Ryan Horvat, BetMGM Tonight Host

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Get in the game and download the free Odyssey app today. Ryan, how you been? Not as good as you because here at the studio I go up to the cafeteria, we don't even have the planting hot Cheetos anymore. We don't have any bacon wrapped dogs or anything like that. We barely have, I don't even think we have Doritos right now, so I wish I was where you are. Here in DC, we don't have that kind of stuff. Well, I have to place a phone call then to our dear friend Mitch Rosen, who's your boss, and tell them they got to pick up the food game there in the DC studios.

They really do. See, that's been the biggest transition for me, man, is moving from, well, I grew up in Chicago and then I spent the last couple years in Wisconsin, so the food on the East Coast, much different. Well, where you are, the food's great, but in DC, it's kind of hit or miss. Well, also when you were working in Wisconsin and you were working for Bart Winkler, like Bart is a celebrity there. He got hooked up at so many of those restaurants. I went out with Bart when I was in Milwaukee and we just ate for free everywhere we went. Yeah, man, and the food there is addicting. As soon as you get to Wisconsin, as soon as you cross the border, all you smell is cheese. It's everywhere, but I miss the cheese curse the most, obviously.

Yes, and a few spotted cows as well. Anyway, I always say this each and every year, and I probably should say this each and every week with my picks, but I really do feel this way. I think the toughest week to bet is actually Wild Card Weekend. I got destroyed last week, so let's see if we can do a little bit better in the divisional round. I'll start you off, Jacksonville, Kansas City.

This is the one game, Horvath, that I just have no feel on. I think Kansas City's going to win. I hate plussing the points when it usually goes against Kansas City, but nine is a big number. Where are you at as the Chiefs right now are a nine-point favorite?

Yeah, I agree. Nine's a big number, and with the total being the highest of the weekend, the total sitting there at 53, it's kind of telling me that they think the Jags are the side here because the 53 total points are going to be scored in this game. You would think that Jacksonville's going to put some points on the board. You know, last week didn't look good for them. They won that game, though, despite being minus five in turnovers, which you never see.

Usually that means you're losing that game by three scores. And even though I went back and watched, even though Trevor Lawrence threw those four picks, some of those were flukey interceptions. He only had one turnover-worthy throw, which was really hard to believe. Everybody keeps, when we talk about the Chiefs, we talk about their offense, but their defense has actually been much improved. If you go all the way back since week eight, they're number eight in EPA per play allowed. So they're kind of limited in those explosive plays, and what scares me a little bit, because I took the points with Jags and Phil, I just thought nine was too many. Kansas City having the bye is obviously beneficial, but they haven't played in two weeks.

They really have struggled to cover these big numbers the last couple years. You know, you saw that they did beat up on the Raiders, but they almost lost to the Broncos a couple weeks ago. The Texans played them really close. What concerns me, though, is the matchup. Trevor Lawrence has looked really good the second half of the season, but Jags right now has Kansas City playing a whole bunch of two-high shell. In fact, they're playing it right now at the fourth highest rate in the league. Trevor Lawrence, he's rated quarterback number 19 against those looks. And for context, against man coverage, he's the number one rated quarterback in the league the final 12 weeks of the season. Also, the Chiefs have made some adjustments on the defensive side of the ball.

They're rookie DB Trent McDuffie is playing more inside, so I think maybe now they move with Jarius Snead to the outside. Maybe that shuts down Christian Kirk. I think nine is too many points. Ultimately, though, I do think Kansas City wins this game. They move on, but I do like the Jags to hopefully keep it close.

With the total, I guess I lean me over, but man, 53, that's way too many points for me to get involved. Ryan Horvath here with us, BetMGM tonight via BeckQL. Giants and Eagles, I'll be there coming up tomorrow evening at 8.15 p.m. Eastern. Looking forward to being in the building for that one. I think the Eagles win, but I like the Giants to cover the seven and a half. You? Yeah, I agree, man.

I think we were texting about this, and I was going back and forth up until about Thursday. The reason I really like the Giants, I mean, historically, this is just a great bet. Their eight-and-one is playoff dog since 2007. I know this is Daniel Jones, not Eli Manning, but I like them because of Daniel Jones right now.

I think they're going to have to switch some things up, but I trust Brian Daible and Mike Kafka to do that. The Eagles, they limit the explosive plays. You can't hit the explosives on them, but they do, I mean, you could run the ball on them, and also, they struggle to defend those passes between one to nine yards.

They struggle against the shortstop. Last week against Minnesota, I really liked the Giants and Daniel Jones because Minnesota struggles to defend play-action passes, and Daniel Jones this season, using play-action on 35 percent of his drop-backs. He's not going to be able to do that against Philadelphia.

They're number one defending play-action passes, but I think they're going to be able to do the dink-and-dunk stuff, get rid of the ball quickly. What I find hard to believe, Daniel Jones, the road split, he's a better quarterback on the road, so I don't think the home field advantage is going to be a huge thing against him. Since week nine, he's actually quarterback eight.

He's a top-ten quarterback, an EPA-plus completion percentage over expectation. He's been really good on early downs. That's big against the Eagles, man, because we don't want to see Daniel Jones in third-and-eight, third-and-seven known passing downs.

He's a crazy thing, and I think he deserves to get paid. He's done this all since week nine against the second-toughest schedule of opposing defenses, so it's not like he's been seeing a bunch of cupcake defenses. I think the Giants are going to be able to keep this game close. The other concern I have, you go back, you watch that game week 18, Jalen Hurts returns.

No quarterback design runs, though. I don't know how healthy he is. I know he's had a couple weeks here to heal up, but he also only had four throws in that game, I believe, 10 yards down the field. I'm a little worried about his health, so I think the Giants at least keep this game close.

Anything over seven, I like New York. When I look at the Bills-Bangles game, it seems like Vegas is begging you, imploring you to take the points here, because these two teams are so even. These two teams, I think, could be the two best teams in the AFC. This feels like an AFC championship game, even though it's getting played this weekend. That's why I kind of lean Buffalo in this game, because, hey, whoever has the ball will ask you to go drive down the field, get a touchdown, and then you go cover the spread.

If it's like 27-20 or somewhere in that realm, maybe it's 37-30 if it's more a little bit high-scoring. Do you get that feel, too, that Vegas is begging you to take the points here with Cincinnati, or do you look at this spread differently? No, this game is really hard, because if it's played two or three weeks ago, Buffalo is a two-and-a-half point favorite on a neutral field. I think that maybe the market is overreacting a little bit to the offensive line injuries for the Bengals, but I'm not. That's three missing starters on the offensive line, and everybody keeps bringing up the fact that Joe Burrow played behind a makeshift offensive line and took that team to the Super Bowl last year. But Buffalo's defense is finally getting healthy.

The only concern I have... So I've played Buffalo. I'm with you. I think that they're begging you to take the Bengals.

I'm not going to do it. I think this is Buffalo's year. I think they're coming out of the AFC. But the only concern I have is Buffalo's defense. I think we overrate them just a little bit, especially since the Von Miller injury.

Very fair. They're not getting the same pressure, man, and they're having to blitz more, which now you're not able to drop all those guys back in the secondary in coverage against Joe Burrow and all those wide receivers. What I find really hard to believe is on third down, they're getting the second least pressure in the league, only next to the Chicago Bears since that Von Miller injury. So I do like Buffalo, but that's the only thing that makes me a little bit nervous. I don't like betting against Joe Burrow, and right now they're not getting a whole lot of pressure. And we saw it last week in that game against Baltimore.

Burrow was just getting rid of the ball really quickly. So it's always scary betting against him, but I'm with you. I like Buffalo, man. As long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over in the red zone, I think we'll be alright there. Ryan Horvat, Cowboys and Niners. My producer Hot Take Kick, he said there's a 0% chance Dallas wins, and there's a 0% chance that the Niners aren't going to cover in this game. He thinks the Niners will win. He thinks they're going to blow out Dallas. I never, never, ever, ever, ever support the Dallas Cowboys.

I said it in the open. I think the Cowboys cover, and I'm even thinking that they're going to win this game outright. Yeah, I've talked myself into Dallas too, and I don't trust Mike McCarthy.

I never trust Dallas, but I think this is a different situation here. You know, the concern I had with Dallas last week, the reason I kind of like Tampa Bay with the points, was the pass defense. You know, they're just 26 in pass defense since week 14, the Cowboys are. But the thing is, if they get pressure, like they did in that Tampa Bay game, like if Parson looks like he did last week and he's fully healthy, and they could get pressure on Brock Purdy and force him into making some mistakes, I think they win this game if they force two turnovers. The other concern I have with San Francisco, so they're really good against the run. They stop the run and they take away the middle of the field because Fred Warner and their linebackers can cover.

We know how good Nick Bose is. But you could actually get them on the outside, and they also struggle right out defending slot wide receivers. Slot receivers are averaging almost 10 yards per reception against the 49ers. That's where C.D. Lamb's lining up on 70% of his routes run.

So I really like C.D. Lamb to go over his receiving yard, and I like Dallas. As long as Dak, again, same thing with Josh Allen, as long as when Dak gets into the red zone, we don't get those stupid interceptions, they're able to run the ball somewhat with Zeke and Tony Pollard. I want more Tony Pollard, less Zeke.

And again, they got us forced to turn over to contain Christian McCaffrey. I think Dallas is live to win this game. There's going to be an upset this weekend, and I think that's the one. All right, Ryan Horvat, last thing we'll ask you.

We got to do the ride with Ryan Horvat parlay. Give me a favorite spread this weekend, your favorite over-under, and then your favorite prop bet. All right, so my favorite spread, we're going to go with Dallas plus four, as scary as that is.

But try to get the four, of course. I know there's some three-and-a-halfs out there right now. My favorite total, I'm actually, I like the over in the Cincinnati-Buffalo game. A lot of people making the case for the under.

I just, I can't do it with Burrow and Josh Allen, even with a beat-up offensive line. I think Cincinnati's going to score some points. I know Buffalo's going to score some points. Let's go over anything around 48, 48-and-a-half. We'll see where some of these close, of course. My favorite prop bet, definitely the Travis Kelce, over six-and-a-half receptions. It's a little juiced right now.

I believe it's minus 125 if you get it at that MGM. Jacksonville just cannot cover the middle of the field. So pick your choice. You either go with Travis Kelce or you could go with JuJu Smith-Shuster, over four-and-a-half receptions.

I like both. The Jags are just getting torched, especially tight ends across the middle. Worst team in the league defending that spot on the field. So really like Kelce this week. Ryan Horvat, appreciate the time as always. Bet MGM tonight via Beck QL. Thanks so much.

Thanks so much for having me, Zach. The NFL playoffs live on Odyssey. Nonstop coverage from the biggest sports radio stations in the country. Podcasts dedicated to each NFL team and postseason games streaming live for free.

Your playoffs, your Odyssey. Get in the game and download the free Odyssey app today. The listening you love is on the free Odyssey app. Your trusted local radio stations, coverage of your favorite teams, live news from your hometown, and millions of podcasts on demand.

Best of all, you can completely customize your listening experience. Follow topics you care about, like leagues and teams. Pause or rewind your local sports and news. And add shows to your queue to catch up later. There's a lot to listen to. So get started and download the free Odyssey app today. The listening you love is on the free Odyssey app. Your trusted local radio stations, coverage of your favorite teams, live news from your hometown, and millions of podcasts on demand. Best of all, you can completely customize your listening experience. Follow topics you care about, like leagues and teams. Pause or rewind your local sports and news. And add shows to your queue to catch up later. There's a lot to listen to. So get started and download the free Odyssey app today.