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See terms. These are all Iranian reports that we're dealing with, and their track record with the truth is not what I would call 100%.
So, I think this is what Iran wants to have happen. But Oman has such a brighter future. I have an op-ed on Fox from about three to four weeks ago about how Oman is the second most improved country on the Heritage Index of Economic Freedom this year. They're doing great. They have a 2040 plan, they've got rule of law, they have foreign investment protections.
They have no, no reason to partner with a leper country like Iran, whose economy is about to tank.
So, I think they've been working with us on getting those 9 million barrels a day out of the Gulf that have been quietly coming out, and I think they'll continue to do so. That's the bright path for Oman, not a partnership with Iran. Of course, and I agree with you. And I did not know those things about the freedom on the market, but that's why I don't understand. Number one, they're having talks.
It's okay. But if they were having talks to him, that's Victoria Coast, by the way, former deputy national security advisor to Trump. But so prior to having talks, You know, I mean, I don't think the president is actually clued in if they're actually on our side because he said if they continue this, I'll bomb them. He doesn't usually say that if someone's working for them. Jordan Gasan Hussain Abaca Abba Baker Mansoor.
A fellow at the Jinsa Germander Center, where they focus on the intersection of Arab politics, Islamic movements and regional security. Hussein, welcome your thoughts about what Oman is really doing here. How do you view them?
Well, it's good to be here. Thank you, Brian.
Well, Oman has been always the Gulf states closest to Iran. They've always positioned themselves as neutral party and the backdoor channel. But what's happening now, really, is more than just being a mediator, a neutral mediator with Iran. Oman is basically letting itself be co-opted by the Iranians, by the IRGC, in order to establish an exclusive Iran Oman network that cuts the United States out, cuts the Saudis out, cuts the UE out, even the Qataris out, and legitimizes Iranian control over the strait. And of course, they're using euphemisms of revenue sharing, it's basically toll collection.
So this is what the Omanis are doing. And this is why I think this is why the president is upset at them, because this is no longer mediation with the Iranians anymore. This is sitting exclusively with the Iranians. to help them get full control of this trade.
So, yeah, I mean, it says Iran and Oman did not mention fees during Tuesday's announcement, but both nations have publicly backed collecting money from ships. On Wednesday. Really? They know we're not going to accept that. I mean, come on.
This is the bewildering fact about Oman. Oman knows that the United States, our main demand of Iran right now, is to completely cease their attempt to control the strait and let it back open for international shipping. And of course, this is obviously also our demand from Oman.
So there are strategic dangers here. The United States doesn't want this agreement to happen at all, and they believe that the Omanis understand this fully.
So we'll see how they will behave. But the United States also can have exercise leverage of them in various ways. In what way can we put p uh pressure on them?
Well, diplomatic leverage, I think, with the Omanis is very important. They also are an important ally of the United States and depend a lot of things, threat of trade and commercial consequences for their behavior. But basically, the Omanis must understand that whatever they are going to gain by having this agreement with the Iranians is going to be deeply offset by their losses due to American pressure.
So, Hussein, when you see those lines, I assume you've seen those lines for Iranians to get gas. I mean, they've gone for miles. I mean, they so is that part of it because they can't refine it in UAE anymore?
Well, they can't refine. It's not just the UAE has been the source of a lot of goods, a lot of trade for the Iranians. We're talking about also basic food supplies, rice. And now, with the announcement of the UAE that they are cutting all of these commercial trades, basically what you have is a panic purchasing by Iranians that they are suspecting that these goods are not going to be available soon. You hear about a massive inflation of prices coupled with the depreciation of the currency.
You're really entering into panic conditions economically. People are basically trying to get rid of currency that might actually keep losing value drastically day after day and try to hoard as many goods as possible. This applies to gas, this applies to flour, this applies to rice and other basic foods. This actually shows how the economic pressure of President Trump, as well as, of course, the cooperation from our allies in the UE. can actually have indeed massive consequences for the Iranian regime.
Now whether the Iranian regime, whether the pain that the Iranian people are feeling is going to force the IRGC to change its behavior, I think it remains to be seen. Do you believe the there's a movement underway, from what you know, to arm the Iranian population? I don't believe, I haven't heard anything to that extent. I think, of course, there were plans before at the beginning of the war, but currently I don't think I haven't heard any of this. What I have heard, however, is that indeed seems to be a resurgence, gradual resurgence of protests in Iran.
You're talking about worker unions and other people who are starting to back again protesting the massive increase of prices, the depreciation of the currency. You're talking about a big part of the workforce has been laid off. I mean, a lot of their factories have been destroyed by Operation Epic Fury, especially we're talking about the military industries of the regime.
So you're talking about a large number of workers who have no work anymore, coupled with the fact whatever money that they had is that today it's worth less than half that it did worth before its value before the war, before Operation. Epic Fury, coupled with the fact that the prices increased and there are potential that the goods are not going to be available. I believe if we keep actually this pressure up, these protests will have no option but to actually increase. Do you believe that China is their number one trading partner? From what you know, do you believe the U.S.
is willing to put pressure on China? I looked at that press conference yesterday, seemingly unrelated, but the more I thought about it, maybe it wasn't, about the massive hacking that took place and the Attorney General finding out who was responsible and announced that China state actors were responsible. And I thought to myself, okay. We don't want to blow up the big meeting in September. But we listed we're putting pressure on them to stop trading with Iran, and then we announced that we know about your hacking.
And we stopped the guy and we made the arrest. We've done it. Do you think this is a s a superpower to superpower a way of pressuring? It could be. I mean, ultimately, as you said, the big meeting, the trade summit is coming up in September between President Trump and Prison Xi.
And ultimately, there will be a lot on the table.
So, until then, the United States could accumulate the various points of pressure and cards in order to pressure the Chinese to cooperate in Iran. And to be frank, I do think that this is the best strategy for the U.S. at the moment. As you said, China is their biggest trade partner. They depend on China not just to buy their oil, but also to provide them, even the IRGC, to provide the IRGC with equipment and technical expertise.
We've learned that throughout the war, Chinese provided actually satellite parts to the IRGC to help them target U.S. bases.
So I think ultimately the United States needs to confront China if we need really to get this war over and the Strait of Hormuz. Back open, I think we'll need to find a way to pressure the Chinese and to get them to cooperate on this. This is obviously not going to be easy. This is a near-peer competitor, as everyone knows, and ultimately they too have points of pressure. But I believe that if from now until September, the Trump administration is able to accumulate a portfolio of cards that we can play against the Chinese, we can get them to cooperate and to get Iran to relinquish control of this trade.
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Hussein Abu Bakr Mansoor is with us. Hussein, right now, you see, we're not really talking directly to them. People are trying to get us talking again. I don't really know if there's anything to say. Who's got the advantage?
You're talking about the Iranians. Iranians or the US?
Well, the Right now, obviously, the Iranians played, they have only one card. Everybody knows what happened to them during this war. Their leadership is decapitated. A lot of their industries got destroyed. A lot of the capabilities got degraded.
Their navy got destroyed. They had only one card, and they've already played that card, which is the straight to Formus. That's the biggest thing that they have. Ultimately, the United States have a lot of options. The president has preferences.
He's the president of the United States. He has to worry about the United States economy, about the world economy, and of course about his promises not to overcommit the United States into prolonged and open-ended military actions in the Middle East. That puts self-chosen limitations on the United States. These limitations we impose on ourselves, especially because of our needs. But ultimately, we do have a lot of cards to play.
I believe the economic war against Iran is one of our strongest cards. That will depend on. I mean, already the UAE is starting to cooperate. I hope they continue to cooperate with this. As we've spoken, China ultimately is the most important component of this.
But I believe short of this, the United States also has a lot of other points of leverage. We can go back to military strikes anytime we want. But as the President has said, I think the economic policy, given also Iran's internal conditions, is one of the most promising options. What's the status of the Red Sea? Are the Houthis trying to block that?
The Houthis are definitely arising a threat that I think the United States will have to get involved in at some point soon.
So far, the Saudis are trying to manage it. There are indications that this is going to end up another Saudi war in Yemen against the Houthis.
Now, the Houthis are trying to achieve multiple things. First of all, of course, they are trying to aid their main patrons, the Iranians, but they also have been having a lot of domestic problems internally, just their failed governance, failed economy. And these problems have been, of course, compounded by the stress that the Iran war put on the Houthis.
So, this is another attempt, which is kind of parallel to what the IRGC is trying to do, another protection racket. Forcing Saudi Arabia to try to succumb and pay them five billion dollars or whatever the amount in order to let their tankers pass. I mean, we saw them hitting a tanker, a Saudi tanker, early this week.
Now the Saudis are trying to pass most of their oil actually through up the north, through the Swiss Canal, instead of trying to go through Beb al Manda. But ultimately, the Saudis are not going to tolerate this. They are already planning various military actions through the Yemeni, the Saudi-supported Yemeni troops and Yemeni government. But I believe that the United States will have to provide, at least provide support for the Saudis in order to ensure that they can degrade the Houthis and they can deter them from trying to completely block Babel Mandam in this way. And if the Houthis, if things don't go well for the Saudis, the United States will have to get involved.
That will be, you know, obviously the Saudis have pushed back on us a couple of times and stopped us from going offensive.
Well, I mean, that seems to be the point of leverage. Hey, you want us to help you out with the Houthis? Uh we're gonna go we're gonna go hit the Iranians.
So, I mean, do you think that there's a give and take there, or do you think there's a fracture between the countries? There is definitely a fraction, but there is a give and take.
So, the Saudis recently, as we have seen, have been trying to do all of these moves to find an alternative or diversify their own security guarantee from having the United States as their main security guarantor towards having relationships with Pakistan and Turkey. We all saw the Mecca pact that was signed not too long ago between the Pakistani Prime Minister Turkish President Erdogan and the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. But ultimately, it really seems remains very questionable how strategically relevant or operationally relevant this pact. They assembled the maritime coalition. Actually, the last time we spoke, we talked about this.
They have a maritime security coalition of 14 countries that came together to secure the Red Sea.
Well, the Houthis are. Just used a ballistic missile to bomb a Saudi tanker on Monday, and none of these countries are to be seen anywhere. Nobody is.
So it's not worth the paper it's printed on. And why would it be? Turkey's got a relationship with Iran, so does Pakistan.
So who you make an alliance with? Doesn't make any sense. It does not make any sense. Ultimately, the Saudis will need the United States again if things keep, especially if things keep escalating with the Houthis like this.
So I believe then, as you've said correctly, this will be a point of privilege and it will be an opportunity for the United States to bring back our allies together, united, the way that they work, to bring Saudi policy aligned with the United States, aligned with the UAE. And ultimately, this alignment of the Gulf plus Israel plus the United States can put a unified pressure on the Iranian axis and can achieve much, much better results. Yeah, it's a complicated situation, but I get the sense it's coming to a head. And Hussein, I just gonna stick with the one premise, and it's not earth-shattering. And it's not a surprise, I do believe Iran wants to affect the election.
And I think they're waiting for one time to try to inflict casualties on us in October. We'd have an immediate brisk response. And then I'll Help maybe tilt a very close midterm election. And that's what they would like to see: a diminished President Trump. You've asked earlier about the advantages every side has.
This is one card, I think, and one advantage that the Iranians have. I mean, they are very reckless. It doesn't cost them much to escalate against us or against any of our allies. There are reports, and they are completely logical, that they are planning some sort of an escalation just right in time to interfere in the midterm elections.
So likely they will be planning this. We'll see how the United States military in the region positioned. I mean, if they're already the reports that are out there, I'm sure U.S. intelligence, Israeli intelligence are already assessing this.
So I expect if it is that they are going if it's true that they're going to come up with something like this, I expect the United States to preempt the Iranians at this point. But it definitely is not beneath Iran has a long history of trying to do exactly that.
Well, it's a complicated situation, but you break it down wonderfully. Hussein, Abu Bakr, Mansoor, thanks so much. Thank you, Brian.
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