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Download the Redfin app to get started. Yes, I'm very, very concerned about it. First, big picture, Brian. Look at how creatively Ukraine attacked into Russia, Israel attacked into Iran. Do we really expect that our adversaries haven't put such plans in place to attack us?
The next Pearl Harbor isn't going to come over the horizon. It's going to come from within the United States. But we know already that there have been sleeper cells here. In 2006, there was an astute bartender down in Arkansas who noticed that an Iranian-American member of the Arkansas National Guard was asking way too many questions. He alerted the FBI, and it turned out, upon investigation, that this person had been attacked. He alerted the FBI, and it turned out, upon investigation, that this person had been a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but lied on their immigration application.
We ended up going after him in immigration court. But the fact of the matter is, we've seen that. We've seen the Iranians work with Mexican cartels and Azerbaijani mafia. The sleeper cells are here.
Yeah, they are. And it's just amazing why they would surge our border by the hundreds and now get up to 1,504 years. Do you think they saw the vulnerability there?
Because you had an administration who is actually friendly to Iran, begging for a new deal. Well, yes, they certainly did see the vulnerability there. But Brian, it goes beyond that. Whenever any Iranian-American goes back to Iran to visit family, they get interrogated at the airport. Whether they know it or not, their computers, their phones are sucked dry. What's the likelihood that some of these people have had things on their phones or computers that make them subject to blackmail? And ultimately, that's how espionage works. Some people do it because they're ideologically motivated.
Some people do it because they want money, and other people do it to try to avoid embarrassment. The Iranians are all very sophisticated about this. But Donald Trump is also really smart, Brian, because by talking about this publicly, he's going to create panic among some of these cells. They're going to try to call their handlers. They're going to try to move. And that gives the FBI greater opportunity to try to smoke them out and intercept them.
You're the expert, but Michael, you know what would go a long way? To let them know, if there's a terror attack here from an Irani surrogate or sleeper cell, that is like an attack on our homeland. And you let Mr. Ayatollah hiding in some bunker somewhere outside Tehran, that's like going after us. That's like going after us anywhere, anytime, and we're going to go after them again hard.
Yeah, I absolutely agree with you, Brian. The only thing I would expand on that is if a hair of any American's head is harmed anywhere in the world. If you go after diplomats in Bangkok or tourists in Bulgaria, then we are coming after you hard. I mean, the great thing about Donald Trump's attack on the four donut tons and is behind nuclear power plants, whether you agree with him or not, is that he has restored American deterrence. Even the Chinese are now recognizing that the Americans are no longer the paper tiger they thought we were. If anyone now or in the future touches America, they have to consider when they do their cost benefit analysis as they plan their turn to their tourism, that we could come after them much in the same way that Donald Trump destroyed a 20 year project of the Islamic Republic. And remember, for all the Iranians talk about wanting to enrich uranium for their nuclear power station at Bushir, they haven't put any of their enriched uranium in that nuclear power station. That's a big tell that they've been lying all along. So, Michael, you one of the people that said it is worth it to take out these sites prior to the hit, even without the ceasefire that resulted in it?
Yes, I absolutely do think it was wise. Look, Brian, I understand that some people for constitutional reasons or perhaps out of animus towards Israel don't want the United States getting involved. They don't think it will make America great again. But if there is a calculation, if we have a choice, you have you can show your animosity to Israel, your spite and stand down because Israel has, according to some narratives, started something they needed the United States to finish. That's one choice.
The other question is whether doing that is actually in the security interests of the United States if Iran could reconstitute its program. A quick analogy. When you have a hornet's nest, you have two good options. One is to leave it alone. The other option is to get rid of it.
But the worst possible outcome is to lightly stand up to stand underneath it, lightly tapping it with a stick. What Donald Trump did was ensure that that wasn't what we ended up having to do with a swarm of hornets around us. Michael, the way they profile is they only understand strength and a willingness to use it.
It's not so much a big if you are hesitant to attack, they're going to take advantage of you. That's the only thing the Iranians seem to understand and many other terror groups seem to understand. I want you to hear what Lindsey Graham said, as happy as he is with ceasefire.
And I feel the same way. He's got to hear some other things. Cut 22.
Here's my question. The Iranian foreign minister said at four o'clock Mideast time, they would no longer attack Israel if Israel doesn't attack them. That's not enough for me. What I want him to say tomorrow morning is not only will we not attack Israel in the future, we recognize Israel as a legitimate member of the Mideast, a sovereign nation entitled to live in peace. And we no longer desire. We no longer will try to destroy the state of Israel. We've changed our policy when it comes to Israel. We're not close to those things, are we? No, we're not. That worries me. And we shouldn't we I mean, Lindsey Graham is right here.
He's seeing the big picture. There's absolutely no historical reason for Iran's enmity toward Israel. And we know that the reason why Iran has its missile and nuclear program was to target Israel. We know this because when the father of Iran's missile program was killed in 2011 in Persian in the newspapers, and this wasn't reported in the United States, he said he wanted his epitaph to read the man who enabled Israel's destruction. But what worries me more and I see as an intelligence failure, perhaps on par with that which sounded surrounded Iraq, is we need to know where the enriched uranium is. If we lost track of it, we need to understand how we did that, because God forbid that falls into the wrong hands that falls into terrorist hands. We can't simply talk about whether Iran can construct a nuclear bomb as we would.
The perfect can't be the enemy of the good. If they have the ability to make a dirty bomb, that's dangerous if we don't know where that enriched uranium is. Just looking through the Middle East right now, the president seems to make good progress with Qatar. I know they have a nation with two faces.
They also have to exist in a very dangerous neighborhood. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain has always been good. Jordan and Egypt. Where do you stand with the president's decision to lift sanctions from Syria? You know, just because you shave your beard and put on a business suit doesn't make you any more al Qaeda than you were. A reformed al Qaeda uses a sharp knife, not a blunt knife.
But what worries me is this. Al-Jalani is not fully in charge of Syria. He controls about 40 percent of the country.
My colleague at the Middle East Forum, Jonathan Speyer, drove across Syria and for more than 100 miles didn't see a single checkpoint of Al-Jalani's forces. We know that when he took over Syria, he had 35,000 to 40,000 men, not enough to run a country. And not all of them were so-called reformers. Now he's had to recruit so many more, many of which aren't anywhere close to reform. I'm worried that he's going to start playing a game of good cop, bad cop saying, hey, look, I've reformed.
You can't trust these rogue guys. But with a nod and a wink, he's giving them the green light. But so, Michael, this is one thing I can say. I love that he's kicking out Russia and I love that he locked out Iran. That helps.
That absolutely does. But what I worry about as Iran, as all of Iran's proxy terrorist groups are orphaned, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Iraqi militias have sat in their barracks largely out of fear of what the United States might do. Even the Houthis might be cut off. What I'm worried about is that Turkey or Pakistan might decide to throw these resistance groups a lifeline.
Good point. How what do you think it happens to Iraq now? I mean, they have not had a chance to exist without being as they've got rid of Saddam, thanks to us, without being under the thumb of the Iranians. Do you think Iran releases that grip? Because there's nothing Iran. The Iraqis and Iranians don't get along. I mean, they're just basically Iran's got the power. They got Shia. They have a Shia population.
So they saw a, I guess, relationship of convenience. But in the in the Iraqi world, they don't want to be have Iran all over their government. No, you're absolutely right. As you know, I go back and forth to Iraq quite often. Most Americans are locked in their imagery of Iraq from the Iraq war. When I talk to Iraqis, their biggest complaint about Iran is these bastards keep dumping cheap manufactured goods on us and undercutting our economy.
It's a really different discussion. The fact of the matter is, however, Iraqis have always been nationalists. They've always wanted the Americans to balance out the Iranians so they can have space to develop. If Iran is weaker, it means they're not going to want the United States there as much. And that's a good thing so that they can build and consolidate their own system, their own control. So you're saying that have what is your theory on why they have not done anything, you know, rocketing our bases or to try to even create some unrest? Is it because Iran's come off so weak they don't want to be part of this? They would they want to separate themselves from the Iranians?
Absolutely. I mean, and it's not malicious, actually, not the government, but the militias, Michael. Yeah, I've had long conversations with the Iraqis about this. First of all, the government has slowly been getting stronger.
They're able to assert force. The Iraqis are exhausted by war. They want to grow their economy. I mean, more than half the Iraqis have were born after the 2003 war. They want to be Dubai.
They don't want to be the Islamic Republic of Iran. And as elections are coming up in October in Iraq, that basically the politicians are responding to this groundswell, this new attitude from the youthful Iraqi people. Yeah, I guess there's a little bit of hope that we took our eye off the Iraq ball.
People are fatigued by it. I understand it. But it all could be coming together in a more positive way where they actually have elections and not explosions. And, you know, who knows how this thing is going to end up. And lastly, the president of the United States is going over to NATO and he's going to be meeting personally and in a bigger setting. What should his message be to NATO now about the Russian threat? He needs to be consistent about the Russian threat. He should say, look, it was important to try diplomacy. Vladimir Putin didn't respond. And what makes Donald Trump different from his predecessors is he does see the forest through the trees.
He doesn't get bogged down in process. And he should tell NATO, I'm willing to work with you. The other thing he needs to talk to NATO about, he needs to be consistent. NATO is able to do that.
The three percent of its GDP towards defense. But you can't keep shifting the goalposts, starting talking about five and so forth. That's going to lead the NATO members to sort of walk away to splinter the coalition.
And Russia will take advantage of that. Yeah. We're not at five. We're at three point seven or something like that.
We're third. So the fact is that 22 of the 22 nations are pending, too. And it looks like Germany is starting to realize they have to defend themselves.
They're even talking about having a draft in Germany. Yeah, no, look, absolutely. This is important. The Russian threat is grave and growing. People need to understand the problem with many of these rogue regimes isn't the grievance. It's not anything Ukraine did or did not. It's ideology. And that's much harder to tackle. We've got to stop fooling ourselves that there's some sort of diplomatic magic formula.
At the very least, we need to be prepared for the worst possible outcome in the hope that we can avoid it. Two quick topics. The U.S. can't be blind to China's aggression against India. I have not noticed that. I know they didn't get along. Are they beginning to amp up their anger towards each other? China is amping up its anger towards India.
It's doing what we call salami slicing, little by little tackling this. But remember, for all we talk and worry about China, China is the only country in the world that has an army made up of only children. India, every Indian soldier has on average three or four brothers and sisters.
And so for all of China's bluster, there's an open question about whether they really can go into a major war, given that the elites of Beijing and Shanghai don't want to lose their sons. Wow. I never thought about that. That's really interesting. And also, you believe even though Erdogan and President Trump have a great relationship, Turkey is a country to keep your eye on.
What do you worry about there? Look, the statistic that most defines Turkey to me comes from Turkey's own interior ministry. Since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power, the murder rate of women inside Turkey has increased 1,400 percent. And that's a result of the sense of impunity that the religious conservatives have. We see that Erdogan is becoming, in effect, a state sponsor of terror.
The only difference between him and others is that he has the shield of NATO to hide behind that makes him immune to consequence. All right. Thanks so much, Michael Rubin. Thanks for bringing us through the trouble spots of this world.
