 season with broken ribs and took that team to the playoffs. When we saw Joe Burrow, who is a very good quarterback but a little bit less physically imposing, play with a calf injury, it was a disaster.

He was a league record holder for low yards for pass attempts in September with a calf injury. I think you still, and this goes to Jayden Daniels, it goes to Caleb Williams, who is I think in a measure under 6'. I still think even though the league is more conducive to smaller players in the position, more conducive to more athletic players in the position, I think you still need to have some size because since the 2011 CBA, the gap between talent on the defensive line and the gap between talent on the offensive line has grown a little bit. Quarterbacks are still going to get hit. A lot of the older players who were really good at protecting themselves, the Tom Brady's, the St. Manings, the Drew Brees, those guys have obviously aged out of the league. So we're seeing more injuries in the position and we're seeing more guys have to play hurt and bigger quarterbacks play better when they're hurt than smaller quarterbacks. Eric Eager is here with us and knows all about sports analytics as it relates to the NFL. You know, I've had this conversation with a lot of athletes.

It doesn't matter if it's someone like Terrell Owens or we want to talk about somebody on the defensive line or even an Emmitt Smith. A lot of these dudes are not necessarily happy with just how less physical the game is. Do you think over the next five to ten years that I'm going to turn on an NFL game and especially for the running backs, am I just looking at, hey, we got four out, five out, am I looking at a track meet?

The game is just all or nothing it feels like. Well, teams have used fewer men in the box over the course of a few. So what I mean is fewer linebackers, more safeties, fewer defensive linemen, more linebackers.

We've seen a trend and what was really interesting is, you know, offenses were down this year, especially the first half of the season. And the reason for it was defenses were actually much better this year at defending the run with fewer men in the box. Remember, when we were kids, you know, the way that you defended the run was you brought the safety down in the box and made an eight man box and you stopped the run that way. You can't do that anymore because passing offenses will kill you. And so, you know, defenses have had to adapt and, you know, the first adaptation was to just play six or seven men in the box and give up the run and deal with that and give up points that way in a slower fashion. But then defenses have gotten good at drafting guys like Jordan Davis and empowering players like Vida Veja and the like where those guys can actually stop the run by two gapping with lighter boxes. And so offenses have struggled because that advantage has no longer been as big for them when they run the football in early downs against smaller defenses. Well, Eric, we know that the NFL is geared towards offense.

It's geared towards entertainment. And this is this is a matter in all sports. Greg Maddux, 20 years ago, 25 years ago, said chicks dig the long ball. Do you think that we are currently in a trend when it comes to young offensive minded head coaches and and throwing the ball downfield? Or do you think we might find more balance at some point in the NFL? Well, the last hiring cycle was predominantly defensive coaches. We got Dave Canales went to Carolina and Brian Callahan went to Tennessee. But for the most part, we got Dan Quinn. We got Raheem Morris.

We got Mike McDonald. We got a bunch of defensive minded coaches getting head coaching jobs. And I think a lot of that was because, you know, a lot of the offensive talent, they got their jobs a couple of years ago.

They got their jobs over the past few years. So, you know, the league is nothing if not cyclical. I agree with you that over over time, if you look, if you zoom out, the trend is clearly towards offense. But I actually think that in the current NFL right now, we're seeing a little bit of a decline in offense and a little bit of. And, you know, because of the retirement of some of these QBs and some of the injuries that we've seen to some of the good QBs like Herbert and Burrow, we're actually seeing a little bit of a renaissance in defense, which I think some of us, you know, people who love the game back all the way back to when we were kids, I think we welcome that a little bit. Well, Eric, you take a look at some of the teams that need a quarterback in this upcoming draft. You mentioned Dan Quinn.

We know that the commanders are going to be in the market. When you think about who's available coming out of the draft, I should say, what do you think is going to make the easiest transition given his skill sets? I think that Drake May, you know, has some some really good traits to him as far as, you know, quick release. You know, he's OK at sack avoidance, which is something that I think we're going to have to have a tough conversation with with Jayden Daniels, who I really like kind of that everything else, the running ability, the you know, the rubbery arm that he has, the rubbery arm that Caleb Williams has. But I think May, you know, combines, you know, the size, the arm strength, the movement skills. And he's going to go to Washington probably at two unless they trade up for Williams. I think that that's going to be a good prospect for them. And, you know, in the in the secondary part, you know, the bone mixes, Michael Pennix, Michael Pennix took a sack on less than 10 percent of the time he was pressured over the course of his career, both at Indiana and Washington.

That is a trait that generally propagates. From college to pro. And it's one where if you look at his in history, some of the underrated quarterbacks in the NFL, all the way back to Doug Williams and even Dan Marino, I think it's even though in his whole career, I think was underrated. Some of the guys who who won more games than people expected on the win were always good at avoiding fast. And Michael Pennix had that has that trait. And so does Bonex, underratedly. So those are two guys that if I were, say, Carolina or I was a team, maybe, that was looking to hedge their bets on their young quarterback and get a second guy in that room. Those are guys that I'd look to.

It may be day two. So when it comes down to Pennix Junior, age and injury be damned. It's more so about what's in between his ears.

Exactly. I think he's a good processor. I think he's accurate, of course. And he obviously had a great game against Texas. Not as good against Michigan, but that's the national championship defense. And when you're drafting a guy late first or, as I said, day two is probably the better value for him, you're not getting the perfect prospect. But as the Eagles showed with Jalen Hurts, you don't need a perfect prospect to win football games at that position as long as you support him and build the offense around him. And I think that's the kind of play of the Pennix. And to a lesser extent, I think the kind of play of the Bonex will be at the NFL level.

Eric, final question for you as we wrap things up. Speaking of the draft, there is a guy already in the NFL. We've seen him, Justin Fields, unfortunately, banged up here and there. What is your evaluation of the guy and what do you think the Chicago Bears should do? Well, it's tough because I don't think that he's gotten necessarily the fairest shake there, right? Kamat was kind of the best option. They gave him for a while. Darnell Moody, the offensive line wasn't particularly good at first. They've done a better job over the years giving him a running game with Foreman and Herbert and giving him DJ Moore and Kamat has done a good job. Darnell Wright was taken in the draft, but it just hasn't worked out. And if they stick with him, it's going to be at the opportunity cost of Caleb Williams or Drake May.

And so they're probably going to have to take a guy high in the draft. And whether or not they keep Fields around a la Alex Smith with Patrick Mahomes or Drew Brees with Phillip Rivers or something like that, he's not in the future plans for Chicago, which means he's going to have to be the quarterback somewhere else. And we've seen that happen with, like I said, Alex Smith. We've seen that happen with Drew Brees. Guys can have Baker Mayfield just even this year. Guys can have good second standards.

That's got to be the hope for Fields. Eric, thank you so much for coming through and dropping the knowledge. Where can people keep up with you, your work? There's so much insight that you have.

Fill us in. Yeah, at Soomersports.com, at Soomersports on X and Twitter, I'm at Eric, you're underscore on both. Soomersports.com, we have a big game breakdown where we have a 41-page preview of the Super Bowl this week. If you dabble in prop bets, if you want to just look at the stats in the game, we have never before seen stats and previews of the big game.

So I would love for everybody in your audience to check that out, and I really appreciate you having me on. A Peanut Butter M&M's production. In a world where Super Bowl winners get the world's admiration and a fancy ring, but the runners-up get nothing, one retired cop returns. That's one retired quarterback. Read the script.

Oh, sorry. One retired quarterback returns to claim what's his. Um, that's claim a ring with diamonds made from M&M's peanut butter, but you're on a roll. The Ring of Comfort, coming soon to a Super Bowl new you.

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