Sando: Trevor Lawrence Needs To Have A Big Season

Mike, how are you, man?

I'm doing well. It's great to be here. Thanks for having me. Thank you so much.

You're always with the amazing work. We had a chance to discuss some of it yesterday where you spoke to and basically polled fifty coaches and executives about some of the best quarterbacks in the game. This is the eleventh year doing it. And I guess the first question for you, Mike, earlier today we learned that Russell Wilson is officially the starter for the Steelers. He fell a bunch of spots this year after the disaster in Denver last year to twenty-two. What are your thoughts on Russell Wilson? Is he going to be the quarterback for this year? Do you think he can make it through and get a contract extension?

I would be very surprised if he played well enough to get an extension at this stage of his career. I think there's a chance he could start the whole year, but I think they're also going to look at playing Justin Fields in packages and then if there's openings to play him, I wouldn't be surprised if they want to take a look at him and have a developmental plan for Fields because Fields potentially has some upside in the future. Whereas I think we've seen the best of Russell Wilson and we're no longer really seeing the dynamic plays he used to make when he was super athletic and could run away from trouble and make a huge play downfield. It would be very unlikely that Russell Wilson would suddenly be able to do that again as he gets older and so that's why I think you know there's a there's always a high floor in Pittsburgh, like Mike Tomlin is going to win nine games every year, almost no matter what, but I don't know how high the ceiling is with Russell Wilson, right? If you were to make the playoffs would you feel like you're going to go win a playoff game or two? With him, it seems like it could be difficult.

Mike Sandel is here with us from the athletic on the JR Sport Reef show. I mean, having said that, you believe as we get further and further along in the season that Fields, the the scales might sit in his favor. Yeah, I could. I would imagine there could be an opening along the way if Russell Wilson were banged up or had a few tough weeks, the offense wasn't humming, that they could at least consider it. I do think there's a chance we could get Fields to start a game and I would think if they like how Fields is progressing a little bit in the background wouldn't you want to look at him at some point? It could be difficult if your team's in the middle of the mix, but what are the odds the offense just hums every week with Wilson at this stage, right?

There's going to be some hiccups. Absolutely, and the fans in Pittsburgh, they will certainly be calling for it, that first bad game. Someone who doesn't have to worry about that, at least for the, through this season, is Brock Purdy. When you take a look at the quarterback tiers on the list, Brock Purdy, he climbed thirteen spots to number twelve.

And assuming Trent Williams comes back, I think we all know he'll likely be back at some point, sooner than later probably, may take a game or two. Do you think Brock Purdy is going to be the the next big payday quarterback, maybe next year, maybe sixty-per, is that accurate if he has another great season? If he had another season like this last one, I mean that's what they'd have to be thinking of, because we saw two a ton of a low, I just get fifty-three million, Trevor Lawrence got fifty-five, what have those guys done?

Right? I mean they're they're below Brock Purdy already in this, so I think that would be fascinating because most of these teams, it feels like these teams are just paying the guys no matter what, no matter if they're great or good, just giving the money. The forty-niners are interesting organization, I think they're stronger than most organizations, would they have the wherewithal to push back a little bit? They're doing that obviously now with Brett and I, you could maybe Trent Williams, would they hold the line a little more and try to say, wait a minute, you're not Mahomes, I'm sorry, we're not playing you on that level. It could get interesting at that point, but he's definitely going to be in line for a payday if he produces anywhere near heated this last year. Well Mike, I think if there is a guy who might get a payday before him, it's Dak Prescott. Do you think this is going to go down to the wire of the start of the season? There's no way the Cowboys are going to let this bleed out through the season, right?

Or is there? Well you wouldn't think so, but Dak Prescott's really in control, he's worked hard to be in a great position. He really has gotten a great situation where they can't franchise tag him and they can't trade him.

So he's in control, much more than other players are in this situation. Why should he settle for anything? Because we've already seen when Kirk Cousins hit the market, he got a very high, he got a fully guaranteed three-year deal. So it depends really what Dak wants. If Dak wants to be there and doesn't want to have this distraction and would just like to take the best deal he can get, he can do that and he might leverage a good deal because Jerry Jones has shown he'll pay guys he paid Romo, he's paid Dak before he's just paid C2M, he'll probably pay ultimately. But if Dak wants to really push this thing out and maybe he's undecided of where he wants to play or maybe he wants to see what the coaching situation is going to be, right? They haven't committed to Mike McCarthy, those types of things, he's in great shape to play this thing out. That's power players rarely get. And he's already made tons of money, right? It's not like he has to take something.

I think it's interesting. Mike Sandow, who's joining us, covers all things NFL for the athletic. I'm expecting that big splash, that big news, breaking news to come right before the season starts for Dak Prescott. I remember last year, Lamar Jackson, the day of the NFL draft, he got his deal done. When you take a look at the rankings, Lamar Jackson wasn't in that first tier, despite now being a multiple-time MVP. The players took a look at Lamar and they said that he was the number one quarterback. They put him ahead in Mahomes.

What are your thoughts on kind of how players evaluate Lamar versus coaches and execs? Yeah, well, Lamar's the fourth quarterback overall in this thing. He's the top five guy and he's right on the brink of tier one. The only thing that there's a big difference between MVP and this. MVP, there's no criteria.

It's just whatever you think it is, the players are naming it for whatever they want, but there's no set criteria. I mean, last year Patrick Mahomes was seventh in MVP voting. No one when I went to talk to anyone about Mahomes, no one was like God, I like him, but he was only seventh in MVP voting.

God, it causes me some pause, you know? No one's doing that. So the only thing for Lamar to do, which, look, almost half the voters, 23 of the 50, I talked to, put him in tier one anyway, but there are some question marks in the eyes of folks when he has to pass the ball. Not that he's not a good passer, because he had a good passing game last year, but their success is so much predicated on his running and their running that when that goes away, which it inevitably does, in playoff games, when you're trailing, those sorts of things, they haven't had the type of pass offense that some of the guys in tier one have.

So it's hurt them. They scored 10 points against Kansas City in the playoffs, that type of a thing. Even so, he's in the top five, he's fourth, and almost half the voters put him in tier one anyway. So that's the difference, really, between an MVP and a tier system. You have to have criteria in the tiers, and that tier one criteria is carries his team each week, check.

Team wins because of him, check. Expertly handles peer pass situations. I mean, that might be the only real little hole there for him and some of those other guys that are in tier two. I do look at the top of tier two, though, with Lamar, Herbert, Stafford, and Rodgers. These guys are kind of at least one and a half.

If you put them in tier one, no one's going to bat an eye. Well, let me ask you this, Mike. You started the name of a few other QBs. Was there anything else that stood out to you when you got the the ballots returned from this survey?

Anything else that caught your attention? Big time. Look at the third tier. So really, I feel like the top two tiers, if you have those guys, you feel like you can go to the Super Bowl.

And a lot of them have. Brock Burdie, he's gone to the Super Bowl. Goff's gone to the Super Bowl. Obviously, Rodgers, Stafford, those types of guys.

But the top of tier three, tier three is where we're talking about more of a win with quarterback, not win because of quarterback. And the top four guys there, Tua, Tonovaloa, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, have all gotten major paydays. Huge paydays. Fifty-some million a year or a fully guaranteed deal.

Kyler got a big deal when he did his. But the league here is saying basically, we got questions. We don't have you in even the top two tiers of the league.

So what does that mean? It means it's a big year for these guys. Tua's probably the exception because he's coming off of a good year. But the league is saying he's not the huge difference maker. Some of those other guys are above.

I think that's interesting that those guys get paid anyway. Mike Sando is joining us from The Athletic. Specifically taking a look at Trevor Lawrence who's at sixteen right behind Tua at fifteen.

I've heard about Trevor Lawrence since he was out here in Cartersville, Georgia. Obviously the nation learned more about him at Clemson. He was expected to elevate himself into that next, that the top tier of a quarterback.

And here he is condamiddling. Do you think that's due to injury? Is this a breakout year for him maybe with the Jags?

It could be. You know, I think he was trending positively going into last year. And you're right, they were eight and three and then he had multiple injuries I think that affected his play.

It affected how they called the offense. His athleticism really wasn't a factor later in the year and it got harder for him. That being said, I don't think in his in his time so far, which you have to put a big asterisk with Urban Myer here, I agree to put that up to the side. The players are not you know the players can't draft themselves into Kyle Shanahan's offense or Sean McVay's offense. I think if Trevor Lawrence had gone to one of those teams, I bet you he'd be in tier two.

I really do. I don't think he's got that many holes in his game. But he hasn't risen above enough.

Probably he hasn't shown the consistency. And so what I sense in talking to people in the league is somebody who came in with yeah, you definitely think this guy could be a tier one guy. I feel like the expectations for his feeling have come down a little and maybe people feel like yeah, he can be a tier two guy.

But really, he even gets to the top of tier two. And we'll see. It's early in his career. You know, he had one kind of down here last year and he was hurt. So he's got plenty of time. I don't know if the coaches and everybody else there has plenty of time, but he's going to be there if they just sign them. And he's got the talent to be better than us.

Mike Sando is joining us here from the athletic on the JR Sport Pre-Show, the Infinity Sports Network. From one number one overall pick to another. Trevor Lawrence had those big expectations, still has time. People are taking a look at Caleb Williams. I mean, even before he got drafted, people were like, hey, he has a little bit of my homes in him and I start to cringe a little bit.

He looks good in his own way. What's your valuation of what you've seen from Caleb so far up in Chicago? I do think it's promising. You know, the guys that I've talked to, 50 people here, but there are certain guys that I really, you know, respect what they think. And one of them was my co-host on the Football Gym Podcast, Randy Mueller. He works for the Saints now, but Randy is a great evaluator, great evaluator of quarterbacks. And he's very high on Caleb, too, so I think he's going to be good. The only little concern is that he's a two-edged sword and he does hold the ball a long time and he makes magic happen. He really can. He can run around and make just spectacular, accurate throws.

But there's a balance to that, too. And that's a little bit where the Mahomes comp may come in. I think Patrick Mahomes does a beautiful job of that and knows sort of when to give up on it. He maybe stays ahead of guys chasing him. He probably wouldn't beat me to have the fastest 40 time, but it's just enough.

Just enough to not get caught, right? So he has instincts and feel for the game. He knows how to play. I feel like Caleb Williams has some of that, too. You just get a sense watching him. He's in control of what's out there. He knows what's going on and that's a huge part of it. That was one of the issues with Justin Fields. All the talent in the world. But even coming out of college, a concern was he just didn't seem to have a natural feel for the game.

Some guys do. I think Caleb Williams seems to have that, so it gives him a real leg up. This is going to be an interesting mix, especially as we have moved on to a new era of quarterbacks with Mahomes at the top. Is there a QB going into this season that you don't think is garnering enough attention, whether it's good or bad, or this could be a career altering year?

Anybody that you think about is in that space? I think one of the most interesting quarterbacks here is Anthony Richardson because there's big questions about whether he can stay healthy. There's no question about his dynamic player in terms of his athleticism and the ability to run and the ability to throw the ball. I like the fact, I think Shane Steichen is a good kind of scheming coach for him. We saw he did a really nice job with Jalen Hurts. They weren't the same until he and Steichen left. So there's a real boom possibility there with Anthony Richardson.

Definitely questions. I don't know if he can stay fully healthy for a year because he hasn't done it yet. The consistency of the passing, all that.

I do think that he's somebody who has the potential to move way up if things come together for him just based on his talent. Well Mike, we know if you don't have a quarterback, then you don't have nothing. I do want to ask you about a recent change made by the Pro Football Hall of Fame by eliminating the five-year gap down to one for coaches.

Did they do that? Because the coach is a little bit older, what was the thought process in them changing that up? I don't think that there's a big of a... I mean Joe Gibbs got in the Hall of Fame and came back and coached.

I didn't think anybody thought that was a weird thing. Maybe some of these guys are coaching older and I think they like it when these guys can get in and be willing to probably enjoy it. I don't know that there was just a reason to have a five-year waiting period on a coach. But you would certainly think it could time up with Belichick and Pete Carroll and some of these guys who are older and may even try to coach another year or two. This could start the clock faster on them so we could see if Belichick doesn't come back, he could get in in the class of 2026.

Which he would breeze right in, obviously. Mike, do you think he'll be back next year? He's certainly taking a lot of media jobs to keep him busy. Is he going to be back on the field next year?

I mean, I don't know. He's a media star now. He can't turn on anything without finding Bill Belichick. He's going to do a podcast now with Peter King and then he's going to do a Peyton Manning 30-for-30, I think.

Or no, he's doing a Peyton Manning weekly match-up show. All kinds of stuff for him. I'm a little skeptical that he'll get back in. It only takes one team, but it seems like he would want a lot of power. And then the question I would have if I were hiring him is, who's your staff?

Because I think that staff really wasn't as good by the end of his time coaching there. So he's got to have his agent or whoever try to find the right spot. And if a place like the Giants opened, I could see it. I could see him move, but it's got to be the right place. The Giants would be one of the most full circle things ever. Bill Belichick has a lot of jobs. Let's see if he gets that one job again next year.

Mike Sandel, you do a great job. Where can people follow you and your work with The Athletic? Definitely at The Athletic. You can download the app or you can find us at theathletic.com. It will re-route you to the New York Times.

We're owned by the New York Times. And then you can find me on I guess it's X now at Sando NFL. Hey Mike, I appreciate the time and the expertise. You enjoy the holiday. Appreciate it. Thank you. Always enjoy our conversations.