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1970s Deja Vu All Over Again?

MoneyWise / Rob West and Steve Moore
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August 16, 2022 5:30 pm

1970s Deja Vu All Over Again?

MoneyWise / Rob West and Steve Moore

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August 16, 2022 5:30 pm

A philosopher once said, those who can’t remember the past are condemned to repeat it. So, is that what we’re experiencing now? On today's MoneyWise Live, host Rob West will talk to investing expert Mark Biller about how history is repeating itself, now that we’re seeing many of the same economic conditions that existed in the 1970s. Then Rob will take your calls and financial questions.

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George, since he is credited with saying those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it is not experiencing right now by Rob West. If you're 50 or older.

You might think history is repeating itself that were seeing many of the same economic conditions as the 1970 talk about that today with Mark Miller notes on your calls at 800-525-7000 800-525-7000. This is moneywise live wisdom for your financial your guest today is Mark Miller, executive editor of sound mind investing in. You might be too young to remember much about the 1970s, but he certainly been studying the economics of that. Margaret Debbie with us today. Thanks Rob glad to be back with you today.

By the way Marge could be taking your questions today specifically on investing for the first portion of the broadcast of your wondering about your portfolio the volatility as of late. Some of the dynamics were seeing at play. We love to hear from you. 800-525-7000 Mark were looking at an article today that you wrote for the latest SMI newsletter called 1970s were docs what exactly are the similarities between now and the 1970s yeah well let's go through three of them are soaring energy prices. For starters, relentless inflation that did come down just a tick this month but is still much higher than in recent decades and now are starting to see slowing economic growth to go along with that mean of the stock market has has been coming off a long period of impressive gains which is also the case coming out of the 60s and also similar to the 60s that stockmarket advance was led by a relatively smallish group of seemingly invincible growth stocks.

I guess you know big picture.

I would say that the last significant pivot from a low-inflation environment to a higher inflation environment happened in the late 60s so it's pretty natural that as today's investors are dealing with this type of inflationary surge for the first time in many many years there looking back to the late 60s early 70s to study some of these similarities and is there doing that their finding a number of these things in common.

Now, absolutely. Perhaps a very similar playbook here Mark, what is that mean for investing that yeah well the big thing that really jumps out when you start talking 1960s and 70s for the stock market is that the stock market itself really basically flattened out for about 16 years there. The Dow Jones industrial Index, which is the primary index people followed back then was at the same level. In 1982, as it had been all the way back in 1966 is actually little worse than happy because you had that really high inflation through battle. So the same dollar 1982 wasn't worth nearly what it would have been a 1966. So you know, in a big picture there just wasn't a very good. To be a stock investor for that time and I should point out Rob that the main idea of the article that were talking about today wasn't trying to say that we are for sure going to have a repeat of the 1970s, we got these similarities. Maybe it'll turn out.

Similarly, maybe it won't, but the main point of the article was just to alert our readers that the market does go through these long plateaus that are not really as uncommon as you might think. And one of the things in the article that I'd encourage listeners are curious to to go look at is there's a chart in the article of the stock market goes all the way back to 1930. It's a little different than the kind of swooping up into the right chart that everybody's familiar with the stock market. We scale it a little bit differently and it's explained in the article, but the point of doing that is just be able to see over these 90 years.

The very distinct bull bear and sideways. So we can talk a little bit more about that. I will come back absolutely. I mean these significant sideways markets or something. Perhaps we so often we think about stock market investing. A midst the bull and bear markets that we certainly had as well will unpack that and what it means for you. Just around the corners.

We continue with Mark Miller, executive editor and sound mind investing readily read this article 1970s were docs in sound mind 525-7000 around the corner with us today on moneywise live on Rob West euros joining me today. Mark Miller, executive editor and sound mind investing as we explore a recent article from the SMI newsletter called 1970s were docs are we entering a period similar to the 1970s. You know, I'm looking at the chart market.

You were talking about that you all put together in this article in 1966 to 1982. The market was basically flat and then again from 2000 to 2010 as we think about these periods of these flat markets.

What else do investors need to know if in fact this is what were entering yeah well I think one of the big implications has to do with the way that a lot of people invest in over the last 2025 years, especially during this really long secular bull market that we found from 2009 through last year and a lot of investors have been persuaded by the buy-and-hold using index funds approach to investing in why not when the markets going more or less straight up for 12 years. Being active isn't really that important. It's not probably going to add much value by that is not the case. During these longer sideways. That's when active approaches tend to do a little bit better so that's one consideration and you know if we're transitioning from a lower inflation environment to a higher inflation environment that's kind of the catalyst adds important to look behind behind the curtain to see is there is there a plausible reason why we might be in this type of transition. Seems like there is a doesn't mean we necessarily will have that type of transition.

But it's something for us to keep an eye on. Thankfully, that doesn't mean that we have to worry about that transition just means we need to be aware of no doubt about that is, in fact, we were entering one of the secular bear markets. What effect does that have on investors. These these periods per se yeah well I think there are two key questions that are really going to heavily influence how a person responds to this information, robbing of the first is how long is your investing timeframe.

So, younger investors think of somebody who's 30 or 40 years old. They're gonna react pretty differently to this idea than a 60-year-old investor and that's because it's much more of a threat to have say 10 years where that the broad market isn't going up much for retiree or near retiree because there are time horizon is just shorter on the flipside for that younger investor having stock prices not go up a whole lot for the next several years, 10 years, whatever. That's actually really good news for a younger worker because it means that they can load up on shares through their 401(k) or other, and of their IRA.

Other investment accounts at reasonable prices and hopefully then have accumulated a bunch of shares by the time the next big secular bull market pushes those prices higher again so it's it's more of a threat for the person is close to retirement.

Thankfully, two things about that one. You know these days most retirement timeframe stretch out a decade, 20 years, sometimes longer. So it's not a hopeless situation there, even for the near retiree, plus the silver lining. There is the near retiree has had the benefit of the last 12 years really boosted the value of stocks in their account yet. No doubt about its hundred 525-7000 here for the first portion of the broadcast your question specifically on investing the market as you think about the long term, and the economy were facing today. Even some of what's going on around us, that may be similar to the 1970s we love to hear from you Mark Miller answering your investing related questions today again 800-525-7000 yards of the first?

Then is how long is your investing timeframe. What's the second question for living through one of these extended bear markets yeah really get back to that ideally mentioned a moment ago of what your investing approach. Is it just indexing where you are needing the whole market to move higher for your account to move fire or do you have a little more of an active approach that can still hopefully generate some gains even in more of a flattish overall market in one of the things that I think is really interesting about both of these. We alluded to earlier.

Was this similarity to house the previous bull market had been so I want to say exclusively. It wasn't totally exclusive, but certainly led by dominated by these really powerful growth stocks so everybody knows the fangs stocks. Today, the Apple, Amazon, Google group, but there is a similar situation in the late 60s and early 70s they call those stocks. The nifty 50 and those were the blue-chip best-of-breed growth stocks and they similarly to today. Got bit up to really really high valuations, and over the course of the 70s, as inflation rose interest rates rose those formerly highflying growth stocks. They were whittled down this much smaller valuations over the course of that decade, and in their place.

The types of stocks that make real stuff stuff that hurts when you drop it on your foot.

Those stocks came in the prominence and in those value stocks became a lot more desirable. We've seen just a little bit of an echo of that Rob over the last year and 1/2 or so as some of the energy stocks and things like chemical producers and fertilizer producers. These are the types of stocks that have done really well over the last year or so. So again that it's too early to say that were have a decade of that just because we had a year of that, but it is interesting to see some of these patterns that we can see from back in the 60s 70s. Starting to possibly reassert themselves today. Yeah.

Very good. Well, that's really helpful Mark as we think about how we should approach these periods of what's driving this markets a lot more to continue to unpack this article. But let's go to the phones, though 800-525-7000 with your questions were Mark Miller today Vernon in New Port Richey, Florida.

Redheads are what about your close to retirement. Now if you are like like iron pipe year fidelity started look like paper plates and what would you ratio and/or comparable other investment people, close to retirement. Yeah. Thanks. Mark yeah so you know I'm I'm certainly not suggesting that you want to abandon stocks by any means, and if you have a well diversified portfolio that has a combination of both growth and value, large and small stocks, then you're probably going to be participating, even if some of these other areas that haven't done as well start to reassert themselves. Where where folks can run into trouble is it's very easy to just focus on the last bunch of winners and if you have a portfolio of dominated by those largest growth stocks that can be a little bit of a problem so you always want to look at that stock, bond allocation and try to have diversification diversification across different types of stocks just a few seconds before a break. What you think is the right mix 5 to 7 years of retirement. The average person in terms of bond stocks yeah somewhere in that range. 7030 6B 45 Vernon thanks for your call today 800-525-7000 Mark going with this will be right back with much more stick with us today and moneywise live for wisdom for your financial decision. If you haven't already, go to increase your free moneywise membership to get our email in your inbox the latest content from the leaders in biblical finance with a quick message from me on a money topic from a biblical perspective each and every Thursday just had to and click sign up were talking today with Mark Biller executive editor at sound mind investing with these high energy prices relentlessly rising inflation slowing economic growth in the stock market coming off a long period of impressive games.

Games are we rebooting the 1970s, market conditions and could we be in for a sideways market from here will that's were talking about with Mark Miller today if you'd like to read the team and SMI's thoughtful analysis on this topic. The article you want to look for is called 1970s were docs and you'll find Marcus agreed to give us a little bit more of his times will continue to take your questions for this portion of the broadcast, specifically on investing. Let's head back to the phones Mark Woodberry, Tennessee Tammy, thank you for your patience Greta and I got a late start in my career, my children, but I was looking forward to investing out the number now till around five are silent. Not sure what I need to do it point yeah well I'll tell you one thing we can do is when we're done here you stay on the line will get your information will send you a copy of the sound mind investing handbook is just a phenomenal resource for you to begin to educate yourself on investing and do that from a biblical perspective that will be our gift to you, but Marco what thoughts would you have for Tammy at this point yeah Tammy I think what they're couple different things that I would would highlight one is that the way that you invented the type of account that you use can make a big difference. So do you have access to a workplace retirement plan, like a 401(k) or anything like that. Now lie down. Okay well that's okay. The good news is that there is a type of account for working folks who don't have a workplace plan that's called an IRA and specifically the Roth IRA is a good choice that allows you to put money into the account and then have that money grow over time and as long as you take it out in retirement after age 59 1/2.

You won't have to pay taxes on the gains from those those investments that you make so starting a Roth IRA is a good way to begin. And then you can set that up to automatically put money in each month. Now there are some limitations overall to how much you can contribute over the course of the year but if you and a spouse. For example, each have a separate Roth IRA. That's a good way to expand that and then once you get figured out the type of account.

The Roth IRA and get that set up the next decision is what are you going to invest in within the Roth IRA and that's where what we were talking about earlier with a mix of stocks and bonds comes very important and generally someone who's you know 10 years or so away from retirement would want to probably look at like 70% stock 30% bond type of mix. So those are a couple of of beginning pointers. Rob, what else would you add to that, I think that's right on Markkula question I would slip back to you is where would you do that which is good. One of the discount brokerages.

No, should they look to sound mind investing to get some advice on the specific mutual funds. What else would you offer so that that's a great question. You can do that with. Again we were talking earlier about index funds, and a good shop for that would be like Vanguard set up your IRA with them and get a total bond market index fund. The total stock market index fund and you're basically done at that point a little bit more involved version would be to go over to sound mind investing in and look at some of the approaches that we use that are going to be a little bit more diversified and have a little bit more specific guidance as to which types of funds to Vernon's question earlier.

That's also where we would start to mix in a few things.

In addition to stocks and bonds, maybe a little bit of real estate gold things like that but a lot of that boils down Rob to how involved the person is willing to be and if there they're willing to put in a little bit more work.

Read about it a little on the front end and follow along month by month, then that might be a real good option for somebody yeah very good to me. I love the idea of you opening a Ross. That's as Mark said it one of the discount brokerages with a couple index funds one bond one stocks stock with a 7030 split toward stocks or getting the assistance of the

Thanks for your call. The Nigerian Michigan a jury want talk about bitcoin give us your question that claim is a great investment. Mark yeah so what we could do a whole program on bitcoin and I think recently that but yet to try to sum that up real quickly for you Jerry.

I think that bitcoin has a lot of reasons to like it.

Unfortunately a lot of the reasons that somebody like you or I would be attracted to bitcoin are the very same reasons why the government would be nervous about allowing bitcoin to flourish because it's essentially an alternative to the their currency world. Their fiat currency world and so were seeing some actions just last week. In fact, there was a fairly aggressive action taken against some of the crypto current.

The providers and so the regulatory side of that is starting to become a little bit more heavy so I would just caution you, Jerry to be careful and to probably limit any investment in bitcoin through a pretty small percentage of your portfolio. If you're going to dabble in that at all. I completely agree. I think the technology behind the crypto currency. The block team is here to stay and has wide-ranging application as an investment.

I'd stay away here today down 50% on bitcoin when you're down 45% stick around right back on moneywise live with his moneywise live biblical for your financial decisions. Part of the moneywise family do you listen regularly you on our website.

Would you like to support the ministry will we could certainly use your assistance. Moneywise is a listener supported ministry, we do what we do every day here on the radio in the after her coaches is a direct result of your financial support is if you consider a gift would certainly appreciate it.

You can head to and click the donate button you'll find a way to give online over the phone or through the mail. Whether you become a moneywise patron with a monthly gift or make a one time gift. We would certainly appreciate anything you can do it takes all of us to come together large gifts and small gifts, all of them together help us keep this ministry strong in the thanks in advance again just click donate and that you can give online all right back to the phone we go Mark Miller with us today from sound mind investing in all it said the Tampa market. Welcome Linda to the broadcast Linda Goretti all I like Jack. You are my knee, and like Ivonne John, you are 90, Linda, just to clarify, was this a rental property or a second home all week.okay very good so the money were talking about is what's left after you bought the condos that after everything okay great so this money is not earmarked for anything in our you will consider yourself to be on track for retirement with assets separate from this court was always our retirement. No doubt we will delete that yeah very good.

Mark your thoughts so the court the million-dollar question right now Linda is with what the market is doing right now. Have we just seen the bear market bottom in which case we've got clear sailing ahead and that's what a lot of investors seem to believe right now with a big rally over the last seven or eight weeks. There's another camp that is still very concerned about what may be facing us over the next 6 to 12 months and that argument is primarily on the recession front and the possibility of another downturn for the market so it is a tricky question and to be perfectly frank, it's, it's the biggest thing that were grappling with right now is sound mind investing is is how to approach that, like you, we have a decent amount of cash in our portfolios in our model portfolios and we are deliberating about what is the best way to put that back into the market. Now we have a number of mechanical processes and strategies that guide us and that so it's not just us trying to put our finger in the wind and figure this out but it is a very tricky call and you know I would say that that one approach that that may appeal to you is to not not go all or nothing on this. This can be the sort of thing that maybe you put a portion of that to work today in case people are are right about that are in the camp that the bottom is then and things are going up from here by the other other side of that would be that you would still have a portion of that money that you might be looking for a lower entry point. At some point down the road if that appeals to you. My suggestion would be to see how we are approaching that sound mind investing and you can see some of that on our site.

Not trying to be coy, but it's just way too much to try to delve into here when that's the type of thing that were discussing every single month with our members in the strategies that were following over there so hope that helps a little bit Rob what would you think that's right on Linda, you have some follow-up questions or thoughts now all week 313 what we wanted. We don't want to get the wrong thing that we do not know you were going Ivonne doing little thing that you retirement gears recognize that even once you get that cortical retirement deeds, the Lord, to reason your good help you, but decades long need for this money so you still have a long time horizon number two. Let's not discount wise counsel and so I think you've built a significant mistake here. I think having a professional advisor like a certified kingdom advisor to come alongside you and help you manage this would be key. You don't want to just put this on autopilot side interview two or three CK's there in Tampa which you can find it and then decide the path forward.

Number three. Once you determine the right mix of investments based on your age and risk tolerance, and you could be as conservative as you want to be perhaps the strategy is to layer that into the market over six months so you don't have to answer that question. The mark started with doesn't matter if this is the bottom or we have another down leg you could move into the market systematically over a period of time, but I think the key with this kind of money Linda in the questions you're asking is to have a professional alongside you not to carry out their own wishes, but to really know the portfolio that reflects your values, priorities, goals and objectives, so hopefully that helps you appreciate your call today quickly to Indianapolis, Lisa, how can we help you there. I had a question at a all like policy that I had about 1990, 91, my premium about 70 to 50 month total premium eight in a year and the cash value is around 52,010 change my question have to do it. Should I keep that because I do have a term life insurance policy with about 150,000. I have another life insurance through work like one times or two times my pay and my end after my financial advisor had suggested catching it out to connect cash value and angry and backing it or I get have it pay for itself and not worry about the premiums every month. Yeah well I did the key first lease is what's the right amount of death benefit for you how much life insurance do you need and that's a function of the income you're trying to replace that death for a dependent like a spouse or loved one is depending upon you, and in the cheapest way to get the proper amount of coverage is gonna be through term insurance for a period of time that matches your retirement date when hopefully you built up enough assets that you are self-insured and then the question is where's the best place for that money to grow that 52,000 and it's probably not in that life insurance policies probably somewhere else. We appreciate your call today market just about 30 seconds left put a ball on this conversation we had today about the potential for repeating what we saw in the 70s. Yeah, I think the big thing Rob is to have a big picture perspective on this and recognize the positive abilities so that you can try to plan ahead for whatever comes our way. Yeah, that's right. Stick to your plan. Have discipline plan and don't let the ebbs and flows the market as you make a rash decision. Mark Miller, executive editor, sound mind investing. You can read this article 1970s were not sound mind Mark, thanks for being with us will be right back to join his moneywise lives we apply God's wisdom to your financial decisions and choices. Rob last right back to the phones Mary and Judy have been holding patiently was great questions. First, to Marion, Indiana, go right ahead okay. How are you your program, retired teacher should not work at every school all the time. For the last 15 years and always cornered and he were just going to going to do his homework well and then he just worked on or all of his work in order to create just act out so I want to invest one count down and just let it go for 15 or 20 years for you because you know I'm some kind it'll make the right decision.

In general, but I think if you get about 30 years old. So, what programs would you suggest yeah that's a great question the challenges the type of account you know you could do a custodial account. The problem is that becomes his, at the age of majority, which was likely 18 if you wanted taken by a sports car is not making good decisions that kinda defeats that purpose. The other way to do it is just to do in your name and then make him the beneficiary of that account.

That way you can control you. What's done with it and when it's dispersed to him, so long as you're alive because if the Lord calls you home and that immediately goes to him and so if you're trying to avoid that and you want to control it beyond your life until certain conditions are met. That's going to involve a trust. The challenges that's going to be pretty costly. That could be $1500 to set up but essentially that's a legal entity for the purpose of holding assets for the benefit of a specific person or even organization and children are frequently the beneficiaries of trust funds because they safeguard the assets and make sure they're used for their stewardship. You know, and so certain triggering events that cause the dispensing of the assets to the intended recipient can be set up in the trust, such as when he reaches a certain age or payment schedule, or when certain conditions are met, and it can live beyond your life where a trustee would disperse based on the trust documents the challenges of your talking about just $1000 I could chew up the whole thing and just the cost. The legal expense to set it up so I think beyond that, Mary. It's probably just something that's in your name, where it's a separate account, probably putting it into a stock index fund like a your total market index fund the just captures the broad moods of the market and it's just invested you know it's your mark for him. You have control over it. You put him in on it is the beneficiary and if at some point during your life you decide is ready for it. At that point you could gifted to him you would just have to be aware that if you pass away, it automatically becomes his money, regardless of what age he is at that point okay okay stock index fund would become a little cheaper right now for sure because you could set up an account for free and just basically make that deposit.

You could use Fidelity or Charles Schwab and I probably put it in a total market index fund of some kind and kinda just forget about it. Oh, thank you so much I think. Thank you very much to see were to stay in Indiana Judy with a really interesting question, go right ahead. The order much cheaper online.

Ron will now get online five dollars you will you your bottom line you yeah in my notes here. Judy I just wanted to ask the following question here it says you you she actually went above and beyond to actually let you use the chairs put them in your home took amount of her inventory for a period of time. Tell me about that piece of how I called different color.

Yeah, yeah, very good to see what you're saying. This is actually a thing so this phenomenon is called show rooming. What is that would basically just refers to the practice of visiting brick-and-mortar retail stores to research merchandise before you end up just buying it online for a lower price and it allows you look at it and touch it and test the products and of course those retailers are spending money to provide you know that brick-and-mortar shop in you know for you to be able to do that and then you're buying it online is a good one side of this is was a good steward. Why would I pay anything more that I have to pay if I can find a cheaper somewhere else. The other side of this is if you value me and able to buy locally and have local places that many in many respects are going out of business because of this practice and because of what's happening with online shopping then you may say you know what I'm to choose to shop local and hopefully as many retailers are there. Finding ways to match online prices, especially if you say, and I think this is the key here. If you're feeling in your conscience that well.

Perhaps I'm taking a little bit advantage of the situation because she was so helpful in and did so much for me. I think you could be honest and say listen, I want to do business with you.

I just can't in good conscience spend twice as much, or 50% more than I can buy this elsewhere.

Here's where I can buy it. Could you match it. Could you meet me in the middle. What can we do so I can give you the business end of the end of the day they just can't. Well, I don't think you're wrong one where the other to decide to do business there because you value local retailers or because you just feel like is a good steward you need to spend as little as possible so I don't think there's a right or wrong here. I you know I think you just need to kinda think through it and see it is the Lord going to tell me to do one thing or the other if not yet. I think you're certainly entitled to go anyway you want. You know there are ways to now see you know through augmented reality, actual products in your space in your home on your table you know and so that technology is available where you don't even need to go into a retailer.

If you're just looking.

The bottom line it, but you want the benefit of actually seeing the merchandise in your space, but as to the specific one I just asked the Lord to impress upon you how he would have you proceed and then you make that call. I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. Hate appreciates you a call and they let us know what you decide.

And I'm curious I'd love to hear the end of the story, God bless you Judy folks we covered a lot of ground today and at the end of the day. We want to be good managers of God's resources and really be wise stewards which means we have to seek wise counsel and all that we do that we started today by talking about just the financial gyrations in the stock market and these kinds of unsettled markets. These challenging economic times can lead us to fear. When we play the what if game closed today by just addressing that you know our friend, the late Larry Burket used to say. Our anxieties usually are not related to the lack of things, but to the loss of things that Larry would go on to explain that one of Satan's favorite tools to discourage Christians is the question what if what if questions lead right down the road to fear that maybe you that's one of these questions recently. What if the economy gets worse and I can't pay my bills. What if I don't have enough money for retirement. What if I have a medical emergency and her insurance isn't enough. What if I can't find an affordable car. What if I lose my job or even wanted my spouse dies. Well, the problem with what it is that it makes us think about what might go wrong in the future and of course we can't see the future, but we tend to worry about it anyway.

Worry leads to fear and fear is a spiritual trap. Fear is the opposite of trust and when you stop trusting God your right where the enemy want you taking your eyes off the goodness of God and focusing on our own problems. Instead, you know, folks. It's all about perspective, fear, or trust now here is the antidote to fear, you ready when anxiety takes over. We can turn to God's word for encouragement. We finished today was some passages that I know will be an encouragement to you.

Jesus says in John 1633 in the world you will have tribulation, but take heart I have overcome the world. You see, when financial worry seems overwhelming.

Well, it helps to remember that we don't ever have to be afraid.

We can endure any troubles with confidence that God is good and his promises are true. What about Isaiah 4113 I am the Lord your God who upholds your right hand, who says do not fear I will help you. You see, God is in control of all of the details and he will provide what we need at just the right time when on Psalm 27 verse one the Lord is my light and my salvation whom shall I fear the Lord is the defense of my life. What shall I dread you see folks. The enemy wants us to worry about what we might lose but in Christ we gain so much more, including peace, no matter what we finish with this one. First Timothy 17 says God is not given us a spirit of fear but of power and of love in us and of a sound mind you see in Christ we can steer clear of the what if mentality and trust God implicitly with the future. The question is how are we approaching that. Are we allowing fear to crowd out our trust in our faith in the Lord while we know that he says he will never leave us or forsake us. What's fascinating is that promise was connected to the idea of contentment really being content with what God has entrusted to us because he is our provider and our sustainer.

He will never abdicate that role or responsibility to anyone for any or anything else.

So how we challenge you today not to play the what if game instead into your trust in the Lord.

I was so thankful for you being along with us today want to say how grateful I am for my team, get your phone today Amy Rios or producer & our engineer, Mr. Robert Sutherland provided great research today is tomorrow.

I'll be here, Lord willing

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