Absurd Truth: Full Election Day Preview

Dana Lashes of Sir Truth Podcast sponsored by Kel-Tec. It's his life mission to make bad decisions. It's time for Florida Man. This guy, a Florida man, a Florida man threatened a state trooper with a gun and a bomb. Police had to send out traffic alerts for residents to stay away from the area. A 39-year-old man threatened a state trooper at a local Wawa saying, quote, he better back up because I got a gun and a bomb.

Did he have either though? The Port St. Lucie police arrived. The guy tried to drive to the Wawa off of Tradition Parkway. He crashed into two officers and troopers attempted to block him and they did immobilize him. And they did take him into custody. He did not have a bomb. He lied. A gun and a bomb like everything I can think of just to stop getting arrested. Stop.

Spring Hill man. He smacked into a telephone pole while running away from a car filled with drugs. So they pulled him over. His name is Scott Shwerian and Heidi Reynolds were pulled over by deputies and they saw a rolled cigar containing most pot. Then they found a pill box literally with the word Xanax written on it that had I don't even know what this pill is. I don't know how to alpha alfrazolam. Oh, Black Betty alfrazolam.

I don't even know what it is. Two separate baggies with fentanyl residue inside. So they were trying to detain them. And there was a scuffle.

And then they found syringes filled with meth and all kinds of stuff. And the guy tried to run away. Yeah, he did not literally run into with a with a car. He ran into it with his person with his legs. He ran right into a telephone pole and it knocked him down. And they were able to detain him.

Makes it funnier, doesn't it? Because it wasn't a car. He ran right into a telephone pole.

How do you run like physically into a telephone pole? Like was he? I don't know. He got charged with more things than I'm going to read.

And the bond is like a $30,000. Yeah. There you go. Let's see here. Oh, man, let's see. That one's that one's heavy. Let's do. Let's talk about the woman who stole $7,000 in returns from the Dollar General that she used to work at.

How do you $7,000 isn't that like a whole Dollar General store is $7,000. So that's what this she looks like one to Lee County Sheriff's Office. Her name is Dominique McCurdy. Kane, how do you spell Dominique? In K in Q, you a Oh, Dom unique McCurdy. She used fake refunds and applied them to her debit cards over the course of two I am going to make fun of that spelling of that name. Absolutely I am.

I mean, good night. She said she needed the money for an upcoming move and was financed in the future costs associated with it. And so they said that she would scan. They have a $50 toy at the Dollar General.

It's called Squeaky Dino multiple times to make the returns. She was charged with larceny and defrauding to obtain property valued at less than $20,000. That's crazy. Yeah, her name. I mean, I wouldn't guess that she was gonna be a criminal within spelling her name, but you know, good heavens.

This let's see. A Florida man threatens to kill everybody, like literally everyone, but then he decided to break them up into, you know, more organized demographics. Nathaniel James Holmes 51. He threatened to kill the children of one victim, and all of their Jewish friends and all of their African American friends online.

Good night. Jacksonville, Florida, this 51 year old Nathaniel Holmes, he got charged with four counts of transmitting interstate threats to injure people. And he could face 20 years in prison. So apparently he got I guess he got into a fight with somebody online and he, you know, very, or in an organized fashion threatened to everybody. So he was this was like that Clint Eastwood, like I'm gonna, you know, if anybody starts beating up any more of these whores, I'm gonna come after you.

And what is it kill your family and your dog too. So he he was like, I'm gonna go after your children and all your Jewish friends and also your African American friends. So you say something that's like racist and anti Semitic, but then you use African American, you're very careful about your language. Like people are confusing. This dude is confusing to me. Anyway, he could go to jail for a long time because you can't make death threats.

digitally. And Florida has a special different applications of law over it. So our partners at Hillsdale College, this is one of the reasons why Hillsdale exists, by the way, they understand that education is absolutely a requirement. In order to keep a free republic, you have to be able to understand what your freedoms are, and what your rights are, and what the process is in protecting them. And this is why they've they've had this initiative, they were founded in 1844, all about the pursuit of truth and defense of liberty. But they also have a great initiative where they've been distributing pocket sized constitutions to a million Americans who maybe don't have one. If you have one already, you can request one for somebody you know in your life who may not have one. And it is a part it's this is part of their mission to spread awareness about our nation's core values. And you can get yours at dana4forhillsdale.com get your free pocket constitution there. And as I said, it's a great opportunity to share these crucial documents with the next generation. And you can get your free copy and the supplies are limited and they're not going to share your information. You just give them your your mailing address and they send it to you.

There's no strings. Visit dana4forhillsdale.com fill out that form and they're going to mail you your free pocket constitution with free shipping. As I said, it won't last long.

Grab yours today. Dana4forhillsdale.com. First and foremost, so election day, and early voting has been good for Republicans, the states and the battleground states. And we're going to talk a lot about these battleground states, which include the blue wall. And you guys know these battleground states, we've talked about it quite a bit. Pennsylvania is chief amongst them. I mean, you've got Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona. And it has been all about turnout, getting these Republican voters out, because Republican turnout has always been the issue.

Now I want to I want to pause here for a moment because I touched on this yesterday. And I will caution people about comparing the turnout, especially when you look at states like Pennsylvania, some of these battlegrounds, I will caution you in comparing turnout today to turn out of 2020. And there is a major reason why, actually two major reasons. First and foremost, it was COVID. Secondly, Republicans were hell bent against early voting in 2020, to the point that it actually depressed the overall vote on election day.

I spent about two hours deep diving through all my notes at the time. This is a particular sore spot for me because I traveled in 2020 to a few of these battleground states. And it was insane.

And the good sweet people, many of them listen to the show, and I love them. But they were hell bent against early voting. They were not going to go do it. And I was trying to caution people look in the areas where you can do it.

If Democrats are going to allow you the chance to run to score, then go by all means do it. I understand the principle. Look, I like voting on election day, my mother will fight you to the death to vote on election day only. There are certain people like this.

I have dear friends of mine who are my age, and some of them a couple years younger. Who are like, no, we are only voting on election day. I get it, believe me.

But I want it. But in 2020, it was a different scenario. Republicans were just dominated by Democrats with early voting. And they didn't, especially in 2020, with COVID, and the concern over mail in ballots and everything else there was, and Trump spoke against it. So it's, it's very, you don't want to measure early voting now to 2020. Because I feel like we're restoring behavioral norms. And as a result of restoring behavioral norms, it's difficult for me to say that that's a major gain when we're going back to how it was normally right. Now, I will say, if you're comparing them against to Democrats, Republicans have been doing really well holding their own against Democrats in with regard to early voting.

And we're going to dive into that. Now, one of the other things, the state to watch is going to be Pennsylvania. I've heard a lot about early voting, specifically in Pennsylvania.

And I like I said, I think that's, you know, again, not entirely representative of the whole story when you're restoring normal behavior. But looking back, Trump won this state in 2016 by 44,292 votes. Biden won the state by 80,582 votes in 2020.

So there's not a lot of room by these margins. Now, as you know, Pennsylvania, together with Wisconsin and Michigan, they formed that blue wall. That's the wall that that Democrats love to hide behind. And it's protected countless nominees except in 2016 with Hillary Clinton and with two caucus it held in 2020.

Now, the race is neck and neck. Any pollster who tells you what's going to happen is lying to you. If they if they tell you they know they're lying to you.

It is so incredibly close. I don't trust the theories about the shy voter. I don't trust the theories about the hidden voter or any of that because none of that stuff pays off.

So I'm I'm super cautious going into this to the point of a super cynic, not to not to not to be a fatalist, but I want to be realistic, because I don't think that it helps the side to bolster an argument or say that you don't need help when really you do. And maybe that could be the difference between winning or losing. Now in Pennsylvania, a couple of things because I hear people say there's troubling signs that emerge, but there's also some really good things. So I don't want people to focus on like a lot of this early vote. One of the things you can tell with early voting is you know how many registered Democrats, how many registered Republicans, men, women, etc, etc, the ages, but you don't know where those votes are going to because they're not going to be counted.

It's not going to start until today. And then you have the the age of 70. So maybe that could be the difference between winning or losing.

Now, in Pennsylvania, a couple of things because I hear people say there's troubling signs that emerge, but there's also some really good things. So I don't want people to focus on like a lot of this early, but one of the things you can tell with early voting is, you know, how many registered Democrats, how many registered Republicans, men, women, etc, etc, the ages, but you don't know where those votes are going to because they're not going to be counted. It's not going to start until today. So in Pennsylvania, voters over the age of 60, 70, 70, they're going to be able to tell you that, you know, how many people are going to be counted. So the average age of the vote is going to be about 25, 30, 50, 50 or even more. So they're not going to be counted.

So it's not going to start until today. So in Pennsylvania, voters over the age of 60, 70, 50 65 have already cast half of the early ballots. Registered Democrats were 58% of those votes cast by seniors compared to 35% for Republicans.

And that's despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older, more women than men have really voted with women tending to skew Democrat. And I hope that the campaign because we started seeing this trend emerge a couple of weeks ago. And so I hope the campaign and I feel like it did maneuver on the ground to combat that a little bit to realize, oh, here's where we got a leak. Let's fix it. Or this is where we have a leak.

Let's fix it. And I feel like at that point, there was enough movement on the ground where they they targeted those issues. But one of the one of the problems with these trends is that a lot of the trends about voting and these discernible patterns, they don't emerge until the votes start being counted. And a lot of the stuff that you hear about previous elections, these are patterns that were only able to be seen after the votes came in, if that makes sense.

So that I don't this is this is one of those things that underscores the need to completely swamp the vote. And, and again, I think you also have to consider a lot of Republicans still, especially in some of these states, they like to go on the day of, but not all signs indicate trouble. There's a lot of encouraging things to Republicans are leading early voting for the first time ever in North Carolina.

This has never happened before. I think it has to do with North Carolina's absolutely abysmal response to everything that's happened in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. And the GOP has been reversing the party's long held position against early voting. Now here's another thing we're going to talk about a lot of these Senate races, but let me just give you a 30,000 foot view to start the show. Bernie Moreno, I said this yesterday pulled.4 ahead of Sherrod Brown in Ohio, right? McCormick and Casey are tied in Pennsylvania. The better measure of Harris versus Trump, if you want a more accurate representation than what you're getting from these national surveys, is to watch what happens in those races. Watch what happens in these battleground races between these these from state lawmakers that are just tied.

This is significant. Now Trump is also polling incredibly well in Ohio, so that's part of it. But in Pennsylvania, he and Harris are tied. And so McCormick and Casey Casey has been reversing a lot of his positions.

He's been trying to run to the center. He's invoked Trump's name in ads, which we've talked about last week. I think this is a better measure of the health of the Senate. I said to you last night, if you subscribe to my newsletter in chapter and verse, I believe I feel like at least Republicans will take the Senate with 51 seats. That is my estimation. Now that could actually go significantly higher. You could go up to 55 seats because you have a number of these other races, which we're going to talk about here coming up races to watch.

And we're going to dive into the house here coming up. Dixville Notch is the first town. This is in New Hampshire.

They vote at midnight. What do they have like a whole six people? A whole six people. Can I just say, how are you your own town with six people? That's like me saying I'm going to form a micronation here in my backyard, right?

I don't like what? Anyway. So in 2016, I can't remember what it was. Was it 42 Trump? And then it ended up being tied or no, not tied.

I think Biden edged him out. We're like five or something like that in 2020. Bottom line is it was three to three. They literally are tied in Dixville Notch first time to vote three for Harris, three for Trump.

And the funny thing is, is all these people, Democrats and Republicans, it's a tiny six people. They use it as a narrative for the rest of the day. Like at least until what came like 11 or 12 o'clock.

That's the narrative. And then you know, they were pulling their hair out when they saw those come in. I thought that was hysterical last night. I gotta say, I thought it was pretty funny. Our partners for this portion of the program, the Caltech P-15, great company, Florida based company.

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When new home purchases made up roughly 15% of the chair and existing homes were about 85%. So Oh, stop it. You know what, I'm gonna put up my Christmas decorations tomorrow. I'm just gonna do it. I'm gonna I'm gonna pause to come and do the show. If it goes sideways, that's what I'm gonna do.

If not, then I'm gonna be a brat tomorrow. Anyway. No spray on sneakers. This is nasty.

Made in this is Wall Street Journal made in three minutes. And it feels like a sock which is not how sneakers should feel. Our spray on sneakers the future.

No, they're disgusting. It's a Swiss brand and they literally spray them on like a mold and then that's it. Or no, it's supposed to be your foot.

I don't know it looks weird and I don't like it. You spray your shoes on your foot. You spray like a mold.

And I guess I don't even say mold like it's actually mold. I just want like an old fashioned shoe. Stop trying to reinvent the wheel. It's weird. I like it. The weird headline hunt is on for the scum who stole Britain's largest inflatable planetarium. It's large. They're investigating. It's the largest mobile inflatable planetarium.

It's been a regular feature at schools. It looks like a weird it looks like a goth igloo. I'm not gonna lie. Like if Vikings made igloos this would look like and it has some Dracula curtains in there. There.

One showing you got them Dracula curtains in there. Local police issued the alert after the inflatable was stolen. And the couple thinks that they all intended to take the trailer restored and rather than the dome itself. So they're on the lookout.

Okay. A South Carolina hunter fatally shoots a woman that he thought was a deer. Christopher McDonald was apparently illegally hunting at night. He fired off three rounds from a shotgun and struck a couple killing the woman. And he was hunting at night.

It was 815 p.m. I guess the couple were out walking in the woods. I don't know. I just were they quiet. Like do you not know what a deer sounds like?

I just like if you hear people walking and like human noises, it's probably not a deer. He turned himself in and he confessed to illegally hunting. But man, that's wild. What a crazy story.

He's back in court in December. Stick with us. Who'd you vote for today? I voted for Kamala Harris. Why is that?

I have three daughters, four children overall. And women's rights is pretty important to them and my daughters. Sorry, I'm getting a little emotional. I didn't think that I was going to do that. But just their bodies, their choice type of mentality.

You know, I want them to grow up in a world that's welcoming to everybody. So yeah, that's why. Why does he sound like he's going to ball? Oh, my gosh. If I was his wife, I'd feel ashamed.

I think I'd start divorce proceedings. That's horrible. I'm not joking. I'm not joking. I'm not trying to be funny.

That's I find that just. So he's this dude is talking about protecting his daughter's right to abort his grandchildren. Can I just talk about how messed up it is that that's your first thought is about you sexualize the vote?

Well, it needs to be about I want to make sure that women if they end up engaging in recreational sex as if there's any other kind. And when they engage in this, because we all know sidebar that rape and incest accounts for less than 1%. And that's from Planned Parenthood's own statistics, which is made public on the internet by an institute called the Guttmacher Institute. So you know, let's move on.

I just want to make sure that you know, they can, you know, get rid of the baby after they have the sex. And they can see that's my only what you I just find that a perverted view of your vote. Why does everything have to go back to sex and baby killing? It's weird, like that's your risk. You're a grown man and your response is to sexualize the vote in the context of protecting it for your daughters.

Does any Am I overreacting to that? I find that really weird. You guys find it weird. And he's like, I'm sorry, I'm just kidding. I'm just getting emotional. It's like, it's not even your vagina, dude. Like what?

What in the world? You're getting emotional because you're talking about a boarding your girl, your future grandchildren, or you're emotional because you're just realize how sick it sounds to be sexualizing the vote through the perspective of your daughters and abortion. See, we are not the same, y'all.

We are not the same. Welcome back to the program. Dana Lash here with you. Top of the second hour. It's election day. And we've been going through everything and I want to take you through these electoral pathways right now.

If you're watching on this simulcast channel 147 direct TV, or listening on a station around the country, we get the chat over at rumble as well. So what could happen, we were going through the Senate, I'm projecting, you know, the couple of the races to watch. I mean, really, the Republicans only have to flip two seats. And if we take the White House, it only has to be one. But I think it actually could go beyond that.

But the other thing is to two quick things. The Atlas Intel survey looks like it's going to be a long night for Kamala Harris. And it just doesn't look I mean, they're just they're tied, but she is also struggling with Hispanic voters. She's struggling with men.

And she's also struggling with I mean, black men voters. I mean, it's just this is just it's kind of wild. The pathways forward, and I'm pulling up all my notes on this. And I talked a little bit about this in the newsletter that I sent out last night. So you know, that you have to get in the electoral college, you have to get to the magical 270, right?

Magical 270. Where it stands right now. So if I'm just looking, for instance, let me just look at RCP's ratings, RCP has it right now. And this is just not going by votes tabulated. Obviously, it's going by polling in certain states that you know, we're going to be blue in certain states that you know, we're going to be red.

They have it at 211 to 219 in favor of Trump fans with 108 toss ups. So you have Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, a lot of question marks over those. Now, here's some pathways forward. And I was, again, I've been talking about this.

In the newsletter, and we've, you know, we made we've discussed at least a couple of ways maybe before. So the first one is the famed blue wall, right? It's the flame, the famous blue wall.

This is honestly her most likely path. There's a caveat though. Imagine you have a big, big blue wall and the bricks of this wall are Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania. And then you have like a congressional district in Omaha, because Nebraska does a mix of statewide votes in congressional districts. It's I think Maine is also one of the states that does this.

So it's a little weird. So Omaha is like its own thing. And you have these these blue wall states, she doesn't have to, you have blue wall, you have Sunbelt, you have Rustbelt, right? You know, the Sunbelt, the southern states, where it's supposedly sunny, your blue wall is the states that have always been Democrat, except in 2016, when they weren't. Because that's when Trump rushed through it like the Kool Aid man.

And then with Dukakis, and then that's it. It's been Democrat the entire time. If she keeps the blue wall, she doesn't have to worry about any of the Sunbelt states. Remember, I told you before Harris was was substituted, one of the Biden's strategies was to make a play for Georgia, the Sunbelt state, right? Make a play for Georgia. That was going to be a backup in the event that one of the bricks of the blue wall fell, you could replace it with Georgia.

And Harris seems to have kind of abandoned that strategy. It seems that theirs is just blue wall, she spent an inordinate amount of time in Pennsylvania and in Michigan and in Wisconsin. So she could keep the blue wall and not have to win any of the Sunbelt states. If she keeps the blue wall, and this is one of the things to watch. If she keeps the blue wall, she will get to 270.

Now may look at the map on this. So if you have, I mean, even if you just take out everything else, let's just make Michigan lean dem. Let's make Wisconsin lean dem. Let's make Pennsylvania lean dem. Without Minnesota, without North Carolina, without Georgia, Arizona or Nevada, she's at 255 to 219 right there.

Right there. Minnesota, you know, is going to lean dem that takes her to 265. Now you see why Pennsylvania is so important to the Trump camp.

They got to win it. I think Georgia will likely lean Republican. That puts it giving Georgia to them that puts it 235 to 265 electoral vote wise. So without even factoring in Nevada, Arizona, although I think New Hampshire, New Hampshire, I think is going to lean dem even though she's struggling that puts her to 269 to 235.

Even without North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, she's at 269 there at 235. That is the significance of Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes. They had 20. But after the 2020 census, they lost one. So it was 20.

Now it's 19. So if she takes Pennsylvania, I mean, you have to have Trump has to absolutely take. Here's where it gets very interesting. He could take North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and that puts it at 269 to 268. And then of course, you have that Nebraska.

Remember what I told you? The Omaha? Guess who's favored to win there?

Harris. And then that puts her at 270. That's the pathway that they're trying to make happen. That is the pathway. So this is it's called Nebraska district two is what they call it.

So it looks like any two that's the Omaha thing where you get one vote there. She's favored to win that. So she this is her strategy. So that's the first pathway.

And this is her very clearly this is her what they're trying to make happen. So even if you have if she takes Pennsylvania, that doesn't leave Trump with a lot of options. Pennsylvania, they need to take it.

They have to take it. Georgia has 16 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has 19. And then even if he were to take Arizona and Nevada, I mean, I mean, you're going up against the amount of votes that Pennsylvania has. So that makes it that's, that's a possibility.

That is a possibility. Now. Let's say that he wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. So let's look at the map on this.

And I'm actually filling this in myself on my desktop. So he takes Pennsylvania, we're going to start by the way, we're going to start with the baseline, where everything is now, which is 211 to 219, with the states that we know we're going to be and arguably, Democrat and Republican. So you would have if he takes Pennsylvania, you make that lean Republican you make North Carolina and I say lean Republican, light red because it's close. You give him on top of that baseline Pennsylvania, North Carolina, that puts him at 254 to 211.

Right? Let's say let's say that she takes Nevada, she can take Nevada that puts her at 217 still to 254 without even allocating in Arizona and the other blue wall like you can give her the blue wall. We'll go ahead and give her we'll go ahead and give her the blue wall because I think some of those a couple of the states may hold at least that puts her 242 to 254. So and then I think Georgia will go he takes Georgia on top of it.

And that puts him at 270. And you would still have 26 toss ups. Even if she were to take I think she's gonna do this and hit this this is going to be New Hampshire is going to be probably Democrat. Give her New Hampshire that puts her up. Put Minnesota it's 256 still to 270. Toss ups are 12. I mean, it's still even still even with Arizona. She's still not there.

Still not there. So if he were to take Pennsylvania, and then he because I think Georgia is going to go his way in North Carolina, then he's got it. And then he will be at two. He'll be at 270. And she'll be at 268.

Now, remember what I told you about replacing that brick. If you look at the blue wall and you factor in even if she were to lose Pennsylvania, she could replace it with Georgia. If she loses Wisconsin or Michigan, she could replace it with Georgia. She could take North Carolina too. So that's, that's a lot harder because you're talking about 19 electoral votes.

That's a lot harder. She would have to win Georgia, or North Carolina, and she would have to take either she would have to take Arizona or Nevada. You have to make those numbers up. Now, if she loses, if she doesn't take the blue wall at all, let's say she doesn't take Wisconsin or Michigan or whatever, she would have to win all the Sunbelt states, which is not going to happen.

There's a lot of discussion about the red wall. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He did not in 2020. If he takes Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he can lose North Carolina, he can lose Nevada and he can lose Georgia.

He would just need Arizona has 11 electoral votes, he would just need Arizona and he would win. So she has a couple of more pathways, but hers are so hard. The alternative pathways she has, besides the two most obvious are pretty much it's just pretty much inconceivable. I offer them up because it I mean, it is a pathway, but I just don't think that I she's I'm sorry, she's not gonna win all the Sunbelt states.

That's stupid. Especially when she's underperforming in some of these battleground states, what Clinton and Biden have done. Now I will caution you a lot of these exit polls are trash. Don't pay attention to any of them. Because these remember the exit polls were so wrong in 2020. And they were so wrong. Oh my gosh in 2016. Thanks for tuning in to today's edition of Dana Lash's absurd truth podcast. If you haven't already, make sure to hit that subscribe button on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.