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Chip Patterson, CBS Sports/Cover 3 Podcast, joins Adam on this Wednesday to talk college football rankings, conference championships, and some potential scenarios.

The Adam Gold Show / Adam Gold
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November 16, 2022 4:09 pm

Chip Patterson, CBS Sports/Cover 3 Podcast, joins Adam on this Wednesday to talk college football rankings, conference championships, and some potential scenarios.

The Adam Gold Show / Adam Gold

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November 16, 2022 4:09 pm

Chip Patterson, CBS Sports/Cover 3 Podcast, joins Adam on this Wednesday to talk college football rankings, conference championships, and some potential scenarios. What does Carolina need to do to make the playoffs? What would make this process really easy?... If THESE teams decided to flop. Plus, Adam asks a simple question to Chip… What happened to NC State against Boston College?

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It's the Adam Gold Show, I am Adam Gold. Victoria is here, she is the producer of this program, and last night, for the first time in however many years we've been doing this, I watched the college football playoff selection committee's fake bracket reveal, and it was short, so I liked it. We only got two Boo Corrigan questions, and I love the way he answered the question about Southern Cal and LSU, which is to say, he didn't. Let's talk about it.

North Carolina's 13th. Doom, Chip Patterson, my friend,, Cover 3 Podcast. Oh, man, I really wanted to check out your reaction show to the ranking reveal yesterday, but time did not allow for it, so you are going to give me everything you guys talked about last night.

Now, how are you, sir? Well, usually we wait until the full one through 25 goes live, but because of two daggum overtimes, it'll be just yet another member of college football media to be frustrated that that game went to two overtimes. We just said, you know what, we'll go live.

Danny Cannell poured himself a cocktail. We were just sitting there on the air, on YouTube Live, just talking our way through the end of the basketball game and the rankings as they went. So, no, the rankings reaction showed this week did not have the linear approach that we normally have with everything broken down. It was very much a watch party of sorts. It was the first time that I'd watched the actual ranking show in quite a while as I normally just get my one through 25. Got my talking points questions ready before it's ever released and then sort out the resumes and get to breaking it down.

So, you know, a couple of issues that I think you can discuss. And I think one thing that is important is that as somebody who has a platform to talk about college football and who's given the opportunity to discuss it, I do think that we should hold the committee's feet to the fire about decisions that are made outside of the top four, because while they don't matter now, they are not going to be changing their process when the college football playoff expands. They're still going to be using a selection committee and they're still going to be ranking them one through 25 and how they fill those at large bids. Six of them are going to be determined by these rankings. And so I think it is important that we start to establish a standard for the selection committee where some of the decisions, particularly within the top 16 and this this week in particular, I think the top 17, you could say we should be able to judge these teams accordingly. 18 through 25 is where I kind of saw I was like, I don't know, it's kind of a crap shoot. You know, 18 through 33 might all be, you know, kind of interchangeable on some level. So let's instead of just saying it's fake, it's terrible, forget about it, which I understand where you're coming from.

I do think that we should get in the habit of at least holding their feet to the fire on. Okay, so how far do Oregon, UCLA, Ole Miss fall? How does that relate to a North Carolina or a Penn State? Teams that have a one loss for the Tar Heels, two losses for Penn State but are lacking in quality wins. Those other teams like an Ole Miss, an Oregon, a UCLA have quality wins. How did those teams stack up against each other?

Because that is this area of the rankings that will determine at large bids in the future. Chip Patterson,, Cover 3 podcast, you should check that out if you love college football and I know you do because you're listening right now and you love Chip. So check out the Cover 3 podcast.

If I get a chance to see Danny Connell enjoying a cocktail, I'm also there. slash Cover 3, just check out the rankings reaction show. All right, so there's you can make the argument that it's possible that the committee that the ranking shouldn't be 21 through 25 that the ranking should probably just be maybe one through 10 or one through 15. And because I think you and I will agree on this, the difference between a team who is 16th and I don't really know, I'll just use Notre Dame, who's 18th, Notre Dame, who is 18th and a team like, oh, I don't know, Texas, which is not ranked probably isn't anything.

It's just what what's the day and to to give somebody credit for beating Notre Dame or calling that a good loss and not giving a team credit. And we don't know that the committee doesn't because I think last week they said what they said about TCU is that X amount of wins over teams with winning records. So it's clear that they look beyond that, but it's also clear the only the reason why we have a ranking through 25 is so they can give extra importance to those wins, which was important to see Oregon State. If you are a Southern Cal in the top top 25, assuming, of course, they stay there.

So things like that. And the fact is that if Florida State wins a couple more games, I think I have a game before the Florida game. It's Louisiana this week. They are done with their ACC schedule at five and three. They've got Louisiana this week. They've got Florida next week. So if FSU finishes nine and three and with a good win over Florida, that would be a good win. I think we'd all agree then it's not a bad win. Then that reflects well on Clemson.

It helps build other resumes and maybe we shouldn't have anything beyond 15 because there's almost no difference between 15 and maybe even 40. So my understanding is that at the very beginning of the meeting process, I think every committee member fills out a ballot and any team that is on multiple ballots gets thrown into a pool. And that pool, I would assume, is probably about 32 teams, right? You know, it's not going to be just if everybody fills out a ballot of 25, I would like to know who the other teams, the others receiving votes, if you will. The teams on the outside looking in, the ones who just missed the cut. I think that that would be an informative change to the process because that would allow us to know, okay, how far is Coastal Carolina from being in there? How far did Texas fall?

Illinois is seven and three. How far are they from making the cut? And of course, NC State, you know your competition as you hang on right there at number 24. Those teams around the cut line, I would like to see who else was in the debate for those spots at the end. It would actually make me feel more confident in the process in terms of not feeling like they're just reverse engineering the back end to help the top. Did that surprise you?

I really don't mean to start at the bottom of the top 25 because I want to get up to the top. Did NC State at number 24 surprise you? One hundred percent. I was shocked. Shocked. And to me, this is sort of the reverse engineering and I know you guys have talked about it.

I've talked about it on the show. I think they almost work backwards at times and I'm not saying they do this intentionally, but I'm saying if it's close, all right, let's leave NC State there. It helps Clemson. And if NC State were to win at North Carolina, I mean North Carolina is not going to fall too far. I mean they're not going to fall out of the top 25. So when Clemson goes and beats North Carolina, again I'm just assuming here, now you've got NC State's in the rankings, Carolina's in the rankings, Notre Dame, Florida State. Now all of a sudden Clemson's got three ranked wins. So I do think that was very surprising, especially based on how they lost to Boston College.

Well, their strength to schedule is middling. Just in terms of the overall record of their opponents, it is currently ranked number 57 in the country, literally 131 FBS team. Florida State is a good win in the eyes of the selection committee. Wake Forest has an over 500 record, but you know, you look, UConn is a good win for the NC State Wolfpack right now.

That's where we're at right now. UConn is a good win for Michigan too. It's a good win for Michigan too. But so, you know, three losses, that's automatically going to give you three losses and one of them coming against a team that the committee likes in Florida State. That is going to give you a move to the front of the pack among the three loss teams. And the one statistic, as I've said, you're a power five team. The one statistic that matters the most to this committee is your loss column. And three is a good number to at least get consideration for top five spot.

But I was surprised. I mentioned Coastal Carolina, which is just nine and one. Texas, which is six and four.

Illinois, which is also seven and three. NC State has the better win than anything those other teams can say. Fornelli must have been so mad that State was in and Illinois was not.

He was actually, I think because again, they revealed it reversed. But yeah, to me, if I was speaking to an NC State fan and you know, I have been having some conversations with some this week. I think that they understand that this is not about where you're sitting in the college football playoff right now. It's about the state of this roster. It's about the state of this team. It's about Louisville coming up this weekend where you're going to be an underdog. It's about going up against North Carolina where you're going to be an underdog and the chance that a season that could have been breaking towards nine and three, ten and two might finish seven and five.

What does this like? You don't get to hang banners for being number twenty four on November fifteen. So are they like their status seems a little flimsy. You couldn't lose that game. You couldn't lose to Boston College. And there's a ripple effect as it pertains to whether it's North Carolina or Clemson if you do finish seven and five. But for NC State, forget about all that other stuff. You can't lose to Boston College. All right, let me get a couple of things in before we break. And on the other side, we're going to talk about North Carolina and some other teams that are still fringy in the mix for the playoff.

Because I think, I mean, they need a lot of help. But North Carolina, I believe with one loss, is not out of it. The top five did not change. But the top five has to change in the next two Tuesdays. Because two Saturdays from now, actually, yeah, well, however many it is, eleven days from now, Ohio State and Michigan are going to play each other. And they can't both win. Only one of them can win. But they can both make the playoff. They can both make the playoff, although I think it's kind of, well, it's not unlikely.

It's possible. But like for North Carolina, Michigan would need, or Ohio State, maybe Ohio State less, Michigan would definitely need some help to get in. Give me your thoughts on TCU. TCU is in and we know if they go undefeated. Can they lose one of these games? Could they lose in the Big 12 title game and still get in?

There is a path where if TCU, I believe that Baylor could still make the Big 12 title game. And the reason why I wanted to bring that up is because the committee has done this thing called like avenging the loss. So remember, Auburn defeated then number one Georgia in 2017. Georgia then went on to beat Auburn in the SEC Championship game. And one thing that we heard from the committee was, well, they lost to Auburn, but then they turned around and beat them.

Right. So it's kind of like, would they lose at Baylor this weekend on the road? Baylor's already got three losses in conference play. I don't know if they can make it in. And they lost to Kansas State.

I don't know. It's tough. Like losing in the Big 12 championship game, and then being on a Saturday, and then being named to the college football playoff on a Sunday.

That doesn't, it doesn't seem likely. That's fair, even though. Even though Notre Dame did, I think that you'd be sort of trapped in the moment. And the Horn frogs haven't had a lot going for them. I think that TCU had an argument to be ahead of Michigan if we are just taking resume into consideration.

But the team sheet also includes stats about your offense and your defense. And Michigan is elite on both sides of the ball. Statistically, TCU elite offensively, not elite defensively, even though the defense definitely lived up. They far exceeded any expectations going into Austin against the Longhorns. They gave up three points. The defense gave up three points against Texas.

The other was, I think, a defensive touchdown for the Longhorns. If Georgia doesn't lose to Georgia Tech, that's the only game they have left, I believe, between now and the SEC championship game. Are you overlooking Kentucky?

Oh, they play Kentucky this week? Okay. Live, 3.30 p.m. Eastern Time on CBS.

Stream on Paramount. I apologize. I apologize to Aga. A predator that lies in waiting.

I've done voiceover hype videos. As long as Georgia doesn't lose these in either of these two games. They're in, right? They don't have to win the SEC championship game. They're in, correct?

Yeah. So, Georgia's in. Let's say Ohio State doesn't lose another game. Again, I don't think the SEC West champion is all that good.

I mean, for all we know. All of them LSU. No, I'm not talking about the Big Ten West champion. Ohio State, Michigan winner versus whoever comes out of the West.

It's not that good a team. Probably won't be a ranked team. Maybe it'll be Illinois.

I don't know. There's four teams tied at four and three right now in the Big Ten West. So, whoever comes out of there probably just fodder for the Ohio State, Michigan winner.

So, two. Georgia, Ohio State. If TCU is undefeated, is the fourth team ultimately. It's either Tennessee, the Big Ten runner up. The Big Ten East runner up. The ACC champ if it's a one loss, Clemson or North Carolina. And the Pac-12 champ if it's Southern Cal.

Yeah. So, of those four, who has the best chance? I know what I would say.

What would you say? Right now, of those four, USC has the best chance. If USC only has one single loss, if USC is a conference champion, in doing so, they would have defeated UCLA this weekend.

Right. Would have defeated Notre Dame in the regular season finale. Another team the committee likes. You would have beaten a quality opponent in the Pac-12 championship game where they do not have divisions this year. And then they would go into the Utah game and they'd start to pick it apart. And they would say it was on the road in Salt Lake City. Utah won on a walk-off two-point conversion. Right.

What is not quality about that entire body of work? Of those teams and scenarios that you presented, I think USC at 12-1, Pac-12 champion would get the nod. Even though that wasn't my answer, all of this body of work would be coming the last three weeks, which is fine. It all counts. Even if Oregon State falls out of the top 25, and so that game, not that it doesn't count, but that it's less impactful. And I guess it would matter who you would play, obviously, in the conference championship game. And hopefully, if not a repeat, you get a little bit less love if you beat a team twice.

I was a committee member. I would value it more. If you beat a team twice?

A hundred percent. I go back to the Big 12 coaches who said that the thing about the round robin schedule, when they first brought back the Big 12 championship game in 2012, Big 12 coaches were like, it's brutal. It was when Lincoln Riley was at Oklahoma. They said, you give Lincoln one crack at your defense, you might be able to trick him. Two times, you don't have a chance. And we're talking about Lincoln Riley here, too.

Same coach. My only counter to that is, how do you overlook Tennessee with a win at LSU, a convincing win at LSU, and the win over Alabama? Even though it was a bonkers pinball type game, and they won it late, how do you overlook the strength of those two wins? And the fact is that they had to play Georgia, and they were clearly second best, but nobody else on this list really played Georgia. The original document of the selection committee and how they would pick teams listed conference champions as one of the determining factors for how they were going to rank them. So if you're going to live by that, then a 12-1 USC that, like you mentioned, has all of its quality wins at the end of the season. Conference championship could be the tiebreaker against what would be an 11-1 Tennessee team.

All right. We'll come back. We'll talk about North Carolina's chances.

We'll talk a little football as well. And also, LSU is sixth, and I find this whole thing fascinating, and I will not be surprised. Let's just start with North Carolina here for a second, because there are people who immediately go, they haven't played anybody, blah, blah.

Like, I'm not even arguing that. I'm not trying to make their schedule out to be something that it's not. So they have all the challenges. They need more help than just about everybody else if they are to go 12-1. But by the same token, if they are 12-1 and the one loss is to No. 14 Notre Dame, no matter how dominant it was, and they have the win over Clemson and an ACC championship, they would need some help. They might need another loss somewhere by Michigan or Tennessee, or maybe not.

I don't know. They certainly wouldn't be ahead of Southern Cal at 12-1. But at least they would have a chance, and they certainly would be part of the mix for the New Year's Day Bowls. Oh, listen, as the ACC champion, if there's no... Well, no, they go to the Orange Bowl automatically. But even at 11-2, they have a good chance at a New Year's Day Bowl, no? Got to finish in the top 12.

Wait, 11-2 would say that they lose, like... Oh, so you have to be in the top 12 to be in either Cotton... Yeah, there's rules in terms of who's going to be... The champion from the ACC would go to the Orange Bowl, and then to be able to make the cut for those other bowl games, you're going to be fighting for a few spots. North Carolina might not be in the top 12 at that point. Yeah, and we've got an LSU hanging out there. We've got Alabama hanging out there. If we are going to be painting these scenarios where some of these other teams lose, those other teams are then going to become hot commodities for some of those at-large spots in the New Year's Six. So when LSU loses to Georgia by four touchdowns, what happens to LSU in the ranking?

Oh, I mean, listen, they will not fall that far. LSU is still going to have a chance to go and play. LSU against UCF in the Cotton Bowl smells right, you know?

Who cares if they got three losses? They were the SEC West champs, Adam. They beat Alabama.

It's amazing. They beat Ole Miss. They did. So the starting point for all of this is that both the Pac-12 and the Big 12 produce a conference champion that has two losses. That is where the starting point needs to be for North Carolina to make the college football playoff, because then we start to get into debates about North Carolina against potentially a one-loss non-conference champion from the Big Ten, Ohio State or Michigan, a one-loss non-conference champion from the SEC being Tennessee. Now, what would make it really easy? Illinois goes and beats Michigan this weekend, right?

Or what would make it really easy? Tennessee stubs its toe against Vanderbilt, which shout out to the doors, first SEC win since 2019. Give it up for the Vanderbilt Commodores. Love you, Barton Simmons.

He's getting good work done there. But that's that's kind of where the whole picture starts to get a little dicey. It starts with the Pac-12 champion and the Big 12 champion have two losses, which is possible. Like USC could show up in the Pac-12 championship game with one loss, looking ready to go and then lose. And then lose.

Absolutely. I mean, they lose to Oregon. TCU, same thing.

You could show up. And just like I said on the earlier in our conversation, it's really hard to beat a team twice. This ECU team, Max Duggan, has regressed a little bit. The defense did a great job against Texas, but on the whole, it has not been elite. So you would go into conference championship Saturday. And this is honestly what would make it fun for a North Carolina fan. As long as they take care of business against Georgia Tech and as long as they beat NC State, then you go into that conference championship Saturday, literally watching all the other action with all of your rooting interest determined. And you show up at Bank of America Stadium basically knowing what the deal is. Big 12 will be earlier in the day.

Pac-12 will be on Friday. You will know at kickoff of Clemson, North Carolina, whether or not there's a shot to go make the college football playoff or whether you're playing for the Orange Bowl, which for either scenario is an ACC championship for the North Carolina football program in the modern era, in the modern ACC, would be remarkable. Especially in this type of a year where we went into the season thinking everything was about the Wolfpack, would make it even better for them. It's sort of like, man, you just lived the dream in basketball doing that to Mike Krzyzewski and Duke in his final year. Imagine winning an ACC championship in the season that was supposed to be the year of the Wolf. We're speaking about that. This has nothing to do with the playoff, although NC State is 24th.

What happened on Saturday at Carter-Finley Stadium? There should be a true diagnosis. But as someone who admitted on the instant reaction podcast over the weekend late into the night, I admitted I hadn't looked. I look at statistics a lot. I do my judgments. I had not looked at a power ratings in like three weeks.

I've just been going on vibes for all these years. I know where these teams stack up. I know strengths and weaknesses. I know personnel developments. But at the very beginning of the season, I'm really crunching the Vegas ratings.

And how many points better are you than the average team? No, all that's in the trashcan at this point of the season. And I just can't help but again, just having that game on the third screen, especially as things got a little bit hairy. I just can't help but think that they were they were going to be able to let their defense go win it, that they had done enough. Yeah. And that's that is not that that ended up biting them. I said this. I was on with the Mac attack this morning.

I jumped on their show with them for a few minutes today. And that was my take on it is that they got the 14 point lead. They went through him like poop through a goose on their first two drives. And they basically felt like, all right, we got this. And I thought they'd kind of approached the rest of the game.

I mean, it's probably not true. It's just my perception because I'm sure they're not thinking that we've done enough. But they kind of approached the rest of the game with like, you know, as long as long we don't do something stupid.

We've got this in the bag. And they didn't put enough points on the scoreboard for that to be true. They got hosed by a bad call, but it shouldn't come down to it.

The other thing is so frustrating is like literally that flag stays in the pocket. And they wouldn't get Asian around this team. We still might be concerned about the current status of the roster. Hundred percent. But the conversation around the team would be very, very different.

Whoa. Glad they escaped that one. Going to be tough. It's still be underdogs at Louisville this weekend. And we'd say, all right, let's see what they've got. But to have that loss go that way.

I've heard it be invoked a lot. That was at the one of the most disappointing home losses since Jamie Newman as a backup lead. Wake Forest.

I remember eight when the Wolfpack had a lot to play for. Wake Forest did not have as much to play for. And the Demon Deacons went in and stole a victory in Carter Finley. Boston College had seven losses.

Its season was done. They're down to their backup quarterback and a pizza man as an offensive lineman. That was a program and a team that has been literally bleeding out players all season long. And they I mean, I guess you'd say like credit to Jeff Halfley for taking a team that had already sustained seven losses and getting them fired up. And whatever he told them at halftime got them to come out and play the second half with what the kind of fire that they needed to be able to go and get the win. We've always known that Zay Flowers is an elite wide receiver.

We've known that they have good wide receivers. But man, that's a that is a disappointing defeat for the NC State Wolfpack by a near the narrowest of margins. But still, man, you can't you just need to be able to step on the throat and just wasn't wasn't there for the Wolfpack on Saturday. Four minute offense should not be treated like a two minute offense.

And that's what they did. You know, they you have to pick up first downs. Don't just try to bleed the clock.

You have to. The only way to bleed the clock in a four minute offense is especially when the other team has three timeouts. You have to be able to pick up first downs. And they got the first one kind of easy. And then they thought maybe they thought it was going to be easy.

And then they just basically ran it into the line three times. And that was that. Chip Patterson, go put a blazer on. You're going to be on CBS Sports HQ in 12 minutes. Thank you. Sounds good. You'll be well. You got it. Chip Patterson. Always on Wednesdays. Always fun.
Whisper: medium.en / 2022-11-16 18:25:55 / 2022-11-16 18:36:42 / 11

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