Cameron, welcome to The Brian Kilmeade Show.
Thank you. Hey Cameron, what's with this Mesa mayor, a Republican, coming out against Trump? What's behind that? So he, this is not new with John Giles. He has repeatedly endorsed Democrats in the past. This is kind of part of the contingent of a group of Republicans in the state or former Republicans in the state who are now backing Democrats. You'll see oftentimes in their speeches, they'll make reference to the late Senator John McCain, now ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, who used to be a Senator of Arizona. And so they're trying to court disaffected, but you're also seeing a counter campaign on the Republican side with this, with Carrie Lake also launching her own kind of former Democrats and Democrats for Carrie Lake coalition in the Senate race as well.
And you're seeing this with Reuben Gallego too. So right now it's Carrie Lake who was the, who was the rock star last in the 2022 when she's trying to run for governor, still can't believe she lost. She can't believe she lost too. And Lake is currently trailing Gallego, who's got a well-known name as being a Congressman there, by about 3%. Is that a gap that can close?
I think it can. And the best thing in terms of, if you are in the late campaigning, you're looking at this is Trump is pulling ahead of her. And because they are so closely aligned, that could serve as a benefit to her at the top of the ticket could pull her up in that sense.
But also the thing too, to keep in mind is you look issue by issue, what are the top things? It's the border, it's the economy, it's set now. What are, how are these issues going to impact this race here in Arizona? And those are things that could potentially have a positive impact, even if she is down in this race, but it is still very much extremely competitive.
It is. But what's crazy is Harris is trying to pretend that she's tough on the border. Even Senator Kelly. I mean, I was shocked that he has not been more aggressive on the border as somebody with that military background who wasn't deep, like knee deep in democratic politics. But Harris is actually running as if she's strong on the border.
Cut 12. And Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime. As a border state prosecutor, she took on drug cartels and jailed gang members for smuggling weapons and drugs across the border. We know she didn't do that.
Everything she did was symbolic. The people on the border know that know that she does not strong on the border. Are people really open to making her look like tough on the border? Well, here's the, here's the big question people need to ask as voters. The Democrats are pushing right now for a congressional fix to the crisis, even, and then they went and did their touting the executive order on asylum or whatever they want to call it three years later. And so their answer, they're wanting a congressional fix to an executive order related problem. And that is the thing that voters need to be looking at during this. Do they think a congressional fix is the right move?
Do they want kind of an immigration overhaul that they're looking for in this category? But, you know, I've been down to the border a few times, not the Q parts where, you know, it's a legal port of entry. I've been down to some of these areas where it's the gaps of cartel spotters. And it's rough out there. There's big gaping holes. There's material left off to the side from the border wall that was being built during the Trump administration. And you talk with the ranchers down there and their property values have tanked.
There's garbage everywhere and there's significant crop damage. And even talk with Democrat mayors and they're agreeing with us. This is a bipartisan issue, but the solution that's going to be something that voters are going to be needing to be looking at. So how bad has it gotten better since the executive order? The arrests have gone down, but it's still a crisis. And that's the thing is there are still so many aspects of this that are still going on. I always hear about, well, fentanyl is mostly trafficked in by U.S. citizens.
That's true. But the border agents are so overwhelmed dealing with the influx of migrants that they can't take care of the legal drug introductions to the level at which it's been done. This came out a couple of weeks ago that the biggest fentanyl seizure in Border Patrol history happened a couple of weeks ago in Arizona where they seized.
It was just an insane amount of fentanyl. This is a regular common occurrence. And the big question is, are they catching all of that? And the answer is no. Here's what President Trump said last night with Elon Musk.
Cut 23. You know, these this is migrant crime. This is crime that's going to be. And I saw it today in New York where somebody was knifed, where they raped the girlfriend of a man that stood there watching in New York in one of the shelters and started pulling out the knives. And bad things happened today.
But this is happening every day. So, I mean, are you seeing the crime that these cities are seeing? Well, it's pouring into the Phoenix area.
We're about two and a half hours away from the border. And every week you hear about either a fentanyl seizure or crime related problem here in the valley related to illegal immigration here in the state. And it's a widespread issue. It's, you know, nobody it's kind of hard to deny that at this point, especially when you have billboards, we have billboards up for a while.
Let's say one till can kill. And that's the thing that's really hurting people here. It's the drug problem. And, you know, that's impacting everybody, Republican, Democrat, Independent. We're all being impacted by it. So is there a danger during the when McCain was running for reelection, they said there was a real danger when you talk strong on the border that you're turning off the Hispanic population. I feel like that ship has sailed.
But you're there. What do you what do you think? I don't necessarily think that matches reality with it all, especially when you consider that the border communities being impacted, many of them are heavily Hispanic. And then we also need to consider that, you know, it's so interesting when we talk about minority outreach, all of these issues matter to different groups at once. It's not a cut and dry thing. The economy matters to everyone. The border matters to everyone.
If you're waking up and you're seeing something each morning that you don't like to see the guy next door, that's a different background than you are seeing the same thing. And I think we're such a diverse state here in Arizona, one third Democrat, one third independent, one third Republican, where to cut across certain lines could matter on some issues. But I certainly wouldn't be shying away from anything if I was any campaign. Cameron, what about the abortion amendment that's going to be in the ballot this year? What kind of impact will it make? Where does every where the population of Arizona stand on this? Which is still, I understand, majority Republican. Yes, I could see a world right now where, because that amendment will be further down the ballot, that it might have less of an impact on the top of the ticket races, but it's still going to play a major role. This has been something that Democrats have been campaigning heavily on. It does show that this does kind of strike a nerve with some moderate voters, the abortion issue. So it could play a significant role, especially because we had a time frame in Arizona where our abortion laws were unclear at the state level.
They repealed the past law. And so now they're using that fuel, using that funding, using that energy on the Democratic side to organize and use that on this issue, not only for the amendment itself, but also for their candidates. So with all the election mess and the integrity issues that Republicans claim happen in Arizona, what is that like bringing that issue up to candidates and to citizens and to voters today? Is that something that strikes a nerve, a raw nerve with everyone in Arizona? Because in Florida, if you brought up election integrity for years, starting with the 2000 with Gore Bush, they were really embarrassed by it.
Where's Arizona stand? I would say it depends on who you ask on the issue. It's still very much a big issue amongst Republicans, among the moderates and Democrats that I know it's less of a significant issue. But the big thing I hear even from Republicans is this sense of wanting a sense of clarity and wanting a sense of what is the best way to navigate the path forward on election issues? And how is that being communicated to the public? How do they feel that their vote is making sure it's felt secure?
How are they? How are recorder's offices at the local level communicating with the public on the issue? So that's the thing is regardless of whether where you stand on the issue, the common thing that I see is the strong desire for clear messaging from local governments on it to make sure that people feel that their vote is safe and secure. Have you guys done anything like Georgia has to fix the time it takes to count your ballots? There was, I believe, a legislative kind of fix.
I think some people argue that it now takes longer. It has to do with where the ballots are getting tabulated, at least in Maricopa County. But the thing that I really like to emphasize with Maricopa County is it is the second largest voting jurisdiction in the entire country. I believe we're behind LA, second or third largest, and that plays a huge role into why it takes so long. You look at Deep Blue Los Angeles, they take, I remember I used to live in California, they take for really long time accounts by virtue of the amount of people that live there. And so when you have that in a competitive area like Maricopa County, it takes a while because of the amount of people, it's a real nail biter. So the big thing that they're always pushing is, you know, go and vote early because those are going to be the ballots that drop once you see that.
So it probably will this year take a bit of time, but it does have to do with, you know, consider the amount of people that live here too. So Cameron Arcand is our guest now. He's there. He's the only campaign reporter for The Post. Cameron, right now, have you got a sense of how Harris and Trump match up?
So it is a nail biter. I will say that. I think on the issues, I believe that Trump does have a slight edge and he does have an edge in the polling right now. You look at the real clear polling average, about one or 2% of the lead.
But Harris was here last week. And, you know, the fairly large Democrat rally doesn't compare with Trump sizes. But when you're a Democrat, you're used to kind of the, you know, it's a different kind of situation on their side. So there's definitely a sense of momentum on the Democrat side for Harris and Arizona. But once again, you look at the issues, you look at polling, and this is a going to be an incredibly tight, tight race. And it could change over the next few months, depending on how that messaging plays out here on those issues you and I are just talking about.
They said it's 1.5 on the real clear average, but Cook Political Report calls it a toss up. So we'll be talking again. Cameron, thanks so much. Thank you.
