College Football Playoffs and where it’s completely wrong

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Call clickgrainger.com or just stop by. Grainger. For the ones who get it done. You people think the college football season is over. We'll talk five plus seven and other matters of the college football heart with Chip Patterson, Cover Three Podcast, CBSSports.com. How are you, my friend? I'm good.

I'm good. I said, I said, it's hesitation. Well, I was just telling Victoria that there are stories that come up and I acknowledge them as a medium college football story. You know, something procedural, something that has significance and impact, but in the larger sports world, you know, it's like, okay, you know, Chip will inform us about that when it becomes relevant.

But when the NBA is on the All-Star break, when the NFL is in a Super Bowl hangover, when Major League Baseball hasn't gotten going, Adam, a lot of people want to talk about this playoff when you're talking about trying to get through, you know, a full hour of sports content on 24 hour a day sports networks. But yeah, it's something I have been thinking about for about the last three weeks. I've written about it a lot at CBSSports.com. We've talked about it a lot on the Cover Three Podcast. And so I'm always happy to be of service to the inquiry. All right. So let's start there.

And here's where I want to start. Kevin Clark, who does a This Is Football podcast, I think he does it for ESPN. It's Omaha Productions, right?

It's the Peyton Manning vehicle. He was on ESPN radio this morning and I swear he was speaking directly to me. So I want you to hear this. I played it about 15 minutes ago, but I want Chip to hear this.

Here's Kevin Clark from this morning on unsportsmanlike on ESPN radio. There are six teams because I think the way college football works is scarcity is the backbone of the sport and perfection is the backbone of the sport. There are not 12 teams that can conceivably win the championship in a given year. They're probably not eight. But are there five in most years?

Probably. Do you want to see five or six? You want to see a team like Tulane a couple of years ago get a shot to do it? I think rewarding the top two teams in the country, which, by the way, normally there are only two teams that can win the national championship. I think rewarding those teams with buys, even using the traditional bowl system, almost like a plus one where you have six teams in contention.

They play each other. Then you kind of re-rack and do a national championship two weeks later. I think that the 12 is too much. Four is too little. I think the BCS probably didn't get the credit it deserved in most years. And there were only a handful of years where we needed more teams than that. But I think six was perfect.

And I just think 12 is going to dilute what makes college football amazing, which is the feeling that if you lose one game, you're out of contention. All right. Where do you want to start with what Kevin Clark had to say this morning? Because I could not agree more with everything he had to say. Because you're smart, just like Kevin Clark. He's a friend.

He's a Cover Three podcast listener. I'm in good company. You're in great company. I remember in 2013 that even with a statistical analysis of where do we draw the line in terms of like real drop-offs in college football, two was great and six was great. And four was incredibly imperfect, that often your top two tier and then the next group had three or four teams tier and then you drop off again. I think that there was something that they imagined would be a selling point when all of those conference commissioners agreed that someone was going to be left out, that the game of musical chairs was a selling point, that that was going to be a way to bring people in. But it was not representative of where the lines of delineation are when determining the top teams in college football. I've got a story up right now that is projecting the 2024, 2025 college football playoff with the new five plus seven intact. And as I sat down, you've got your lines of delineation.

You can go ahead and you can draw them. Six would be an excellent college football playoff. Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Michigan, Alabama.

Because guess what? After that, there's a drop. And then you get into Penn State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, LSU. So now we're talking about, all right, so of those Penn State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, LSU with the, you know, the automatic qualifiers involved, now they get to play the who's in, who's out as they fight for the final at-large bids. And Adam, Adam, get ready. Because yesterday this blew my mind and I've heard that there was just like one tweet from a much followed account who I don't follow, but that really stirred it up. Notre Dame is getting screwed.

Or if I'm to use the Adam voice that he uses on the Canes Corner podcast to reference tweets that he thinks are dumb. Notre Dame's getting screwed, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Notre Dame not only agreed to this, but with athletic director Jack Swarbrick on the super secret four man committee created the DAGOM system. That's what I didn't understand four years ago.

So you can't tell me no to anyway. So that was one thing that blew my mind. The other thing, and this is really not going to set in until we get like into the season because again, I sat there, I broke everything down. The top 10 teams in college football as I see it are all from the big 10 in the SEC. And when Clemson jumps from number 13 to number three, because they are the third highest ranked conference champion, that is going to make some brains explode. And it shouldn't happen. Here's me. You're like give me one through 12, line them up.

I don't care. If we're going to have this, then let's do it correctly. For the ones who work hard to ensure their crew can always go the extra mile and the ones who get in early so everyone can go home on time. There's Grainger offering professional grade supplies backed by product experts so you can quickly and easily find what you need. Plus, you can count on access to a committed team ready to go the extra mile for you.

Call click Grainger dot com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done. But we but we all know why we're having this right and to avoid antitrust. Yeah, to avoid a lawsuit. So it's where we're protecting money. We're not doing anything that's fair or even good for the sport. We're doing this because we think it will make us more money. It's the only reason why we're doing it. And I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but I believe that if we're doing that, like that's for professional sports to do it.

Right. That's for the NFL to expand the playoffs because it gives us will make more money if we expand the playoffs or to expand the regular season. Because it will make more money in. I mean, to a certain extent that money should filter down to the players. Doesn't always work in the NFL even. But theoretically, it should.

I guess that whole trickle down thing maybe doesn't work. I don't know. It's another it's another topic of conversation, Chip. But the it the pro level, I get it. But at the college level, even though we're about to head into an era where college athletes are going to be on the employee role, because that's coming because nobody's got any vision and intercollegiate athletics and hasn't had it for 20 years. I just don't I don't understand everything we're doing with the playoff is simply to avoid a lawsuit. There's no reason for a fifth.

We we have the autonomy for. While the ACC is still alive, it could be three. We're going to get to that topic in a sec. Oh, I don't I don't think the Big 12 is playing the same game no matter what happens. I know. I understand. But at least it's it doesn't appear that anybody is coming for their schools right now. Right.

Oh, correct. The ACC is definitely based on what happened Friday has definitely opened themselves up to a much sooner end game than the Big 12. And maybe it all ends at the same time, to be honest. But right now, there are four major conferences in college football. The only reason that we have a five plus seven model is so the group of five leagues won't sue. That's the only reason why we have that, because let's be fair or be honest about it. The chance that the champion of the group of five is in the top 12 of teams in the country.

Honestly, I don't know, one in three, one in four, one in five, one in six. Well, the real interesting thing, because of one of the many different ways I've cut this up, most of the schools who have gotten the New Year's six bid, because that's essentially what we did is we're inviting the New Year's six bid into the college football playoff where they will, to your point, almost always be the 12 seed. And the only year that they would have been the 11 seed is when it was an undefeated Houston team.

Right. And they're now in the big 12. There was that year where UCF was there and they're in the big 12.

OK, well, what about Cincinnati? You know, they got the group. Oh, now they're in the they got into the playoffs and got smoked.

No, it was twenty four to six. Yeah. I watched the game. That was not competitive. I said Cincinnati will not touch pay dirt or cross the goal line once unless it is backwards for a safety. Right.

Yes, I understand what you're saying. They got smoked. That's the thing that makes it a little bit intriguing is that, you know, these programs that had, you know, that kind of maybe even we are jumping up and we're a 10 or a nine seed. It is always going to be the 12 seed and it's going to be Liberty or Tulane. I mean, it might have been SMU, but now SMU is in the ACC. But I will say that for the ACC standpoint and from the big 12 standpoint, I. I am glad that in this two years, which, by the way, also remember, we do not have a college football playoff in place for twenty, twenty six and beyond.

Right. Because we don't have a television deal yet, because when we spoke about it last week, that apparently is not a deal yet. Nothing's been signed. They reached out to agents representing the college football playoffs financial interests.

Yes, but the conference commissioners have not agreed to any television deal or to any kind of format. And the negotiations are cutthroat where the SEC and the big 10, they come out and we want four automatic bids. Everyone's like, what?

What are you talking about? And I think that that is like because they have all the leverage. They ask for everything.

And then what are they going to be left with? Two automatic bids, right? You know, they are going to have double the number of automatic bids of any other conference. I think this is a test kitchen.

We are in a two year test kitchen. I agree with you. I think it's going to go to 16.

I don't think we're going to have buys. And I believe that creating more access for the SEC and the big 10 will be the driving factor of being able to expand to 16 because the thought will be that those will be filled. Now, for our two years, as we're sitting here in these two years, it does make the conference championship game for the SEC and the big 12 a do or die scenario.

Probably does. No question. That is tense. Making it to that conference championship game and winning that conference championship game. That will be drama at the highest levels for these next two seasons. No question that that NC State Virginia Tech game is going to be awesome every single year.

Chip Patterson, may I say that? Because on Friday, when the ACC filed in Leon County court that they're filing for a dismissal of Florida State's lawsuit against the ACC, they basically put language in their filing to say that the buying your way out is not punitive. It's simply you have to if you want to buy back your rights that you have willingly given away twice Florida State, then there's a price to pay for that.

And that is not punitive. That's just that's just the deal. And Andy Staples wrote an on three and we talked to him about it yesterday. It was yesterday, the day before.

I don't remember now. I think it was yesterday that it was basically saying, all right, now let's negotiate. I don't think it has to mean that because I believe that if the ACC negotiates an exit price for Florida State, unless that number is five hundred million dollars, I think the ACC is done. They might be done anyway, but I think if that number is not five hundred million, I think it's over and it's over quickly. I I do not pretend to understand the financials at that level.

I'm a we that's almost in fake money. It's been, you know, you know, I don't have a good idea of what would be fake or what would be not what would mean they're dead. I do know that there are administrators in the ACC at schools not named Florida State who have said.

We have gotten to the endgame like this had to happen in court so we could get to hear. I have heard administrators at schools in the ACC say, well, we don't know what the number is. We know that there is probably a number to get out and we don't know what the number is. Five hundred million is not the number. It will be lower than that. And I don't know how to draw the line to say, well, if it's this low than this or if it's this high than this. But we are entering the steps of the process that had been foretold by administrators in the ACC since way back in, like, the Magnificent Seven drama.

Shout out to Brent McMurphy for causing a huge hysteria at ACC meetings. But those conversations were comparing notes. OK, so what does your legal team think the number might be? What does your legal team think the number might be?

How much can we swallow like when we're having our own internal meetings with our leadership? What what would make sense for us if we do pay this? How much do we stand to earn?

What kind of negotiations could be made with our next conference that could offset this? You know, those moving pieces that all started with what's the number? And so Florida State's going to be the first one through the wall and they're going to reach a number. And then everyone else will figure out if that number satisfies, you know, what they think. And maybe they stick around for another year. You know what happens every single year you stick around?

You get more Florida State's money. Number goes down. That's true. Right. Every single year the number goes down. So it is going to be a headache when we are sitting there, if they haven't announced it already, at ACC football kickoff and trying to see whether or not they're going to get out by August 10th, whatever that mid-August date is that would then determine the twenty twenty five season.

And I wonder and this is me wandering aloud. I haven't spoken to anyone at the ACC league office about this. And I know they're all huge fans of the Adam Gold show.

So feel free to reach out to me for clarification. I I don't know if there is something within the ACC's leadership that says we are doing more damage to our conference by going through every single July and every single August with this hanging over our heads. It would it be literally we would get millions of dollars.

Would it be better to just take these millions of dollars and figure out the best way to position our conference to survive for what you have hinted at, which is the great breakaway in higher college athletics, which is who wants to pay the players. And I don't even know that all the ACC schools do. No, I don't think they do.

I don't. I don't think there's any question. I think you would feel a lot.

If the finances are your concern and not it like some big moral ethical amateurism thing, if it's a financial thing, you're going to feel better if you're getting your one seventeenth of Florida State's four hundred million dollars at being able to use that money to be able to finance such an operation. So I I wonder if reaching the end game for the ACC, some part of it is like we've just got to end this because it is doing more damage to our standing. Our other schools are getting antsy. They are getting uncomfortable. They are reaching out to back channels, to other conferences. They're trying to figure out whether or not we are going to get packed 12. And they're going to if you can be proactive. Maybe you take a little bit of a loss saying goodbye to a big brand name program like Florida State.

But you at least end the uncertainty and you could take that money and focus on securing your future. I mean, Florida State goes out the door. I would imagine Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia. I mean, there could be six, anywhere from six to eight teams. There are limited spots on those boats because if those super leagues get too big, they will not be able to function. The SEC does not want to expand right now in part because they don't want to invite more people.

No, I understand. But what if it's only two leagues? You've got to give them votes. You know, somebody cautioned me that going beyond 20 is probably not going to happen. So there's four more spots in the SEC, there's two more spots in the Big Ten, and that's it.

Okay, that's six. For the ones who work hard to ensure their crew can always go the extra mile, and the ones who get in early so everyone can go home on time, there's Grainger. Offering professional grade supplies backed by product experts so you can quickly and easily find what you need. Plus, you can count on access to a committed team ready to go the extra mile for you. Call clickgrainger.com or just stop by.

Grainger, for the ones who get it done. That's six. Are there six schools? You and I have talked about the SEC. I don't think there are six schools out west that are worth maybe Colorado. You and I have talked about how the SEC feels about Florida State. They don't want Florida State. They don't want Florida State. They'd probably take Clemson. Even though they have South Carolina, they'd probably take Clemson.

I don't know. We could go round and round on this for a long time. I'm not sure that either of the two leagues want to expand. But at this point, it's only a game of big business.

And they can put, theoretically, a competitor out of business. That's the part of this whole discussion. Chip Patterson is here, by the way. It's the part of this whole discussion that really makes me, not like physically ill, but it's so disappointing because in this game of grab as much money as you can, none of this, zero of it, is good for the health of the sport. It's only good for the finances of these major schools. And at some point, why do we have Vanderbilt again? Why do we have Northwestern? Why do we have Indiana?

What are you doing for us? Why should you get the same money that Michigan gets? At some point, all of that fairness is going to go away.

Well, you know where it starts? Because I'm like you, I'm so exhausted by trying to guess where schools are going to end up and why the conference wouldn't want one school, why they wouldn't want another, and all the things going into it. When the college football playoff negotiations come up for the 2026 and beyond, the SEC and the Big Ten are going to set a standard that they are then going to take to their own conferences, which is we get more. Right now, all of the schools that were formally identified as Power Five, because Washington State and Oregon State are still going to get a Power Five per school payment from the college football playoff. Power conferences got 80% of the money, and then the group of five got 20% of the money. But among all those 65 Power Five schools plus Notre Dame, they all got even payouts. And what's going to happen is the standard will be set with this next contract where the Big Ten and the SEC are going to get better payouts from the college football playoff than the ACC and the Big Twelve, which will then maybe even be tiered and better than the American, the Sun Belt, the MAC, and the Mountain West. They are then going to take that standard when contracts are up in 29, 30, and 32. When those contracts come up, they are going to say that to those schools that are not bringing as much value.

And that will be the new standards that's set. All right, we have to close here. Look, you and I could have this conversation forever.

I love talking to you about these things because you're super smart and you make me sound better. But work with me on this. Here's where my head is at. We have like five leagues all with, let's just say, 12 teams. We call one the Premier League, one Serie A, one La Liga, one Bundesliga, and one Ligue 1.

Actually, the French league sucks. Exactly. MLS. Maybe not. That's where I think we're headed.

I think we're headed for just a Super League. And I'm sorry if you can't pull your weight on the field. Sorry, Vanderbilt. Sorry, Northwestern.

Sorry, Indiana. Then you got to go. That's where I think we're headed. The college football playoff as a Champions League model, I would actually be okay with. Where you've got your domestic league, which is trying to win your conference. And then if you do, then you get put into this other boat where you get to play against the other best teams. If the Super League just ends up being like a Champions League model, then I think that that'd be a cool way to talk about college football.

But I don't think that's what's going to happen. And ACC is kind of like a League, or a Bundesliga, right? You walk in, there's only- It's more League 1. Well, I mean- It's more League 1. No, no, no, no, no. I'm from Florida State, Miami.

And I know Miami hasn't been running hot, but at least- Yeah, it's more like League 1. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.

It's like a buying leather kitchen type situation, you know? Like- No. It's League 1.

Unfortunately, it's just, yeah. It's League 1. It's League 1.

And different teams take turns on who gets to be PSG. Right. That's good. Yeah. Florida State gets to be PSG, and then they trade it to Clemson, and then Clemson feeds it back to Florida State, and then maybe Clemson takes it back this year with a star-studded defense.

There is an argument about Bundesliga, but right now I think it's League 1. Chip, you're the best, man. I appreciate your time. Sounds good.

Y'all be well. For the ones who work hard to ensure their crew can always go the extra mile, and the ones who get in early so everyone can go home on time, there's Grainger, offering professional-grade supplies backed by product experts so you can quickly and easily find what you need. Plus, you can count on access to a committed team ready to go the extra mile for you. Call, click grainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done.