The Power of Giving

In Matthew 6 21, Jesus gives a timeless financial and spiritual principle, where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. I am Rob West. It's a simple concept and proven true countless times, but why is it true?

The answer may surprise and challenge you. We'll unpack it today, and then it's on to your calls at 800-525-7000. That's 800-525-7000. This is Faith and Finance Live, biblical wisdom for your financial journey. Well first of all, we can all agree that God's Word has power. Isaiah 55 11 tells us, So shall my word be that goes out from my mouth. It shall not return to me empty, but it shall accomplish that which I purpose, and shall succeed in the thing for which I sent it.

The Holy Spirit is the author of God's Word, and He gives it, first and foremost, the power to save, but to accomplish any and all the things that God shall purpose. So that brings us back to Matthew 6 21, where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. That is a truth that has both a positive and negative connotation. The negative is, if you spend the resources God gives you on ungodly things, your heart will follow after those things. In the positive sense, then, the verse tells us that if we use God's resources in righteous and godly ways, our heart will naturally follow after those things. You can also look at the verse in two other ways. Is Jesus saying that the emotion comes before the act or after? Does the heart follow the treasure, or does the treasure follow the heart? And why is that important?

Well, it's important because all of this is leading up to something we talk about a lot here on the program, the power of money. You see, money has power, and that's what Jesus is really saying, and probably why there are over 2300 verses in the Bible dealing with money and possessions. You may not want to put your treasure, and it's not really yours by the way, on godly things such as giving to your church. Maybe that's very difficult for you to do.

If so, Matthew 6 21 should give you hope and encouragement. It says you can change your attitude by changing your actions. Now, how exactly does that work, especially if money has so much power over our lives? Well, money has power, but so does God's Word, and so does giving. In fact, giving has a very specific power. It has the power to break money's control over us.

That might seem counterintuitive, but it's true. The late Pastor Charles Stanley liked to say that we need to hold money with an open hand, because if we close our fist around it, it takes control of our thinking and our behavior. Financial teacher and author Ron Blue says, quoting now, It's not that my heart is where I put my treasure. It's that where I put my treasure, there is where my heart will go.

The heart follows the treasure, not the other way around. Jesus wants me to treasure him and a relationship with him, and I can't if money or mammon is my God. Jesus says a lot about money in the Gospels, most of it warning us about its power.

A little further in Matthew 6 and verse 24, he says, We must make a choice. No one can serve two masters, for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he'll be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and money. Note that Jesus doesn't say it's difficult to serve God and money. He says it's impossible to serve God and money. He's saying you have to make a choice, God or money.

In 1 Timothy 6 10, Paul tells us what happens when we make the wrong choice. He writes, For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people eager for money have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs. If you doubt that's the case, consider that loving money more than God is really idolatry.

It's no different than the Israelites worshipping a golden calf. Now, to be clear, there's nothing wrong with acquiring wealth and acquiring more than you need. If the Lord didn't allow that, we wouldn't have anything to give. Money is not the root of evil.

The love of money is. That's what Jesus is saying in Matthew 19 23 and 24. It reads, Truly, I tell you, it is hard for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of heaven. Again, I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.

A bit of hyperbole there, perhaps, to make a point. If you love riches, it will be difficult to enter heaven because you're choosing money over God. The only way to break the power that money has over you is to give generously to God's kingdom.

I hope this encourages you to be a generous giver, starting with your local church and then expanding to other ministries as you're able. All right, your calls are next, 800-525-7000. This is Faith and Finance Live. We'll be right back. Great to have you with us today on Faith and Finance Live. I'm Rob West.

We're delighted you're along with us today. We'd love to take your calls and questions, and we've got some lines open. The number to call, 800-525-7000. That's 800-525-7000. Let's dive in today.

We're going to go to Cleveland, Ohio first, to the DRF. Hi, Sharon. Go right ahead.

Hi. I'm looking for the way to transfer property to a family member. Now, I have it already in my will, but I want to do it now while I'm living.

Can you give me the particulars of that? I'd be happy to, but let me just back up for a second and make sure that that is, in fact, the best way for you to go. What are you trying to accomplish by transferring this to them now? Well, because it'll be property that they'll be living in, and I just want to turn it on over to them so that they can do whatever they can do personally. Okay.

Yeah, very good. The only thing to consider is that they will, by you gifting this to them, and that's essentially what's going to happen. You're essentially making a gift to them of the amount, the value of the property, and that's not taxable. That'll just be applied against your lifetime gift exclusion of $12 million. But once they receive that, their cost basis, so what determines how much capital gains they will pay, they will retain your original cost basis. So whatever you paid for it is what's going to be determined when they sell it, is what's going to determine the taxes that are due on any profit, capital gains. If they were to inherit it after your death, that wouldn't be the case. That cost basis would step up to the market value as of the date of death.

But to your point, if you're just wanting to get rid of it, let them have it, control it, borrow against it, do whatever they want, then you would need to convey that deed. I just wanted you to understand the implications of the capital gains. Does that make sense? Yes. Okay.

All right. So then the next step is that quitclaim deed form must be in writing in order to be recognized. It's a legal document. It requires the legal description of the property, the county, where the property is located, the date of the transfer, the name, just all the pertinent details that has to be signed by the grantor, which is you, and may or may not need to be signed by the person receiving the property. It's usually notarized and in many states it has to be filed with the county clerk and the county where the property resides. There are state specific issues that you just need to be aware of. So what I would generally recommend, although you can find a quitclaim deed online and do it, you know, by your, you know, on your own, I just like with these kinds of things. I mean, this is a major transaction. You want to get it right. We don't want any discrepancies or questions about it.

I like the idea of you contacting a local real estate attorney in the state where this property resides and just have that person draft the quitclaim deed, make sure that it's done properly and in accordance with the state regulations and then properly documented and recorded in the county deeds office so that everything's done, you know, the way it should be. Again, you can do it yourself, but I just like the idea of you using an attorney. Okay.

Let's do one other thing. So that's the best way. Well, not the best way, but those are the two ways that I can do it.

I guess I think that that clears up everything. I just wanted to make sure that I can do it and do it properly. I will need the deed, right? What other document will I need other than the deed?

Well, if all you're doing is basically this, I mean, this is very simple. You're just transferring the property to them. So you're on the deed currently, therefore you're the owner or the grantor. You're conveying this interest in this property to them. The quitclaim deed will do that and will essentially release you from any ownership of that. Transfer that to the new owner, the recipient of this property, which will be recorded in the county records office. The only additional thing you'd need to do would be to let your CPA know so that he or she can file a gift tax form.

It's form seven Oh nine that just lets the IRS know that you've made this gift to this person who received that property as the new owner. And again, that's not going to be taxable. It will just eat away at your lifetime gift exemption that the the IRS allows of more than 12 million dollars.

So unless you plan to give away 12 million dollars worth of property and assets, then you don't have anything to worry about. But you do need to file that as a part of your tax return for this year. Oh, okay. All right. Wonderful.

Now I am retired and they do they have a contribution amount that you have to do when you're 71 or 72. Yeah, are you talking about the required minimum distribution? Yes, yes. Yes. And go ahead.

What was the rest of that question? Wanted to know whether or not those two would be the same or would it be anything that I could, you know, combine? No, no, it's not. They're two separate things. It's entirely different. So you're making a gift that's different than the amount that you would be required to take out, you know, in order to satisfy a required minimum from a retirement account.

That would be different. Now, keep in mind that the ages did change with Secure Act 2.0. So the the required minimum age was increased to 72 through the end of 22. And then it was increased to 73 for those turning 72 this year in 2023.

So you just need to make sure you know based on your age and then the latest law, which is the Secure Act 2.0, what is the year that you need to begin taking those required minimums? But when you do, those apply to retirement plans, traditional IRAs, 401ks, 403Bs, SEP IRAs, things like that. But that would not apply to this gift of this property. OK, wonderful. All right. Thank you for your call, Sharon. I appreciate it. I'm delighted. Thank you for calling today. May the Lord bless you.

To Brookfield, Ohio. Hi, Michael. Go ahead. Hi. First time caller, longtime listener. I really enjoy your show.

It's given me a lot of influence. My question is, I'm 59. I plan on retiring at 62.

I'm a truck driver. So do I retire, rely on my investments to live from 62 to 65 and claim Social Security at 65? Or do I file for Social Security at 62 and let my investments grow till I'm 65?

Yeah, that's a great question. You know, you know, the difference between the two is with the Social Security, you're going to get a guaranteed 8 percent increase every year, which you're not going to get with the investments. So I think that's just one factor that would probably drive you toward, OK, if even if I have to start withdrawing, you know, I know that I'm guaranteed that increase. Now, you're giving up what you would have been receiving if you took it early. So you've got to live long enough through that higher check to be repaid for what you're giving up. But in the end, you're going to have a check, you know, let's say 25 percent higher if you waited till 65. Your full retirement age is either 66 or 67.

That's going to be another year. And that would give you a 30 percent increase in that check for the rest of your life. How much would you need to pull out of your investments per year? Right about two thousand twenty one hundred a month.

OK. What do you have in that those retirement accounts? Right now, I got three fifty now and I've got three years for it to grow before I do anything. OK, great.

Yeah. So right now at four percent, that would give you fourteen thousand a year. So I like the idea of you growing it and getting it to where you need. But I try to limit it to four percent.

Keep it invested with some allocation to stocks and then let that Social Security grow. Thanks for your call. We'll be right back. Great to have you with us today on faith and finance.

I'm Rob West. Hey, coming up in our final segment today, Bob Doll is going to stop by. Normally he joins us each Monday with his market commentary. But given the holiday, he'll stop by today and just tell us what's moving the markets, what he's watching as we get things kicked off for the week. That's coming up in our final segment today. We'll look forward to that. In the meantime, taking your calls and questions on anything financial today.

Nearly all the lines full. So we'll dive back into Bloomingdale. Hi, guy.

Excuse me, guy. Go right ahead. Yes. I'd like to ask you a question. And that is eighty three years old. I've been in the stock market for over sixty one years. However, I do not trust the stock market anymore because of my age.

I am. I'd like to get into it, which I am. Get into the CDs, which are paying five thirty five. And I have two and a half million dollars in the stock and mutual funds. But is there a way I can get out of it, all of it without paying any tax?

Or do I have to pay the tax? Now, if I was twenty years younger, I would be sitting tight. I would not do nothing. But since the CDs are paying five thirty five, I'd like to get into the CDs.

Can you give me your opinion? I'd be happy to. Yeah, guy. Appreciate that. What type of account is it? Is it a retirement account or is it just what I call a taxable account?

Cash, cash. OK, so your stocks are not inside an IRA or something like that, correct? Correct.

OK, so every time you sell something for a profit, you pay taxes on it in the current year. Is that right? Oh, absolutely. Yes. OK. All right.

Very good. And what is it? Give me a sense of what your allocation is currently. What percent do you think you have in stocks versus bonds and cash? Do you know? Well, I have what I think.

Well, I don't think I know. Yeah, I have 60, 60, 70 percent in bonds and 30 percent in stocks. OK. All right. Yeah.

And have you had more volatility than you would like in the last couple of years? Yes, I did. OK. And are you pulling anything out of this to live on, guy? Yes, I am.

I am. They're sending me a check every year, every month. How much roughly? Forty five hundred dollars a month. OK, so you're taking a very modest amount out.

Yeah. I mean, here's the reality. I mean, if you were to call me and say, Rob, what would you recommend as an allocation for an 80 year old man with two and a half million dollars? I'd say, first of all, we needed to find how much is enough and look for opportunities. If you have more than you need to accelerate your giving while you're living. My one of my mentors, Ron Blue, says, do your giving while you're living. So you're knowing where it's going. And it's just kind of a fun way of saying, you know, God's given you this wealth.

Part of it is to be able to bless others and to use it in line with your passions that align with God's word. Part of it is perhaps to save and maybe give as an inheritance and a portion of it to live on, which you're doing. But you're pulling out a very modest amount of this two and a half million dollar portfolio.

So normally what I would say is it wouldn't be inappropriate for an 80 year old person who's in good health to say, given the fact that I plan on passing it on, either giving it away to charity at my death or leaving it as an inheritance. I want to continue to grow it so I can avoid losing the purchasing power because of inflation. And one of the ways I would do that is to maintain maybe a 20 to 30 percent position in stocks, the growth component of the portfolio and put the rest in bonds.

You've done that. Now, you just went through a period where bonds underperformed and it was very unusual. We don't normally have 12 consecutive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. And whatever rates are going up, bond prices are falling. Well, we're at the end of that. We may have one or two more, but eventually they're going to start lowering rates probably next year because they're going to need to stimulate the economy because their whole goal is to slow down. The economy essentially is close to it.

Put us in a recession to overcome and fight inflation. Well, when that happens, the bond portion of your portfolio that's been underperforming will outperform. So that's the only downside to what you're talking about is you're going to give up a lot of that upside in those bonds as the interest rates start to fall. Now, because you have more than you need and the only reason I say that is you're pulling a very modest amount.

You're pulling about two percent of this portfolio out per year, and that's a very modest amount. So you know, you don't need to take more risk than is necessary. And so to your point, if you could lock it up in a CD and have no risk and know that you're still getting a decent rate of return, well, if that helps you to sleep better at night, you feel like you're being a better steward, then that's fine. Go for it.

There's no problem there. I would just say, you know, think about the fact that these interest rates that we're seeing now with CDs are likely temporary, which is why you're going to get less in a five year CD today than you are in a one year, because the banks know that we're probably not going to see interest rates where they are today five years from now. They're going to be coming down to stimulate the economy. So you will have gotten out of your bond positions. You're going to miss the increase in the bonds as the interest rates fall. And you're going to be sitting here two years from now with two and a half million dollars and you're not going to be able to get a five and a half percent CD. So that's the only reason I might consider just, you know, maybe you take a portion of it and put it in CDs, but you leave a pretty significant portion in that bond allocation.

Give me your thoughts on all that. Yeah, I think that you give me a good idea. So I should leave some money with the bonds and some with CDs and with stocks. That's right.

I think that's right. Two other things. One is you may want to consider an advisor who can help you manage all this and make these decisions. And if you choose a certified kingdom advisor, they'll share your values. You could go to faithfi.com, faithfi.com, click find a CKA. That'll help you find a local certified kingdom advisor to help you.

The second is before you sell any of those appreciated stocks and pay capital gains, think about giving them away to a donor advised fund first, save the tax and get more into ministry. Hang on the line. We'll be right back. I'm so glad you're joining us today on faith and finance live. I'm Rob West. We're taking your calls and questions today on anything financial. Let's head back to the phones to North Port, Florida. Hi, Anthony. Go ahead, Anthony. Yes. My question to you.

Good afternoon. My question to you is I'm currently thinking about making an investment and I want to ask your criteria as to choosing an investment company. Currently, I have investment with Fidelity, but I'm looking at another organization. So I was asking what's your criteria? What do you use to to select?

Yeah, it's a good question. Tell me how you're going about this in the sense that will you be once you select the custodian for these accounts that you'll ultimately invest through? Will you be making those decisions yourself or will you be using an advisor? Well, currently, I'm looking at an advisor.

I think I spoke to somebody who's a CKA. I think that's what he called himself with Ameriprise, but I'm currently with Fidelity. Fidelity, I have a managed account there. So obviously, if I go with them, it would be a managed account. And then the gentleman here, he would be overseeing this account.

Yeah, very good. Yeah, there's been a lot of consolidation in the space. TD Ameritrade was just acquired by Schwab. So they picked up another 12 million accounts and you've got Fidelity and you've got Ameriprise. And then on the independent side, you've got LPL, which is just massive. And then in the wirehouse space, you've got Morgan and Merrill and UBS. And then back on the independent, there's Edward Jones and Raymond James.

But I mean, any of these kind of big household names that I mentioned, I wouldn't have any problem with. I mean, they're massive institutions. They're going to provide you the platform. They're going to give you the statements. They'll create the trading platform for the advisor you choose. The advisor is really the most important thing for me, Anthony, that you have find somebody who shares your values, somebody who really, you know, you feel like you have a good rapport with somebody who's going to do a lot of discovery about you not trying to, you know, tell you how you should go about things, but really learning who you are and what God's doing in your life, what your goals and objectives are, can bring, you know, all that to bear in a really well thought out investment strategy. So that would be the primary concern whether or not they use, you know, Ameriprise or Fidelity or Schwab or LPL or any of the others, really is of a secondary concern to me. You know, they're all going to be just about the same.

As long as they give the advisor access to the investment selections that he or she needs to build the portfolio that's right for you, then I don't think one's necessarily better than the other. Okay, that kind of settles something in my mind. Do you have time for another question? Yes sir, go right ahead. Would this time in terms of what's happening with the economy be a good time to invest $500,000 into, you know, into an account, put that into the market at this point?

I'm 51 years old. Potentially, where is that money now, in cash? In cash, yes. Yeah, and where has it been? Did you sell a property? Has it just been accumulating over time?

It's been accumulating and I sold two property as well. Okay, yeah. Yeah, you know, so here's what the data says. I mean, do I know or anybody else know whether the market's going to be up or down next quarter or by the end of the year or at the same point next year?

No. Anybody who tells you that they do know is not telling you the truth. But what we also know is that the data says when you're ready to start investing, as long as you've got the right time horizon, at least five years, I'd say, preferably at least 10 years, and you have the right investment mix that's appropriate for your age and risk tolerance and you're still a young guy, so you've got, you know, potentially 15 or 20 years for this money to grow and that's just till you get to retirement, then if the Lord tarries and you're in good health, you need this money to continue to grow, maybe a little more conservatively, but still over decades, even beyond your retirement date. So given that, the data will say that trying to put this in the market over time and pick your entry points is not as effective as just once you make the decision to invest, deploying that capital. The studies will show you that when you're ready to invest, as long as you can pull the trigger, and you're not going to hold back, you know, and if you are then and doing it over time, a third now and a third a couple months later, and a third a few months after that, if that's going to help you get it done, well, then do that. But if you can stomach it, the data will tell you that, you know, going ahead and deploying it as soon as you're ready is the best approach. So I would say yes, despite the fact that you may put it in, and it may go straight down for three months, I wouldn't say that's even a bad decision.

Because again, we're not investing for three months, we're investing for, you know, 20 years plus, does that make sense? Yes, of course, it does. Of course, it does. I was just a little bit earlier, because I heard sometimes guys mentioned the October surprise. I think that's what it's called. Yeah, yeah.

I mean, that that is a thing. And so but at the same time, again, you know, I think, you know, once you decide, you know, that you're going to invest, you're better off proceeding. Because, you know, we may not see anything like that, you know, heading into this fall. And then, you know, when we get into election year, usually stocks do well. But we also know that we have a potential recession coming. So again, there's just so many uncertainties. But at the end of the day, you know, again, if your time horizon's right, you got a trusted advisor that has a well thought out investment strategy with a disciplined approach. You're not going to react emotionally if this thing is down three or five months from now and pull it all out. You're in it for the long haul.

I would say, you know, when you're ready to deploy that capital, go for it. Yes. Okay. Thank you very much for your time. You're very welcome. Thanks for your call, Anthony. May the Lord bless you.

To Tuscaloosa. Hi, Augustina. How can I help you?

Hi, Rob. I love your show. I listen to your show every day on my way home. Oh, that's so kind. Thank you.

This is my question. My husband and I are both over 60 years old and we have never had a life insurance for both of us, but we have life insurance through our employees. But we found out that when we leave the job or retire that insurance did not go with us. So in 2021, my husband decided to get me insurance because his job, he has a teacher's retirement that he thinks is enough to cover for a funeral and everything else. So he got one for me and it was a 50,000 insurance and he's been paying $90 a month since March 2021. Now we got a paper from the insurance this year and we got a little bit confused.

It has the account value 510.58 minus surrender charges, 1,861 and then the cash value is 00. And so we didn't understand it. And so I told him, let me talk to Rob because he always said we don't have to do life insurance.

We have to do term insurance. So I wanted to try it out from you. What you say about this?

Yeah, very good. Well, I think I would go back to that same idea is what is the purpose of this insurance? Because if you all are not working and are you both still working or not? We are both working now. Okay. And how long do you plan to continue to work?

My husband is 67 and he's giving himself like three, four years to retire. Okay. All right.

Yeah, very good. Let's do this. I've got to take a quick break. When we come back, I'll finish with you on the other side of the break and we'll talk about where you all go from here.

It's a great question and I can understand why you're kind of wrestling through it, Augustina. So stay on the line. We'll be right back after this. This is Faith and Finance Live. Thanks for joining us today on Faith and Finance Live.

I'm Rob West. Just before the break, we were talking to Augustina in Tuscaloosa. She and her husband are 61 and 67 respectively. He's planning on working for another three to four years. They've got some insurance policies through work and then they have a whole life policy of $50,000 death benefit that they're paying a little over $1,000 a year for and just wondering how they should think about this moving forward. And Augustina, I think the best option is to do some retirement planning because what I would love for you all to do is understand what retirement assets you have. I'd love for you to understand how your husband's teacher's retirement is going to pay out both for his life and then let's say he were to die before you, whether that would then pay to you and it should as survivor's benefits, but how that compares to the monthly income that you need to maintain your lifestyle and then allow you to determine what, if any, any insurance you need between now and when you all stop working because it may be, you know, be that what you have at work through your employer is enough or it may be that you're not quite there yet and therefore maybe a 10 year policy on your husband's life payable to you, you know, while you're still working would be really the most cost effective way to go. I don't like mixing savings with insurance. I would rather you buy pure insurance, get it as inexpensive as you can, but get the amount of death benefit you need. But it's hard for me to say which policies you can let go of without understanding the complete picture of your retirement situation. And that's where I think just doing some, you know, a few hours of retirement planning with an advisor who can look at your whole financial life, your assets, your income needs, your insurance, and then, you know, advise you as to how to position yourself so that no matter who the Lord calls home first, the other one has what they need, you know, to maintain your lifestyle.

Thinking about long term care insurance, if that's, you know, able to be added into the budget, just looking at all of these issues. Does that make sense? Yes, yes, yes. It does make sense. So where you would go is head to our website, faithfi.com.

That's faithfi.com. Just click find a CKA and I'd interview a couple of Certified Kingdom Advisors there in Tuscaloosa and basically what you're saying is, listen, I don't need asset management or investment management right now. Really, I just need somebody to sit down with my husband and I do some retirement planning and help us just make sure we're on track to have what we need. And if we need to work longer, we need to know that. And if we're missing, we have some gaps in the insurance coverage, life insurance or long term care insurance that you identify that so you can fill those gaps. But we appreciate your call.

After you do that, if you have other questions, don't hesitate to call back. And thanks for your kind remarks about the program as well. We appreciate it.

Well, folks, before we head back to the phones, it's Tuesday because yesterday was a holiday. We're grateful that Bob Doll is joining us today. Bob is chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments.

He's a frequent contributor on Fox Business and CNBC, and he joins us with his market commentary each week. And Bob, I know you were off last week traveling. There's a lot that's taken place in your absence.

So what are you watching today? Well, the market sagged today a bit, Rob, after a good week last week, which interrupted a series of down weeks. So we're in this yo-yo period as we're getting some mixed news. For example, we got a decent jobs report last Friday, but the revisions from prior months were a big negative. The unemployment rate has moved up to 3.8%, which is the highest since February of 2022. We got a decent inflation report, the PCE deflator, as it's called. But the 12 month numbers are still far from the Fed's goal of 2%. So you hear me saying on the one hand this, but on the other hand that. And I think the market is just marking time till there's a little more clarity in where we are, both in terms of inflation and the economy and potential recession.

Yeah. Well, the Fed chair Powell was out in Jackson Hole. I guess if you're going to give a speech, you might as well go to Jackson Hole.

It's a beautiful part of the country. Did he did he help or hurt the case for the market, you know, outperforming in the future? I think he was generally as expected. It was a short speech. He talked about being dated dependent, which is exactly what people thought he would say and should say. If anything, it was a little more hawkish than expected.

But I don't think that's a big deal. We need more decline in inflation for the Fed to truly be finished. Yeah.

All right. At this point, Bob, what are the recession odds? Just as you look at the general health of the economy and you're interpreting all kinds of data, where do you think we stand here heading into the fall? Well, I'm still of the view that when you have an inverted yield curve, negative money growth, the leading economic indicators down 17 months in a row, that's collectively sending a message that the economy is going to weaken.

Now, there are smarter people than me arguing, oh, Bob, relax. We haven't had a recession. We're not going to have one. I still think it's the unpredictable nature of the lags from all those actions to translation to the economy. So my view is the probability of recession is higher than the consensus. I think the consensus is probably 20 to 30 percent. And I'm kind of 40 percent less than half kind of in the next six months.

But a higher percentage between now and the end of next year. All right. That's helpful. Bob, you had some comments out in your deliberations this week about the federal budget and you use the word unprecedented. Tell us what you're looking at there.

Yeah, you want to talk about any fun subjects? We've got the federal government running deficits on the order of two trillion dollars. And that's an economy that's OK. In recessions, you might run a two trillion dollar deficit if in good years you're running a surplus.

But we haven't seen one of those in a long time. Look, it's not just the deficit, but it's the interest that we have to pay on that debt as interest rates have crept higher. That's the problem. For years, we had debt going up, but interest rates falling.

So it wasn't a big deal. Now we have debt going up and interest rates have gone higher. And therefore, this is going to cost a higher percentage of the federal budget to be devoted to interest expense, which means there's less available to help the economy grow. Yeah. Bob, as you just listen to the candidates, obviously, we're coming into an election cycle here. Anybody serious about fiscal restraint and dealing with the problems that you just described?

Well, not really. I mean, a couple of the Republicans kind of talk about that out of one side of their mouth. Look, it's to defend them. It's the third rail of American politics, because if you're going to cut back, you've got to cut somebody's benefits. And that means you're going to lose votes.

So it's not very popular. And the leading candidates on both sides, Biden and Trump, are ignoring it and basically have tax cuts or more spending in their in their goals. So neither of them seem to be willing to address the issue. It will be the bond market that eventually says enough's enough.

I don't think that's any time real soon. We can't ignore this problem forever. Yeah, that's really helpful. All right. I took you down the road of bad news once you finished with something positive today. I think the good news is that earnings have come continue to come in a little better than expected.

And for the first time in months, earnings expectations for twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four are moving up a bit. Not enough to have a party yet, Rob, but moving in the right direction. I'll take it, Bob, for a Tuesday.

That's not a bad place to finish. All right, my friend. May the Lord bless you.

Talk to you next week. God bless. All right. That's Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments.

You can learn more at Crossmark Global Dotcom. All right. Let's round out the program today with your phone calls to Aurora, Illinois. Hi, Jeremy.

Thanks for your patience. Go ahead. Hello. Just a question. I'm recently a follower and my wife and I decided to want to give back to our church.

We agreed on a small amount, but I want to give a little bit more. But she's not comfortable with with doing that. So that's one of your thoughts and opinion. Yeah. Well, first of all, Jeremy, did I hear that you say you're a new Christ follower? Yes, I I got baptized a few months ago and I'm trying to walk the good path. Oh, wow. That's incredible. Well, I'm delighted to hear that you've given your life to Jesus. And that's the most important decision you'll ever make. And I couldn't underscore more the importance of getting into a good Bible believing church that can surround you with people that can just walk alongside you and help you to grow in your faith as you pursue the Lord.

That's awesome. Listen, you know, God owns everything. He doesn't need our money. He wants our hearts. And I think that's the important place to start when it comes to our generosity. It's not that God wants something from us. It's it's God wants something for us, which is why I think generosity kind of leaps off the page when when you begin to read the scriptures, you'll see that the gospel is a generosity story for God so loved the world. He gave his one and only son that we might not perish, but have eternal life when we place our trust in him.

So, you know, I think that's the beginning point. This is not about legalism or checking a box. It's about an expression of our gratitude of what God has done for us and a recognition that God owns it all. And we can be stewards and part of that stewardship responsibility is to give.

And that includes the work of the local church, but it also includes other things that are on the heart of God. When you look at perhaps why it is that she doesn't want to give, is it because of the church itself? Is it just maybe her upbringing? She just wants to kind of hold on to the money a little tighter. What do you think it is that's driving her, you know, desire to hold back and giving? Honestly, she was born and raised Catholic. They gave, when they used to go to church, they gave, you know, $10 every week. So that's kind of where her mindset is.

Yeah, yeah, very good. So I know we can afford more than that. So like I said, I want to respect her wishes and respect her, but I also want to respect the Lord and do what I can. I love that.

I think you have the right heart posture there. I want to send you a book. Let's start there.

It's called Money and Marriage, God's Way. It'll help you too, as new believers explore the scriptures and understand God's heart for his resources. We're going to send that to you. Let's give that a place to start. Thanks for your call today, my friend. Faith and Finance Live is a partnership between Moody Radio and Faith Fi. Thanks to my team today and we'll see you tomorrow. Bye-bye.