Win totals are in, so which ACC school come out on top?

Today the governor of North Carolina, Roy Cooper, signed into law the sports wagering bill.

I'm sure it has a fancy name, but I don't know it and that's okay. We will allow, we will be allowed. My guess is probably, well, maybe on January 8th, I doubt it. But eight months from now we'll be allowed to wager on sports. Chip Patterson, Cover Three podcast, CBS Sports joins us as he does every Wednesday.

How are you my friend? That's, we're gonna place bets here. I heard that's a thing that's done often here on the Adam Gold show. We, yeah. I'm happy to participate. Very, very concentrated little portion, but we're gonna expand it today.

It actually comes up in, in about 25-30 minutes. All right, let's, um, just in the spirit, because I know you guys do this on the Cover Three podcast. You do win totals.

That's the easiest thing for people to comprehend. I do have a question, since I have not done this yet. When I look at the win totals, does that include whatever bowl game you might win or lose? It does not.

These are regular season wins. Oh, man. It's gonna alter, this might alter my selections here. You're right, it won't. It's an ACC team in a bowl game. Don't actually think that that's gonna be an extra one. You can't count on it.

Oh, man. What a shot. What, it's not, it's not like we're the Big Ten. That's, no, the Big 12 was actually the, the one that had the egg on its face, because the Big 12, you know, gets all the credit, and I'm among those giving it credit for how all the games are so competitive. Right. The teams are not that far apart from each other.

It's so entertaining. You never know who's gonna come out on top, and then all those Big 12 teams went and tripped over their feet last year. So, no, the ACC is not wearing the bowl game dunce cap right now. Actually, thanks to the Duke Blue Devils and others, you know, there were some W's on the board.

We're gonna get to that. We're gonna get, we have a couple of Duke things here. So, we're not gonna do all 14 teams in terms of win total.

We're gonna do the couple of the heavyweights. I'm gonna start with the two heaviest of the heavyweights, and we'll go Florida State. What I was looking at has Florida State over or under 10 wins in the regular season.

What would you take there? It's a push to underplay for me, and you wait to see if the market can give you a nine and a half. The way that I look at it for Florida State, and those who've heard me on the Cover Three Podcast understand that when we go through this exercise, I do a win-loss toss-up analysis where I'm going through and, you know, your wins count, your losses count, then of your toss-ups, normally I need to see about half to be able to get us to this number. So, Florida State wins Southern Miss, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Duke, Wake, Pitt, Miami, North Alabama. Wake is one I could throw to toss up just because of what the Demon Deacons were able to do to them last year in a win, but other than that, I'm not so sure. But, I think that LSU as a toss-up is being generous to Florida State. I think that LSU is very, very good, and if I had to pick that game right now, I would pick the Tigers to win it, and then I think that Clemson in Death Valley is a certified L. So, with one loss, one toss-up, and another fringe toss-up, if you're going to give me 10, no chance. I'm seeing 11 and 1, so that's why I say push to under.

If you get a nine and a half, I don't hate an over. You said Florida State would beat Duke. Florida State would lose to Clemson. I think it's going to be very interesting. I think it's going to come down to tiebreakers.

I'll just leave that joke there. Clemson, I agree with you, by the way, push to under for Florida State. Clemson, nine and a half wins. Come on, lock it in like right now. Bite it up.

I've already seen it move to 10 in some markets. This is going to be a classic overreaction to the horrible just win the ACC again season. Oh, man, they've fallen off the face of the earth. It's so funny. I mean, we have been sitting down and we've been doing these drafts on the Cover Three podcast, the quarterback draft, the wide receiver tight end draft, pass catchers, you know, the Oklahoma drill draft.

I saw that. Clemson players keep popping up. Florida State players aren't. Clemson's high end talent is better than anybody in the ACC. You look at Bud Elliott's blue chip ratio. What percentage of your last four recruiting classes are four stars or five stars? Clemson's right there behind Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State.

They're above 70 percent. I mean, it is it is still such a talented roster. Any steps forward with Garrett Riley as offensive coordinator and Cade Klubnick taken over as the quarterback are going to lead to more consistency on the offensive end. They sneakily weren't horrible on that end last year, but nine and a half is disrespectful. Clemson.

I think they'll get to 10, but I may look, you know, way more than I do about this. I am not bullish on their offense at all. I have not seen a playmaker at wide receiver now for what, three seasons. The offensive line to me has been no better than OK over this period of time. I would love to to know that Clemson can line it up and run it on you because I think it would make everything else so much easier. But I think even go back to the Travis Etienne days. And they were even at that point getting most of their explosion plays from Etienne out of the backfield in terms of throwing it.

I think that's what will please going to do. Like my pushback is that Clemson's never been elite in the line of scrimmage. A few very good players.

And they've had guys that are like the right sizes and weights. But it is not, you know, we are not seeing loads and loads of offensive linemen go from Clemson onto the NFL. Clemson has a lot of players from the NFL. Clemson has a lot of top players that are in the NFL right now. Clemson also nonconference scheduled FAU, Charleston, Southern Notre Dame, but in Death Valley and South Carolina. And I would expect the revenge angle to that South Carolina game could be interesting after that winning streak was snapped last year by Shane Beamer. I just I see this as an eleven and one team at worst.

I think the Tigers are going to be back in the college football playoffs. Eleven and one at worst. I know one loss coming. UNC eight and a half wins.

Yeah, that's a tough one. So here's the way that I've got it with my win-loss toss-up analysis. I've got wins at Pitt, Syracuse, Miami, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Campbell. I've got my losses at Clemson at NC State. I've got my toss-ups South Carolina, Minnesota, and Duke.

Here's why that's interesting. Because the challenge for this North Carolina football team is going to be maintaining its focus, having some injury luck, because the games that are going to decide it are going to be those ones at the very end. Finishing the year at Clemson at NC State is kind of brutal. And Duke is right before then. Duke is right before that. I think November is really, really tough for the Tar Heels. I mentioned South Carolina, Minnesota, those non-conference games at the beginning of the year. South Carolina and Charlotte, Minnesota at home.

Minnesota is a good football team. I don't think that they've got the firepower to be able to keep up with North Carolina. But at eight and a half, I may underplay. I think they've got big eight and four energy. It's a tricky schedule.

I'm with you. I also have under eight and a half. All right, NC State six and a half.

I'll tell you right now, I have over six and a half. Because what are the surefire losses? Notre Dame and Clemson, right? Those are the only ones. And this is like, what's really nice for NC State is you play all the Virginians, even the military institute. Okay. The key to stacking wins in the Atlantic Coast Conference. I know what you did.

They're a key. I like it. No, but the key is to play Virginia, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. Like that's if you want and maybe Boston College, throw it in there too.

If you want an extra if you want an extra cherry. But as many games as you can play against those four teams, that is the way that you stack wins in this conference this year. So the fact that you've got Virginia, Virginia Tech, VMI, UConn, Marshall. Again, I could throw North Carolina in the toss up category, but boy, there's a lot of toss ups. I think Louisville is a toss up. I think Duke is a toss up. I think Miami is a toss up. I think Wake Forest is a toss up. And it's just really going to come down to the massive exodus of veterans that this team and this program saw after last season. Now, what does that next group look like?

I am inclined to take the over here because of a trust in the history of program development that we have seen over the last couple of years. But you said six and a half, right? Yeah.

Yeah. Six and a halfs and over. That to me, seven and five is what they are, right?

I mean, I'm not trying to be flipping about it, but this has a seven and five season or maybe even eight and four season written all over it. Duke, six and a half. Pardon me while I double down. With another over?

Hell yeah. They're winning the opener. Okay. So they're not winning the opener. That is one of the certified losses.

All right. So Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville are the ones that I've got as losses. So now we're down to eight. Your toss ups are NC State, Wake Forest, and UNC. Love that the Blue Devils are playing all the in state teams. Can you go and get the wins? The wins that they will be easily able to get in my analysis is Lafayette, Northwestern, UConn, UVA, and Pitt. If I can get to five without even asking for a toss up win, then I too am on the over. I'm on the over. If they had set this at eight and a half, I'd be on the over.

Wake Forest, five and a half. I think that's disrespectful. I 100% agree.

Dave Klassen has that in his office right now. So Duke and Wake Forest cannot be properly pinned down. Wake Forest even more so, just because they've been so successful recently.

We now have year after year of example. The computers, the power ratings, the projections, they can't nail this team down. No, I assemble a lot of different power ratings and a lot of different models from a lot of different places. I did not take a math class in college.

It is not possible for me to have my own original formula to come up with this. So I use lots of different pieces of data and all of them are low on Wake Forest. And they were low on Wake Forest last year. And they were low on Wake Forest the year before when they played for the dad gum ACC championship. They were still low on Wake Forest all the way through.

So with win totals, Wake Forest is one of those teams that my colleague Bud Elliott, who does have his own formulas and runs his own numbers, he says, I have to manually put in upgrades for the team and deacons based on Dave Klassen's program and the way that it continues to beat the computers. So yeah, that's a bold team. It is a team that is, Jamal Banks is going to be a dude at wide receiver. Donovan Green's finally healthy again at wide receiver. I understand we just lost A.T. Perry. Mitch Griffiths is a guy that the staff has been excited about for like, I don't know. He showed up at Wake Forest nine years ago, ready to come be the next player after Sam Hartman. Hartman just stuck around forever. So I'm, I think that the demon deacons ultimately are always going to be having their ceiling capped by the defensive side of the football, but they'll score enough points to make the postseason. Five and a half.

That's a joke. Chip Patterson is here. All right, real quick. NC state on the road at UConn minus 16 and a half. Oh, UConn plus the points. I like UConn and the points too. I'd say don't win the game, but I think UConn plus the points. Listen, I'm telling you, Louisville over seven and a half.

That's the lock. Remember, I listed the teams that you want to play. Let me, let me just, let me just read to you the eight conference teams that they play. Georgia Tech, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Duke, then Pitt, Miami, NC State.

But the wins are just right there for Jeff Brom in year one. You've got 25 transfers coming in, your old quarterback from Purdue, one of the top wide receivers, and they don't even hit the road until September 29th. They're going to be 4-0 when they show up in Raleigh to play NC State after beating Georgia Tech, Murray State, Indiana, and Boston College. Like that's, that is going to be the team that is going to be, and they avoid Clemson, they avoid Florida State. That is going to be the team that might be, like there are teams that are better than their record. They are going to finish high in the standings, but might not be the fourth best team in the ACC, but they might have the fourth best record.

All right, give me, give me quick picks on these. Duke plus 12 at home against Clemson. Clemson. Wrong.

Peter Woods. I don't know how many, listen, I don't know how many of y'all have checked up on, on this dude, but they've got a freshman defensive lineman who's going to be an instant impact monster. It's going to be insane.

I'm sure they always do. I'm sure they, I'm sure they will, but Duke's still winning, winning that game. Carolina minus one and a half against South Carolina. Boy, I don't trust, I don't trust.

I would love to have a North Carolina plus two and a half, you know, not minus one, but minus one and a half. I tell you what, we take the tar heels because fundamentally as a man of principle, I am not going to side with Spencer Rattler over Drake May. That is preposterous. That is preposterous.

To coin Stephen A. Smith. All right. Yeah. Gosh. Are you surprised?

I'll just throw this at you. USA today listed the revenue, the athletic department revenues, Ohio state, by the way, topped the list $252 million. No ACC team came close to 200 million in revenue. Are you surprised that the number one revenue athletic department was Virginia?

A little bit. I was surprised Florida state was ahead of North Carolina. I was surprised that Arizona was ahead of North Carolina. UNC was pretty far down the list. They were outside of the top 30. South Carolina was higher than North Carolina. Virginia being, um, Virginia being up there was interesting.

I don't, I have to, how does that happen? I do have my all off the cuff theory is that, um, they are doing so well in so many different sports that some combination of just straight up ticket sales or stadium sponsorships, um, that the, the support for all of the sports might all come together to lead to a little bit of a boost right there. They'll be like selling out baseball, selling out the dish.

What are they doing? Yeah. Like the in stadium signage for the baseball team that is, um, that is obviously doing very, very well right now.

The lacrosse team, same thing like that. I would just assume that that has to be, that has to be a factor into why your revenues are there. But I'm look, I mentioned, I'm not great at math and I'm certainly not good at cooking books, like an athletic department.

So I have no idea how revenues are really being calculated right now. All right. Final thing for chip Patterson cover three podcasts, CBS sports.

Give me three picks at LA country club for the U S open, uh, Brooks, Kepka, Jordan, Spieth. And, um, let's go with DJ is a deep sleeper. If that's a sleeper, I'm, uh, I'm with you. Uh, I don't know. I have a hard time saying DJ is a sleeper, but I know he hasn't necessarily challenged all lately.

Right. There's, there's just, it feels as though there's just so much oxygen around, um, your Ram Scheffler Brooks and your, uh, Morikawa can't lay max Homa. You know, maybe you throw a little Xander Shoffley in there from San Diego, like have some magic, uh, right there. But I, I have hit the point, especially at a, um, championship that, you know, LA hasn't had it in 70 some odd years.

You know, we haven't played it at this country club, but USGA has a type like dating, you know, they set it up. And so I tend to lean towards, uh, those who've had success at us opens no matter where they are like wind might not be there and we could see a birdie fest, but over the course of the last eight years, more often than not, it's been about the same type of championship and it's had the same kind of names in and around the leaderboard. And, uh, that's why I'm going with Brooks Koepka. I mean, I've got Koepka too.

And, uh, in a runner up as well in the last six, seven years, Koepka cam Smith, Tony Fino, my three picks. Ooh. Based on.

Yeah. I don't think you have to be all that straight off the tee. I don't, I think this is going to play a little bit more like, uh, there's, there's some run-up possibilities. I think it's going to play, you can play the ball along the ground here a little bit more. Um, and I think he's just a demonish putter.

Um, so my speed visions have to do with working it out of the thick stuff around the green to be able to set yourself up and scramble a little bit, always important at any United States open. No question. I will talk to you next Wednesday, my friend. I appreciate your time. Sounds good. Y'all be well chip Patterson, the one and only at chip underscore Patterson.