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Rebecca Heinrichs | Russia, Iran, and China: Can Trump’s Strategy Break the New Axis of Evil?

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The Truth Network Radio
February 17, 2026 1:15 pm

Rebecca Heinrichs | Russia, Iran, and China: Can Trump’s Strategy Break the New Axis of Evil?

Brian Kilmeade Show / Brian Kilmeade

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February 17, 2026 1:15 pm

The Iran regime's nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities pose a significant threat to the United States and its allies, with some experts warning that the regime's ideology and actions are intolerable and that American credibility is on the line. Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine continues to unfold, with the Russians using Starlink to their advantage and the United States providing military aid to the Ukrainians. The connection between China and Russia is also a concern, with some experts warning that empowering the Chinese communists would be a mistake. In Venezuela, the Trump administration's efforts to transition the country to a democratic government are seen as a positive step, but some experts caution that the situation remains complex and that a transition government is needed to prevent chaos and civil war.

COVERED TOPICS / TAGS (Click to Search)
Iran Middle East Israel Ukraine Russia China Venezuela
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Of any purchase of $100 or more. That's promo code Brian. Believe me, if there is an attack, That armada that's sitting there isn't to watch and wave goodbye to Israel as it flies into the throat of Iran. All of those ships. with their missiles, with their aircraft, and all the bases that have been receiving aircraft, they're all designed to conduct a combined attack.

That is General Jack Keen on the chances of an attack with all our forces along with Israel, now planned and coordinated. We understand with two aircraft carriers, missile defense on all our bases, the best we can while we have talks with Iran about their nuclear program, their ballistic missile program, as well as the financing of their proxy groups. Before today, we heard Iran say we're only talking about nuclear and we still want to enrich uranium. That's our right.

Now the foreign minister says there's an understanding reached for a framework with the U.S. on their nuclear program. And then we just got clarification from our side that says this: progress was made, but there are still a lot of details to discuss. The Iranians say they will come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals to address some of the open gaps in our positions. They want sanction relief.

Let's bring in Rebecca Heinrich, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.

So it looks like both sides say there's measurable progress. What's your reaction, Rebecca?

Well, first of all, Brian, I mean, we can't have any sanctions relief until the Iranians completely do the things that you just laid out there, the criteria set forward by the Trump administration. If you relieve sanctions first, which is what the Iranians continue to say they want, they will be able to continue to fund this axis of resistance is what they call it. It's terrorist proxies throughout the region, very dangerous to U.S. forces, our allies in the region. It is intolerable to the United States, and of course they can continue to rebuild their ballistic missile program in the meantime as well.

So we need to see the Iranians actually do what they have so far not been willing to do, which is dismantle their missile program, completely go transparent with their nuclear program and stop repressing their people and, of course, stop funding these terrorist proxies.

So I'm still very pessimistic, Brian. I think that these two weeks are meant to delay and to help the Iranians.

So I hope that our side, of course, is less patient than the Iranians are. Here's Marco Rubio yesterday cut thirty. We have to understand that Iran ultimately is governed and its decisions are governed by Shia clerics, radical Shia clerics, okay? These people make policy decisions on the basis of pure theology. That's how they make their decisions.

So it's hard to do a deal with Iran. We've always said it's hard, but we're going to try. That's what the President is trying. I just think that we're in a, you know, I'm fine. You want to try, you want to have talks, you don't just want to come in.

But I think our credibility is on the line. We saw more uprisings over the weekend, arrests of hundreds. We know that they're not only shooting people in cold blood, they're shooting people in their hospital beds. And they're kidnapping their families, torturing them in prison. Put him to secret locations.

I mean, the only thing that's keeping them in power is their ability to be ruthless on a daily basis with as many people as possible. And we said we got their backs, Rebecca. Yeah. Yeah. No, you're exactly right, Brian.

And what Secretary Rubio said there is so important for our American to understand is that you can't have a regime that's so ideologically, theologically Islamist motivated, they're jihadists at heart, the regime. You can't have a regime like that that's so ruthless and so willing to be inhumane to their own people. You cannot have them funding these armed terrorist proxies that put Americans at risk, that close shipping lanes that hurt the American economy. You can't have them with ballistic missile programs that can shoot at the Europeans. They can range some Eastern Europeans.

They can range the Israelis. They can, of course, range American troops there. And of course, you can't have them with a nuclear pro program because they are so motivated by their ideology. And so I agree with you that I do believe that American credibility is on the line. President Trump is so hesitant to say the word red line because he means it when he says it.

And he said the red line. The deadline for him would be if the regime slaughtered their own people and they have, Brian. 30,000 at least Iranians have been killed in the streets trying to have a better way of life. And so I agree with you that American credibility is on the line. On top of that, Rebecca Heinrich's.

For people listening to us and saying, well, these guys, these two just want war. No, we're just posting. If you choose not to use both aircraft carriers, the firepower, the missile defense, the coordination with Israel, you're not choosing no war, you're just postponing it.

Sooner or later, for 47 years, they've been a problem. They've been calling us out and embarrassing us until this president took office. Nobody else has put this regime on its heels except him. And he's calling them out. Yesterday, they went through drills to try to intimidate us.

They sent drones at our aircraft carriers to try to back us off. Nothing's worked. They know that they are no match for us, and as of now, They have no missile defense. And we have Israel in a war footing who has spent the last six months rearming.

So, this is the moment. I hate to tell you, they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt. They had 47 years to convince us that they wanted to live peacefully amongst us. That's exactly right. President Trump, with Bibinet and Yahoo in Israel, has gotten the Iran regime at its weakest point in its history.

President Trump is very loath to use military force unless he knows that we have the extreme upper hand and the risk to us is low. And that is the situation where we have. We have overwhelming force, have them completely surrounded with naval power, air power. And so we do have the great advantage, combined with U.S. leadership under President Trump, to squeeze the regime economically.

And so they are very weak. The longer we wait at this point, Brian, to your point, the longer time the regime is going to have to rearm. You already see the Chinese communists trying to help the Iran regime get its missile program back to where it was before the Israelis significantly degraded it. And so it is now to the point where it is a moment of opportunity for President Trump to completely remake the Middle East. Israel is stronger than it has been.

The Iran regime is weaker. I think it would be a major Miss opportunity if we let this regime stay in power.

So we have Marco Rubio overseas, went to visit Hungary, and he's also obviously made a huge speech in Munich. I thought it was really effective. Love to get your take on that. And now we had him commenting on Russia-Ukraine negotiations, still led by Jared Kushner. and Witkoff, who are doing the same thing, not only with the rebuilding of Gaza, but also overseeing the negotiations with Iran.

I think we could divide up teams. We have enough people. Here's Marco Rubio, cut forty eight. We don't know if the Russians are serious about ending the war. They say they are, and under what terms they were willing to do it, and whether we can find terms that are acceptable to Ukraine upon whi that Russia will always agree to, but we're going to continue to test it.

So You know, we're out with these talks now. The big difference, they say, the Russian economy is faltering and its forces have been sustaining more losses for the first time than they've been able to replace over the last two months. They say the Kremlin also sees its window to reach an advantageous deal narrowing because the Trump administration could become distracted on the midterm elections because they think it could actually get worse for them. They want the whole Donbass region, and I don't blame Zelensky. He's like, no, you can't.

Have it. Right.

So a couple of things that I've been watching this whole war, Brian, is what you want, you want Ukraine to be able to strike blows against the Russians at a faster rate than the Russians are able to reconstitute and rebuild their forces. And you're right, that we've gotten to that point now. This is a moment where Ukraine is just doing so well. The Russians are not able to retake or not able to take territory. And so you want to bolster the Ukrainians at this point, and you can do it a couple different ways.

You've got Europeans that are supplying weapons to Ukraine. They're buying American weapons. And you have a moment of opportunity where the United States can turn the screws on the Russian economy. And that's what you want to do to be able to slow the war machine because Russia's not going to stop unless the costs are put on Russia. You cannot put pain on the Ukrainians.

They're already suffering. They're the ones that are defending their country. And to your point about the Donbass, the Russians have been unable to take it by force. And so it would be criminal. For Ukraine to be forced to give up this area that Russia has not been able to take by force, and Ukraine needs it to be able to stave off the Russians from further advancing.

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So we found out Elon Musk found out the Russians were using Starlink to their advantage to find out the location of Ukrainian forces. And since they've been cut off, what's the effect been in the field?

So, huge kudos to Elon Musk. He's been quiet about what he does with Starlink, but the Russians were able to use Starlink, even though Starlink was there for the Ukrainians. But, of course, Russia is in Ukrainian territory. They were able to use it.

So, Starlink is the bread and butter on the battlefield. And so, it's greatly helpful to Ukraine, especially now as it has the battlefield momentum for us to be able to cut that off for the Russians.

So, great on Elon Musk. The more the United States continues to help train Ukrainians, help provide intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance to Allied forces who are helping Ukraine, the more we can help the Ukrainians, again, compel the Russians to actually negotiate in faith. The Russians have not changed their ultimate objectives. They don't just want the Donbas, Brian. They want all of Ukraine because they want to break the NATO alliance and push the United States out.

And you realize, if you think that's not our problem, the second biggest army in Europe is the Ukrainian army. Army. The biggest is the Russian army.

So, you want to take the most effective pound-for-pound fighting force in Europe and let them be absorbed by your sworn blood enemy, Russia? Please, people should think about it. I think Europe understands it. Do you think they're getting the message that Rubio relayed? That is essentially: you guys got to bolster up your military, defend yourselves, take control of your borders, take control of immigration?

Because We want an ally that's going to be effective and strong. Do you think they got that message this time?

Well, I think so. I thought that Secretary Rubio's speech was statesmanlike. It was amazing. It was timely, in part because he has this ability to give the Europeans tough medicine, but in a way that brings them in with us. We want you on our side.

We need the collective advantages of your military, your economies to be able to hold off the Russians, because we don't just have the Russians to deal with. We have the Chinese, the Russians, the North Koreans and the Iranians. And so we need the collective West to get serious and confident about defending ourselves. And so I think I've now seen that the Germans have been more serious than I've ever seen them in my career, serious about rearming the French, the Brits. And so it's going to still take some time.

They've got very difficult domestic politics just like we do. But I think Secretary Rubio was just a great orator, and I hope that it mobilizes them. I hope so, too. Because here's the thing. If I'm a politician in Europe and I'm leading a country, I can honestly Say, guys, it's not my opinion that we need to take care of our own security.

The America told us. We have to.

So then I now have a built-in excuse that any leader in the UK and France and Germany has to understand that they got to build up their own defense. That helps you domestically. Then people understand it. Why do we have to worry about it? America's got it.

That's why we're in NATO. And now America's saying, you guys got to pick it up because this is your problem and we're willing to help but not do everything. And I think that helps them. The other thing is Europe wants to win over China. And China wants to win over Europe.

That's the big thing. They want to get under our skin.

Well, do you think that China understands, if Russia, if the Europeans have any street smarts, they turn around and say, if you want our business, Stop Russia fighting in Ukraine, because if you stop buying their oil, that war ends tomorrow. Do you think Europe understands they have leverage there? I think they do. And you bring up a good point about the connection between China and Russia. I mean, over the last decade, especially, the Chinese and the Russians are increasingly collaborating.

China wants Russia to succeed in Ukraine. And China would just carve up the Europeans as well. I mean, for the Europeans to say, look, you know, the Americans are giving us tough medicine. Maybe we should diversify and look at China. It's so foolish.

The Chinese communists are, I mean, what a country to empower. You do not want to empower the Chinese communists. They would treat your country terribly. And so I do think that the Europeans increasingly understand that their security is tied to the United States prevailing over the Chinese communists in this long competition. And Secretary Rubio, I think, really brought them along in a way, at least laid it out for them in a way that I think nobody else could have done as effectively and really showed them what President Trump's vision is for American ascendancy and why that's good for them.

Are you happy where Venezuela is at this point? I am. I'm obviously still kind of keeping track of what's going on there. You want Venezuela to eventually transition over to be self-governing, a democratic country. But I am satisfied, I think, with the Trump administration's realization that chaos and civil war is always the worst scenario.

And so we still have a heavy hand on that transition government. We're pulling the Venezuelans out of the orbit of the Chinese, the Russians and the Iranians, that axis of aggressors. And so I think that's a great thing. And obviously, I would like to see us do the same thing. We started off our conversation talking about the Iran regime.

The Iran regime is one of the greatest suppliers of oil to China. Eighty percent of Iran's oil goes to China. And of course, all their weapons supplies goes to Russia.

So these things are connected. And just lastly, just go back to Iran. Is there anything part of the Venezuela plan that we could put into Iran? We don't want to run the country. We don't want people on the ground.

But is there do you think there's anyone we can work with in Iran, perhaps clandestinely, we've identified that would be able to handle a transition?

Well, I don't this my suspicion, Brian, watching this play out over the last few weeks, because I wondered why the United States didn't carry out a military strike even a few weeks ago whenever the protests were really kind of in full force. And I think that what is going on in part while the Trump administration tries these negotiations with the Iranians is they are looking for who would be a credible people, group, person to take power after the Ayatollah is overthrown if we were to take that action. Because President Trump even hinted at that. A reporter asked President Trump, are you looking for a replacement regime? And he basically hinted and said, we're talking to people.

President Trump understands that the worst thing we could do is topple this regime and leave it totally in civil war. There needs to be a government in place.

So my hope is that the United States intelligence community with our State Department is working on that. And the thing is, they've been incredibly competent. If you look what they did with the Houthis, you look how they supported. At Israel, you look at what happened with Venezuela. You see, we take on missions that are well thought out and execute.

I know we're on an incredible run. And things have come our way. I'm just very confident with this group, Rebecca. Thanks so much for your time and insight. Rebecca Heinrichs, thank you.

Always happy to do it. Thanks, Brian.

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