Election Day Showdown: The Red Surge, the Blue Wall, and the Battle for Congress

The math doesn't work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states. In urban areas, they are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters. Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000. Democrats have to win their races early.

Republicans generally win them on Election Day. And the margins don't add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states. The math.

So this is the big the big thing is whether or not There is enough early voter, like the voting, the momentum on the Democrat side. whether or not the early voting is If this is significant enough to Carry them because usually, as you guys know, Democrats have been so good at early voting, that's like their thing. That's their thing. It was to the point where You know, Republicans, we were lamenting and and and We were actually quite upset with ourselves because it was, you know, we were sort of falling by the wayside with it.

So now here we are. What is What does it mean? That's what we're going to dive into. Because welcome to the jungle, everybody. We're kicking it off.

And uh it's election day. We've we've lived How I mean, how many years? How many years has this been, I feel like? I can't believe we're here already. Did we make it?

Are we here? How many sleeps before election? All right, so I have a packed show for you today. We're going to go through everything. We're going to look at different electoral pathways.

We're going to look at the top 10 races to watch. Watch the Senate, the House. We're going to look at some of the early voting. I'm going to correct some arguments. We're going to totally trash some polling.

And then we're going to talk about two pathways after. And then we got, of course, election shenanigans. If you have been paying attention, Lorraine's got a great piece up right now over at Chapter and Verse where she gets into some of the election shenanigans that have been going on today already. As you know, some of them are glitches, some of them are shenanigans, and she breaks all of that down.

So we have a lot to hit.

Now, again, welcome, your lovable curmudgeon, Dana Lash, here with you. No matter what happens today, we're going to walk through it together. And of course, we have to observe some. Hilarity. I have some cultural stories completely unrelated to the election, and I've been waiting all day, literally all night, all day.

To share one with you.

So let's dive into all of this. All right, first and foremost.

So election day, and uh Early voting has been good for Republicans. The states and the battleground states, and we're going to talk a lot about these battleground states, which include the Blue Wall, and you guys know these battleground states, we've talked about it quite a bit, Pennsylvania is chief amongst them. I mean, you've got Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona. And it has been all about turnout, getting these Republican voters out because Republican turnout has always been the issue.

Now I want to pause here for a moment because I touched on this yesterday. And I will caution people about comparing The Turnout, especially when you look at states like Pennsylvania and some of these battlegrounds, I will caution you. In comparing turnout today. to turn out Of 2020. And there is a major reason why.

Actually, two major reasons. First and foremost, it was COVID. Secondly, Republicans were hell. bent against early voting in 2020 to the point that it actually depressed the overall vote on election day. I spent about two hours deep diving through all my notes at the time.

This is a particular sore spot for me because I traveled in twenty twenty to a few of these battleground states And it was insane. And good, sweet people, many of them listen to the show, and I love them. But they were hell-bent against early voting. They were not going to go do it. And I was trying to caution people: look, in the areas where you can do it.

If Democrats are going to allow you the chance to run to score, then go by all means do it. I understand the principle. Look, I like voting on election day. My mother will fight you to the death to vote on election day only. There are certain people like this.

I have dear friends of mine who are my age and some of them a couple of years younger who are like, no, we are only voting on election day. I get it, believe me. But I want it, but in 2020. It was a different scenario. Republicans were just dominated by Democrats with early voting.

And they didn't Especially in 2020 with COVID and the concern over mail-in ballots and everything else, there was. And Trump spoke against it.

So it's very, you don't want to measure early voting now to 2020 because I feel like we're restoring behavioral norms. And as a result of restoring behavioral norms, it's difficult for me to say that that's a major gain when we're going back to how it was normally, right?

Now, I will say. If you're comparing them against To Democrats, Republicans have been doing really well holding their own against Democrats with regard to early voting, and we're gonna dive into that. One of the other things. The state to watch is going to be Pennsylvania. I've heard a lot about early voting, specifically in Pennsylvania.

And like I said, I think that's, you know, again, not entirely representative of the whole story when you're restoring normal behavior. But looking back, Trump won this state in 2016 by 44,292 votes. Biden won this state by 80,582 votes in 2020.

So there's not a lot of room. By these margins.

Now, as you know, Pennsylvania, together with Wisconsin and Michigan, they form that blue wall. That's the wall that Democrats love to hide behind. And it's protected countless nominees, except in 2016 with Hillary Clinton and with Dukakis. It held in 2020.

Now The race is neck and neck. Any pollster who tells you what's going to happen is lying to you. If they tell you they know, they're lying to you. It is so incredibly close. I don't trust the theories about the shy voter.

I don't trust the theories about the hidden voter or any of that because none of that stuff panned out in 2020. And I was looking at a lot of surveys, a lot of polling data in 2020, and what I was hearing wasn't adding up with the numbers that I was seeing.

So I'm super cautious going into this to the point of a super cynic, not to be a fatalist, but I want to be realistic because I don't think that it helps aside to bolster an argument or say that you don't need help when really you do. And maybe that could be the difference between. Winning or losing.

Now, in Pennsylvania, a couple of things, because I hear people say there's troubling signs that emerge, but there's also some really good things.

So I don't want people to focus on like a lot of this early vote. One of the things you can tell with early voting is, you know, how many registered Democrats, how many registered Republicans, men, women, et cetera, et cetera, the ages, but you don't know where those votes are going to because they're not going to be counted. It's not going to start until today.

So in Pennsylvania, voters over the age of 65 have already cast half of the early ballots. Registered Democrats were 58% of those votes cast by seniors compared to 35% for Republicans. And that's despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older. More women than men have really voted, with women tending to skew Democrat. And I hope that the campaign, because we started seeing this trend emerge a couple of weeks ago.

And so I hope the campaign, and I feel like it did, maneuvered on the ground to combat that a little bit, to realize, oh, here's where we got a leak, let's fix it, or this is where we have a leak, let's fix it. And I feel like at that point, There was enough movement on the ground where they targeted those issues. But one of the problems with these trends. Is that a lot of the trends about voting and these discernible patterns don't emerge until the votes start being counted? And a lot of the stuff that you hear about previous elections, these are patterns that were only able to be seen after the votes came in, if that makes sense.

So, That I don't, this is one of those things that underscores the need. to completely swamp the vote. And uh And again, I think you also have to consider a lot of Republicans still, especially in some of these states, they like to go on the day of. But not all signs indicate trouble. There's a lot of encouraging things too.

Republicans are leading early voting for the first time ever in North Carolina. This never happened before. I think it has to do with North Carolina's absolutely abysmal response to everything that's happened in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. And the GOP has been reversing the party's long-held position against early voting.

Now, here's another thing: we're going to talk about a lot of these Senate races, but let me just give you a 30,000-foot view to start the show. Bernie Moreno. I said this yesterday, pulled 0.4 ahead of Sherrod Brown in Ohio. right. McCormick and Casey are tied in Pennsylvania.

The better measure of Harris versus Trump, if you want a more accurate representation than what you're getting from these national surveys, is to watch what happens in those races. Watch what happens in these battleground races. between these these from state lawmakers that are just tied. This is significant.

Now, Trump is also polling incredibly well in Ohio, so that's part of it. But in Pennsylvania, He and Harris are tied. And so McCormick and Casey Casey has been reversing a lot of his positions. He's been trying to run to the center. He's invoked Trump's name in ads, which we've talked about last week.

I think this is a better measure of the health of the Senate. I said to you last night, if you subscribe to my newsletter in chapter and verse, I. believe I feel like at least Republicans will take the Senate with 51 seats. That is my estimation.

Now, that could actually go significantly higher. You could go up to 55 seats. Because you have a number of these other races, which we're going to talk about here coming up, racist to watch. And we're going to dive into the house here coming up. Dicksville Notch is the first town, this is in New Hampshire, they vote at midnight.

What do they have, like, a whole six people? A whole six people. Can I just say, how are you your own town with six people? That's like me saying I'm going to form a micro-nation here in my backyard, right? I don't, like, what.

Anyway.

So in 2016 Uh, I can't remember what it was. Was it four to two Trump? And then it ended up being tied, or no, not tied. I think Biden edged him out. We're like five down or something like that in 2020.

Bottom line is it was three to three. They literally are tied. in Dicksville Notch, first town to vote. Three for Harris, three for Trump. And the funny thing is, is all these people, Democrats and Republicans, it's a tiny.

Six people. They use it as a narrative for the rest of the day. Like, at least until what came like 11 or 12 o'clock. That's the narrative. And then you know they were pulling their hair out when they saw those come in.

I thought that was hysterical last night. I gotta say, I thought it was pretty funny.

So, this is, I mean, we got a packed show, and we're going to dive into the house races. House is, you know, this is where I got a little concern. I have some concern. We're going to talk about Nevada. Nevada could be an issue of candidate quality coming up.

I know people don't like to have that conversation. I'm specifically looking at the Senate where you have the Democrat pulling ahead. We're going to look at the other battlegrounds. We're going to look too at that seat, what I think might be a 51-seat majority. Cruz's seat, now you got to remember Joe Manchin, who's retiring, that's all baked into this.

Ted Cruz, his race for some reason, even though he's over plus four of Allred, and it's probably the closest race that he's been in. And I feel like the campaign should have learned some lessons after Beto O'Rourke beat him by over 2,300-something votes in the most conservative red county, the last big urban red county that's conservative in the United States. But I feel like there were lessons that weren't learned there. But Cruz's seat is plus four. It's labeled as a toss-up.

It's not going to be a toss-up. He's going to win, but it's going to be close. That's my forecast. We're also going to talk: Trump grew coattails.

Now, you can't say that he did not have them in 2020. I'll fight you to the death on that. I'm not saying this as a pejorative, I'm telling you this as a form of encouragement. He grew coattails. This is evident in Ohio.

in Pennsylvania? It's evident in Wisconsin. There are some, we're going to look at this. That is very interesting. and it foretells if he wins.

some good things to come from midterms.

So we've got a lot to hit. We also have to catch up on the Daniel Penny case. We also have to talk about that dude who said he was a chick who was an Olympic boxer, but then they discovered that he had lady balls. I don't know. We got to talk about all of that as well.

We've got to get into the non-major party voters. They are the plurality now. Makes it harder for both sides. But then, in some ways, it's easier.

So, we got to hit all of that stuff and more. We got a pack show. You don't want to miss a single bit of it as we move. If your approach to everyday aches and pains is to mask them, you know, feel better for a few hours or only have the pain return and then repeat the cycle all over again. It's time to try Relief Factor.

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So, don't mask pain, fight it naturally with relief factor. And now, all of the news you would probably miss. It's time for Dana's Quick Five. I'm not gonna lie, I feel like of all the stupid things I would buy, it would be this. This Italian, beautiful Italian vacation spot is selling cans of its air.

This is some space ball stuff. It's called Lake Como Air. It's air from Lake Como. You know, somebody just farted in a can and then just like sold it. That's all it was.

It says empty cans containing air from Lake Como are being sold to gullible tourists for like almost $10 a can. 400 milliliters, they're being sold at a bookshop and a restaurant on the lake, as well as two other popular destinations nearby. And they have an aerial image of a motorboat speeding across the idyllic Italian lake. That's actually hysterical, and I'm really sad that I didn't come. You know what?

We need to have like East St. Louis air. right and just put it in a can or Washington DC. You know, buy the by Union Station Air.

So the air? The 10 ohms, $11 US. Why did I do this? I am so mad. But it's still like only $8 for a beer at the stadium.

But this is the air. I mean it's actual Italian air, you know, from the Lake Como. You know what I mean? Hey. Anyway.

I feel like I want to make fun of it, but at the same time. I am not gonna lie, there's 10% of me that goes, oh, I want that. That's Lake Homo Air. Farmers are. Yeah.

This is the headline I do not want today. Farmers are sounding the alarm about the future of potato chips. in America. We're gonna riot. Because potatoes are getting harder to grow in places like Pennsylvania, which has the most potato chip makers of any states in the U.S.

Save the taties. Save them tatty chips. No. The best kind are barbecue and salt and vinegar. I'll fight you.

I think that's like the third time I've said that today. We're not even an hour in. I'm just fighting everything today. Comalonomics: the average age of the US home buyer has jumped to 56. Fifty six years old.

That's like When I was younger, isn't that the age of people would retire is 56? Accordingly, yeah, vote accordingly, guys. We got a lot more on the way. Races to watch, battlegrounds, and more. Stick with us, our partners.

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Visit preborn.com/slash Dana, help save a baby and mother's life. That's preborn.com/slash Dana. Did you know eight out of the last 11 created jobs never really existed? Over the course of the past year, the Labor Department has revised the jobs report by over a million jobs. In case you forgot, the Federal Reserve was using this info when making their policy decisions.

Check out the watchdog. on Wall Street Podcast, on Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Keep your finger on the pulse with the Dana Show podcast, delivering timely news with insightful analysis whenever you want, straight to you on YouTube, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. Is there a better intro to a song than GNR's Welcome to the Jungle? Nay, there is not.

You gotta keep it going just for a second. Oh my gosh. It is literally the best intro to any song ever. I mean, I'm Just saying, it's divinely inspired. And there is no better song to describe a general election day than Welcome to the Jungle, Welcome Back to the Program.

You're in the jungle now, baby. Dana Lash here with you. You're lovable cremudgeon. A little less cremudgeonly today, even though I've got like a nervous, I just gotta, yeah, but we're all the same way, right? We're all like right now.

But There's something about The pageantry and the process of voting that is so distinctly American that I just love it to bits. I don't care if I'm nervous about it or afraid. Even if I were losing, I'm still like, yeah! And just there's something about it that's... I love.

It's so uniquely American. And I also have to say I am trying really hard. To not flirt with Schadenfreude. Because the New Testament speaks against that. And I am a very, I will only say this once: I am a very superstitious person.

Insanely so. Like to the point, if the Cardinals baseball game is on, I literally cannot watch until the second inning because I feel like I jinx it. I'm not even, it's weird. I have a bunch of weird things that I, it's weird. I don't know.

I feel like I get weirder as I get older. Yeah. And When I'm if there's something that I want to happen, Or I just I don't want to How do I say this? Celebrate Any nervousness or misfortune or fear of my opposition when it's so close. And it really could go either.

You know, I just, so I'm trying so hard not to flirt with Sean and Freuda.

However,. It was a chilly morning. Texas today. I didn't need a jacket. And you know why I didn't need a jacket?

Because the nervousness and fear and paranoia and just outright anxiety that is being demonstrated by the left on the cable news networks and on social media and on blogs and on everything all across the United States is enough to warm my black and bitter heart. Audio sound by 12. Josh Shapiro. Who didn't get picked because he was Jewish? Let's be real.

Josh Shapiro would be the VP candidate. And he wasn't because Democrats Are anti, they're, I mean, pretty damn anti-Semitic. I'll share with you a conversation I had with a dear friend of mine coming up. But Josh Shapiro This was his contribution, I guess, his last-minute Hail Mary contribution, audio 7 by 12. It was here in Philly, just down the street.

That we declared our independence from a king. And hear me on this, we are not going back to a king in this country. No, we're not.

So, wait a minute, I'm like really confused. Who said that we're going back to a king? And you know what? We're also not going back to tightrolling our jeans. That is also not going to happen.

Literally, no one said this. Can we just say things that we don't want that no one has proposed? We are not going to disquify the national anthem. I don't care how many people won it, it's not going to happen. That's Josh Shapiro.

I just sort of feel like he's along for the ride and doing whatever he needs to do just to get through this election cycle.

So I had a conversation. With a dear friend of mine. Who also represents me, a big agency? And um My friend Well, I'm just gonna It it learned for years. And he is like your Like he's like the avatar of your Jewish New York liberal.

Right. Manhattan's got the accent, everything, the manners, everything. Like Manhattan. liberal through and through. Jewish family.

And I remember when I first met him. He just could not get over the fact that I was. I had no problem carrying a gun. It was a and I was explaining to him it's a cultural difference. Like, if you grow up in Manhattan, you're used to riding the subway when you're like nine years old.

I think that's insane. Like, going by yourself, getting on the subway, you're nine, 10 years old, that's nuts. All of my all everybody I knew who grew up in Manhattan, they're like, yeah, that's like normal. I think it's bonkers. They could not get over.

The fact that, yeah, you know, just take a BB gun, run out of the woods, start with a BB gun, and then, you know, you go up from there. They just, that was something that they could not understand. And I was. In my conversations with my friend, I was telling him over and over, you know, this is a cultural thing. You're not actually opposed.

To firearms. You're not opposed to the Second Amendment. You're not opposed to concealed care. You're not opposed to these things. You're just unfamiliar with them.

Because of how you grew up. And over time and over the years, as things happened and with constant pressure by me. Things changed. And he said he went for the first time ever a couple of years ago to a range in upstate New York, where that's where. America starts around N Manhattan is upstate New York.

He went to a range there. And he like made mention that, you know, he works with me. And he couldn't believe it. He was like, they were so nice. He waived his rental fees so he could shoot whatever he wanted and try it whatever he wanted.

He didn't have to pay for the range. He said everybody was so nice. I told him, I'm like, what did you think they were going to do? Like, you know, eat your brains like zombies? Like, what did you think was going to happen?

It just cracked me up. But their kindness made him feel so comfortable that he really got into shooting. And then, when all the anti-Semitic attacks began happening, especially in New York and especially around where he lived, he was very nervous about this. I was like, my gosh, what is happening? Fast forward to yesterday and we had a conversation.

And He I told him just out of the blue, I said, you know, I go. I'm really glad that Kamala Harris picked this this FUD from Minnesota. And not just because he's so easy to make fun of, and him and his wife provide for me hours of content. I said I really feel like this race would be different had she picked Shapiro. Because they would have locked in Pennsylvania.

And then they would have locked in the more moderate independent vote. And I said, and they would have dispelled any kind of accusations of anti-Semitism. For the most part, I said the reason that they didn't was because he's Jewish. And I go, I guess that's the party now. And he goes, he's like, he told me, he goes, there's no way they would have picked a Jewish vice president.

Now this is a lifelong Democrat, New Yorker. He's like, there's no way they would have picked a Jewish vice president. No way. And I go, your party? And he goes, yes, I guess my party.

And I'm like, you guess your party? What? And I'm like I told him, I said, so you recognize that Democrats have an anti-Semitism problem. He's like, yes. He's like I don't think you realize how many anti-Semites are Democrats.

And we had this stunning realization where we both looked down and saw that we were standing upon the same square, rhetorically speaking. And I told him, I said, my friend, I said his name, I go, you're a conservative. His hesitancy. And this is what floored me. I felt like he was being more transparent in this moment than ever.

And he had said. He goes, you know, when I break it down, I like a lot of, he goes, I like a lot of the policies from the Trump camp. My friend just doesn't like him personally. And he's like, and I know. He goes, you're supposed to look over that when you go and vote.

And he's like, I think, but that's kind of the problem for me. He goes, I want a Republican Party. That I feel is a refuge from where I'm coming from, from the Democrats. And I'm like My dude, you are a conservative. You just admitted to me that you want these policies.

Oh my, I couldn't get past anything else. I'm like, oh my gosh.

Now keep in mind when I first met him He was like aghast. It was almost the agent that I had had, who was a very well-known agent, retired. And When I was introduced to my new friend and we started working together. I almost felt like he was kind of watching me and testing me because my agent that retired was a lot older. He'd been in the business and he built people and he was like very, he knows everybody.

He was able to get my number and call me out of the blue one time, like, you know, over a decade ago. It was crazy. And um I felt like with My friend and my rep now. that he was sort of like testing me to see if this is gonna work. And it is amazing from our conversation last night to the first time we met.

My jaw is on the floor. Dude, you can't tell me he did not vote Republican. He stopped right before, because I don't think he could admit to himself, dude, he did. He totally did. I would bet everything on it.

I'm not a betting pro. I would bet everything on it. And the thing that did it for him. Was the economy? And not even just the raging anti-Semitism that he saw on the left, but the fact.

that the whole party Moved to accommodate it. Without question and without apology. To him the fact that so many people We're able to excuse this and just sort of gloss over it. was a terrifying thing. And that's true.

You know, I made mention of this last night in my piece. Over at Substat. How it's this has just been The craziest Craziest, most unpredictable general election. Actually, the last three in American history. And I said too.

That Democrats' ability. To roll over. On principle, and vet a candidate chosen for them by their ideological betters while bitching about losing democracy is a circus unlike anything the Romans could have ever imagined. But Americans. I wrote, are constantly besieged on all fronts by politics, and the creation of entertainment politics as a coping mechanism is both understandable and also the reason why everything is even more unpredictable.

We're We're in weird times. And going, I mean, that's it's close. I really feel. And I'm sure that tomorrow and the days after, people are going to dice this up. It shouldn't be this close.

I'm so glad that she didn't pick Josh Shapiro. But it shouldn't be this close. Hopefully. The deluge of turnout. remedy any kind of situation that may bubble up in the margins.

Now a few other things. The state of the race. Non-major party voters. Are the plurality now? I've seen some estimates saying that they're probably about 30% of the electorate.

I thought this was fascinating. I was looking at some of the final swing state polls out from Emerson last night. And it's I mean it's still super close. It's still super close. I mean, I I think most people believe that coming up, we will be controlled, Republicans will control the Senate.

We only have to flip What, two seats? Two seats is all it takes to take control. And if you win the White House. You only need one.

So We're going to look at some of these races because in Ohio. You have Republican Bernie Moreno going up against Gerard Brown. Trump is doing well in Ohio. This is helping to propel Moreno. Trump is not He's not an anchor.

on the jackets of of these candidates in 2020 it was tougher. twenty twenty two was tough. It's different. And I think part of it is because Democrats have run one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen. Can I just ask, why do people keep saying it's one of the best run campaigns ever?

For real, I am shocked. Smart people are saying this. Were they paid? But The other thing, too, is that Sherrod Brown in Ohio. She's Sherrod Brown is overperforming Kamala Harris, who last survey was like 11 points, almost 12 points behind Trump.

Sherrod Brown is overperforming, is overperforming Kamal Harris. To that effect, Trump's double-digit lead in the state is propelling Bernie Moreno. Hmm. Moreno has been leading. of the last six polls.

What, five? 4-5 Moreno has led. Very interesting. Pennsylvania, this is going to be, I think, the race that is. The thermometer.

Bob Casey. The Democrat incumbent. Republican David McCormick, the challenger. Forty seven to forty seven were six percent undecided. And McCormick, since October, has only increased his support by one point.

Casey stayed static. Very interesting. Now Of the polls. They've mostly showed them dead, you know, tied. Maybe McCormick has a slight lead.

Only two of them have shown that. But these are also two pollsters that have been kind of accurate: Atlas Intel and Trafalgar. Uh they traffic did pretty good in 2016. Atlas Intel is pretty solid. Interesting.

So this is another Senate race to watch. Coming up, we're going to talk about the House. And we're also going to get into uh some of these other battle grounds. And what to watch for tonight. And then, coming up, the electoral pathways forward.

There's a handful of them. We're going to explore every single one of them. There's about five, six total. Harris has a couple more pathways than Trump. But two of them are a lot harder and I don't think that they're Feasible really for her.

We're going to get into all of that. Patriot Mobile, it's the only Christian conservative cell phone service in the country. They want to save you money, and I've been proud to partner with them for over a decade. They have Patriot Mobile One, one phone, one carrier, multiple networks.

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Go to the real thing: patriotmobile.com/slash Dana 972Patriot for your free month of service today. Get the lowdown on the latest news with a side of laughs. Whenever you want, subscribe to the Dana Show podcast on YouTube, Apple, or wherever you get your podcast. Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of the United States. Hey guys.

Well I I want more talk. Oh, you want to do the doorknob? Yeah, come on, okay. I had your hat on. I was a friend's dad in front of 111,000 people all day Saturday.

So thank you guys.

Okay, come on. Thank you all. Um Natural. This is so awkward. It's so awkward.

Look at the strap. It's so awkward. Is she just so pretty for her? Pamela Harris, who's, I guess, trying to door knock. She was in Pennsylvania all day yesterday.

Um I'm just saying. Six days there. Yeah, it's ev Everything is staged with her. I'll never forget when they were in the gas station. And a slappity McSlap face, M Hoff.

Brought her those Doritos, and she's like, Mmm, Doritos, thanks. What I needed. Like, No one moves and acts like that. You're like an alien. What is the Stop.

Coming up, the media narrative about carnage America braces for carnage, White House is barricaded, stores bored up. It's the sporting up the businesses. They act like there's gonna be violence on the right. Have they not paid attention to what happened in 2016, what happened in the midterms? Stick with us.

Second hour on the way. Where you can't carry, the Burn A Gun can go because Burn A Gun. Doesn't care about gun-free zone signs. Burna Gun doesn't care about gun-free zones, period. And you still don't have to sacrifice your safety to satisfy someone else's insane ideology about lack of self-defense.

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So to learn more about Burna, visit Burna.com slash Dana, get 10% off your purchase. This is expanding your options of self-defense. It's B-Y-R-N-A.com slash Dana for 10% off. Who'd you vote for today? I voted for Kamala Harris.

Why is that? I have three daughters, four children overall, and women's rights is pretty important to them and my daughters.

Sorry, I'm getting a little emotional about that. I didn't think that I was going to do that. It's on top of testosterone. Their bodies, their choice type of a mentality. You know, I want them to grow up in a world that's welcoming to everybody.

So yeah, that's why I tried to do it. Why does he sound like he's going to ball? Oh my gosh, if I was his wife, I'd feel ashamed. I think I'd start divorce proceedings. That's horrible.

I'm not joking. I'm not joking. I'm not trying to be funny. That's, I find that just. Mm-hmm.

So he's this dude is talking about protecting his daughter's right to abort his grandchildren. Can I just talk about how messed up it is that that's your first thought? is about You sexualize the vote.

Well, it needs to be about. I want to make sure that women, if they end up engaging in recreational sex, as if there's any other kind. And I When they engage in this, because we all know sidebar that rape and incest accounts for less than 1%, and that's from Planned Parenthood Zone statistics, which is made public on the internet by an institute called the Gutmacher Institute.

So, you know, let's move on. I just want to make sure that, you know, they can, um, you know, uh uh get rid of the baby after they have the sex. and they can see. That's my only But you I just find that a perverted view of your vote. Why does everything have to go back to sex and baby killing.

It's weird. Like, that's your response. You're a grown man, and your response. Is to sexualize the vote in the context of protecting it for your daughters. Does any am I overreacting to that?

I find that really weird. Do you guys find it weird? And he's like, I'm sorry, I'm just getting emotional. It's like, it's not even your vagina, dude. Like, what?

What in the world? You're getting emotional because you're talking about aborting your gra your future grandchildren? Or you're emotional because you're just realized how sick it sounds to be sexualizing the vote through the perspective of your daughters in abortion? See, we are not the same, y'all. We are not the same.

Welcome back to the program. Dana Lash here with you. Top of the second hour. It's election day. And we've been going through everything.

And I'm going to take you through these electoral pathways right now. If you're watching on this Simulcast channel 347 Direct TV or listening on a station around the country, we've got the chat over at Rumble as well.

So. What could happen? We were going through the Senate. I'm projecting the couple of the races to watch. I mean, really, the Republicans only have to flip two seats, and if we take the White House, it only has to be one.

But I think it actually could go beyond that. But the other thing. Two two quick things. The Atlas Intel survey looks like it's going to be a long night for Kamala Harris. And It just doesn't look.

I mean, they're just tied, but she is also struggling. with Hispanic voters. She's struggling with men. And she's also struggling with, I mean, black men voters. I mean, it's just, this is just, it's kind of wild.

Uh the Pathways forward. And I'm pulling up all my notes on this. And I talked a little bit about this in the newsletter that I sent out last night.

So you know that you have to get in the electoral college, you have to get to the magical 270, right? Magical 270. Where it stands right now.

So if I'm just looking for instance, let me just look at RCP's ratings. RCP has it. Right now, and this is just not going by votes tabulated, obviously, it's going by polling. And certain states that you know are going to be blue and certain states that you know are going to be red. They have it at 211 to 219 in favor of Trump vans with 108 toss-ups.

So you have Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia. Lot of question marks over those.

Now. Here's some pathways forward. Again, I've been talking about this. Uh And we've you know, we made we've discussed at least a couple of ways, maybe before.

So the first one is the famed blue wall, right? It's the flame the the the famous blue wall. This is honestly her Most likely path. There's a caveat though. Imagine you have a big big blue wall and the bricks of this wall.

Or Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania. And then you have like a congressional district in Omaha because um Nebraska Does a mix of statewide votes in congressional districts? I think Maine is also one of the states that does this, so it's a little weird.

So Omaha is like its own thing. And You Have these blue wall states. She doesn't have to, you have blue wall, you have sun belt, you have rust belt. Right. You know the Sun Belt, the Southern States?

where it's supposedly sunny. Your blue wall. is these states that have always been Democrat. Except in 2016 when they weren't. Mm.

Because that's when Trump rush through it like the Kool-Aid man. And then with Dukakis. And then it's it. It's been Democrat the entire time. If she keeps the blue wall, she doesn't have to worry about any of the Sunbelt states.

Remember, I told you before Harris was substituted. One of the Biden strategies. was to make a play for Georgia. The Sun Belt state, right? Make a play for Georgia.

That was going to be a backup in the event that one of the bricks of the blue wall fell. You could replace it with Georgia. And Harris seems to have kind of abandoned that strategy. It seems that theirs is just blue wall. She spent an inordinate amount of time in Pennsylvania and in Michigan and in Wisconsin.

So She could keep the blue wall and not have to win any of the Sunbelt states. If she keeps the blue wall, and this is one of the things to watch. If she keeps the blue wall. She will get to two seventy.

Now, I'm going to look at the map on this.

So, if you have. I mean, even if you just take out everything else, let's just make Michigan lean dim. Let's make Wisconsin lean dim. Let's make Pennsylvania lean dim. Without Minnesota, without North Carolina, without Georgia, Arizona or Nevada, she's at two fifty five to two nineteen right there.

Right there. Minnesota, you know, is going to b lean down. That takes her to two sixty five.

Now you see why Pennsylvania is so important to the Trump camp. They gotta win it. I think Georgia will likely lean Republican. That puts it giving Georgia to them that puts it 235 to 265 electoral vote-wise.

So without even factoring in Nevada, Arizona. Although I think New Hampshire, New Hampshire, I think, is going to lean down, even though she's struggling. That puts her to 269 to 235. Even without North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. She's at 269, they're at 235.

That is the significance of Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes. They had 20, but after the 2020 census, they lost one.

So it was 20, now it's 19.

So if she takes Pennsylvania. I mean You have to have Trump has to absolutely take Here's where it gets very interesting. He could take North Carolina. uh Arizona and Nevada and that puts it at two sixty nine to two sixty eight. And then, of course, you have that in Nebraska.

Remember what I told you? The Omaha? Guess whose favorite to win there? Harris. And then that puts her at 270.

That's the pathway that they're trying to make happen. That is the pathway.

So This is, it's called Nebraska District 2, is what they call it.

So it looks like NE2. That's the Omaha thing, where you get one vote there. She's favored to win that.

So she, this is her strategy.

So that's the first pathway. And this is her very clearly, this is her, what they're trying to make happen.

So even if you have if she takes Pennsylvania That doesn't leave Trump with a lot of options. Pennsylvania, they need to take it. They have to take it. Georgia has 16 electoral votes. Pennsylvania has 19.

And then even if he were to take Arizona and Nevada, I mean I mean, you're going up against the amount of votes that Pennsylvania has.

So that makes it. That's That's a possibility. That is a possibility.

Now Let's say That He wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

So let's look at the map on this. And I'm actually filling this in myself on my desktop.

So he takes Pennsylvania. We're gonna start, by the way, we're gonna start with the baseline. Where everything is now, which is 211 to 219, with the states that we know we're going to be inarguably Democrat and Republican.

So you would have, if he takes Pennsylvania, you make that lean Republican, you make North Carolina, and I say lean Republican. Light red because it's t it's close. You give him on top of that baseline, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, that puts him at 254 to 211, right? Let's say. Let's say that she takes Nevada.

She can take Nevada. That puts her at 217 still to 254 without even allocating in Arizona and the other blue wall. Like you can give her the blue wall. We'll go ahead and give her we'll go ahead and give her the blue wall because I think some of those a couple of the states may hold at least. That puts her at 242 to 254.

So And then I think Georgia will go. He takes Georgia on top of it. And that puts him at two seventy. and you would still have 26 toss-ups. Even if she were to take, I think she's gonna let me do this.

Let me hit this. This is gonna be New Hampshire is gonna be probably lean Democrat. Uh, give her a New Hampshire that puts her up. Put Minnesota it's 256 still to 270. Toss-ups are 12.

I mean, it's still, even still, even with Arizona. She's still not there. Still not there.

So, if he were to take Pennsylvania and then he, because I think Georgia is going to go his way and North Carolina, then he's got it. And then he will be at two s he'll be at two hundred seventy and she'll be at two sixty eight.

Now, remember what I told you about replacing that brick. If you look at the blue wall and you factor in, even if she were to lose. Pennsylvania, she could replace it with Georgia. If she loses Wisconsin or Michigan, she could replace it with Georgia. Uh she could take North Carolina, too.

So that's That's a lot harder because you're talking about 19 electoral votes. That's a lot harder. She would have to win Georgia. Or North Carolina, and she would have to take either she would have to take Arizona or Nevada. You have to make uh those numbers up.

Now if she loses if she doesn't take the blue wall at all. Let's say she doesn't take Wisconsin or Michigan or whatever. She would have to win all the Sunbelt states, which is not going to happen. There's a lot of discussion about the red wall. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

He did not in 2020. If he takes Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He can lose North Carolina, he can lose Nevada, and he can lose Georgia. He would just need Arizona has 11 electoral votes. He would just need Arizona and he would win.

So She has a couple of more pathways. But hers are so hard. the alternative pathway she has. besides the two most obvious, are pretty much It's just pretty much inconceivable. I offer them up because it, I mean, it is a pathway, but I just don't think that she's, I'm sorry, she's not going to win all the Sunbelt states.

That's stupid. Especially when she's underperforming in some of these battleground states. what Clinton and Biden have done.

Now, I will caution you. A lot of these exit polls are trash. Don't pay attention to any of them. Because these, remember, the exit polls were so wrong in 2020 and they were so wrong. Oh my gosh, in 2016.

They were kinda alright in 22.

So You gotta just You don't need, like I said, you don't need that insight because they're just going to be distracting and it's going to be noise. It really will be. I know we got to get moving, but those are some of the pathways for it. We got to talk about the house to come still. Ready-wise, is always ready, even if you're not.

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That's readywise.com. Promo code Dana20 for 20% off. And now, all of the news you would probably miss, it's time for Dana's Quick Vive. All right, so the housing market is apparently mirroring 2007, according to a new report. Not good, obviously.

And uh Making people nervous, National Association of Realtors found that the share of new homes purchased in 2024 increased slightly to 15%, but existing home purchases declined to 85%. This reflects the exact same housing market that existed in 07 when new home purchases made up roughly 15% of the market share and existing homes were about 85%. Oh, stop it. You know what? I'm going to put up my Christmas decorations tomorrow.

I'm just going to do it. I'm going to pause to come and do the show. If it goes sideways, that's what I'm gonna do. If not, yeah. Then I'm gonna be a brat tomorrow.

Anyway, uh Yeah. No, spray on sneakers, this is nasty. Made in, this is Wall Street Journal, made in three minutes and it feels like a sock, which is not how sneakers should feel. Are spray on sneakers the future? No, they're disgusting.

It's a Swiss brand and they literally spray them on like a mold and then that's it. Or no, it's supposed to be your foot. I don't know, it looks weird and I don't like it. Do you spray your shoes on your foot? You spray like a mold, and I guess I don't even.

You say mold like it's actually mold. I just want like an old-fashioned shoe. Stop trying to reinvent the wheel. It's weird. I like it.

The uh Weird headline: hunt is on for the scum who stole Britain's largest inflatable planetarium. It's large. They're investigating it's the largest mobile inflatable planetarium. It's been a regular feature at schools. It looks like a weird, it looks like a goth igloo.

I'm not gonna lie. Like, if Vikings made igloos, this is what it looked like. And it has some dracolor curtains in there. Wand showing you. Got them drac alert curtains in there.

Local police issued the alert after the inflatable. was stolen. And uh, the couple thinks that they also intended to take the trailer restored in rather than the dome itself, so they're on the lookout, okay. A uh A South Carolina hunter fatally shoots a woman that he thought was a deer. Christopher McDonald.

Was apparently illegally hunting at night. He fired off three rounds from a shotgun and struck a couple, killing the woman. And he was hunting at night. It was 8.15 p.m. I guess the couple were out walking in the woods.

I don't know. I I just were they quiet? Like do you not know what a deer sounds like? I just Like, if you hear people walking and like human noises, it's probably not a deer. He turned himself in and he confessed to illegally hunting.

But man, that's wild. What a crazy story. He's back in court in December. Stick with us. Black Wife Will Coffee has the absolute best beans, the best roasts, the best flavor profiles that are out there.

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Get out the vote. Let's get out the vote. Let's get out. the vote let's get out the vote let's get out The vote, let's win. Ha ha ha.

That was cringe. Sh they were chanting and then she hijacked it and ruined it.

So it's like the second time this has happened. She's horrible at this. Do not let her near a chance. She's horrible. Welcome back to the program.

Dana Lash with you. We're at the top of this, or bottom of the second hour. And um A lot of stuff to focus on. The House races to watch on election night tonight. You have A few You have the 7th District in Virginia.

That's the Venman one. I'm not a Venman fan. You guys know him, his brother, and the military secrets and all that stuff. Democrat Eugene Vinman, Republican Derek Anderson, these are the guys that are battling. And it's tilting Democrat, but it's not safe.

You have Nebraska's second district. Uh this has been this is what is a What they call crossover districts. Crossover districts are districts that have, as their rep, one member of a party. And then it was carried by the president of the presidential nominee of the opposite party. And then the Uh power the part the authority or influence of the party holder or the the seat holder, their party is in decline.

And there are like 19 or 20 of these districts. And a lot of this they had their lines redrawn after midterms.

So This is one of these. This is the second district in Nebraska. It's considered a Biden crossover. Biden would have won this four years ago. This is.

A guy who's a retired Air Force officer. He flipped the district in 2016. He defeated the Democrat Brad Ashford by like barely a point. And so he is going up against Democrat Tony Vargas. This guy's a 40-year-old state senator.

He's trying to be the first Latino member of Congress from Nebraska. And he, in 2022, Uh This representative Don Bagan, who's the centrist Air Force guy, he defeated him by less than three points. And so it looks, the district looks like it's leaning for Harris. But This, but Bacon is leading Vargas.

So it's kind of a weird one to watch. And you have a Trump crossover seat in Maine's 2nd District. And then you've got a Trump-backed guy, a 30-year-old state rep, former NASCAR driver. Uh and then he's going up gun control's a big issue there. Uh because The guy, the Democrat who's running Jared Golden, who is the Democrat rep, he's the incumbent.

He. tried to become more moderate and he's a big gun control guy. And He's been kind of waffling on his support for Second Amendment rights.

So, this has been a big issue in that race. Michigan's 7th District is an open seat. Republican and Democrat $37 million in ad spending for that race. And then you have Colorado, eighth district. You have two freshmen going up against each other.

Pennsylvania is their tenth district, is tilting Republican.

Now the Colorado eighth district is a toss up. Michigan's seventh district tilts Republican. Pennsylvania's tenth district goes Uh tilts Republican. And You've uh I mean, I think it'll probably end that one only go Republican. New York's 19th district, that tilts Democrat.

45th District in California is considered a toss-up. North Carolina's first district, that's a redistrict. a redistricted district that is leaning Democrat. Uh then you have Iowa's third district leaning Republican.

So There are a number of these house races. And five of them, it's considered there's going to be like five of them are going to be the races to watch that are going to be the determining factor in controlling the house. And one of those is that Virginia seventh seat. That's that Venman race. Uh then you've got the New York 17th District.

That's the Lawler. He went up against Mahoney. Nebraska's second district, and we just talked about New Mexico's second district. uh which is so that one is uh Like, apparently, like, abortion and immigration are the biggest issues there. It's a rematch between a Democrat incumbent and a former Republic Republican rep.

And then you have Alaska as an at-large district.

So those are the five races that, or ultimately, a lot are saying that are going to determine the control of the House.

Now In terms of, excuse me, in terms of who's going to, we're projected, I think that Republicans are going to keep the Senate at 51 seats, although. They could, I think, take more of them. They could actually end up getting more than just the 51 seats. But for I think Republicans may There's a lot of toss-ups. A lot of toss-up rates.

10 are Democrats. There are 12 Republican toss-up races. Uh you have More toss-up and lean Democrat races than you do Republicans.

So they definitely have a lot more ground that they have to defend. But It's there's a possibility. I mean, we could take the House and the Senate, and we could take the White House. All of that's going to depend on how well Trump performs and what the turnout is going to be like. If you have crushing, huge.

Uh crushing huge. Republican turnout, and you have all, like, for instance, and you have in. Pennsylvania that Senate race. I Casey, if he's defeated, that's a very interesting sign. I mean, there's a really, there's a chance you could sweep all three.

There's a chance that this could be in terms of the amount of seats taken. More of a victory for Trump than in 2016. Or it could be like 2020. I know, super helpful, isn't it? It's so close, guys.

That's what happens when it's this close and everything's decided in the margins. It's when it's this close, and when you have the plurality of voters that are non- major party voters, meaning they're not hardcore Republicans, they're not hardcore Democrats. That's a huge issue.

So, two odds and ends: steel workers have been showing up for Trump and Pittsburgh. Bucking the union that endorsed terrorists. This is a political piece. Not the first time that something like this has happened.

Someone said he saved us once with tariffs. Interesting.

You had the union bosses that supported her, but the union workers would not. And then a survey that came out, and this is actually a decent survey. I looked at this last night before choosing to include this today. It's from Axios, and Swing State College students she's leading.

Now that's fine. She can lead as much as she wants to with swing state college students. They don't turn out to vote. as much as older. Voters do.

So, kind of interesting. I want to switch gears here. One cultural touchstone you need to know about this update. Do you guys remember the Algerian boxer in Maine? Kield.

Caliph? Am I Caliph? Remember that boxer? who wanted to fight women. In a main clay Algerian French.

And they were saying that, no, no, no, he's a she and I mean, he like was beating the hell out of the female opponents. And then they tried to say that, oh, no, no, he, she has a uh they were calling her she and saying that, oh, well, you know, he has a very uh a unique health Um Uh differentiation. You know, the chromosomes, all this stuff.

Well, apparently, Khalif has lady balls. Uh there's a this no no no French media Got the medical report revealing that he has, quote, testicles. I know you're shocked. He won a gold medal in women's boxing at Paris Olympics. He's a man.

He has testicles. I'm saying factual scientific words, Kane. He has giant Amounts of testosterone. You okay? Huge amounts of testosterone.

Yeah. Because he's got lady balls.

So. They said that he has also And I'm going to try to okay, five alpha. Reductase deficiency?

Sounds right. It's a disorder, it's sexual development disorder only. uniquely. singularly found in biological males. Hmm.

So He's a dude. Remember, the Olympic committee was like, no, no, no, he said he's a dude, and he looked on his pants, and we trust him. He's bigger, he hits harder. I mean, he's a dude. He has testosterone.

I mean his Gametes were functioning. His, yeah.

So I don't know how, like, does that mean he has to give up his gold medal? What does that mean? Hmm? Does he have to give up? His gold medal.

I mean, he's proven a dude.

So I'm curious. I don't know what that means. I don't know how that works. I'm not gonna pretend that I know how it works, but I just feel like You know. He, this all was proven, so there should be an apology because all of the women who were complaining about this were called bigots and name-called and all this stuff.

So now it turns out that this He's actually a dude. Of course you knew that. They had a uh I remember what remember when the International Boxing Association held a press conference and they were trying to like shame everyone into shutting up. And then they said that they confirmed repeatedly, the IBA, that Khalif had failed multiple chromosomal tests, but they couldn't release it, they were unable to release it. From the because of the Algerian Olympic Committee.

So the Alg the Algerian, the AOC, the Algerian, interesting, Olympic committee was trying to hide all this stuff. They knew. They all knew. They let a dude go in. They knew it.

This was not a secret.

So coming up, Couple of things. Nevada's early voting is interesting too.

So far, Republicans are out performing rep uh Democrats. And the Democrats Though They're They're mail-in ballots. are starting to swamp Republicans mail-in ballots. Uh Republicans will win unless Harris wins over the Independents. She has to have a huge number of independents.

They're not breaking for her. That's the other interesting thing. Like the day uh the voters that are voting that didn't vote in 2020 are not breaking for Harris.

So that's going to be interesting as well. We're going to watch all of this. And we have some of the latest news from actual polling places. And uh The shenanigans. That are taking place.

So, some things to watch for. We're going to get into all of that and more. We have Florida Man on the way. As we move, our partners. For this portion of the programme, the Caltech P15.

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It's time for Florida man. Mm-mm.

So, um Pretty good. This guy, a Florida p man A Florida man threatened a state trooper with a gun and a bomb. Police had to send out traffic alerts for residents to stay away from the area. A 39-year-old man threatened a state trooper. at a local wa wa saying, quote, he better back up 'cause I got a gun and a bomb.

Did he have either, though? The Port St. Lucie police arrived. The guy tried to drive to the Wawa off a Tradition Parkway. He crashed into two officers, and troopers attempted to block him in.

They did immobilize him. And uh They did take him into custody. He did not have a bomb. He lied. I go an anabomb, like everything I can think of just to stop getting arrested.

A floor to me and slammed into a telephone pull by running from deputies who busted him for for drugs during a traffic stop. Spring Hill Man. He smacked into a telephone pole while running away from a car filled with drugs.

So They pulled him over. His name is Scott. Schwerian and Heidi Reynolds were pulled over by deputies. And they saw a rolled cigar containing, well, it was pot. Then they found a pillbox, literally with the word Xanax written on it.

That had I don't even know what this pill is. I don't even know how to alpha. Alfrazzleam? Oh, Black Betty Alphra has a lamb, a lamb. I don't even know what it is.

Two separate baggies with fentanyl residue inside.

So. They were trying to detain them. And there was a scuffle, and then they found syringes filled with meth and all kinds of stuff. And the guy tried to run away. Yeah, he did not literally run into with a car.

He ran into it with his person, with his legs. He ran right into a telephone pole and it knocked him down. And they were able to detain him. Makes it funnier, doesn't it? Because it wasn't a car.

He ran right into a telephone pole. How do you run like physically into a telephone pole? Like, was he like, I don't know. He got charged with more things than I'm going to read. And uh the bond is like a thirty thousand dollars.

Yeah. Okay, there you go. Uh let's see here. Um Oh man, that one's heavy. Let's do.

Now we got the guy who's bitten by a shark. Oh. We can talk about the woman who stole $7,000 in return from the dollar general. That She used to work at how do you $7,000? Isn't that like a whole dollar general store?

Right. It's $7,000.

So that's what this she looks like one too. Lee County Sheriff's Office. Uh her name is Dominique McCurdy. Kane, how do you spell Dominique? D-O-M-I-N Ryan Kane.

What? Dominique McCurdy here. Her name is D-O-M-Y-N-K-N-Q-U-E. Oh. That was a little bit McCarty.

She used fake refunds and applied them to her debit cards over the course of two. I am going to make fun of that spelling of that name. Absolutely I am. I mean good night. She said she needed the money for an upcoming move and was financing the future costs associated with it.

And so they said that uh she would scan They have a fifty dollar toy at the Dollar General? A toy called Squeaky Dino multiple times to make the returns. She was charged with larceny and defrauding to obtain property valued at less than $20,000. That's crazy. Yeah, her name I mean, I wouldn't have guessed that she was gonna be a criminal with the spelling of her name, but you know.

Good heavens. Uh this let's see A Florida man threatens to kill everybody. Like literally everyone, but then he decided to break them up into, you know, more organized demographics. Nathaniel James Holmes, 51. He threatened to kill the children of one victim and all of their Jewish friends and all of their African American friends online.

Good night. Jacksonville. Florida. This 51-year-old Nathaniel Holmes got charged with four accounts of transmitting interstate threats to injure people. And he could face 20 years in prison.

So apparently, he got, I guess, he got into a fight with somebody online, and he. you know very or in an organized fashion, threatened everybody.

So he was, this was like that Clines with, like, I'm going to, you know, if anybody starts beating up any more of these wars, I'm going to come after you and what is it, kill your family and your dog, too.

So he was like, I'm going to go after your children and all your Jewish friends and also your African-American friends.

So you say something. That's like racist and anti-Semitic, but then you use African American. You're very careful about your language. Like, people are confusing. This dude is confusing to me.

Anyway, he could go to jail for a long time because you can't make death threats digitally, and Florida has. Especial. Different. Applications of law over it.

So, our third hour is on the way. And coming up, my friend Glenn Reynolds, aka Instapundent. Law professor. What happens after the election? We're gonna talk.

Stick with us. If we don't show up tomorrow, It is entirely possible. That we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot on the forest. Oh my gosh. This is so stupid.

That's just one of the dumbest things that I've ever heard. This language that Democrats are engaging in whenever they go out there and try to scare people into voting is just asinine. It's Oprah Wimprey, who was there campaigning with Kamala Harris last night. It was a late night in Pennsylvania, and it showcases that Kamala Harris, her, we talked about this last hour. If you want to go back into the podcast archives to look or to listen, she's clearly trying to make a play for that, for the blue wall, for the Electoral College.

She wants to shore up Michigan and Wisconsin. She wants to shore up Pennsylvania, where Trump has only had a 0.3 lead going into it. They're trying to bank all those early votes so that they can withstand the deluge of same-day Republican voting. And I don't know if it helps her to have these celebrities out there, especially in like Pennsylvania. to have celebrities and people like Oprah Winfrey out there to campaign for her, I just don't know if that's helpful for her to have.

Uh and I also think that this language is asinine. I mean He was president before, so why didn't he do that? Trump was literally in the White House for four years. Why didn't he do it then, Kamala? He's going to do something that he didn't do when he was President the first time.

He's never going to let you vote again. Just you see, this is asinine. But they're worried. She spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania. And that wasn't, Democrats had to do a U-turn because when it was Biden, Biden's play, as I was explaining, for his electoral pathway, he was going to go for.

Uh I mean he was gonna he had the blue wall he took the blue wall in 2020. But he underperformed Democrats. Previously, in those states, Trump bust through the blue wall like the Kool-Aid man back in 2016. Biden underperformed. I think that they were anticipating Biden doing poorly in those states.

So they were going to try to make a play for Georgia. But then they swapped them out. Harris is going to have a harder time in Georgia.

So they were trying to, she was performing better in Pennsylvania than in Georgia.

So they were going to make that play and have that blue wall and hope that that holds. And I was telling you what the difference, and I don't want to go through it all again, but you can go back in the archives and listen. In minute detail, what that would look like if she even were to be successful. But it all comes down to. Turnout.

All of this comes down to turnout at this point. Republicans have done a really, really good job. I wish they would have started earlier, is my only complaint. And you guys know this because I've talked about it for a year and a half now. They going into 2020, Democrats had a 600,000-plus Uh Advantage.

of registered voters over Republican registered voters. Republicans have whittled that down to half.

So there I think it was something like three hundred almost three hundred thousand additional uh registered voters for Republicans.

So they cut the deficit for that.

So Hopefully everybody gets out and votes.

Now Going into election day in 2020, Joe Biden had over a million dollars, a million dollars.

Sorry, he had over a million votes. Going into election day.

So he banked. um over a million votes and had that advantage going into election day. The Margin in New Hampshire.

Well the margin and I'm trying to think 'cause in in these states Looking at the.

So, we're not over going in Pennsylvania.

So, in Pennsylvania, I was trying to think. He had like a few thousand advantage in. Uh Michigan a few and and and it didn't materialize for him. In Pennsylvania, it was over a million. But he only ended up with like 80,000 He won that state by a little over 80,000 in 2020.

I wrote about this. If you follow along on Substack, the newsletter. I got into some of that because in 2020, I'm going back, bear with me, got a lot of stuff here.

So In 2020. It was 80,582 approximately. That was how much Biden won the state.

Now, the reason I'm saying this is because I'm looking at early voting here. and and the registered registered Democrats that have voted but were not You just note that these are Democrats that have voted. You're not noting who they're voting for. Uh he carried a 1.1 million vote advantage going into election day in 2020, but He literally only won. Pennsylvania, the Keystone State, by 80,500 80,582 votes.

Think about that for a moment. Again. A million registered voters. One point one million. had that advantage going into election day.

Democrats that Pennsylvania was previously a stronghold. Philly was a stronghold. But the margin was barely over 80,000. And the reason I bring this up again, Harris. is going into election day with 412,000 compared to Biden's 1.1 million.

So that's almost a million. fewer votes that she's going into election day with.

So In Philly For her to be successful. I mean, they have to have A get out the vote. Unlike anything they've ever seen in Philly. I don't know. And that's yeah, and that's where in Steve notes, that's where the Oprah rally was.

It is really hard to get A massive amount of same-day voting. out of an area That has already shown It is not going to turn out heavy for early voting.

So I don't know how to do it. Democrats are going to score a win with that. Uh And again This is after Republicans have whittled that deficit, the 600,000 registered from 2020, down to 300-something thousand.

So, like, for instance, in Philly, they're not. coming out in droves. They didn't come out in droves for early voting. Democrats did not. Uh That's a problem.

This is why she's like living in in Philly right now. This is why.

Now What you're going to hear from Democrats. And I heard this a lot. I heard it in 2016, I heard it in 2018, I heard it in 2020, I heard it in 2020, the cannibalization of same-day votes.

So you have you know, brand new Republicans and then they and then they don't come out and vote. And By And I had a friend that I was talking to a friend of mine who was saying, well, and this is a great point. By definition, they're brand new Republican voters. if they've just been registered.

So, they're not the traditional type of Republican. They're already considered a low-propensity voter. Because they're brand new Republican voters. And It is also hard. For brand new registered voters, it is not as difficult, but it is still.

kind of a a a a fight to also get a high level turnout from that demo.

So I'm just giving you the lay of the land, what Republicans have to deal with and what Democrats have to deal with, to give you, it's harder to be Harris in Pennsylvania. Oh, believe that, a hell of a lot harder. I already told you before that you need to entirely ignore. exit pulled their trash. They are trash.

Absolute trash. The whole purpose of a stupid exit poll is you're collecting data about what voters are worried about, what is motivating voters, and you're looking at what demo is turning out here, and all of this. And it's supposed to be useful in helping to determine. Why the outcome was the way that it was, but they don't really tell you. what the outcome is.

They just tell you why it is. And then they always correct them after the fact.

So it's garbage. It's absolutely garbage. And they're meaningless.

So just ignore them. You already know going in. And they get less accurate as we get as the closer we get. I will say, let's see, a couple of things. There's a lot of gains that Trump has made.

A lot of gains. I know that it's neck and neck. I know that it's in some battleground states, Trump is like leading within a point, and in some, she's leading within a point.

So they're like virtually tied. Yeah. But I will rem I'll keep saying that I still think it's way better to be Uh Trump than it is Harris. By far. By far.

So No one knows, like I said, and this is how I started the piece last night. Not a single person knows what's going to happen right now. It's that close. Even the most honest pollsters out there, I think Dave Wasserman over a cook is phenomenal. Nate Silver, I will say, is at least transparent.

They're even saying they're acknowledging how close it is. It all comes down to turnout. Turnout is always factored in to every major Republican loss. Turnout was the reason. That the and the and the Tea Party was instrumental in this, getting voters out to take back the House.

in 2010. They were instrumental. They were instrumental in helping take back the House this last time, coming out a deluge of Republican voters. Whenever Republicans turn out, The winds are undeniable. This is The rights of election to lose.

Democrats can't do any more than they've already done. They can't They care not. They cannot do any more than they have already done. It is their rights to lose.

So It comes down to enthusiasm. And you measure this. by how many people are coming off for early voting. What are some of the how are some of the state the l down ballot races performing? And this is where it gets real tricky for Democrats in Pennsylvania.

And I'm focusing a lot on Pennsylvania because I ultimately think that that's the key. Clearly, you know that Democrats are making that their last stand because Harris has spent an inordinate amount of time there. And that's what, you know, you can't rely on the exit polling, but you can. rely on where the candidates are going. She's obviously Terrified.

that she's not going to be able to uh keep up that blue wall. She is trying to hold that wall.

Now, one of the things that I think is accurate. Is that The it's this is kind of it's like anecdotal But In heavily blue areas and in heavily red areas, the turnout is high. You gotta measure who's Higher. Yeah, that's that'll come up. But I think that the motivation is enthusiasm on the right.

and discord on the left.

Now think about that. They're not the same. Are you more motivated if you are Really enthusiastic about going and casting that ballot, or if you're like, I hate this person, so I gotta, I just. I have to vote against them. What motivates you more?

Think about it. I mean, it's psychological. Let's see. New Hampshire is a nothing burger.

Sorry if you're there, but you know, I don't really con I don't really see it as being anything determining the competitiveness. I don't believe in the shy Trump voter thing. I don't believe that's a narrative. Everybody's it's like people pollsters are going back and forth on it. And that all comes down to Nate Cohn over at the New York Times, who had said, Oh, it's Trump voters that are less likely to talk to me than Harris voters.

He came up, I mean, it's basically from his stuff that people are taking the shy Trump thing. Don't I don't want people to take that and think it's a real thing because I feel like it'll it gives people an excuse. To be to relax a little bit, and I don't want people to relax. I mean, there needs to be a nervous deluge at the polls.

So Um It's again When the ballots are counted, that's what matters.

Now, speaking of that. We got to talk about some shenanigans. Lorraine has a peace up right now. Election shenanigans. She's got two pieces up: part one and part two.

Because you and she gets into the FCC stuff. She also gets in the voting lines in Philly. uh gets into some of the packs with the with the television ads. And then lawsuits everywhere in Pennsylvania over the ballot and going to vote and all of that. There was a video where she was saying that it was a guy who was claiming to be Haitian who was saying that he voted in Georgia.

But she was like sussing that out and saying that Uh she thinks it's a troll. And she goes into a deep dive into why she thinks it's actually not a real video. But there are issues in Georgia. There have been lawsuits, as she notes, and filed in Fulton and other counties because they've been accepting absentee ballots at like drop-off locations over the weekend. And that doesn't go along.

I mean I don't know how that Georgia changed their law. And remember when they did it, I was super critical. I'm like, they changed it because of COVID, and I actually think they made it more relaxed. And so there's a lot of argument over whether or not the Republican Party understood. The terminology and the reading of those election procedures in Georgia as so, is that an offense or not?

But you need to go and read this piece because she gets into the Colorado stuff with the password thing and all of it.

So there are some things that are happening. That's why the turnout has to you have to overcome margin of error and margin of fraud. And now, all of the news you would probably miss. It's time for Dana's Quick Five. So the Fed is considering, again, Federal Reserve is looking to cut rates while facing a hazy post-election outlook.

Are they gonna cut rates again? Are they? Are they though? It's not doing anything because they won't stop spending. They said that their move two days after the election with inflation, they say inflation's cooling and so the Fed is set to cut interest rates for a second time this year, which makes sense to cut the rates if inflation's gone.

Right, it's going away, so let's cut the rates again. Makes all the sense in the world, doesn't it? That's what one does, you know, when you. Inflation's cooling. I just, I feel like all these people missed the economics class that we were all required to take as college freshmen, but maybe not.

Uh, so and they keep trying to say, well, you know, if the economy is uh struggling right now, it's because of Trump's proposals for tariffs, etc. I don't believe that. That's a whole other topic, too, on tariff that's separate from this. And no, this is not the effect that they're, no. Let's see.

So, a U.S.

soldier who was injured during a Gaza pier operation has passed away. I know that's what we did it as an Biden did it as a vanity exercise. And so now this soldier who is in critical condition, he suffered non-combat injuries while supporting the military's pier off of Gaza. And remember, it was attacked by terrorists. And so now he's passed away, according to the U.S.

military. This happened yesterday. Suffered critical injuries while supporting these operations. I mean, this is another Biden-Harris soldier fatality. Coming up.

Glenn Reynolds, what happens after the election? We'll talk. Stick with us. The Dana Show Podcast, your fast, funny, and informative news companion for those always on the move. Subscribe on YouTube, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I wish all of our candidates were like Alice Cooper in this video. I want to be elected. That would just make it so much more fun, would it not? It would be so great. What a glam goth, like old rock election that would be.

Welcome back, Dana Lash here with you. You can listen coast to coast, watch us on channel 347 direct TV as well.

So, I read, I mean, I know, yes, I know it's election day, but you also kind of have to think. a couple days ahead. Right, so not only we have to think about election day, we got to think what happens, you know, after we get what happens after we get the football, what happens, you know, Charlie Brown gets the football, then what?

So we kind of have to think like, what are we going to do? with all of that, you know, with with with the The consent of the voters.

Now, I liked one of the things that I thought was, you know, I like that Malaya down in Argentina. He went in and like took a machete and started slashing rhetorically everything. And I was thinking to this literally right when this hit my inbox. It's called Thoughts. on the post-selection.

And my friend Glenn Reynolds, the great esteemed instapundent lord of all social media, even though he left it because he hates it and rightfully so. Uh, I thought this was a I thought he needs to actually advise if the Trump campaign gets in there. Just call Glenn and have him tell you what to do because he lays it all out in this. You can find him at instapundant.substack.com, and we'll throw the link down there as well. But Glenn joins us now via Skype, my good friend Knoxville, Knoxville, Tennessee, law professor.

He's a scholar, he's a man of many talents. It's good to see you. I like what you put here. I would love for him to go MLI style and just cut and slash and then bring in Elon Musk 2 trillion cut. What would the toties, what would the bureaucrats do if that happened?

Well, the beauty is they probably would be Caught on the back foot because they don't they're not good at moving fast. They're good at moving sort of undercover and undetectably as they undercut you. And I think you just have to get inside their decision loop and just You know, shock and awe all the way. And I think when Trump came in, Last time. Uh, after he'd been in for several months, I wrote just a little post on my blog where I said.

You know, he's losing position because they're not moving fast enough. They should have had bills delivering on campaign promises lined up like airplanes on a runway. Instead, you know, they focused on that one tax bill that the GOP establishment liked. And that was a mistake because once they passed that, the establishment didn't really need him anymore and was free to start stabbing him in the back.

So he needs to be more strategic. He needs to basically just overwhelm the media and the bureaucracy. With change, change, change, before they can react. It's sort of like saturating the targeting system. Yeah.

On missiles or something, just have so many things incoming at once that they can't react and just move super fast. And I'm kind of. Encourage. I mean, I think he was very naive in 2016. He thought that because he was the Republican president, the Republican Party would just basically support him and he could put Republican Uh, stalwarts and his office holders, and they would support him.

And of course, that turned out not to be true. I think he knows better now, and I think turning to Elon Musk is a very good sign. Uh and Elon is actually very good at thinking strategically. Uh and he's got a lot of other people now on his side who are very good at thinking strategically. Uh and I expect including JD Vance and Vivek and so on.

And I think he's gonna uh unleash them all. Yeah, you make a really good point talking with our friend Glenn Reynolds, who's a best-selling author and, of course, the famed Instapundit about his piece over at Substack and what to expect after election day. You make a really good point about moving fast because I felt like, and I go back to Malay in Argentina because it felt like that's what he did. He worked so fast, the headlines couldn't keep up with him. We all here in the United States were watching it like every day.

He's cutting, like, you know, here's another billion and another billion here. Oh, it's been two hours. He's cut $20 billion. And that's, I mean, it only. Does it seem it?

It seems massive, like massive amounts of money to us, but only in government bureaucracies is it actually considered small. But this is, of course, Glenn. He gets into the White House without a lot of issue. The inauguration in 2016. I mean, the destruction, the fires, the assault, everything that was taking place.

I mean, I think the left actually kind of likes it when they lose because they love rioting. They love cheating and rioting. And we saw, and I know you've seen, they've been boarding up businesses. Our friend Ben Shapiro said it was like Trump Passover. Like these businesses are like putting up the boards and like, please don't come and get us.

You know, I mean, do you, if he wins, do you expect, number one, that widespread kind of destruction? And number two, I is anybody in DC left to move to counter it? I do think that will happen again. I mean, you know, I was one of my friends who was sort of depressed about the election. I was trying to cheer her up, and I was like, well, look, they're not boarding up DC because they think Kamala is going to win.

So I think that's, although, given the way the left is nowadays, they rioted any excuse, I guess. But yeah, I think that. Frankly All these riots in blue communities help Republicans and hurt Democrats. I mean, they make certain Democratic constituencies feel good about themselves. But in overall, if Trump wins this time, As seems likely, it's going to be in no small part in reaction to all this lawlessness.

And even a lot of people who live in blue communities who were initially sort of supportive of it are over it now. I actually. Talked to a Democrat friend the other day who said that if Trump wins, it's going to be because of what she calls the CVS effect. Where everybody's sick of going into drugstores and seeing everything locked up because of untrammeled shoplifting and stuff.

So there's that.

Now, there may be some resistance in Congress. There's a tweet going around now, which is which Jamie Raskin claims is fake, where he says you can vote for Trump if you want, but we're not going to certify him for the election. And that's dated like yesterday.

However, he said more or less the same thing back in August, and it was reported all over in Politico and stuff. If it's a super close election, the Democrats may try to. Fulsome sort of insurrection, 14th Amendment claim to block Trump.

Now, if that happens, there are two things that you could do. One is Trump could ask his followers to just all come to DC, and he could probably have two or three million people in D.C. In very short order. And I think the establishment would back down on that. And I call that the Yeltsin on a tank strategy.

The flip side of it is, he could also just say, okay, fine. You know, your new president is now J.D. Vance. And by the way, he's eligible for two terms, and I'll be his advisor.

So is that what you want, Jamie? That's actually It's a stupid idea, which I think is being touted mostly to satisfy.

Some not very bright Democratic constituencies, which to be fair is mostly Raskin's constituency. But I mean, it would be. Morotic. And counterproductive for them to do it.

So, if they want to try, they can live with the results. Yeah, I feel like they're already trying to put the wheels in motion if there is a Trump victory. Like, especially, and Kane and I talked about it before, and we've had Charles Payne on, we've talked about the economy. I just am waiting for the debt bomb. You've written about this.

I'm waiting for this like economic eruption. And they're going to turn around and be like, Well, see, we told you you elected Trump, it's all his fault. See, they can do that, but I just want to remind you what Rob Emmanuel says, which is never let a crisis go to waste. If you're looking to cut the federal government by, say, 60%. A debt collapse is the perfect time to do it.

You just have to tell people, yeah, we've defaulted, we're broke. You know, all these people who are squealing about us abolishing the Department of Education, moving the FBI headquarters to an abandoned warehouse in Plattsburgh, New York, and stuff like that.

Sorry, there's no money. You guys spent it all. We're just having to clean up the mess now. And I can tell you from the university setting. That the only time you can successfully cut budgets at a university is when you're in a financial crisis.

And I think that's probably true for the US government too, that a financial crisis. Is actually the only time you can really slash budgets. And that's actually what Millet did. I mean, that's his excuse or his opportunity: they were broke. They were defaulting.

The previous administration had once again spent them into bankruptcy. And so he's like, I gotta clean up this mess. And the public supported him. And you know, I don't know, I've written about the debt bomb pretty recently on my sub stack as well. And as I've said, people have been saying it's going to explode on us any day now for literally as long as I've been alive.

But something that can't go on forever won't, and it can't go on forever. It's getting steadily worse. My wife is suspicious that the Federal Reserve is just waiting to pull the trigger and have everything collapse after Trump's elected. I kind of maybe share some arguments. Dr.

Helen, I think, might be onto something. I identify with some of that. Talking with our friend Glenn Reynolds. Last thing for you, Glenn. I know it's like reading a crystal ball at this point, or like a magic eight ball, or something that you can just shake and peer into.

I don't know. I mean, It's so close. But I feel like there are some signs that after the fact, we're going to look back and go, why didn't we know? Oh, that makes sense. We should have known that it was a victory there or whatever.

What do you think is going to happen tonight? I mean, I you know I'm not a good predictor. My gut says Trump's going to win and he's going to win pretty soundly. I put a little graphic at the top of my sub stack, and it wasn't very serious, but I just went through an election. calculator and sort of picked all the states I thought Trump had A chance of winning significantly.

And I even left a couple out that would be sort of a long shot, but I wouldn't rule out completely. And that had to be like 341. It looks pretty convincing. Will he get that? Who knows?

I will say in 2016, I was a lot less optimistic than this. And this election feels more to me like 2016 than it feels like 2020. And in 2020, the Democrats' claim was: we'll bring things back to normal after all the chaos of Trump, which of course was chaos they mostly created. But now they can't say that because they've created even more chaos when they're in power.

Now Trump looks like the normal guy. Yeah, that's how bad Democrats are. They hated him so bad, they made him look like more normal compared to them. I don't, it's going to be interesting either way.

So, hopefully, nothing will burn tonight. We'll see. Glenn Reynolds over at Instapundin at Substack, because that'll be another essay that I read. Always good to see you, my friend. Thank you.

Thank you. Subscribe to the Dana Show podcast because who says you can't make fun of people while staying informed on your own personal time? Subscribe on YouTube, Apple, or wherever you get your podcast. I still maintain that the biggest realization and the, you know, really the epitaph of Kamala Harris's political career is going to be not picking Josh Shapiro. in Pennsylvania.

What They did. In net selection, has done more to divide and splinter their own side. than anything that Republicans could have ever done. And I honestly do not think that the full measure of that has been felt. I don't think this election will be the last measure of it either.

I really do believe that they are going to, and it's not because he was like. You know, some super kid, super governor, superman guy, you know, like in the party. It's because it clearly was. in opposition to him being Jewish. That's why he wasn't selected.

And there are so many people. who that really hit in the Democrat Party. And like I said, That full measure is is still to come.

Now We uh have gone over Electoral College, you need to go to Substack. Lorraine has she's been following the shenanigans over there at different polling sites. And there is A lot, there are going to be false claims about different machines and things like that. Be very careful what you believe. Because a lot of stuff that comes out today is just, it's, there are some agitators on the right.

Then you that's most of the left.

So much of it is going to be pure propaganda. Just keep a singular focus. You did your part. If you haven't, you better go do it. And you better make sure, that sounded like a parent lecturing.

I didn't mean to sent, but yeah, you better go do it. And then you better make sure that everyone you know has voted. Everybody that you know has voted. And then After that You just need to keep focused and then just keep a clear head and be cool. Just that's all you gotta that's all you gotta do.

Uh but You know Ultimately. Hopefully. I'm it's so close and I'm It's so close that I don't even want to forecast. I will say, I think we'll take the Senate. I I feel pretty confident in that.

And I didn't feel confident about the house a couple of months ago. I feel a lot better about the house tonight. But it's the White House that's very close. And I know. You also have to be cautious in, yes, use down ticket.

To measure the health at the top of the ticket, but also what is the other thing, the last thing. that I've told you about too, split ticket voting. It's not 100%. to look at down ballot to give you an indication of top of ticket. You got to keep that in mind.

Split ticket voting. All of these trends usually emerge, of course, after the ballots are counted.

So I'm going to be on the notes section of Substack tonight. I'll be popping it on Facebook and on X. And I have I'll be up on the first for a couple of things. And obviously, we're going to recap everything tomorrow in minute detail. But, you know, just remember, you should not feel.

And I don't want anyone, if there isn't a victory, I don't want people to feel crestfallen or to feel despair. Because so long as you have a r in this republic Good people who want to do good things and stand for good values. As long as you have people willing to do that. Then you have a republic, and you have a republic worth saving. Nothing is so ever.

Far gone. unless you allow it to be so. And remember, this is a generational fight. You're not going to solve all of the nation's problems in one night.

So don't take too much upon yourself and give yourself a little break, relax, exhale. Because no matter what, There are options. Hopefully it's a victory tonight. It's very close, so just pray about it.

So, I just don't want people to be like, oh, I mean, because I have friends who are texting me, they're like, oh my gosh, where are you at? And I'm like talking, texting my friends and like walking them back off the cliff. I'm like, okay, chill out. Chill out. Come on, let's just be.

Now, I will say. I'm not going to promise not to be an insufferable brat tomorrow if things go a certain way, you know? I'm just saying, I'm not saying. I'm trying so hard not to tempt fate with Schadenfreude. But you know what I mean.

Okay. Today's stupidity came. Oh boy. There was so much to choose from today. Oof.

You can't play it all at once. I can't play it all at once. But I thought we'd go ahead and decide. Wisconsin's Democrat Party chair, his name is Benjamin Wickler. He says, look guys, yeah, underperforming right now.

But, now listen to this. The absentee ballots and the in-person election day votes.

So that means that you're going to see a red mirage where it seems like Trump is doing better than he actually is because they haven't counted and reported those absentee ballots yet. And then the blue shift when those ballots are introduced to add to the totals, that could be in the middle of the night. It certainly was in 2015. That's so dumb. And that's not how this works.

We're trying to prepare. We prepare everyone for a big steal, but it's not happening.

So dumb. Yeah, that one's. Folks, that does it for us this election day. Go and vote because your country depends on it. We're going to recap all of this tomorrow.

Find us on Substack. on YouTube, on Facebook, on X. God bless. Go vote. Do it for the country.

Back tomorrow.