It's 504. A good Monday morning to you and welcome into the Carolina Journal News Hour. News Stalk 1110-993WBT. I'm Nick Craig. Good morning to you.
Well, late last night, a bipartisan group of senators voted 60 to 40 in Washington, D.C. to approve a key procedural measure that puts legislation reopening the government on track to pass the United States Senate. Of course, this has been a major national story and a major story here across North Carolina now for the last 41 days. That's how long it's been since the government shut down. Eight Democrat senators, including the number two man in the Senate, Dick Durbin from Maine, Angus King, Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto, and Jackie Rosen.
Two senators from New Hampshire, Maggie Hassen and Jaheen Shaheen, John Fetterman from Pennsylvania, and former vice presidential nominee, Virginia Senator Tim Cain, joined 52 Republicans in. The procedural vote getting it to that 60 to 40 threshold. Sunday's late-night vote may begin. It is expected to begin the process to reopen the federal government, but it is likely to take at least another day, if not two, because before the government can reopen, the Senate must vote to approve the measure with a simple majority. All but assured, after obtaining the 60 votes needed on the procedural test that took place, the final yay vote came in shortly after 10:30 p.m.
Sunday night, getting that to that 60-40 threshold that we've talked about this morning.
So, it will then again take another full vote in the Senate. That would come up today, and then the House will have to return to Washington, D.C. to pass this legislation. Majority Leader John Thune, the Republican from South Dakota, said before the vote, I am optimistic that after almost six weeks of this shutdown, Down, we will finally be able to end it. Angus King, a Democrat, rather a senator from Maine, who is an independent, however, does a caucus with the Democrat and intends to be a solid Democrat vote, told reporters Sunday upon emerging from a meeting with Senate Democrats, part of the deal is for a future vote for ACA, that's American Health, American Care Act or Obamacare subsidies moving forward.
That part of this deal, while it does not include the subsidies that Democrats have shut down the government for for the last 41 days, there is some at least a handshake deal or a rumored handshake deal that those subsidies will be discussed sometime in the month of December before we turn the calendar over to 2026. It is important to note that even though there is that handshake deal on the table, it does not mean that any of these Affordable Care Act or Obamacare subsidies Will move forward in December. It means it will be discussed, which is rather ironic, as right before the shutdown began. You had President Donald Trump telling both the Democrat leaders in the United States House and Senate, that would be Hakeem Jefferies and Chuck Schumer, that he would be willing to discuss some of the health care subsidies, some of the issues ongoing with Obamacare, as premiums are people are already getting their renewal notices, premiums set to skyrocket in the next couple of years due to some of these subsidies falling away. Senator Dick Durbin, the number two man in the Senate, posted on his X account last night saying, quote, for 40 days, the longest shutdown in U.S.
history, federal workers went without paychecks. This includes our air traffic controllers whose towers were already understaffed. They continued to work 10-hour days, six days per week to keep our airspace safe with this additional shutdown. At Democrats urging, today's bill is not the same one that we voted down 14 times. Republicans finally woke up and realized their groundhog day needed to end.
This bill is not perfect, but it takes important steps to reduce the shutdown's hurt. Not only would it fully fund SNAP, that of course is the federal food benefit program for the year ahead, but it would also reverse the mass firings the Trump administration ordered through the shutdown. And while the shutdown, again, does continue this morning and it is likely to last at least through today, maybe tomorrow it's going to depend on the schedule there coming out of the United States House and Senate. Many are scratching their head this morning as to why Democrats have finally decided to vote in favor of the continuing resolution, which gives them no wins on any of their major issues. The two major things, really one major thing keeping the federal government shut down were some of those.
ACA subsidies, the Obamacare subsidies that are set to run out at the end of this calendar year in 2025. And there was no movement on that whatsoever, minus, again, that handshake deal that is being reported this morning by Fox News. The proposed legislation would fund all agencies through January the 30th.
So the shutdown would be kicked down the curb till the end of January next year. And it would fund some projects for a full fiscal year, which would run until October the 1st, 2026, once again, according to Fox. The package includes full fiscal year funding for the Department of Agriculture and the FDA. The SNAP program is under the Department of Agriculture, so that's fully funded there. The Department of Veteran Affairs, military construction progresses, and the operation of Congress.
While Thun promised a vote on Obamacare subsidies, according to Fox News, Republicans seem unlikely. To support them, Senator Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina, said after a short meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, quote, I'm not going to continue this windfall profit for insurance companies another day, much less another year. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has also reportedly said he can make no guarantees of an outcome on premium tax credits issuance in the United States House, arguing that it is a complex issue that will require some probably some level of significant discussion among members in the U.S. House, but only those conversations would take place after the federal government opens. The government has been shut down now for 41 days since October the 1st, the longest in history.
However, there are some that are very unhappy with this piece of legislation that moved through the Senate in that procedural vote last night. Roe Conna, who is a Democrat, a Republican. Representative from California called for Senate Democrats to reject Schumer's plan and said bluntly on X, quote, Senator Schumer is no longer effective and should be replaced. If you can't lead the fight to stop health care premiums from skyrocketing for Americans, what will you fight for? Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat from Massachusetts, who has been a no vote fourteen times, was once again A no vote last night wrote on X as well: quote: I will not support a deal that does nothing to make health care more affordable.
We are in a health care emergency. A simple one-year extension of those tax credits would cost less than Donald Trump's $40 billion bailout for Argentina. A vote for this bill is a mistake.
So, even within Democrat circles, some pretty strong language. You've got Rocana calling for Schumer's job in the United States Senate.
Some other prominent Democrats also not voting for that legislation as well. Just eight flipping across the aisle and voting for this again, being reported by Fox News this morning: a handshake deal to discuss some of these ACA or Obamacare subsidies throughout the month of December. It is not immediately clear how quickly those discussions will begin, or as we've heard from Senator Mike Johnson and John. House Speaker Mike Johnson, I should say, and Senator John Thune. Discussions, fine, those may take place.
There's no guarantee that any of those are set to pass.
However, we are on track this morning and through the day today to reopen the federal government after more than 10,000 flights were reportedly canceled yesterday, reportedly delayed or canceled across the United States. The FAA late last week putting 40 airports on notice, reducing some of their flight capacity by 10%. That did include Charlotte Douglas, of course, in the Queen City. That was the only North Carolina airport to make the list of 40 that were dealing with some of those reductions in air traffic in and out. Yesterday, a messy travel day, the worst since the federal government shut down.
Some of those fears and pains will hopefully alleviate in the next couple of days. We will keep our eyes on all of the details right here on the Carolina Journal News Hour. And as you can imagine, continued coverage throughout the day right here on News Talk 1110 and 99.3 WBT. This is the story of the one. As a custodial supervisor at a high school, he knows that during cold and flu season, germs spread fast.
It's why he partners with Granger to stay fully stocked on the products and supplies he needs, from tissues to disinfectants to floor scrubbers. Also that he can help students, staff, and teachers stay healthy and focused. Call 1-800-GRA, clickgranger.com, or just stop by. Granger for the ones who get it done. It's 5:20.
Welcome back to the Carolina Journal News Hour, News Talk 1110-993 WBT. I'm Nick Craig. Good morning to you.
We are talking CPI this morning on the Carolina Journal News Hour. No, not the Consumer Price Index, but the Civitas Partisan Index and why that's relevant as we head into the midterm elections in 2026. To walk us through that this morning, Dr. Andy Jackson from the John Locke Foundation joins us on the Carolina Journal News Hour. Andy, can you explain to our audience this morning, maybe some new folks to North Carolina, just getting engaged in what's going on politically?
What is the Civitas Partisan Index and why is it relevant? Yeah, well, the CPI is basically a baseline indicator of how legislative districts in North Carolina are expected to go, all other things being equal. And of course, they're never always equal in all these other regards.
So we take the statewide results of Of nine Council of State elections, except for the governor, this year. And we calculate those and we put those numbers in every precinct. And then we assign those precincts based on their current districts into those districts. And then we can, based on that, have a basic indication of how likely this district is to go Republican or go Democratic, all other things being equal. And, Andy, you mentioned that you use some of the data from Council of State members or the Council of State races, I should say.
Why not just look at like strict partisan registration? Is it the unaffiliated vote in there that maybe screws some things up and you can't really look and tell based on some of those unaffiliated votes? What's the reason for that?
Well, we go by the actual votes rather than voter registration. And we exclude other parties because, well, basically, it gunks up the works. And we don't elect people from all those other parties.
So it's really a much more efficient design if we just look at Republican and Democratic votes. And so when we do it that way, we're able to get a nice. Tight indication of how that district's going to vote. If we ever have districts that will vote for an unaffiliated candidate on a regular basis, then we might have to look at other things. And we do the Council of State races because you can't look at races within the district themselves because there's a lot of other data points like who's running, how much money is being spent in the race.
So you don't really use legislative races to check on the voting tendency of those districts. And folks probably know that Donald Trump won the state in 2024. Democrat Governor Josh Stein won the governor's mansion. But Andy, it's interesting, as you mentioned, looking at the Council of State members, that's a pretty evenly split group of individuals.
Some Democrats had big nights.
Some Republicans had big nights. That's a pretty interesting data or set of data points to use.
Well, that's the reason we do that is because those down ballot council estate races are. In essence, generic votes. They're going to be close. They're going to be between 55 to 45 percent, usually a lot less than that. And people have less of a reason to kind of break from their basic tendencies when they vote for those races.
That's the reason it's hard to have a breakout candidate in those council state races. That makes them especially useful. You know, votes for president, votes for senate, as we discovered this last time around, vote for governor. All of those can have factors that'll make people kind of move away from their baseline. And we really want to get that.
Baseline indication of how we expect districts to go. And these races are the best ones to do that. Andy, before we get into some of the details out of the 2026 CPI data that you're tracking this morning, the Council of State is something that seemingly is a mystery in North Carolina, not the individuals themselves, but the fact that individuals seemingly go down the ballot, vote for some Democrats to be on the Council of State, some Republicans. It's very interesting to see that voters don't always just vote straight R or straight D based on their party affiliation. That's true.
Now, most people do, but we have enough people, maybe 10%, who can go either way in any given election. And because North Carolina is such a closely divided state, I mean, we're basically a 52, 48, or 51, 49 Republican state.
So Democrats do have a legitimate shot of winning in any given election statewide.
So you got those races there. And it's just the small things. Who's the incumbent? Who has a better message? Who's maybe a little less frightening than the other candidate?
And all of those things will push things one way or another just enough to let the other candidate win. And that's what we see in these council state races. They're pretty close almost invariably. And it takes just a little bit of movement to shift from one side winning or the other. All right, Eddie, let's dive into it.
This report came out last week from the John Locke Foundation. This is something that has been going on for quite some time, the Civitas Partisan Index. Walk us through some of the data that you're tracking in this report.
Well, we've we've got It's changed a little bit from the last time around 2024 when we ran this, but this year in the North Carolina Senate, we have 16 safe Republican seats, nine lean Republican seats. And safe means unless somebody dies or there's some really weird thing, that party is going to win that seat. Likely means they're usually going to win unless there's an especially strong challenger or the other side has a good year. We have lean districts, and those are ones that usually go for a certain party, but they can go either way. They're pretty competitive.
And then we have toss-up districts where they're so close, we really don't want to venture a guess about which way they're going to go.
So going back there, we have 16 safe. Republican seats in the Senate, nine likely Republican, three lean Republican. All those added together adds up to 28, which is enough by itself for Republicans to have a majority. For the Democrats, 16 safe seats, one likely, two lean, and then there's three toss-up districts.
So if we have a perfectly even year, Republicans will have a majority in the Senate, not a super majority. And then in the House, we have 41 safe Republican seats, 10 likely Republican seats, 15 lean Republican seats. Democratic side, we have 37 safe seats. Six likely four lien, and then we finally have seven toss-up seats.
Now, there's been some shifting there. From 24 to 26, the states moved a little bit more Democratic as far as the liens of some of these seats go, but we're still, as far as the General Assembly goes, it's still an advantage for the Republicans. It's an advantage for the Republicans, obviously, as you talk about getting to the majority. But Andy, I would imagine that Republican lawmakers in the General Assembly and all their various campaign staffs and all the various political folks that are going to be working on these races next year, yes, a majority is good, but those lawmakers are going to want that super majority so that they can override any additional vetoes from Democrat Governor Josh Stein. Yeah.
Um, I'd say that's that's pretty unlikely given you know what we know about the districts but also what we know about 2026 as a midterm election year the president's party almost invariably suffers losses in midterm elections uh we kind of saw that uh in the elections we had last week in in places like virginia new jersey we saw that in municipal races in north carolina last week democrats did quite well even in the officially uh nonpartisan races you know you know both parties had their dogs in in those races there um and so if those are an indication and if history is any indication uh republicans are going to fall well short of supermajorities in both the house and the senate um and there's also a chance that democrats especially in the house could actually get a majority it's not going to be easy um because they're going to have to win some of these lean republican seats but as we've seen when you look at past Civitas partisan indexes in these midterm elections, the party out of the White House does tend to pick up about a third to a half of those lean seats from the from the other party. And if that goes that way this year in the House, it's going to be a really close thing. We'll continue the conversation with Dr. Andy Jackson from the John Locke Foundation coming up after this. You're listening to the Carolina Journal News Hour.
It's 536. Welcome back to the Carolina Journal News Hour, News Talk 1110-993 WBT. I'm Nick Craig. Good morning to you.
Turning our attention to Washington, D.C. this morning, the Senate took a massive step forward on its way to reopening the federal government late Sunday night with a group of Senate Democrats caving and joining Republicans in their bid to pass a revamped plan to end the shutdown. Signs that the shutdown, which is now in its 41st day, I should say, could be ending and is becoming more and more of a reality as some of the details of this bipartisan package is now available. Eight Senate Democrats cross the aisle to mark the first step in the GOP's quest to end the shutdown. That procedural vote passing last night, 60 to 40, 60 is that threshold, of course, that you've been hearing about over the last couple of weeks to move forward with a continuing resolution.
As it stands right now, it would keep the federal government funded, at least in large portion, until January 30th of 2026. Part of the CR that didn't move through that procedural vote last night would also fund a snap through the Department of Agriculture through the end of next fiscal year, which is at the end of October 2026. There is nothing in this new resolution that extends ACA or Obamacare tax subsidies for individuals getting some of their premium renewal notices. Maybe you've already got those or they are expected in in the next couple of days. That 60-vote threshold was met last night.
The Senate will likely gavel back in sometime early today and make that final 60-vote threshold before sending that legislation over to the United States House, where it will have to get a same vote. Presumably, we'll have the majority to make that happen there. And then it is sent on over to a president. President Donald Trump's desk for a signature. This has been a very interesting process to watch unfold over the last 41 days.
Now, officially, the longest shutdown ever, full government shutdown in U.S. history. Many disruptions being felt in airports across the country. That is probably what some of the most in terms of immediate impacts non-federal government employees have been feeling. More than 10,000 flights either delayed or canceled at major airports across the U.S.
yesterday. Charlotte, one of 40 airports that we learned late last week, would be seeing a reduction of 10% of its outgoing flights due to some staffing shortages from air traffic controllers and other FAA employees that work within airports all across the United States. We will continue to track this progress throughout the day. We'll bring you up to date as tomorrow morning right here on the Carolina Journal News Hour and continued coverage throughout the day right here on News Talk 1110 and 99. WBT, where it's now 5:39.
You're listening to the Carolina Journal News Hour. We're continuing our conversation this morning with Dr. Andy Jackson of the John Locke Foundation on the recently released CPI. That is the Civitas Partisan Index and how things are shaking up in North Carolina as we head into the 2026 midterm elections.
Well, and as we will continue to watch the elections play out, primaries will take place early next year. We'll then, of course, have the election in November of 2026. Andy, in terms of success for the Democrats, getting control of the North Carolina House would be an insanely large win for them. Democrats have not had the majority now for the better part of 15 years. You can imagine they're going to be working very hard to make that possible.
They are. And they've, you know, some and some of the things that we've seen, there's been some shifts, especially in these urban districts that are currently represented by Republicans. And I should say on the edge of these urban areas. An example here, Tricia Cotham's district used to be a lean Republican, but with the update and the data, it is now a toss-up district. We have a couple of districts in Wake County that are the same way that have gone from lean Republican to toss-up.
So these are going to represent prime pickup opportunities for Democrats. Certainly, they're going to put the resources in there. I imagine Republicans will as well to try to hold on to those seats. It's just the seats that are in play are. Mostly benefiting Democrats, and the seats that have shifted some areas have shifted more Republican, but that's mostly in the rural East where Republicans already hold those seats.
So the shifts have been a little more efficient as far as Democrats are concerned. It will help them out come November next year. Yeah, going from like a Republican plus nine to a Republican plus 14, Andy, I guess really doesn't do you any good. You're already probably going to win that seat barring some unextreme circumstances.
So not much of an advantage there for Republicans. Let's go back to these kind of outskirt urban districts that you're talking about. Tricia Cotham is a great example of that. Andy, is this kind of the urban sprawl that's going on in many of our large metropolitan areas across the state? North Carolina is the number one state for business.
People are moving in all across the country. And as these metroplexes become so expensive to live, they're seemingly moving out in every direction. They are. The urban areas are expanding. And these areas in northern and southern Mecklenburg County, northern and southern Wake County, and even the triad too.
There are some areas on the outskirts of Greensboro and Winston-Salem where the districts are Republican. And they're probably still going to be Republican represented this year, but they are moving in a Democratic direction. And so these are all areas where Republicans are playing defense, but it's spilling over into some adjacent counties now. In the Charlotte metro area, Cabarris has been trending Democratic. And so we could see a couple of really interesting competitive races there.
Even in Johnston County, which has been ruby red recently, we have kind of these outer exurbs. Areas that are sh have shifted a little bit Democratic. Republican will probably still win there, but it's going to make for another area where Republicans are going to have to play defense, where a couple of years ago they would have just been able to forget about that race and concentrated their resources elsewhere.
Well, and I really want, I'm glad you brought up that point. That's exactly where I was going to transition with that. Andy, as you take some of these races that were in years past pretty strong Republican seats, you don't have to worry about raising a whole lot of money. You don't have to worry about putting a whole bunch of resources in it from the caucus standpoint or the state Republican Party standpoint. You add more and more of these lean districts and seats that you're talking about that could be more competitive.
That's going to cause more resources to be split across the state. Right. And of course, that goes both ways. Democrats will have to pour more resources in when they're really thinking this is a seat they can pick up rather than just picking a sacrificial candidate to run against the incumbent Republican.
So, yeah, this is going to spread the playing field out for both parties, maybe especially for Republicans, because incumbents often can raise their money and then maybe help out some of their colleagues. They're going to be fighting for their lives basically in some of these urban and suburban districts. And so that's going to make it a tougher time for those candidates.
Now, there are areas in the east and the sandhills that are trending Republicans, but at least this year, they're either already Republican or they're not quite ready for the taking yet.
So maybe in 2028 or 2030, they could flip, but it seems unlikely this year.
So between the fact that we have a midterm and the fact Of where these shifts have taken place, this does seem to be a relatively good year for Democrats coming up. Andy, I'm not going to try and ask you to project what is going to happen in elections in 2028 and 2030, as you just mentioned, but it is on my mind. These maps are essentially locked in stone, barring some crazy lawsuit out of left field that forces complete redraws. These maps are going to be in place through those 2030 elections. When we get new census data, safe to assume that over the next four or five years, that urban sprawl is going to continue and the House and maybe even some districts in the North Carolina Senate become more and more competitive for Democrats.
It could happen.
Now, part of this is we've we've been in the Trump era for a decade now. And I think that may have accelerated processes that were already in place as far as these urban and rural shifts in voting patterns go. The question is: What's going to happen when Trump is not at the top of the ticket or we're not in a Trump midterm? Will these same trends continue? It is worth noting: Republicans actually gained a little ground in central Charlotte and central Raleigh, but it doesn't really help them because they're just going from super safe Democratic to.
You know, safe Democratic, but not super safe Democratic.
So, you know, it really matters not just that you're gaining, but also where you're gaining, which districts you're gaining.
So, it is going to be an interesting question about what happens in 28 and 30. Are Republicans going to be able to kind of make a comeback in this area when you don't have the Trump factor driving things? That's a really open question. And I don't know if anybody has a solid prediction for that. Yes, we know predictions in politics for the most part.
People try not to do them because they almost always don't work out as initially anticipated. Andy, if I could just ask you for a second, obviously big midterm election or big municipal elections, I should say, across the state of North Carolina last week. You mentioned at the top Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City as well. Do you take anything from what we saw last week? And do you immediately attribute that to the midterms in 2026?
Or is it kind of hard to draw some of those parallels, at least this far out still? It's kind of hard. We do know that these odd-year elections in those areas kind of have the same thing happening to them that you see in the midterm elections two years later.
So, as far as that goes, well, yes, that's a trend, especially with Virginia, because Virginia will still occasionally elect Republicans, but only if there's a Democrat in the White House. And so, I think. You know, what you might want to look at more than the result is maybe the margins. Democrats did a little bit better than you would expect compared to a year ago. And if that holds up this year, if we see like a 5% shift across the board, that's going to overwhelm a lot of these marginal districts.
You know, it's kind of like the reverse of what we saw in 2010. 2010, we had districts drawn by Democrats for the benefit of Democrats, but the red wave that year was really a tsunami. It just overwhelmed all these districts. It's possible that we could see something similar this year. If twenty twenty six is just as good a year for Democrats as twenty ten was for Republicans, you can't gerrymander enough to overcome a wave that big.
No question about that. We will continue our election coverage as we get into the early and latter parts of 2026. You can get some more information this morning on the CPI, the Civitas Partisan Index, this morning by visiting our website, johnlocke.org. We appreciate the insight and the information this morning. Dr.
Andy Jackson from the John Locke Foundation joins us on the Carolina Journal News Hour. It's now 5:54. Welcome back to the Carolina Journal News Hour, News Talk 11:10-99.3. WBT, a pretty significant political story unfolding late last week in North Carolina. Office of Management and Budget Deputy Director Dan Bishop, who formerly represented North Carolina in Congress, as well as being a member of the North Carolina House and Senate, is set to be taking a new role as the U.S.
Attorney for the Middle District of North Carolina, which covers areas like Durham, Greensboro, and Greensboro, and Winston-Salem. A story ran last week over at the Federalist, in which it announced that Donald Trump was set to appoint Bishop as soon as this week, and he could start serving depending on when that appointment happens, maybe later this week on an interim basis while he awaits a full Senate confirmation. The former member of Congress did confirm the news in a late-night tweet. Last week to Sean Davis, who is the Federalist CEO and co-founder, saying, Thank you, Sean. I am honored and eager to serve.
Now, that appointment, at least from what we've seen publicly, has not happened yet. He would be replacing Clifton T. Barrett, who was appointed to the office on June the 21st by Attorney General Pam Bondi. And it is important to note that former Congressman Dan Bishop has already went through the Senate to be confirmed to his post at OMB. That happened in March by a vote of 53 to 45.
His political career started as a Mecklenburg County Commissioner. He served in that role from 2005 to 2009. He then served in the North Carolina General Assembly as a member of the House from 2015 to 2017, moved over to the Senate 2017 to 2019, and won a special election in September of 2019 to represent North Carolina. Carolina's 9th congressional district in Washington, D.C. He served in that position until 2023 when the district was changed to NC 8.
He, of course, ran for Attorney General. Trying to be the first Republican Attorney General in well over a decade here in the state of North Carolina. Was unsuccessful in that bid. Democrat Jeff Jackson was successful in that election back in November of last year.
However, Dan Bishop has, of course, spent a lot of time highlighting crime and safety, went across the state, hearing from law enforcement experts and crime victims about ways to restore law and order and making communities safer. We will keep an eye on some of these details coming out of the White House this week. Once again, as Office of Management and Budget, Deputy Director Dan Bishop, formerly a member of North Carolina's congressional delegation, I should say, is set to be tapped and hold a role as the U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of North Carolina. That will cover areas like Durham, Greensboro, and Winston-Salem.
Of course, we will be keeping an eye on Washington, D.C. with the federal government shutdown. We'll have the latest coming up for you tomorrow morning. That's going to do it for a Monday edition of the Carolina Journal News Hour. We're back with you tomorrow morning, 5 to 6, right here on News Talk 1110 and 99.3 WBT.
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