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March 3, 2020 3:32 pm
Did you vote? It is, after all, Super Tuesday! Hear all about voting and the primaries on today's show! Plus, a special guest, Larry Holmquist, candidate for U.S. Senate. Additionally, hear some shocking news about the rapidly spreading coronavirus!
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Thank you and God Bless
Everyone who decides what is the mobile show were biblical Christianity meets the everyday issues of life in your home, at work, and even in politics. Steve is an ordinary man who believes in an extraordinary God it on a show, there's plenty of grace and lots of true no sacred 634 true 866-34-TRUTH or checking out online.com. Now here's your house. Mobile okay is obviously a big day today with the super Tuesday, including right here in the great state of North Carolina all go to my pics and tell you I think both were here North Carolina I would somewhat say is a violation of federal law. The Johnson act, which I'll get to the Johnson and I'll get to that later but I wanted to give one of the people that actually is on my list of running in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate that the big deal here North Carolina against I one of our sitting Senators Tom Tillis is my friend Larry Holmquist. So he's calling in today. Just do a little shot out. Sorry we couldn't get in here that sooner Larry but it's good to hear from you. How are you I'm fine. You I'm doing very well. I think you for asking. So let everybody know just a little bit about who you are and then we'll talk about this. This mountaineer climbing and try to take out a sitting US Sen. because that is no easy task.
All right will it felt good cream on five euros old. I am a lifelong Christian, a lifelong patriot and a lifelong conservative. In those three influences shaping everything that I am a person that shape how I think how I be how I act.
I have been married to my beautiful wife Cindy will be 35 years in June we lived in North Carolina since 1988 night. Neither of us were born in North Carolina, but we lived the majority of our lives here and we absolutely love it is very active in our church here in Greensboro and were also very active in the Piedmont community here in the in our area. So what this is. This is a big hill to climb. I teach Constitution to high school age homeschoolers I have for eight years and one of the things that we learn is that the vast majority of incumbents do very well. They have a machine in place their fundraising in place already you know and and I'm not a he, and cards on the table and not a huge Tom Tillis fan, but why did you decide to kinda take this on because this is a big deal. Well actually I decided about how to want their right decision because it was made with a lot of prayer there were other candidates that were going to run against John Philip and they dropped out of the lab and when they did.
My wife and I talked about this, we prayed about it and I said I am not going to let this man go without a fight in the primary and I have been fighting him with everything that I can in the reason for that. Steve I want to be too hard on Mr. Tillis but I'm drunk to say this is a conservative in the state of North Carolina. I'm tired of being ignored disappointed and betrayed by this man. I hate to say this but you never know where Tom Tillis is going to come down on any given issue. One day he supports the president the next day. He's working against them. One day he's supporting conservative causes the next day he's compliant quickly with Cory Booker. You probably remember back in the mall.
I have to get you there was talk about about Tillis and Booker, introducing a law on legislation to prevent the president from firing Robert Muller if he chose the court. The president worked with them within his rights absolutely has as head of the executive branch to do that.
But Tillis is talking to Cory Booker about that and Steve, first of all what conservative would do that you would even have those that look on a conversation with Cory Booker.
You know I like you I didn't send Tom Tillis to the U.S. Senate for him to go up there and play footsie with Cory Booker, everybody radical socialist Democrat from New Jersey. I didn't send him there that actually I sent him there to fight against Mr. Booker's party, which is trying to their best to destroy our country and so pick up the phone and called Tillis's office and gave him your phone and he backed away from that, but he and I you know, as he was doing that, he said to us in North Carolina. He said spare me your righteous indignation."
You can look that up.
Seek your righteous indignation. Well, I'm sorry Sen. Tillis but if you see if you do something that foolish you are worthy of our righteous nation and the by golly, and like you got some and then of course he remembers about a year ago when the president was trying to find the money to build the border wall. The issue to the national emergency declaration, Tillis opposed initially opposed to the point of writing an op-ed for the Washington Post and again what conservative would do that would fight against the president of the president's number one job is to secure our country to make you and your family safe.
Steve and and your listeners and all their families that president trumps number one job and he's trying to start a student to get that wall built in Tillis opposed him initially. Again, a lot of us picked up the phone and called him and he eventually changed his position immediately. You cannot call Sen. flip-flop for nothing yet. That's a bizarre thing about him is it is it seems like Sen. Tillis is always trying to read the tea leaves a little bit ahead of the game, and that's why you see them flip-flopping around what what if you run into Larry as you talk to people around the state and been in and been running in this primary what what kind of back what kind of a input. Are you getting from fellow North Carolinians well that just about every conservative is is really disappointed with Sen. Tillis and I hate to say this and Steve, but many to the point where they're saying they will not vote for the man if he is on the ballot in November. I hate to say that yes God saw plenty of people that I have talked to their tired of holding their nose in voting for the lesser of two evils and I am afraid that if Sen. Tillis is on the ballot in November. That seat is at risk is greatly at risk.
Now you find the nominee in November, which I expect to be Steve anybody can firstname.lastname@example.org and a strong conservative will look at my website and read my platform.
They will find nothing there that they will object to and a lot that they will agree or applaud my mind I'm a mainstream consistent strong conservative and that is going to be the biggest difference between Tom Tillis and me the I will be the consistent conservative that Tom Tillis is not when I'm serving the people of North Carolina in the United States Senate, they will actually know in advance you're gonna know in advance the how I'm go to vote on every issue because it will always be the most conservative position.
Whether it healthcare, the economy, education Second Amendment national defense. I will always vote in the most conservative manner. You're never have to worry about all you know what Hulk was going to do a him with Tillis with Tillis. We never know we never know how the guys gonna come down on a given issue. You're not good have that worry or concern with me and and and that's one of the reasons that you made my list today Larry and I appreciate that about you.
Definitely as as well as a if I can work with the solid conservative/that's great but I'm solid conservative flesh and the Holy Spirit, and I didn't really excited about that.
I'll overtime your website and we gonna let you go is Larry or Abelard Larry for NC.com.
There's only a couple of hours left is voting.
That's right folks. Please if you haven't voted get to the polls and I would welcome your support. Larry hope U.S. Senate Larry God bless you will talk to you later friends will be right back okay is me about me is like this is really funny part of me is like this is really set but this is it is what it is.
It is what's out there for Thursday and I want to be self evident by you know you know the thing okay okay so that's Joe Biden on the last 24 hours talking about super third meeting Tuesday super Tuesday and then we hold these truths to be self evident that now that's that's the second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence and at the beginning and is on the national stage wants to be our president and and parties like this just kinda sad because he's obviously old enough that he lost some of his faculties okay just is not up to snuff is not ready for all this. That's why he had some to gaze and gas over the years but now it's particularly bad and for me is particularly sad. My dad was 91 when he passed away in mysharp but you know you start slipping here and there. Remembering things and stuff and and to hear that these kind of mistakes and through all, is the national stage pressure not no not this guy's been in the game for a long time and so with that said, just as did woman to start Thursday and I want to thank you all way already. 33 711 all you know you know the thing okay so you know that this is Duchess were okay. It is what it is not getting keep that just what's going on in the skin is that we'll the street to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence, so we've got today super Tuesday all over the country get Alabama American Samoa Arkansas California Colorado Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia big stakes out there. There is a lot going on. This is a very very big day and that's where paying attention to it. There's 14 states, 1347 pledged delegates on the line. That's 34% of the total available for the whole nation which is just under 4000. California alone today. This morning, 15 and but California. We may not know who gets what, because they're allowed to count California until April 3. So you've got most states with the Democrat party and this is in a constitutional issue. Both parties can do whatever they want and how they run their primary elections so what's happening there is you have to have a minimum threshold of 15%.
You have to get 15%. Otherwise you get no delegates so when you start looking around the country at that need to start doing the math and of course surveys doing the math and all this stuff and I ran one really long article by 538 and they're looking at the math are coming up with today. Biden will pick up 484 Bloomberg to pick up 222 Sanders, 463 and Warren 162 and is been a big shift for Biden because he had such a blowout victory in South Carolina. And this is going to get a lot crazier before it gets done and you've got a chance here that were to be walking into a brokered convention in July in Milwaukee and in several of Bernie's supporters out right of said hey if we don't get our way working ago not sound like violence, not so so this is just crazy what's going on out there, but you have to watch today and listen and pay attention in the South you to see Biden do well in the North or Tennessee Bernie do well and in Bloomberg who spent north of 1/2 $1 billion now. Just about all his money he spent on super Tuesday today around the state around these 14 states, so it's just crazy what's going on right now, which is that the pay attention to it and see what's happening.
I got some more. Want to talk about on that. But before we do less or what's going on in Nashville. If you hadn't heard this is really horrendous them down south close to downtown Nashville last night got hit by an enormous tornado.
Right now there are 22 people dead, all kinds of building the devastation is massive. It's terrible and it was at night which makes it even worse. It's heartbreaking said Gov. Bill Lee. We've had a loss of life all across the state. Last night was a reminder of how fragile life is. That's what the national mayor said at a news conference this morning so that that's just really put things into perspective is an important presidential race. The presidents primary got an democratic socialist/communist is positioning himself possibly to be the Democrat nominee to run for president United States.
Those are all big deals there matters of life and death on the issue of abortion. There matters of life and death in the history the country itself and I don't want to use too much hyperbole there but but actual lives lost in the middle of the night when nobody expected it brings an eternal perspective.
So let's just remember, as we deal with politics. All these things are important. Just remember that none of them are as important as the soul of man or woman or boy or girl young child and unborn baby and 95-year-old World War II veteran. None of her as important as the souls of those individuals so let's make sure and that in the midst of all this that we keep our gospel perspective. Okay, I struggle with that sometimes in the start to get that you do as well so I always say this every two years and I get on the air because I offer my personal pics here in the great state of North Carolina.
These are all statewide races that I offer up and I do that knowing there's this thing out there called the Johnson amendment so the Johnson minutes. A provision in the US tax code's been around since 1954, prohibits all 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations from endorsing or opposing political candidates so this radio ministry, the Steve Noble show which is underneath the banner of called action today, which is how we incorporated as a 501(c)(3) within a 501(c)(3) since to 2008 case same tax structure is a church in the Johnson amendment is been used since 1954 to scare clergy into saying nothing about politicians you want to talk about pro-life the issue fine. You want to talk about racial reconciliation and civil rights and find you can talk about that from the pulpit but don't you dare mention candidate. Don't you dare do that. That was the whole point of that is to shut up the pulpit and you can imagine. Why Democrat would want to shut the pulpit right.
Unfortunately, for all these years as a whole lot. This is this is just in: intuition, call it personal experience, I'm sure.
I'm confident that there are a whole lot of pastors in America that are taken advantage of the Johnson amendment to stay out of vote for this person.
Don't vote for that person. This person is more in line with biblical values.
This person is way out of line with biblical values because they're afraid to take the heat from the congregation or people that are saying he should mix politics with religion. You should get in there that's no place there.
That's ridiculous. Why because politicians the laws they pass the way they act in office affects all 340 million of your neighbors and to not care about that is to not care about your neighbor. That's a violation of neighbor love which the violation of God locate first two big commands when they try to trick Jesus on that love the Lord your God with our heart, soul, mind and strength. Love your neighbor as yourself. Well, not giving a rip about politicians and what happens in elected office which affects millions and millions of millions of people around the country is bad neighbor love that neighbor love is sinful K is a lot of ways you can syndicate your neighbor. This is one of the Johnson and says that but for years. What since 2008 Evan 2008. Our friends at the alliance defending freedom have done pulpit freedom Sunday in a pulpit freedom Sunday. They have literally several thousand pastors over the last 12 years that have taken have recorded their sermons comparing candidate with candidate be based on the biblical standards in Canada hey Van lines of more than standing candidate B therefore candidate is a better choice when it comes to standards and they literally mail them to the IRS and the IRS has done nothing will be right back to Steve Noble to Steve Noble, show grace be with you a big day for Tuesday 14 states around the country and a lot of delegates on the line were not when I can know what the end in game today but working to be a lot closer to it is can be fascinating to watch what happens with Bloomberg who spent north by half of billion dollars on mostly on super Tuesday, mostly on today so this can be fascinating.
He just wants to get enough so that he can go into the into the convention in July in Milwaukee and they've got the Democrat party has a problem which is why you got to Hillary Clinton came out and in hammering away at the Bernie once again and then call Bashar and put a judge just backed out of the race. In the last 48 hours. They both turned around and endorsed by Denon at Biden at the Texas event last night when they came out with that also brought bade Biddle O'Rourke out you not of that out of the graveyard there and potatoes like okay sure yeah I'm behind Joe Biden and all that stuff going on. What about Obama. What about Clint that'll tell you how desperate they are fingered Obama to come out and get Clint to come out and endorsed Joe Biden that'll show you house afraid they are how nervous they are about Bernie Sanders and they should be. So that's gonna be fascinating. I'll get my picture North Carolina second to an end.
By the way, those are all on Facebook from my personal Facebook page that on the radio Facebook page but when I ask Evan is my intern. My production assistance been with me for a while. But today was a big day for you was because because is my first time voting and get this, you barely getting it under the wire you absolutely because you might my birthday is November 2. So be 18 on November 2 which is a Monday, the first Monday before the date for the election so so in case you didn't know this if you turn 18 between the primary and before the general election.
You can vote in the primary, but you gotta turn 18 before the general election than you can get in and you can vote and be a part of that so so as you thought about this previously or this this kind of II didn't realize that I could actually vote until it was brought to my attention so I went out today and voted got to the whole process of of that to got to experience that on and I think it's important for young people to get out and vote and represent their beliefs on, especially since people in office or an older generation should they should look at what values they hold and want to see implemented and yet because all the stuff's gonna fall in your letter you absolutely saw enough on some not so how did it feel just just to be able to go in there and actually vote, go to the process. It felt I was nervous I didn't realize that I was gonna be that nervous, but it was was kinda nerve-racking but one son once I got to the ballot.
It felt very much like a test yeah because it was the Scantron like you see in high school. It's just I was like I feel like I'm taking just like an IT test yeah Evan sexy babysitter fell like a test and I said it it said yeah and I was.
It is a test. I think that I think that's awesome and deep. Do you know many people your age that can vote that are voting not really know most most people my age would be like yeah I just, and yet who cares that yes, it matter who cares. I'm just, you know that one. One less person voting, but I think it's important for everyone to vote in and get out there and I think it's I think we have a civic duty to do it and whether you turn election on your boat are not really isn't the point. What point is the principle is that it's an incredible privilege yeah absolutely on the boat as a Christian to want to engage make a difference in the public realm through voting is like your talent.
So what are you doing with the talent that you been given when I talk about playing guitar in this case the guy that buried his talent didn't do anything with my one America. I like to think your vote and your opportunity to vote is like a town yeah absolutely you should invest yeah that's awesome well congratulations yes any router you have is your welcome and thanks for asking and answering my questions and your voice sounds great on the radio. Thank you Michael. That's 1111 and now that's inspiring to hear that in an gratifying and so that's really cool and excited about that. So I write so here North Carolina I just so I can follow through and some people would say I'm violated the Johnson amendment, which is a federal law does Steve Noble show.com that's a website you want to do that go to the Steve Noble show.com find me on Facebook and you can tell the IRS began again because like our friends alliance defending freedom and I would have some of the greatest Christian representation in America were all hoping one day that the IRS steps on this but it's not the lots. The specter of the lots like the shadow so who's afraid of their shadow well. Only a fool. So that's why every two years were always pushing this one thing that I really I really am thankful for alliance defending freedom being out there on the front front end that tipped that spear to out to challenge the IRS because that that's that this thing goes to the Supreme Court. It will fall then that would be a shame they would when pastors actually have the opportunity to endorse candidates and tell you they think you should vote for based on biblical values would they actually do it with Nepean interesting test. So here's how I voted today, not representing any of the stations I'm on there and they have nothing to do with this Steve Noble US citizen on my shell which happens to be a 501(c)(3) so yeah I have this at the Republican ticket here North Carolina yes I voted for Donald Trump and Larry Holmquist for the Senate. I voted for Dan force in the governor I voted for Mark Robinson and Lieut. Gov. I voted for Sam Hayes as Atty. Gen. Tim Hogan Meyer for auditor Mike Causey for Commissioner insurance Pearl Burris Floyd for Commissioner of labor. My buddy EC Sykes for Secretary of State. Great guy. Click on the guy Superintendent of Public instruction Craig Horne and two other friends, both of been on the show and and also brothers in Christ, but will be great for the state Fred Voncannon in House District 35 which is here in the Triangle area and guiltily gone, who's in House District 36 of you if you want some help. If you want my list.
Take it or leave it, but it's there on my Facebook pages. Okay so you go grab it printed out.
That's my ode to my Chicago background because I know for a fact that I vote no. A few hundred times every two years because I earn that trust in the Triangle area as being a net cook conservative Christian activist since 2004, and I wish we everybody would do their homework, Inc. and be able to's to to figure it out and spend time on it, but not everybody can't. And even sometimes when I'm unsure all asked some very wise wiser usually older conservative Christians that that are very knowledgeable about politics and I'll get their input on the various candidates and sometimes that slays me one way or the other, but I strongly believe as a Christian you have a pop, you have an obligation to vote to try to love your neighbor well by trying to impact the public realm and that's why think I think it's and I don't know a lot of pastors that would go this far with me. But I think it's actually a sin to not vote in this context in this country to sit on the sidelines and do nothing. Again, I think, is a violation of neighbor love so there you go there's that going to turn me in.
This is from 538 some really good information here about what's going on today lot. This is fascinating. Okay fine is now twice as likely as Sanders to win a plurality of pledged delegates according to the primary model which gives them a 65% chance of doing so, compared with 34% chance of Sanders. This represents the culmination of a trend that's been underway in a model for about a week. This is turning quickly. Okay, this is why 6 foot six months ago and people are coming out to run away from Biden vulnerable all that stuff you just okay whatever. Go away. These don't even pay attention to. So this is all in motion. Item not plunking down a bunch of money or betting on this stuff. To be clear, however, in this article there's still a lot of uncertainty we been talking about delegate pluralities which obscures the fact that the most likely outcome in the model is still that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates, which is moving us down the road to a brokered convention which means none of the candidates get a majority of the delegates so you go into the you going to the convention.
This would be true in the Republican side as well as the Democrats going to the convention in July, Milwaukee in this case and now they have start voting in the first round of voting, the superdelegates can come in and they can they can sway it and then now it's just horsetrading. We really want and they could bring somebody in from the outside. They could say you know what, let's go back to our bench. Hey Hillary, they could go after Michelle Obama they could. Whatever they pull Amanda and say okay were not getting a consent when I can get to majority or the other people. So let's get somebody in from the outside. Try to agree on that. That could happen, given everything that's going on in this country right now.
It wouldn't shock me still in the overnight pulling the numbers for Bloomberg and to a slightly lesser extent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren held up better than you might've expected so Bloomberg is a spoiler and their again he spent north of $500 million half $1 billion in delegate terms.
Biden is projected to finish about three and 75 delegates have Sanders and the average simulation.
This just today, Bloomberg is projected to finish with an average of 555 delegates and worn 283 delegates so super Tuesday totals based on 538.com Biden to get 484 Bloomberg skinning at 222 Sanders getting a foreign 63 and a Warren will still get 162 which pushes things towards a brokered convention which will see what happens now. The scary thing about that do little research on the Democratic national convention in Chicago in 1968, because that got violent. I have no interest in seeing that whatsoever. What this country is divided as it is in the fact that you've got a good number of P people.
Millions of people around this country, especially younger people getting on the bandwagon with Bernie Sanders saying hey, this Democratic socialism thing me and let's give it a shot. I get my student debt forgiven. That's awesome. I get to goodies from the government that's awesome I get free healthcare. That's awesome. Stick it to the rich people. That's awesome. It's like what the French Revolution what's going on here. Maybe that's alarm that's alarm policy with the Democrat party.
Doesn't that this is Steve Noble and the seasonable show little bit more about that than the coronavirus from combat in. I just sit down summer okay the coronavirus. This is one of those things. Just like the market okay so like today. Last time I looked. The Dow was down 600 points even though the Fed lowered rates today by 50 base with the one from 1.75 to 1.25 out of nowhere. They did that so the big deal you think, well, that's rock 'n' roll minute and they did that to try to help the market. So what are the market say that dissension with the market set as the market closed down 785 points today down 785 yesterday. It was up the time and now today down 785. Even though the feds cut the rates by half percentage point from 1.75, 1.25 okay the Dow craters 10 year treasury yield, and this is just kind of this craziness that we deal with a fall below 1% for the first time ever 10 year treasury yield falls below 1% for the first time ever. That's never happened before, is an all-time low .927%, and then factoring all this because coronavirus if you don't get sick of it's nothing serious healthwise. It certainly serious financial now you got like Jim Cramer, while guy and I none CNBC right pretty expense drastic rate cut will stoke investor fear over coronavirus Tuesday morning, the Fed announced a half-point rate cut with investors worried about the impact of coronavirus, but in the eyes of one prominent market observer.
The drastic measure intended to call Wall Street may actually stoke fear appearing Tuesday morning and CNBC analyst Jim Cramer said that the Fed chair Jay Pyles powers Tacoma market are limited and that ultimately, the issue comes down to whether people are able to go about their business as normal despite concerns over the virus.
It's terrific. Jay is on board. Cramer said he can do everything he can.
But in the end. Why go out. Cramer went on to say that he previously been optimistic despite the recent Dow freefall.
The feds move is caused him to adopt a more cautious posture quote. It makes me feel well. The weakness must be more than I thought. Cramer set and I've been trying to be bullish, but I can't yet it I'm now nervous. I'm more nervous than I was before. So there's that stuff going on out there circling around the coronavirus okay kinda nutty so there's all kinds of articles on the coronavirus. I found this one which again I think that the president's team with the CDC's National Institute of health.
There the information and putting out the press conferences they're having is calm. It's logical, it's just fax and they're not projecting too much, but I thought there were some interesting things in this particular article. This was a medium.com by Adam rent that work were thought-provoking again not fear provoking thought-provoking and cynical.
Okay, I can see some ancillary issues that come up as a result, the coronavirus that may not be deadly dip won't be deadly to most people because it's more for older people and people that have compromised health are ready but that's not the biggest issue. It is individually but the overall effect so it starts with these quotes is just the flu mortality rates only 2%. Only 3000 people died so far the only people dying of the older people every sick if young and healthy. What's there worry about right. It turns out an awful lot.
Let me explain. This is the article again. I'm not that freaking out here.
We don't have a spirit of fear but I think there's some things here that are worthy of consideration as we move down this road, which is largely unknown. What's going on okay let's look at the virus. It's called SARS as POV to the illness called COBIT 19 virus. This is the information we have so far based on multiple sources. Incubation. 2 to 14 days transmission methods respiratory droplets coughing, sneezing, fomite switch is infected close furniture she tear skin vehicles tools I listen to. This is important so the flu virus can exist for for five hours, okay outside the host. The virus this one COBIT 19 coronavirus may persist on surfaces for up to nine days, and on some surfaces up to 27 days.
So now it's out there a lot longer okay then there's the Arnott which is for every one person that gets it. Who else is going to get it how much of a contagion.
Is it so the Arnott of flu is 1.28 the Arnott of SARS or coronavirus is somewhere between 1.4 and 3.8 but that's questionable symptoms fever, cough, shortness of breath, 20% of patients require hospital treatments in 20 to 32 2% of patients hospitalized require intensive care for respiratory support. Okay, so that's important. As you go. Okay, there's that many people that require hospital treatment and if it's highly contagious and can hang around on a doorknob for nine days. That means you have a whole lot of people that will get it. Just like we have the flu but there's going to be because that number so big knows a lot of people that need to go the hospital for little bit and you have enough hospital beds and staff take care of it in a secondary and and third level concerns okay. The death rate of the virus is highly infectious, potentially nearly twice as infectious as the flu. It might be far higher there is any way near enough data yet on the infected people could spread the disease for up to two weeks before showing symptoms. That's a concern. Some people don't show any symptoms at all and could feel it could infect an enormous number of people. As of this morning. There are 80,000 reported cases in China 3000 South Korean a thousand Italy and most Western countries. The numbers much smaller 60 US 23.
In the UK, and in this article is the 29th okay so it's already three days old so the numbers are increasing in a pretty rapidly so you got the first thing to note in is that Korea and Italy have been testing much more widely than other countries.
Up until recently most countries have only been testing people that have visited China so we not accurate information here. The second thing to note is that confirm cases is not the total number of cases in that country confirm cases that the lowest possible number of cases in the country.
It's the lower bound of an estimate that's only what's been confirm what all the other information single and people aren't even going to show symptoms for up to two weeks. He can't confirm and then soar lagging behind reality okay. In terms of the numbers.
The third thing to note is that while the number is relatively small.
Right now cases outside of China are doubling roughly every five days.
Okay, so it's infectious, but that's not a problem.
It's just like the flu right so here's the comparison to the flu each year. The flu infects between 2 to 11% of the population. The infectiousness of a disease as measured by its Arnott value as a measure of how many people catch a disease from one infected person.
The Arnott value of the flu is 1.28 the Arnott value COBIT 19 is assumed to be between 1.4 and 3.8. However dark Mark Dr. Mark La Follette, research leader at the only Institute the world dedicated exclusively to research and respiratory disease transmission wrote an article this morning. This is three days ago claiming that the Arnott is being severely underestimated in real value could be between 4.77 night got up highly aggressive spread rate okay okay okay so might be more infectious than the flu that's fine because the morality rate is just 2% right, right.
Let's it should assume the Chinese date is correct this from this article, the formula China is using his current Dell told just a bite of a current confirm cases when the widely circulated mortality rate was calculated 97% of the country's total deaths were in the Hugh Bay province Hubei province Hungary mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
That was the worst mortality rate in the Hubei province is 3.1%. Other provinces was just .16% mortality rate nationwide. In China, was 2.1%.
When asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the Chinese official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that that there there were only hundred and 10 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals or most of the cases were sent and remember, that's why they built the hospital a thousand bed hospital. I think in like a week now that's China communist China that can command industry to do whatever he wants. Can we do that anywhere else so if you're young and healthy, you're probably going to fight the virus off just fine. This article says 80% of the cases are mild and upper hospitals hold out the mortality rate should be the same as the hospitals outside of Hubei manageable .16% if you're not young and healthy.
You might want to be more careful.
The death rate is far higher in older cohorts.
It's at least 14.8% in the over 80 group. Why does that matter.
I listen this is important. The UK is 2.8 million people over the age of 85 USS 12.6 million people over the age of 80, Trump told people not to worry because 60,000 people a year die. The flu is just 25% of the US over 80s cohorts get infected. Given current mortality rates. That's 466,200 deaths in that age group hello now can the healthcare system handle that to good question. So air stores in the article the problem.
The danger doesn't come from the virus. It comes from our underprepared fragile healthcare systems.
Recent paper suggested 80% of all cases are mild, but 20% of those infected required hospitalization, and 14% of those hospitalized required intensive respiratory treatment. Okay, so do we have the capacity to guess the number of people that have contracted the flu this year. The new hospitalization in the US .9% a see how the math is troubling. So when worrying about earthquakes. We think first of how many people die from collapsing buildings and falling rubble. We think many people die due to destroyed hospitals how many will die because medicine can no longer be delivered and damaged roads in our dealing with secondary and third level problems. Okay, not just the mortality rate of the virus.
We notice the virus becomes widespread, they can handle it. We think the virus might be much more infectious than the flu, but let's assume that only 8% of the UK. In this instance. Their population gets infected the same as a severe flu season UK population is 67 million people. That's 5.4 million people infected current predictions are 80% of them be mild if I but if 20% of those people require hospitalization for 3 to 6 weeks. That's 1 million people do not many beds they have in the national healthcare system in Great Britain.
You know, of course, you don't hundred and 40,000.
So the numbers out there are the problem with how many people can get it. So what do we do pray for our elected effete officials both here and around the world.
Pray that the warm weather coming up in the spring will get rid of this thing be prayerful, be watchful, educated on the washer hand stop. So let's not be ignorant. Let's not just go think new no. Keep reading, keep educating yourself keep paying attention to what's going on with super Tuesday will talk about all that tomorrow. This is Steve Noble and the Steve Noble she'll remember we haven't been given a spirit of fear of love power and a sound mind, God willing. I talked again real soon. Like my dad always used to say ever for