Jon Rothstein, CBS Sports College Basketball Analyst

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Find it wherever you buy laundry products. Alrighty, we continue this Zach Gelb show on CBS Sports Radio. I love FanDuel. You should love FanDuel. John Rothstein, of course, loves FanDuel. And John Rothstein joins us right now to tip off the college basketball season.

He is college basketball's hungriest insider joining us on the Zach Gelb show brought to you by FanDuel. John, appreciate the time. Thanks so much. How are you? Great, Zach. Always good to be with you, buddy.

Well, thanks so much for coming on. So you never know what happens when the ball gets thrown up into the air to start off a new season. Just what an effort last night by James Madison, surprising everybody, taking down Michigan State as a top five team.

What was your reaction to it? College basketball is where the unexpected becomes the ordinary. And we saw that obviously, again, at the highest level. I think, though, when you really look at things from where teams were projected in the preseason, Michigan State was voted fourth in the Associated Press preseason top 25, a poll that I'm a member of. I voted the Spartans fourth as well. And then we saw a team, James Madison, who was picked to win the Sunbelt. So it wasn't like they were a non-factor as a mid-major in terms of their projections. And James Madison was still good enough to go to East Lansing and win the game. And I think this is the big thing that really makes college basketball so compelling, because one of the things that I think, you know, we look at is the one thing that you always tend to lean to in this movement, obviously, with immediate eligibility for players, and the lack of player retention now at an all-time high in college basketball, is you lean towards teams that bring everybody back of significance to have a leg up. Michigan State brings back everybody of significance from last year's team that went to the Sweet 16, except Joey Hauser. And the Spartans still were not able to beat a James Madison team that is picked to be one of the best in the Sunbelt.

So this to me is what makes the sport so compelling. It goes back to what we talked about, Zach, in the spring with Fairleigh Dickinson. Fairleigh Dickinson, remember, was not good enough under Tobin Anderson to earn an automatic qualifier out of the Northeast Conference. Merrimack was, but because of that transition rule, Merrimack was not eligible to play in the NCAA tournament.

Merrimack then steps out of the way. Fairleigh Dickinson plays a very good game against Texas Southern in the first four, and then goes and beats Purdue in the biggest upset in the history of the NCAA tournament. And look, I want to make this clear. Analytics are a great thing. They're a tremendous resource.

I'm sure you use them for all sports that you cover because you do a general talk show. But Fairleigh Dickinson was, I believe, finally last season ranked when all the Ken Palm Analytics came out at 265. But they were still good enough one time to beat Purdue, who was dominant in the Big Ten. Dominant, obviously, with the National Player of the Year and dominant enough to win both the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles. And they were still, on one day, bad enough to fall victim to a team that completely earned a victory, but finished the season, according to, you know, the analytics website KenPalm.com, ranked at 265.

Remember, Zach, it's not anarchy. It's just college basketball. The great John Rothstein here with us while college basketball season is now officially back. You mentioned Purdue. The last time we saw a 16-seed go take down a one-seed, it was Virginia and UMBC. We know Virginia did go on to win the national championship the following season. What do you think Purdue has the potential of doing this year? They got the potential to do that, Zach. And I think the one thing you marvel at with Purdue, how about the way they hit the ground running against Sanford last night? Twenty-nine assists on 34 made field goals. Nobody on Purdue took more than nine shots. They've done a good job adding a little bit more bounce on the perimeter with guys like Miles Coleman and Lance Jones and also Cameron Heide.

But the bottom line is this. The story is not written yet for Purdue, and I talked about this with Matt Painter last week. The story can still be bookended with a Final Four appearance for the first time for the Boilers since 1980, but anything less than an appearance in the Final Four will not allow Purdue to truly exercise its demons. This is a fan base, remember, that in 2018 had a team good enough to go to the Final Four. What happens in the round of 32?

Isaac Haas suffers an elbow injury. We all remember what happened in 2019 when Purdue in the Elite Eight had Virginia beat at the KFC Yum Center but lost to the Cavs in overtime. Twenty-one, you lose to North Texas in the round of 64. Twenty-two, you lose to St. Peters in the Sweet 16. Twenty-three, you are the recipient of the biggest upset in the history of the tournament. Purdue fans, their alumni, everybody associated with that program over the last half decade has been taken to the gates of hell. We'll see if they find heaven in 2024.

What a way to put it. John Rothstein here with us. Let's get to Duke. Last year, first year without Coach K as the head honcho. John Shire got better as the season did progress, just got rewarded with the six-year extension, which is a wonderful world that we live in after one year. Duke right now is the second best team in the country in the AP poll. When you look at Duke, how confident are you, regardless of what the contract says, that John Shire is the right guy to replace Coach Mike Krzyzewski? Well, he's shown it so far. I thought John Shire did an excellent job last year in his first year as head coach, and he's assembled in his second season, the best roster in college basketball.

And I don't think that's up for debate, but I also want to point this out. Just because you are recruiting a certain caliber of player does not mean that you're automatically going to have the team that's going to advance the furthest in the NCAA tournament. Let's look back at Duke last year.

All the players that right now are in Durham that are back for another season. Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach, Mark Mitchell, Ryan Young, Kyle Swipowski, they were on that team, plus Derek Lively, plus Dereek Whitehead. Who did Duke lose to in the NCAA tournament? Tennessee. Who did Tennessee not have in the NCAA tournament?

Zaki Ziegler, its starting point guard. And just because of the size, the physicality, the hard-nosed mentality of Rick Barnes, and really the collective will, Tennessee didn't just beat Duke in the NCAA tournament, they bullied Duke 65-52. It was not a single-digit loss for the Blue Devils. When you get to the topic of replacing a legend, we just talked about Coach K getting replaced by John Shire. We've also seen the end of Jay Wright and Roy Williams as well. As you now get into your number three with Hubert Davis and then your number two for Kyle Neptune, how do you look at both the Tar Heels and Villanova? You know, sometimes in college basketball, more so than any other sport, we sometimes let the performances in the NCAA tournament dictate what we're going to think about certain teams the following year. North Carolina a year ago returned four starters from a team that went to the national title game at a 15-point lead on Kansas at the half, but wound up losing in 2022.

Why wouldn't we vote them number one in the country to start last season? They missed the NCAA tournament. This year, you have a scenario with Florida Atlantic where they nearly lost to Memphis in the NCAA tournament, beat the Tigers, then go through Fairleigh Dickinson, then go through Tennessee without its point guard, go to the Final Four, should have beaten San Diego State. I think because of all that returns, you have to rank those teams high in the preseason with the understanding that they were the byproduct of a great run, not necessarily a great season. For Hubert Davis in North Carolina, they have to have a season where they're entering the NCAA tournament as a threat to advance.

I think that's within the reach of this team. RJ Davis and Armando Bacott are bona fide All-Americans. Elliot Cadeau, the talented freshman, the best passing point guard that North Carolina has had since Kendall Marshall. And as far as Kyle Neptune goes, look, Jay Wright is probably as difficult a guy to follow as there is in sports, not just for what he did for Villanova basketball, but what he did for Villanova as a brand, as a university. Now, with that said, Kyle Neptune deserves the benefit of the doubt because, yes, he won 17 and 17 last season in his first year as Villanova's head coach, but Cam Whitmore did not start the season healthy. Villanova played 34 times last season. Justin Moore, an All-American candidate and a Big East Player of the Year candidate for the upcoming season, only played in 13 of those games. Justin Moore is healthy for the full season. Forget about Cam Whitmore.

Villanova is comfortably in the NCAA tournament. Jon Rothstein here with us on behalf of FanDuel. You had the story today that Kansas has amended the lifetime contract for Bill Self, making him the highest paid coach in college basketball. He's 60.

You now have the amended lifetime contract. How much longer do you think he actually wants to coach for? You know, we always wonder with these coaches, how long are they going to do it? But then we look at a scenario where you ask yourselves, well, these guys have been coaches for 40 years and these guys are competitors because they were initially great players at the highest level of college sports or high school sports. What are they going to do if they're not coaching?

Some transition to broadcasting, as Jay Wright obviously has done in the CBS family as well as with Warner Brothers Discovery. But at the same time, you know, these guys are coaches. We saw Mike Krzyzewski coach well into his 70s. I've had a lot of conversations with Tom Izzo about this. I don't know what these guys would do if they weren't coaching.

And one thing I've learned, even though I'm only 40, blank pages are never a good thing. Idle time is truly the devil's worship. Let's get to Rick Pitino. A lot of excitement around the St. John's program with him becoming the head coach. However long this lasts, when it's all said and done for Pitino at St. John's. How do you think we're talking about what he accomplished with the Johnny's with tremendous success with his presence, elevating St. John's back to being a national brand? You know, people have to remember St. John's has not won an NCAA tournament game since 2000.

That is the longest active drought among teams that are currently in the Big East. Rick Pitino has won at Providence, took the Friars to the Final Four, won national championships at Kentucky and Louisville respectively. But the big thing that people need to remember when it comes to Rick Pitino is this.

He has not always needed the best talent to win at the highest level. And I tell people about this all the time because to me, this was the most underrated coaching job that he did in his career. And a lot of people forget about it because Louisville that year lost to Morehead State in the NCAA tournaments round of 64. Louisville that year, 2010-2011 season. Remember, that was the year where the Big East got 11 of the 16 teams in the conference into the NCAA tournament. The same year that UConn won the national championship with Kemba Walker was Jim Calhoun's third. Louisville that year started Peyton Siva as a sophomore, started Preston Knowles, who is a very good college player, Chris Smith, who transferred from Manhattan, Kyle Couric as an undersized power forward and Terrence Jennings at the five. Louisville that year wins 25 games, gets a high seed in the NCAA tournament, was a four seed in the NCAA tournament, went to the Big East tournament title game, lost to UConn. But Rick Pitino in that Big East, where 11 of the 16 teams made the NCAA tournament, was still able to squeeze 25 wins out of that group. And Zach, that set the table for what happened the next two years because in 2012, Louisville went to a Final Four, lost to Anthony Davis in Kentucky, and then in 2013, they won the whole thing with Siva and Russ Smith. But those players, Russ Smith, players like that, turned out to be fantastic players.

But a big reason why was the player development that was instilled in them by Rick Pitino. John Rothstein, by the way, what are your expectations for Kentucky this year? I expect Kentucky to be built more in the fabric of a vintage John Calipari team. John Calipari has, you know, really gotten away, I think, from the transfer portal.

I think he went to the transfer portal the past two years and it didn't have the same feel in terms of the way that the roster was put together. And we've got some good players at Kentucky through the transfer portal. But this to me has the feel of a vintage Calipari recruiting class.

Robert Dillingham, D.J. Wagner, Justin Edwards, a young man who, when I was doing the Iverson Classic last spring for CBS, I felt was the top prospect in this class, along with Isaiah Collier. I think Kentucky is going to be better late than it is early.

But during tournament time, I think this is a team that definitely has the potential to reach the second weekend and do some damage. And, you know, Zach, one of the interesting things, you know, I've been covering the sport now close to 20 years at the national level. The SEC has transitioned as a conference, and this is what I mean by that. For so long, it was Kentucky when Calipari was at Kentucky and Billy Donovan was at Florida. It was Kentucky and Florida and everybody else.

Now, all of a sudden, it's a league with great volume. Tennessee has become a team that's a known commodity under Rick Barnes. Tennessee has averaged 24 wins a year. Yeah, the last six years. Arkansas, Alabama has had good teams under NATO.

It's all Vernon Bruce Pearl, a very consistent product. Buzz Williams is a Texas A&M. I don't know if the SEC is the best conference in college basketball, but I do know this. The SEC has a chance to push for the most representation in the 2024 NCAA tournament among power conference teams. Wouldn't shock me if eight or nine are right there on Selection Sunday. Well, give me a team or two, John Rothstein, that you're hot on that some people aren't really talking about entering this season. Five Dark Horse candidates right now for the 2024 Final Four.

When I say Dark Horse, I want to make sure that they're off the radar. St. Mary's out of the West Coast Conference. Gales haven't been back to the NCAA tournament second weekend since 2010.

Great young guard in Aiden Mahaney. They also have another player who I think is going to make a big jump in Augustus Marshallonis, the son of Sarunas Marshallonis. But remember, St. Mary's played UConn in the round of 32.

A big portion of that nucleus is back. I mentioned Texas A&M. Texas A&M, again, made the NCAA tournament last year. Wade Taylor, the fourth All-American candidate. Returning starters include Tyrese Radford and Henry Coleman, Julius Marble right now, currently suspended, not a part of the team.

That's something to monitor. But A&M right now actively with three starters back and obviously a coach in Buzz Williams that has taken multiple programs. Marquette and Virginia Tech to the Sweet 16. Why not Memphis? Penny Hardaway has gotten away from taking obviously the talented freshman like Precious Ochoa, like James Wiseman. Players in that mold and now has put together a roster loaded with transfers. Zach, last night when Memphis opened the 23-24 college basketball season, as of last night, the average age in Memphis' starting five was 23 years old. That's three Final Four Dark Horses, two more.

One played last night in Las Vegas. It's USC. Simply because of the perimeter pop that this team has with Isaiah Collier, with Boogie Ellis, and a player in Kobe Johnson who I firmly believe will be, to the Trojans this season, what Jalen Clark was for UCLA a year ago.

He will be the best perimeter defender in the Pac-12. And I wrap it up with Illinois. Illinois is a team who I thought never had good chemistry last year. Brad Underwood went to the transfer portal, wanted to get older, did so by adding Southern Illinois grad transfer Marcus Domask and also Justin Harmon from Utah Valley. Illinois is playing now with great positional size and great depth and with multiple players in the starting lineup. Terrence Shannon Jr., Ty Rogers, Marcus Domask, who we talked about, and Luke Goody, who was hurt at the start of last season but finally got healthy towards the end, who stands 6'6 or taller.

I think right now, Illinois, Maryland, and Wisconsin are right behind Purdue and Michigan State at the top of the Big Ten. Last thing for John Rothstein. I know LeBron James gave an encouraging update last night on Bronny James. I still don't know when he's going to come back, but when he does get on a basketball court, what are you hearing about the type of player that he could be in the college game this year?

I saw Bronny James in practice. Obviously, he could be a really nice piece to USC's depth. USC, though, needs to obviously make sure that he's obviously in the best mental state. That's the most important thing for him beyond basketball. But I think you're looking at USC right now as a team that pound for pound, inch for inch has the most complete perimeter in the sport.

I wrote about this today. Isaiah Collier looked the part last night of a first-team All-American of a lottery pick. Boogie Ellis, again to me, was the guy I thought was the Pac-12 preseason player of the year.

And I'll say it again. Kobe Johnson will be to USC this year what Jalen Clark was to UCLA last year. He's the great Jon Rothstein on behalf of FanDuel.

Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 Moneyline bet. Jon, happy college basketball season. Thanks so much for doing this. Thanks, Zach. We'll sleep in May.