Time to break down where college football conferences are currently, midway through the season.

As always, on Wednesdays, we talk college football with Chip Patterson, Cover Three Podcast, CBSSports.com, my friend. So let me start this way. I saw a great question asked on College Game Day that the first, as soon as I saw it, I thought, I'm going to ask Chip that. Ooh.

Yes. So I don't watch College Game Day, not because I'm against it in any way. We just have our own CBS Sports HQ 11 a.m. pregame. So I have not heard this question. You're catching me cold.

Let's go. I also generally do not watch College Game Day. It just so happens I was in and there were no other options because it's the international break and I had no Premier League to distract me. So let me ask the question, which is this. Right now, give me the conference that is most likely to miss the playoff. The Pac-12.

See, across the board on the panel, maybe it's because they were in Seattle for Oregon at Washington. Across the board on the panel, I think you have it's either that or the Big 12. But across the board, they said the ACC.

No. So before the ACC part, let's let's work our way around. It ain't the Big 10. The Big 10 is the most likely conference to get to in the college football playoff.

OK, yes, I would agree. The SEC because our brains are poisoned. And the reason why the Big 12 isn't there is because I think the Big 12 has two. Oklahoma already has the win against Texas.

It has a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. Texas has an opportunity to run the table and has the win against Alabama in its back pocket. If either one of those are the Big 12 champion, you're going to find yourself in the college football playoff.

But while we've got this like great top tier, I mean, shoot, there's six Pac-12 teams in the AP Top 25 right now. I don't I don't see a path where flaws cannot be exposed because Washington is deservedly leading the pack right now. But Washington can get picked off. Washington could get picked off. We just need to look back a couple of weeks ago when Arizona, DAGOM almost did it. Right.

Right. So Oregon's already got a loss. USC already has the loss to Notre Dame. I just think that the path, which includes all these teams playing each other, too, is just more than likely going to produce a two loss conference champion.

What? And if it's a one loss conference champion, they've got a great chance. But of the power conference teams, I do think that the Pac-12, because of how the schedule plays out for all of these teams, where they all have to play each other, probably going to catch a rematch of some sorts in the Pac-12 title game. I could see the Pac-12 getting left out. Washington still has to play at Southern Cal.

They have to play Utah and they have to play at Oregon State, which is not going to be easy because the I think the Achilles on Washington is their defense is not awesome, although it certainly played relatively well against high powered Oregon. But yeah, look, I thought the answer was the Pac-12, but I still. I understand that Texas has the win over Alabama, but you even said you kind of intimated that maybe the SEC isn't what we thought it was. I don't think George has been laying waste to their competition.

Like neither Georgia or Michigan have played anybody outside the league. And they're but they're neither has moved from their spots in the in the in the polls. And I don't know how the playoff poll is going to react. It's going to be the same, probably.

No, no, no, no, no. This is if to use the selection committee's own criteria because they started having me do this on CBS Sports Network on Mondays. Michigan and Georgia would not be top four if they released a poll on Tuesday. Their strength to schedule numbers are just got weak chip.

Listen, this is what I would have it at. And this is using the committee's own criteria and habits like I've been tracking this pretty good feel. So it would be Oklahoma one, Washington to Ohio State three, Florida State four, Oklahoma. Strength of schedule is pretty good, but they have dominated their competition. Their top 10 offense, top 10 defense best wins. Texas on a neutral and Iowa State, which secretly might be the third best team in the Big 12.

That's your second best win. Washington has the Oregon win. Ohio State has the Notre Dame road win. Florida State does not have a win that compares individually to Texas, Oregon or Notre Dame, but has the combo of LSU and Clemson, Michigan. That's both away from home, by the way. Michigan best win. Rutgers, Georgia best win. Kentucky.

Both of those are at home. Now the strength is scheduled. The rest of the way is more difficult. The opportunities, you know, for Michigan and Georgia are going to be there to have more quality wins. But if we were using that committee's what do your wins look like?

What are your strength to schedule numbers? Georgia strength schedule 102. Michigan strength to schedule 113. And Michigan would be ahead of Georgia because, you know, Georgia hasn't done it hasn't dominated. So I guess Michigan has at least done that. So I give the Wolverines the edge there. But right now, if they released a college football playoff selection committee rankings on Tuesday night, after week seven results, there would not be an SEC team in the playoff.

First of all, that makes me laugh because I don't I honestly don't believe it, but I trust you. So I hope you're right. But just by saying it, that's also why they don't release the rankings until Halloween. Until the SEC is ready. Until the until the SEC is said, OK, OK. You know, they really do. They're like they wait for the cocktail party to finish.

They're like, all right, we got to get the cocktail party out of the way. And then, yeah, we've got on the SEC on CBS Game of the Week. That's going to be Alabama, Tennessee.

They really do wait for at least, you know, one quality opponent for for all the title contenders. So is a two loss Alabama still that kind of a win for Texas? Because Alabama hasn't been great. I mean, we all know like the truth of the matter is that there's really not a lot of difference between Alabama and Clemson.

So I don't think there is. I think they're both they're they're both good. And that's as far as it goes. They're they're not they're not I don't think they're upper echelon teams. I don't I mean, who who are Alabama's didn't they just struggle with Arkansas? So I think that Alabama has gotten. All right.

So how about this? Let's play a game. Jane Daniels lighting the world on fire right now for LSU. Twenty two touchdowns to three interceptions, averaging 11 yards per attempt. He is on pace to do statistical things that have not been done since Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray Heisman Trophy winners. He leads the SEC in passer rating.

Do you know who's number two? Oh, we're talking about what Alabama's quarterback? Jalen Milra, because they have switched that offense to his skill set. This Alabama offense has gotten better in recent weeks. Now, his skill set is let's eliminate the intermediate part of the field. OK, swing passes or deep balls. He is a like go up there and just swing for the fences.

And because Alabama does have the athleticism at wide receiver, they're going to either get pass interference or get a catch on a lot of those. And I think Milro has gotten better over the last couple of games. We got better.

Shout out Mark Godfrey. We got better tonight. Got better. I think that I don't I don't want to poopoo Alabama. I think Alabama did it. Yeah, I think Alabama is limited. I think their defense is one of the best in the country.

That's something they haven't. Sounds like you just described Clemson to me. I think Alabama's quarterback play has been more reliable. Like I think Cade Klubnick could whoops this up at Miami. The only path to Miami winning that game is Cade Klubnick turnovers.

And he's he's got to tighten that thing up right now. And I trust Milro more than I trust Cade Klubnick. I think the difference between Alabama and Clemson is that Clemson schedule is more difficult. Again, 24-21 at home against Arkansas.

He's got no wins in the league and is just two and five overall. I'm not I'm not saying Alabama is bad. I know I know how people are going to take that. But if Alabama drops a game to Tennessee or LSU, then I mean, it's they're just they're just not out. They're not the normal Alabama. Now, that doesn't mean Texas's win at in Tuscaloosa isn't still impressive because it is.

Well, it's not a top five win, right? That's what the number beside Alabama's name at the time is not what it's going to be. But Texas in the position where Texas beats Oklahoma, Oklahoma is likely way up there in Alabama, still probably in the top 15. Like that's the thing is Alabama's defense this year is better than Alabama's defense last year. Alabama's offense is worse than it was last year. But it it continues to fall well short of the program standard that we have for the Crimson Tide. But compare it to the rest of college football in the 2023 season. That's still a top 10, top 15 team. Yeah, there's no question like 12 on my bike. My CBS Sports 133 ballot, which is not just Chip Olytics.

I mean, it's opinion factored in, especially for teams at the top. I think I've got them at 12 right now. You have them at 11 right behind the University of North Carolina, which is where I am headed now. So it's really right in front of them, isn't it?

Yes. Don't stub your toe on the coffee table. That is Georgia Tech in Atlanta in a couple of weeks. And then it's right there.

The last three games, home against Duke at Clemson at state. So take two for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. You could show off your skin again. And you know what that means each day as a tick to inhibitor. So take two is the only once daily pill of its kind for adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. Ask your dermatologist about so take two today and learn more at so clearly you dot com.

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It's unknown if so take two has the same risks as jack inhibitors call 1 888 S O T Y K T you to learn more thoughts. This is the great existential crisis for a North Carolina football fan. Tar Heels versus expectations. Unfortunately, expectations has a big edge in the series. I do think there's something to be said for the fact that this team does have some actual maturity as in juniors and seniors have been playing ball for two, three years. They've been a part of falling short of expectations. You know, they understand what it looks like to get really, really high nine and one at the end of the season.

People finally taking you seriously and then bungle the finish. I think last year's finish makes North Carolina better for this mid season stretch. I underestimated what Taz Walker's full return was going to be a big, big, big miss by me because I said everything was with Drake May. I was like Drake May like that's like you throw him in the mix.

That's a luxury. No, no, no, no, no. Like that he could find and wind up being like he's not going to end up being put ahead of Keon Coleman on any all ACC lists. But we're going to be talking about him in that same conversation of elite wide receivers in this conference. What he can do after the catch.

No, he is so interesting. Penn State's going to be playing against Ohio State this weekend. They've got a guy named Dante CFS also from that same Kent State offense last year and CFS has been a disappointment. Walker in one game, I already think is the better pick up for the Tar Heels. Just a really strong job of being able to identify what he's going to be able to do.

And is that translatable? Because he was running past Miami defensive backs that started the season on all ACC lists. And it was it was an impressive performance from Walker. And I do think that he he is worth like a half a game to the Tar Heels, especially when we think about the defenses that they're going to face against Mike Elko and Duke. You know, going up against Miles Jones, you're going up against Al Blades Jr.. You know, when you get into going up against Nate Wiggins at Clemson and Clemson's defense on the road in Death Valley, you have got to have somebody that's special. And Nate McCollum has been very, very good.

And Drake May, we obviously know is special. But man, I, I, I undersold what Walker's return would mean. And I think the Miami the Miami performance was something I took note of. You know, we place bets here every every day at 145. And last week, two weeks ago, I guess now on Friday, I had like three Tez Walker props. I had over one hundred and ten yards receiving. I had I think at least two touchdowns, whatever. Three of them.

I was one week early. Right. Every single one of them hit last week. He's he he takes their offense. They have gone to plaid to quote Spaceballs. I gave the wrong movie out yesterday.

Shouts to the person who who who corrected me on on Twitter. It was Spaceballs, not History of the World. Why I screwed those two up. They different Mel Brooks movie, right?

Both amazing Mel Brooks movies. All right. I guess this will be our final thing real quick. Duke is at Florida State. They're getting it's like thirteen and a half points. If Riley Leonard plays.

Duke wins, right? Not that here's here's if he said he's got to be one hundred percent healthy if he plays. And if he's not one hundred percent healthy, I wouldn't play Florida State defensive coordinator Adam Fuller. I was asked about Riley Leonard this week.

And the very first thing he mentioned was his legs. Yep. You know how like you got to be really concerned about that. If they think that Riley Leonard is not one hundred percent, it won't play. They are going to tee off on Riley Leonard. Ask Cade Club. Nick, what it feels like when Kalen Deloach is coming flying in off the end and you're running back misses a blocking assignment.

No, it's Tatum Bethune. Florida State's defense has not been awesome. OK, like it has not been what you would normally expect. But there are enough dudes that they can tee off in a pass rush situation if they think that Leonard is not a threat to run. I would not play Leonard not only looking out for him and his health, but for competitive reasons, unless he can go do everything that he has done in the biggest games against the best defenses. I think that Duke's defense can do a really good job against Florida State applying pressure to Jordan Travis. But they need Travis to make mistakes, which he has done. He's not a very accurate passer. And if Dwayne Carter is bearing down on him, he might have a whoopsie daisy moment.

And like, you know, just chuck it up. And here comes Duke with a short field. But Duke will need short fields and turnovers to to win this football game, because while they did a fantastic job of manning up against Clemson's wide receivers, Clemson's wide receivers are not Keyon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.

Agreed. That's kind of the matchup point for me. I think Florida State's going to score twenty eight thirty one points just because of like the some of those physicality advantages on the on the perimeter. So how does Duke work its way to get in there as well?

We'll we'll see. I think that's I think turnovers is the only way Florida State gets to that unless Duke's offense is nonexistent. They healthy Riley Leonard Duke's going to win the game without him. Florida State. I don't think Florida State will cover, but I think I think Florida State will win if it's not.

I can't play. Yeah, I'm I think that it would be hilarious. It would be so awesome because you know what happened? Florida State scheduled Duke for homecoming. Oops. You thought that Duke was showing up at the wrong Duke. They got the wrong Duke this week. Ask Maryland, who scheduled Illinois for homecoming last week. How that wound up. Not good. Like I just and I'm kind of like dropping it into existence, like, you know, Duke's never beat Florida State.

It's twenty one zero Knowles. Yep. And you scheduled him for homecoming.

Oops. OK, we'll see. I I'd love it. I would love it.

It would be awesome. Chip Patterson, you're like the ACC out of the college football playoff, except Duke's still in it. OK, Duke's still in it.

And North Carolina and North Carolina is still in it. Yeah. Thank you very much, Chip. Sounds good. You'll be well. It's Chip Patterson here on the Adam Gold Show. I'm going to sell this until until he buys it. I'm going to sell it until he buys it.