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February 15, 2023 2:36 pm

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The Steve Noble Show / Steve Noble

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February 15, 2023 2:36 pm

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Steve talks to Steve Lewis from LA Capitol Advisors about the market in 2022 and where it’s going in 2023.

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Wake up, everyone. It's time for The Steve Noble Show, where biblical Christianity meets the everyday issues of life, in your home, at work, and even in politics. Steve is an ordinary man who believes in an extraordinary God, and on his show, there's plenty of grace and lots of truth, but no sacred cows. Call Steve now at 866-34-TRUTH. That's 866-34-TRUTH, or check him out online at thestevenobleshow.com. And now, here's your host, Steve Noble. It's a good way to start your interview with your air quotes friend when he listens to the introduction to your show and says, you have no grace, full of grace and truth. He says, you have no grace. So, I'm going to prove you wrong. The stuff, the stuff you said before the show? I'm not saying.

All right. So, if you recognize the other voice in the room, that is obviously not me. That's the other Steve. That's Steve Lewis from LA Capital Advisors, who is allegedly one of my closest friends.

Would you agree with that statement? Yeah, I got to think about it. Well, at least you're my friend today because the market is up. Oh, it came back. So, when it's up 38 points, I go, hey, that's Steve Lewis guy. I love him. But when it's down, I'm like, what's Steve doing?

And then, but that's not a conditional relationship. We still have grace involved there. Anyway, Steve Lewis, good to see you. How are you? Happy New Year. Happy New Year, yeah. Do you still have, how many kids do you guys have now?

I do this every time. Yes, you do. The last I counted, 12. The last I counted. Six are out of the house and- Praise Jesus. Hopefully, two more next year.

Wow, isn't that awesome? To graduate from high school. I mean, every time I turn around, the Lewis family has a wedding announcement, a baby announcement, something. Somebody's moved out, two kids have moved in and gotten an apartment together. Well, not the baby announcement from Thea, I mean from the children. Right, from your kids.

Right, I have a second grandchild coming in April. How cool is that? Congratulations. Absolutely.

So, that's pretty cool. So, six out of the house now. Do you feel like an empty nester almost?

You can definitely feel the difference. Oh, well, yeah. It's not like you live in a 22,000 square foot house. Yeah, but you have the teenagers. I mean, challenging adults on everything and questioning this, questioning that, entitlement. Wait a second.

Social media. Your teenagers do that? Oh, my. Yeah. Wow, that's foreign to me.

Yes, it's tough. Well, we were talking about this before the show and we'll actually talk about a bunch of financial stuff today from a market perspective. With David, it's from a precious metals perspective, but with Steve as a financial advisor.

It's from a different perspective, which is helpful for all of us to kind of round out our knowledge and understanding what's going on out there. I love being... I'm about to turn 57 and I hate it when this happens. Does this ever happen to you? I just was about to say something great and it just disappeared. It just left me.

It's gone. No, I'm two years old and I don't have those problems. I mean, what's going on with you? I feel perfectly fine here. Right. Yeah, good. Congratulations. I mean, you're standing on the table turning on lights. Turning on lights? Well, that's because my intern isn't here today.

So, I have to do all this stuff myself. They quit. They got smart and they quit.

He didn't quit. He's well paid. That's why they're here. Exactly. They're not here doing the Lord's work.

They're just here collecting a check. Right. I got it. Anyway, it's good to see you. Happy New Year and kids out of the house. Happy New Year. Yeah, well, it is.

Well, you haven't been on the radio this year yet, so it's Happy New Year. It's not my problem. Right. That's true. I ask you every week. No, no, not that.

That is a bald-faced lie. You do not ask every week. Well, I intend to. We don't even talk every week, but that's not my fault. We used to.

What happened? I took you out for coffee, what, three weeks ago. Yeah, yeah. That was... Is that your idea? And you were late. Is that your idea?

Nothing went wrong that time. Was that your idea? I mean, you're 57. You're late.

Going out for coffee? But you're late. I'm late to everything. Was that your idea? What? What? For us getting together and having a coffee. Being late or are you being 57 trying to find excuses for everything?

Having coffee. Oh, it was my idea. Was that your idea? Well, God bless you. You're a way better guy than Thea says, so that's good.

Thea being as a wife who's given birth 10 times, and then they adopted two brothers from Ethiopia. So don't mess with the Lewis family when it comes to a knowledge of under... Okay, why are we here? Let's move on. So, all right.

So when you look back at 2022 in terms of the market, how do you describe last year in terms of the market? It was really... Well, it didn't have to happen. Well, that's an interesting reply. What do you mean by that? Well, you go back to... Can I get political on this show or can I? Yeah, I think you're probably safe doing that. Go ahead. Oh, okay. Am I hearing my voice on that thing? You are. I'm trying to shut it up.

Go ahead. Well, executive actions that were signed were designed to cut energy and lumber production. And take the lumber production. We had nine million acres in Alaska on federal land that we would lumber, right here in the good old United States of America.

Right, yeah. You would think that would be good. Then you cut, what, 30 something percent of the oil refinery capacity. And really, then they brag about, hey, we're opening up federal land. Well, they haven't really provided many permits to do that. And so we got to buy our lumber from Canada and Germany. Yeah, which is not great. And then you multiply the transportation costs by three times and you have $25 at that point.

Two by fours. You wonder, geez, really? Right. So, I mean, a lot of it was just self-inflicted wounds. I mean, still, you know.

All right. So why do you think the Biden administration, because I'm not going to give Joe Biden all the credit because I don't think he's all that much in control of his thoughts or his actions, but what was their point? Like, why would they do that? Well, he had to support those who got him in office. That's their green agenda. Is that what drove a lot of that? Yeah. And now there's a lot of pushback right now. The many conference calls that we are on, especially on the EV side, you have Vinfast coming into the Pittsburgh area.

Of course. What is that? It's another EV company. Another electric vehicle. Not everybody understands EV.

Electric vehicle out of Korea and South Korea. And, you know, Triangle Business Journal had a piece that they're not on track to do what they said they wanted to do by producing trucks by December of next year. They haven't broke ground yet. And then there's been some funding issues that came disclosed with debt.

And so we're just going to see. And then a lot of people are talking about now what it takes on the mineral size to get to the, just to produce the battery. Yeah, just to make the battery. But you pretty much have to rape the earth to pull it off. And if you're going to take the whole economy over to electric and solar, there's going to be a whole lot of raping going on because you're going to have these batteries. And guess who's got a lot of the things that you need for batteries?

That would be countries like, I don't know, China, Russia, places. Well, that being the case, I mean, last year, there's a lot of interest. People, you know, getting on the bandwagon because they hear something on CNBC about, hey, get on lithium.

Let's get on these metals and LTHM and SQM. These are all mineral like exchange traded funds and all that. And, you know, they had their run and then they bounce right back. I mean, investors business daily made it a real good point. They had, you know, 80, 90 percent of their breakout stocks that are normally do well in normal market conditions didn't last long. So we had a lot of pullbacks last year. Standard deviations were really high.

And it was it was sideways. You know, the thing is, Steve, is, you know, Chairman Powell are just looking at the numbers and the data. Yeah. They're not speaking to people. No, not at all. Well, that's the funny thing about the Democrats.

They say they're all for the people, but they pretty much ignore us all the time. Talking to Steve Lewis, hold that thought. We're hitting a break. We'll be right back. Welcome back at Steve Noble, The Steve Noble Show.

Great to be with you today. The two Steves in the house today. Steve Lewis is here from L.A. Capital Advisors, a dear friend of mine. And by the way, when I bring him in here, when he's willing to come in and he comes in and we talk about these things, just so you know, Steve L. helps the Steve in family with our financial stuff. OK, so if he didn't, I'm not going to just have anybody in here I don't do business with and trust.

So just get that and understand he's a follower of Christ as well. So that should all plug into your ability and your willingness to listen and take to heart what he's talking about, because he doesn't know what he's talking about. So anyway, it's great to have you, Steve.

Thanks as always for coming in and sharing. We were talking about last year and didn't have to be as bad as it was because everything the government did, the Biden administration did, which harmed the harm the economy overall, as we know. And then, of course, in the State of the Union address, he's talking about bringing inflation down because it came down a half a point, but it was still really high inflation. And then the number came out yesterday. CPI came out yesterday up up a half a point.

Right. So when we look back at last year, I asked you this question right before we hit the break. Were there any segments that that did okay? Any segments of the economy that did okay that were kind of even or did they all lose? And then what's what are we looking at this year?

They all lost. Well, it's funny you mentioned Biden taking credit for inflation when he's saying it's been Chairman Powell's command for the last couple of years. Oh, we can't do much with the you know, but now it's coming down. His plan is working right now. It's me.

And then it comes back and it's been like this all the time. Right. But believe it or not, people believe it. You know, people are headliners.

So they believe what they want to believe. But yeah, last year I had energy at oil. It was an up and down year. You know, what made it difficult managing last year when you came out of twenty twenty one, we had a good GDP quarter three, twenty twenty one, good GDP quarter four. And we don't get the quarter one of twenty twenty two until late April. So almost five months in when we get the first announcement, then you get two revisions after that. The second revision is just a week before they announced quarter two. And so it was negative, like one six. And then it came back just barely negative on quarter two.

Now, am I just overly skeptical or can I assume that they did that on purpose? Well, if it was anyone else other in office, it would have been a big, big, you know, the our our word would have been on recession, would have been all over the place. So they suppressed it very well for this guy. And it's always been, you know, to negative GDP. Hey, that's recession, you know. And so you have, despite all the finance professors saying that it is people on squawk, it's NBC, Bloomberg, they're all saying the same thing.

But, you know, on that side of Washington, you're not going to get it. But that being the case, it was very hard to navigate. At the same time, you had all the interest rate increases. And what that does, it creates an inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve is that when the five, like the one year Treasury is yielding higher than 30 or in the 30 year. And that creates a problem because then you have what does that tell you generally about the state of the economy?

Well, we got it. Well, it even becomes inverted when you print more money. And so we have rising interest rates already. And then you print money. Does it tell you the government's that is that desperation?

We're willing to pay you more for putting a Band-Aid over. And then, too, they want to be look like that. They're doing something right. Yeah.

And really just sometimes you have to let it run its course. And so a lot of people thought Powell should have done that back in 2021. Yeah. Why do you wait until 2022? And then, I mean, you destroyed the mortgage industry. Oh, man, the layoffs are in the in the seven, eight thousand.

The company that would just do, you know, reverse, not reverse, not reverse mortgages, but refice and other different things. Not to mention the auto industry and the banks on doing that. I mean, Wells Fargo's almost walked away from it. I mean, and just getting bad. Goldman Sachs laid off, I think, thirty eight hundred people last month. I mean, it's it's big.

It's really, really big. So Biden stands up there last week and acts like everything's turning up. No one's talking to people on the ground. Yeah. I mean, it's who we speak to every day by clients. I mean, all they have is, you know, their 401Ks or their that's moved into IRAs. They might move a job. And and, you know, people that I know well who have their monies with someone else, they didn't do any selling.

Yeah. I mean, in April they came in. They were already down 30 percent in April last year. And and yet they have salaries. They have to budget around that with all the costs and raising families.

And while the average family in America had to spend seven thousand dollars more last year than they did the year before for the same stuff, which is what inflation. Well, it goes back to the management side and that I didn't I didn't run into one person last year I spoke to. We spoke to probably less than 30 fresh people and not one person affiliation with their adviser did any selling.

Nothing. They just rode it to the bottom of the ocean. And so if you did any selling at 18, if you lost 18 or 22, 23 in that range, that was good. Because geometrically, remember, growth is geometrical. The Nasdaq was a negative 61 percent geometrically. The S&P was about a negative 41 to 42.

So, yeah, sure. I mean, not super easy to recover from. Well, no, I mean, you lose 40 percent.

You need about an 81 percent. You know, that's what people mess up. Every time you mention that, I always jump in because, hey, well, I was down 30 percent last year. So as soon as the market comes back up 30 percent, I'm back to even. No, but that's wrong because you're working with a smaller basis. So you're going to have to take a lot more growth. Right. To recover that 30 percent.

You have to manage linear losses. And a perfect world is great. You know, we're looking at the you know, here we are in February looking at the numbers here. Yeah, the numbers here.

And, you know, every sector is up by utilities and communications. But things look like but look at the deviations. Right. And the deviation looks like a good ride at an amusement. Yeah.

And but it doesn't mean you should be all in. You know, now, what's good about rising interest rates? CDs are great.

Normally, we would call them the certificate of disappointment. But you know, they're doing pretty well. I get a 4.4, 4.4 rate on a one month annual yield. Yeah, that's crazy. That's not bad. At least you got cash doing something.

Yeah, right. And so we've been doing a lot of CDs. And that's really a bond, you know, from a bank. And a broker is not going to touch a CD because even though it's might be in the best interest, they don't get it. They don't get they're not making any money.

No. So, you know, there's a lot of ways you can get return, you know, but then you go into bond funds. And because you know, it used to be that you go into a bond fund, a very low risk, we call low beta, like Barclays aggregate index, AGG, Black Rocks, it's, it's about as exciting to have in your portfolio as you watching a snail move across the driveway. And that's what it's doing.

But hey, it lost almost 16% last year. Wow. So you can't, you can't offset risk with those.

So the only asset class that you risk free would be cash. Yeah. And so you had to do that thing. So we moved in and out, we carried an average as a firm 57% cash last year. And never ever, ever in my 20 years doing that that happened.

You've never seen that. And so you go back and forth. Well, when the winds are blowing like crazy, generally, you need to pull your sales down. Yeah. Right. Yeah. And cash allows you to do that. It's an asset class. Every professor of finance will tell you that. But you know, you won't hear it out there.

No. But you know, and so you look at what's working right now. It's still very cautious. It's, you know, like the market swings on a daily basis. Last week, the market opened at at negative 300 and it closed at 300 up. That's a 600 point swing in less than four hours. And you look at these things.

Things is big. So, you know, we do a lot of extended PM trades, which means we can trade overnight. After the market closes.

Well, after, until about eight. And you can do AM trades. And what that's, what were you really using that ability to do is when you're dealing with large players in the market, like Amazon, Meta, Google, Alphabet, these different things, because they can turn the NASDAQ on a dime. And so we always watch for those earnings periods.

And you had last year made it down 79 percent. Yeah. Yeah.

Could happen to a better guy. Anyway. Exactly right.

That's exactly right. Hold that thought right there. We're going to pick it up.

They're talking about what we can perhaps expect to see in the rest of this year. We're talking to Steve Lewis, L.A. Capital Advisors. This is Steve Noble.

So many things to think about and consider because we're called to be good stewards of whatever amount of money we have. We'll be right back. Welcome back at Steve Noble.

The Steve Noble Show here with Steve Lewis, L.A. Capital Advisors talking about the markets today with a little bit of humor here and there when I choose to introduce it. And there you go. But you were the one that's all snarky to start today. You came in here with just a bad attitude. I didn't. You said I have no grace. You have no love.

So between the two of us, what are we? It's not good. It's not good, bro. I don't care. Whatever.

Move on. All right. So we were talking about different. How many different segments are there sectors in the economy? There's 11 and there's 88 industries. So give us an example of what these sectors are. So people, when you were talking about sectors, they know what we're talking about. Healthcare.

Right. Materials, utilities, communications, discretionary spending, non discretionary spending. What's non discretionary spending? Finance. Stuff that you have to spend. Staples.

OK. So in the market. Gotta buy food.

Gotta buy. When the market wants to bowl up, that sector will fall. What did well last year? Staples. What companies did well in that sector? Kellogg's, Nabisco.

You had those kind of things. General Mills did very, very well. The exchange traded funds associated did very, very well. The moment people get a little bullish, those things will just take the opposite turn. I mean, they're paying a four point seven dividend, too.

Pretty aggressive. But yeah, yeah, yeah. So you have these sectors, but then within a sector you have industries. You have industries.

So give us some examples of that. Healthcare. You have healthcare services. You have biotechnology in there.

You have pharmaceuticals are in the healthcare sector. Yeah. So now this year you're actually trying to go from macro to micro, meaning you don't just like just just don't look at a sector.

Now you actually have to go dig in and you got somebody helping you manage your money that's going to look at specific industries because it's getting harder to find the needle in the haystack. Is that am I reading that right? Right. Right. And so does any as you look through all of that here in February of twenty twenty three and look forward.

Is there anything where you're like have any optimism whatsoever or is it just a big question mark? Well, Ukraine has has assisted us in some respects because the industrial sector, Boeing, GE, are doing very well. There is an exchange traded fund called DFEN for defense. You have Lockheed Martin in there, Raytheon and different things because war makes money for certain. And that's really doing well. And then you have the some of the technology contributors to that are also kind of doing semiconductor chips.

You're off when we're off the air. You talked about semiconductors and and what we did in Arizona. Biden, you know, he did good going down there and making that case.

It's a Taiwan TSN is the symbol for their Taiwan company to make that. But they're going to be making something in Arizona. Yeah. He didn't go to the border, though, but he had other things to do. The border is fine.

Yeah, he's fine. But yeah, you do have to fine tune a little bit where, you know, a CRM and and, you know, which is an employment company. And now is another one. Salesforce is another one. And so you look at these things to find it. We're finding it in semiconductors. We're seeing it in industrial stocks, using any materials.

Lithium is going to be up and down, up and down energy. We're still a hold on that. We're not too bullish on that. There's absolutely nothing in health care right now because the COVID vaccine is kind of not too popular now.

Yeah, I noticed that. I just shared a story earlier today based on CDC numbers. Naomi Wolf did a little video about it the other day, and it showed that of the women that were involved that got pregnant while they were doing the trials for I don't know if it was Moderna, I think it was Pfizer, that they had the ones that got pregnant had a 44% miscarriage rate. Well, the regular miscarriage rate in America is about 10%, 12%. But they had a 44%. And that's documented within CDC, their own information. Right.

And so that stuff slowly coming out to your point, I don't want to digress, but no, that's that's a big deal. Yeah, there's, you know, it's, you know, really is only six sectors out of 11 that are really looking pretty good. We like to watch each sector's 200 day and 50 exponential moving average. When they break through both of those, that has been working out pretty well.

The trailing stops that we always talk about that we use, we have pulled those because of the deviations. We've seen too many sell and for it to break back up. Right.

So in a short period of time. Right. So we're trying to just look at those moving averages more than anything else. We now have access to real time moving averages before the market opens. So that helps us stay ahead of we have to sell something instead of getting behind. So you pretty much have to have your radar screen on all the time. Unlike the federal government with balloons, you guys are paying attention because you have to all the time.

Yeah, I'm looking for needles. Yeah. I mean, IBM has had a had a bad earnings a couple weeks ago, and they haven't really recovered from that from a moving average perspective. But that you know, the Nasdaq is now above those two marks, which is a great thing.

You can just you don't want to pick winners and losers just grab the QQQ, which is Invesco's exchange. It's a nice exposure. Keep it small. But that's kind of tracking an industry. It's not an individual. It's a sector. Well, it's a whole index. Okay. Yeah. I mean, it's not just one company.

It's got everything in the Nasdaq 100 in it. Wow. So I mean, people can do that instead of picking winners and losers.

And they could probably do fine with that, you know, but you just have to be careful with that. With new clients coming on. And by the way, we're talking to Steve Lewis from LA Capital Advisors. That's his website, too, by the way.

LACapitaladvisors.com. And talking to new clients, what like, why are people switching? Because I think we still have a significant number of people that are just being told, buy it, hold it, don't worry about it.

Markets come, markets go. People aren't switching. There, they're sitting tight. They'll come in and they'll ask you, they like what it's going, but they have a tough time breaking from someone they met him with for eight years. Yeah. Because of the relationship. There's a guy that came in.

They're not comfortable, quote unquote, firing their current broker. We've had several already this year. Yeah.

But you know, a couple come in and say, well, he's good friends of ours. He gives us hurricane tickets. I said, yeah, but you're down six figures. Yeah. Who cares about the hurricane tickets? And so.

Buy your own if you can actually get back some of the way you lost. Yeah. Then you have the spouse saying, honey, you know, so all I do is answer their questions. It gets a little, you know, you look at what this is and you know, you can look at a portfolio and see who's it benefiting. The broker, you know, or the other side.

Test question. Well, you can also sell because investment advisors play by the same rules. I mean, they hire these third party money managers. The person across the desk can't do anything, but they're not going to tell you you can't do anything. Right. Right. You know, would you do business somebody say, Hey, listen, I have no autonomy, but please come on board. No, of course not.

No. And they don't. But I think people normally kind of assume the best, I guess. And you have to understand the business and everybody in the business is in the business ultimately.

Listen, they lost a lot and they're thinking, well, you're about to hang in there, honey. Yeah. You know, and why bother Tom? You know, I don't know. It's, we don't really, we don't judge anybody on that.

Everybody has their own story and their own history. I appreciate that. You know, you have people who have, you know, lost their spouse and spouse like this guy for a lot of years and the surviving spouse wants. Yeah.

I mean, it's tough. Let's uh, I'm going to turn the corner a little bit and just talk about, uh, most of the people listening to Christian radio today are, they're our age, they're in their mid to late fifties and sixties and older. Uh, I want to talk about kind of how somebody should, that's nearing retirement or is hoping to near retirement, should be looking at all of this and reacting appropriately in terms of being a good steward of whatever the Lord has allowed them to accumulate. But let's let, I want to keep our conversation for the rest of the show kind of focused on that.

So talk to them. Well, what do we need for those of us that are pushing towards retirement? How should we be viewing all this stuff and thinking about 401ks and IRAs and Roth and all that kind of stuff? Well, you really have to be careful. You have to look at everything.

Everything's on the table. Um, and uh, we've, we've had a lot of interest in annuities now because they're contractually guaranteed and they don't want to run out of money. And so they want to find some, okay, listen, I want to mitigate, uh, what I have, what I need to have come in the house every month, every year, you know, three years from now. And we work through that. Uh, we're seeing a lot of that, a lot of that.

Um, they like to know that. Yeah. I mean, you can go into bonds and have more liquidity than an annuity and still get a good coupon, a five coupon, seven coupon. Maybe that's a lot of people, all that they want when the bond matures, they do it again. Yeah.

Um, just keep rolling it over. Um, annuities will have now, um, um, home health care benefits at no additional cost or risk. It's guaranteed issue, assuming you're not already in a facility. They have a lot of these different benefits. Um, but with, be more specific on the management side, I think, uh, you know, we now work with Schwab trust bank and uh, we were at the chamber event this morning where the host for the Holly Springs chamber, we had 25 members in there and we talked about this issue is that, is that, um, as a fiduciary on a, on a 401k plan, uh, we take the employer, the owner completely off the table as far as carrying liability.

Schwab trust bank becomes a fiduciary, river edge retirement resources becomes it and we become as the advisor and then we're able to give advice to the, to the members because me, the advisor, I create the menu options that they can work with. Ah, okay. It's a lot more flexible, right? And it's cheap as dirt. It's very inexpensive. It's, it's very, very, very inexpensive.

So that's a route. If you're a business owner, it's a good idea to really look at your members options. Yeah. Money.

Many, um, employers say, Hey, by law, I've got to get one. Hey Tom, who are you using? You know, they go with this guy who Tom's using and they don't care. Hey, I just have to give one you guys something right. You know? And so at some of them are pathetic.

Oh, the ones we see are like, Oh wow, I can't believe. I mean, so, and then on the other side that we can now do is that we can take a member's 401k if they want us to, and then we can actually go into their portal and manage that. Oh, you can go in and manage it and trade it. Okay.

That's interesting. I hope that thought we'll talk about that when we come back. Just strategy ways to think properly as you move towards retirement here with my friend Steve Lewis, LA Capital Advisors. So we'll keep the conversation about retirement, lacapitaladvisors.com. We'll be right back.

I'm not a big fan personally of Pastor Robert Jefferson and Dallas. Anyway, welcome back at Steve Noble, The Steve Noble Show here with my buddy, Steve Lewis, LA Capital Advisors, lacapitaladvisors.com is his website. And, uh, trying to spend our time here at the end of the show talking about, uh, retirement since most of us, most of you listening, you're probably north of 50, north of 60.

And so this is a challenging environment, uh, kind of the buy them and hold them just sit and in five years, everything will be fine. Can, can we really afford to play it that way anymore? Steve? No. Um, I mean, you know, the values that we lost last year within our clients, you know, people want to get it back as anything else. Right.

Even though it was well below national average, you know, I, I, I, I take it personally that, you know, we did what we could do. Right. Um, but, um, but you know, it's just, I have to just be very careful with, especially in your 401ks.

I think if you have some counsel, I mean, and that's, that's your, that's your thing. I mean, what, what would you do if you were going to retire this year and your 401k lost 40% last year? Yeah, you can't. I mean, it changes things. Right. I mean, he had 800,000 when he started last year and you lose 40% of that.

Oh man, $320,000 gone. Now you're having another discussion with your spouse. Yeah. It's, it's all over the place. It's going to change your whole plan.

It is really, really, really, really all over the place. With 401ks for example, are most individuals that have 401ks, are they, are they paying much attention to how that's being managed or they just look at returns? By law on paper, ERISA, the regulars, it can't be managed. All you can do is call the rep on the phone, your service person, your 800 number that you have, Hey, I want to move this from that. Well, what does, what do you re they won't give any recommendation. Some you can, um, I think my son, he's with Duke energy, Tim, he can go and do the trades right online, but you just, nobody to talk to.

Yeah, you're not getting any advice. No, but you can be, uh, you can have a fiduciary advisor assigned to the plan if the trustee wants to. Um, and then that person then can communicate with the members.

The advisor cannot execute the trades if they're on managing the plan over all among other people, but they can give the members the opportunity to go online and, and do it personally over the phone and do stuff like that. And then the other side, you can, um, again, if we don't have the plan, we can go into individual members with IBM or SAS or anybody like that and say, you work for SAS. Uh, you can come on board with us as a, as a client. And then, um, have you heard of it? Have you heard of Experian, right? Yeah.

Experian boost where you can boost your, you, you log into your bank portal through Experian and you can see your utility bills and get boost your score. Well, this is the same technology. Oh, Ponteir is the company. We go through them. We, we find, say it's with, um, fidelity, the client signs in or the member signs in and boom, we have that option. Then, and then we can now trade on their behalf through that third party portal. And then, and it's very easy to do.

It's very easy, very quick. We get information, all the funds, cause most of these funds are proprietary. They're not available in the open market. So you have to, you have a lot of data. If somebody works for a big company like SAS, how do they, how do they pull that off where you can like, what are the, what kind of hoops do they have to jump through? Nothing.

They just, we go on the Ponteir site, uh, registered to us to use and they log in and now Ponteir has it in their, in their, you know, software and you can go in and look at it. Then I can log in and move whatever I want to move. Wow. Yeah. So is that relatively new?

Yes. That option. Cause the overwhelming majority of people with 401ks, it's just, there's money in there. You look at the returns, you don't really know how it's being managed and, and that's it.

It's like somebody took my money halfway around the world. I'll see it when I need it in a few years. But active management in this kind of environment. Yeah. Now I'd be subject to what they have. Sure.

Of course. I mean, I don't, you know, we had someone show me all they had was eight options. I said, I know I really, I can't really work with eight options. Cause that's all that's available through the plan.

All that's available. Is that a plan that's like stuck in 1985 or what? Well, this company is, Oh my gosh, it's about a $4 billion company annually in revenue. They do whatever they want. Yeah.

That's sad. And it's all the members have to work with. Yeah. Yeah.

So what's so, so for people that are in retirement working towards retirement, if they're panicking right now, just because last year was so challenging and bad the year before grade obviously. But what do you tell them? Well, if, if I'm on the outside looking into their stuff, it's a different discussion than if we're doing it right. Of course.

But you have to look at everything. What do you, what's your goal? What's your outlook? What's, what's a realistic thing that we can do?

And what, where do you need this number to be? And we're hoping that these numbers continue to stick, but it's a lot of people think it's falsified and overvalued because because of, you know, more rate increases. I mean, the fed was not happy with the, what happened this week. Yeah. With consumer price index going up a half a point.

So according to the other presidents of the region are saying, well, yeah, we, you're gonna probably keep going. Yeah. I saw a quarter recently.

I saw that story earlier today. And then one more quarter point and then hold for the rest of the year. I think keep raising a quarter. I don't see, I don't know how the consumer is going to make it. Yeah. I mean, we remember Jimmy Carter.

I mean, I was in high school, but I just don't see how people can handle. I mean that the shrapnel is so vast that in Washington DC, the feds, they don't have a clue what it is. They don't, I'm not talking to Mr and Mrs Paycheck us. Right. They're not, they're not raising children. I mean, they will actually want the economy to contract and be get bad in order to say, okay, we're going to stop this. But people are still eating. They still need just packaged goods.

That's right. And, and really you have companies that are just inflation, inflating their, their bottom line because they can a lot of, a lot of sin in this conversation at an institutional level, at a governmental level, because everything ultimately is spiritual. We can talk in numbers and stuff, but that's all based on how companies are managed, the decisions that are made at a human level. And then the government's interaction with that. I'm right now in my U S history class this week, we were talking about the gilded age come, you know, finishing up the 18 hundreds and as you get the Carnegie's and the standard oils and all that kind of stuff, then the government starts to get involved. And in many ways for a good reason to try to curb some of the issues with monopolies. That's when we get child labor laws, compulsory public education, all kinds of stuff. So there, there's some places where the government needs to step in cause it's the only one that can.

But after that, you're still dealing with a sin issue. You're stealing with how, how Janet Yellen operates, how Biden operates, how the Biden administration operates. What's their worldview? What do they think about their neighbor? All that stuff.

Everything's ultimately spiritual. And then it manifests in, well, like what we're talking about in the, in the world of finance, but it always comes back to whether they're listening or care. And I don't think they really care. They're playing a different game than the rest.

Most of us are playing survival. They're playing what? The great reset. I mean, it's so, it's so disjointed.

It's so disconnected from real life is the, is what's coming our way. Nikki Haley just announced Trump obviously announced before back to politics. Is any of that over the next 10 months going to matter politically to what the market does? Won't matter until we get to November of next year. Yeah. Then maybe it might matter. Maybe.

I mean, what are you going to run on? I mean, yeah. I mean, Trump opened up the oil industry in remarkable ways. Yeah. I mean, the jobs that were created with Keystone that got cut immediately was amazing. I mean, just, I mean, economy is very subjective.

If you feel good about something down the road, I mean, you just want to go out and have a good time. Yeah. I mean, still, and Fuquay Varena, Aviator, these, these breweries are just, they're swamped. They're absolutely just swamped.

But I mean, my wife and I, we don't got too much, but is that just distraction? People want to believe everything's okay. So they act like everything's okay.

There's a lot of anxiety. Yeah. And people just want to escape reality for a little bit and get out of the house. I mean, I think they do. And it's fun just to get out and yeah.

But you know, gosh, a burger or something and a drink is 16, $17. Yeah. It's remarkable. It's really crazy.

I mean, absolutely nuts. So it's, you know, then you have the, the private owner who's selling food and restaurant style. They, they, they want business too.

So it's, I don't, I really just don't see they keep raising a rate, quarter rate here and there is gonna, I mean, it's, I mean, it's brutal really. Yeah. I mean, the real estate is if you're a real estate broker, I mean, you're flying high for those years.

I hope you save some of that money. Bragging about it, buying these new cars and bragging about it, face on billboards, you know, all these other things. And now it's, I mean, completely gone, completely gone. Yeah. Does, uh, and we have about two minutes left. Uh, does the, does the national debt picture factor in at all for the markets? It doesn't seem like there's any connection there.

There isn't, but in terms of the value of the dollar, it is. Yeah. So when we see the dollar strengthened on the other side of the, of the world, it kind of a lot brings alarms over on this side of the, oh my gosh, things are gonna cost this China and Saudi Arabia and Russia and getting away from the U S dollar as the world reserve currency. Is that a, is that a concern for you?

No, I haven't said I haven't not ended up in the conversations I've had. But if that, if that does happen and now Saudi Arabia is willing to take any kind of currency, you don't need dollars cause that's going to hurt the dollar. Yeah. The United States is so play such an integral part in the treaty we have with Saudi. We signed wait after the war, you know, World War II.

I don't, I don't see that they're going to play games with that. They need us. Yeah, it's interesting. And the treaty that we signed in 48 I think it was. So don't be freaking out about the dollar just yet. It's just, it's important in terms of interest rates and the weight we're carrying. It's, it's sad that, you know, you know, I like what the new speaker is talking about and, you know, um, revenue neutral with, with this debt ceiling.

And I like, he's good in front of the press. He said, Hey, you don't balance your, your checkbook at home or your business this way. Why can't we do it this way? Exactly. You know? And so, yeah, so he's got a backbone when he's talking about to the press, but we'll see what they do in the actual chamber.

Cause the Democrats know how to play the government shutdown game and the Republicans don't. And every representative is getting lobbied. All of them. Privately. Yeah. All calls at night behind the scenes. All these things.

Yeah. So which is just a reminder for us as believers, let's go back to first Timothy chapter two to pray for those in authority over us. They need our prayers on a number of different levels. Not the least of which would be to fight temptation because that's going on all the time. But, uh, thank the Lord Steve-O that you and I have our ultimate deposit in heaven. And ultimately whatever happens here doesn't touch that.

And praise the Lord for that. It's great seeing you. Thanks for coming in pal. Always great to have you LA capital advisors, la capital advisors.com with my good friend, Steve Lewis.
Whisper: medium.en / 2023-02-19 16:34:33 / 2023-02-19 16:53:03 / 19

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