Gambling will be legal in NC…eventually

If you are a regular listener of this show, you understand that every day, at roughly 150, we do a segment called Place Your Bets.

And we are upfront. It is not legal as of yet in the state. Well, it's legal, but we don't have the mechanism yet in place in North Carolina to place wagers, just like whip out your phone, bop, bop, bop, push some buttons and do it.

I mean, there are people who do it, but it's not yet available to the regular citizenry. But it is a massive industry. And Doug Kazarian is joining us now on the Adam Gold Show. His new venture is called PlayersOnly.com.

Last time I spoke to Doug, he was with ESPN. And he has been at right on the crest of this industry becoming mainstream and all the popularity in sports wagering becoming above board. And it's about time. And he joins us. You feel good about not only the new venture, but where the industry is headed.

Yeah, good to be with you. You know, no one really knew what to expect once legalization hit five and a half years ago. We didn't know how much the leagues would be comfortable with it or the networks and which states would come. I mean, we knew New Jersey was initiating it.

So here we are five and a half years in. And I think it's good where it is. There's some things that I'm not crazy about, but, you know, like anything, you got to, you know, break a few eggs to make the omelet. Right.

What what aren't you crazy about? Well, I, I was hoping that it would take on a path much like kind of the stock market. Right. And it's, that's really like how it should be viewed. I'm of the belief, but it's going sort of towards the European model in some ways, which I think is cool too, where it's like a vice and entertainment only, you know, not to be, I guess what I was thinking of the stock market, it should be viewed from a intellectual way as the market stock market, not necessarily like a retirement fund. Right.

Just like discussing stuff, conceptualizing it. But right now I think it's in a very sort of lottery ticket approach where I don't know, I'm just gonna throw out a number, but this is not a random thrown out. It's like 85% or whatever of customers of these legal operators are using like one and $2 parlays and trying to do like 11 legs and trying to make $30,000 or something like that. And they're just being fun. I mean, they're not going broke or anything like that.

And because it's one, $2 stuff, a lot of these companies and TV networks are getting sort of reckless as well, having anchors give out picks and stuff like that. And that's fine. If that's what the consumer wants, like, I'm not going to tell you what the masses do. I just don't know if that's like the long-term way to go about it. And that's just not stuff I'm going to be doing.

Like, you know, for lack of a better word, it's a lot of grab. And you know, that's fine. I just think there's other conversations you can have around it where it's in between the, you know, the $1 parlay world and the yelling at the screen, 900 number screening, absolutely free guaranteed with I'm not trying to go that route as well. I just think there's a way you can talk about stuff, talk about games in a smart way. And, you know, simulate the day to day existence of a regular sports better, not about just a parlaking $1 better.

It's almost like the difference between because you like in the stock market, it's the day trader versus the investor, right? Right. I just but I don't think it's a lot. It's really going the lottery ticket approach right now in terms of content and everything. And I just think there's a better way to do it. We can talk about a game and have the entry point being force betting or whatever. Right.

You know, it's you talk about an intellectual approach to it. Doug Kazarian, playersonly.com is joining us because there's so much information. And that's the way it used to be. I used to have a friend.

Now I'm even forgetting exactly which company he worked for. So it was all about research and trends and tendencies and looking at games and players and situations and using the information that you could glean from past performances and all that to try to determine future outcomes. That was a more intellectual approach to doing it. I'm sorry, only players, not players only. Why don't I get that wrong?

Only players.com. My fault for messing that up, Doug. So just looking at it from an intellectual standpoint, is that what you're talking about? Well, yeah, it's more like so right now, I think a lot of the content out there, whether it be networks or whatever, they've substituted sports radio, conventional sports radio with betting sports radio, which is great. And I think it's smart because a lot of people are betting and we don't need to rehash where LeBron ranks all time, whether he's better than Jordan or not. I just want to, you know, change the channel.

I can't change the channel faster. So I like how we're doing it that way. I just think when it comes to betting, there's just like a smarter way to do it. And I also think people don't know a whole lot. Right. So I think there's people who do like myself and what we're trying to do with our content and our business model is distribution.

Right. So we know there are partners out there that want content. So that's what we're doing with our distribution of our content and radio written and TV. And then we're also trying to have appeals to the consumer in the same way. And which is all obviously all that intertwined where people can come and sort of like just watch a couple of minute clips here and there and be brought up to speed with everything going on. And I think that's what we're trying to do. Doug Kazarian joining us only players dot com. There needs to be a smarter host of this radio show.

So we don't screw that up. And I apologize to Doug. Just thank you for coming on. I'm really sorry. I blew that. All right.

Let me get into some some other things. First of all, what do you make of this fact? Because if research is important and research is I think I saw this earlier today that in the NFL this year, if you bet the under in every game, you are roughly 60 percent successful. Does the NFL have to adjust to the NFL?

Does do the people who set the lines have to adjust or is it just that's what it is? No, it's a great question. And it's a talking point we did in our segment called Betting Buzz.

I'm about to tweet out of two minute video on how I reacted to that. So that's the question. So right now it's sixty one and a half percent. And just so people have context, if you were successful with your betting at 50, I don't know, seven percent, you'd be crushing.

Yeah. So sixty one and a half percent is outrageous. So I talked to a couple of makers and they think they think between now and the end of the season, the overs and unders will be about 50 50 because the markets will adjust.

So it has adjusted. So about half the over under for this weekend are 41 and under, which is really low. But also there's quarterback regression, right? I mean, look at some of the quarterbacks with DeVito and injuries and things like that. And he said one guy specifically said, he goes, look, it's not like scoring is going to go up because of weather, right?

The wind and everything. So he's right. Like scoring is not all of a sudden going to start going, getting better and better. But I think it's just really important to my, my, my overall takeaway is if I already like an under based on the matchup, I'm probably going to bet more on the under because of these trends in the quarterback play, because it's also red zone offense across the league is being poor. And then it's also just an execution of, you know, how people are like, like for example, Monday night, the chargers were, had a comfortable lead on the jets and they're like, we're not messing around. Clock is more important. We don't respect the other quarterback, but let's just grind out three runs, not mess with it. And then we'll, we'll be fine. Now on Sunday night, the Bengals had the ice, the game, and they threw deep on T Higgins on the first play right at the end of the game.

So I think it's a little bit of both, right? I think if you respect the other team's quarterback, you may hear more inclined to pass. And that's if you really like your quarterback too, like since he does Joe burrow. And then if it's another situation now granted, they were one score game versus the jets were up two touchdowns before the scoop and score. So I think it's more like, we don't respect the other team's quarterback, which is often the case delicious run the clock. I think that's why these, a lot of these games are dying at the end. And I think we have to keep that in mind.

Yeah. Also you, you mentioned it before quarterback play, not good, not good at all in the national football league, by the way, this is, this is not pro football college football. I'm not sure you can set the total low enough to convince me to go over in an Iowa football game. Iowa, Minnesota, the total was 30 and a half easily stayed under Iowa Northwestern total was 29 and a half easily stayed under. I last I looked Iowa North Rutgers this week is 28 and a half. And again, I, how does Iowa get, how does an Iowa game get over? I just don't, I don't, I made the mistake of betting the over last week in the Iowa game, 17 total points 31. Well, I also thought Northwestern's offense was picking up and things like that.

So there was things I reasoned behind it, but yeah, it's really just three yards and a cloud of dust is to the Nth degree. So, uh, to your point, there, there is a market correction here and at some point the over will hit, right? Like, yeah, it has to question the betting market's stubborn and it doesn't always adjust enough.

So don't, you know, we can't, you know, we're, we're taught at a very young age, the house always wins. Yeah. When the math is clean, right? When the, when the roulette wheel, the crash table, you know, the math is clean with the, it's just a fixed odds, right? Like it's just, it's, it's clean math. But with the market like this, we don't really know what the right number is to make it 50 50 in terms of like an Iowa game.

So, um, the stats can only do so much. The math isn't as clean and thus there are edges on the under and it's going back full circle with the NFL. Like it's just one of those things where yeah, there are, there are edges in the under Doug Kazarian only players.com. Joining us here on the Adam Gold show before, before I let you go, um, it, it, we do it as an entertainment vehicle. Um, we, uh, today's game, uh, I've got a DJ Moore touchdown and the bears to win as a parlay, uh, Bryce young over 25 rushing yards as a prop, uh, stuff like that. We try to have fun. Is there, um, is there a sport that you just enjoy, uh, wagering on whether or not you feel like it gives you the best odds or anything like that?

Uh, I wouldn't, I would not wager on it unless I had an edge. That's just where I am in my career. But, but I have edges through my inner circle and stuff like that. And that's what we're trying to capture on the show and on the, in the venture. So I would say, uh, you know, my, my best sport is WNBA to be honest. Um, but, but I enjoy it all. And really, uh, the NBA is sort of like my, um, you know, bread and butter, if you will.

All right. Is there a sport that's frustrating? Say that again, please. Is there a sport that's frustrating?

I mean, aren't they all? Yeah. It just seems like there's more like superfluous points at the ends of basketball games. Like we get into a foul situation, all of a sudden the total, like, wait a second, that was an easy under. And all of a sudden we blow it up, blow it over by like 10 points.

If you think about it, and this is why there's ways to approach it differently. But if you think about it, all these sports change in the final, whatever it is, 6% of the game, right? You have hockey that have hockey poles, goalies, football, you have the prevent defense stuff, right? Basketball.

You have the fouling with the Chuck and duck threes of the other side. So all these games in the last few minutes completely change. So you're handicapping a game based on the first 95% of the game. And then the last 5% is where all the hijinks is.

So that's why a lot of times I'll give out first half totals for sides team totals. There's ways to get away from that noise and the variance. And that's some of the handicapping involved in where your experience comes in. Right. And that's how I can explain a lot of inefficiencies in the market and or where the edges lie. And that's the stuff that comes over time. And, you know, people have a lot to learn about this stuff, which is fine because you know what? It was federally banned five years ago.

So if people aren't proficient, I think that's okay. I just think people should try to learn a little bit and glean some wisdom and get some direction rather than just throw out $1 parlays because, you know, these sports books are paying celebrities to talk them stuff that's just not for their benefit, much like state lotteries. As a kid, I marveled at the fact that I was watching stuff on TV, usually late at night. And Gabe Kaplan was hosting a gambling show. Mr. Cotter was hosting a gambling show. And I could not, I couldn't square that in my brain. Doug Kazarian, onlyplayers.com.

I'm looking on the site right now. I guess you like the under between the Panthers and the Bears, which, I mean, why would we think anything else? I've seen both of these teams play. Doug, I thank you so much for the time. Hopefully we can do it again. Likewise. Thanks for having me on, Adam.

You got it. Doug Kazarian here on the Adam Gold show. It is onlyplayers.com. And yeah, they do videos.

Not to be confused with OnlyFans. It's not. Whoa. That's not.

What are we doing? I don't even know what you're talking about. PlayersOnly.com. I don't even know what you're talking about. Excuse me.

There's plenty of athletes on there, too. Oh, are there? Yes. I have no idea. I mean, I don't know. Yeah. Right. OK. We should probably do a rerun.