What does Rebecca Heinrich think? Let's ask her. Hey, Rebecca, great to see you. Hey, good to be here. All right, so.
Your thoughts about the President's optimism.
So, this is really common for President Trump. When he's negotiating, he almost kind of tries to will things in the direction he wants it to go. His public comments are part of the negotiation. His public comments are always part of the negotiation.
So, I think that he's trying to demonstrate: I'm pushing it in this in the right direction. I want some momentum in this direction. And the president really has on the ground, sort of concretely, the advantage. He's got military forces in the region. He hasn't taken a single troop out of the region.
We're actually surging 6,000 more. More. We've got more, and these are forces that have specializations for in case we do some kind of raid inside the country.
So, incredible naval blockade that are still in place, very successful.
So, the president has a lot of advantage here. He's just trying to squeeze the Iranians to get them where he wants them.
So, Jack Keene thinks they have we should go for absolutely everything that the Iranians have no cards. Here's what he just told me on Fox and Friends: cut. Eight. These are less about negotiations in my mind. I know why we want to use that term.
But it's more about putting our terms on the table and you take it or leave it.
So that is the attitude we should have in dealing with these people. There's no face-saving here. We're asking them to do to surrender everything that we want without signing a surrender document. That's the face-saving aspect of this. They give us everything that we want, and we've listed all of those.
Are you as optimistic and as definitive as the general? Yeah. No, I think that the general is right that essentially we're giving the Iranians an ultimatum. You can do it the hard way or the harder way. You can either give us this opportunity to remove the nuclear material, get some international operation in there to remove it and stand by and let us do that safely, or we're going to do it forcibly.
We're going to do it militarily. And we want you to basically surrender the strait. I mean, we're not going to allow, when this thing is over, the Iranians are not going to resume threatening the strait and having control. There's going to be no toll booth over the Strait of Hormuz run by the Iranians. We talked about this before.
The Iranian oil goes to China.
So it's essentially default surrendering the strait to China if we were to do that.
So I think that General Keene is right. You know, we have all of the advantage at this point. There's no reason for President Trump to make any kind of capitulation for the Iranian side at all. The blockade was brilliant. Yeah.
So we were talking about they have the straight. What are we going to do? Gas prices are going up. No oil's in. They'll decide who gets in and out.
Two. The blockade's done. We surrounded their blockade was surrounded by our blockade. And then we've stopped 14 ships from going out. And Iran right now is essentially a week away from maximizing all their oil storage.
Well, the other thing that I think is really incredible about this is you could see the Trump administration getting the U.S. in a really good position economically and from an energy perspective, even before we launched Epic Fury.
So we made sure that the president was, we had plenty of oil on our side. We were looking at ways to get more oil flowing. We're in a good place economically. And then launches Epic Fury, then clears the strait, essentially takes out most of Iran's capabilities to threaten the strait. And then we've got naval forces in there.
So they're safely operating in there. And by the way, we've talked about this too.
Now is the time for an international armada. The United States Navy has demonstrated the strait is safe for those who are traversing through there as long as you're not stopping in Iranian ports.
So I want you to so I just want to try to get the other perspective and find out what Iran's saying. And we'll find out what they say and the amount of leverage they have. Not much leverage. But they say this. The United States, we will stop enriching to a certain point for three to five years.
We'll take the uranium that we have and we'll downblend it, but we're not giving it up. We want all the sanctions relieved and released. And you can use the straight, but on the Oman side, not our side. No, I'm just giving you the idea. Of course, Trump's not going to accept any of that.
Trevor Burrus, Jr.: No, no, no. I mean, again, and on that last point, again, that's still putting conditions on the strait. We cannot accept any kind of Iranian conditions on the straight. On the downblending, I mean, anything having to do with the Iranian, I mean, look, part of President Trump's rightful frustration with the ridiculous Obama-Iran deal was these sunset provisions, that just after a few years, that we would relieve these conditions and that there would be sanctions relief.
So that's sort of a version of the Obama deal that President Trump has rightfully rejected. Diplomacy in any way that forces the United States to trust what the Iranians have said has failed, which is why we're in the position we are now. And President Trump, again, the Iranians don't have any leverage over the United States right now to extract that kind of capitulation. I do not expect President Trump to do that.
So we're seeing the foreign minister say that the Strait of Formuzz is completely open.
So that's why maybe the m I'm just trying to I'm trying to find the story, Pete, if we can look for it. I know you've got your hands full, but the market is at 49,000 plus. And up 600 points and I'm thinking That's gotta be the reason. I mean, that's also a play. If you stop that ceasefire, because we haven't discussed this yet, but yesterday the President got the Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Lebanese leader to agree to a ceasefire that would include Hezbollah, although we're getting reports that some fighting is happening.
That was one thing that Iran asked for, because Hezbollah is solely controlled by Iran. It is. I would also just note, even on that point, though, that even according to the statement released about the conditions of that regarding Hezbollah, that President Trump has made it clear that Israel has a right to defend itself.
So we should not sort of think that Israel is being restrained in some way by the United States from defending itself if Hezbollah continues its attacks, which I would expect it to.
So this is the story, Rebecca. Rebecca Heinrich here from the Hudson Institute. This is the story that we're seeing now that's put out on Twitter, on X. In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hermuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization Of Iran. Number one, it sounds like they're in control, which is a problem.
It's international waters, they're not in control. But If you get you need 100 plus ships going through there. There's between five hundred and eight hundred tankers. I know we're not maritime experts, but do you send them through on that note? Yeah, I mean, I would send them through.
I would send them through. We have to let them through. We have to let them through, but I would be clear, though. I wouldn't send them through because I'm comfortable with anything that the Iranians say. I mean, I don't trust the Iranians.
But you have so much American naval power in the region enforcing this. And if you have any of these sort of militia guys on the Iranian side begin attacking again, I mean, that would be so unbelievably foolish. And the United States would then take out those individuals who are threatening the strait. From the beginning, what I can do is. Can I just have you one thing?
Do you believe? The Foreign Minister speaks for the IRGC. Yeah, it's from the IRGC, and there's this. Do you think there's a difference? I think that's a different difference.
Yeah, I think that there's a well, I think that there's a difference. I think what he's trying to communicate is, to your point, you've already implied, that he has control, but it's up to him, that he's controlling the strait. And so he is the one that has to bless it or not, which of course is not true. But he is, there is no, there's been a breakdown in command and control. We're not quite sure how this rump regime is able to communicate directly to these militias along the coast.
So if you just have this broad announcement in some fashion, then he may be telegraphing to them, don't fire, don't fire on these ships that might be traversing. But I also believe the story. Does it make sense? That we don't know exactly where we put the mines. You know, so that's why we sent the destroyer through, I think it was a destroyer, two.
While the negotiations were going on with J.D. Vance, I love that we send those two ships through the strait. Didn't ask no one's permission, and they were sweeping to try to find mines. Evidently, there we have drones that go search for mines, which is pretty amazing. They go search for mines, we found nothing.
But bottom line is, if Iran says we dropped them, but we don't know where we put them. Oh. I don't know if I believe that story, and if I do believe that story, why would I send my tanker through there?
Well, I mean, again, this goes back to whenever we say that Iran has closed the strait, what we really mean is they've de facto closed the strait because they're terrorizing the strait. We don't actually, they don't have any ability to physically enforce a blockade the way the United States Navy is. It's just that they have the ability, so they can just say there may be mines, we may have dropped mines, I don't know where they are, and that scares a lot of people. But if you have the U.S. Navy doing sweeping with these underwater mine surveillance apparatus to go find these drones or find these mines, and then we say they're removed, or we get Europeans, they are really good at mine sweeping, actually.
If we say, look, we found two here, three here, come get them, you got to get traffic then operating through there. I mean, there's no other way to do it. What is your reaction to 40 nations getting together, led by France and England, to talk about? Policing the strait after we're done without us. Yeah, so I think that, look.
I understand the transatlantic alliance has been really bumpy for the last year plus, but really has gotten really bumpy. But we're to the point now where I say, listen, guys, I understand that you're frustrated for the following reasons. You were not consulted before the United States launched this military operation. I get it. I thought the threats to Greenland were a major problem, were going to have material impact on the alliance.
Having said that, enough. I mean, if you come in and start, you know, just securing the strait after the military operation is over, it's like, you know, what good are you? What are you doing?
So I think we have got to get to a place where these countries just say, we are going to go in there. We're going to help the United States do this. And by the way, the more countries, the more flagships you have operating in there, the less of a risk there is. Iran can't just shoot at 35 different flagships, you know, different countries. It puts them in an impossible position.
So we really do need the help now. I think it would be great to get that traffic open. For the escorts immediately. And the thing is, we're seeing these stories, and I watch in the morning because we have so many repeats. I'm here at like 3:45 in the morning.
So I'm watching Sky and I'm watching the BBC. They're embarrassed and almost kept in the dark on how bad their Navy, bad off their Navy is. And the fact is that they had to borrow a German ship in order to help out to begin with has embarrassed the entire United Kingdom.
So you could act tough and your feelings could be hurt. You can't exist without the United States. There is no NATO without us. There's no NATO to be feared without us. No, that's exactly right.
And look, I've talked to some folks inside the administration too. And at this point, they've said, we're not even beating up. We're not even beating up on these countries at this point for their lack of military capacity. We just need them to bring something, contribute something. The more if you have a ship, if you have some mind-sweeping capability, if you have some ability to conduct surveillance, we just need whatever you can bring.
If you want to do electronic warfare and cyber stuff, whatever capability you have, bring it to the straits so that we can put it to use. And I mean, that's what we need at this point.
So, Rebecca, the other thing that everyone's got to learn from. Saudi Arabia, they say, through their pipeline and using the Red Sea, has now. Back down to the level that they were before the strait was shut down, before the war. Everyone has to reconsider. Unless till that Iran regime changes, everyone has to reconsider using the straight.
And I think all these Arab nations can no longer be the bankers for Iran. All these Gulf states, they got to stop with the wink and the nod, changing in dollars and storing their money. That's all got to stop. And everyone's got to think of an alternative to the straight-of-ramuse. We did.
Yeah. No, we did. And the other thing that they got to do is they just, this sort of, and I do think that this has begun to change, this kind of public denunciation of the Israelis and then privately kind of giving a wink and a nod to the United States and Israel. Please do handle, please help us handle the Houthis. Please, you know, take out all of these other Iranian proxies.
Publicly, you need the Gulf states to now communicate. The United States and Israel, frankly, we've been forces for good for them and the region for stability. And I do think, you know, we already have the Abraham Accords. I have viewed Epic Fury as basically the military manifestation of the Abraham Accords. You've got these Gulf partners now working with the United States and Israel.
The fact that you've got the Israelis even going into these Gulf states and helping them with air defense is incredible. It's incredible. Rebecca, what are you doing now? You going on TV after this? Yeah, got some stuff lined up.
I thought so. Rebecca Heinrich, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Thanks so much. We're riding with the breaking news. Bottom line is.
The market is very encouraged. We're getting close to 50,000 again. We might even cross that threshold again. The market's up substantially. And when the market goes up, when this thing's over, especially if it's ended the right way, every day the story is going to be gas and oil going down.
You know why? Because we don't need to drain the oil reserves. We don't need to ask Venezuela to get their bad oil from a corrupt dictator. We are doing it ourselves and Venezuela is no longer an enemy.
So anybody trying to make a political hay over the price of gas, just know it's not going to be working for you shortly, should this thing come to an end. Rebecca, thanks so much.
