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Of any purchase of $100 or more. That's promo code Brian. Joining us now, the White House correspondent for the Fox Business Network, Edward Lawrence, is here with us. Edward, welcome to the Brian Kilmead Show. Thank you for joining me.
Yeah. Hey, Mary. Thanks for having me. Absolutely. You can find him on X at Edward Lawrence.
So he was in clearly early because he's not like Edward Lawrence 15. He's the one and only. A little secret. I worked in Las Vegas, and Las Vegas is an early adopter to new technology. And so when X came online way back in the day, what, 2006, I think it was seven, something like that?
They made us get handles on it. And yes, very early adopter. Wow. Never give that up. It's like the 212 area code in New York, right?
Like you never want to give up your phone. All right, so let's talk about the Big Beautiful Bill and 2026. This is when we kept being told you're going to see the changes from the Big Beautiful Bill. We're going to see prosperity. We're all going to see, like, I'm expecting big stuff, right?
So, what am I going to see that's going to make me so happy?
Well, I think that tax season, that's what the White House has been pushing. When you see your taxes, you're going to notice a bigger refund in it because a lot of folks didn't change their tax withholdings last year. Yet the tax code has now changed. And that is going to show up in more money in people's wallets. This year, they're going to also start to see less being taken out as some of those changes pipe through.
The other side of the coin here is the Big Beautiful bill really helped companies also move forward, allowing the 100% depreciation on some of their equipment allows RD to go forward. It frees up cash flow. We're starting to see companies use that extra cash flow, so anecdotally, to expand. And that means more jobs, more people.
So it does. Every economist, almost every economist, I should say, that I've talked with, believes that it is going to be a big year in 2026 for the economy. All right, lots to talk about.
So I saw a report that says Americans will see an average of $1,000 in their taxes. Refunds this year because of the big beautiful bill. It is the filing season, as we were talking about, a thousand per filer. The typical payout is projected to exceed $4,000. And something like 60% of filers receive refunds.
All right, so two questions. First of all, if the Democrats shut down the government, Is that going to affect the processing of all of our tax returns and slow down those refunds? The answer is it could. It depends on how far along the before the shutdown happens, how far along the IRS is. But it could absolutely affect that unless for some reason the White House can figure out how to move money to pay those IRS workers to continue to process those checks and refunds.
So yes, a Democratic shutdown could affect the timeliness in which you get your refund.
Now, your refund will still be the same, but yeah, the timeliness is there. You know, it is interesting. I have heard a number of Republicans talk about the shutdown the first time around and the shutdown the second time around, if there is one, a second time around. And they say it's politically motivated to slow down this economy because they're seeing these huge numbers out of GDP, which we can recite. I mean, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says GDP is 4.4 percent in the third quarter.
That's up from 3.8 percent in the second quarter. moving forward. And I've heard Republicans say that Democrats are trying to slow this down and to shut down maybe one way to do it. But again, it would have could affect the timeliness of getting refunds.
Well, I find that very cynical to think that Democrats would do that to the American public. Here's the other thing, though. About 60% of filers receive refunds. Isn't the old adage that you should always wind up owing the government? The goal is to owe the government money come April 15th, not have the government owe you money, because you're just getting your own money back and you gave them an interest-free loan.
So why do so many people, first of all, is that adage true? And then secondly, so why do so many people do it? I think the adage is you want to come out to zero. You don't want to owe the government any money. You also don't want to you want to get the refund.
And the reason I say that is because you could take that money that you are giving to the federal government to hold on to and put it in the stock market or buy an S P index fund, just a general fund, and that money would grow more than just sitting in the General Treasury fund waiting to come back to you for no extra money at all.
So you're giving the Federal Government X amount of money over the course of the year just to hold on to you for you, and then you get that money back.
So you want to try and even it out. You don't want to owe the government, but you also don't want to get a big refund.
So you want to be right around zero. Yeah, we owe big time this year. But it's okay. You hear the number, you're like, oh, I got, but I'd rather owe that money than have the government be sending me that money, maybe having it delayed, whereas that money could have been making money for me.
So I just find it so fascinating. You make better decisions than the federal government with your money. That is probably one thing I think a lot of people would agree about. My husband would sometimes disagree with you on that. A little bit about the salt taxes, which are state and local taxes.
So what people, in some states, mostly blue states, New York, New Jersey, come to mind, Illinois, California, states that have high state taxes, like New Jersey with the property taxes, which are insane, you get to deduct a certain amount from your federal taxes.
So you would owe less to the feds because you get a credit for what you paid to your state. And that had been capped, I think, at $10,000. $10,000.
Now they have raised. How much did they raise it to? They went to $40,000 for tax years between 2025 and 2029.
So that means that the mortgage that you pay up to $40,000 can be taken off your federal taxes. And again, more money in your pockets. And this is a nod to some of those blue states because if you have a half a million dollar home in, let's say, North Carolina or South Carolina, that home in New Jersey, that same home, is probably going to be more than a million dollars. Just because of the higher taxes, just because of the higher cost of living. A lot of the policies that are in place in New York and New Jersey and the Northeast.
And I'm not just picking on those states, but there's other blue states. California is one of them.
So this SALT tax does help out some of those blue states. But again, it also helps people. I mean, you know, if you've got $40,000 worth of interest payments on your mortgage, then you can deduct that and you get more money back in your pocket. And listen, I do live in the People's Socialist Republic of New Jersey, so this is great, great news for me. But I think it's wildly unfair.
Because why should someone that lives in a red state that is responsible and has lower property taxes or no property taxes at all, why should they supplement mine in a communist hellhole?
So that has been an argument that's been gone on Capitol Hill between debts and Republicans. You know, should you reward from the Republican side, should you reward states that maybe don't manage their finances as well as other states or have more taxes or spend more money of those tax payer dollars? Yeah, that debate is ongoing. And whether it's right or wrong, this is where we are in the state of play. And in the Big Beautiful Bill, they had to make this compromise in order to get that through across the finish line.
All right. There's also you get to There's a new overtime deduction.
So if you work overtime, if you work more than 40 hours a week and you're an hourly employee, you don't pay taxes on that extra money you made? Is that what it is? Yes. Yes and no. I mean, there's a cap, obviously, because they couldn't give away free money.
This is not Mandami's New York. But up to $12,500, you can deduct that if you get time and a half. You get overtime there.
So yeah, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, and there are limits to each one of those. But that is, again, more money that people are going to see in their wallets. And the idea is from the White House is you take that extra money and you're going to spend it or even save it, but you're going to spend it on things that you absolutely need.
So the goal and the focus in the first part of this year is basically letting folks know that life is going to be more affordable because you're going to have more money in your pocket to buy the things. That you want to buy. 20 days, one historic move, an unbelievable journey. Melania from the Amazon MGM Studios captures the one-of-a-kind transition into the White House, showcasing the planning, the pressure, and personal moments that come with stepping into the role of the first lady for a second time. From logistical complexities, decisions made behind closed doors.
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Thank you for joining me for the 52-episode podcast series, The Life of Jesus. A listening experience that will provide hope, comfort, and understanding of the greatest story ever told. Listen and follow now at FoxnewsPodcasts.com or wherever you listen to podcasts. I also want to go to very quickly: this is Donald Trump. This is Cut 17.
Donald Trump talking about a provision in the Big Beautiful. Bill that is named after him, shockingly. Every president in modern history has left our children with nothing but debt. But under this administration, we're going to leave every child with real assets and a shot at financial freedom. Will ensure that Americans don't just end their lives with a nest egg, but instead, all Americans will begin their lives with a beautiful nest egg.
There's never been anything quite like this. I love this idea. I think it's a fantastic idea. But what do we say to the generation coming up that there's not going to be enough Social Security for? Because we allowed.
Politicians on both sides to use it as their own personal slush fund for you know to buy votes for whichever group. And we extended it far past the use of what it was intended for. And so we have a deficit, and we know that that bill has come and that trains on the tracks.
So, what do we tell that generation that's coming up that's going to be funding the Trump accounts for the generation behind them? But when they get up there to Social Security age, we're going to go, you know what? You were responsible. You saved for your retirement.
So I'm really super sorry, but we gave your money to somebody else. You know, and it also comes down to families having kids. If you have more people that are coming up, that means more money would be able to pay into Social Security. At the moment, we have fewer births. We have fewer people coming up to pay into that.
And that's part of the problem with the Social Security. But, you know, these Trump accounts do a number of different things. One, on the educational front, it from birth gets kids involved in the stock market. It's an index fund that it will be invested in. And if they do, if someone is born this year, they do absolutely nothing.
By the time they are 18 years old, they'll have about $6,000. If they're put in the maximum, which is $5,000 a year, if the family puts in up to $5,000, at 18 years old, they'll have $304,000, which could be a down payment on a home.
So it's an educational value for the kids to educate them on the stock market, on capitalism, on how this works, get them invested in this economy. And then it also gives them, you know, at 18 years old, a little bit of breathing room when they're going out to buy. A house, or if they're going to get a car, or afford their lifestyle.
So it does a number of things on this. It's actually a really good idea. Plus, it also incentivizes maybe families who, yeah, I'm going to have one child, but maybe I'll have two because we can have this account as sort of a backstop for them when they get to be 18 years old.
So, what do we tell those people who are going to be funding this for the people behind them, but are going to be told we don't have enough money to give you your share of Social Security that you paid into?
So, they get to pay twice. Yeah, and again, this is going to help supplement that Social Security. You know, something has to be done. And you know, the entitlements programs are part of the problem with the budget currently. And something is going to have to be done.
We're not at that point yet, but we're getting very close to that point. I think it's about six, seven years away, something like that, to get to that point. But Congress is going to have to deal with it. The President is going to have to deal with it. It might not be soon.
We know that Republicans want to take this on, and they want to fix this system before it's damaged beyond repair. But yeah, this account will help those folks know that there is an alternative if Social Security isn't there for them. Yeah, it's going to be ugly. And I just also see the trend on the tracks already that when poor people can't put money into their kids' account, it's not fair that the rich kids wind up with a million dollars by the time they're 21 and the poor kids don't have any more money. In their account, they only have the thousand that was in there to begin with, and that's going to be a thing, and this is going to expand.
But that's just me. I'm cynical, and I've seen the way entitlement programs have gone in the past, so I'm pretty much sure how this is going to end. Very quickly, we don't have time to play the audio, but Zora Mom Donnie says, Uh-oh, we have a deficit, and it's everybody's fault but mine, right? It's everybody else's fault. He had no idea that there was this huge deficit, so instead of trying to cut and things like that, he's giving you know free child care and the free buses and this and the that.
And he's blaming everyone else, and now he wants to raise income taxes on the top 1% by two by two percent. Is this just the beginning? It's really interesting. I did see a clip in 2023, then Mayor Adams said that if we pay for all of this free stuff for immigrants coming into the city, we'll have a $12 million budget deficit. Here we are years later, and Madame's saying, Oh my gosh.
The last mayor left me a $12 million deficit.
So it's really funny that this is out there. But yeah, no, what's happening is people will leave. The wealth creators in New York City will leave, and we're already starting to see that. They will go to Florida. They will go to Texas, where there's no state income tax, where it's more favorable to businesses.
So, you know, this is going to be an ongoing theme for New York City, and we'll have to see how it survives. Yeah, and he obviously he's also blaming Kathy Hochul because she is not interested in bringing it in front of the state assembly to raise taxes, right?
So she's senior. Right, exactly.
So she's not interested. Give it a year, Mom Donnie, and I'll do it next year if I get re-elected. That's going to happen. And of course, he's going to blame Trump. He does what communists do.
It's never their fault. It's everybody else's fault. And they're just here to help you fix the problem by making someone else pay for it.
So it is kind of fun to watch. But unfortunately, they're all moving to New Jersey. As they flee, they move to New Jersey. And then vote for the same stuff. They move to the Carolinas, Pennsylvania.
We see it all over the country, and then they move for the same stuff and then are shocked when they have to move yet again. It's a lot. Yeah, yeah. No, free stuff is great until you have to pay the bill. Didn't Marcus Thatcher say that?
Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money? Yes, exactly. Edward Lawrence, thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate it. I feel so much better about what I'm going to see in 2026.
I'm hoping, fingers crossed. Not looking forward to that big $1,000 extra in my tax refund, so that was my fault. But looking to see how this goes. All right. Thank you, Mary.
