Vikings Under The Radar? (Hour 1)

Live from the play show yet not overly ostentatious studios of CBS Sports Radio here in beautiful New York City, sitting on top of the 10th floor of 345 Hudson Street. Welcome on in to a Thursday edition of the Zach Gelb show across all the great local CBS Sports Radio affiliates, Sirius XM, Channel 158, and that free Odyssey app.

855-212-4CBS, number to jump on in, that's 855-212-4227. You can always get at me on Instagram, where I'm straight flexing, or via the good ol' cesspool of Twitter, at Zach Gelb, that's Z-A-C-H-G-E-L-B. Jimmy Smith gonna join us coming up 20 minutes from now, we'll preview the Jacksonville Jaguars with him. We'll also be joined by Coach Dan Mullen at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific. Two good college football games to watch tonight, as you do have Florida up against Utah, Cam Rising not expected to play, and then you do have Nebraska going to Minnesota in the start of the Matt Ruhle era, going up against Mr. Row Your Boat in PJ Flex, so we'll connect for a few minutes with Dan Mullen at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific. And then to wrap up the show, we will do first and goal Seattle Seahawks style with Dave Wyman, former NFL linebacker for the Seahawks, and now a part of their radio broadcast team.

But first up, producing the extravaganza for the next four hours is no other than Hot Take Hickey. That T.J. Hawkinson is signing a four year deal worth $68.5 million, and it resets the tight end market, it's over $17.1 million a year, $42.5 million guaranteed, and it's the highest for a tight end in NFL history. My first reaction was, wow, because you look at T.J. Hawkinson, I know the Vikings valued him when they went in the division to get the trade with the Detroit Lions last year right before the deadline, but you look at those numbers, they're staggering. That's a lot of money where when I first saw $68.5 million, I go, okay, how much is that actually guaranteed? And then the $42.5 million, I was not expecting it to be that rich.

I really was not expecting it to be that lucrative. And the guy's a good player. I'm not saying he's a bad player, but I wouldn't view him as a great player. I wouldn't want to be a bad player, because if you're paying ten points in the NFL, you gotta be careful who you pay, and you know eventually they'll get a deal done with Justin Jefferson. He's their preeminent player on the team, and clearly their best player on the offensive side of the ball.

K.J. Osborne's a solid wide receiver. They just drafted Addison out of USC and also Pitt, and we know what he's done in his college career before. You get rid of Dalvin Cook, so you shed some salary there, and you go to a younger player that you just brought back. on a shorter deal in Alexander Madison and you look at the quarterback, yeah you're paying Kirk Cousins, but Kirk Cousins could be off the team at the end of this season. Now ultimately, I do look at Kirk Cousins and I do look at the Minnesota Vikings and I think the Vikings are one of the more disrespected teams in the NFL entering this season. Don't get me wrong, I'm not sitting here telling you the Vikings are going to Super Bowl. I'm not sitting here telling you the Vikings are this great team, but when we look in that NFC North all summer long, I've heard everyone say the Detroit Lions are going to win the division.

We love Dan Campbell and you look at that Lions team, they're very likable and usually when a fan base is tortured year after year after year after year and they start to show some signs of optimism with how the season ended last year, the Lions are absolutely a feel-good story and you want to root for them. But the Minnesota Vikings have got to a point where everyone has said they're not going to be as good as last year, no crap. They're not going to be a 13-win team, but how far do people expect the Minnesota Vikings to regress? This team with the offensive talent they have, bare minimum, will be a nine-win football team.

The Lions only won nine games last year, so I really do believe that Minnesota is going to win like 10 games this year. They're not going to be a great team, but they'll be good enough and they'll win this NFC North once again. You have a good quarterback in Kirk Cousins, you have a good tight end in TJ Hockinson, you have one of the more electrifying players in the league in Justin Jefferson.

I'm a fan of Alexander Madison, I like KJ Osborne. This is a really good offense and defensively they were horrible a year ago. They were 31st in the league and now you're bringing Brian Flores, you just have to be serviceable. If that defense could just be a top 20 defense, this team absolutely should win the NFC North. So I look at the Vikings team and I think people looked at them last year as the most overrated team in football and you weren't wrong, they got exposed in the playoffs. But heading into this season, I think we believe and a lot of people think that the Vikings are just going to fall flat on their face and I don't see that. I look at this Minnesota team as a team that is the definition of good not great. And good not great should be enough and will be enough to win the NFC North.

So yes, I was surprised to see what the numbers were on the extension by TJ Hockinson. You knew they were eventually going to pay him, I didn't think it was going to be this big. But let's be fair when we talk about the Minnesota Vikings, where they are not a bad football team. This team will not be below 500 at the end of the season. And I go through all the teams in the NFL entering this season. In the AFC East, no one's getting disrespected. People are questioning the bills, but I still think most believe the bills will win the AFC East. There's been praise for the Dolphins, there's been praise for the Jets, there's not a lot of reasons to praise the Patriots. In the AFC West, questions about the Broncos that are fair.

Everyone loves Kansas City, people don't believe in the Raiders, totally fair. Chargers, really good team, don't believe in their coach. AFC North, Ravens, can they stay healthy? Bengals we know are a great team.

Browns, how much rust is there still to knock off with Deshaun Watson? Steelers, always a solid team under Mike Tomlin. Texans stink, Colts stink, Jaguars really damn good.

And I think people are writing off Tennessee, but the Vikings are a better team than the Tennessee Titans. And you look at the NFC East, Cowboys, good not great, they'll choke in the playoffs. Giants, you want to see if there's any regression year two with this staff. Eagles, best team in the NFC.

Commanders, it all comes down to Sam Howell. Cardinals stink. Rams, Cooper Cup now set back, they're not going to be any good this year. 49ers, wonderful team, can they get enough production out of their quarterback? Seahawks, phenomenal.

When you look at some of the pieces on the offensive side of the ball, Bears will be improved. Lions, really good team. Packers, comes down to Jordan Love. Like you go through all these teams in the NFL, NFC South, you can't love any of them.

The Bucks are going to be bad. The Saints, you know, even if they win that division, whether they be eight and nine, nine and eight. Panthers, good young quarterback.

Do you have anything around them in the Falcons? I think people are believing. But when you look at a lot of the evaluations of these teams, I think for the most part, everything I just said is fair. Where if you go through all 32 teams that I just ran through, or 31, because they didn't include the Vikings on purpose, I don't think anyone could legitimately call up and say, Zach, you're a moron.

Or Zach, I totally disagree with you. Like, trust me, there's a lot of things you call me an idiot, a moron, and a dope for. And there's a lot of things you could tell me I'm going to be dead wrong about.

And it's up for debate. All 31 teams that I just gave you, purposely excluding the Minnesota Vikings, that's fair analysis. That's not being too bullish on any of these teams.

That's not being too low on these teams. But so many people tell me the Vikings won't win the NFC North. So many people tell me the Vikings are going to regress. And you're not wrong in terms of the Vikings regressing. No crap they're going to regress. They were 13-win team last year. They didn't lose like anyone scored games.

But just because you're regressing doesn't mean you're going to fall flat on your face. And I think a lot of people believe that this is going to be a 13-win team that then falls to like a seven or eight-win team. And there's too much offensive talent on this team as long as the quarterback stays healthy, he'll be good. You have all these wide all these wide receivers led by Justin Jefferson. Yeah, you got to see how Alexander Madison does with more opportunity with no more Dalvin Cook there. But this offense in a league that is predicated off offense now in the year of 2023 in a weak NFC and an NFC North that has a ton of question marks. Can the Lions take the next step? The Bears not ready to go. We don't know what Jordan Love's going to be. I'm surprised that more people aren't picking the Minnesota Vikings to win this division.

So Hickey, that's how I kind of react to everything today. In one point, I was surprised by how much TJ Hockinson got. But then I think the bigger takeaway here is that the Vikings for most of this offseason for a team that went to the playoffs last year and were horrible defensively up against the Giants in that wildcard game. They got Daniel Jones, that contract that so many people have been disrespecting them this entire summer. And I think heading into this season, they're the most disrespected team in reason in the National Football League.

Your thoughts, hot day, Kiki? Well, look, I mean, when you, they were lucky, right? A few games that's not going to repeat the Buffalo game or Josh Allen fumbles on the goal line. That's never going to happen again in your favor. So they are absolutely due for aggression. Just from the fact that you win 13 games, it's hard to surpass that number one and two, when you are up until the playoff game, you win every single one score game. That also does not happen.

But to your point, I agree with you. That's why I'm picking the Vikings to now in the vision, but go to the playoffs is if they quote unquote regress, they still have a good team to where if you have another 11 one score games, you could still go seven and four. That's a regression, but still a good record. And still, again, winning a lot of close games. You got a lot of offensive talent. I still have questions about their defense, which is why I'm not picking them to in the NFC North, but absolutely in a week NFC, they are without a doubt a playoff team.

They're one of the seven best teams, one of the seven best teams in that conference. And I'll go through win losses right now. And their first three weeks of the season, two out of the three games are really tough. And I have three tough games the first five weeks of the season. But you play Tampa Bay, that should be a win.

Tampa Bay doesn't have a quarterback right now. You play Philadelphia on a Thursday night loss. You play the Chargers. I think that game go either way. I'll say that's a loss.

I even try to be as pessimistic as possible here. Then you're at Carolina win. You play Kansas City loss at the Bears win. Play San Francisco loss at Green Bay right now a win. At Atlanta win. Saints win. At Denver win. Chicago, I'll even let them split against the Bears. So I've had seven wins right there. Heading into a bye week, you play the Raiders win. You play the Bengals, I'll even say loss. Then you play Detroit twice to end the year. Even if they split, that puts them at nine, and you have Green Bay too.

Like that was me being as pessimistic as possible. And that put them at nine wins. Nine or 10 wins.

And I think that's a fair analysis. Where I think the low point for this team this year is nine wins. And the high point for this team, I would say it's 11.

So sure, that's regression from 13. And yes, you lose Alvin Cook. But really, the key for them this season is going to be that defense. Offensively, they will be good enough. But defensively, all you have to do is just be 20, 19 in the league.

And if you could do that, that is more than enough to not only get in the playoffs in a week NFC, but win the division. And I look at Detroit, that's the team that everyone's going to compare them to to go win the NFC North. Detroit has a good roster. I like what Dan Campbell's doing. We'll see what Jameer Gibbs does in year one. Yeah, I like Kamara St. Brown. Jameson Williams out for the first six games of the season.

We'll see what type of wide receiver he is. And you look at their defense, their defense improved at the end of the season. So they're trending in the right direction, but now can they do it over the entirety of a 17-game season? And here's the one reason why I also like Minnesota more. Everyone's picking the lines.

The lines for the first time actually have expectations. People are expecting the Vikings to fail this year. And that's why Minnesota is going to, I don't want to say impress, but they're going to be a team that could say we had 13 wins last year. Everyone's writing us off. And you could use that as motivation. Good, not great. That's what they are. And I really do believe to win this division this year, you only need to be good.

You don't need to be great. And I still give the edge to Minnesota over the Detroit Lions. It is the Zach Gelb show on CBS Sports Radio. Who's a team in the NFL that you think is getting disrespected entering this season?

855-212-4CBS, 855-212-4227. We'll take a break. We've got a few more first and goals left as we go through all 32 teams. Today we'll take care of the Jaguars and the Seahawks. The Rams still remain and when we come on back, former Jaguar wide receiver also played for the Dallas Cowboys, Jimmy Smith will join us.

You're listening to the Zach Gelb show. The NFL season is inching closer each time now for first and goal on the Zach Gelb show. Time to preview the Jacksonville Jaguars will do so with the man that played for the Jags from 1995 to 2005 led the NFL in receptions in 1999. That of course is a great wide receiver in Jimmy Smith. Jimmy always appreciate the time. How you been?

Oh thanks for having me on your show. Well let me start you off with Calvin Ridley. The last time we saw him a full go on the football field he had nearly 1400 yards receiving the last two years. Not able to get on the field had the gambling suspension and some other things as well. Now back in the fold with the new team the Jaguars.

What are your expectations for someone that we know has done a lot in this league before? Well for me observing Calvin Ridley I didn't really watch him until he was signed by the Jaguars. I knew who he was. I knew he's from Alabama. I knew he played you know for Atlanta and you know knew he was a pretty good route runner but you know when just seeing him in the OTAs and in training camp oh my goodness clearly he's got to be you know top you know two or three in the NFL right now as far as route running. He is an outstanding route runner just a route running specialist and then you know it works out good for me even though it's expensive for gambling and you know he's apologized and he's taken ownership of it and that's what leaders do that's those kind of guys that you that you know when they make a mistake you know they own up to it and they take it on the chin and get through it.

You know that said somebody individual. I'm just excited to see him catching balls from Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars got to be the most exciting team the team to watch this fall and a lot of that is because of Calvin Ridley. And the expectations for Calvin Ridley and Trevor Lawrence that should be a dynamite connection and last year you know they bring in Christian Kirk everyone crushed the contract and then Christian Kirk shut a lot of people up. What did you see out of Christian Kirk a year ago? I mean he was he was an outstanding he was a thousand yards to get a thousand yards I mean that's uh you know he's the pro bowl receiver and uh you know with with with Christian Kirk Calvin Ridley and and Zay Jones you know Zay Jones is our third receiver on you know most teams Zay Jones would probably be a starter so in my mind we got three starting receivers if we go three by one along with having Travis ATM and even Tank Bixby which is you know my favorite player Tank Bixby is uh he's gonna be a monster he's a downhill threat man I just I'm just so excited about my former team and just can't wait to see uh see how they they perform this year.

Love it let's get to the next down. Jimmy Smith here with us if you were still playing in the league and you were still playing with the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence was your quarterback how would you kind of look at your quarterback and what would you think the type of quarterback is that you have? Well first of all Calvin really would not be starting.

I love that. Yeah yeah that's yeah that's the you know uh you know just by looking at his balls you know he he throws the tightest spirals they're very easy to catch you know he he has incredible uh intangibles you know he's six six strong guy he can run he can he can improvise and he can run when when when he needs to uh I mean last year watching him come back in that playoff game against the uh the LA Chargers I thought I was watching a younger Paige Manning the way he took control of that offense and drove down the field uh so I can't wait to you know to watch this team again this year. And it was great to see the year that he had because his rookie year was wasted because of the horrible coaching job by Urban Meyer and I got to give a lot of credit to Doug Peterson we saw what he did in Philadelphia no one liked the hire the guy wins the Super Bowl then comes into Jacksonville that's a team back-to-back year's number one overall pick and he takes him to the second round of the playoffs and it also seems like Doug is a really player-friendly coach do you have any relationship with Doug and how about what he's been able to do in a short time in Duval?

Yes I do you know he's a former player uh you know he he uh he gave my son a chance to come into that rookie camp and uh you know last year and uh you know for you know for him to you know to recognize you know how players who have sons and to just give my son a chance to actually you know stood up in a Jaguar uniform you know man that's I can't thank him enough and and now that I see he has a son that's uh just got signed to the the practice squad so uh he's a player's coach everybody likes him you know when you know uh and when you see that and you you go out and you break your back for the guy you know what I'm saying you want he's going to the Super Bowl he's going to the Super Bowl again he's going to take this team to the Super Bowl and it might be this year. How likely do you think it's going to be this year because that's the big question is that team got to the second round of the playoffs last year you still got Kansas City you still got Cincinnati in that conference just for starters you think they could you really think they could take that jump this season? If they won for Ted Henning last year for Kansas City they would have been they would have been in the Super Bowl or at least the AFC Championship but Ted Henning saved Kansas City Chiefs last year when Patrick Mahomes got hurt against Jacksonville. Ted Henning came in and drove 90 some yards and and that that's pretty much uh you know uh you know saved Kansas City until so Patrick got back off that that ankle but I see this team young hungry young is what I like young the defense is uh you know we got a couple people hurt but you know our front four you know uh I hate the fact that Hamilton is out for the season but we're going to rebound we got some young ends you know we got we're loaded we're loaded linebackers flow to the ball and uh you know offensively just watching the offense in the preseason even though it's vanilla it's going to be tough to game plan this offense because you don't know where the ball is going. Let's get to the next down Jimmy Smith here with us you talked about the defense I thought they got better as the season did go on I remember that Rashawn Jenkins get a few turnovers late in that season too I think up against Dallas was the game when you look at that defense I know what you said up front but how much of a step does the defense need to take this year with the high expectations that you have for this ball club? Well to see them just like you mentioned that uh that turnover against uh Dallas uh also the turnover that uh Josh Allen had against Tennessee Titans uh those are opportunistic plays and when the defense starts getting getting those opportunities like that I mean they're they're on their way they have the confidence uh to get takeovers and take the ball away from these offense uh you know we just uh I just can't say enough about you know this entire team on both sides of the ball uh we're pretty stout. Let's get to the final down Jimmy Smith here with us talking about his Jacksonville Jaguars so I'm with you I think expectations are high I think this team could easily get to a conference championship game this year they they should dominate their division the only thing that I wonder is this organization two years ago was in such a bad spot then they take such a big step I wonder if any complacency kind of sits in when you have that success how do you kind of focus back in to make sure that you could take it the next step further uh for this upcoming season? Yeah I understand what you're saying about complacency but we're not at that point yet because we've had you know uh a lot of those players that were that were I mean I'm not here you know you know some maybe a handful but uh any complacency coming from those those horrible years I mean we had two two years I believe or just uh just a horrible season just embarrassing I mean extremely embarrassing so we've if you really look at it we paid our dues as an organization and having those two horrific seasons you know uh and you know it's it's only right if we're going to have those two horrific seasons why not be in position to draft a player like Trevor Lawrence as a generational talent you know because we paid our dues can't pay your dues forever now we got a window and a chance to win the super bowl last we got a we got a generational player for the next 10 years you know we're going to be in contention no doubt about that well last thing I'll ask you um you played your college ball at Jackson State we know what Deion Sanders did the last three years now uh he's at Colorado getting set this weekend to make his debut for coach prime just what did that mean to you to see what Deion did at your alma mater and how do you think he'll fare at uh Colorado see I don't know if you have been watching jack and state this year but Jackson State looks better and they look like they have more talent than they had the last two years when coach prime was there so you know what that says he's laid the blueprint for jack and state that's the most important that he's left the thing that he's left behind he's there's a blueprint there and they are going to follow it because it you know before we we had no direction of how to you know I'm saying scheduling and and uh just just you know just football operations period you know it wasn't there with Deion he's brought all that to the table and and it's that that blueprint is there and all we got to do is follow it and man I tell you the way this team performed last weekend against uh South Carolina State who beat them in the championship game the last few years it was a beautiful thing to see the quality of football that those guys are playing you know before I could barely even watch jack and state play but now they look like uh I mean they they look real they look good quality football you know that I can look and and tell where the players are lining up their stances how they come off the ball their technique those players have it now and and now you're going to see some players get drafted at jack and state jimmy smith always appreciate the time thanks so much for doing this you have a great labor day weekend thanks for having me on your show you're listening to the Zach Gelb show we'll circle back in just a second on what jimmy smith had to say about his Jacksonville Jaguars but we opened up the show and my take was saying that the Minnesota Vikings are the most disrespected team in football entering this season and it's not even me saying that the Vikings are this great team I just think they'll be a good team this year and everyone says they won't win 13 games and they're not wrong but I almost feel as if the decline that people expect isn't going to be as great of a decline as what people think where yeah if you go from 13 wins to nine wins that's a big decline but nine and eight bare minimum should still get you a wild card spot in the NFC and I do think the Vikings are going to be a 10-win team I think they'll go 10 and seven and they'll just edge out the lions to get into the playoffs so I'm surprised how whenever we talk about playoff teams in the NFC where we all know the Eagles are a lock the 49ers are a lock the Cowboys are a lock and you know you get into the rest of the conversation it seems as if people are latching elsewhere in terms of looking at the the playoff teams even in their own division where a lot more people are more bullish on the Detroit Lions and the Vikings entering this season and then also Hickey you had the Vikings get this big-time extension done with TJ Hockinson it also illustrates another point and this shows you maybe the most underappreciated man in football is Brett Veitch who's the general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs because I'm looking at the average annual value of salaries there are three tight ends in the NFL that make more per year than Travis Kelce and then you look at the quarterback position as well we all know Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football there's one two three four five six quarterbacks that make more per year than Patrick Mahomes and we know Mahomes is the best player in the league now and Travis Kelce is also a top 10 player in the NFL that's what great general managers do they are not only able to keep their great players and you'd be an idiot to get rid of Mahomes or Kelce but you get their deals done early and you save money on them and for Mahomes he's been buying into Kansas City he's wanted to do that long-term deal it's the best bargain in sports and for Travis Kelce at his position it's a great bargain he's the fourth highest paid tight end per year in football but that dude is clearly the best tight end in the sport and a top 10 tight end of all time eventually will be a top five tight end I would think of all time and that guy is not even the highest paid tight end at his position and there's three guys in front of him from Mahomes he's not even the highest paid quarterback and there's six guys in front of him that that once again just shows you why the Kansas City Chiefs are in the position Hickey where they are right now because that's a masterful job at Brecht Beach absolutely it also helps when you have a quarterback that's willing to do it like Brady did with the Patriots for all those years willingly I mean in Mahomes case he's not taking less he's still the highest paid quarterback but in terms of average annual value spreading it out over 10 years knowing that hey I may on a year-by-year basis not be the number one guy but also that allows guys like Chris Jones maybe now Travis Kelce to get paid and other guys as well to get paid selflessness from the top and I think that does trickle down as well which is huge but also the foresight from Brett Veitch where you knew that you had something special clearly in Patrick Mahomes but how many teams you see go give a quarterback a 10-year deal at first people were like oh how can you do that we all know he's great but you don't know what he's going to look like maybe potentially in six or seven years or something like that a lot of these quarterback deals are four or five-year deals and to have that that just thought of let's go with a longer deal to help us more down the road it's a remarkable job by Brett Veitch all righty let's go out to the phone lines and we'll circle back in on the Jaguars 855-212-4CBS 855-212-4227 I mentioned the Vikings I knew this guy was going to call in Scott in California Scott getting ready for another season of Vikings football right how you doing today sir I'm doing great Scott what do you got are you the real Zach Gelber did someone uh you know doppelgänger because I uh I was so enjoying your your Viking it wasn't a it wasn't a hot take it was a true take um but I was so pleased that you're giving them time and talking about them that I didn't didn't even notice the corner area I was having but um well Scott you don't like to admit this and I know you listen all the time and we appreciate this I am the most realistic person about the Minnesota Vikings on the radio last year you called me every week and told me all these things about how great the Vikings were and I kept on saying to you they're a good team not a great team they're better than what their record says they are and this year all I'm saying is once again they're a good team not a great team and that should be good enough to win that division this year and I think they're getting disrespected where it's one thing to say you're going to regress and they should regress off that number of 13 but it doesn't mean that they're gonna stumble and look like the the drunk person coming back from the barn and face planted into some bush well I I agree with that too we actually as Viking clans are ones right now we we don't mind being the underdogs we kind of like people not talking but for the last year I was I was tooting my horn it stopped after the Giants game if you didn't notice but um I was also going to ask you you know Kevin O'Connell was his first year so he's a first year coach that went 13-4 and Queezy was the first year GM and do you have you heard any reason why Kevin O'Connell wasn't considered or was he considered for coach of the year he did a heck of a job last year people were talking about him but that Vikings roster and thanks for the phone call Scott was in a much better position entering that year than where the Giants were and that's why Brian Daybal won coach of the year because he made Daniel Jones look competent he got Daniel Jones you know paid big Saquon Barkley was finally healthy but you look at that roster who were the receivers last year like they got Isaiah Hodgins off the street from Buffalo and Isaiah Hodgins was their number one wide receiver in a playoff game and I got to give credit to Brian Daybal too because a big part about coaching is delegating he brought in the right defensive coordinator in Wink Martindale and you know what Hickey here's another part too I'm really curious those two coaches where you look at Kevin O'Connell you look at Brian Daybal both over exceeded last year they overachieved in expectations no one before the year would have said the Giants were going to make the playoffs they were the biggest dumpster fire in the league you could argue with that four to five year run at least from a record standpoint if I would have told you for the year the Giants made the playoffs and won the playoff game you would tell me that like I'm smoking crack or something and then you look at Kevin O'Connell to get 13 wins in year one I know the playoff game was a disaster if I would have told you for the year that the Vikings would have been a 13 win team you would have said I was crazy so you look at both those coaches you know this league the number one thing is adjusting and now there is a full season of work as a head coach of what a Kevin O'Connell team looks like and what a Brian Daybal team looks like and both those teams entering this year people expect them to regress but I don't think regression is the worst thing in the world other people are catching up and the Giants have improved their roster bringing in Darren Waller bringing in Bobby O'Kara-Kay on the defensive side of the ball you have younger players taking a bigger step and then also you look at Minnesota it's really trying to fix that defense and you take away Dalvin Cook so I could see why people are saying both those teams are going to regress and I don't think the Giants are going to make the playoffs I think they have a chance to make playoffs but you know they could easily be a wildcard team I just think they're going to be outside looking in the Vikings I've laid out how I think about both of them but that word regression is usually filled with a negative connotation because you're not getting better you're going backwards but just because you're going a little bit backwards doesn't mean that either of those coaches for this year are going to be viewed as a disaster just that in year one they went to a level for both those teams where those teams should not even have been close to sniffing where they were at a year ago. Like linear progression every year is not really attainable for the most part and I think so many fans get caught up in this mindset of oh they won 13 games last year and now they're gonna be even better this year without a doubt and now we're gonna get 14 and go to the Super Bowl like not every year is up up up up and up and so even if you don't win 13 games does that mean the Vikings now are a bad team if the Giants don't make the playoffs this year and maybe a tough you know tougher division and you lose out even though you got you know barely got in last year it's like one of those where it's not the end of the world and taking one step back does that mean now everything you accomplish in 2022 is all doom and gloom? So I'm not comparing the Giants to the Vikings to the Patriots but I think people forget this and it just shows you how sometimes when you regress you could still find a way to go have a monster tenure or monster run where you look at the Patriots when Tom Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe after the Mo Lewis hit. They won the Super Bowl that year back in 2001. The next year the Patriots missed the playoffs. Now there were people that were saying up was this just Cinderella with Tom Brady did they mess up you know get him rid of Drew Bledsoe and then you saw what the Patriots able to do be the most dominant team in the league two years after that and I really do believe people forget that yes the Patriots won three Super Bowls out of four years 2001, 2003, 2004 even Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off a Super Bowl and I know they weren't the way that we view Bill Belichick and Tom Brady now they regress to a part where they go from in the Super Bowl one of the great runs one of the shocking runs of all time to the next year missing the playoffs and they were still able to regroup after that so even when you have and that's the ultimate success there's going to be regression and there's going to be a tough time and then it's how do you build and how do you find the way to get the ship or the train back on the tracks and that's something for me where you look at that's the standard of football last 20 years Belichick and Brady even they had regression and even you know after they won three out of four years they didn't you know I know they won 718 and won that one year where they were on the verge of being undefeated but after that and I got to another Super Bowl in 2012 they went 10 years without winning a Super Bowl so even the greatest dynasty of all time even had periods of regression now I'm not telling you that the Vikings or the Giants are going to be be that but just because you had this remarkable year one even if you slide back a bit in year two it's not the end of the world let me ask you this though another team that had a great year one and now we'll see what they do in year two the Jacksonville Jaguars Jimmy Smith was really bullish on that team he said Trevor Lawrence reminded him of a young Peyton Manning in the playoff game and we all know how we both feel about Trevor Lawrence we're big fans and then he said it Doug Peterson's going to win a Super Bowl in Jacksonville and it could be this year do the Jaguars need to be thrown into that Super Bowl contending conversation Hickey today no midway through the year maybe but right now going into the season I don't think they are better than the Chiefs the Bills or the Bengals and I still just want to see a little bit more to put them in that upper upper echelon so let me just say and I know you can't do it this way but if the Bills Bengals and Chiefs don't get to the Super Bowl where would you then pick the Jacksonville Jaguars how many teams would be in front of the Jacksonville Jaguars if those three teams can't get to the Super Bowl in the AFC zero so they're the fourth best team in your opinion okay I would put the Jets slightly in front of them but I can't crush you for saying it Jacksonville because Jacksonville to me is a top five team in the AFC they have a division that they're easily going to win 11 or 12 games in total you have a defense that got better at the end of the year and offensively if Calvin Ridley could just be 85% of what he was two three years ago he's a stud you have Christian Kirk Evan Ingram Travis ATN Zay Jones that line is going to need to be better that's a big key for them and that could be what holds them back from taking that next step but Doug Peterson we talk about people being underappreciated Doug's right there guy won a Super Bowl no one wants to give the guy credit with how it ended in Philadelphia and people ready to run him out of town and the next thing you know he goes to Jacksonville team had back-to-back number one overall picks and Trayvon Walker needs to to take a big step this year and look what he did in a an organization that was a terrible culture year one takes him to the second round of the playoffs but you that team's not going to regress this year like what I mean in the they'll be better than they were last year in the regular season the postseason is a different animal especially when you have all these loaded teams in the AFC but I do my power rankings right now in the AFC and it's funny because you know I could pick the the Dolphins to win the division but I don't think the Dolphins are going to be a team that are going to a Super Bowl in terms of getting to the Super Bowl the teams I have the most confidence in the AFC would be Chiefs one bangles two bills three jets four and then the Jaguars in at five offensive rookie of the year draft next that helps show CBS Sports Radio