Navigating Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty with Bob Doll

Kingdom Advisors equips Christian financial advisors to bring their faith into their practice with the industry-recognized Certified Kingdom Advisor designation. We bring those advisors together with other industry leaders to form a vibrant network. And through that network, we give them the resources, tools, and encouragement they need to serve clients like you, helping you align your values with your financial decisions and investments.

To learn more, visit KingdomAdvisors.com. We've seen that many have been concerned about trade tariffs and their potential impact on the economy. Today, Bob Dole joins us to break down what this means and what we can expect moving forward.

Then it's on to your questions at 800-525-7000. This is faith and finance biblical wisdom for your financial journey. Well, it's a blessing to have Bob Dole with us again. Bob is the CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global Investments, an underwriter of this program. Bob is also a regular contributor here on faith and finance. And Bob, great to have you back.

My privilege as always. Bob, there's been so much talk about tariffs these days. The tariffs are on, the tariffs are off. And without getting into the debate about whether they're a good idea or not, let's just talk about what folks can expect if we have tariffs either in the near future or longer term. Well, as you said, it depends on the day of the week.

It's on one day, off the next, Rob. Tariffs are taxed. So if we have to pay 10 percent more for goods that are coming into this country that we want to buy, the price goes up. So that's what we can expect if tariffs are really put in place and left there. As we've seen in recent days, they can be, as we just said, on again, off again, because they're also used as a bargaining tool, a threat, flexing our muscle, if you will. Bob, whenever we have more talk of tariffs, the market seems to respond on the downside.

What is that signaling? Well, it tells us, as Common Wisdom would agree, that tariffs slow economic growth. Why? Because if you have to pay more for your widgets, you can't buy as many widgets as you did before. Or you can buy widgets, but you can't buy apples and oranges along with it. So it is a dampener on growth. That's why the market doesn't like it.

Yeah. Bob, you mentioned it can dampen growth. Could it cause us by itself to slip into recession? If big enough and long enough and there are enough people striking back and it becomes a global thing, absolutely. It's a trade war. And a trade war is not healthy for economic growth and could push us into recession.

I think cooler minds will not permit that to happen because they can be taken off just as fast as they're put on. Yeah. And Bob, what would you say is President Trump's big idea here? Is it really all about a negotiating tactic or is there a meaningful trade imbalance he's trying to solve for in some cases? Well, there's no question the trade imbalance goes against the U.S. with too many countries. So that's part of his game here. But he's smart enough to know that he doesn't want to sink the economy because that only makes things worse. So I think it's more a bargaining tool and a threat than anything else.

Yeah, that's helpful. Bob, obviously, this brings uncertainty that can lead down the road to fear. What encouragement would you give to our listeners in these times? I would say several things. Number one, Donald Trump cares about his legacy and the economy and the stock market are high on his list.

So don't be overly concerned. Number two, the economy is pretty good, whether we have tariffs or not. So we've got some wind at our back. More importantly, God knows the end from the beginning and all things, including tariffs. You read that Philippians passage at the beginning, I'll add from the Psalms. He's our refuge. He's our fortress.

We can dwell in the shelter of the Most High God. That's well said. Bob, we can't control U.S. GDP or the tax code or the Federal Reserve or the president. We can control our own little economies, what passes through our hands. And so that means stewardship, right?

It sure does. We need to take care of everything God's given us. Yes, money is the subject here, but all of life, our minds, our bodies, everything God's given us. But stick to what God's given you and your little economy as you put it and you'll be OK. Bob, as we wrap up here today, I know you and your wife, Leslie, have spent a lot of time talking, teaching, participating in generosity. It breaks the grip of money over our lives.

What would you leave us with today around that? Recognize that it is not ours. It's all God's. And so parting with it is a sweet thing, not a difficult thing. And we're also not citizens of this planet.

We're citizens of a different place. And so let it go. Love it. Well, Bob, we're so thankful for you, the the calm that you bring in the midst of the uncertainty and for your great work in faith based investing as well. Thanks for stopping by today.

Good to be your partner. That's Bob Doll, CEO and chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, a leader in faith based investing. You can learn more at Crossmark Global dot com. Back with your questions after this eight hundred five to five seven thousand.

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For licensing information, please visit in MLS consumer access dot org. We are grateful for support from Crossmark Global Investments. They are a faith based firm with a goal of offering values based investments to help align financial choices and faith, ensuring a portfolio that reflects what matters most. Crossmark does this through investment solutions that span the capital market spectrum from large cap to small cap strategies, including equity, fixed income and balanced strategies. They are led by industry veteran Bob Doll CFA, a regular guest on the faith and finance program.

More information is available at Crossmark Global dot com. Glad to have you with us today on faith and finance. We're helping you live out a biblical world view in every domain of your life, and that certainly includes the domain of money. You know, it's probably that one area that we've thought the least about in terms of how our faith informs it. You know, we think about money all the time and how do we save it appropriately and how do we spend it wisely? And how do we invest it with an eye toward growing it for the future?

And that's all good. We need to think about the blocking and tackling, if you will, to use a football analogy of money management. But what about how it shapes our faith? You know, my experience in doing this for a long time and answering more than twenty thousand questions on the radio over the last seven years hosting this program is that our financial journey is one of the key ways. God shapes our spiritual journey, and it's because the way we work out our values is most tangible, most often expressed through our money management decisions, how we think about our lifestyle, how we think about our spending, our generosity, our trust in the Lord. Whether or not we're anxious, whether or not we're seeking the temporal, the here and now, or whether we're sending God's resources on ahead through what Randy Alcorn calls the treasure principle.

We can't take it with us, but we can send it on ahead. I mean, we work out so much of our faith through our money management decisions, and it's a blessing. Remember, money is a good gift from God to be used as a tool. The problem is when we worship the creation over the creator, when we get fixated on the things of this world. You remember the parable of the sower, what thwarted the seed, the word from bearing a thirty, sixty, hundred fold return.

Jesus gives the answer a few verses later as he's explaining it to the disciples. And he says it's the deceitfulness of riches, among other things, the deceitfulness of riches. Remember, money is not evil, but it can compete with our hearts for lordship to God himself.

And we can't let that happen. One of the ways we do that is by giving it away because giving breaks the grip of money over our lives. Well, on this program each day, we want to help you think about managing money in light of biblical truth. And we realize there's very practical issues and decisions you're making every day.

And so we want to help you navigate those. If you've got a question today, something going on in your financial life, something very specific, we'd love to talk about it, help you make that decision in light of biblical principles. The number to call, we've got looks like just two lines remaining. Calls are coming in quick, but we've got room for you right now at 800-525-7000.

That's 800-525-7000. We will dive into those in just a moment. But first, in the news today, a new report by researchers at the University of Delaware in UCLA claims that consumers purchasing CDs may be leaving money on the table, so to speak. Now, normally you purchase a CD for a given term with a certain interest rate. And generally, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate. And then if you cash the CD in before the term ends, well, you typically pay a penalty of several months interest. Well, the report indicates that investors would actually be money ahead by going with a longer term CD, but then cashing it in early and paying the penalty in some situations.

So here's an example. You put $100 in a five year CD with a 5% interest rate. You cash it in after one year and get hit with a penalty equal to six months interest, and you would still receive back about $103, which could be more than you would receive by buying a one year CD and cashing it in at the end of the term. So, of course, this strategy won't work if the short term CD rates are equal or greater than long term. So it's safe to say your results may vary, but an interesting idea that as we're looking at CDs for that portion of your assets that are in the most conservative end of the spectrum, where I would say you have less than a five year time horizon, especially with interest rates where they've been CDs have been fairly popular, certainly worth looking at. Is it better to go with the shorter term or push it out a little longer? Could I do better even after the penalty?

I will say more recently you're getting rewarded more handsomely with that shorter term, and so this probably doesn't apply, but at least an idea for you to look at as you think about your CD investments. All right. Lines are filling up. Let's go to the phones here today.

We're going to begin in Pennsylvania. Jeff, how can I help you? Hey, I recently received a sizable inheritance.

I had some thoughts on what to do with it, but I wanted to get your thoughts first. Okay. Well, give me your thoughts and maybe in doing so, just kind of give me a little bit of an understanding of where you're at financially right now. Okay. Well, the inheritance is around $330,000.

Okay. Now, I do have a mortgage on our residence. I have a mortgage on an investment property, and I have a line of credit on our residence.

Those debts total around $101,000. I'd also like to be generous with a portion of it as well, and then I would also like to, a dream of mine for years has been to have a garage for personal use. If I did the math correctly, after I do all that, I'll have about $150,000 left. Okay. So I won't have any more debt, so with the cash I'm saving from not paying debt anymore, I would also like to open an additional savings account or checking account and put $500 a month into that account.

With the cash, again, I'm saving from not paying debt anymore, so I have $6,000 every year for any future projects or home improvements. Yes. Very good. And then keep $150,000 in the account, which I didn't mention, it's a brokerage account in stocks and mutual funds right now, so I'll keep $150,000 in that account perpetually. Okay.

Yeah, I like that a lot. Or whatever. Yeah, and that's not in an IRA currently. You're receiving it in an after-tax brokerage account? Yes. Okay.

Very good. And then who would determine which of the investments to sell versus which to keep and then ongoing beyond all of these moves you're thinking about? Would you be the one making the decisions on that, or would you bring an advisor into the mix here? I would be the one making the decision on that, and I'm not looking to sell any investments, however.

I'm just looking to pay off my debt. The investment property I have is a rental property that does have income. Right. No, but what I was thinking is that if you receive that inheritance and it's a portfolio full of investments, in order to do the things you're talking about, paying off all the mortgage debt, giving some away, building the garage, you're going to have to liquidate some of those investments, right? Right. So like I said, I'm looking to liquidate that down to $150,000 remaining in the account, and it's actually in a conservative growth position right now where they are handling all the investments for me.

I see. When you say they, meaning it's just in a mutual fund with a manager, or you have an advisor? I have an advisor. It's in a mutual fund and in several stocks as well. Okay, so that advisor would help you determine which of the investments you're inheriting in the portfolio you would sell to do the things you're describing and which ones to keep, right? Right.

Okay, yeah, very good. I like this plan a lot. I mean, I love that the Lord's leading you to be generous and you want to take a portion of this and give it away. I love the fact that you're going to be completely debt-free on your residential and your investments. I guess the only other question would just be, are you getting as much of it into a tax-deferred environment as possible? Are you contributing to a retirement plan now?

I am through my employer. Okay, great. And you feel like you're on track with that?

I do, I do. Okay, awesome. Yeah, I love this plan. I think you're right on track here.

I think this is a good use of it, and I'm in full agreement. Thanks for your call today. Before we head into our break, let me remind you, if you'd like to find a financial professional who shares your values and priorities, who's been trained to bring a biblical worldview of financial decision-making, well, we'd encourage you to look for a certified kingdom advisor in your area. There's more than 1,500 men and women who have earned CKA all across the U.S. You can find one at faithfi.com. Just click Find a Professional.

We'll be right back. and interact with a community of like-minded believers where you can ask questions, get answers, and share what you're learning. Go to faithfi.com and click the word app to get started. As the leading advocate for the Christian financial industry, Kingdom Advisors serves the public by promoting the integration of a biblical worldview across every aspect of the financial services industry. And we serve a growing network of thousands of Christian financial professionals, equipping and empowering them to carry biblical financial wisdom to their clients, peers, and community. For more information, visit kingdomadvisors.com.

That's kingdomadvisors.com. Great to have you with us today on Faith and Finance. Let's head right back to the phones, out to Michigan. Marie, thanks for calling. Go ahead.

Hi, thanks for taking my call. I'm wondering where to and how to invest. My husband and I are both retired.

I have $200,000 left in my TSP and then approximately $270,000 that is in IRA CDs, a small portion of which is Roth IRAs. Yeah, very good. And the Roth IRAs are in the CDs as well? Yes. Okay.

And have you separated from service from your government job? Yes. Okay, so you're fully retired? Yes.

Excellent. You know, this is a perfect opportunity, Marie, unless you are just really compelled to manage this yourself, which is not a bad thing if you have the time and the expertise to do it, but you've accumulated quite a bit in the way of assets through a lot of hard work and savings over a long time. And I think this is an opportune time for you to consider finding an advisor that would be a good fit for you. And when I say good fit, I mean, you know, they, you know, would you find a good rapport with them, they have the experience you're looking for, you know, that you would fit into their core client mix, you know, meaning your portfolios and significantly more or less than their typical client. You know, you could, you're happy with the way that, you know, they're, they would manage this, you know, according to your goals and objectives, and so forth. And I would recommend somebody who shares your values as well. And so that's why we recommend the Certified Kingdom Advisor designation.

And so what I would do is connect with a CKA there in Michigan, you could interview two or three, you know, at least find the one that's the best fit. And then what you would do is roll that TSP over to an IRA. And then that advisor could take over management, you know, of all of the assets, upwards of a half a million dollars. And just because you'd hire an advisor, advisor doesn't mean you need to add a lot of risk, either. I mean, they the advisor could stay on the, the more conservative end of the investment spectrum, if that's what you're looking for, and continue to use things like brokered CDs, but also add some, maybe corporate and treasury bonds. And then maybe there's a case for a portion that might go into, you know, a stock portfolio, maybe some value oriented stocks that pay a dividend that, you know, are not as volatile as the, you know, large cap growth stocks, things like that. And maybe that portion of the portfolio, perhaps as much as 30% of the overall, you know, could provide some growth component, you know, over the next couple of decades, if you know, you're in good health and the Lord Terry's, we need this money to last a long time. But give me your thoughts on that. And how does that fit with what you had had been thinking about?

Okay, so you said about possibly 30% in the stocks? Yeah, and that's just a rule of thumb. What is your age, if you don't mind me asking? 65.

Okay, yeah. So you know, typically, what we would say, we used to use what's called the rule of 100. And this is not, you know, for everybody, this is just a starting point. And then we would take the number 100, you would subtract your age, and then that would be the portion that you would put in stocks, and then the balance you would put in a bond or fixed income portfolio. Because people are living longer, longevity is increasing for a variety of reasons, including advances in modern medicine, even though ultimately, we don't know the day or the hour the Lord would call us home, we've raised that just generally speaking to 110. So if you take 110 minus your age, that would say you should have as much as perhaps 45% in stocks. However, you know, you may say, you know what, I'm just not comfortable with that I want to be on the more conservative end. And so I would say somewhere between 30 and 45% would be generally what you would want to be thinking about in this season of life, to keep in a stock allocation. And then the other thing is, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, if you're thinking about, you know, the stock market, and the balance would be in those more sure and steady, you know, fixed income type investments. And the idea is with the stock portion, even if we were to get into a significant recession, remember the economy is cyclical.

And it's been quite a while since we've had one. And even though I like a lot of the the Trump economic policies and think we're gonna, you know, it's going to sell or accelerate our growth here in the United States, we are overdue at some point in the next decade for a recession. But even then, you just wouldn't touch that portion of the portfolio.

And you'd wait for it to come back. And at least historically speaking, it always has. And we move to new highs, no matter what we look at, whether it's the crash of 29, or, you know, the.com, you know, bubble burst, or the housing, you know, crisis, we've always moved to new highs. And so I think that would be the idea is that you'd have a mix that as you age would skew more and more toward fixed income, but you always keep a portion in stocks that provides a little bit of the growth component.

Does that make sense? Yeah, now, this would be actively managed. And the advisor would move this on his own on my behalf, or is this something where I have to reach out to him? No, I mean, you've got any number of options available to you, everything from you do it yourself and pick your own investments to you get more of a robo solution, which I wouldn't recommend here or all the way to active management, which is what I'm suggesting as a starting place.

But again, it has to be a good fit for you. But yeah, you would pay a fee a percentage based on the assets under management. And that advisor, I would suggest you find a certified kingdom advisor, who's what's called a fiduciary, which means they have to put your legally your interests above their own. And their responsibility is to manage the money, according to your goals and objectives and making sure to, you know, build and maintain the portfolio accordingly.

Okay, that sounds good. Now, are all the CK advisors, are they all fiduciary? Most of them would be that that's not a requirement.

And it just has to do with their business model. And so I think that would be one of the questions you would ask alongside, you know, tell me about your discovery process. Let's talk about how you, you know, based on my goals would manage this money. You know, how we how would we communicate and how often and are you a fiduciary?

I think you'd put that right in there. And that's why I think you're interviewing several advisors. The way to find a CKA in your area there in Michigan, Marie is faith phi.com. faith fi.com. Right at the top of the page, it'll say find a professional. And you could do a zip code search and get a list to start with and take it from there. Hope that helps you all the best in this exciting season of life here and call anytime if we can help.

Well, that's going to do it for us. Before we go, let me remind you to check out the faith phi app on our website at faith phi.com. It's the best money management app out there to get godly counsel, encouragement, great content. rooted in Scripture, but also what I believe is the very best money management system as well. You know, with expenses up everywhere and high inflation, you're probably struggling like I am to stay on budget.

Well, having a plan and a system to control the flow of money is essential. The faith fi app was built on Larry Burkett's tried and true envelope system, but in a modern, beautiful and simple interface right there in the palm of God. Julie and I use it every day and we wouldn't be able to stay on budget without it because whether we're taking one of our kids shopping or we're checking our vacation category or anything else in our financial lives, we know exactly where we stand with the faith by app. You can check it out in your app store or at faith fi.com. On behalf of our team here at faith by thanks for being along with us. Come back and join us next time. May God bless you. Faith and finance is provided by faith by and listeners like you.