There are a lot of details to work out, but what I mean is I think we're making progress. We're getting to a point where we can potentially sit down and settle these issues, but that requires us to make a little bit more progress. I can't guarantee that we're going to get there, but right now I feel pretty good about it. And that is the vice president yesterday at a commencement address for Air Force Academy. With us right now, is Rebecca Heinrich, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, just back from Ukraine.
But what was harder is getting here from Washington. That's right. Right? Because there's a fire at Penn Station. It backed up all trains coming from the south.
Right.
So they just told you trains are canceled, can't get in. Right.
I showed up. 5:30 a.m. this morning. They told me to find another way to New York. And you did?
I did. Got the last seat on a Delta flight. All right, so we appreciate it.
So, this is what we know: U.S. blockade gets lifted. Iran is allowed to sell oil freely. Iran agrees not to pursue a nuclear weapon. Talks begin on uranium disposal and enrichment.
U.S. to discuss sanctions relief and frozen funds. Humanitarian aid. Uh and Don't let Israel hit Hezbollah anymore in Lebanon. What do you think?
Well, a couple of those already crossed President Trump's red lines, so I'm still really skeptical.
So President Trump's been very clear that Israel obviously has a right to defend itself.
So as long as Hezbollah keeps firing at Israel, Israel is going to have a right to defend itself. The other thing, too, you know, I talked to a senior White House official a few days ago who's told me that there's no way there's going to be any lifting of U.S. blockade or removal of U.S. forces until there is demonstrated Iranian behavior that lets the strait open. And so far, to my knowledge, the Iranians want the condition of the blockade lifted first before they let, you know, before they say that they're not going to fire on ships in the strait.
So I'm still very skeptical that we've got Iranians operating in good faith. I understand the administration's goal is to get that straight open as soon as possible to get energy prices down, but I remain skeptical. They also want, does President Trump, them Saudi Arabia, anybody who has not joined, Bahrain, UAE has already joined, anyone not in the Abraham Accords to join? How do you feel about that?
Well, look, Saudis have said no, not until a power. Palestinian state is formed, really? Yeah. I mean, look, the Gulf states are the reason that the United States is being restrained in Project Freedom. Remember, like Project Freedom was this great mission.
I thought Rubio explained it really well. The chairman of the joint staff explained it really well. Heg Seth explained it really well. Purely defensive operation, take out IRGC militia in the strait that are shooting on any ships. We've got over a thousand ships still trapped in the strait.
And so this idea was purely defensive operation to open up the strait forcibly. And it was the Gulf states that said, don't do that, because if you do that, the Iranians are going to retaliate against critical infrastructure in our countries. And so President Trump wants this coalition with the Gulf states.
So he put the brakes on Project Freedom.
So I think he's totally right to say, look, you know, we're going to go a different way to try negotiations again. But at the very least, all these Gulf states that have seen how bad the Iranians are, they owe us this: normalization with Israel. Get with the program. With not funding the proxies and limiting ballistic missiles. That is not a part of the memorandum of understanding.
We assume it's going to be in the 60-day negotiation, but you can't tell Israel, don't bomb, no more fighting in Lebanon, by the same time, allow Iran to go fund and prop up Hezbollah again. That's right. I mean, remember. They would never agree to that. No, no.
And remember, you know, Iran is still, it has not renounced its support for these Shia militia groups outside of its borders. And Iran funds, as you said, Brian, funds, trains, and supports Hezbollah. And so it cannot make a condition that the Israelis cannot defend themselves against its main proxy group. Right.
So. Militarily. Do you think I think the military would love to be able to finish the job? Is that what you're getting? Yeah, my understanding is: you know, I keep hearing people say, look, Rebecca, there are limits to what our military can achieve.
I mean, of course, in theory, that's true. But President Trump's initiation of Epic Fury demonstrated overwhelming military competency. I mean, we have the Iranians totally, completely vulnerable right now. We know that there are Iranian surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-ship missiles all along the coastline in the Strait of Hormuz. We know that they have this ability to launch these fast boats against these ships.
Our military can take those out. We have drone defense against some of our ships, and we have the ability to offensively go after these fast boats. Through warthogs. Yeah. So I'm totally in favor, at the very least, along the coastline.
We got to get rid of these IRGC militia because even if there's some kind of deal, what I don't like is the optics and the substance of the Iranians actually giving us permission to operate in the strait. That can never happen because it's a bad precedent for the all international waters around the world. Ever heard of Warren Chi? It's an energy someone gives off when they have an American Home Shield warranty. It's the feeling of protected appliances and home systems, covered repairs or replacements, HVACs, ovens, fridges.
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Here's General Jack Keene on what he guarantees. Cut nine. We know they're going to cheat. Look at this. Just this week alone, with the violation of the ceasefire and the straits of Amuz, who's doing that?
The Iranians are doing that. And we had to react to it. Look what they've done in Lebanon. The ceasefire began on April the 8th. And since April the 8th, less than two months, they have fired rockets and missiles into Northern Israel over 900 times.
1,200 plus drones have been fired into Northern Israel, all since April the 8th. And that is under the guise of a ceasefire. And the Israelis are in a defensive crouch because they're abiding by the terms of the deal, which is they can only conduct defensive operations. I point this out because it reminds us who we really are dealing with here. You don't need a reminder, Rebecca.
But I think the rest of the world understands we're not dealing with an equal partner that can be trusted. One thing is consistent. They never have been able to be trusted. That's right. And I hear a lot of people say: look, like, you know, wars end in negotiations and diplomacy, but only after one side has its will broken and is no longer willing to fight.
And the Iranians are still willing to fight, even though the United States has completely taken out their proper Navy. The IRGC still has these fast boats in the strait. We've taken out their Air Force. We've taken out a significant ability of them to produce missiles, their defense industrial capacity, their steel industry, their plastic industry. And now we're sitting there and they're still terrorizing the Strait of Hormuz because their will is not broken.
You still see Iranian politicians on X being very provocative, mocking the United States. And so until the United States can compel the Iranians to say, look, you've lost. And now we dictate terms, you do not dictate terms. I think this thing is still going to be a major problem.
So you were over in Ukraine. Um And you were there for how many days? Seven days in country and one day in Moldova.
So I want you to senator Richard Blumenthal said some positive things, CUD 17. Let me just dispel a couple of myths. America is not leaving Ukraine. Our diplomats are here to stay. We're Standing behind Ukraine, as we have done from the outset.
We will not be cowed by Russian threats. or bullying. We're not scared and neither should the people of Ukraine. be cowed in any way by this kind of bullying.
So they need patriots right now, President Zelensky said. They're doing good drone to drone. What did you find when you were there? Yeah, a couple of things. One, the amazing resilience of Ukrainian people.
I mean, I met with political leaders, military leaders, civil society leaders, spent over an hour with President Zelensky and an hour with the First Lady. But really, the remarkable people who I met were just sort of the everyday Ukrainians. elderly ladies of Ukraine going into these community centers and making camouflage netting for Ukrainian troops. Very pro-U.S., pro-freedom, incredible people. Yeah, the big takeaway for me is the Ukrainians are not asking for much of the United States at this point.
They have got drone production capacity. They've got more to teach us than we can give on drone fighting. But they do need patriots, and the United States is the only one that can produce these things. And they need them because the Russians are firing missiles. And the Ukrainian people need to have the confidence that they can be protected so that they can go to work and send their kids to school.
And that's why they need American patriots. Right.
Do you think they'll be able to get them? They should. I mean, so far. Protection's a problem. Production is a problem only if the United States doesn't make it a priority.
So the United States has the ability to produce the necessary patriots as long as we don't do stupid things like say, look, you know, we need these for a future potential conflict with China. In theory, I get that. We've got a war right now with an ally right now. The other important point, Brian, is that the Ukrainians, when they use the Patriot systems, they learn how to adapt them.
So then we learn how to adapt them.
So then the Patriots that we are iterating are even better than they were before we sent them. And the Russians, you say, look at this as a fight against the U.S. Oh, totally.
So the other thing I learned in Ukraine is hearing all of these briefings is that the Russians view Ukraine as a pro-West, pro-democracy nation that stands in the way of the Russians' ability to push the United States out of Europe and break up NATO.
So ultimately, the Russians fear the United States. They don't really take the Europeans seriously. They see Ukraine as standing in the way of their biggest adversary, which is the United States. Poland understands that, right? The Baltics understand that.
And then yesterday, Romania's apartment building got hit by a Russian drone in Romania. That is a NATO ally. What should our response be?
Well, more than just a sort of bland denunciation. I mean, the United States should clearly say that it was Russia that acted aggressively against Romania, that we defend Romanian territory. Remember, the Romanians are very pro-U.S. too. Romanians have been great, even on Epic Fury.
They've been one of the countries that have said, hey, whatever you need, we want to be able to help and provide help. And so I think that the United States needs to stop trying to be like the mediator, sort of the middle person here, and needs to clearly be on the side of Ukraine, needs to bolster NATO's front, which is, you know, if we want to shift some troops from Germany, don't bring them out of Europe. Shift them to Romania and to Poland and the Baltic nations. That's a great place for them to be. And it can still encourage our European allies to step up as well.
I know. I think they got the message. I mean, Sweden and Norway, Finland, I get it. They get it. Poland gets it.
The Baltic nations, the best they can, but they're tiny. Yep. Understood. You know, who still doesn't get it is France, and England's playing like under 2%. And what did they show us?
They had three ships? Yeah, they have got a major domestic problem. They got to invest in defense, absolutely. The one country we have not mentioned, though, is Germany's actually really stepping up. I was really surprised when we were in Ukraine to see the economic support and aid that the Germans are stepping up and providing.
It's the wealthiest European country they should. But the Germans, I mean, under Chancellor Mertz, I mean, he's no Angela Merkel. I mean, he really is investing in German defense industry. And so he really is headed in the right direction. That's good because I know that there's a bit of a fracture.
I am shocked. After the initial surge, and the president does things different, taking out the Ayatollah, wiping out 40, ultimately 60, maybe 80 of their leaders, they said our allies were upset.
Okay. They were upset. They said we should have been read in. Understood, but we wanted the element of surprise. You could debate that at the military level at some war college.
But since then, they've done nothing. Meeting without us. How are they going to open up the strait? When the conflict's done. I mean, that is really, that is really.
Uh arrogant. And I don't think realistic. Do you really want to ally the person who's been your back, the country that's been your backstop for the last 60 years? Right.
So the United States is the leader of NATO. I, you know, I'm a big proponent, as I know you are, Brian, of making NATO stronger. The United States needs these countries. We're still operating out of Germany, out of England now, somewhat out of France, a little bit out of Italy for Epic Fury. That's how we project power into the Middle East is from these European bases.
And I do think if you talk to these European leaders, they'll say, look, nobody cares. Everyone's glad the Ayatollah is gone. We know that Iran posed a major threat to Europe, but they still have these political problems with the United States.
So, you know, one of my recommendations is. I wish that the United States would focus our diplomacy on the Europeans and the Gulf states and not with the Iranians right now and get a coalition of the willing to open up the Strait of Hormuz and get something in place. Because if you bring the Europeans on board, one nation individually doesn't have enough firepower, but collectively they do and they can help us. They would. And they also had snapback sanctions.
They decided to put the snapback sanctions on.
So we're not alerting them to a problem. They acknowledge that problem. They do.
So we'll see what happens. Lastly, the President's still going to go to the G seven, still gonna go to the NATO conference. At which time, what do you think the posture will be against him? It'd be aggressive like the Canadian leader? Or do you think they'll understand Like the General Secretary, that the U.S.
has to be dealt with respectfully. Yeah, I think it's the latter. I mean, look, I think interests ultimately prevail in the end. And as frustrating and as angry as you can get on some of the different things that the United States has done, you know, all of these European countries know that they cannot replace what the United States brings to the protection of the free world, the West, of which they're still included. They can't replace it, not in the near future, not in my lifetime.
And so they know, I think Secretary General Rute is really the leader to follow here. He gets it. And that is my hope that the countries follow his lead. All right, Rebecca. Thanks so much.
I hope the country follows your lead too. Anyone who has to go to New York from D.C. Because you were dexterious enough to have another mode of transportation and you didn't want to drive, correct? That's right. Didn't want to drive.
Absolutely. Rebecca Heinrich, thanks so much. Senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
