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So let's bring in Dave Ignatius to the Washington Post. Dave, welcome back. It's great to be with you, Brian. How's always?
Okay, so the 28 points on that page were very pro-Russian. I got it. Since that time Rubio has taken it on head on, it's down to nineteen, and both sides feel much better about the nineteen points bringing us to peace.
Now as we head to the UAE where Russia has An emissary, and we send our Secretary of the Army, Driscoll. Do you think the Russians are going to play ball?
So they'd been playing ball. They they they initiate this process by Saying what they'd like to see in a peace agreement. You know, Russians are suffering. in this war uh as the Ukrainians are. I think the key days are ahead.
Thank goodness the Trump team. Um Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio and others. Realized that their initial 28-point draft just leaned too hard toward Vladimir Putin, and they made some changes. I wrote after talking to members of the team on Saturday that they were going to do that, that they understood that Ukraine needed more in the way of security guarantees and they needed assurances My piece said that they had a 100% commitment from the U. S.
to for continued sharing of intelligence, which as you know is crucial.
So now the question is now that this thing is more balanced, less pro-Moscow, what are the Russians going to do? I mean, how much do they want peace? What leverage does the President really have to get them on board? From the beginning, I felt the president desires, Trump's desire to get peace, to get an end to this terrible war in Ukraine, was something that people should support and work with him on. But it takes two to tango, and we still don't know what the Kremlin thinks.
I mean, put it this way: if they're engaged and they want peace, I'm sure we're going to get something. But my sense is. Uh Vladimir Putin might not want it. And even though the Rossnet and the Luke Oil, I think, is going to hurt, and it's certainly going to hurt the India purchases of their oil and gas. I'm not sure.
And the way I understand it, you may have better sources, Dave. The way I understand it is that after the Gaza deal, October 22nd. Jared Kushner, flying back with Witkoff, said, Let's focus on Ukraine. And they came up with a plan. They said, let's go meet with the Russian Dmitriev, and they met in Miami.
And that's what prompted this. I didn't think the Russians reached out. And I think that does matter. It might show the level on which they're willing to talk. Is that how you understood it?
That's basically the same understanding. I think it did begin with Witcroff and Jira and the desire to repeat the success that they'd had in Gaza. They saw. That where the Gaza talks were opened after the Israelis unwisely attacked. Qatar trying to go after Hamas people there.
In the case of Ukraine, there was what they called an inflection point because of weakness on the battlefield for Ukraine in Donetsk and also the big corruption scandal.
So they thought, here's an opening, you know, but in a sense, they were realizing Ukraine was weak and might you know might be more pliable. I think they've come and then they did talk to the Russians. But I think this process has gone the way it should. They had a proposal, they got a lot of pushback, they listened to it. The truth is, if this is a pro-Russian peace deal, it's not going to work.
The Ukrainians won't accept it. And even if they did, it wouldn't be stable. It wouldn't last.
So I think people are now in the zone where they could actually get somewhere.
So Dave Ignatius is our guest.
So, Dave. What do you think effective security, acceptable security guarantees looks like? Is it troops on the ground? where they decide the border, the new Ukraine border is.
So getting back that eighteen percent of their land is not going to happen. Giving up Donbass, all of Donbass, I don't think that's going to happen either.
So having said that, what does legitimate security guarantees look like for Ukraine?
So My model for this to be honest is South Korea. The Korean War ended without a formal peace agreement, but with an armistice. But there was enough of a guarantee in the form of U. S. troops mainly in South Korea that South Korea became one of the miracles of the world after that war.
You know, just enormous growth Successful democracy. It's a country that just went from basically zero to 100.
So that's possible for Ukraine, but if they have security on their side of the line of control.
So I think that security does require troops at least to be able to move in and out of Ukraine. In one of my pieces, Brian, I described one idea that the Trump team has, which is let's give them tomahawks after there's a peace deal so that they would have deterrent. If the Russians messed around, they have tomahawks that can hit Moscow. They wouldn't use them unless they were provoked, because if they did, they'd lose all U.S. and European support.
But they'd at least have a backup. I think that kind of idea, the issue is deterrence. How do you deter Russia in the future? Things like tomahawks, things like troops are going to have to be part of the package.
So, Dave, for people listening to us right now that keep saying things to the navy on both sides. Ukraine, well that's not our problem. That's Europe's problem. And Russia, you know, they feel threatened by NATO. It's our fault for expanding NATO too big.
What do you say to those people?
So, the first thing I say is, we didn't invade Ukraine, Russia did. Joe Biden didn't invade Ukraine. Vladimir Putin did. And he did it because of a misconceived idea that Ukraine is part of Russia. It isn't.
It's its own country.
Now that's a formal matter of international law. You can't just invade other countries and expect to topple our governments. That's not how the world works.
So I would say that we have an interest in that basic rule of law. Because that's, you know, stability in the world depends on it. I personally admire the Ukrainians enormously for the way they fought back. I just think in terms of the human qualities that we admire, that we give thanks for at this time of year, they've really displayed them. And I don't want us to walk away from them.
I'd say to friends I meet, you know, let me tell you about what it feels like in Kyiv when you go there, what you hear from people. Just to think about this, not in terms of our politics, but in terms of their commitment, their suffering. I've been in the hospitals and seen the amputees who want to go right back to the front. Why? Because it's their country, because they believe in it.
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Learn more on firstnet.com/slash public safety first. And just understand, if this ends the wrong way, we're just going to be back again. Maybe it's going to be the rest of Georgia next time. Maybe all of a sudden they're going to decide that Estonia never really belonged to be free. You know, and Lithuania was provocative.
They'll make up some story that we got to go take parts of Lithuania back. Let alone more formidable countries like the long border between Finland.
So they have to know that this is not going to work. And that we're going to be there to back up our allies. And our allies from here on in have to understand they're going to have to buy the weapons, hopefully from us, to defend themselves. You said it just right. good name as a country has to mean something.
When we make an assurance from administration to administration, it has to be something real there. People are going to just have a different opinion in the United States of America, which is not good.
So um We understand this, too. There's a couple of things that are going to happen.
Now, with Driscoll getting, I guess, read in, he's going to go over the UAE. And we're going to see if Vladimir Putin is sending somebody there that wants to get a deal done. And if they feel as though Russia is playing ball, Zelensky is going to come to the US and meet with Trump and talk about land specifically. Is that the scenario you understand it? I think that's right.
I think if the UAE talks go well, and it's very interesting, I would note, to see the growing role of Dan Driscoll, the Army Secretary, close friend of J.D. Vance's, the Vice President of Vance's, in this process. But if those talks go well, I think we will have the next meeting. I think President Trump quite reasonably wants to get this done while he thinks there's a moment. I have to say, I don't see Vladimir Putin ready to make a deal.
I don't think he wants peace, Brian. I think he wants victory. And President Trump's saying, you're not going to get victory. The time is to settle this war. If he refuses, Then Trump has a real dilemma.
What does he do then? Because he's going to have to significantly increase U.S. pressure. I couldn't predict what he'll do, but if Putin says no, and I think you'd have to bet 60, 40 he'll say no, then it really gets tough for the president. No question.
Now, China makes a call yesterday to the president.
Now they say the April meeting is now set, and they talked about things, including Taiwan, which is significant. But he also talked about Ukraine. You know, Russia, if China wants this war to end, it ends tomorrow.
So do you what do you think China could possibly have offered, if anything?
So I think China's price for doing more than it's been willing to do to lean on Russia. To end this war is a significant U.S. move on Taiwan. And I think that's, you know, that again, that's a tough call. President Trump does not have as strong a commitment to Taiwan as some of his predecessors.
I think he sees it more as a supply chain issue. He wants the chips from Taiwan, but Taiwanese Yeah. visa vis China matters less to him than to even to Biden. Biden said several times he would he would commit U. S.
military forces if the Chinese Attacked.
So I think that's the grand bargain that China would envision. We'll help you solve Ukraine if you'll help us solve Taiwan. That's a reach. That would be very destabilizing. That's the only offer.
Yeah, of course, that's too much of a reach. But I was just wondering if there's anything else because we hear the more stories you read, the people that know they are really hurting economically. And I'm just wondering if there's something else there.
So if China could help make our sanctions against Russian energy really bite, China is a major buyer of Russian oil. And I just heard had a little bit of intelligence from one of our European allies that things are not going as well for Russia, either on the battlefield in Ukraine or in terms of their suffering damage from Ukrainian long-range strikes as we might think. But they're hurting more than we realize. If that's true, then the Chinese can increase that pain level some without abandoning Russia in a way that might change the calculus for Putin. I think that would be the ideal scenario.
They'll help us get to a settlement because they know it's time. You know, it's amazing too because we always seem to miscalculate the strength of Russia when they were the Soviet Union on down.
So we probably still don't know exactly how much damage or how hurting. Russia is. Right?
So this report suggested that Russian refining capacity has been hit more, damaged more by Ukrainian long range strikes than we're generally understanding. That's something I'm going to do some reporting on to see if I can confirm that. But You know, just as Ukraine is vulnerable now, so is Russia. If China got on board saying it's time for this to end, no question that would make a difference. Lastly, do you think Ukraine needs this to end?
So, I think as Ukrainian friends say to me, this will be a terrible winter. The Ukrainian ambassador told me last week that some wounded veterans had climbed Mount Kilimanjaro as part of a program they have to rehabilitate people. And one of them had said: the one thing you know is that as difficult as today is, tomorrow will be more difficult. That's where they are, right? I mean, through this winter, every bad day will be followed by one even worse.
But they're tough. And so I would think they would come through this horrible winter. They'd still be in the battle. They're going to keep fighting. And the Russians have to calculate that.
This is not an adversary that's going to quit. And we're not going to stop because NATO now buys our weapons and we get them over to Ukraine. Dave Ignatius, always great. And I look forward to getting the insight on your columns every day, The Washington Post. Dave, thank you.
Thank you. Happy Thanksgiving to you and all your listeners. This is Ainslie Earhart. Thank you for joining me for the 52-episode podcast series, The Life of Jesus. A listening experience that will provide hope, comfort, and understanding of the greatest story ever told.
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