NCAA vs FSU vs ACC

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For the ones who get it done. You can watch Andy Staples on YouTube. You can even hear Andy Staples talk about the bubble of the NCAA tournament. I gotta admit, Andy, I know you're new to morning stuff. 8 o'clock is when The Andy Staples Show airs on 3's YouTube channel. I don't know why it was a culture shock to me, but bubble conversation.

How'd you deal with that? Oh, listen, we got to. We got to pretend to be experts on college basketball in three weeks. Nobody knows, man.

And you're right, nobody knows. Although, UConn's really good, so that makes it pretty easy. Yeah, but they're not on the bubble. But UConn's not on the bubble. It's not football where there's only four teams and you lose once and all of a sudden, alright, are they going to get in?

I don't know. It's kind of funny. I would love to pour truth serum down everybody's throat in the committee room during the football conversation and Georgia lost. Didn't most people think that Georgia was still the best team? I would imagine that a few did. In this particular case, I don't know that they definitely felt that way.

But yeah, it's very interesting. And you always wonder like, what if Vegas did it? Well, if Vegas did it, Georgia was still in the 1C. Yeah, no question. And after watching the Orange Bowl, you're like, I don't know. But no, the basketball level is fun because like in my past life, I covered a lot more college basketball. So like E. Forbes at Wake Forest got to know him when he was assistant to Tennessee.

Just a great, great guy. And so now he's trying to get, they got that quad one win just because Florida won the other day. And so the December win helps them out.

But they got to win these next few or they don't make it. Yeah, the ACC has got a bunch of teams. Look, I've been talking about how the ACC honestly, in my opinion, I'm trying to be honest about these things. It's not that the ACC is so much better than people gave it credit. I think that we're judging it against conferences that have gamed the system and I'm talking to you, Big 12. Because the math, they have cracked the math code.

And I thought we would have gotten somebody smart from Georgia Tech to figure this out. Like, yeah, why are you guys scheduling good teams? Just schedule trash, beat them like crazy, and then your power rankings look good. It's not pure trash. It has to be decent teams from not great conferences that you can crush.

That seems to be the real code there. There's a lot of teams in the 200s on the Big 12s schedule. We didn't decide to do this based on our basketball conversation. So let's get to the thing that really jumped out at me yesterday. And it was a good thing we were running a taped interview with John Feinstein when I first saw your story. This is a true story because we had John to talk about the late Lefty Drizell.

And that interview is running and thankfully I talked to John and it's 15 minutes minimum. And all of a sudden I'm reading your story on On 3 about how Florida State has an opening now to potentially negotiate their way out of the league. I'm going to let you explain it, but I always thought that when Florida State filed their lawsuit with all of the things they mentioned in it, that it was always designed to bring the Atlantic Coast Conference to the bargaining table to negotiate a settlement and their exit. But you pointed out something in your piece yesterday that the ACC might have opened the door for that in a lawsuit filed Friday. I think the civil court system in general is probably designed to get the parties to the table to negotiate their own settlement. They don't really want you to go to trial. And I think in this case neither side can afford to go to trial.

I think that the probability of a verdict is aggression, not entirely sure, but it's not zero for either party. And if Florida State were to lose a trial, they are stuck in the ACC forever because, well, I'm 2036, because at that point, then you can say, well, unless you want to give us half a billion dollars, then we're good here. And then if the ACC were to lose a trial, everybody could just walk.

And so you can't afford to have either outcome. So they're going to have to negotiate at some point. And so what was interesting is in this court filing that the ACC made in the Florida case, because remember there's two. The ACC sued North Carolina, Florida State sued in Florida. And so the ACC in this court filing is actually rebutting one of Florida State's claims. So Florida State had claimed that being required to buy back your television rights from the grant of rights is too punitive.

And the ACC is saying it's not punitive at all. It is simply you could either be a member or the alternative to being a member is buy your rights back. And I believe that the turn of phrase their attorneys use was it's simply a commercial possibility, which I thought was very elegant, very elegant. But the thing is, and look, we've seen a grant of rights get negotiated.

We saw it with the Texas, Oklahoma exit from the Big 12 a year early go to the SEC. So it's not like this doesn't exist, this concept doesn't exist. But the ACC in trying to protect that grant of rights and spending years not letting anybody see it, they wanted it to seem that it was impossible to get out of. That there was no way, not even buying your way out.

Well, now they've said in a court that you can buy your way out. All that means is there's a number. The question is, what's the number? And then the Florida State attorneys have estimated that between the exit fees and the amount of TV rights, the max number would be like $572 million. So there's your ceiling. Your floor is zero because that's what Florida State is saying.

It's saying these are unenforceable penalties. If we win the lawsuit, it's zero. The floor is not really zero. Like if you told Florida State today you're out of the ACC if you pay us $150 million, they will raise the money and wire it by the end of the day. So that's probably the real floor.

So somewhere between those two numbers is the number they're going to land on. Because I don't think either one can afford to go to trial. Andy Staples is with us from On3 and a great piece. And you can also catch Andy.

And by the way, go get the archive show on YouTube where you talked about this with the folks from WarChant who are great people as well. Here's, I don't know, maybe I'm looking at this from the wrong position, but I don't believe the ACC can afford to settle. I think if they settle, then it's a line at the door with all of the other schools who also want out. That's happening anyway. That's not going to stop.

But if they win the lawsuit, so many of the parts of this conversation are given. Clemson would like to go. Miami would probably like to go.

North Carolina, although based on recent decisions at the state legislature, North Carolina would like to go, but attached to them by a pretty strong lanyard is also NC State. Which, I don't know, maybe that won't be an issue, but clearly the state legislature is trying to protect the interests of the Wolfpack here. So there are a lot of schools that would like to go, but if the ACC allows Florida State to go, then ultimately they're going to lose, more than likely, a good chunk of those schools, which means the ACC ceases to exist. So I think they're better off in terms of just, hey, we think that the grant of rights is ironclad, it will hold up in court, and this league will stay together unless all conferences are gone by 2036. Okay, so here is the alternative to that, though. If the ACC were to lose a trial, it doesn't exist anymore anyway, and it gets nothing out of it. So your Boston colleges, your Syracuse's, your Wake Forest get nothing. No offense to them. I wouldn't hang on to the league based on them.

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Grainger for the ones who get it done. You do allow people out and people with a number with a big number. We're talking 300 350 million plus right. And the people who have invites to the SEC or the big 10 or who can get invites to the SEC or the big 10 will pay that.

If the SEC or big 10 does not want anybody else. Well, they won't pay it. So everybody who's left there now gets left there with a pile of cash, right? A big pile of cash because, let's say, if the number is 350 million. And four teams leave. That's 1.4 billion dollars in cash right now.

Time value of money. You can do some stuff with them. Oh, no, there's no question. So you probably make yourself a stronger conference than you would be.

If you were just lose the case, you just lose the case, then it is all all dissipates. But if you make the price sufficiently high enough, nobody's leaving for the big 12. You're only leaving if you can go to the big 10 of the SEC. Right.

That's the number. Nobody's leaving. If leaving for the big 12 would be like the dumbest thing ever. Because ultimately you're leaving for the same deal.

You lose so much money. But the thing is, if you can leave for a full share in the SEC of the big 10. I do think there are schools in the SEC that would have that option. Because I don't think anybody, like I know the Florida State suit says it would apply retroactively to 23 and they would be out before the 24. Nobody's leaving before the 24 season.

Schedules are made. But let's say before the 25 season. If that were to happen, you have 11 years left on the SEC deal. You're going to make 35 to 40 million more in the SEC or the big 10.

It all it's kind of break even at that point. All right. Let me ask you this.

Andy Staples from on three. How many ACC schools have the soft landing of either the big 10 or the SEC? That's the big question because I you know, you have to kind of wonder with the big 10 in the SEC now working together as a what do they call it? An advisory group.

What's the master plan like? And I don't know. I don't think they actually have them. They should have called it the Alliance. Let's be honest.

That would have been funnier. Yeah. Yes. But I don't know that I don't think they have a master plan. I really don't. I don't think they're going into this planning on we're going to create a Super League and you're going to be the AFC. I don't think they're actually planning it.

That doesn't mean I don't think that's what's going to happen, right? It's just it may just that that's common sense once things move forward is how it has to happen. But I would say Florida State and Clemson by virtue of their football brands and the thing and then UNC obviously is covered by the big 10 in the SEC guys.

No secret. It has been that way for a long time. UVA is actually covered by the the SEC and the big 10.

I also personally this is just me. Right. I'm not speaking for TV executives anywhere, but I would find it hard to believe that there's a version of big-time college football that wouldn't include Virginia Tech and NC State. I just feel like those programs are the right fit for big-time football. They act like if they their fans are, you know, ridiculous.

They're awesome. Like I think that would be a crime if they weren't involved in it. So I think and we know like you mentioned the UNC and NC State think Virginia and Virginia Tech have been tied at the hip since Virginia helped Virginia Tech into the ACC. Yeah, they're going to protect one another. They were a hostile helper. But yes, they did not want Virginia Tech initially.

But John Castine the governor at the time said although they're in otherwise, we're voting. No, right exactly. And then and so I imagine you're going to get the same thing again. So I would hope that's what can happen. And I don't know exactly how it distributes to this funny because like the SEC right now.

I wouldn't expand if I were that like at 16 their products pretty good. Like you look at their schedule. It's awesome. If I'm the Big Ten though, if I'm the Fox people that are running the Big Ten. Because they released their new schedule, their 24 schedule. I can't remember exactly what it was.

I think it was in December. And then like a week or two later the SEC released its 24 schedule and it's like, oh God, that's way better. So if I'm the Fox people running the Big Ten, I would love to be able to sprinkle Florida State and Clemson across nine schedules. The question is, would the Big Ten presidents feel that way? The dirty secret is that the Big Ten isn't that good a football league.

It's got huge schools. The current Big Twelve, thankfully they're adding Oregon. Washington, I guess we don't know what the future of Washington is with the coaching upheaval. But Oregon and Southern Cal automatically bring good football and that would add to Michigan and Ohio State. And I'll throw Penn State in there, but that's five of however many. And nobody else is playing really good football in that league. I've been arguing for years, I think it falls on deaf ears, that Wisconsin is one of the great frauds, the great cons on college football. I think Luke Sickle could actually make Wisconsin one of those contenders.

Could, but I'm just saying that in... It will depend on how they handle it. Over the last decade, they've basically been taking advantage of the fact that the West is terrible. Right, the West Division, which you're going to see Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois come to the rude realization that the style of football they play will not work in the Big Ten as a whole with no divisional schedule.

Yeah, it shouldn't work in America with any schedule. Gosh, it's a race to who can score the least. Like, the over-unders, the totals for Iowa games this year got comical. They couldn't set them low enough. They went under.

Yeah, couldn't set. We did it every week. Oh, what's the total on Iowa? Oh, it's 29 and a half under.

Easy, easy. We picked the Iowa under on every show, or every week on my show. Every single week we picked the Iowa total. We actually picked a couple overs. Got them wrong.

They went over twice, but we got them both wrong. That is just so amazing. Andy Staples is joining us at andy underscore staples from on three.

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Call click Granger com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Will there be conferences in five years regardless of what the outcome is here? Are we going to have conferences or we're just going to have a top flight of major college football that involves and you said this to me about two years ago about 40 teams. That would have worked like when I and when we were talking about that two years ago. If you told me the big 10 in the sec we working together. I said, there's no way not happen.

Now that they are. I have no idea what's going to happen. I have no idea how it shakes out because it was easier when Kevin Warren was a commissioner, the big 10. Because Greg thinking Kevin Warren didn't get along so you could you could very easily say, well, these two aren't going to work together. So they're going to always be at odds.

Now that the Tony petite is the commissioner of the big 10 and he and Greg Sankey seem to get along very well. I don't know where it goes. And that's what like I said, I don't think they have a master plan right now. I don't like I know everybody wants to believe that they have this master plan. They're going to take over. They're going to, you know, cast out these schools and include these schools. I don't think that's the plan. I think in their hearts of hearts, they would like to make this work in the most kind of traditional college football way possible and they will find very quickly. That's not going to work.

Well, they already killed that make all these changes. Yeah, I mean to even pretend I would call BS on that in a minute if they tried to if they talk about the student-athlete experience or anything like that. Like come on, please stop. We're just trying to grab as much money as we can and I don't even mean until what I mean, it's just going to keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger because that's what football is. But that's it's all this is is a money grab. That's I mean, there's nothing else about it 100% and and perhaps it's the right sizing that the top division in college football should not be 133 schools. No, it should be 50 schools. But even if it's 50 think about that because you've got this is not a power five anymore.

We had a we had a poll on the show. We said we're going to call it the core for because the Big Ten and the SEC are different from the ACC in the Big 12. They can't be the power for but the core for makes sense. And but if you think about that, that's 60 with them in Notre Dame, I think you're 65 or 66. I'm bad at math, but that's that's it.

So if you did 50 then a bunch of those don't make the cut either and I'll have to get rid of some of this often. It's going to it's going to crush people. They have to get rid of some existing schools.

Also at some point if they want to do this, they want to make it like legitimate top flight where it's merit-based and not just hey you used to live here. We can't get rid of you. I mean if that's what they're that's what they're calling Vanderbilt a rent control department.

Yes, exactly Vanderbilt Northwestern Indiana. I mean, I mean wheat from chaff. Let's do it. But look the the notion that they're trying to do this in some way to resemble anything that remotely, you know, looks like tradition or you know, what it no it did. They're just going to go full Premier League and I'm good.

I love the Premier League. So if it's all merit-based Nation States can buy schools and we'll go from there. Well, listen FSU is looking for private equity.

They are hey, I suggested to Jim Phillips a long time ago. I would have saved the league live ACC football who stuff who's who's saying no. Nobody's saying no to that sports washing the ACC. They don't care about the return on investment live golf isn't returning. They don't care. They just want in so they do and so just imagine that imagine if Jim Phillips had taken your idea and just the piles of money and do can wake for a sudden like an outspend. Ohio State Michigan.

It's still Duke still would draw 22,000 for a football game, which is sad because the program is good. We could talk about this all day. Andy Staples at Andy underscore Staples on three hit the show at eight o'clock in the morning and I know you're adjusting to the time, but I think you're doing a great job. So thank you so much. Thank you Adam. Appreciate it.

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