Dieter Kurtenbach, Bay Area News Group Columnist

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Download the free app today and make the most of your summer with all trails. Hey Dita, how are you, man? I'm doing good. I am not disgruntled. So mark me in the not disgruntled category and put me up against seemingly everybody else. I hear that.

I'm in the same boat as you. I'm not disgruntled. For now, I'm very happy.

Well, let me ask you, let me ask you this, Dita. We got the introductory press conference today of Clay Thompson out in Dallas. How has the fan base, how have the fans pretty much dealt with the understanding that the Splash Brothers are no more? I don't know if it's hit anybody yet, if I'm being honest.

I don't think 13 years gets washed away over the course of eight, nine days in July. And I do think that today was step one towards finally recognizing the new reality. But I don't think that one introductory press conference is going to do all that much to jostle people into the new reality. I think that it's going to take probably not just one, but maybe even a couple of weeks of games of Clay Thompson wearing a very ugly 31 in Dallas for people to quite get their heads on the idea that Clay Thompson is not a Golden State Warrior. And I think once we get to that point, there's some high level analysis and high level opinions that can be properly shared. But in the meantime, it just, it just all feels very wrong. And it might turn out feeling a okay for the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks. But in the meantime, it just doesn't sit right with anybody except for it seems Clay Thompson.

Dieter Kertenbach is joining us from the Bay Area news group. You talk about how things might be. I don't want to say in replace of do you replace a Clay Thompson?

Probably not. But they do. They do bring on a shooter. The Warriors do in his prime and a buddy healed.

They bring on an additional depth piece. We can kind of do it all as a guard and Kyle Anderson. What do you think about the fits and the guys that are coming in to kind of up the ship a little bit? Well, they fought like hell to get back to even. They had to put in some serious work, a 16 trade to get back to even. That's all they've done.

I think that if you squint really hard, you can make the argument that Kyle Anderson, buddy healed and DeAnthony Melton, who they signed on a mid-level exception that wouldn't have been available to them, had Clay Thompson not decided to leave. I think that you can squint and say, oh, that's better. And maybe it is, but it's not appreciably better.

It's not markedly better. The Golden State Warriors were a play in tournament team last year with Clay Thompson. They have now replaced Clay Thompson to whatever degree you can replace him.

A good point. And maybe even slightly improved, particularly on the defensive side, but they haven't made themselves a viable playoff option. They're still a play in team.

And I think that is maybe the most overlooked aspect of all of this. I don't think that keeping Clay Thompson would have made the Warriors a playoff team, certainly losing him. And if nothing else, losing that legacy puts the onus on the Golden State Warriors front office to do something big. And while they did do some things, I can't look anyone in the eye and say that this is a better team than the Warriors had last year. And that's taking into account the fact that Clay Thompson, frankly, wasn't very good last year and probably is in some ways addition by subtraction. But they don't have Chris Paul. They don't have Clay Thompson. And in their place, they have three decent enough players.

I don't know. I might take a bit of a umbrage with the notion that Buddy Heald is still in his prime. I've seen him be dumped by two teams in the past year. Kyle Anderson averaged six points per game last year. He's a great player. I mean, I really enjoy him and he's a good system fit.

You got punched by Rudy Gobert. That's not saying a lot either. I mean, yeah, there's this is this is still a team that's nowhere near a championship contender. And if you're going to be kind of cruddy, if you're not going to be competing for championships, at least be able to sell nostalgia. And the Warriors can't even do that anymore. And let me ask you this, Dieter, knowing that that Steph Curry is 36 years old, he's getting ready to head out to Paris in a couple of weeks as his head coach Steve Kerr is going to be a man in the ship for Team USA Basketball. Curry was on record a couple of days ago saying that, hey, you may not see another dynasty like what we did for another, you know, 10, 13 years that we had for 10, 13 years.

Those days are over. What do you do with a 36 year old once in a lifetime star? Do you sell the fact that we still have Steph Curry? What the hell do they do over the next several years? I mean, what, Kuminga is going to wake up and be Michael Jordan?

Yeah, I think that's their bet. I think that the biggest issue for this team last season was that they did not have a number two. They had an Andrew Wiggins, they had a Klay Thompson, they had a Jonathan Kuminga. And every now and again, those guys would wake up in the morning and decide that they would be the number two to Steph Curry.

They would never be a number one, but a number two. So if Steph was playing, they could provide complimentary scoring to 20 something points per game to get that collective to 50. And the rest of the team could do their work, get the team to 115, 120, which is what you need to win in the modern NBA. They are betting now that Jonathan Kuminga and maybe Andrew Wiggins, if he decides today's the day are going to do that every night, that that's, that's what's going to happen every night. And if they don't believe that in their soul, then they need to get every draft pick that they can find and throw it to Utah for Lowry marketing, because this team didn't have a number two last year.

It doesn't have a number two this year, at least in my estimation. And if they're banking on Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins Wiggins to wake up and Kuminga to decide, Hey, I'm 22 years old. We're making the leap. We're going, we're going all star level this year.

If that's what they're banking on, I'd like to be holding the other side of that check. I'd like to short that play from the wall street brokers that are the golden state warriors in this situation, because I don't think that's going to work out for them. And again, there's no guarantee that these guys are in the play in tournament. They had to fight tooth and nail last year to make the play in tournament.

We're not talking about the playoffs to the playoffs, go full Jim Mora playoffs. We'd be lucky if they win another game. If Steph Curry misses time, they're cooked. If Jonathan Kuminga doesn't turn into a number two, they're cooked. And there are so many other things that could go wrong. You got Draymond Green, who the hell knows what's going to happen with him.

They're cooked. The margin for air is so significant. There is so small and the possibilities for errors are so significant. It is a tough sell for the golden state warriors. And as for the future of Stephen Curry, he's also on the record saying that he wants to end his career as a golden state warrior, that he values what he built and everything around him has been built by him, whether directly or not or by proxy. But man, he also left the door open to saying, if I feel like that's best for me in a year from now, I'm very interested to see if Steph Curry still thinks that Golden State is the best place for him for the remainder of his career. They need a number two.

They don't have one. And if they're banking on Jonathan Kuminga, I don't like their odds. Dieter Kertenbach is joining us from the Bay Area news group. You talk about someone who's not happy today right now.

We've known this for months. Brandon Aiyuk is finding different ways to go on social media and let the world know that, hey, I want to get paid. I don't think the 49ers are going to do it. He's all they don't like me.

They're not going to pay me. I don't think he's stupid. He knows that the books are cooked. Purdy has to get paid.

There's only been so much money. What the hell is going on with Aiyuk? Are we going to see him at camp? Is he trying to become such a pain in the ass that they move him for nothing? I don't see John Lynch just handing him over to anybody. He won't.

He won't, because they've shopped him already. They've already gone to every team in the league and said, make this your best offer. And every team in the league came back and the 49ers are like, no, no, no. We said best offer. This is not a good offer for all pro wide receiver and Brandon Aiyuk. But every other team is looking around and saying, you know, they make a lot of good wide receivers in college these days. And Brandon Aiyuk, good players.

Don't get me wrong. We all like Brandon Aiyuk, but I'm not going to pay him 30, $31 million a year and trade multiple first round draft picks, which is what the 49ers want. I'll just go draft one with one of those draft picks. And then I'll have a younger guy who's probably putting up great production too.

There's so many good wide receivers in the college game. For the 49ers, they have to take into account the fact that they are very much in a Super Bowl window. And in fact, this might be the final year of their Super Bowl window, unless Brock Purdy can keep that thing open for another couple of years beyond this, once he starts getting paid. This is the final year that Brock Purdy is getting paid a literal rounding error. He makes less than a million dollars a year. Brandon Aiyuk is fighting over making 30, $31 million a year. He should ask Brock Purdy how he feels about that situation.

You're right. They all have to figure out where the money's going to go once Brock Purdy gets paid and who knows what Brock Purdy will get paid 40, 50, 60. I mean, anyone's guess is as good as mine at this juncture, given the way quarterbacks are paid. But I'll tell you what's going on with Brandon Aiyuk. One, you mentioned the social media stuff and Brandon Aiyuk is no dummy.

I can tell you that firsthand. He's a pretty sharp dude, but he is very, very bad at this. He is running a playbook right now that he is not equipped to play. He is not a wide receiver diva. He is not a Stefan Diggs.

He is not a Deebo Samuel. He is not a me, me, me guy. He doesn't want to talk to anybody.

He's an introvert. And so him doing this whole social media thing, trying to draw up attention, trying to get him traded to the Washington commanders, it just looks wrong. It rings wrong and it's not doing him any favors. Now, if we're getting down to the nitty gritty on negotiations for him and I, you've made a lot of money this off season by doing nothing, by just letting Amman Roth, St. Brown and Jalen Waddle sign their new contracts by letting Justin Jefferson reset the market. The rising tide lifted the ship of Brandon Aiyuk and all he's been doing with this social media stuff, which he has every right to do.

And I understand why he thinks it would work. All he's doing is clouding people's judgment about him, because if the 49ers do want to trade him, now they have to trade a disgruntled Brandon Aiyuk as opposed to the ultimate professional that he had been before he decided that he needed to get some TikTok followers. So if Brandon Aiyuk wants to hold on to 30, 31 million dollars a year, the 49ers aren't going to pay it. That's their line. Now, there is a number between what the 49ers have offered, which I hear is around 26 to maybe even 27 million dollars.

There is a happy medium. And if Brandon Aiyuk, who has no leverage in this situation, wants to actually negotiate as opposed to just demand a number that the 49ers have told him flat out they're not matching, if he wants to come down a little bit, if he wants to be a big boy and be a professional and his representatives specifically want to be professional and come down and actually talk about a reasonable number, I guarantee you that the 49ers will gladly come up from their 25, 26, 27 million and meet him halfway because they want to get this thing done. But Brandon Aiyuk has no leverage. The 49ers have all the leverage. And Brandon Aiyuk acting like the 49ers are the ones who have to do something.

He's got it all wrong. He and by the way, his representatives are just embarrassing themselves right now. He is too good of a player and too sharp of a guy to be acting like this in public. I just I can't I cannot imagine that he doesn't wise up here in the next two, three weeks before pads go on a training camp and realize I'm not going to get anything done unless I give a little unless I come off of this ridiculous number that I've put out for the 49ers unless I come to the table willing to give something up. If he's willing to give something up, I'm guaranteeing you that the 49ers are guaranteed or that they'll move up a little bit and meet him halfway.

But until Brandon Aiyuk decides, hey, I'm not holding on to 31 until he wants to actually negotiate. The 49ers don't have to do a thing because Brandon Aiyuk is under contract for another season. He's going to get fined.

The second training camps start and those fines start adding up quick. 49ers don't have to forgive them if they don't want to. And if he doesn't have a new contract, they won't forgive him. And then by the way, Brandon Aiyuk plays this upcoming season on the 14 million dollar fifth year option. 49ers can just turn around and say, we're going to franchise tag. And if he doesn't like that, they can franchise tag him a year after that.

And now Brandon Aiyuk has gotten a lot of money from those two franchise tags and 14 million dollar fifth year option. But he doesn't have that security that he's looking for. Again, Brandon Aiyuk is acting like he has the leverage here. He has no leverage whatsoever.

And a couple of TikToks doesn't change that. He and his representatives need to get smart and get smart fast because all he's doing is hurting his bottom dollar. But Dieter, you talk about a team that is stacked. We don't know what Brock Purdy is going to get if he has another MVP caliber season. We know he's going to be in that 50 million dollar range. They've drafted another receiver, Ricky Piersol. They gave a contract extension to Christian McCaffrey, Shanahan.

People are looking at him to say, hey, man, it's time to finally go over the hump. We know it's Super Bowl or bust. That's difficult.

That's tough. If they don't reach the Super Bowl, if they don't win the Super Bowl, then what the hell do they do next? Well, I mean, listen, there's going to be a lot more guys on the cutting room floor than Brandon Aiyuk, right? I mean, Brandon Aiyuk, they value him and they're willing to value him above what they ever thought they would have to pay him, right? And there's value in having the cost certainty of a new Brandon Aiyuk contract in hand before you start negotiating with Brock Purdy next offseason. So you need to know, hey, what's my number one receiver going to be making?

He's going to be making 26, 27, $28 million. OK, now I can operate a little bit. I can operate with some clarity as it pertains to Brock Purdy. But it's pretty clear. I mean, you mentioned the Ricky Piersol of it all. They picked him in the first round. He's been looking awesome. Many camps are not wearing pads. So we'll see once training camp comes around, once the preseason comes around, if that actually holds true.

But the answer is pretty quickly. Debo Samuels gone at the end of this season. And I think that's regardless of if Brandon Aiyuk gets a new contract or not. I just don't think that they can give Debo Samuel new contracts, which he will be wanting at the end of the season.

I think someone else will give it to him. So there will be a trade and someone else will sign Debo Samuel to a short term, but, you know, hefty extension. You're looking at Charvarious Ward, their number one corner. He's very much on the chopping block.

You're looking at a Kyle Hughes check. They already told him, hey, you're the best fullback in the league, but we got to pay you less. He took the pay cut. Eric Armstead, a key defensive tackle for this team, been on this team for a long, long time.

He's already been shown the door. They're eating a lot of dead money there. There's a lot of guys on this team who make sort of intermediate bucks that could be easily cut so that the 49ers are in a position to go ahead and keep this thing rolling. But that requires some cost certainty on Brandon Aiyuk's part, right?

That just makes the books a little bit easier to manage. It requires Brock Purdy to maybe give a little something, not go for that full bag that he probably could go for if he indeed does have another MVP caliber season, which is a tough thing to do when you've been making so little money for these first three, four years of your NFL career. And you've been winning so much. It's tough to say, I'll give a little bit up so that I can, I can help this team. And there's going to be a lot of guys who you think of as, Oh, those are core 49ers. Uh, they might not be on the 49ers anymore this time next year. So these young guys that they've been drafting, they better come through. And that's why I say, this is the final year of the super bowl window for the 49ers.

As we know it, maybe, maybe it gets extended. Maybe these young guys ball out and Brock Purdy is an MVP year in and year out, or maybe this is it. So with the Brandon Aiyuk of it all, man, he can, he can sign a long term deal at a reasonable number that was six, seven, $8 million more than we thought he was going to get in February per year. Or he can try to bring that drama into training camp, take all the fines, pay the fines, play on his fifth year option. And we can do this all again next year when the 49ers aren't going to have as much money to give him. And they are not going to maybe feel as strongly about Brandon Aiyuk because you know what?

Ricky Piersol had a really good year. We like our wide receiver depth. So in fact, your leverage of which you had very little, if any, Brandon Aiyuk, it's now all gone. And in fact, we're going to be looking to trade both of you and Deebo this year. I think Brandon Aiyuk is playing with fire here, man. And he's going to get paid a tremendous amount of money by somebody, but man, it's in his best interest to get it from the San Francisco 49ers this year, because next year, I don't know if that, if that dollar, those dollar signs are going to match up with this offseason. Well, Dieter, we know there's been plenty to look forward to over the past several seasons with the Niners. Same thing with the Warriors.

It looks like that might be a changing. Phyllis, where can people follow you and all of your great work with the Bay Area News Group? Well, I don't know about the great stuff, but it is work.

And we put it out frequently. You can follow me on X or Twitter, whatever you want to call it. It's at Dieter, D-I-E-T-E-R. And you can follow my YouTube channel at DieterKurtenbach.

If you can spell it, God bless you. So hope to see you there. Dieter, thank you so much for the great conversation and insight. And next time you come back, let's talk about the A's, OK?

Can't wait to talk about them. Man, why are you trying to depress me on a beer? I wasn't disgruntled. Now I'm disgruntled.

You're trying to rub salt in the wound. No, I'm mad. I'm mad. They're leaving myself. So we can we can we can commiserate together. We'll do it next time.

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