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Michael, we're hearing good things about a possible deal with China. What are you hearing?
Well, the same thing, Brian. A key word that's being used is the framework, not an actual deal that will be signed with dollar amounts of soybeans or exactly when. The next shipment of rare earth magnets will come. It's not that kind of deal. It's so-called framework, as the word Scott Besent is used several times now.
That to me means no details are agreed to yet. Uh it's awfully hard to get Xi Jinping Who's under threat himself from internal politics for his mistakes? They get him to come to the table is President Trump's first big miracle, I think. The second miracle is the patience President Trump has shown. You know, he had Scott Besent go off to Madrid, Stockholm, London, Geneva, almost every European capital for these one or two-day meetings.
They didn't produce any agreement either. They kept using the phrase, well, we had constructive talks. That means no deal was struck.
So we're still going down to the wire in this meeting, which sometimes it takes two or three hours for even it's called the summit one-on-one. Two or three hours where the two heads of state are going to go back and forth. I think they won't be bickering. I don't think it'll be an auction. I don't think Xi Jinping will say, How about 100 billion soybeans?
And Trump then says, How about 200 billion soybeans? Won't be like that. But we need to see some kind of action come out of this meeting. Worst case is they cancel the trips they've already announced. You know, Mr.
Trump has said he and Melania are going to Beijing. In about three months. And then he's invited Xi Jinping and his wife, Madame Pong, who's actually a general in the military, folk singer. They're coming to Washington, D.C.
So that's the good news: if those two trips take place in the coming six months or so, we can get more concessions on trade, more jobs for Americans, and a safer Taiwan. If there's a walkout, the worst case is a walkout, or the meeting is canceled at the last minute, or they can't agree on anything at the meeting.
So, what I'll be watching for, Brian, is something in between the walkout, canceling the future trips, or Kumbaya, you know, China is going to buy 200 billion in soybeans in the next three or four years. Actually, I think they're going to start buying immediately. The word is they might go up, they might have gone beyond framework in the last 24 hours, and they're really optimistic it's going to be a major deal, including immediately buying soybeans. That's the key. If you ask these farmers, they need them sold yesterday.
So you can't be like, okay, it's coming down the pike. I'll see you in a month. We're going to send chips there. We're going to get to the, we'll get to. No, no, it's got to be right away.
So, and we're not asking a favor. We got the best stuff and for the best price that have already been a proven commodity for China. And I understand, too, the rare earth deal, at least for a year, they won't touch it. But I think the U.S. made huge progress in trying to counter that checkmate that they have.
And that's Malaysia signing a minerals deal. That's Thailand signing a processing deal. And that is a deal with Australia. And I think Argentina is also on the precipice, including getting some of these Central and South American countries to leave the Belt and Road program like China did.
So I think there might be some movement. Yeah, that's the optimistic side, Brian. I'm trying to give you both sides. Um In terms of soybeans, they promise very specifically Last time in January twenty twenty, And then they didn't do it. And everybody kept waiting day by day after Xi Jinping signed the deal.
And he he never bought additional soybeans. Nothing like what what he promised to do. That's why I'm underlining the the bad side for you. The downside. This kind of summit isn't necessarily scripted.
you know, the topics k are brought up by either side. And there's no sort of checklist.
Okay, now we talk about Taiwan, now we talk about ring magnets. That's what concerns me always: when you don't have. A draft communique ready to be signed by the two leaders, which they've made clear they don't have yet. Uh things can go bad.
So, I want you to hear what did they do. Evidently, China is really pushing Trump on Taiwan to soften his support. They want Trump to come out and say he does not support an independent Taiwan. He wants them to say Trump opposes Taiwan's independence. He said to incrementally move it forward, and the next leader gets closer and closer to saying essentially.
Do with Taiwan what you did with Hong Kong, just go take it back.
So they're really hyper-focused on this. And Trump has not dug in like past presidents on Taiwan, although he says I don't think they're going to take it, and I think he would back it. In fact, he's been critical of them to a degree, and he's right, saying stop spending 2 percent on your GGP, do it 5%. And they said we will. And they say, why have you locked up all the chips?
We should be sharing in that, but a free market goes to where it wants to. Your thoughts about China's focus on Taiwan and what would that mean to them for the President to say he does not support an independent Taiwan?
Well, you're right. Right now, our position has been for seven presidents. In Mandarin, we say buiao jurchur. Jurchur means support. We don't support independence for Taiwan.
That's the current. Situation. President Trump's already endorsed that in a Truth Social about a month and a half ago. part of getting to these talks. As he tweeted, Or asked I I Um Support.
The One China Policy.
Now what Beijing wants, and you're quite right, there's heavy pressure from Beijing. I don't think President Trump's going to give into it. They want him to say something you've asked previous presidents. The previous presidents have all said no. They wanted to say, we oppose.
In Mandarin, it's fan dui. We oppose independence. That implies we'll do something to stop. The trend on Taiwan toward independence. This is a huge issue between Pompeo and Trump.
Pompeo twice flew to Taiwan and said, I am for immediate, immediate diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. Trump won't do that. Trump says, no, I'm sticking with the previous seven presidents. that I don't support.
So that's where we're left. I would be astonished if Trump went all the way and said, I. oppose, and I will intervene to prevent Taiwan going independent. That's the big issue. But you're quite right.
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So Michael, the one thing I believe is happening Is that I think China's Got real problems. And the real estate problem that they have, the commercial real estate, the fact that nobody wants to invest there, that new companies aren't opening up there because of the restrictions. They thought, well, we're going to put up with it because we want their market. It doesn't look like the Chinese have any excess income. They have no social safety net.
So they're not spending.
So when we say, well, we want to open up the markets to American products, I even think to myself, so what? They can't buy anything. The younger people aren't working. And they don't seem to have at this point much national pride that's you know the patriotic pride that they've maybe had in the past. We know about the damage the single with the one-child policy has had on their country, and even though they're very smart in locking up rare earth and smart to build up their military and smart to try to get in to all these countries with the Belt and Road program, I don't necessarily think it's working out too well.
Well, they're afraid of their own economic deterioration. That's you're quite right about that. The problem Trump faces, I think, is things that Biden could have done but did not do. One of them is the rare minerals. They knew about this.
But they took none of the steps President Trump is taking, and God bless him for doing it. Biden could have done all that himself. He could have had a new agreement with Malaysia and Australia. He could have nailed down no export licenses for global. Ring magnet exports.
Biden didn't do any of that. In fact, Biden didn't even have one round, Brian, not even a single round of trade talks. by this woman named Katherine Ty, who popp no one's ever heard of. She was the head of USTR.
So Their economy could be in trouble, but that does not affect the nationalism Of Xi Jinping and his ability to run China into the ditch. He could make economic mistakes, make the economy even worse, just to look tough against Mr. Trump. Again, Brian, I'm trying to introduce you to the downside of what could happen. Partly, knowing the downside means if Trump succeeds, this is a miracle.
This is a huge achievement just to get to the meeting and get a framework done. I'll be applauding and having a glass of champagne high in the air. if just that much happens. And listen, I agree with everything, and no one knows China better than you. You wrote a book about it, and you spent your career there.
But I will say, the pandemic and the election has a lot to do with China not fulfilling what they were supposed to be doing. You know, we even forgot about phase one of this trade deal because Trump lost and the pandemic came in and they did it and have not paid one dime in restitution for it.
So we don't really think about phase one.
So I do think that factors in to a degree. But get this: I think China. Reportedly, it is starting to level off on their Russian oil purchases. And I got a report that they're going to make an announcement about that and the war in Ukraine.
Now look, we know they're tighter with Russia than they are with us. I get it. I'm totally, my eyes are wide open. But when it's a detriment to them on the global stage and they're looking to win us over to get access to our markets or relief on tariffs. They might be saying, you know what, guys?
You know, take your foot off the gas because they did not have bad relations with Ukraine prior to the invasion. That's right. And China actually has its own Ukraine peace plan. It's kind of pro-Russian, but it's halfway it's partly in between the American plan and China's own ideas. But what I'm afraid about is Trump needs to get a lot of credit if this works out.
And I don't think we should be casual or overly optimistic. that it's going to happen for sure because we're strong and China's weak. It could happen. I hope it does. But a huge amount of efforts going into this by President Trump in his second term.
And his first term, as you and I know very well, Brian, he was always fighting with Rex Tillerson or Jim Maddish or John Bolt. That's what I was just talking about.
So now he's got a real team that works for him. And I wish them a huge celebration if they pull this off. Right. And I think that Rubio says, you know, when asked his opinion, he knows to do it, but he knows who the present he'll give it. And he knows, but he's very tough on China.
Didn't China ban him from traveling there? I don't know if that's going to be even alleviated for this trip, even though they're going to meet in South Korea if it ever happens.
So I know he's just as tough on China, maybe as Pompeo, but he's going to say, Mr. President, What do you need me to do? And then he's going to say, if he says, Marco, what do you think? Marco will tell him. And that's what works.
And that's basically what works in companies. Marco Rubio won me over, Brian, when he held up a copy of my book on the floor of the Senate and said everybody should read the 100-year marathon by Michael Pillsbury.
So you can't be more of a fan than I am of Marco Rubio. But I think you're right, he knows whose the boss is and he's put aside some of his really harsh anti-communist views in order to follow this Trump strategy of the two couples exchanging state visits in the coming year. That's the success that I'm really looking for because more concessions can come out of China, Brian, once they get past. This obstacle and start looking for even more details. And frankly, I think President Trump wants China to help the American growth rate.
Remember, bringing back our jobs, expanding the markets in China under pressure for our companies. This is part of President Trump's dream that he wrote in a book 15 years ago, very clearly, but he also said in that book. The Chinese are the world's best negotiators. He says, I decided not to invest in China because they're such good negotiators. I couldn't make any profit out of it.
So Trump's got a kind of a positive view of the negotiating skills of the Chinese side. That's why I say it would be a miracle if he pulls all this off. But by the way. Whether he believes it or not, it's a great thing to say. For a country that prides itself on its pride.
Hey, you guys are great. You're going to get over on me. I'm a little wary about going in here. It's a great play.
So, Michael Pillsbury, I should have booked you on Friday. That's what I should have done to finally analyze the aftermath of the meeting. But thanks. Always great to have you on. Thanks, Michael.
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