Hey y'all, this is Maggie Freeling, host of the new podcast, Up at Banish Weekly. Tune in each week as Payne Lindsay and I are joined by other true crime experts to take a fresh look at some of the most puzzling crimes. and shine a spotlight on the cases that have stumped investigators. for far too long.
So go right now and search Up Advanish Weekly in your podcast app to follow the show. Listen for free wherever you get your podcasts. Botox Cosmetic, Autobotulinum Toxin A, FDA approved for over 20 years.
So, talk to your specialist to see if Botox Cosmetic is right for you. For full prescribing information, including boxed warning, visit BotoxCosmetic.com or call 877-351-0300. Remember to ask for Botox Cosmetic by name. To see for yourself and learn more, visit BotoxCosmetic.com. That's BotoxCosmetic.com.
Joining us right now is someone to talk about all the games and maybe even what we saw last night. She joins us via Sumer Sports. It's Lindsay Rhodes. Lindsay, welcome back. How are you?
Hi, JR. I'm doing great. How are you? I'm excellent. Thank you for taking the time.
I guess just before we go a little bit around the world, we had Thursday night football. We'll get to that in a second. What are your thoughts on this matchup on Sunday night between Detroit and Kansas City? Detroit's still lining it up almost thirty-five a game. Yeah, um Uh the one thing that I am maybe hyper focused on that will be most unhealthy.
is Taylor Becker's status going into this game. I think that it's going to be pretty important for the Lions and Because I think we're we all know, despite the fact that the Chiefs are two and three, that this is gonna be a a pretty good game and evenly matched in a lot of ways. And one of the things that we did a deep dive on at Sumer Sports this week, our entire podcast was dedicated to this. the drop off that happens when you lose a starting offensive tackle to injury. I think we all know, narratively speaking, that there aren't that many really good offensive tackles in the NFL.
Uh they're just hard to find for a ton of different reasons, one of which is You don't make humans that are that size and also that athletic at the same time. There aren't that many of those walking around the earth. But What we have found consistently when you take somebody like that out And we saw this with the Chargers last week too, that there are specific statistical patterns that develop. One is that the quarterback's time to throw goes down quite a bit, and the time to pressure. goes down also, meaning it comes faster.
And then the effect is that the average depth of target also comes crashing down because I think you can kind of figure all of this out, right? If the pressure's coming faster and the quarterback has to get the ball out, and there is less time for those longer developing routes. I'm keeping my eye on Jameson Williams in that regard, not necessarily wanting to fire him up in fantasy this week. under those circumstances. Um, but also Giovanni Manu, who was the guy who stepped in in Taylor Decker's place last week.
Was our lowest rated offensive tackle in pass block sumer score last week, dead last. Exactly.
So we did see those numbers, all the numbers that I mentioned, their plummet, including the STACK rate. Their STACK rate on the season in the first four weeks of the year was three percent, and it went up to fourteen percent last week.
So I just think that's one thing that you can handle. You can metabolize it when you're playing the Bengals defense. But when you're playing the Chiefs and Chiefs Bagnolo, I don't really like that.
So I'm keeping my eye on Taylor Decker quite a bit for that one. Oh, so you think Jared Goff is going to be out there running for his life? Or getting the ball out quickly, because I think that they are smart enough to scheme around that, like they did last week. It's just How many offensive possessions you have to be hyper-efficient if you're going to throw the ball four yards, right? Like if your average depth of target is a four-yard depth of target as opposed to eight or nine.
Then just think about how many more plays you have to actually hit to move the ball down the field in order to score. And um so I just I just think it puts a lot more pressure on him. I think that they'll be able to do it. I just don't know that it's the most effective way Um or You know, to move the ball down the field against the Chiefs. I think you want more of those longer throws to be able to mix in.
I'm not sure they'll be able to. Lindsey Rhodes is here with us from Sumer Sports. Speaking of the Kansas City Chiefs, we know what their record is. We saw what took place against Jacksonville this past Sunday. It appears that, of course, they've taken a step back.
Is it right to kind of remove them as top of the line of Super Bowl contenders this year? I'm not doing that yet. And part of that reason has to do with the fact that, okay, so they're upside-down wind loss. you know, if you're banking on them to win the Super Bowl or go to the playoffs and go far, you don't like the fact that they're two and three right now for sure. But I think they played a majority of those games without Xavier Worthy.
And then they don't have uh Richard Wright. They'll get him back after this week.
So I think that for me, I just am kind of not ignoring the beginning of the season for them, but I just know that we've seen this pattern develop where they're concerned in the past. where we are unimpressed with the way they're getting there. But if they can get to the postseason, we kind of know that they have figured out a way to just put the pedal to the metal when the time comes. And to Come up with game plans and things like that that will get you to the end of the line. And I think the fact that they did not have those two weapons for such a long period of time kind of means that to me, I'm sort of throwing those games out in terms of my evaluation of them.
What I don't want to see happen, and they're certainly in danger of that happening. This week with a very tough matchup against the Lions. You fall to two and four, and now we're having like a, is the hole too big to climb out of? How many games do you have to win in a row? That's my primary concern with the Ravens.
But the Ravens, I think, have shown us. A lot more reasons to be actually concerned, I think, than the Chiefs. There are less outs that I see for the Ravens. We know, Lindsay, that Lamar Jackson is going to be out of action again. This does not bode well for Baltimore as the Rams come into town and head their way into Baltimore.
What do you think happens at the conclusion of this season with the Baltimore Ravens? I think well, I obviously heard, as did you, the people who are pivoting to like move on from Harbaugh and all that kind of stuff. I would think that any kind of Like if this season ends up where they are not able to turn things around and get to the playoffs and make a run in the playoffs, I think that that would be, from where I sit, like a step a step too far. I think that he's obviously proven in quite a number of ways that he's a really good head coach. And so I kind of want to just hit pause on a weird season like this.
I also want to point out how ridiculous their schedule has been.
So while the defense, yes, has fallen off a cliff in weird ways, like we're not seeing the defense out of Baltimore that we're used to seeing, there are valid concerns with regards to the Ravens. But also, from a statistical standpoint, when you look at their schedule and the fact that they have played. Gosh, the other three Uh uh aside from them AFC division winners from last year. and the number one team to come out of the NFC last year in the Lions, and then this week, the number one team this year in yards per play differential. Like they literally have only played one game against a non elite team from last year Or this year, like putting them together.
Their schedule out of the gate has been wild. Like someone in the league office hates them and/or wanted to set them up for a dramatic run because their season does ease out. Their schedule eases up a lot starting next week.
So hopefully, they're able to get Lamar back. And you know, put start start putting things together and maybe figure it out on defense, but I guess For me, I'm not yet ready. I think we're still so early in the season. I'd like to see Lamar back on the field before I start rushing to new judgment there. Oh, Lindsay is speaking of the AFC North.
We have this matchup between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. We'll see Dylan Gabriel. Me specifically, I think a lot of people in Cleveland are just waiting to see. Shador get his chance and opportunity, and then on the other side of the field I can't believe we got Aaron Rodgers in the NFL, and things have been rather quiet on the end with him. Yeah, that's kind of a welcome change, I think, probably for Pittsburgh more than anyone else, right?
Like, we're not seeing those. Weekly appearances on Pat McAfee that I think just give a lot of people on the outside ammunition, right? And so I think it's ideal. You brought up Shador. Like in a perfect world, I think you want your quarterback of all people in the building.
to I mean to speak up certainly but but almost Primarily football related, like you just don't want to invite other conversations into the building because. I mean, the distraction conversation is, you know, can go in a bunch of different directions. And certainly anybody talking about whatever they want to talk about, whatever they feel passionately about, in the case of Aaron Rodgers, that's valid. It's just there are repercussions. It really does bring a weird onus into the building.
And so that's been a welcome change, I think, from my perspective. Um, I'm really, I'm sort of still waiting to see.
Something from the Steelers. He's been very efficient. Aaron Rodgers may. Botox Cosmetic, Autobotulinum Toxin A, FDA approved for over 20 years.
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Hey all, this is Maggie Freeling, host of the podcast Up and Vanish Weekly. Tune in each week as I dive into some of the most interesting unresolved cases. Search Up and Vanish Weekly in your podcast app. follow the show. I think But I also think that his play has been consistent with what you see from older quarterbacks.
When their play starts to decline in a way, like just physically, when you get to a certain age, it is harder to do the same things that you have done. for your whole life. What we do see here is that They've brought the average depth of target way down. He has the lowest average depth of target for every quarterback in the NFL. It's at five right now.
So they're consistently throwing short. And then maybe just taking advantage of every once in a while forcing him to push the ball down the field, but not at a rate where his arm starts to see a drop in accuracy. I think that that's a really smart. strategic approach to that and just understanding that He's going to get the ball out fast. He can read the defense.
His mind is still top notch. And so I think that that's a smart approach for them. But much the same way that I was talking about with the Lions without Taylor Decker, when you bring the average depth of target down, it just forces you to do so much more, right? And so I do have some concerns about them and what I've seen from them so far, even though they've had some. success in the win-loss column, I just don't know how competitive they're going to be against those better teams when they need to be.
And I fear for the Steelers that they might be looking at another season, much the same as we've seen from them in years past, where they're kind of just over 500. And yet it's not enough to really do what the Steelers fans want, which is to make a strong run in the postseason. Yeah, we know that their fans are like, Hey, good enough isn't good enough for us. We know that Aaron Rogers is is closer to the end, pretty much there at the end. than he is to the beginning.
But Baker Mayfield is right in his prime. I mean, people are talking about Baker Mayfield for for MVP. There's so many injuries on the offense. What are your thoughts on Baker Mayfield? Do you think he's going to be able to sustain this potentially towards an MVP?
I Do I believe Baker and the the box are one of the kind The teams that I thought in the beginning of the year, I was a little bit confused about the way we were talking about them. And by we, I mean like narratively everyone going into fantasy drafts, that kind of stuff. There was so much expectation for regression there. And I did not understand that necessarily. I understand statistical regression when something is so outliery, which is what was happening with the Eagles.
They're like, it was so historically dominant that you just have. to regress to to a degree. And I think that people were talking about Baker from a passing standpoint in that way also. But what I saw was an environment that was way better than the ones that he had been in in the past.
So he has an opportunity to succeed that he hasn't necessarily seen in years past.
So there's an explanation as to why it jumps. And then also the wide receivers that he has around him, and then Bucky Irving. And so just I really love that offense in particular, all of the pieces there.
Now this week is going to be very interesting for them going up against Seattle. I think a team that kind of Is just as equally interesting. I love that matchup this week. I'm so fascinated by it. But Tale's defense is very good, and you're going to go in there without Mike Evans and without Chris Godwin.
And without Bucky Irving. And so, what does that mean for Mecca Igbuka in terms of the defensive attention that collapses on him? Is he able to play in the squad as much as he did? What does it look like coming out of the backfield? I think Rashad White will probably be able to keep things going there.
But then who else rises? You need someone else in the passing game to really step up. And so is that Tez Johnson? Is it more twelve personnel and maybe Kate Otten gets more into the mix? I think there's a lot of questions surrounding that, but in general, One of the things that we've seen from Baker is his stack rate is way down this year.
Obviously, his EPA, all that stuff is through the roof. having his best year ever. But one of the things that I really started to notice last year in his stats was that his time to throw was. just under his time to pressure on a week-tweek basis. That frequently happened.
And at the end of the year, it ended up so his time to throw was just over his time to pressure. But it's rare that you see a quarterback whose time to throw is under the time to pressure. And to me, that told a story of someone who's really learning how much time he had in the pocket. And what to do with the ball as a result. Like, he knew when he needed to get rid of the ball.
That is an. Underrated quarterback skill. And so I think you can explain the sack rate being down this year. As sort of like what we saw last year with the process, and this is the result. Does that make sense?
Yeah, well, I know that for this much, there's a lot of people in Cleveland that are just like, we let this guy leave and look who we traded him for, you know?
So I know that's another story. It's a whole nother, whole nother story. Yeah, Browns fans are just getting the short end of the stick. Imagine if Baker Mayfield wins an MVP in another uniform. It's like the Browns are snake bitten there.
Lindsey Williams.
Well, you weren't the only one, though.
Sorry to interrupt. Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold. I mean, these guys are legitimately at the top of the quarterback chart.
So he's not alone in the, or they are not alone in terms of cities that have passed off a quarterback who's having awfully good seasons.
So at least there's that. Yeah, it depends on uh where you land and who's coaching you and the environment there.
So it's it's good to see all of these uh these quarterbacks getting different chances in different cities. Uh Lindsay, you always bring great expertise, uh, courtesy of Sumer Sports. I I hear that Sumer is uh working on something new. W is Phyllis in, what's Sumer bring?
Okay, so Sumer Brain is our football AI chatbot that we just released this week. We've been working on it. for quite a while now, and we're really excited about it. I like to think of it, I think at the stage where it is right now, if you think of it as a data retrieval tool, that's how you're going to have the most success with it. It's an open beta period, so it is Not perfect.
We're not claiming every answer that you're going to get is going to be perfect. It is an AI tool.
So there are concerns that I understand that people have. And you're probably going to want to double check the answers. But why we made it an open beta period is because the more volume that it sees, the more that people are actually using it, it sort of fixes itself quickly. And we on the back end can also say, okay, we're seeing consistent problems with this particular thing. And so we need to define this stat, for instance.
Um, and so we can fix those things faster and get it to where we want it to be. But I mean, we're talking like deep, deep, advanced data that you can ask it. You can ask it about coverage rate versus very specific things on third down, whatever, um, catch. Uh depth uh You know, route information, like the number of things it opens up an entire. Entire window to stats that you could almost even make up because whatever you want to know about, you can ask about it.
and then put it into different combinations, add different filters on top of one another.
So whatever you can think of that you might want to know about a matchup as specifically as you can ask about it, that's how you have the most success with the prompts. I suggest everybody goes in and kind of plays around with it. It's at sumersports.com/slash sumer brains.
Okay.
Well, Lindsay, we always appreciate the time. And thank you for dropping more knowledge and giving us more insight. We look forward to catching you down the line, okay? Thank you so much. You too.
Hey y'all, this is Maggie Freeling, host of the podcast Up and Vanish Weekly. Tune in each week as I dive into some of the most interesting unresolved cases. Search Up and Vanish Weekly in your podcast app to follow the show. Botox Cosmetic, Atobotulinum Toxin A, FDA approved for over 20 years.
So, talk to your specialist to see if Botox Cosmetic is right for you. For full prescribing information, including boxed warning, visit Botoxcosmetic.com or call 877-351-0300. Remember to ask for Botox Cosmetic by name. To see for yourself and learn more, visit BotoxCosmetic.com. That's BotoxCosmetic.com.
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