Share This Episode
MoneyWise Rob West and Steve Moore Logo

Money Presses and Inflation

MoneyWise / Rob West and Steve Moore
The Truth Network Radio
September 13, 2021 5:56 pm

Money Presses and Inflation

MoneyWise / Rob West and Steve Moore

On-Demand Podcasts NEW!

This broadcaster has 903 podcast archives available on-demand.

Broadcaster's Links

Keep up-to-date with this broadcaster on social media and their website.


September 13, 2021 5:56 pm

As inflation creeps up, people are understandably concerned about how it will affect their budgets and investments. And many are asking what economic effects will result from the Fed increasing the nation’s money supply. On today's MoneyWise Live, Rob West will talk with our favorite economist, Jerry Bowyer, about these issues. Then Rob will answer your calls and questions on various financial topics. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE
The Charlie Kirk Show
Charlie Kirk
Faith And Finance
Rob West
Our American Stories
Lee Habeeb
Faith And Finance
Rob West
Summit Life
J.D. Greear
The Charlie Kirk Show
Charlie Kirk

Uncle Ryan is going to talk about how hot, hot, hot cash out refinances are. That sounds fun.

I sound like a broken record. I've been doing this for 18 years. I have never seen a market like this in my life. Home values have generally been skyrocketing the last couple of years.

And with interest rates being some low, I've actually seen refinances where people are able to cash out that newly found equity in their homes, do home improvements, whatever it may be, and still save money per month compared to what their prior mortgage payment was. So it's worth a shot just to give us a phone call. And one thing I can promise at United Faith Mortgage is we will not be pushy.

It's one of my biggest pet peeves. I can promise you we will not be that way. I like to see it as my job is to present you with a few different options.

I step back, I let you decide, and I'll let you call me when you want to move forward. We are United Faith Mortgage. Economist Thomas Sowell said this about inflation, it's a way to take people's wealth from them without having to openly raise taxes. Inflation is the most universal tax of all.

Hi, I'm Rob West. As inflation creeps up, people are understandably concerned about how it will affect their budgets and investments. I'll talk about that first today with our own economist, Jerry Boyer. Then it's on to your calls and questions. 800-525-7000.

That's 800-525-7000. This is MoneyWise Live, biblical wisdom for your financial decisions. Well, MoneyWise contributor Jerry Boyer is the financial editor at townhall.com, a frequent guest on the Fox Business Channel and author of The Maker vs. The Takers, What Jesus Really Said About Social Justice and Economics. Jerry, always a delight to have you with us.

And always a pleasure to be with you, my friend. Jerry, we recently received an email from a listener, Kurt, in Colorado, and this is typical of many emails we've received as of late. He writes, I would enjoy hearing a discussion on MoneyWise about how the Federal Reserve quote-unquote prints money that it pours into the economy and whether this leads to inflation. Related to that, Kurt writes, won't those massive trillion dollar spending bills passed by Congress cause inflation? And if so, are there good investments that protect against inflation?

I've heard that commodities and real estate tend to increase in value during inflation. And so, Jerry, why don't we tackle his question about the Fed printing money first? That's really a simplification. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing actually prints the money. So how does the Fed increase the money supply?

Yeah, it is an oversimplification, though it really does capture a truth, but maybe not in quite the right detailed way. Yes, the money that you carry around is printed or minted, you know, if it's coins. And that's the Bureau of Engraving. That's the federal government.

That's not the Fed. Now, most money isn't that money. Most of the money, think about just yourself. How much of your money is in your pocket?

What proportion? Well, for most people, very little of it. Most of it's in the bank, for example. And then there's wealth that's in investments. So how exactly is the Fed doing this?

Okay, it's not that complicated. I just said most of your money's at the bank for most people. Some people put it in the mattress, but most of us put it, you know, in the bank. So you've got money at the bank. Well, that's where you put your savings. Where does the bank put its money? It puts money with the Fed. The Fed is the bank to the banks. And we call our savings accounts or checking accounts, they call theirs reserve accounts.

All right. So how does the Fed create money as opposed to print? They create an electronic entry.

They have the legal authority. Nobody else has this legal authority to simply create an entry in the computer and say, voila, here's money. And then they put that in the account of the banks. So banks have their savings account with the Fed increased. And now the Fed gets something in exchange for that. The banks give them investments. They give them bonds usually in order to do that. So they're creating new money supply. Now there's also, it's gotten more complicated. The Fed is doing a lot of things it never did before, like quantitative easing, where it's going out and buying right out there in the open market rather than just working through the banks.

But by and large, the way they're creating money is simply creating entries and putting it in the bank accounts of the banks who have money deposited with them. Yeah. Fascinating. So how would you describe the Fed's policy of expanding the money supply since the onset of the pandemic versus prior? Supernova. Just incredibly explosive compared to prior. Almost a third of all money that has ever been created has been created in the last year and a half in the US economy.

So you think about all from 1770 to actually 1789 till 2020, and then another third on top of that. So it's really been incredibly expansive amount of money supply creation. And just like a supernova, there's a flash.

You don't feel it right away, but eventually it hits. And what we've seen is the money creation from a year, year and a half ago is now hitting us in the form of higher prices. Hmm. Well, we're going to unpack that a bit more.

Does that increase in the money supply automatically cause more inflation? And what does that mean for you? We'll also tackle the rest of Kurt's question, specifically related to the national debt and a whole host of issues. Our good friend and economist, Jerry Boyer, with us today.

I hope you'll stay with us. A lot more to come just around the corner. Welcome back to MoneyWise Live. Joining us today, our good friend and economist, Jerry Boyer. Jerry is the author of the maker versus the takers. What Jesus really said about social justice and economics.

It's a must read if you haven't already. We're tackling a listener question today. In fact, Jerry's providing some insights on an email we received from Kurt in Colorado. He wanted to know about the printing of money that's taking place, specifically the Fed expanding the money supply as a result of the pandemic and whether that's automatically going to lead to inflation as well as potential investments that could act as a hedge against that inflation. And Jerry, just before the break, you were explaining how the Fed goes about not printing money because that's, of course, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, but how they expand the money supply as they lend to banks through electronic journal entries. And let's talk about that massive increase in the expansion of the money supply. As you said, a third of all the money that's ever been created has been created in the last 18 months, which is a scary thought in and of itself. Is that automatically, Jerry, going to lead to inflation?

Well, that's a good question. So let's do it two versions. Does that automatically lead to new inflation always? And will it lead to new inflation now? I think it does not automatically lead to new inflation always. And that's why, and you and I have been talking about this, you know, for more than a decade, Rob.

That's right. And there's a lot of time advisors have talked to you or to me about clients who heard something on talk radio or some video run around the internet, 2009, 10, 11, 12 blood moons, great reset, a whole bunch of stuff where they're saying it's about to happen. The dollar is going to collapse. We're going to have hyperinflation.

You're going to have to get your food from a dumpster, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And a lot, you and a lot of kingdom advisors folks had to talk a lot of scared people down from that. Um, so there, there have been a lot of predictions of hyperinflation that have not come true.

Um, why didn't they come true? Because they, they, they didn't get how the economy works. They didn't get that there's a global economy. So if the central bank creates a lot of new money and essentially gives it to the regular banks, why didn't that lead to inflation when they were doing it in 2009, 10, 11, 12? Well, the reason it didn't is because the banks hoarded that money because not only did the fed say, Hey, here's some money. They also said, but wait a second before you lend that out to people, we're going to pay you interest on that money. We're going to pay you to not lend it out. So they were kind of like hitting the accelerator and the brake pedal at the same time, which is not a good way to drive.

Um, you're going to burn out your brakes. Um, so that money didn't get out of the banks very much into the economy. And if it's not out here, if it doesn't get to us, then it's not chasing those goods.

All right. But something else happened. There was this terrible European debt crisis, and then there was also a Japanese debt crisis. And what happened is some of the money that the fed created foreigners came in and said, I'm so worried about the Euro that I want to hold on to a lot of dollars. Um, or I'm so worried about the yen that I want to hoard dollars. So some of the dollars were hoarded by banks here. And a lot of the dollars were hoarded overseas. Well, if they're hoarded by banks here, they're not circulating here, no inflation.

If they're overseas, well, then they're not circulating here. So no inflation here. And that's why, despite a lot of increase in money supply, we didn't get it, but that's not what's happening now. The dollar's falling. Foreign investors don't really trust the dollar anymore. The political pressure is now on banks, go out and lend, stimulate your way out of this. So now the money that is being created by the central bank really is circulating. And it really is circulating here, which is why prices are rising. Jerry, we've all heard about the constraints in the supply side. As we reopen during the pandemic and with the Delta variant, we've reopened. And then in some cases we're having to close back up for good reason.

Uh, but because of that, there's not a lot of goods being created or as many as there were because there's just workers that, uh, you know, many of them are home still and, uh, we're not seeing the inventories across the board. Uh, is that making this worse? Absolutely. And shipping costs are very high, uh, as well. So it's hard to, I mean, we have a global supply chain and so it's harder to keep up with that.

Yeah. We're seeing in the data, you and I are going to do a webinar and not too long, or we're going to show that the supply chain is having trouble keeping up with the, with the spending. And when that's the case, that causes prices to rise. So we talked about too much, too many dollars chasing too few goods. And we showed how, well, they have to be chasing the goods, right? That's what dollars actually have to be.

They have to be here in the U S and they have to be circulating to be chasing the goods. The other side of that is too few goods. Now we've got the too many dollars.

We've got the chasing and we have the too few goods. So all of the inflationary forces, everything is working against this kind of a perfect storm. Now I think supply chains are going to heal pretty quickly.

You know, your market participants are pretty agile. Um, but nevertheless, um, the right now right now the inflationary pressures are high and rising. And even when the supply chain heals and we have normal production, it can't keep up with 20, 30, 40% increases in money supply. Um, these still, you know, you have to create more goods than you're creating money in order to keep prices from rising. And we are much, we seem to be much better at creating money than we are at creating stuff at the moment. Yes.

So as you said, when the supply chains heal, that will help, but the fed's target would be inflation at around 2%. You feel like that's going to be a challenge. Yeah. And couple of things, one, they've said 2% and then one day they said two and a half percent. Uh, and it's like, okay, wait a minute. When did we decide this? And, um, oh, and also they, it's not two and a half percent in the short run. We have to have two and a half percent on average.

Oh wait. So if we had 1% for a long time, then we've got to have, you know, over three, we have to have three and a half percent, you know, for a long time to make that the average. And then they said it has to be the average for quote, an extended period of time.

So they keep moving the goalposts. And by the way, when they say inflation, they don't mean the one that the rest of us are looking at CPI, like the basket of goods. They chose an easier, greater, I'm not going to get into the technical side, but if ground beef becomes too expensive and you buy ground chicken instead, um, CPI counts that ground beef went up a lot. The measure that the fed is using doesn't count that it says, oh look, prices didn't really go up because we bought ground chicken rather than ground beef and ground chicken isn't as expensive.

Come on. That's inflation. If you lower your standard of living, nothing against ground chicken, but I prefer ground beef and that's why it's more expensive. If you lower your standard of living because of prices that should count as higher inflation, it shouldn't count as, oh, just changing patterns and behavior. So the fed has done a lot, a little, you know, a lot of little workarounds, a lot of, you know, kind of the Pharisees. Here's a, here's a rule, but here's an exception. Here's an exception. Here's an exception.

They've done a lot of little workarounds to give themselves the ability to inflate for a long time before imposing a little discipline. Interesting. Well, we could talk about this for hours here.

We have just a minute left. Last question. How should this affect our listeners' personal finances and investments? Well, I think we, we need to be more disciplined because our government is taking money from us. Tom Sowell is right about that. This is theft. There's no other way about it.

And Christian theologians have known that for 500, 600 years. This is just another way of, this is just Naboth's Vineyard, but in a subtle technical way, they're taking wealth, which means they're making us poorer, which means that you need to stick to your budget even more strictly. And maybe your budget has to take account for the fact that your pay raises might not be keeping up with price hikes.

There's an investment side to this. I'm not an advisor. I help advisors think about this. Uh, so you want to talk to your advisor. Now we just finished a big research project here at Boyer Research.

There are certain investments that act as inflation hedges and I can tell you what they are, but that's different than telling you what to buy because there's a whole personal picture advisor relationship. Very good. We'll pick it up there next time we're together. Jerry, I appreciate you stopping by. Always a pleasure. Economist Jerry Boyer has been our guest today. You can read his insightful articles at townhall.com.

Much more to come just around the corner. Thanks for joining us on MoneyWise Live. I'm Rob West, your host.

We're thrilled to have you along with us today. Taking your calls and questions next, here's the number 800-525-7000. That's 800-525-7000. We'd love to hear from you. Whatever's on your mind today, financially speaking, we'll take a look at God's word, see how we can pull out the principles that apply to your situation and give you some practical advice to move forward. Again, lines are open.

800-525-7000. Always great to have Jerry Boyer, our good friend and economist stop by. You know, this is a topic that a lot of people are thinking about. Where is inflation headed?

What about the printing presses or the electronic expansions of the balance sheet that the Federal Reserve has been embarking upon? What does that mean for the future? And we always appreciate Jerry shedding some light on that.

Clearly the principles we find in Scripture that apply to each one of us apply to nations as well. And so we're going to need to heed that counsel and perhaps make some changes moving forward as we rein in spending and try to balance our budgets and get that national debt going the other way. A lot more to talk about related to these subjects, and we will continue to process them in the days ahead. But we want to get to what's on your mind. So again, we'd love to hear from you. We're going to go to the phones here in just a second. The lines are open at 800-525-7000.

We'll begin today in Chicago, Illinois. Hello, Al. How can I help you, sir? Hello, sir. I'm pulling over immediately. Okay, you be safe.

And when you're ready, go right ahead. Yes. So my tax preparer said that I had to make a minimum donation in order to deduct my charitable donations. She said 20,000. Is that true? Is there such a minimum donation or do I need to get a new tax preparer and trade my sister in? She's the one that does that.

Very good. Well, it sounds like she's giving you... You get what you pay for. Well, I'm not going to be the one to say she's saying anything wrong because she's not. What she's probably referring to, Al, is that you've got to get above the standard deduction in order to itemize. And when you itemize, that's your ability to add in your charitable contributions. You know, when they doubled the standard deduction to what is for 2021, $12,550 for individuals and $25,100 for married couples, they put you in a position where you automatically get that deduction. And so there's no benefit to you if you don't contribute, or at least if all of your expenses you wish to itemize don't exceed, as a married couple, that $25,100, then you're going to opt for the standard deduction. But if you exceed that, then you have the opportunity to itemize. And that's where total deductible expenses, including charitable contributions that are above that, would allow you to fully maximize the benefit of those gifts. So she's probably referring to that.

And if you're not getting above that number, then you're not going to specifically be able to take those against your tax return, if that makes sense. Can I say something really quickly? Sure.

Yeah. So you said I would not be receiving benefits if if I don't go beyond that. But that's not true, because I love the Lord.

We can't outgive the Lord. And that's where my benefits are going to come from. So I'm going to keep on giving. And well, first of all, I'm delighted to hear you say that. Go ahead. Yeah.

And for anyone who needs advice on finances, I would say, go west, young man, go west. Well, thank you, Al. I would completely concur, by the way. You were asking about whether or not on your tax return you could deduct it. That is completely separate from the benefits we receive from being partnered with the Lord and using a part of what he's entrusted to us and getting that into circulation in God's economy.

Completely different scenario. And I would fully underscore the idea that we don't give to get. We don't give because of a tax deduction. We give because it's an act of obedience. It's an act of worship.

It calibrates our hearts to the Father and allows us to participate where God is at work. That should be enough motivation for us. And if we get a little tax incentive along the way, well, so be it. But I love your heart, Al. I think you should stay with your sister as your tax preparer. It sounds like the price is right. And she's doing you a great service. Thanks for weighing in and calling today. Eight hundred, five, two, five, seven thousand is the number to call. This is MoneyWise Live. Let's head to Florida, Margaret.

You're up next. How can I help you? Yes, I would like to know what is better to do, a will or a trust? Yeah, well, it's really depending upon your situation, Margaret. You know, most often a trust is used for folks that have a higher level of estate value. So we would typically be thinking of somebody that has in excess of, you know, maybe a half a million to a million dollars or they have significant real estate holdings. The primary benefit to a trust is if, A, you want to have the passing of your estate to happen outside of probate.

You don't want it a part of the public record. You want to appoint a trustee where you have considerations as to the timing of the distribution for your estate beyond your life. So if you're giving to minors or a lifelong dependent where you want certain triggering events to prompt the distribution of your estate over time, not all at once, like would happen as with a will where it's distributed through the probate court at one time. A trust can govern all of that, both after your death, as well as if you're incapacitated prior to your death. So there are certain things that a will, excuse me, that a trust will bring a revocable trust as opposed to a will, which would basically just govern how your personal effects and estate is distributed at the time of death only. And that would happen through the executor and through the probate court.

So I think what's perhaps next for you to do is if you believe there may be a reason that you'd want to trust, which would be probably around $1,500 to $2,000 as opposed to $300 to $500 for a will, I'd sit with a godly estate planning attorney and just walk through that decision-making process and get some counsel. I hope that's helpful to you. 800-525-7000. We've got lines open for MoneyWise Live. I'm Rob West. We'll be right back.

Stay with us. Thanks for tuning in to MoneyWise Live. I'm Rob West, your host. Hey, if you checked out our new website at MoneyWiseLive.org, we'd love for you to take a visit. You'll find our Learn section with all of the best content and Christian finance videos, articles, and podcasts, our Manage section where you can access the MoneyWise app. Our MoneyWise community is there as well where you can create a free user account and post a question that our MoneyWise coaches will weigh in on. You can also find a certified Kingdom advisor and listen to broadcast archives of this program.

It's all there. MoneyWiseLive.org. Visit today. And by the way, while you're there, create a free account and we'll deliver to you each week our brand new email called the MoneyWise Weekly Wisdom where we pull together what we believe are the best articles and videos from that week and deliver them to your inbox. So consistently over time, you can understand the heart of God as it relates to your money.

That's what we want to help you do here at MoneyWise. Hey, phone lines are open today. 800-525-7000. In fact, I've got a little extra time today before I need to be at a volleyball game for my daughter this evening. So I'm going to stay after and take some extra questions.

If you've had a question you've wanted to ask for a long time, we have room for a few more today because I'll be able to give an extra 30 minutes or so. So here's the number. 800-525-7000. Whatever is on your mind. 800-525-7000. We're going to head next to Highland, Illinois. Guy, thank you for calling and for your patience today.

How can I help? Well, I wanted to add a question on coins. The coins are disappearing. It seems like they can't get changed. You know, coins are back. Yes, you're exactly right, Guy. You know, you're wondering what's happening with our coins and why we can't get them.

And you know, this is something we've talked about a couple of times in the past. There's a few reasons for what we're calling the COVID coin shortage that really kicked in last year about this time. First of all, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing has had a lot of trouble keeping the minting machines going with employees out due to the COVID pandemic. So as a result, there's just not as many coins in particular being produced. That combined, Guy, with folks using credit and debit cards more for in-store purchases as well as online. Because of the increase in online commerce, coins aren't circulating quite as much as they had in the past. And then thirdly, we've got people moving more toward online banks and not going into brick and mortar banks as often. And that means they're not bringing in the coins they've accumulated. So we've got apparently lots of piggy banks full of coins and you put all of that together, Guy, and that's resulted in a coin shortage. Doesn't mean you can't get them. There's just, they're not as plentiful these days and it's for those reasons as we continue to move more and more toward a digital economy that is governed by electronic transactions. So hopefully that's helpful to you. If you want to get your hands on some coins, just visit your local bank. I'm sure they'll work with you.

But what you're experiencing is not isolated to your locale. It's happening all over the country and we appreciate your call, my friend. Let's head to Indianapolis, Indiana. Hi, Sandra. How can I help you today?

Hi. I wanted to ask, I have two emergency care children that live in my home and I was told by the overseer of them that I should claim them on my taxes. They've been with me a little over a year and, but I live only on social security.

So I didn't know if they would do me any good at all to claim them on my taxes. I see. Yeah. Do you normally use a tax preparer, Sandra, a professional?

No, no. My granddaughter did my taxes for me. Okay.

All right. Well, you're going to want to check for some counsel regarding this specific situation, you know, that they're going to need to look at exactly how long these children are going to be with you, whether or not there would even be a benefit of claiming them as a dependent if you're even able to do that. And so I think perhaps getting some counsel, if you don't have someone in your local area, I would encourage you to visit our website moneywiselive.org, click find a CKA in the, and you'll specifically select someone in the tax and accounting area. If someone doesn't come up, then I would encourage you to ask for a referral to a godly tax preparer or accountant that can look at your situation and tell you specifically whether or not this makes sense.

There'd be just too many details associated with that for me to weigh in specifically. But listen, so thankful for you taking these kids in and giving them a place to live while, Lord willing, their permanent situation is sorted out. And I know you'll get some good counsel there. And let us know how that turns out. We appreciate you calling in today. 800-525-7000 is the number to call.

Let's head to Florida, WKZM. Susan, how can I help you? Oh, yeah.

Hi. Thanks for taking my call. I just have a couple questions. I have an appointment on Wednesday with the attorney that put my will together when I was single kind of suddenly about six years ago. And at this point, I just want to make sure, since I do have a will, that, you know, I should I make it a trust?

Who's the power of attorney? I have just certain questions that are coming up through conversations I'm having with other people. Is there something I just don't want to miss out, you know, every minute counts with an attorney appointment. I just don't want to miss any of the questions I should be asking.

And I know you're sending me Ron Blue's book, which I appreciate very much. So, that hasn't arrived yet. But in terms of, like, the power of attorney, they do all of the management when you pass. And so, should that be if I have two children? Should that just be one? Or is that going to, should I make somebody neutral, somebody outside the family? I'm just not sure.

And then there's something called the purse stirrups if one child dies. Anyway, I'm just wondering if there's anything I'm missing. Should I just ask the kind of questions I'm asking you? Yeah, you should, because that's going to be the person, this is an estate planning attorney, this is their specialty. This is what they do. And so, they'll walk you through all of these things, understanding what a power of attorney is. I mean, essentially, it's a legal document giving somebody the power to act for another person. And they have, can have broad legal authority, or it can be limited to certain aspects of somebody's, you know, life, property or finances or medical care.

There's obviously a host of other issues you're going to want to consider. I think you were probably referring to the executor and who should that person be? What are the traits, the qualities of that person, somebody who's detail-oriented and not necessarily always the oldest child in every family, but somebody who has a good financial footing under them personally, meaning they've been able to handle their finances well and can make a prudent decision acting on your behalf. And then there's just a host of other issues you can tackle at the same time, a living will and a healthcare surrogate. And then, as you said, looking at a will you already have that needs to be updated, or perhaps even putting a trust in place.

So, I think you've just need to take some time to write down all of your questions so that you can get everything answered as you go in to see that estate planning attorney. And they'll have a process to walk you through all of that so that when you leave, you've covered all of your bases. And I'm glad to hear you're doing this, Susan. Thank you so much for joining us. Glad to hear you're doing this, Susan. We hope that that goes really, really well.

Folks, we've got one line open, 800-525-7000. We're going to pause for a brief break, but much more to come on MoneyWise Live. Stay with us. Welcome back to MoneyWise Live. I'm Rob West. We've got a full lineup of calls.

Good news, though. I'm staying after for a few minutes. So, we'll get through all of these between now and, well, maybe 30 minutes after the show is over today.

But we're going to stop just for a moment because I'm so excited. Every Monday in this segment, we're joined by my good friend and market veteran, Bob Doll. Bob is Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global Investments where investments and values intersect.

They're a faith-based boutique investment firm that provides a full suite of investment strategies to clients and institutional investors. And Bob, always appreciate what you're seeing in the markets just to help us navigate and understand the times in which we find ourselves and what that might be saying about where the market and the economy is headed from here. Talk about the growth rates that you're seeing in the U.S. and abroad and what that might mean for the equity markets. Yeah, so the growth in the economy, Rob, as you know, is strong. It's weaker than it was when we talked a couple of months ago, but still stronger than usual.

And that's what's got a lot of people confused. Wait a minute, it's slowing down, but it's still really strong. Is it good or is it bad?

And the answer is because the second derivative is negative. People are concerned, but by and large is positive. Yes, obviously, headwinds in the form of COVID-19 that we thought was behind us in July and then the Delta variant hit and it's been really tough. Is it too early to determine what effect this extension of the pandemic might have on the economy? For sure, because we don't know where and how much worse it's going to get and how much it's going to cause consumers to say, well, you know what?

I think I'll just wait to take that vacation. And if enough of us do that, that dampens spending. And we're seeing some evidence of that. We saw that in the jobs number earlier this month.

It was woefully short of expectations. And some of the reason probably is COVID skittishness. Yes. What about inflation, Bob? Do you think we've leveled off or are you expecting to see continued rises in inflation in certain sectors of the economy?

So this one's complicated, but I'll try to make it simple. Headline inflation over the next 12 months almost certainly will fall, but that's because some of the transitory inflation will disappear underneath the surface. However, there are longer term inflation concerns.

Just look at wage rates as a perfect example of that. So it's going to be a confusing bunch of months. The bulls will say, I told you, don't worry about inflation. And the bears will say, but look at what's still less than inflation after this transitory stuff leaves. We're really not going to know the truth for at least 12 more months. Ah, interesting.

All right. So longer term. Last question, Bob, the debt ceiling. We've heard a lot about that in the news. Is that much to do about nothing or is there something we need to be concerned about there? So every time this happens, we get concern and it always turns out not to be a concern because in the 12th hour, Congress says, oh, we got to get this done.

My guess is that's the way we'll end it up, end up again this time, Rob. But there could be some consternation and fingernail biting between here and there. Yes.

It seems like when Washington's involved, that's always the case. Bob, looking forward in summary, we need to expect probably an upward trend. But modest expectations, I guess, huh? Yes.

Choppier is what I've been arguing. And the pace of increases certainly slowed. I mean, as of last Friday, we had five negative days in a row. That's the first time we've seen that many months. Today, we had a bit of a rebound, but it was it was mixed.

NASDAQ was down for the day. So we're going to have a bumpier ride. I would expect some sort of corrective activity between here and the end of the year.

But as long as the economy and earnings are OK, stocks are not going to have a big downturn, most likely. All righty. Well, I'm going to let you go.

I know you're joining us from the Getty Singh Conference. And so you enjoy yourself and we appreciate you giving us a few minutes. Thank you.

You might have heard it in the background. Apologies. No problem.

Bless you, my friend. We'll talk to you next week. Bob Dahl, chief investment officer of Crossmark Global Investments.

You can learn more at Crossmark Global dot com. Back to the phones today. Liberty Hill, Texas.

I believe it's Syra. Did I say that correct? You did very well.

How can I help you? Just a quick question. I'm actually thinking about refinancing my current loan when I purchased my home two years, three years ago. It was a it was a second home, but I've now moved into it. But so obviously my interest rate was a little bit higher.

I got it at four point five. And I know that I can get it lower now. Yes. My question is, I'm only thinking about being there no more than five years because we're building a home somewhere else. But my my question is, is it worth it to refinance it for a lower interest rate if I'm only going to be there for, you know, obviously no, I mean, we're hoping in two, three years, but no more than five years.

Okay. You know, given the fact that you may only be there two years, Syra, I would say you need to pass as much as I'd love as much as I'd love for you to take advantage of these low, low interest rates. The amount that it's going to cost you to refinance this just the pure cost of the transaction is going to negate the benefits you will receive over time, month by month in the reduction in the interest rate.

Consequently, it's probably not going to make it worthwhile, not to mention the time and effort you're going to put into collecting the bids and going through the closing process and providing all the documentation. So I just sit tight, continue paying on that mortgage every month. And when you're ready to buy something else, I'm confident, even though rates might be a little bit higher than we're seeing today, because the general direction is up as interest rates increase. Historically speaking, we're still going to be in a very low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future. So I'd sit this one out, given the changes that are coming in your financial life, unfortunately, but we appreciate you checking in with us.

On to Sarasota, Florida. Hi, Bill, how can I help you, sir? Yes, sir. I have a traditional IRA that is from a couple 457s and a 401k that from previous employers. So I'm not currently placing any money in it. I have a 401k through my employer currently that I have maxed out. And I had talked to my financial advisor who holds the one IRA about starting a Roth IRA, because my accountant suggested it, and that I would put the money in after it was taxed and go tax free. And my financial advisor told me I couldn't do that because I was maxing out my 401k, which didn't make sense. And I read, you know, just Googled it and stuff, and I can't seem to find anything there. The only reason I see you can't have a Roth IRA is if you make too much money.

So I was wondering if you could just tell me about that. Yeah, well, the bottom line is, you know, you can have both a 401k and an individual retirement account. And that can include a Roth. You need to make sure that you're underneath, as you said, the amount that you make in terms of your compensation, your income each year in order to be able to contribute on a tax. Well, it was the after tax contributions, but to be able to get the tax free growth and then put the money in the Roth, you've got to make under that threshold that you mentioned, but as long as you do, then you absolutely could max out both. Now, you couldn't contribute to both the traditional IRA and a Roth, but you could do the Roth and the 401k.

So I would check back with your financial advisor just to see if perhaps you misunderstood or there's some confusion as to your situation and ask for further explanation, because what I'm hearing, at least you describe, you shouldn't have a problem doing that. So we appreciate your call today, Bill. Thanks for listening and checking in with us quickly onto Sarasota, Florida.

Hannah, how can I help you? Thanks, Rob. My question is my husband and I own a one man business and we have been praying over when to hire our first employee. Do you have any financial insight on that?

Yeah. You know, I'd wait as long as you can in the sense that, you know, what you've got to look at is, first of all, just your historical cash flow to make sure that as you add more overhead, you're not doing it prematurely, given especially some of the uncertainties we have in our economy right now. You know, we thought we were beyond the pandemic and obviously this Delta variant kind of hit us with a whole second wave that's been really tough. And so, you know, depending on what type of business you're in, if you're being affected by either seasonal factors or the pandemic, certainly you'd want to be careful as to how you expand your overhead. So those historical trends plus the most recent six months to a year will give you a good understanding of that. But obviously the extent to which you can move this business beyond you where everything's dependent upon you and give you the ability to work on the business instead of in the business, which is a pretty big distinction because, you know, as you begin to hire appropriately, not getting ahead of yourself, but in due time, that gives you the ability to really focus on, focusing on managing the business well as opposed to everything being dependent upon the hours that you're putting in. And that's when you build something of value that allows you to have more freedom and even to see more growth over time. I think the other thing that's really important, Hannah, and you guys already may be doing this, is just make sure you have a good set of clean books for the business that's not mixed with your personal finances. You know, you want to keep everything separate both on the expenses as well as how you compensate yourself out of the business into your personal finances so that you can truly evaluate how the business is doing. You know, when we get everything all mixed together, it's very difficult to actually see whether the business is growing and how it's doing over time and, you know, how are we doing versus last year or two years ago and what are the trends we can draw from that?

Well, having that separate and clean set of books, I think, really helps you tell a story as to where this is headed and will help you make that decision as to what is the right timing on hiring that first employee beyond yourself. So all the best to you. This is an exciting season. It sounds like God is blessing your efforts and we appreciate you checking in with us today. Well, folks, we're out of time. That's going to do it for us today, but I appreciate you checking in with us.

MoneyWise Live is a partnership between MoneyWise Media and Moody Radio. I want to say thank you to Amy and Dan and Jim. Appreciate them being here today and we'll look forward to having you back tomorrow with us, Lord willing. We'll see you then. May God bless you. Bye-bye.
Whisper: medium.en / 2023-08-23 06:40:30 / 2023-08-23 06:57:50 / 17

Get The Truth Mobile App and Listen to your Favorite Station Anytime