Who Is Really Up In the 2024 Polls?

Hey, everybody. Today on The Charlie Kirk Show, Rich Barris from Big Data Poll. We talk about who has the advantage right now, Trump or Biden? The answer might surprise you.

Who should Trump choose as vice president as we go through a rapid fire 2024 conversation? You're going to love it. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. That's freedom at charliekirk.com. Subscribe to our podcast, open up your podcast app and type in charliekirkshow and get involved with Turning Point USA at tpusa.com.

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Go to noblegoldinvestments.com. Joining us now is Rich Behrs from Big Data Poll. Rich, lots to talk about. Let's cue it up with Cut 88. Quinnipiac has Biden up on Trump. Six points, 50 to 44. This poll does have Haley doing better against Biden than Trump. She has got him, according to Quinnipiac, by five 47 to 42 nationally. And we may also have an answer to the question, who do third party candidates hurt? Ultimately, according to this poll, they hurt Trump because both Biden and Trump lose support when pulled against the major third parties. But Biden still wins. Rich, what's going on here?

Let me, first of all, thanks for having me, Charlie. Let me preface this with, like, the Fox News has the worst political analysts ever. The margin shrunk when you added the third parties. And I'm not even saying I agree with the analysis of what the poll said. But listen, folks, you know, aggregates are better for a reason. There have been, you know, some polls, obviously, they're not all created equal. Quinnipiac, they did all right in the midterms.

They've had a rough go. And presidential elections are a lot different to poll than midterms. You're talking about a lot more people.

And that's sometimes a little bit tricky. There's some things in that poll, Charlie, that jumped right out at me, you know, the white vote is ridiculous and unbelievable. The participation among Republicans, and we don't wait for party ID, but we make sure all our other demographics, when we do rake weight, are representative.

And that gives us the party identification. But in that particular poll, there are fewer Republicans who voted in 08, Charlie. I mean, there's a lot, honestly, there's a lot wrong with that poll. And then obviously, when you add those third party candidates, it tightened the margin.

So Fox couldn't wait to jump on this. Aggregates, there's always going to, could be an outlier, could not be, but it is right now in the aggregate. And, you know, the forces of Haley and Murdoch are going to be dying to to jump on a poll that's an outlier at this point. So so, you know, Rich, I want to just I'm the I'm the caution guy because I look to this poll here, Bloomberg Morning Consult, Trump up three in Arizona, five in Michigan, 10 in North Carolina, weird stuff there, five in Wisconsin, three in Pennsylvania, eight in Nevada, eight in Georgia. I don't believe it.

I'll be honest, Rick. Yeah, I don't believe it. I think that if Trump were to be up, it'd be one or two points. I don't think we've seen the deployment of all of Biden's money.

What what is the current forget all this other nonsense? What is the rich bearish big data poll state of the race? It's going to be a close election. Trump is a favor is favored right now. I don't think anybody can seriously argue he's not a slight favorite. However, you and I know this is the modern world is modern American elections.

They will be close. And the impact of third party candidates. You and I've talked a lot about this over the last what, six, eight months. And I do not think that it's defined clearly by a national poll. When we get into states like Pennsylvania, JFK clearly hurts Donald Trump and multiple polls we've conducted there now.

In other states, it looks like it may help them a little bit, but it is not at all decided. Listen, the bottom line is looking how much Joe Biden raised last quarter, Charlie, he raised $100 million. Republicans in this pointless primary, I'm sorry, it's just reality and I deal with strategy, have spent more than one third now almost. And by the time it's done, it'll be more than this of Mitt Romney's entire budget against Barack Obama in 2012.

Not the primary budget, not just general election budget, everything. And Joe Biden is raising money now hand over fist, and they will kick this vote gathering into high gear. They're not going to just, you know, let it go. They have a template, they know how to chase votes. They're going to chase them, Charlie.

They're going to. Yeah. So let's talk about the third party stuff. Just does Trump need to start to go negative on RFK? Does he need to kind of run a two part race realizing he has two types of opponents? Do you think and where currently with the actual data you trust is a majority of what RFK is pulling from?

Yeah, I would say wait still for two reasons. Well, one reason particularly. We don't know what states fully yet he's going to be on the ballot. That's why he's now running to the libertarian party trying to take that away from Lars Mapstead so he could use their infrastructure. We'll see how that goes because I think the line of attack is different if he does end up on the libertarian ballot ticket.

Charlie, I think that you're talking about a different line of attack. But here's why I've been on the side of RFK hurts Trump more than helps him for a while now, even though our national polling suggested it might help Trump in the popular vote a little bit. The bottom line is where this election will be won in the states where it matters. They are disproportionately non-college white working class. They have an outside say in the electorate.

This educated Valium wine drinking mom is not coming back. It doesn't matter if Trump's the nominee or Nikki Haley's the nominee. The people who are voting for Nikki in the primary now will vote for Joe Biden in the general election. We know this. We've interviewed thousands of them at this point. The votes that RFK is getting are coming from lower propensity non-college voters. Bottom line, that's a problem for Donald Trump.

That's it. I know that it's gone back and forth here, man. But if you add West and Stein and everybody else to the ballot, then it's a bit of a different story. But right now, you may not be able to do that because RFK may take Lars Mapstead off of that equation.

So who is the favorite for libertarians? People don't know what I'm talking about. But, you know, with just RFK, it hurts Trump. It hurts Trump.

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That is 888-596-0155 or visit StrongCell.com forward slash Charlie. So, so, Rich, just let's pretend all the polls were put aside. And if you were just looking analytically at which side has a better infrastructure, money, the boring stuff, cash on hands, who has the advantage and what does Trump need to do to improve his standing? Democrats have the advantage hands down.

They do. They have the House is raising money hand over fist. The Republican Party has wasted their time with the RNC.

I'm sorry. Democrats do not centralize things the way that Republicans in the modern era have decided to centralize. They need to stop spending money on the primary.

I'm sorry, but that's number one. I'm not saying he can do that right now. But if Republicans were smart, they would do that. They are way behind. Charlie, there are two groups of voters that they need to target. There's obviously the lower propensity or what we call unlikely voter, which is, again, in this latest round of polls, you can see that Trump is, even in the Minnesota poll that just came out from SurveyUSA, it's close. Biden is doing terrible in that state.

He should be winning it easily. Trump is only that close because the unlikely voter is double digits for Trump. He's got to get them out. And there are many ways that that can be done, but all of which cost money. And then, of course, there's a wealth of voters who are not registered.

Trump does even better in the adult samples. We've talked about these different groups before. There are different ways to target them. You have people like Scott Pressler out there going to gun shows.

That's certainly the way to do it. But there's a huge disparity. There's a huge gap between Republicans and their infrastructure, their ability to get people out, and what Democrats have.

It's massive. We could spend an entire show talking about this. Not to mention, what Nikki Haley is doing right now is going to wind up costing the party millions and millions of dollars. The data is going to be dirty.

That's going to cost a fortune to clean up. Why is that? I mean, I've talked about this a little bit. But this effort to get Democrats and behavioral Democrats who are independents to go vote for in a primary for data guys like us is going to throw a signal. It's going to add an attribute to a voter's record that, oh, that's a Republican primary voter. So go out and try to get them in the general election. And you're going to have walkers with doors slammed in their face.

You're going to have worthless mailers sent out, digital targeting that's completely useless. There's a massive problem right now with the way Republicans are moving forward. And they don't have time, you know, to clean this up really soon.

They got to get it together like yesterday. So can you just, and you know where my opinion is on this, but I mean, how serious is this RNC problem, Rich? The worst fundraising total since 1993, inflation adjusted. That's a 30-year low. What's going on here?

It's bad. This is, again, because Republicans, too, have for the most part in the modern era, especially post Priebus. But they always were like this. They chose to somewhat centralize their party infrastructure. And the Democrats, again, they don't do that. So you have the DCCC doing their thing. You have third party groups doing their thing. The DNC is basically has been broke for a while. They just don't care because they don't operate that much. Because Republicans, all the Rolodexes, Charlie, all the campaign consultants, I mean, the vultures, you know, look at how much they spent on consultants. Did you see that report the other day?

I did. It's outrageous. Or flowers.

Charlie. Seventy thousand on flowers. Unbelievable. They spent millions of dollars to have a seat at the table while there were certain A.I.

tools being developed. I got that seat for free just because they wanted input. I mean, it's just incredible how the Republican Party does this stuff.

It is really bad. And this is what I worry about. You know, come November, you know, the Wednesday after the election, Trump wins. Let's say this scenario plays out. Turnout is big. You know, they're going to want to take credit for that, Charlie, like they pulled themselves out of the doldrum or something at the last minute.

Meanwhile, you know, and I know that it would have been a work of people that are not even in front of the camera that would do it. And plus, Trump is a turnout machine. But Trump is got one more election under his belt. Charlie, when he's gone, all of these opportunities to get all of this infrastructure and these voters that we are talking about will be gone. So they have to turn. They have to right this ship quick.

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Click on the preborn banner. So, Rich, talk about, yeah, the turnout machine that Trump is. Can it forgive? Basically, that's basically if the RNC is like kaput. Can art can Trump make up for that? Well, we saw him do it in 2016 and we're watching these primaries even with low turnout in Iowa, Charlie. He's still got enormous number of votes himself. He broke records. And then in New Hampshire, with $37 million spent trying to get Democrats to cross over, any normal person would have been beaten, probably, or very, they would have tightened it, you know, to a lot closer than it was. But again, he not only beat his own record, beat John McCain's record, then he beat Bernie's record, 12% of the entire population of New Hampshire, not voter, the entire population of New Hampshire, he voted for Donald Trump in the primary, which is crazy.

More than 12. But, you know, this is, again, this is not 2016. So it's like, do you want to leave that up to chance?

He's going to drive out a massive number of people. But when we study unlikely voters, those who tell us, you know what, I'm just I'm done with the process. Only Donald Trump is cited when we ask them who could motivate you to go out to vote. But there's still only about it's a little less than 40% that look to be really pushable with, you know, on their own, that it can that it can happen organically.

The rest, they need to be nudged hard. So again, why would you leave that up to chance, Charlie? You know, I mean, yeah, I guess it's a coin flip. But why?

Why would you do it? And imagine, Rich machine plus Trump, if there was a machinery plus the Trump get out the vote? I mean, what would that what would that mean? Rich, you would have an Obama style wave, wouldn't you? It would and forget about worrying about, you know, what happened last time, Charlie, we'd be I was talking to somebody about this at Decision Desk actually recently. This would be like an early night, you know, relatively early night.

We could all probably pack it in at like 1130 because we know how many votes are potentially left out and whether or not anyone would be able to win that much to make up the ground because of course, there will be delays as usual, but that wouldn't matter. You know, everyone feels everyone pretends or people have this like phony idea. Democrats can just keep like adding infinitely. And that's, you know, how they pull these things off. That's not true. It's that you're the more you get out there to vote, the less they have to work with. If I'm saying that, you know, I know it's a bit of code, but if I'm saying that, accurately enough for people to understand, to understand, but Charlie, this would be a route, Charlie, if they could get these people out.

And I'm not alone in this. Look at premise. Everybody's backed us up with this Suffolk University. This would be over in hours last time Trump is running for president. Republicans are gonna be like, Where did all of our voters go if you don't fix the machinery? All right, Rich, vice presidential candidates.

Typically, the rule is that V.P. candidates don't do much. What who on the roster does something? Who could be the negative? I would put Nikki Haley. But if you rich bear us with everything you have at your disposal, all the numbers, all the experience, all the wisdom, all the strategy, who should Donald Trump pick? I don't believe in, you know, these arguments, you know, regional compensation, you're from the Northeast, so pick somebody from the Midwest.

I just I don't buy that stuff. I think that you have to find somebody who fits the right moment, like you have each candidate has a presidential justification. They need that to win the presidency and you need somebody that compensates that. But with all that being said, Trump's decision is much harder this year, Charlie, because he needs like an insurance policy. He picked somebody like Nikki Haley, no matter what argument you make, that it'll help you electorally. And I'm not sure it would, but no matter what argument you make goes out the window anyway, because if the establishment didn't wage a coup to remove him and install her within three months, I'd be shocked. And if that failed, then I would worry far more about something else happening. But rest assured, they would make sure Nikki Haley is the president one way, shape or form. So that with that in mind, it's tough, I think, in the election we're in, and the way people are feeling, he's got to throw a bomb. And by a bomb, I mean, somebody like Vivek or a Tucker, I love Ron Johnson, I do. But he needs a he needs a bomb, Charlie, and he needs somebody who the administrative state is going to fear just as much as him, if not more so.

And there are a lot of great names in there. So I don't mean to leave anybody out, but it's a tough call this year. The only downside to Ron Johnson is you potentially lose a Senate seat, which again, if you if you look at the sad story of Jeff Sessions, that's not a good, that's not a good precedent. Scott Walker, if he would be willing to do it, you know, if you could approach Scott Walker and say, hey, Scott, would you would you do it?

You know, but even then, you'd have to, yeah, yeah, even then you'd have to wait, as you know, so it's risky. But I really think that voters, especially Republicans right now, Charlie, they're voting on the border. They're voting, of course, on the economy. And then with this all underlying tone that the administrative state is dangerous, we're in a lot of trouble. Even Republicans cite threats to democracy now, but it just means something different to them than when you ask a liberal and they say it. And I think this underlying tone that's beneath the surface gives him this unique ability to pick somebody that is just.

Uncharacter, you know, how could it unconventional, let me put it that way. Last question, Rich, and this is The New York Times, CNN, they have this story every couple days, but tell me the truth of the matter. If Donald Trump is convicted before Election Day, how does that play in? Yeah, first of all, people have that baked in their heads when it's like baked in the cake and it's in their heads when you're asking them those questions. When a pollster then delivers that question specifically, depending on the wording they use, it's not an accurate gauge. They know what answer is the right answer, Charlie, that they know you as a pollster that you want them to give. I really don't think that that will have the impact that some people argue. They're praying that that's the case and that's why they're rushing for it, because I know a lot of Democrats who think that's their Hail Mary, that's their only way that they're going to hold on this year. But when it comes down to it, presidential elections, most of the time, this time, there'll be third parties, but it won't be that much different.

There'll be A.B. tests and people will have to decide whether or not they're going to pick the guy who is prosecuting his opponent who also served this president. When he did, their lives were better or vice versa. So I really do think that we're in that kind of a political environment, Charlie. If you were to have convict Joe Biden of something, 20% of Democrats still probably are not going to vote for the Republican even if you convicted Joe Biden. And by the way, those questions don't capture the full scope of what voters are dealing with. So it won't just be about Donald Trump being convicted. If it if he is, it'll be appealed. And then, you know, Fannie, will it will it be in Georgia where Fannie Willis has their own problems? It's a misleading question. It is.

Rich Barris, big data poll. Excellent work. Thank you so much. Thanks, Charlie. All the best, buddy. Thanks so much for listening. Everybody email us as always. Freedom at Charlie Kirk dot com. Thank you so much for listening. God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to Charlie Kirk dot com.