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Good morning, everybody. Welcome into the Winklerverse. I'm Bart Winkler. The NFL draft is coming up.
So here is the game plan in the Winklerverse. Did an episode with Horvat, Ryan Horvat, that you can still find. Yesterday. The draft is going to be Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Benjamin Robinson, who joined me in Carlos one time, he's back.
He's with Grinding the Mocks. He started this thing. He's taken all these mock drafts. And he's basically saying, all right.
So everybody's mocking. What's the real mock going to be? He puts out his data. He's working with different teams with this data. He'll be the bulk of the episode.
Today, Thursday, we're going to do mm-hmm, mm-mm. We moved it this week. And then Friday, I'll jump on live and do a first-round recap. And then Friday night. I'll probably talk to some Packers after rounds two and three.
Uh is finished so I did not know a lot about this draft coming in. Uh just by doing a few of these draft episodes. I'm a little more. Acknowledgeable about what may happen and who's going where, at least in the top 10. And then after that, I have no clue.
I just have no. I just have no clue. And I think that that is okay. And I think that that's kind of where a lot of us are at right now. where the Packers don't have a pick.
Until mid-late second round.
So we're just gonna Watch it and see what happens. I don't think anyone expects. The Packers to trade into the first round. Maybe if they were in the low 30s or the high thirties or the 40s, but they're at 52. Uh so I d I don't think that they have enough capital.
To jump up. I also don't think that they de you know, necessarily Need. To jump up, it would be nice if they had a first-round pick. but not as nice as having Micah Parsons. Like, you're not going to find a guy in this draft that's well, maybe you will at the top, but the Packers are never going to draft at the top.
no matter what. Yeah, if you're like, oh, I wish the Packers had that guy, remember they have Micah Parsons, which I still like. I don't know what I'm looking for. But I don't think we make a big enough deal that the Packers have Micah Parsons. They have Micah Parsons.
When Greg Monroe came to the Bucs. We were acting like that was The second coming of Reggie White coming here. But Micah Parsons truly is. I don't know what more I need. What more do I want to see?
Maybe I just don't. Factor, but we have Micah Parsons, man. It just felt like when we got Reggie White, it was. You talked about it every single day. How you doing today?
Good. I'm doing good. The Packers have Reggie White. Oh, yeah, me too. Like you go to church.
Blessed be blah, blah, blah, and thanks for the Reggie White. You know? I don't know. I went to Catholic church. I wanted to always leave after communion.
But My parents may us ride it out till the end.
So that we could get Sprayed by the Brace? I don't know. I don't know that my I don't I don't think I want to take my kid to church every week. But He's almost seven years old and he's asking me what hell is. I said Hell and he goes, What even is hell?
How do you not know what hell is?
Well, he d how would he? If there wasn't a separation of church and state, I wouldn't have to go to a separate church thing. But then, you know, what, yeah. I think they should teach. The concept of religion?
Like, here's all the religions? I don't know. Tim? All right.
So, the draft is coming up this weekend.
Some other notes. Is all over. Being a buck right now. I'm seeing his post. Tuesday night, he put out a post like.
The deer district should be packed.
Well, yeah.
Well, I mean, you were hurt. A lot. And the team sucks. But it seems, it seems. Like, oh, year 13, this has been one of the toughest seasons of my career, but as they say, like a Phoenix from the ashes, I'll rise.
The city of Milwaukee, my caps lock MY City. Thank you for the unwavering love and support.
So maybe he felt like, oh, and then he even said, like, I should have just squashed these rumors earlier.
Well, yeah, you should have, but you have a deal with Kelsey.
So you prop that. I mean, it's hard. There's rumors going on around you all year. You are facilitating the rumors. They're Helping them.
And then we finally have a partnership with Kelsey. This whole season. Was weird. It just wasn't, it just was weird. It was bad.
And then the Doc Rivers part of it. And now. I retired, but I didn't. But I'm still getting paid. Like, you got fired.
You got told to retire, which is a firing. But they're still paying you. Just this was the this was the dumbest season ever. It was. It was the dumbest season.
Ever. And we've sat through a lot of bad seasons. It's different when you have a bad season. thinking about hope some day. Than it is having a bad season looking back on what you accomplished.
It is different. I mean, you shouldn't be that bitter because you did win a title. But it just was a bad season. It was a bad season, and it was a weird season. Because Giannis, it felt like he was one foot in, one foot out.
Based on what he was saying, but also. He literally was not around a lot. Where the hell was he? I still don't like that he was at the Super Bowl. Because I didn't even know he was there until I saw a video of him leaving.
I'm like the only one I think that cares about that. I don't mind that he was at Elimination Chamber because that was in Chicago and they had a game the next day. He didn't play, but. And they showed him at WWE WrestleMania. My kid's like, that's Giannis.
I'm like, why? Giannis, see, Giannis has been tight with AEW and WWE.
So maybe he thinks he can do that with the bucks. Like I can love both worlds. I can be a buck and not be a buck. Schrodinger's Janis. Is he a buck?
Is he not a buck? We don't know. He's both. That's what it seems like. Eric Name with the scoop.
This week that Taylor Jenkins. is getting serious consideration. To be a Bucs coach, I would be fine with that. And I'd be fine if they just finished this and we didn't have to. Deal with it.
Oh nice. I'm older than him. Great. Um Been with the Grizzlies. He was an assistant here a long time ago.
Apparently, does not get along with John Morant, so we don't have to worry about those rumors. But if you told me Taylor Jenkins is the coach, I'm like, okay, good. Then we don't have to do the coaching search, and we got a guy. That'd be fine. I think that would be fine with me.
So we'll see what they do. There, I will talk. Uh, well, I'm not going to talk too much Packers with Ben coming up here, Brewers. Brewers won. Nice victory to start that Tiger series.
Let me say this about the Brewers. They won twelve to four on uh Tuesday. Joeyartees Joey Ortiz struck out swinging against Jake Rogers. Jake Rogers is a catcher. They got a position player in there.
And just because it's a position player doesn't mean you're going to get a hit. These guys usually complete innings. But striking out striking out swinging. On a pitch that's coming. you know, slower than the speed limit on most highways.
Joy or tease. I don't think I'm ever going to look at the lineup and be like, Oh, that's the best lineup they could possibly have when Joey Ortiz is in there. And he came in the game as a pinch hitter, but. Joey Ortiz Struck out swinging. Against uh Catcher.
That's great. NL Central is a log jam still. Worst team in it is 13 and 10, the Pirates. Reds are sixteen and eight. I was talking to somebody last night.
Are the Reds for real? Are the Pirates for real? I think the Reds are for real. They made the playoffs last year. I think they're for real.
Cardinals have been bad, so we'll see what they turn out to be. Cubs and Brewers will be there at the end. Pirates, I d I d I think the Pirates Do you have a winning record on August 1st? Before anybody can See if they're real or not. Mets lost 12 now in a row?
They had lost 11. I took them as my survivor team. All I need them to do is go 50-50 this week. And I figured, well, you lost 12 in a row, you're not going to keep losing. But then WFAN had Hawk Tua on.
To talk Mets yesterday. WFA and Craig Carton had Hawk Tua Girl on, Haley Welch. I know her name. She's been hiding for a year, but she came out of whatever she's been doing to talk to Craig Carton about the Mets. Interesting.
Big thanks to our sponsor, BetterHelp, for partnering with us for this important conversation about mental health. This is Steve Smith here, former NFL wide receiver and host of the 89 Show on YouTube.
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Secure your play and go to ipvanish.com. We are brought to you by Happy Place Hemp. Promo code is Bart, 25% off, happyplacehemp.com. Seltzers, gummies. I'm a 20 meg guy, man.
I sip on a 20 and I drink it. And then I put my kid to bed. And then right as he goes down, I go downstairs. It kicks in. I watch for all mankind.
And I drift. Daredevil is good as shit again. This, wow, what a great show! I love Daredevil. All right, Benjamin Robinson is going to join us again on Thursday, and plenty of draft stuff the rest of the week.
And welcoming back into the Winklerverse. Benjamin Robinson grinding the mocks. Good to see you again. Draft is coming up. How are you doing?
I'm doing well, Bart. Thanks so much for having me back. Yeah, you know, it's like I said, it's kind of like a a marathon for me, not a sprint.
So I'm getting close to the finish line, but I I can see the light. The draft Thursday night's always a kind of It just feels like it's happening. I'm like, it's like Christmas. You know, you've been, it's been a lot of anticipation. It's building up, building up.
I get a little bit nervous about how the draft's going to play out versus what my numbers say, despite having done this many years and things always working out okay.
So, but yeah, I'm looking forward to it and getting ready to analyze what actually happens instead of just predicting. Just some background on you. Like, how did you get here? How did you get into this? Is this always something that?
You've been fascinated with. I think a lot of people are fascinated with the draft, but then to really Get into it like you are. How did that happen? I think a lot of it has to do with Kind of thinking like what do I what do I do how can I be different And so to me, you know, I didn't play football growing up. My mom didn't let me said, you know, wanted you to want my brain to be right or whatever.
My dad didn't let me. My parents didn't let me either because I sucked. I see. Gotcha there, protecting your ego. I see.
But yeah, like I played baseball instead. But like, so. You know, I I but I love football and I was like, well You know, what do I have to offer? I could watch some like YouTube clips, but like I have no clue. I'm just like enjoying the game.
I love just enjoying watching football. Um And so I wanted to get kind of involved in draft stuff. I really enjoyed the draft and kind of like looking at. The college to pro projection about how players make that transition. And players I loved watching in college, you know, suddenly they show up and they aren't good pros.
Like, what's going on there? Um So, but I kind of was thinking, like, what's my lane? Like, I don't, I just want to have a like, what's my lane? I never want to do what everybody else is doing. Yeah.
And so, at the time, like, in 2019. I really didn't see anybody doing this type of thing. I was talking with one of my best friends from college on his couch watching the 2018 draft and thinking, you know, hey, like. You know, what if we had a way of knowing, like, on average where players were going in mock drafts? Like, wouldn't that be kind of cool?
So, that we're not just relying on one person, like aka Mel Kuiper, just as the gospel truth for what is expected to happen. And so that's kind of where the curiosity started. You know, I have my background, I have like an undergrad degree in economics and urban studies. And so I was just kind of like, well. I think from like a just like a social science like kind of like data perspective, like maybe there's something here.
And so I kind of looked at some like proof of concept kinds of data from the 2018 draft to see like. You know, like, was this a surprise? Was Lamar Jackson going as late as he did a surprise? Was Terrell Edmonds, the safety from Virginia Tech, getting drafted in the first round by the Steelers, a big surprise? Um And so Those things you find interesting stuff, and I kind of whet my appetite to kind of learn more.
And so, in 2019, I kind of took a stab at things for the first time, and it's just been kind of Going above and beyond what I ever expected over the course of the years, where you know, now I work. directly with Two teams, and I've worked with agents and like analytics companies. And this year, my data is in the back end of the NextGen Stats NFLIQ tool.
So every year, things keep getting bigger and better. And yeah, it's been like a really cool thing to do in an awesome journey that I've been on over the time since starting that. But it started small and had very humble beginnings, but I've worked at it and here I am. I didn't plan to ask anything about this, but just talking about surprises, Shadur last year. I mean That was Fifth round?
That way we were on the air live, and I thought he was going three. And then I thought he would go like. To Pittsburgh, maybe. And then, you know, the Saints traded up, and then the Giants traded up, the Saints took Chuck. I I never thought.
And then the Browns, that was the second quarterback they even took. Yep, that had to I mean was that the biggest surprise you've seen yet? Yeah. It's the biggest surprise since Malik Willis. You know, Last year after the draft, I had my data quoted in a piece in the Wall Street Journal and You know, the writer there was also interested about what's this story with Chidor, like, what happened here?
And so, you know, I have a lot of different ways that I look at the draft through the lens of my data.
So, grinding the mocks is all about using the wisdom of crowds. Mock drafts and machine learning to predict the draft. And so, you know, I have, I don't have one model. I don't have just like one thing that's like, that is it, because there are many different ways to kind of predict what will happen in the draft.
So I have my public data, which just looks at the mock drafts as they're published and says, this is the universe of outcomes, and we'll predict from there. And then I have another model that I use with my team clients that takes a little bit more of a Um A different approach to the draft, the draft as like an uns a much more uncertain type of game. Um and so last year with Shadura, I think there was like a lot of uncertain a lot of certainty. But yeah, like Pittsburgh is it for him. Like that's where he's going to go.
Um and so It ended up being way far off what even I expected, and I was under market. Um, on Shador. I had him as my third quarterback, I had him going like early in round two, um, and so uh, I thought there was a really strong chance he would go in round one, even. Um But I I felt like his when players have The most certain outcome in my public data as their ceiling in my private data gives me some pause. And so, you know, when I think about this year, you know, there's not been as much quarterback chatter because.
I think people are not as certain that actually that Ty Simpson will be a first round pick. I think there's a decent amount of belief. And in my mock draft that I'll be publishing later today, I don't have him showing up in round one. And so there's always like a healthy debate of, like, hey, like, the quarterbacks, what happens with them can have a real kind of forking sort of behavior. Like, if the quarterback goes here, then the draft might go one way.
If the quarterback doesn't go here, the draft could go another way. And when there is no fork in the road, The draft tends to be a lot chalkier than people think. And so, for my opinion, I think the draft this year will be. Pretty chalky just because there isn't that quarterback landmine that everyone kind of runs toward. And if it doesn't hit, then suddenly there's this cascading effect.
So, you know, in previous years, I would get like about. Maybe like 28 or 27 or 28 of the top 32 in my top 32. And then last year you had a much lower number because. There was the Mike Green issue where the people just, yeah, like his character was just really bad, much worse than people had thought. And he went a lot later.
There was Will Johnson's injury issue. And then, you know, Shadur ended up going even way later than anybody could have expected, really. I think even if you asked somebody from the Browns, like, hey, like, what's the likelihood that Shador Sanders is going to be on the board in the fifth round? They probably would be like, well, Like, really low. I had a likelihood that you take him after you already took a guy.
Yeah, that too. You know, and in my advanced model, I had him at like. 93%.
So, to be honest, that's probably underselling it because my model tends to be very flat. It doesn't think that any one pick for a prospect that goes that lake is any more likely than any other.
So, but yeah, it was really surprising. You know, it's just very close to 100%.
So, Yeah, at the end of the day, you know, we take the lumps and you've remembered the outliers, but you forget the ones that you got like just right or like that weren't that far off.
So but yeah, Shador Sanders. That was a big surprise. And in my mind, I don't know when that'll happen again. But I don't expect that to happen this year with Ty Simpson. I expect him to be a day two pick.
I don't really expect many, almost any other quarterbacks to go on day two.
So You know, teams that are looking at quarterbacks, I think you can rest fairly easy until day three. And then I expect a good amount to go off the board.
So, It should be exciting, but yeah, this year's like lack of quarterbacks, I think, creates a much better environment for my data than in prior years where there's this kind of. Relative like certainty that creates like a more certain environment than there should be.
Well, maybe Ty Simpson will be a Pro Bowler like Shadur ended up. You gotta fix that. Yeah, I mean, a Pro Bowl used to mean something, you know? It doesn't flag football game. But yeah, you're right.
I mean, yeah, like, I think there, if I was the, the, Commissioner of the League, I'd change a couple things. The Pro Bowl, I'd definitely have to think of a way to make that matter. And then. I also think something that I brought up on a different show recently was about how the draft order is determined. I don't love that you get to the end of the season and teams get punished for winning games.
I just like doesn't feel right to me as an American. And I'd like to find a way to reward teams that are still playing hard and maybe for other reasons are not performing well. I don't know whether that's like a lottery or some other type of system, but I think that should happen. That way, it's not just a, oh, like the Jets lost week 17 game and it lost them like three or four draft picks slots or something. I just don't like that either.
It also doesn't sit well with me as an American. Yeah, drafts are socialism. Exactly. People don't want to admit it. But my opinion, the draft is very American.
And It It restrains labor at the expense of ownership and it rewards people who don't try and or don't try as much. But then on the other side of things, it also is kind of like a sense of like opportunity. Like it gives people some amount of hope that by being poorly, you could get the best players, get a shot at the best players. And in reality, we know the draft is actually a lot more uncertain than that. Like the way that the players are picked.
Almost never aligns with the actual outcomes. And so we do have like draft curves that can tell us what we expect at different picks in terms of production and salary and stuff. And there is a lot of truth to that. But Teams make mistakes in the top 10 every year.
So it's kind of this sort of like a fake opportunity in some ways. Have you seen um Good stuff there. Have you seen any? Mocks that don't have, like, that don't have Mendoza one. No, no.
Because some mocks for like mocks will like, hey, I want to get my name out there. I'll put somebody else at one or I'll put somebody else at two or whatever. But it's it's so There's just, there's nothing, there's no suspense there. No, I think like the only mocks that would have. Mendoza not at number one are, I've seen like not many, but like.
We asked ChatGPT to make this mock, and this is what it did. Like, just like content farming, like engagement farming type of stuff. Um And so, like, that's one, or like what I would do. And if you don't like Mendoza as a prospect, then you might be like, I prefer. Jeremiah Love, or whatever.
Obviously, not at number one, or whatever. But, like, oh man, Arville Reese, I'd rather take him than Mendoza or something. I don't know. Well what do you see between the turn scene to anything that doesn't have Mendoza at one? The the big I think You know, we were just kind of kicking around and playing with draft simulators yesterday.
And you've got Bailey out of Texas Tech and Reese out of Ohio State. Are are they Two, three, from what you're seeing? Is there a particular guy that's going to go two? More of the time, could there be a curve in there? Because it seems like those are the guys at two and three.
It does feel that way. That's kind of like what's what I'm seeing in mock draft data. Um You know, there's been just a lot of talk about Reese at 2 for a really long time without, I think, giving it the kind of critical thought it deserves. Um Reese is a really talented player where there's a lot of projection involved. In terms of You know, w at college he played m m mostly off the ball as a linebacker.
When he was on ball, he was good at setting the edge. That's definitely something that he has in his game. Just the number of true pass rush snaps is just really small.
So, like, the kind of projection that you have to do to get to the point where. you have like a real comfort With Reese, it just gives me some pause. And so, you know, I just believe that given how the Jets don't want to necessarily want to be picking here next year or in other years, you don't want to be picking a, you'd rather, even if you are picking that high, you want to have like a premium position player. I just think David Bailey is the safer guy. He has a lot of production over the course of two years.
Defensive line is like a lot easier to evaluate in terms of the actual college to projection because. Um, you are just like it's a lot easier to evaluate this defensive lineman against this offensive lineman. What is he doing? Um, and so for me, I would prefer um Bailey, and so that's what I think will happen, just because I think that. It just feels way too risky of a move to take this guy at number two overall.
There's a difference between what I think will happen and what will happen. Um even like today, Peter Schrager had Him falling from to pick five, for example, which I don't, which I think might be one of the few scenarios that you see that happen, but I think it kind of is showing: hey, like, maybe we need to be giving this some pause. Um, I think, even like you've seen like some insiders like Todd McShea have go back and forth between Reese and Bailey a lot and kind of was on Reese for a long time, then heard Bailey, then heard Reese again, and then heard Bailey again.
So there's been like a lot of just back and forth there. Um, I still think it's Bailey. Um, that's my expectation. My data is just really close on the two of them. It's kind of like, One should go two and one should go three.
I don't think you can go too wrong picking one or the other. But I don't think it would be a huge upset if Bailey went second and Rhys went third.
So. I think the most, you know, just for like... Casuals Which I am this year, because I'm not. doing a show during the draft for the first time in 10 years. I think the interesting thing is, you know, the quarterbacks are always interesting.
The Bailey and Rhys stuff is interesting, but Jeremiah Love. He's a running back. And he's going to go top 10. And last year we had Genty.
Sometimes with these, sometimes with these running backs, it's like. You don't want to take a running back at one, two, three, four, five. But then, after the fact, you look at, well, who is the best player in that draft? And it's like, well, the running, I mean, the running back, of course.
So it's like, you don't want to take him, but he is a top kind of guy. What are you seeing with Jeremiah Love? You mentioned Schrager. He just had the Cardinals taking him. Yeah.
So he could go three, four. I don't think he goes past five. Yep. But what are you seeing out of Jeremiah Love? Yeah, I'm agreeing with that.
I think at three, there's like some like. pro-Cardinals with propaganda out there. Like they're kind of Like they've let people know that they want to trade out of this pick. Like, very similarly to what they did a few years ago with when they traded with the Texans and the Texans traded up and took Will Anderson. I think they want to do something similar to what they did that year, which is to accumulate more draft picks, whether it's this year or next year, and trade down.
The Cardinals, like number one need in my data is offensive tackle. But I think no one believes that the Francis Mauinoa, the top-ranked tackle from Miami, is the guy that should be picked there.
So even though he's like their most mocked ranked, most mocked player in my data, even though a tackle is their most mocked position, you know, people will put Arville Reese at three. And so it's like Reese and Bailey, and then the other teams kind of come up the rear. But yeah, I think. For love, I think the most likely is still pick four. I think pick three is a smokescreen because.
I think they're still trying to really get a trade to happen. I think they'll end up taking. Either Rhys or Bailey, who is there. But yeah, I think the Titans are very live at four for Love. I think.
For me, I wouldn't take him in the top ten at all. Just from my personal point of view, just because I think most of the teams in the top 10 are not a running back away from making a difference. The running back position is what we call a weak link position, where it relies on offensive line. If one offensive lineman misses a block, the running back can be awesome and there's just nothing you can do. And so, all it takes is one.
Same thing with the secondary. It's like, you know, all it takes is one guy to bust the coverage. Everyone else can be doing their job, and there's a big play. And so for the running back, yeah, like maybe missing a tackle, but like. Usually, in order to get a big play, you need the offensive line to be making like perfect blocks.
Like the most efficient play in football is a perfectly blocked run.
So, those plays that are perfectly blocked where everyone's winning their blocks and doing their job, those plays tend to go for big chunk gains. But on average, still, you don't, the yards per carry is still pretty low. Even in a league where rushing is becoming more valuable, like the two high defenses, the cover two looks that most teams are employing are inviting you to run the ball at them. The Seahawks this year won a Super Bowl by inviting you to run at them and then fitting the run and then making your life miserable when you want to pass. That's what a lot of teams w truly want to do.
And so, the kinds of players that you actually do need in those types of situations aren't the running backs, really. You need like the safeties and the linebackers. And so, you know, when I think about that, like the new era of defense, in my mock draft that I have coming out later today, I have the Giants getting Sonny Stiles at pick five and Caleb Downs at pick 10. I think those are the types of players that you would want to have in this NFL that make a big difference on top of the premium positions that you already have.
So, in my mind, love going in the top 10, just like. The Titans are not a running back away from being a lot better. I think they could use really use the receiver. And so. I think they probably will end up drafting one.
On day two, maybe, but the Titans and the Cardinals. I mean, the Cardinals, heck, they like, they spent money on Tyler Algier in free agency. James Conner's coming back for one more year. You know, they drafted a running back in like the second or third round a couple of years ago out of Florida State. I'm kind of like blanking on his name at the moment, but like they have some guys.
I don't see a need to be like, yeah, we need to take this running back first overall, especially when, you know, they're. They have all these other issues on offense. I think the Cardinals should be thinking about what makes us better next year. And I don't think the running back is what's going to put them over the top in any way, shape, or form, especially when you have a new regime. I don't think that they're at risk of getting fired in any way, shape, or form.
And you kind of want to start building up that roster for the future.
So I think he'll go at four. And I don't think that's the right move, but right now we're just trying to predict what will happen. Having the right people in your corner for life's biggest milestones makes all the difference. Like a friend who's there when you're house hunting or checking out a new ride, State Farm is there too, helping you choose the coverage you need. With a State Farm agent, you know someone is there to help you along the way.
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Well, I mean with that, like there could be trades. I mean, you can't sometimes the trades there will be trades, but yeah, the question is not necessarily if there will be trades, but when you make a mock, can you predict where the trades will happen? Do you predict the number of trades? This year, the clock is going from 10 minutes to 8 minutes. Will that have an impact on trade talks?
Unclear. I don't know. And so to me, you know, when I'm projecting my mock and like other people do, most people don't put in trades just because. It's hard to know when that trade will specifically. Happen and then who it will be with.
And then also, people whenever I see a trade in a mock, I'm always like, Oh, big man, ridiculous trade, big man. Yeah, I agree. Yeah, look at you. Oh, wow. I don't know why I get it.
It's, I don't know, I like get offended by it. Like, oh, you think there's gonna be a trade. Wow, you're cool. Yeah, you're really cool. You're something.
Yeah, like it just. The draft is just very uncertain, and so for me. When I'm thinking about projecting the draft with my data. I just think it's helpful to just be pretty uncertain about most things. Don't try to put your thumb on the scale and say, I think this is what happens.
And so I'm like, I try to be. Fairly objective in that way, not try to say like to push one outcome or another, just to let the gate let the data do what it says, like let the algorithms run. And the results have been really good over the years.
So. For me, that's my perspective: like, just whatever you think is going to happen, you probably need to be a little bit. More open to the idea that something else might happen. Every year there are. you know, mock draft team.
combinations that people just hammer. And, like, you know, last year was like Jalen Walker to the, to the, um, Panthers. And then You know, there was basically like no other place that people thought he could go. You know, it was like a few years ago with Dallas Turner to the Bears. He ended up going to the Vikings.
There was like no other place he could go. Yeah. And then this year, it's like Dylan Thieneman, the safety from Oregon. It's like, man, you're just getting hammered to the Vikings at 18. And so, when people are doing that, there's some hurting that happens.
And then also, people tend to kind of not look at like past trends. And so, what I've been doing with my mock draft data is using it to inform my mock draft development. Like, how often do these teams with these decision makers Do specific things. And so, like, for example, you can look back and say, like, I know you're a Packers guy, right? Like, how often does Brian Goudekunds take the top mocked player on his board?
Well, if I'm looking at like that, then like, you know, maybe we don't know. People tend to like overthink and they constantly are taking, like, maybe like, The second or third position that we mock to them the most. And then maybe like the fourth or fifth ranked player. And so when we're like thinking about that, people tend to not, it's a very micro type of decision. They just think like in this moment, what we think is going to happen.
And it's not necessarily like looking at a more macro view and saying, hey, like, Given what people think, what do they actually do?
Some teams mirror what people expect of them really well. The giants, like they seem to almost always take the guy that people are mocking to them the most. It just like that's the way it's been since Sean has been there. He's been picking pretty high a bunch of the time.
So it's like a lot easier to do that because the prospect pool is a lot smaller. But like, yeah, like.
Some teams are just less predictable than others. Another team that's like really fairly unpredictable are the Lions. It's always very unclear kind of like what they're doing, but obviously it's working for them. But yeah, like I think people just need to be open to the idea that what they think will happen doesn't always happen. And you just got to kind of ride out that uncertainty.
But yeah, that's what makes the draft fun is not that everything happens as expected, but that there are these deviations. And that creates this interesting storyline about what happens when teams take players a lot earlier than we expect. Or like, hey, it's a different position. Like, what does it signal about what they're thinking about team building? Because ultimately, the draft is about team building.
It's about thinking about not just the best players, but the best players that fit your team. And so that's one of the things that I love about a team like the Packers is that they just have this really cool established philosophy. And there's really strong alignment, fairly often strong alignment between the front office and the coaching staff, but they don't let the coaching staff dictate everything. And so Um That's kind of what's exciting about the draft. And so I don't know if you want to talk Packers a little bit before we wrap up or anything, but I'm excited to.
I don't know. I don't know. I'm interested. You know, I've always got stuff. You know, I still think defensive tackle.
is a strong likelihood. I think round two will be really strong. With defensive tackles. I like Christian Miller from Georgia still quite a bit. I think there's even a chance that some of the guys that have been in discussion for round one places, like Caleb Banks from Florida, or, you know, even Peter Woods from Clemson, you know, if he drops as far as people might say, I think there's a chance he could be available in the second round.
And that would be obviously like a really nice selection there, too, for the Packers. But yeah, I think. There's more to the draft than just round one. That's where all the attention goes. I prefer actually round two.
Round two is like my favorite night of the draft, round two and three, my favorite night of the draft. It's because you're getting so much more, so many more picks. And it begins the kind of like, oh Mel, like, what was that? Like, very rarely we see some first round picks where we get some surprises, but usually there's like one or two. Big surprises.
So when you start getting into round two and three, that's when stuff kind of hits the wall a little bit. The fan, I guess you could say. But yeah, no, it it's excit it's exciting. But yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing what the the Packers do with this pick. Just real quick with the Giants, I'm interested in because they just made a trade.
Yeah. So they pick five and they pick ten. Has there been enough data? Has there been enough that like What they're gonna do at five changes because they have ten? Have you seen any of that?
The main beneficiary of the Giants trading up. to pick five or pick ten is Caleb Downs. Um I think, so he's been rising a lot in my data leading into this week, since this trade. In coming into the week, when you know, it takes a little while for the mock drafts to react to some of this external information. And so I think People thought that maybe he would fall outside of the top 10, potentially, like to Dallas or something, or Miami.
And now I think he's solidly. in the top 10. I haven't gone to the Giants at 10, but there's some people who even believe that he's in play at pick five. I just think it's kind of funny where it's like. I think most of the like if I look up let me pull up um His chart in terms of like the top team matches for Caleb Downs.
Um the Giants are his most mocked team. Followed by the Bengals who were out of it, the Commanders, the Dolphins, and the Cowboys.
So it's like. He's in play for both spots for the Giants. The commanders, if he's still on the board, I think they'll consider him. I still think the commanders go wide receiver. The Dolphins will be lucky if he's there at all.
And then the Cowboys obviously would be also be really lucky if he was there at all. But to me, I think it's either the Giants or the Commanders for Caleb Downs. But he's been the biggest beneficiary. I think there's a lot of times where teams are where mock drafts are saying, hey, like, we actually think that. He might be in play for pick five.
So, but yeah, I think he's kind of got these like interesting landing spots. Like five is definitely kind of his ceiling. Uh, but yeah, he's been the biggest beneficiary by far of the trade with the Bengals. And as like a Cincinnati native and a Bengals, ostensibly a Bengals fan, people sometimes will call me just like a Bengals fan, which kind of that's not, I don't think that's at all what I come off as. But nor do you want to admit it if you are.
I don't mind admitting it. You know, I'm having, I support my hometown teams, and the Bengals have been to a Super Bowl in my lifetime, which is more than I can say for the Cincinnati Reds who I follow a lot more closely. But, but yeah, like. It was very surprising. I think it's hard.
It's going to be, it's going to take some time, obviously, to see what. what ends up going on. I think, you know, The careers of whoever gets picked at pick 10 and Dexter Lawrence are going to kind of be compared for a long time in Bengals Land. But it means that Bengals fans can also rest a little easy, because I think the Bengals fans were most concerned what was gonna happen was. all the players that they were interested in from a defensive point of view.
The Mansoor Delanes from LSU, the Caleb Downs from Ohio State, the Sunday Stiles from Ohio State, Ruben Bain from Miami are all gone. And at pick 10, they're staring down like any of the offensive linemen who they probably don't want the team to take And Jermod McCoy, the cornerback from Tennessee. And in that moment. um that they would take like a flyer on like Auburn and defensive end, like edge rusher, Keldrick Falk. And I think that was like in the nightmare that the Bengals had, and they're just very risk-averse.
And In this moment, by being risk averse, they actually made a pretty risky type of bet. On Dextrid Lawrence.
So it's definitely exciting as a Bengals fan. I wish they had this mentality about going all in for these kind of valuable players a couple years ago when it was clear that that was something that they were needing. But instead, they. They got, you know, they brought in, you know, former Packer TJ Slayton in the offseason last year. They drafted a couple of defensive tackles in the recent drafts, and both of them are underperforming.
So, but yeah, the trade has kind of been a catalyst, but like only for a couple players.
Well, we'll find out what happens soon enough. The draft is Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Benjamin Robinson grinding the mocks. Thanks for coming back, and we'll talk to you again.
Sounds good, Bart. But yeah, just a real quick shout-out. If people want to find more about grinding the mocks, grindingthemocks.com is a great place to go for my public data. I have a Substack blog where my mock draft and like my other research and analysis lives. And then I also, I think maybe I mentioned this, but my data also appears in the NFL Next Gen Stats NFL IQ tool, which you can find at nfl.com/slash IQ.
So there's many places to find all that great grinding the mocks data and analysis. And then enjoy the week after that when you can rest. Amen, brother. Amen. Benjamin Robinson, thanks for stopping into the Winklerverse.
Appreciate it. Star Wars is back on the big screen with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Gangsters, war criminals. I'll take out every bad guy in your deck of cards. On May 22nd, feel the force.
On the biggest screen possible. The old protect the young, and the young protect the old. This is the way. Yeah. Buckle up.
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