Parrino: Bills Will Beat Chiefs On Sunday

Matt, how are you? I'm good. How are you?

I'm excellent. Well, I guess everybody's familiar with these two teams. We watch them all the time. They're on all the big time, prime time games. What needs to happen for these Buffalo Bills to finally get over the Kansas City Chiefs hump? I mean, I really think it comes down to the fact that these two teams, no matter what, regular season, postseason, they play each other so close.

I think it was somebody put out a graphic early in the week. Their last 10 games, each team's won five and each team has scored 251 points in those games. So about as even a matchup as you'll find in modern sports in the NFL and everything else. So it comes down to in those key moments, third and shorts, key moments in the fourth quarter, not committing turnovers. Like all of those little things on the road for the Bills against this Chiefs team, they're going to add up over the course of a game. And they did last week. I mean, it wasn't an explosive Josh Allen performance. The defense, they forced three turnovers.

Those were the splash plays, but they also allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for a couple touchdowns and Derrick Henry to control the game in the third quarter, but they found ways to win. That's been the story of the Bills' season. They got to find a way to win in a place that they've never won in the playoffs with Josh Allen under center.

Well, Matt, what is the feeling in Western New York surrounding Josh Allen? We know he's an MVP candidate. Do people even care about the individual awards?

People would call me all the time, MVP, MVP, MVP. I said, yeah, but go to the Superbowl first. Yeah, it's a funny kind of dynamic, right? Because I think Josh Allen has embraced the city. Like, I mean, I don't know if there's ever been an athlete that's truly embraced Buffalo the way that Josh has. And because of that, there's this passion for him and love for him that I do think the fan base wants his individual success and his individual value to be measured in a way nationally that would come with an MVP award, but don't get it twisted. I mean, you know, everybody here knows the value of a Superbowl. And, you know, this is a fan base that if you remember back in the early nineties, went to four straight and all four of those years, they were the runner up. And so to have now the opportunity with a franchise quarterback, with a team that's winning 10 plus games every year.

And it just feels like it's their, their year in so many different ways. This is the most beatable, or at least it seems they've always, there's always the holes that you could poke in a dynasty and in a great team that has had all these great moments. And they, all they've done this year is won 15 regular season games. And then, uh, onto the playoffs where, you know, they took care of Houston pretty easily last week. So it's easy to poke the holes, but this is a team that's so well balanced. And the thing too, that I think people have to understand nationally is that Brandon being has been, he spent the last four years since that AFC title game loss in 2020, 2021, building this roster and this team in the image of the chiefs with the hope to beat the chiefs.

Like it's built. That's why last week was such a bad matchup. They don't match up well against a run heavy team, right? They match up better to defend Patrick Mahomes. They built their defensive line that way. They're linebackers. Mavilano wasn't available in this game last, last year. He's going to be on Sunday and they're hoping that that's a big difference maker. Well, Matt, you talk about the John Shaolin and obviously the hopes of, of this team getting to the super bowl and winning.

They got a guy on the team that they brought in to try to help do that. He has two super bowl rings with two different organizations. That's that's Von Miller, whether it's his legal issues or his injuries. Is he good to go? He looked good in that last game. He's not playing every, every down. What are your thoughts on how he's kind of hit his stride, I guess now at this stage of the season?

Yeah, he wasn't available. He played against the Chiefs last year, but last year was kind of just like a, like a washed year for him because coming off of that injury at his age, he just never looked like the old Von Miller and he had zero sacks in 14 games last year. It was really, he rewrote the story a little bit this season, but when he first got to Buffalo, if you remember in that regular season game, he had a sack, his pressures were off the charts. And then again, this season against the Chiefs, he sacked Patrick Mahomes and had a big game in that, in that game.

And he's bounced back. He's not the Von Miller that you remember from the Rams super bowl and certainly not the Denver super bowl, but he still has the ability on third down to be a factor as a pass rusher. That's what they're going to need him to be. But it really, the star that's kind of starting to shine on that defensive line is Greg Russo on the outside. He's had some of his biggest games against the Chiefs since the bills drafted a lot of Miami in 2020, and they're going to need him to be a real problem as a pass rusher on the edge. They also like to move him inside on third downs. They like to, you know, run some, some games with their defensive line where he'll twist inside and rush at different levels of that line. So, uh, it's that, that's also been the other storyline with these two teams is that the bills have spent so much draft capital and money on their defensive line to try to deal with Patrick Mahomes. But in the biggest game against Mahomes, they've come up short in the last three playoff games, a total of three sacks combined in those games, they got to get to Mahomes, they have to affect Mahomes and they feel like they're, they're built now more than ever to do that.

Matt Perino is joining us from Syracuse.com. If we take a look at the offensive side of the ball, we know that, hey, heading into this season, it was going to be a little bit more of a, of a spread around with no Stefan Diggs. They acquire Amari Cooper back in October, and he hasn't necessarily been used or targeted as much. Why has that been the case? And, and should we expect a little bit of an uptick this upcoming Sunday or this weekend?

It's always a factor. Uh, and it honestly will depend on what the bill, what the chiefs do and how they deploy Trent McDuffie. They're, they're superstar cornerback. He could play on the boundary. He can match up against an Amari Cooper or rookie Kion Coleman, but the bills best wide receiver in that game in week 11 was Khalil Shakir and he operates primarily out of the slot.

So they moved McDuffie in. Now you have a couple of boundary cornerbacks that I feel like the bills will probably look to target and potentially attack. And that's where Cooper really comes into the game.

He had two huge plays against the chiefs in week 11. And, you know, they just become such a run centric offense that at times he's not out there. Like they're not asking 31 year old Amari Cooper to get, to roll his sleeves up and get dirty in the run game.

Like he did probably four or five years ago, they asked veteran Mac Collins to do that. He's a, an elite level blocker at the wide receiver position and he plays a ton of the snaps and Coleman is shown some ability to make strides in that department too. And then you look at the tight end, Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, they're on the field a ton together. When they're out there by themselves, they look for them to be blockers and involved in the passing game. So yeah, could, could Cooper have a big game?

This one? Yes, but they've been built to be able to compete even if some of the bigger names aren't necessarily the ones that are going up. I mean, you think back to that Lions game when the bills went off and that fireworks show, it was Ty Johnson, their third down running back that had this explosive game, a touchdown. I think it went for 80 yards receiving and over 150 total all purpose yards. They have playmakers at every position and every spot on the depth chart. Well, Matt, with all the offense that they have spread around, I don't even think in some regards, James Cook gets as much respect as that he deserves. What are you expecting from this game on Sunday? I'm sure you think it's going to be a close one.

What should we look out for? Yeah, I think Cook is, is definitely somebody that they're looking to get heavily involved. They struggled to run the ball against the Chiefs in week 11, but I do think that this Chiefs run defense has been susceptible to big games on the ground, down the stretch. With that said, Cook's real evolution this season has been in the red zone. He is such a physical runner, something that wasn't really his MO coming out of Georgia. People thought he was going to be more of a third down, change your pace kind of back, and he's turned into a red zone threat. So with Cook, Johnson, and then you obviously have Josh Allen, the runner, that's the difference maker for me is like when Josh Allen gets involved in the run game and he always does against the Chiefs. He is going to run design runs. He's going to scramble. He's going to, you know, that one fourth and two touchdown run against the Chiefs in week 11, that was off script that, you know, he just saw an opening and hit the hole and the rest is history and he's going to try to make himself a big part of the passing game because, or in the rushing game, he's so good in that department. Matt, are you predicting a Buffalo Bills victory?

I am. I got the Bills going on the road and getting a 28-26 win. I've been back and forth on it all week. It's so hard to pick any team going into Arrowhead in the playoffs and winning. It just feels like their year in so many different ways, maybe famous last words, but they found ways to win and they do have in their back pocket, if you remember that one game years ago when Josh Allen just went crazy in the fourth quarter, bringing them back time after time after time after time after time, he had some of his best moments in the Arrowhead. So I think they're going to bank on that and I'm picking them in a slight victory. Sean McDermott has been criticized in a lot of cases for not getting this team over the hump.

If they do not end up victorious on Monday, I'm assuming some Bills fans who might want to give them the boot, they're just going to have to get over it. They're not going to let him go, right? Oh yeah, his seat is as cool as probably anybody's in the NFL is outside of maybe Andy Reid, right? The ownership group loves him. He's created a culture of winning. If you think about it, six playoff appearances in seven seasons since he arrived. He is winning 10-plus games every season and this year, you remember the conversations we were having in August nationally about this team. It was a huge step back and was it going to be Aaron Rodgers and the Jets that took over the AFC East or Tua and McDaniel and Tyreek down in Miami and all the Bills have done this season is vanquish every single one of them. They basically went perfect in the division outside of that last week game where they lost to the Patriots and didn't play anybody. But they went undefeated at home and this is about as complete and deep a team as they've had and they literally moved on from five captains from last year's team.

So I think that Sean McDermott is very much safe. I think he's gotten much better in some areas where people have criticized game management, decision making, situational football awareness. But now he's got to do it on the big stage and I think he actually said something interesting on Monday when he was asked about if you think back to that 2020 championship game against the Chiefs. He went for a field goal on fourth and two deep in that territory down eight and he was heavily criticized for that and he said he learned from that. It's one of the reasons why over time he's become more aggressive because you know on the road against this team you need those points, you need touchdowns and I think that he'll be better off for it in a game like this. Well for a lack of or outside of a lack of of success in getting to the Super Bowl, I mean have Bill's fans that have been overly critical of him have we reached the point of Bill's fans being spoiled with the regular season? Is that why they can't stand this guy sometimes? Well there's a lot of things. There was that big story that came out last year about some of the stuff that went on behind the scenes and learning a little bit more about like because that they've been a very buttoned up organization since McDermott took over. So not a lot of like intel on the operation but some coaches with some you know didn't always feel respected or felt like you know it wasn't a very cooperative culture but of course those were coaches that had moved on at that point right. So not going to talk probably well of a boss that maybe let you go or it didn't work out with but not whether that's here or there I think the big piece is can do you trust the guy in the big moments against the best teams in the playoffs and I think there's a faction of the fan base that just doesn't trust him in those moments but he has a chance to earn some big-time trust on Sunday.

He sure as hell does. Hey Matt thank you so much for the time. Where can people follow you and your work with Syracuse.com? Yeah I'm at Matt Perino P-A-R-R-I-N-O over on X and all the social platforms and it's the shout Buffalo Bills football podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Hey Matt thank you so much. Enjoy the weekend enjoy the game okay. Thank you have a good one.