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Ryan Horvat, BetMGM Tonight Host

Zach Gelb Show / Zach Gelb
The Truth Network Radio
January 13, 2023 6:47 pm

Ryan Horvat, BetMGM Tonight Host

Zach Gelb Show / Zach Gelb

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January 13, 2023 6:47 pm

Ryan Horvat joined Zach to discuss the best bets for Wild Card Weekend. 

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I'm Larry Mullins, host of the podcast, Your Weirdest Fears, the show that explores the odd things that make your heart stop. I am so scared of the Grinch.

He is bad vibes. We talk to everyone from therapists to exterminators to lizard man. I was 25 when I actually got my tongue split.

I have one tattoo that covers my entire body. Listen and subscribe on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts from. Your playoffs. Your Odyssey.

Get in the game and download the free Odyssey app today. Ryan, what's happening my man? Not too much, Zach. Just getting excited for the weekend, getting ready for the weekend. This is my favorite weekend. Obviously, divisional round weekend, championship weekend, you get the better matchups. But I like this wildcard weekend. I'm not going to complain about the extra game because it's just extra games for us to bet. And you can kind of find some matchups that you really like. I think I actually have placed a bet in every single game for the first time ever wildcard weekend this year.

Well, we'll get to those bets in just a second. But I know that you are a big-time Green Bay Packers fan. And before the season, I would have 100% thought, even with Devante Adams not being there, even if the Packers take a step back, they would make the playoffs. But was that the all-time low for you in your Packers fandom when Rodgers looks at the lines like they're gum on his cleat and still couldn't find a way to outscore the Detroit Lions, so we know we're an ascending football team?

Look, and the Lions are a great story. I think they're going to be a fun team next year. Jared Goff, what a year. That offense, so fun to watch. Ben Johnson's going to be a head coach soon in this league. But they had no excuse not to hang at least 28-30 points on the board against that Lions defense.

Yeah, they got a little bit better week 10 onward. Hutchinson's great. Probably the second-best rookie right next to sauce. But man, if you're making that kind of money, you have to hang at least 28 points against that defense.

I don't care how cold it is. I don't care who your wide receivers are. Christian Watson made a huge leap week 9 on.

Romeo Dobbs, I think he's going to be solid. That was probably the low for me, especially Zach, because the week before that, went back home, went to the game at Lambeau. We celebrated kicking the crap out of the Vikings, which is always fun, only to turn around the next week in control of their own destiny, win and get in, and they lay an egg.

So pretty disappointing, but at the same time, let's be honest, man, that team had no business getting into the playoffs. Maybe the two biggest attention whores in the NFL these days, Ryan Horvath from BetMGM tonight, is Sean McVay, who we found out today is coming back. And then also Aaron Rodgers. You being a Packers guy, I'm just so over the Rodgers story, but I still think he's coming back next season.

See, I do too, and I completely agree about McVay. I mean, I know everybody thought that he was going to go to the broadcast booth and make a ton of money, but I just, man, you're going to really, you're going to retire. And I know he could have came back in a couple of years and it's not a great cap situation. He could do the Sean Payton thing, but you knew he was coming back, especially if Aaron Donald and Stafford are coming back.

No way he was leaving after that kind of season. With Rodgers, as much as it pains me to say this, because I'm still an Aaron Rodgers fan, one of few, I think, left on this planet, I think what would work best, trade him to a team like the Jets, that is surrounded with young talent, a bunch of skilled position players, wide receivers, Breece Hall will probably be back at least by mid-season, or trade him elsewhere, because he's at that stage of his career, 39 years old, where he needs help, like Payton did those last couple of years, or even like Brady when he went to Tampa Bay and had Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I think that a change of scenery would probably be best for Rodgers, and I think it's probably time to either turn to Jordan Love or figure out what you're going to do, because I don't know that they're going to be able to go out there and trade for a veteran wide receiver like DeAndre Hopkins, and yeah, sure, so maybe Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson are a little bit better year two, but I don't think they're good enough to win 12-13 games, and that defense was a huge disappointment. People all of us thought they were going to be a top 10 defense.

They were 30th in DVOA against the run, and now they're probably bringing back Joe Berry as the defensive coordinator, so I don't see that improving, so I think it's probably best, as crazy as it sounds, to move on from Aaron Rodgers, if you could find anybody that will take on that contract, which you probably could. The two games tomorrow, Ryan Horvat, Niners are a 10-point favorite, the Chargers are a 1.5-point favorite. I like both the underdogs here. I like Jacksonville to win outright. I think the 49ers will still win, but I think Seattle finds a way, whether that's actually keeping it closer, finding a way to backdoor cover to plus the 10 points and keep this within a 10-point game.

Completely agree. If it's at 10, I really like Seattle. If it goes under 10, I don't like it so much, and I still do like San Francisco with the teaser leg, maybe with Tampa Bay, just because it's a bad matchup for the Seahawks.

I love the number because we've seen this matchup twice, and now I think this is a huge overreaction. It is Brock Purdy's first playoff game, which I do think we're overblown a little bit, only because even though Geno Smith's a veteran, it's his first playoff start as well. You know, the only problem I have with Seattle man is their offensive line. We talk about Kenneth Walker, he's probably going to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but their 30th in adjusted line yards and 24th, I believe, in run block win rate, they don't get any push up front, so any runs that are successful, it's just Kenneth Walker kind of being an all-star. And then since week 10, 28th in EPA on early downs, the reason that scares me is because Geno's came back down to earth, and if they're unable to run the ball against San Francisco, who's a top-five run defense, that means they're dropping Geno back 30, 35 times.

Crappy weather, windy conditions, possible rain, and Nick Bose on the other side of the ball. So I'm with you on Seattle, but I do worry that that one can get ugly. And then I love the Jags, man. I think the Jags will be able to score 30 points if they want in this game. The Chargers can't stop the run. I think if the Chargers lose this game, there's a shot that they would lose the job after everything that went down last week. If Mike Williams is on the field, I probably like the Chargers, and you could say, well, it's just a wide receiver. But, man, you have the game plan for Mike Williams. So I'm with you on Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence has been probably the second-best quarterback in the AFC for the last six weeks. When we get to Sunday, Dolphins and Bills, is it too obvious to just lay the 13.5 points, 13 points to Buffalo?

I don't think it is. I mean, this is probably a huge liability for the books, man, and I still would only play Buffalo in this spot. It isn't even just the quarterback position. Tyree Kilz has been dinged up, which is crazy because right now they don't even have him on the injury report. If you watched that game last week, he's hobbling around.

He could barely move right now. I think that this is a terrible matchup for Miami, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They're giving up over 430 yards per game. That's a beat-up secondary. And Josh Allen, I mean, I know that he had some bad red zone turnovers this year, Zach, but, I mean, he wasn't even throwing the football at practice.

He was more beat up than people knew about. And that dime that he had to Stefan Diggs, he looked fully back. I think the way to play the Bills here, though, just go first half. It was minus seven, minus 120 was the price.

I think it bumped up to seven and a half. I'm just going to play the Bills in the first half and not worry about a crazy backdoor cover in the second half. Ryan Horvat here with us from BetMGM tonight via BetQL. This is Zach Gelb's show on CBS Sports Radio. Earlier in the week, I liked the Giants.

Then I heard everyone say they loved the Giants. Now I'm leaning on Minnesota. This line has not moved all throughout the week. Minnesota's a three-point favorite. What's your play?

I'm with you. It seems like the Giants are becoming the public dog, but I really don't care, man. The Vikings couldn't stop the pass in that first matchup. As crazy as it sounds, you look at the splits. Daniel Jones is a much better quarterback on the road, and Minnesota's defense is a mess. And the main thing is they can't defend the play-action pass. They're last in EPA per pass against play-action. Daniel Jones this season, 35 percent of his dropbacks come off play-action. And I know that Brian Dabol and Mike Kask are going to have the perfect game plan here. Also, the Vikings just can't defend the running back passes, so I love Saquon receptions and receiving yards.

I believe the number is three-and-a-half and 22-and-a-half receiving yards. And I think the Giants are going to be able to score here. The Vikings are bottom five in red zone defense. I think Saquon's going to get in the end zone. Also, on the other side of the ball, I know the Vikings have been a fun story offensively with Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, but that offensive line is beat up, man. They're on their third string center, a backup tackle. I really like the Giants, who are finally healthy on the defensive line. I think they're going to get some pressure. I think Wink will have the perfect game plan, and I think they'll get home on Cousins a couple times.

I do think the Giants win this game outright. So we know either it's going to be Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown starting at quarterback for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson, not returning the Bengals. You know, Collins is out.

Kappa is out on the right side of that offensive line. I'm surprised the spread here is only Cincy minus eight-and-a-half. I thought it would reflect not as big as the Bills-Dolphins game, but what do you think of this spread? Is that too low of a spread with Lamar not playing, the fact that the Bengals are only an eight-and-a-half point favorite? I think if you want to play the Bengals in this spot, use them as a teaser, right?

Like, tease them if you like. Maybe you like Dallas, maybe you like Tampa Bay, or maybe you like the Bills. Maybe just use them as a teaser leg, because the number scares me a little bit if Tyler Huntley is able to play. If it's Anthony Brown, I don't think the number could go big enough, to be honest. I mean, he's terrible. Not that Tyler Huntley has been great. He's not going to push the ball down the field. The reason I like this matchup is because J.K. Dobbins finally looks healthy the last four weeks, and then Harbaugh was smart enough to sit him last week.

So, he's coming off some rest. And Baltimore's defensive line, I think, has a chance to get after Joe Burrow in this game. Cincinnati is all beat up on the offensive line as well here. Baltimore, really good special teams.

You might see a lot of Justin Tucker. I like his field goal props, and I think it's going to be a low-scoring game. I like the under, and I actually really like Baltimore to cover, as long as Tyler Huntley is the starting quarterback. If we see Anthony Brown, get right off and just play Cincinnati, because I think they'll win that game by 20-plus. And then on Monday night, Cowboys and Buccaneers might take about the Bucks for the last two months. I don't believe in them, and you know me, I'm the biggest Brady fan on the planet, but as we enter this game, I don't trust Dallas. I'll take the points here with Tampa Bay plus two-and-a-half. Same here.

Grabbed it at three. I think there's a chance that Tampa Bay actually wins this game, and there's a chance that they make a little run in the NFC, because all season long, man, they've been beat up on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary. Now they're healthy. I keep trying to make the case for Dallas, because it seems so easy, but it's Mike McCarthy, right, going against Tom Brady, and I know Brady's never lost to the Cowboys. I don't really care about that. What I care about, Dak, since coming back week seven, has faced some of the worst defenses in the league. The Eagles probably being the best, and he has just not looked right this season. I know that they could run the ball, but I think that the Bucks are the play here. I think that they have a shot to win this game outright. As long as Brady and Mike Evans are on the same page, because a couple weeks ago, I thought we over blew that comeback win against the Panthers. They had to come back from down 10 points to Sam Darnold and the Panthers.

But at least in that game, Evans had 10 grabs over 200 yards and three touchdowns. So as long as they're on the same page, I like Tampa Bay to cover, maybe even win this thing outright. So, Horvat, I'm in Colorado right now, visiting my sister and my brother-in-law, and I know for Saturday and Sunday, my brother-in-law and I will be watching all these games and betting on them.

I'm going to do a Ryan Horvat parlay. You tell me what to bet, and I'm going to ride you, because you've been pretty damn good all throughout the year. Give me one spread out of these five games, one over-under, and one prop bet that you like the most. All right, I like the under 42 and Seahawks 49ers. I don't know that Seattle is going to be able to score. And if you don't love that one, then I love the over.

If you want to root for points, I'll throw you another one. I like the over and Chargers-Jags. I think Keenan Allen is going to be a nightmare matchup. I think Austin Eckler is going to have a big day. So go with Austin-Eckler receptions.

The Jags just cannot defend running back passes. So, Austin-Eckler receptions, even I think it's at 4.5, and then go with the under 42 Seahawks 49ers. You've got to go with the first half. Bill 7.7 and a half over the Dolphins.

Throw that in there. And then lastly, I like Baltimore. If you could stomach it, take Baltimore over Cincinnati. The other narrative play I have in that one, man, is just how much trash that Cincinnati has been talking. Joe Mixon, you saw it the other day. Joe Burrow at the podium.

I absolutely loved it. But the new norm around here is we're going to wear our t-shirts, smoke our cigars. That's a really good Baltimore defense, and I think there's some bulleted board material.

So I would throw Baltimore in there as well. Ryan Horvat, we appreciate it. You be well.

Ben MGM tonight via Beck UL. Make sure you check him out. Thanks so much, Horvat.

Thanks, Zach. I'll text you those in case I went too long with it. So get started and download the free Odyssey app today. The listening you love is on the free Odyssey app. Your trusted local radio stations, coverage of your favorite teams, live news from your hometown, and millions of podcasts on demand. Best of all, you can completely customize your listening experience. Follow topics you care about, like leagues and teams. Pause or rewind your local sports and news and add shows to your queue to catch up later. There's a lot to listen to.

So get started and download the free Odyssey app today. I'm Larry Mullins, host of the podcast, Your Weirdest Fears, the show that explores the odd things that make your heart stop. I am so scared of the Grinch. He is bad vibes. We talk to everyone from therapists to exterminators to lizard man. I was 25 when I actually got my tongue split.

I have one tattoo that covers my entire body. Listen and subscribe on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts from.
Whisper: medium.en / 2023-01-13 20:12:27 / 2023-01-13 20:19:48 / 7

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