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It’s now time to empty the college football coverage tank

The Adam Gold Show / Adam Gold
The Truth Network Radio
November 29, 2023 3:32 pm

It’s now time to empty the college football coverage tank

The Adam Gold Show / Adam Gold

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November 29, 2023 3:32 pm

As we head into the conference championship weekend of the college football season, Adam is joined by Chip Patterson, CBS Sports, to predict the analytics and scenarios that can come about after this weekend. They discuss if there’s a scenario where Florida State defeats Louisville in the ACC Championship game, but they’re left out of the top five in the college football playoffs rankings. Also, considering how NC State closed their season, would they be able to bridge the gap between Louisville in discussion for an Orange Bowl appearance?

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I hope you are. I mean, this is, uh, this is it. Whatever you got left in the tank, if you're in my business, you pour it out because, uh, because this is, this is it. I like, seriously, 12 games a year for a sport that we talk about 12 months a year. You're holding anything back.

Then why are you even in the business? It's funny. Um, so we're, we're at this part. We've got five power, five conference championship games. Uh, app is going to play in the Sunbelt conference championship game.

That's very cool. Um, it, it, it didn't look like that's where we were headed this year. We're with app. So good for them to kind of, uh, you know, for, for what their standards are for writing the ship, if you will heck of a win at James Madison. I still feel bad for JMU that, uh, they're not allowed to go to a post seat. Not a lot, not allowed to go to a bowl game. We're not eligible. Oh, they, oh, they can go to a bowl game now.

Yes. Both James Madison and Jacksonville state are bowl eligible because there were not enough six and six teams to be able to fill the 82 spots in the bowl games for this post-season. So the NCAA said it was okay. No, that's always been, yeah, you, you are, you go ahead of the five and seven teams and we still are going to need one five and seven team to be able to get in to fill it out. I believe according to the APR score, Minnesota gets the first right of refusal to decide if he wants to be there, but Hey, while we're in this, the sunbelt has 12 bowl teams. There are 14 teams in the sunbelt conference. 12 of them are bowl eligible. Thanks to James Madison getting there. And this is what's fantastic.

I tell you, I really have been thinking about this too much. So Georgia Southern starts the year with a whole bunch of wins, Clay Helton. And what was Clay Helton? He always was a reputation.

He was a nice guy, right? Georgia Southern did in the back half of the schedule, which is give wins away to everyone. You go look at Georgia Southern schedule and you will see that Georgia Southern is to thanks for is the reason why the sunbelt has 12. Count them up 12 man or teams at the conference 12 are going bowling and a lot of that is because Georgia Southern was just handing out wins just to make sure the sunbelt got as many bowl teams as possible. They look 12 getting 12 teams eligible.

That's awesome. It's a great league though. We know it just about everybody in that league. I mean seriously values football, right? So it's it's part of their their culture and identity and it's a fun league to watch as well. All right, so we just need app states run defense to step up because that yeah, the whole year wasn't vintage for them.

It was always a little bit different, right? It's just typically against Troy because Vidal is going to be in the NFL one year. Okay, and I do think that Troy is such a good defensive team that they're going to be able to do a little bit to neutralize Agalar in the offense. And so then you go to the other side if apps going to be able to hang in this game and certainly, you know, the game is at Troy and the betting line is at the touchdown apps got a shot. But to me having a shot has to do with stopping the run. If you see at be able to do that early, then I like their chances to be frisky late.

I like it. I like that we instant analysis on the app state by the way, we're we're going to focus on that game tomorrow in the two o'clock hour. We have we have something planned for that chip Patterson from cover3 podcast cbsports.com is with us. All right, so Boo Corrigan and the college football playoff committee's final fake rankings came out yesterday and not a surprise, Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State. I think that's the proper order based on Georgia, Michigan being as dominant as they have looked and Washington probably playing the better schedule of anybody next and then Florida State. Is there a scenario chip Patterson where Florida State wins over Louisville, but doesn't stay in the top four.

I don't think so. I think there are scenarios where there is a conference champion who might be sitting at number five and be furious at the idea that Florida State is ahead of them. I think there's a scenario where 12 and one Texas might be sitting there at number five furious that Florida State which has no wins as good as Alabama beating Alabama in Bryant Denny Stadium.

I think that that would be so that is scenario to on the chart scenario to is Michigan over Iowa Florida State over Louisville, Georgia over Alabama, Texas over Oklahoma State Washington over Oregon scenario to I think Florida State is number for Texas is number five. I'll let you see this right there. I have every single scenario and I've got another card which lets me know what the final group is going to be explain what show it again. Just show it show me that again because I want because it's for the most part.

This is radio even though chip is on video with me. He has a chart. This is better than any two-point conversion chart or when to call your timeout before the two-minute warning chart in the NFL. He's got a chart of every scenario where how teams will be ranked. So Florida State wins nothing to worry about this.

That is what I believe. I believe that we will not see that we will not see a 13-0 Florida State team be left out of the college football playoff. You know, they they don't have most deserving anywhere in their language and that was one thing that they have discussed but they do have conference championships.

They do have win-loss record. And if you are a 13-0 power conference champion, then I think I think that that's where that's where the Seminoles have to hang their hat. The thing that's like so the reason why I sat down to do this and I was like, all right, if we assume that Michigan will beat Iowa, okay, 23 and a half point favorites. We've watched Iowa all season.

We've watched Michigan all season. We're down to only 16 combinations, right? Flip a coin like so let's game out all 16 combinations had to get my car inspected this week. So yeah, I'm ready all 16 scenarios. I can tell you what the final rankings are going to be. This is what was really illuminating all the chaos ones because I also ranked them by cleanest scenarios to messiest scenarios. All the messy ones.

It's real simple. If Alabama beats Georgia and Florida State beats Louisville. So just take those like, hey, could you imagine Alabama beat in Georgia? Yeah, maybe you know, it's Alabama, Georgia. Could you see Florida State beat in Louisville?

Yeah. I mean, do you trust Louisville in this spot? No, if those two things happen hearts are being broken like it is that simple all it takes for chaos or the closest thing to chaos is the combination of Alabama beating Georgia at 4 p.m. on CBS streaming on Paramount Plus and then Florida State beating Louisville to claim the Seminoles first ACC championship since 2014. If those two things happen, then there is going to be a one loss conference champion left out or the two time reigning champion Georgia Bulldogs at 12 and one left out. And and that's real.

That's real chaos. How will it how will that play out? Georgia loses to Alabama? Let's call it a classic. Let's say it's double overtime. It's 34 31 in double OT. How does that play out?

I mean, that's where it gets really because there there are scenarios where Alabama and Georgia could both be left out. Like that is stop. I'm just I'm just stop.

What do you have? Follow me here. We go to scenario six on this scenario. Six is 13 and oh, Michigan. You're in. Yeah. 13 and oh, Washington. You're in 13 and oh, Florida State.

You're in 12 and one Texas, which has a head to head win against Alabama right slot ahead of 12 and one Alabama, which slots ahead of 12 and one Georgia. Huh? I know. I know. Chaos like like mind blowing chaos. Can you explain to me?

I just project. Greg Sankey's reaction to that. Oh, the four best teams, you know, it. There's also on the flip side. If Alabama beats Georgia, but Oklahoma State beats Texas, that's two sec teams in. They both make it.

Wait, what? Texas just just one Oklahoma State beat. How would we get to sec teams in if Alabama beats Georgia, right? And Oklahoma State beats Texas. You get in both Alabama and Georgia into the three and four spots.

So which of the other? I know I'm confused. Washington, Florida State, Michigan are all undefeated. You know, 13 and oh, Michigan, 12 and one. Oh, and Louisville beats Florida State.

Okay, there you go. 13 and oh, Michigan, 12 and one Oregon, 12 and one Alabama, 12 and one Georgia. My brain hurt for a moment there. I'm like, wait a second. I have three undefeated teams and two sec teams with one loss.

How are we going to get them both in? But look, I am here for the chaos. A hundred percent here for the chaos.

Look, you did all that work. You got to be ready for the chaos. If that's what it is, I would rather be prepared. How long does it take to get your car inspected these days? It's ridiculous.

Unless you just you have a supercomputer as a brain. That's Chip Patterson coming through podcast joining us here as he does every Wednesday. All right, to where NC State falls into this because I was looking at this yesterday. And I remembered what the AC what the Orange Bowl said. They were going to take the highest ranked in the college football playoff ACC school, assuming Florida State won. They would take the highest ranked ACC school to replace FSU in the Orange Bowl. And there was a scenario going into last night where, assuming Louisville is going to lose again, that they might fall below NC State and the Wolfpack, who had an amazing finish and are simply a fun watch at this point, could get the Orange Bowl.

But I don't think that's going to happen now based on what we saw last night. If what we saw last night means anything, I just don't think we're going to bridge the gap between 14 where Louisville is and 19 where NC State is. The selection committee did not think so highly of Kentucky to put Kentucky into the top 25 after beating Louisville at Louisville.

So that is now categorized as a bad loss. And that bad loss dropped Louisville down to 14 for spot and I do four spots and I do not think that losing to Florida State would be a bad loss. So I'm there's just, there's too much distance for for Louisville to travel and guess what, you know what else that pesky little head to head win right now that that matters to absolutely when they are checked out and they have gone there like mentally exhausted from having to make those decisions in the top six tomorrow on Sunday morning and they're putting together the end the fact that Louisville has a head to head result and in the scenario you're painting they both have the same number of losses Louisville will still be ahead of the Wolfpack.

I agree. I was wondering though if state might get a little bit more of a bump because of how impressive their win was over North Carolina and then maybe Louisville would get dropped a little bit more because of really how, how much of their way Kentucky had with them at Louisville. That's the most disturbing thing about that 3831 with a kickoff return touchdown Louisville's defense has been bad for three weeks in a row. That's the reason why I think Florida State even with the backup quarterback has a decent chance to win that game.

But look, man, that line is two and a half. That is a coin flip game between two really good game planners and play callers in Orville and Jeff Brahm. It is going to be the battle of who can scheme it open for their average quarterback and hit on it because I think Jack Plummer is Jag Plummer Jag stands for just a guy guy. Yeah, and I think Tate Rhoda maker has a chance to make history for Florida State forever. Bless his heart chip Patterson is joining us who is the ACC coach of the year in your mind. But I didn't get asked to vote at the end of your award, so I didn't make the decision myself. Nor did I.

And they know better than to ask me to vote on these things anyway. I think it's Norvell. I mean, look, I understand it's easy to go for the guy who went 12-0. But they went 12-0. He had to rebuild. I mean, that roster was completely rebuilt.

All right, here's the problem. There's actually a couple of good examples even beyond the 12-0. If you're going to like, I always love the Mike Krzyzewski never got coach of the year. It's preposterous. Well, like we shouldn't like this one since like 2001 or 2001.

Yeah, it was the last one. I think you've got a good case for both of the coaches in the ACC championship game. I think you've got a great case for Dave Doran.

Correct. I think you've got a great case for the Brents. Either one of them. Brent Key or Brent Pry. Yeah, I don't know about Brent Pry.

Brent Key definitely. Virginia Tech was dead. They were 1-3 with a loss to Marshall.

They were done. And to be able to rally back, go 5-3 in conference play. I mean, and Brent Key, Georgia Tech would have won the Coastal. Again, I think Georgia Tech has a better case.

In the old days. I make a better case for Georgia Tech than Key than Pry. I actually make a case for Mike Elko too for coach of the year in the ACC.

I understand they went 4-4. But none of those cases are as good as the first three coaches you mentioned. Norvell, Brom, Doran. So to me, without like really picking nits, if we were ranking them, then yeah, we could have a debate over the Brents. You know, probably not Mario Cristobal. Probably not Mac Brown. No.

But you know, to me, there are three guys. And I think Norvell is going to get it. I think Peyton Wilson is going to be the Defensive Player of the Year. He was the only player who got 184 votes.

I assume that is unanimous. That he was a unanimous first team All-ACC linebacker. I could make an argument that he's the Player of the Year too, but I don't think he'll get it. I think that will go to probably Jordan Travis, who had a very good year.

I'm not even going to argue about that. Which of the four unbeaten teams is in, I guess this is an easy one because the answer is probably Georgia. But which of the four unbeaten teams is it?

No, maybe it's not. It wouldn't be Georgia is in the most trouble this weekend. It's Washington and there's no question about it.

It's Washington and it's twofold why it's Washington. Number one, I know their strength of schedule isn't great. But when I've got a 12 game data set of Oregon, just mercilessly kicking tail all over the place like that is a team that is playing especially the way they finished with the Oregon State win. Remember, that was a revenge game, like a gut check revenge game. Oregon State ran inside zone 25 times in the second half, ran it down their throat and beat the Ducks last year costing Dan Lanning and his team a shot at the Pac-12 title. And they came in fired up and they said, you're not going to gain another yard. Squeeze the life out of so incredibly impressed with Washington.

That is the one side of it. The second side is that whether it's injury, whether it's like sickness, because I've heard the there's a little bit of like a flu going through it. Michael Pennix just ain't right, because here's the way it's gone for Michael Pennix. Michael Pennix in the month of September, 16 touchdowns, two interceptions, 11.2 yards per attempt, passer rating of 196, completion percentage of 74.7.

Holy cow, this guy is taking over the sport. Yeah, completion percentage from and this is by month starting in September, I said 74.7, 60.3 October, 57.9 in November, yards per attempt, 11.2 in September, drops to 8.2 in October, 7.2 in November. Passer rating drops every single month.

The yards per game drops every single month. He's just not right. Or maybe the competition just got better. My eyes say he's not right.

Okay, your eyes might be right, but two things can be true. The schedule got markedly tougher for Washington because their schedule was back like a lot of leagues. Their schedules are back loaded.

So when the competition gets tougher, then it's just stands to reason that all of those things are going to be more difficult. I'm not saying you're wrong because the Chipolitics are probably undefeated. I mean, they played Arizona and Oregon in September and October. But Arizona wasn't that then, were they? Yeah, they were. Was Arizona really good then? Yeah, Arizona just kind of show up. No, no, no. Listen, this is, you know, they played Arizona in September, they played Oregon in October.

I think that he should have been better over the last stretch of the season. So you're saying that my Michael Pennix plus 1800 Heisman Trophy ticket is not a good one. No, I don't.

I mean, here's what he's got. Because, look, I believe that we are hanging a college football playoff bid in the air in Allegiant Stadium. The winner of that game should. There is like a very narrow path where 12 and 1 Oregon might get screwed, essentially. Let me ask this question. It'll be the last thing I ask you, Chip Patterson, before we say goodbye. Oregon wins, Alabama wins.

Now give me your four. OK, so Oregon and Alabama, you know, there's lots of scenarios. I understand.

I totally understand. That are the chaos scenarios. OK, so we're going to be calling up scenario five. That one that one could get tricky.

OK, listen to this. 13 and 0 Michigan, 13 and 0 Florida State, 12 and 1 Texas, 12 and 1 Alabama, Oregon and Georgia both left out. Also, scenario seven. That was what else you mentioned. 13 and 0 Michigan, 13 and 0 Florida State, 12 and 1 Alabama and then either 12 and 1 Georgia, 12 and 1 Oregon.

Those are the two. Those are the two spots that could really mess up Oregon, Oregon. The rooting. Let me get up my rooting interest chart. Rooting interests for the Oregon Ducks, Georgia over Alabama, Louisville over Florida State. You get Alabama and Florida State out the paint. Win the Pac-12 title. It's all you. I trust your car past inspection.

Jim Patterson. Cover three podcast. I appreciate it, man. I'll talk to you later.

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Whisper: medium.en / 2023-11-29 18:06:46 / 2023-11-29 18:15:19 / 9

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