Duke and NC State came away with two different types of losses last weekend

Uh, Chip Patterson, not crazy, my friend. Cover3 Podcast, CBSSports.com. Appreciate your time as always. Let's get, uh, let's get right to it. I want to start with Duke and Notre Dame real quick from Saturday night.

Uh, and I want to, and I did this Monday, I wanted to pay Duke the ultimate compliment by criticizing them for blowing the game against Notre Dame. Not that, I didn't really have a problem with the decision to punt. I thought there were three, uh, three choices and any one of them was defendable.

Uh, I actually think that they took the one that I would have chosen. Uh, whereas worst case scenario is you give them the ball to 20 as opposed to the other scenarios where you give them the ball really no worse than like the 33 yard line. Um, so, but I thought they blew the game because they were the better team and they should have won that game, especially in the second half, because I thought they had a chance at the playoff the way they were playing and with their wins. Uh, how crazy am I to say that out loud? To put a path in front of Mike Elko's Duke blue devils that includes not just beating Notre Dame, but then going on to win, you know, crucial games, uh, against NC state, Florida state and Louisville, uh, to go up against North Carolina, uh, to be able to round out what could be an undefeated or one loss season as they show up to play for the ACC championship is not crazy, but you're not doing any of that without Riley Leonard. Right?

I mean, you're, you're, you're, you're spinning forward in a future where we've already had to make a big course correction. No, look, I want to go back to the person who said Duke's defense was the best individual unit on the field on Saturday night in Wallace Wade stadium. Duke's defense is the reason why I believe that Duke is not going to suddenly see its entire campaign fall off a cliff because that group has gone up against Garrett, Riley and Kate club. And that group has gone up against Sam Hartman and Notre Dame's office.

And that group has been so, so strong. It Duke's defense did enough to be able to win that football game. Um, you know, obviously you're keeping Sam Hartman from converting a fourth and 16 would be the one thing that, uh, that would have, you know, changed the outcome overall, but overall, this is silly ACC championship caliber defense. But I do think that it has not been an ACC championship caliber offense for the entirety of the season. And so the college football playoff feels like a little bit of a stretch, but this is still very much a team that even with the loss of its star quarterback to me still has its strongest unit for now, at least mostly intact.

Yeah. But here's the thing in the second half, their offense was good. The second half, they ran the ball effectively and they made plays in the passing game when they could not run the ball and really abandon the run or maybe even didn't really even attempt the run. They came out almost exclusively early as a throwing team. And I'm sure that was the game plan to maybe loosen up Notre Dame's defensive line. So, uh, Duke would eventually run it. But finally in the second half, they said, screw it.

This is who we are. We're going to run the ball. And they were effective doing it. And then that opened up some plays in the passing game. I think their offense was very good. They ran the ball for over 150 yards in the second half. So they showed good offense. Uh, and if they stop Sam Hartman from picking up fourth and 16, still don't understand how that happened.

Um, then Riley Leonard doesn't get hurt. And the blue devils again, the, to me, the shocking statement for people would be, what do you mean Duke would have a chance to be in the playoff? Clemson ain't bad. Notre Dame is good.

If you had those two wins on your resume, I'm not saying they would have run the table because it's hard to run the table, no matter how good you are. Uh, but, and their schedule is tough. Florida State on the road, Louisville on the road. I mean, heck NC State at home, isn't going to be easy.

North Carolina also on the road. I mean, there are plenty of potential losses on their, on their calendar, but I also think that there's only one game where they're going to be even a significant underdog and that's going to be at Florida State. Uh, I don't think there'll be a significant underdog at Louisville. And I definitely don't think there'll be a significant underdog at North Carolina. Uh, this Duke team is very good when, when they are completely healthy. Let me now let me fold this into the rest of the national picture. Uh, because to me, I'm just paying them respect by essentially criticizing Duke.

No, no moral victories, uh, walking off Wallace Wade Stadium. How many teams right now, I, cause I think the number is enormous, have a chance to be in the college football playoff in your opinion? Ooh, nine, maybe.

Well, I think the number's bigger than that. Um, but yeah, Adam, you're not always butt heads at this time of year because you're, you're very open-minded about like what could happen and all of the potential paths. And I'm a little bit more of looking for a certain caliber or a certain quality, believing that over the course of a full regular season campaign, that your flaws are going to end up preventing you from being able to accomplish even what seemed on paper like the best possible outcomes. I think Florida State is the only team from the ACC that is really going to be in the mix for the college football playoff. By the way, I think you're ultimately going to be right in the number nine and I will be wrong. Um, but, uh, cause I'm just writing them all down now and I, uh, I agree. I didn't put UNC on my list. Yeah. I mean, you know, you've got three out of the big 10. Um, um, you've got one and a half out of the FCC and I'm not even sure about the half. I don't, it's just one question. It's about the one. Yeah, I, me too.

Yeah. I like, I think Oregon's the best team in the PAC 12, well-rounded both USC and Washington have flaws on the defensive side of the football. And they've got a chance to, you know, beat each other up just a little bit.

I think Texas is outstanding and will show its class and caliber this Saturday against an Oklahoma team has been a little bit puffed up by a soft schedule. You know, I've, I'm kind of looking at this where the big 10 at the conference that has a good chance to get two teams in. Um, and then you've got, you know, Texas, you've got a Florida state, you've got a Georgia, and then, you know, whoever can survive the gauntlet, that is the PAC 12. That's kind of how I see those, you know, top five or six spots shaken out at the end of the season. I've got, I, in like in review, I have nine, I have nine teams. I don't have Notre Dame on that list, although I probably should with just one loss at home at the horn.

Uh, you know, 10 men, they got a red card just like Liverpool. Uh, so Notre Dame with 10 men unfortunately could not beat Ohio state. But other than that, if Notre Dame were to win out, Notre Dame would certainly be, uh, be in that playoff mix because that would include some pretty impressive wins, including a road win at Louisville who has proven to be at least good. Um, and then Southern Cal is the week after that in South Bend. Um, but yeah, Georgia, Florida state, Texas, I don't see any other schools out of the, out of those three leagues really being true contenders, Ohio state, Michigan, Penn state, USC, Oregon, Washington. Uh, there are a lot of other good teams though, but no, no teams that I think are the caliber to go undefeated. Uh, you know, maybe with one loss, we didn't, we probably wouldn't have put TCU on the list back at this time a year ago. So it's kind of weird, uh, but it just feels like it's more wide open. Does it feel that way to you? And is it because we have different teams in the mix?

Ooh, I like that theory. No, I've, you know, when I'm doing my analysis, the chip olytics are showing the top come back to the pack, right? Like if the teams at the very top of the season, when I'm looking at power ratings going into the year have all dropped Ohio state Notre Dame, we come out of that game and I dropped both teams. Um, you know, this is, uh, like across the board, we've really yet to see that truly dominant, what are we going to do with this juggernaut? Um, Auburn ran the ball for 200 yards against Georgia's supposedly vaunted defense. I mean, we've got to now look at Georgia and say, okay, that's a group that is nowhere near the standard of what we're used to Alabama, nowhere near the standard of what we're used to Clemson clearly nowhere near the standard of what we're used to the fact that it's different teams makes it feel wide open. But I would still say that the number one, number two, number three teams based on what they have shown on the field are not as strong as the number one, number two, number three teams in previous seasons, teams get better shocking. That's why coaches make millions of dollars to try and help these guys improve over the course of a regular season campaign. I, I just think that right now the really, really good teams are not as far ahead of the pretty good teams as they have been. And that's what gives the idea of it being a little bit more wide open, but when you really start to boil down to like, okay, well, who do you see coming out of all these different parts of the country that there are tiers within a conference, right? So Florida state is not perfect, but it is without a doubt the best team in the ACC, Georgia, as I just mentioned, not perfect, but without a doubt the best team in the sec, those kinds of scenarios, or at least making it easier to pare down the picture, at least from where we sit right now, your TCU comment, absolutely, absolutely worth taking into consideration. But I think the top tier looks gettable, but like we are not going to have a 2007 and this was actually a good note that was brought up by my colleague, but Elliot on the cover three podcast, you know, because it feels wide open, there's been a lot of mentions of the season of 2007, which was absolutely crazy. Number one and number two teams kept losing.

Everybody would cycle up and then lose. And sure enough, we get ourselves the two lost national champions in LSU at the end of the year. Do you know how many top 15 teams have lost outright as a double digit favorite through five weeks of the season?

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It's unknown if so tick to has the same risks as jack inhibitors. Call 1-888-SOTYKTU to learn more. One. One. The Clemson Tigers to the Duke Blue Devils on Monday night in week one. It feels like all these top teams are gettable, but we have not seen those kinds of upsets at all so far with those top 10 top 15 teams. Chip Patterson is with us as he is every Wednesday as we talk college football. Who are, when, give me the Chipolytics top four right now. All right, right now the Chipolytics, I know Ohio State is my is my number one. And most of that's honestly because of the defensive side of the ball.

Like they are they are in absolute terror right now. Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Penn State. And your Chipolytics look at Michigan and ignore the fact that they have played basically high schools. They have gained more. Do you know about available yards percentage?

No, I do not. OK, so I've heard you guys talk about it, I think, on the cover three. Yeah. Kickoff goes out of bounds. You know, the touch back, you get the ball at the 25. Your available yards on that drive are 75. It's 75 yards. So what percentage every single time that you get the ball, do you reach all of the OK, take it all the way.

Yes, I have heard you guys talk about it. Yeah, you can do available yards, percentage offense. You can do available yards, percentage defense. Michigan is basically number one in that. You've also got the amount of time that Michigan has trailed or led in games. You've got the amount of time that Michigan has led by double digits in games. Like I know that we joke about game control from those early college football playoff days, but at some point, the way that you are playing has to matter and not necessarily be docked by the fact that the level of opponent that you are playing Michigan has done.

I mean, they're just playing with their food in the fact that they don't seem to be taking it very seriously or doing anything creative, but they don't have to do anything creative because they are doing the absolute most you can do to play successful football and only needing, I don't know, an hour and a half of football to get it done. I mean, these Michigan games are done in like 245 with the new clock rules. So I that's why I've still got Michigan rated really high. OK, here's my my counter to that is who you play impacts those numbers and East Carolina, again, all respect one and four only win over Gardner Web. UNLV and what a school from the Mac, right?

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. No, we do not boast about the ATC's four and one record, but ignore Bowling Green beating Georgia Tech. No, no, no, no, that is the Bowling Green win over Georgia Tech.

That's fine. I got no I got no problem with that. I have no problem with slamming Georgia Tech for losing that game. But those are Michigan's three non-conference games. Plus Rutgers, right? Plus Nebraska, who's terrible. And to me, who you play matters in every sport known to man.

Who you play matters. I'm not saying that Michigan is not great. I'm just saying that I think the jury is still out on how great they are based on who they have played. And we see compared to Georgia, they've done better like Georgia, Georgia to Georgia and Michigan have played soft schedules. Michigan has been better against the soft schedule than Georgia.

Yeah, I got no I had zero problem. Like, again, I'm not saying that neither of those teams are good. But if I were ranking, if I were an AP voter, there is no way I would have either of those teams number one, because at some point I need to see what you have done. So Texas or Florida State or Ohio State or Penn State, these or Oregon. These would be better teams for me or Michigan or even Washington. These would be better teams for me because they have at least accomplished something.

And I don't believe Michigan and Georgia have accomplished anything at this point. And I will say if I was an AP voter, I would not strictly go off power rating, especially not once we've got more than three or four games into the season. I think it more informs betting decisions and picks and how to compare teams against each other rather than to me, an AP top 25 ballot does need to include, you know, rewards for wins regardless of who they are against and does need to include, you know, the who you played, who you beat, what's your best win, what's your worst loss? Like those those things that we associate with human polls.

I do think that that's what it would happen. And when I fill out my CBS Sports 133 ballot top 50 spots, I don't just go strictly off the power rating, right? That would just be something that, you know, is another another data point to use, because if we just go off the power ratings, Clemson still a top 15 team. If we just go off the power rating, then LSU does deserve to be top 25. When I think it's ludicrous that LSU is in the top 25 at three and two in the most recent AP top 25 poll, like at this point in the season, I would rather reward Louisville. I would rather reward Air Force James Madison teams that have done nothing but win football games, then prop up a team just because its power rating is strong, because guess what? The power rating of any team with a talented roster is going to be strong because the power rating is built up your recruiting. So I, you know, I don't like to use that as my total measure, but certainly it is an important data point when we're trying to figure out Georgia is going to cover 14 and a half against Kentucky.

All right. Final thing for Chip Patterson, and then I might ask you a Ryder Cup question. Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, all it. Well, Texas, not at home at the Texas State Fair, but it is the Red River rivalry with Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, who is more likely to lose this weekend? Texas only because that game is bonkers, right?

You know, I've got very I this is this is some fun that we had today. Maryland has what look like in a vacuum to be some really strong defensive numbers. And then you look at the fact that they've played Indiana and UVA and Charlotte and Towson, right?

And maybe that defense is not all it's cracked up to be. I think Ohio State will have no problems there. I think that for Kentucky, it's going to be really hard. I understand Florida is not a good football team this year, but Florida to Georgia, back to back Georgia in Athens at night. I think that's a really tough ask for a Wildcats team that may have poured it out.

They poured it out against the Gators. So, yeah, I'll go back to deep fried treats and saying hello to Big Tex and the Texas State Fair. But I do think Texas wins.

It is only my knowledge of how wild and weird that game gets that says that they are the most susceptible to lose. All right. Final thing for you, Chip Patterson. This is indulging each other because of our love of golf. What was the most critical decision at the Ryder Cup? Patrick Cantlay not to wear a hat.

All right. I can't top that even though I have an actual golf decision, so I'm not even going to try. That was ridiculous.

What a clown show. My buddy Gary Parrish put it this way. Like Patrick Cantlay, you might have a point. I'm going to tell you that point is not going to land. Right.

Like the hat doesn't fit. For adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis who may benefit from systemic therapy or photo therapy. Don't take if you're allergic to so tick to serious reactions can occur before treatment get checked for infections, including tuberculosis. So tick to can lower your ability to fight infections. Don't start if you have one serious infections, cancers, including lymphoma, muscle problems, and changes in certain labs have occurred. Tell your doctor if you have a history of these events or if you have an infection or symptoms like fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough, or if you have history of hepatitis B or C liver or kidney problems, high triglycerides, or had a vaccine or plan to so tick to inhibits tick to which is part of the Jack family. People 50 and older with heart disease risk factors who use a Jack inhibitor are at increased risk for certain side effects, sometimes fatal.

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Carvana value tracker visit carvana.com to start tracking your car's value today. Listen, we've been in those golf trucks. They can make anything fit, right? We can, we can get extra grooves on your wedges. We can bring in shirts and pants. We can make microscopic decisions to all clubs and apparel.

We can't, we can't get a hat that can fit right. Sure. Patrick, I get what you're doing. I'm just telling you that in this moment, the way that y'all are getting one up and down this golf course, your, your, your point is not going to land golf fans back here.

State. It was dumb. And on that note, we say goodbye to my friendship, Patterson cover three podcasts, cbssports.com. We'll talk to you next week.

It sounds good. Y'all be well. Unbelievable. That is true. That was like the hat. It's just, they can't find a hat that fits. You know, he said the same thing in 21. Just can't find a hat that fits.

Like Patrick Cantlay was always going to be on the team. I bet they could have found a hat that fits because of course that was a lie. It's just a lie. And no golf media just kind of chuckled and moved on.

Nobody wants to challenge these guys on. It's like, come on, that's, stop, stop, stop BSing us. It's all right. But that's the way it is. There was a critical decision that was made at the Ryder Cup. This is not a negative one.

It's a positive one. When, for those people who care, when Luke Donald chose to play alternate shot foursomes first, it took away the Americans. It shouldn't have, but it did. It took away Zach Johnson's ability to put Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth out first because Zach didn't want to use them in alternate shot, which of course is dumb, but that's what it did. It took away the Americans best advantage, which is a bunch of guys who make a lot of birdies. And once they were down 4-0 in foursomes, that was a hill too far to climb.