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It’s not football season yet, but there’s a lot of NFL QB moves going on

The Adam Gold Show / Adam Gold
The Truth Network Radio
March 11, 2024 3:28 pm

It’s not football season yet, but there’s a lot of NFL QB moves going on

The Adam Gold Show / Adam Gold

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March 11, 2024 3:28 pm

Connor Livesay, The 33rd Team, on Russell Wilson going to the Steelers and where he believes available rookie QBs will go in this year’s draft.

What does Connor look at as a decent pairing? How is THIS scenario interesting, in Connor’s opinion? Is this an over evaluation of Baker Mayfield?

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The Adam Gold Show
Adam Gold

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Call clickgrainger.com or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done. Welcome to the first day of legal sports wagering in the state of North Carolina. We made it. We did.

It took way longer than it should have. Well, that's the North Carolinian way. And I do believe we will be allowed to wager on how many quarterbacks will be selected in the first round of the NFL draft. And if I set the total at four and a half, let me ask my next guest, Connor Livesey, from the 33rd team. You mock draft. More than four and a half or less than four and a half quarterbacks taken in round one?

I'm going to have to take the over there. I think Bo Nix to Denver might be picking up a little bit of steam and that might come from a trade-back scenario. I think you can pretty much bet on Caleb Williams, Drake May, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy being first-round quarterback to this point. Then you add in the Oregon Bo Nix to the mix, maybe the back end there in the first round, and that gets you to your over in five.

What do I win? We don't know yet. We might lose. It might just be four and a half.

Or maybe enough people will go to take the over and all of a sudden the over is at five and a half. What chance do you give Michael Pennix of being also a first-round quarterback? I do not think Washington quarterback Michael Pennix will make it into the first round. I think that ship's kind of sailed for him.

Again, there's tools there. There's things that you can kind of dream on with him. I think from a consistency standpoint, he had a lot of struggles to end out the year. He doesn't have that athletic ability and just the mobility that some of these other quarterbacks ahead of him have that you kind of worry about from him being a guy to create off script. So, I think he's a guy who's probably going to be your sixth quarterback off the board. Him and Spencer Radler are kind of two guys who I see in a similar sense with, like I said, those top five guys we talked about being first-round guys.

Kind of a tier above Michael Pennix and Spencer Radler. At Connor NFL Draft on Twitter from the 33rd team, Connor Livesey is joining us here on the Adam Gold Show. Before we get back into the the mocks and all of that, Russell Wilson is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Do you think that was the right move for them or should they maybe and maybe they will delve into the draft at quarterback later on? It really didn't make a lot of sense from their perspective when they signed Russell Wilson, mainly because Russell Wilson isn't a guy who throws the ball over the middle of the field a ton. And Arthur Smith issues in Atlanta with Desmond Ritter and all the quarterbacks he cycled through this year where they weren't great quarterbacks going over the middle of the field. So, I think that makes an interesting pairing for an offense coordinator whose offense is kind of built around targeting the middle of the field, that deeper third in the middle of the field.

And then Russell Wilson, who's really been known for the deep balls outside of the numbers and then, you know, kind of move in the pocket with those legs. So, that'll be an interesting scenario. Like I said, it kind of blows my mind sometimes when you see that pairing and just go, what were they thinking when they did that one? But I think they got them for what?

A million, 1.6 million dollars? Something like that? Yeah, it's an upgrade from, you know, from where they were at dealing with Kenny Pickett. You know, it's a big upgrade from that.

I guess you can think of it from that sense. So, it's worth the risk, but the fit in the pairing just didn't make a ton of sense. And it wouldn't shock me at all to see, you know, we just talked about, you know, Spencer Rather, Michael Pinnock, you know, if they fall to them in the second round, third round, something like that. Maybe they take a flyer on a day two quarterback to develop under Russell Wilson and maybe look to just kind of break the page with Kenny Pickett. Connor Livesey from the 33rd team at Connor NFL Draft is joining us here on the Adam Gold Show. Did the contract for Baker Mayfield, and I realize that nothing has been signed yet because I don't know that you can do any of that, but maybe they can because it's Tampa and he's resigning. Did that contract or is it a hundred million over three years with 50 million guaranteed? Did that make sense to you or is that an overvaluation of who Baker Mayfield is?

I think it's a little bit of both, right? Like, I think when you look at Baker Mayfield, you probably don't view him as a 30 plus million dollar quarterback. You know, you see that number and your eyes kind of get big. But I think when you look at it to a sense of, you know, $50 million guaranteed, it kind of turns into a two year, $25 million a year guarantee, you know, deal that if he plays well, then sure. He'll stick around for that third year, play out his contract and then go back to the drawing board there. If Baker Mayfield reverts to the, you know, the Carolina Panthers or into his tenure in Cleveland quarterback, they can get out of that after, you know, the second year with not a major, major cap hit, dead cap hit.

So I think, you know, when you look at it in terms of we've been, you know, so accustomed to when we see those numbers pop out on Twitter to kind of freak out and then they come out, you know, two hours later, the actual contract details of the guaranteed money. And then you can kind of break it down from there and see, okay, you know, only $50 million guaranteed. Like even if he, you know, he's terrible this year, they could, they could, you know, eat all that money in, in one, you know, one year and it not kill them, you know, where we're just called Denver, what, $90 million.

He cares the next two or three, you know, it's funny with the, with the Russell Wilson and Denver Broncos thing. I'm just, I'm reminded of the scene in Moneyball where, you know, Brad Pitt is talking to David Justice and a mix, a mixing actor and character here saying the Yankees are paying us $8 million for you to play against them. That is, or they're paying you $8 million to play against them. That's what they think of you. Broncos, the Russell Wilson scenario, they wanted him out so badly that they're eating 80 some odd million dollars worth of salary.

It is, it is incredible. I'm just curious your thoughts on this issue and I don't know how much you really consider this or not, but we can go back three years to the 2021 draft. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance went one, two and three, Justin Fields and Mack Jones were in the teens and only one of those guys is going to start next season with the same team that he was drafted by. It looks to me like the other four are probably with maybe the exception of Justin Fields done as starters in this league.

And I think the jury is still out on whether Trevor Lawrence is anything other than a good NFL quarterback. Is it that hard? Hey, it's Adam Gold and I'm in studio with my friend Coach Pete DeRuta with the Capital Financial Advisory Group. Is it ever too soon to seek out you and your expertise? Really there's no too soon. It's time to get serious. So if you're 50 or over, we call it the financial red zone and that's when really it's time for you to take control of your money and make sure you have a firm on your side that's a fiduciary planning firm, which means they take your side at all times. Now, we'll do this for the next 10 of you to call.

This is a thousand dollar value, but I'm going to waive my planning fee to make sure you get your total retirement plan and you get on the right path for retirement. Call 888-843-0013, 888-843-0013 or text ADAM to 600-700. Adam Gold is a Pete's books and investment advisory services offered by Capital Financial Advisory Group, a North Carolina registered investment advisor. I think it is very hard to find a quarterback that you would say, you know, like you said, I think you can say that Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback. I think it surprises me that so many people get offended when you kind of put him in that good category and maybe a little bit of uncertainty surrounding him because, you know, he was kind of a golden boy coming out of college. He was supposed to be this trans, you know, it just is supposed to be such a generational talent coming out of Clemson and he hasn't really developed into that. And it's just so interesting to me, the kind of narrative surrounding Trevor Lawrence, because you see it, you know, with a guy like Justin Herbert, people all the time are like, what is Justin Herbert done? And it's like, well, Justin Herbert really wasn't like viewed as this generational style quarterback coming out of college. He was the third quarterback, I think, drafted in his draft class. And it's like Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be that guy.

The only thing he's done in his career is have a monumental comeback against Justin Herbert's Chargers two playoffs to go where he threw four interceptions in the first half. And, you know, it's interesting because, yes, I think it is very hard to find that top five, six, seven-ish quarterback in the NFL. I mean, the same guys have been in that conversation for what feels like a long time. And again, you haven't seen some of the, you know, Justin Herbert's probably working his way into that. It's so long been the Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allens, Lamar Jackson. You know, Kyler Murray was a guy that has fallen off a little bit. So, you know, you got your three or four guys who, you know, we're always going to be at the top of the list and then finding that next tier of guys.

And that five through seven, eight is kind of, you know, where you, you hope to find a guy, but finding a guy better than those guys is very hard to do. And you bring up that draft class, you know, those were supposed to be, that was supposed to be the draft class where you're supposed to be able to find four or five, you know, franchise starting quarterbacks. And we have one, and like you said, there's plenty of questions surrounding that one guy that was supposed to be the golden boy.

I mean, it's just amazing. That's only three years ago. And, I mean, Mac Jones is going to return a sixth round pick three years. I mean, Justin Fields, it doesn't sound like Justin Fields is getting much more interest above that, which is, you know, to just make your point even stronger. It's like Justin Fields has been, you know, thrown through the mud a little bit here over the last year or two, but he hasn't performed well. And then you're like, man, we have another first round quarterback that, you know, people thought was going to be this guy. And it's like, he's really like the draft capital you're kind of hearing as he's getting, you know, in trade conversations is a day three pick.

And that's just, yeah, like you said, it's crazy. I mean, well, he's a super athlete and he has flashes of good. Would it surprise you if three years from now we're treating this quarterback class the same way? No, I think you can kind of make the correlation between the two because you have, you know, again, we didn't know this at the time, but you have a Jayden Daniels who's known more for his legs and his arms. He can fit into the Justin Fields role. You have Drake May, who I think at his best looks a lot similar to a, you know, a Trevor Lawrence.

It runs a big prototypical, big arm guy, but the flashes of inconsistency, the turnovers, like that's been some of the issues that Trevor Lawrence has dealt with. And then Caleb Williams, like I said, I think, I think I told you this when I was on with you guys, you know, a month or two ago, like I still have Drake May as the top quarterback in this class. I know that's not a popular opinion, but I think when you watch two guys play, I think you can make the case that high end quarterback traits, Drake May shows those on tape more consistently. He's got that size that Caleb Williams doesn't. And he just, I think he's got people roll their eyes when you say it, but he's got more of that elite arm talent on tape than Caleb Williams. You see Caleb Williams make a lot of crazy throws off platform throws. It's kind of like comparing the Patrick Mahomes arms to the Josh Allen's arm. Like Josh Allen's got the bigger, stronger, higher velocity can make more of the just absurd throws and Patrick Mahomes, but Patrick Mahomes can do kind of the lower arm slots.

He can do some crazy things too. But I think you're comparing two really good quarterbacks there, but I don't think Caleb Williams is a slam dunk generational quarterback that everybody's trying to make them out to be. And then, like you said, you know, when you look at those next three or four guys, you got a lot of guys who are going to get drafted in the first round. But what they turn into two or three years down the road is kind of a big question mark for me.

Yeah, and also where you go and the coaching you get when you get there, the team around you, all of that matters. We saw that with Bryce Young in year one. By the way, it's a very popular opinion here where we live that Drake May might be the best quarterback in this draft.

Connor Livesey. So before I let you go, you also do a lot of work covering the Dallas Cowboys. So I don't know. Why did you laugh?

Why did you laugh at that? This is always the roughest week around Cowboys fans. Is it free for opening day of an opening week of free agency? It's like the darkest period of time for for Cowboys fans around the country. But here's my my own curiosity is about and this is we're going to stay with quarterbacks here. Dak Prescott, who I think is a top 12 NFL quarterback, which I mean, that's your look.

You're a playoff quarterback, in my opinion. So this is not a knock on Dak Prescott. The last time he was due for a contract, Jerry Jones kept kicking the can down the road. And while the contract eventually didn't look horrendous, it cost them more than if they had handled it prior.

He's going down the same road, isn't he? Like if Dak has a good year, it's going to cost them a lot more money than if they just did it now or they still not sure if Dak Prescott is the guy. For the ones who work hard to ensure their crew can always go the extra mile and the ones who get in early so everyone can go home on time. There's Granger offering professional grade supplies backed by product experts so you can quickly and easily find what you need. Plus, you can count on access to a committed team ready to go the extra mile for you. Call click Granger dot com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.

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Save up to 25 percent your first year at lifelock dot com slash aware. Like their free agent strategy, draft strategy, they want to do things their way. They want I mean, again, they've lost. Three to four starters and free agency and free agency kicked off an hour and a half ago. And all of those guys other than Tyler B. Oddish, like Tony Pollard, you knew there are some mutual interest in there. But, you know, he went out and got $8 million per year from the Titans.

They were probably in the four range. So if you're constantly trying to shave that four to $5 million off of a player's contract, like you said, it's going to get pushed down the road because, you know, the player in his agency is going to say, We're not signing a deal $5 million cheaper than what my players worth. And, you know, I think, like you said, it just kills them because they get to the end of this. And the harsh truth for the Cowboys and Cowboys fans and Dak Prescott fans and Dak Prescott haters is if this can gets kicked to next year, you're either one going to pay him an ungodly amount of money because he's going to be a free agent. And we're getting ready to see with Kirk Cousins what money looks like when you're a really good quarterback that hits free agency. And that's what we're getting ready to see with Dak Prescott next year if it doesn't get done. And, you know, again, we've talked about accomplishments and everything is, is as good as the statistical aspect of Kirk Cousins career has been Dak has him beat from a statistical standpoint, you know, made it further in the playoffs. Like Kirk Cousins is liable to get $65 million at some point coming up here from the Atlanta Falcons, or if he comes back to Minnesota and that, you know, again, you kick that can down the road again, it's the number 60 right now. By the time we get the next year, it could be 67, 68.

You're going to be looking at $70 million a year for a franchise quarterback solely because you didn't want to pay him 60. You know, eight months ago, and it's just, it's not, I don't understand it. I can't wrap my mind around it. I can't even come up with a logical reason why they do things this way, but it's the way that they want to do them.

It's the reason that Marcus Lawrence, you know, took them to the bar and it's the reason that Zach Martin's been able to Ezekiel Elliott. Like we can go, go on and on and on about all these players that they've, they've tried the penny pension as contract negotiations and they lose every single one of them or they lose out on the player. And then they put themselves in a really bad spot when it comes to free agency in the draft and they have a whole longer roster.

So it's just, it's not a great way to do business, but the way they want to do it and they think they got it figured out. It certainly worked well for them so far, right? They've they're stacking playoff wins on top of playoff wins. And we've, we've, we've kind of joked around about Kirk cousins and I'll, I'll borrow a term from my friend Bamani Jones.

He is in the ski mask hall of fame. Kirk cousins, right? I mean, he was just good enough that Washington didn't really, they didn't want to commit to him, but they didn't want to completely move on and kick him to the curb. So they franchise tagged him twice and then they let him go to Minnesota and he signed that crazy contract and he's good to a point. He can't win big games. He can't win primetime games and he can't win playoff games, but he's good enough to get you there.

And ultimately you, you, you, you wake up and you go, you know what? He's just not, he's just not that good, but he keeps making tons of money being just good enough to lose. Yeah. And that's just the nature of the business, especially. And when you let those, those guys, those guys who, and again, you know, like I probably see Dak, you know, is the eight to nine best quarterback in the NFL. And you know, when you let the eight tonight, the best quarterback in the NFL hit free agency to where again, all these teams we just talked about that missed out on the Justin Fields and Max Jones, but they have a chance to go get a guy who has won a ton of regular season games and their teams haven't. It's like, okay, we got, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars of cap space. We're bad. Why wouldn't we just give this guy $75 million a year?

And hopefully he brings his regular season success to us. We can, you know, it's just, that's the nature of what we've gotten to. And the, the, the biggest nightmare for NFL front office is around the team is having a top 10 quarterback reach free agency. That's why you just never see it happen. You never see, you know, the two franchise tags. It happens with Kirk cousins of Dak, and they have a lot of leverage in these contract talks now because of that.

They took that, put a no trade clause in this contract that, you know, you put a, you can't use a franchise tag on the, on, in this contract because of the way the negotiation fund the first time. And when you allow that guy to potentially reach free agency, I mean, you're, you're in a very dangerous spot to, you know, especially for a team that doesn't spend in free agency. You're in a very dangerous spot to have, you know, a guy who's won you a lot of games and been a part of a lot of good seasons that hasn't resulted in playoff wins. So that's, you know, the argument for some deck, you know, naysayers is, Hey, I'm good moving on, but can be a scary option when you go, Hey, this guy's, you know, normally a 10 to 12 win quarterback for us.

Let's stick with that. And then you go, let's go try to find the next Justin Fields or, you know, at the time that sounded exciting. And so you get four years down the road and you go, Holy crap, we might've not made the right decision.

The fifth round pick for him, uh, kind of live. See, and again, I can't wait till they, uh, they write a book, the cowboy way written by Jerry Jones, uh, which there's a joke, uh, there's a joke somewhere in there. Uh, Connor, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much for doing this. We'll talk again. Yes, sir.

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Whisper: medium.en / 2024-03-11 17:44:20 / 2024-03-11 17:54:02 / 10

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