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May 1, 2017 12:00 am
From Cherokee to current attack and the largest city to the smallest and from the statehouse into the schoolhouse Carolina Journal radio your weekly news magazine discussing North Carolina's most of public policy events and issues welcome to Carolina Journal radio why Michiko got during the next hour, Donna Martinez and I will explore some major issues affecting our state governor Roy Cooper wants to, and future state funding for opportunity scholarship. School vouchers. Some of his Democratic colleagues in the Gen. assembly disagree their offering all-out support for vouchers than for other forms of school choice you learn why some military veterans in the North Carolina Gen. assembly are pushing a series of bills that would benefit members of the North Carolina National Guard you hear details the state will submit soon a plan for improving its high school accountability program. Learn why the head of a Washington-based education think tank believes this North Carolina plan could lead to significant improvements in the way the state gauges high school success plus will learn why small institutional changes in North Carolina's state budget process could have significant impacts that help taxpayers. Those topics are just ahead.
First, Donna Martinez joins us with the Carolina Journal headline well they're coming back. The NCAA says basketball, football, soccer, gymnastics, and more will return to North Carolina but House Bill two has been wiped from the books.
The ACC also weighing in with the thumbs up Carolina Journal has been reporting on the many facets of this story for some time now.
Editor-in-chief Rick Henderson joins me now with the very latest Rick welcome back. Thank you. All right I'll ask you again, as I did last time everybody happy or anybody's the city sponsoring events are happy, the LGBT community remains unhappy and I think that this is going to the sort of process is going to continue this you're going to see companies that so they will not want to come into the state because of House Bill two are going to have to come up with another excuse for not coming out of the state or they're going to come into the state and expand fair to say that there was a lot of pressure being applied by some of the business community around the state to try to get those legislators to repeal house bill to everyone anticipating this, but it was not a lock that the NCAA would come back and now we also heard from the ACC right that's right.
The NCAA all the indications are the behind the scenes. There were enough assurances that the NCAA sport would would at least consider North Carolina if the legislature was going to go to the trouble of reviewing house bill to all of the collateral damage happens from getting all the interest groups reenergized and getting all the attention drawn once again to North Carolina for something that people about the people inside say probably rather not talk about so there it was fairly certain that something was going to happen at the very least the assembly. We consider North Carolina but yes, now it's coming back in the ACC announced in the middle part of March that it's football championship game would be played in Charlotte in December. Once again, so that's coming that that is coming back again and that was a fairly rapid and elsewhere after the NCAA made its and that happened just a few days ago. The is also explained in so is this over. Will we ever hear about house bill to again show that April something of March, but mid-April took place on yes were going to continue hearing about that because we do have ongoing litigation. The trump administration has said that it is not going to pursue federal lawsuit that was filed on behalf of Ace of transgender teen in Virginia based on appropriate education rules. But that said, there are private suits involved, including one with that student in Virginia so that's all's still alive.
The question is if the trump administration's Department of Education no longer considers gay and lesbian rights to be on a par with other civil rights protections than those that are the courts going to you that cases favorably as they would have had the the understanding of the part of education settled books Rick, it's been a very interesting conversation as this is all transpired focus on on both sides of the issue and ask I think you're probably more than to sidestep the issue but it led some to you really kinda scratch their heads about the role of an organization like the NCAA in trying to dictate public policy policy even had some legislators say this is really outside their charter and they really should be doing this we should do something right in that it opens up a question of the problematic nature of sports operations and nonprofits in attempting to set public policy because after all, the near the NCAA of the Atlantic Coast conference have a lot to do with stripping away the last remnants of Jim Crow when it came to things like integrate basketball teams and bring football teams and so they played very positive role there and the supporters of of the Charlotte ordinance like the house bill two said this is just the next extension in the battle for civil rights and so the if it was okay for the ACC to do that four years ago. Why is not okay for the ACC to do that now and that was the argument that they made and it's but it's an argument that one's a lot towards the artist made against abortion rights. For instance, pro or con is that do you want to have unwanted bureaucrats deciding these issues you want to have court he will have courts deciding his issues 41 of the people beside me.
There's a there's a big question about what what constitutes unalienable rights and who decides what those are and how to protect interesting because as you said some really cast this as just one more step in the fight for civil rights for a particular group of people. Other people said no it's not really about that. This is more about economic bullying.
Yes. Yes he is the argument going to fall by the wayside or what happens if we have another organization was sports related or not decide they want to take on some sort of public policy issues. Well, if that indeed becomes the method of preferred method of protesting particular public policies. There may well be backlash difficulty with this particular issue was that the law that effectively outlaw the Charlotte ordinance was done in such a hasty fashion and to defeat a deadline that some say was artificial I think was not and so because that there was no public discussion.
Very little about, even though there was a month-long lead into it and so these sorts of things going to continue. You may well see trade organizations representing different groups or different corporate groups.
For instance, opposing public policies based on social policy grounds and to the extent that that successful will see you having to do the various religious groups and have boycotted target because it has openly announced that it's that it does will parallel persons to go to the restroom of the width of the gender with which they identify they suffered big hit in sales past year and religious groups opposed or the support house bill to take credit for it, but still those sorts of things, something the marketplace as a way of working these things out if you will challenge with the group like the NCAA zip.
They are effectively monopoly and I also have tax exempt status so that's different than would say a single organization particular religious organization or social or private entity.
That's not a monopoly taking announcing a boycott or or saying don't buy products from this motion are that merchant will be different when you say if you don't fall things away that we want them to go, then we're going to pull our events from you and that's a much more catastrophic and definitive kind of a question of it. It's one thing if you have choices you have the one organization among a dozen yeses take a particular stand-in you as a consumer can choose yes I agree no I I don't agree but when it's that monopoly. It's a little bit different. Also interesting, politics.
I think to this gotta be wondering the one person I like to talk to right now. Frankly, former Gov. Pat McCrory and what he thinks about how this is all transpired at there's an argument to be made that, at least in part the reason that he was not reelected.
He signed it right there and he's come out and said that he's very glad that it's gone that he said that he's he's happy that house bill to no longer is all the books simply because it is something that became an issue that was actually a mythical sort of status that made it larger than the actual controversy at hand. And so, all people had to do a sales bill to admit what was in it Elwell of North Carolina and house bill to submit state. Therefore, we should stay away from it and he still see to this day.
You see, of cities and states limiting the travel of their employees to North Carolina because they don't think the house bill to really was repealed. There is a potential controversy. I do believe with the University of California playing football game at Duke. This year there's there's still things like that that are out there and these little brushfires you can continue for a while and questions. Of course, over what's what power do cities and counties actually have as opposed to state government assets into a very interesting discussion about the Constitution and who is allowed to do what a lot of people didn't agree didn't care that's right home rule. No home rule rule. It's very complicated but I guess these debates continue. And of course Carolina journal will be reporting on every remaining facet of this story of house bill to even talking with Rick Anderson. He of course is editor-in-chief. You can read all of his firstname.lastname@example.org follow them on Twitter at the regulator.
Thanks, and I think you stay with us much more Carolina journal radio.com and just government plays a key role in your life affecting your paycheck the way you educate your kids the way you do business. How can you tell if government is doing a good job making the right choices. Spending tax dollars wisely. Carolina journal.com tackles those questions every day. The John Locke foundation publishes Carolina journal in print each month and on the web each email@example.com you'll find exclusive investigative reports on topics. No one else is covering what else a rundown of the best new stories, editorials and opinion columns in North Carolina. John Hood's daily Journal news stories and important public firstname.lastname@example.org and the voices of the newsmakers themselves. Carolina journal radio in print on the air and on the web. You can find the information you email@example.com. Looking back, Carolina journal radio why Michiko got Gov. Roy Cooper wants to stop state funding for opportunity scholarships. They offer private school vouchers to low income families, but some of Cooper's Democratic Party colleagues disagree group of African-American state lawmakers recently spoke out in favor of vouchers and other forms of school choice. Mecklenburg County representative Rodney Moore led the discussion.
We stand here today John and voices for simple yet powerful statement. We are here to extend our support for educational options for all North Carolina families and students. We stand today will be a voice for the voiceless. Far too often families and children are left out of the education decision-making process with that all support for educational options for all North Carolina including parental school choice as a complement to our unwavering support for quality educational missions across all state, including traditional public schools, public charter schools, private schools and home schools.
Make no mistake, the bedrock of strong strong community starts with all schools.
We are here to assure that every child regenerate every child receives the best education possible, regardless of his or her ZIP Code or family income as supporters of education we stand for North Carolina's 1.5 million students enrolled in public schools, and approximately 100,000 public school teachers who serve to educate all students everyday across Allstate, we must do more for all public schools that we stay committed to do just that. Morse's support for education goes beyond traditional district schools as supporters of education we stand for North Carolina's public charter schools, especially those with the mission of providing educational programs aimed at serving socioeconomically disadvantaged students across Allstate where we see more growth with these causal public schools in the 40 counties that still don't have as supporters of education we stand for milk a lot of children with this ability, scholarships, grants will with families who shall qualify under this private school program will be provided the resources to fund educational needs that fit them as supporters of education we stand for milk a lot of opportunity scholarship program, which is providing education options to nearly 6000 low income families. This coalition understands that in North Carolina you cannot talk about education and education reform will stop talking about race and politics is all that by uniting together in support of education for all. If all quality education models that we begin to bridge the gap that is far too often hindered us black versus white Democrat versus Republican and traditional public traditional schools versus nontraditional. We have come to slide tackle too many challenges to leave a generation of children behind.
Today, together we stand for these children and we will fight for them by any means educationally representative Ed Haynes of Forsyth County explained his support for school choice issue opportunity.
I think that is what you're talking about will remove postal look at our kids the opportunity of saying we want our children to have the same opportunity that many of our parents afforded us when we were growing up in the public schools of North Carolina as I think about those opportunities. My parents had me attending schools all over the district in order to get into the right school to write public school to fit me to fit my skill set to fit what I needed to grow as a young man. We were successful doing what we have right now, especially in my district with the Salem city that has largely segregated. We have 99% free and reduced lunch schools not got a 99% black and letting that is what our elementary schools mostly looked like in my district there are couple that don't look like those 99% free and reduced lunch schools that have third grade reading proficiency rates that are in the name of the range of 11% 14% 22%, and one that I did last week that around seven or 8% say the average age of the child eight years old. I said, their third grade reading proficiency 8%. I want you to let that resonate with you for second that is 92% fail. I cannot in good conscious look at any mother or father and tell them that they should be satisfied with none of us would invest our money with a broker who had a 2% fail rate it wouldn't happen.
Sen. Erica Smith Ingram also added her voice to those supporting school choice here today to support parents having a choice in educating their children today. As a parent who did not produce cookie-cutter children despite sharing the same DNA in the same genetical coding I believe is Miles mons wrote Manuel what she there's a reason why McDonald's to set up shop right beside Hardee's across the street from Burger King down the corner from Wendy's door bell jingle yeah why those companies claim entities can set up shop right beside each other because of free market and offering choice. I believe that we should have that same choice and same free market education today as a parent whose eldest child graduated from caprine high GCP charter school in Northampton County and here today as a parent whose younger child phenomenally whale the traditional public school today as a public school educator, knowing that we cannot talk about education without being able to rate the importance of parents having choice.
Parents have an opportunity having the resources they need to provide the educational environment for their children that is sent to their success. Sen. Ben Clark of Polk County addressed popular myths about school choice for them concerning this vendor for public funds for public calls is always a good thing I can think of no greater cause educating our children often hear folks say that I don't want my public dollars going to private schools, but with a filter to understand is those public dollars are going to educate children for part of accident. So again, the neutral public funds for public calls is a great thing and I can think of nobody calls then education of our children. I believe that our toolkit of educational opportunities for our children should not be matched with unnecessary strength and must be populated with a variety of options referred to members or most of them have maybe attended public school. Private schools, home schools, charter school, but often times what we see in our society is that those of us who have or publish the company homes where we had the means we have those options more often than not, what happens in our society is that those who are challenged in terms of means of those. Those are the ones that do not have the opportunity those of the ones that do not have the choice and I believe it is incumbent upon us. Make sure that those who come from homes where the means are challenged. Also have a choice that's State Sen. Ben Clark, one of several African-American Democratic lawmakers speaking up in favor of school choice will return with more Carolina journal radio. Are you looking to make North Carolina more free the John Mott foundation is in here are three things you can do today to help us make it happen.
First, know the facts visit John Mott data work for data analysis, interviews, and more and read Carolina journal.com to learn what government is doing with your money. Second, influence the debate invest in the John lock foundation's work with a tax-deductible donation you can get it done in firstname.lastname@example.org and third make North Carolina more free by sharing the message of freedom. It's easy when you visit John Mott.org. Click on shareable's download past messages to freedom. Dear friends, print the messages and mail them, or if your savvy computer user share the message of freedom on Facebook and Twitter know the facts influence the debate and share the message three things you can do today to help us make North Carolina more free. Get started email@example.com North Carolina is changing not just day-to-day but outward to our minute to minute and 2nd to 2nd, how can you keep up with the changes, especially the ones that affect you, your family, your home, your job, make the John lock foundation and Carolina journal part of your social media diet on Facebook like the John lock foundation like Carolina. Journal follow us on Twitter at John lock in the sea and at Carolina journal news, insights and analysis you'll find nowhere else. Thanks to the experts at the John Locke foundation and thanks to the first-class investigative reporting of Carolina journal. Don't wait for the morning newspaper. Don't wait for the evening news if it's happening now it's happening here the John Locke foundation and Carolina journal. Have you covered with up to the second information like us on Facebook the John Locke foundation and Carolina journal follow us on Twitter at John Locke in the sea and at Carolina journal did you know you can now advance freedom and free markets just by shopping with Amazon it's true online shopping is now a great way to support the John lock foundation just shot using the Amazon smile program and designate the work foundation to receive a portion of your purchase amount that's right you shop and Amazon donates money to assess the John lock foundation. So here's how it works long time to smile.amazon.com Amazon smile. It's the same Amazon you know same products same prices is much better. Amazon donates .5% of the price of your eligible purchases to pass the John lock foundation to try and be sure to designate the lock foundation is a nonprofit, you want to support.
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Don't forget log on to smile.amazon.com today by something nice and help defend freedom. Support the John Locke foundation. Welcome back to Carolina journal radio why Michiko got lawmakers have filed a series of bills designed to help members of the North Carolina National Guard Democratic representative Greer Martin explained the first legislation is a bill that addresses the issue of our service members returning home as a result of experiences suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder and as a result of that, unfortunately, that can result sometimes interaction with our legal system. This bill would merely say that if you are found guilty of that when you're sentenced. The judge can choose to consider as a mitigating factor that you incurred PTSD as a result of your military service. This is patterned after law passed in the state of Oklahoma that they found be very successful.
That's one of just seven bills Martin and fellow military veterans are pushing in the state House and Senate. We also have several bills that deal with the issue of the difference in duty status between member of the reserve component that's called the federal active duty working for the president preps to deploy director Afghanistan and a member of the North Carolina National Guard who could be called the federal active duty working for the president at war, or instead called state active duty working for the governor fight forest fires, floods, etc. there are significant protections and federal law right now for folks called the federal active but they don't exist as much when you're called the state active duty. So we've got those here would help address that disparity. It would also enable the state Atty. Gen. to play a role in enforcing our service members rights oftentimes 19-year-old soldier.
Their only recourse even though they got protections of law would be to hire a lawyer. This would allow enough complaints were out there in a problem that the Atty. Gen. could get involved. We also addressing the issue of national guardsmen who are also students in our community colleges in our public university systems were called active duty to protect us from disasters or other emergencies to ensure that when they come back to class. They won't suffer for their service to our communities.
We also got a bill that would ensure that the tuition assistance money that we provide the National Guard help national guardsmen with her education tuition that can be applied to professional certification such as Microsoft certifications to enable artwork on national guardsmen to compete for jobs or 21st-century economy.
Republican Sen. Danny Earl Britt is working with Martin, I see what we can do could be great work to support the soldiers are out there that are doing the above and beyond what they signed up for whenever they originally signed up as National Guard so severally soldier serving as much time is where I duty soldiers have in the last 10 to 15 years with the current environment that we had with Iraq and Afghanistan and still being quite many of our soldiers so honored to be able to be here in Raleigh. Bill to help work on some of this important legislation I think is provide such wonderful benefit all members of National Guard you been listening to discussion about a series of bills designed to help members of North Carolina's National Guard overture with more Carolina journal radio in a moment. Are you tired of fake news. Well you won't find it here at Carolina journal. We don't make things happen and we don't presume or assign motives. There's no simpler way to put it then that were proud to say that honest, factual, rigorous journalism is the Carolina journal way I reporting team is focused on accountability in government and policymaking. No matter which political party is in power, and regardless of the person taken to task in the story, Carolina journal where the holding to the truth and to transparency. Unlike fake news lies, innuendo, questionable sourcing all meant to create controversy not inform the debate. So the next time you're confronted with fake news one onto Carolina journal.com or pick up the latest print edition you'll find compelling news reporting from a team that knows what it means to be real journalists committed to truth Carolina journal.
You can count on us for the facts that Carolina journal radio I'm okay North Carolina has a chance to overhaul its accountability system for public high school. What form should that reform take Michael Petrilli, president of the Washington DC based education think tank Thomas B.
Fordham Institute has some ideas and joins us now to discuss them.
Thanks for joining us.
Thanks for having me on Mitch so that this is something that is going to be very important for North Carolina's public school systems visited to having some sort of reform of the way that high schools are held accountable that that's right Mitch. So North Carolina has had an accountability system for decades now and there are some good things about that system. I like that it is in a to F system, meaning that schools get graded ABC DEF that's much better than what you see in some other states where that the ratings that states give schools are almost Orwellian. You can't tell if by the label.
If the school is great, nervous, terrible effect, North Carolina's recently changed that 8F we used to have the outstanding schools of excellence are schools of distinction, and he didn't know what that Mets that sounds like other states are still doing that sort. That's right that's right thankfully now about a dozen states have the 8F system and its much better so that that part is worth keeping North Carolina has to update its accountability system because there's a new federal law that went into that that came into being about a year ago, the average student success. Every student succeeds act under that law. The state still have to test students regularly and they still have to grade schools. But there's more flexibility in how they do that North Carolina right now is looking at its accountability system, trying to decide what it should look like going forward. I do hope it keeps the 8F system, but much else about that system needs to change, especially for high school and the problem is under no Child left behind so much of the focus was on getting kids to this level that we called proficiency, meaning basic proficiency in reading and math.
Well, that had this negative outcome, which was to encourage schools to pay all of their attention to just getting kids to that one level at the time was a pretty basic level and so it meant that if you were no high achieving student you are going to reach that on the test. No matter what you probably could reach that on the first day of school and so schools were not encouraged to pay much attention to those kids. Now the standards have been raised. The tests are harder than they used to be, but still those high achieving kids are going to meet that with without any problem. So it's our view that would states need to do is make it clear that every kid matters that schools need to pay attention to helping every child make progress over the course of the year. So one thing we hope North Carolina will do is to measure achievement, not just at proficient but also at the advanced level and give schools some kind of recognition or reward for getting more kids to that advanced level.
The other thing that's important is to look at how much progress kids are making over time. No high school has no control over where kids are when they come in in the ninth grade. There might be some schools were kids are reading at 1/5 or sixth grade level or doing math and fixed for the six grade level and high school. All they can control is how much progress the kids make once they are under their charge, and so it is really much more fair to look at that rate of progress over time and to look at that, the kids in a single test scores. North Carolina has a way to do that; value-added that's been in place for a long time.
I calculated by the company here in North China. Sass is quite good. The problem is, at least in the past that value-added score hasn't counted for much in so as a result, most of the focus in North Carolina still has been on getting everybody to the proficient level. Not a lot of focus on kids making progress over time were getting to that advanced level so all that to be said. This is a chance for North Carolina to step back and rethink its system and to make sure that it's aiming high enough. One less thing Mitch is that what some other states have done that North Carolina should do is also look at whether kids or had getting access to advanced placement courses and to other opportunities to earn college credit while still in high school and reward schools. When kids do indeed get that kind of college credit. We know the kids that do that are much more likely to go to college succeed in college. It's another way to indicate that high levels of achievement that excellence are something that are valued here that were getting away from the no Child left behind days of just focusing on basic skills and moving much more into getting kids college ready. That is the voice of Michael Petrilli, president of the Thomas before the Institute based in Washington DC. We talk about high school accountability measures in North Carolina. How important is this me. Some people might hear this and say well it sounds like shuffling a deck chairs around you get a grade this way instead of grading that ways are really going to make a difference if they do accountability right you will the North Carolina school officials be making a real difference for students that you know that's a good question, Mitch Miller, this is not as important is that the meat and potatoes of actually improving teaching and learning in the classroom.
Okay, but in terms of what states can do. I think it is important in terms of the signals we sent to schools about what we value and here's what else is important for schools out there that are at risk of being labeled a failing school okay this is going to make a big difference about how we measure these things under the current system. It is very likely that any school in North Carolina that serves lots of poor kids to come in the high school you know many grade levels behind the current system is going to end up labeling. Most of the schools a D or an F and that's demoralizing for the people working in those schools matter how good, how great they do number how much progress kids make because so many kids are going to reach the proficient level and state testing to look bad if you change the system so that those schools have a chance of earning an essay. Also, if if they help kids to come in far behind make a ton of progress while they're in high school and reach those higher standards and you can get rewarded for that.
I think that makes a big difference in those schools may not have a big impact on the school's out there affluent suburbs of Raleigh and Charlotte and other places in schools that are gonna probably do okay under any system but for the schools that are at risk of being labeled failing schools. This could matter a lot sense is that this also could have an impact a positive impact when we see that teaching toward the test.
If you're actually aiming toward meeting these goals and they are the right goals, then it will be better than just trying to make everyone at least average and not yet attention to the hygiene that that's exactly right. Mitch said that what we see in our schools. A lot of places is that these test scores in these accountability systems do drive teaching and learning, and in the past under no Child left behind this previous federal law. Unfortunately, we saw some schools that were teaching in a very low level way you know these together. They were having kids do a lot of fill in the blank in multiple choice and the kind of writing that none of us would want to see for own kids because they're getting kids ready for these tests. Well, you know. Now we have tougher standards we have tougher tests and now if we send the signal to schools that you've got actually get kids to this much higher level where they can write well where they can reason where they can do really tough math problems where they can think critically then that's can encourage much better kind of teaching in the classroom.
Is it difficult to make the changes that you're talking about is something that that North Carolina could put together pretty easily and frankly it's not hard. I mean, they have this great opportunity under IB because they have to make some changes because this new federal law that the state Department of Education is working on a draft planning getting input.
I suspect the legislature may get involved. It certainly has been the case in some states it it doesn't take much, and there are some states that are doing all of these things that that I've talked about, you know, at the Thomas before them Institute. We do a lot of work on the ground in Ohio. Ohio does all the things already that that I'm talking about and its system is is good. North Carolina could simply look to Ohio's and copy. Much of it in their other states are in the country that are doing these things also will certainly very strict topic. We know the one person is going to be following it very closely. As Michael Petrilli as president of the Thomas before them Institute in education think tank in Washington DC. Thanks much. We don't think you want Caroline, if you love freedom we got great news to share with you now.
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Log on today. Welcome back to Carolina Journal radio I'm Donna Martinez will North Carolina spend the money that we've all paid in taxes and fees, while that of course is the question being debated in the general assembly right now as lawmakers put together a new state operating budget for the year that starts on July 1, but legislators are also looking at ways to make changes to the actual budgeting process, all with the goal in mind putting North Carolina on sounder financial ground beyond just one budget. Joe Colletti has been looking at this writing about it. He is a senior fellow with the John Locke foundation Joe welcome Greg to be nice to talk with you so you been writing about this and you've laid out several different things that you say have bipartisan support in the legislature and really would be good for North Carolina. Let's start first with that. Your thoughts about the rainy day fund.
What is it and why is it a good thing. Rainy day fund is technically called the savings reserve account was created about 1991 and it's a place where as we talk about savings reserve or rainy day fund legislature puts money aside for when God saves money for a rainy day when things go bad in the economy and tax revenues don't come in as expected or absent. As hoped, and so North Carolina has had one. As I said since 1991 and it's never really been funded that well. The most that it had and it was about 5% general fund spending and research suggest that it should be closer to 1318% and so the legislature this year unanimously in the Senate. I think two people voted against it in the house. Gov. Cooper signed it said we need to expand this rainy day fund the savings reserve account and have the budget director decide how much should be in this fund sets up some automatic deposits to it so it really strengthens it. And so that the next time that we have a recession we should be in much better financial shape as a state, so it sounds like if only a couple people voted against this.
This is one of those examples we rarely hear about which do actually occur in the legislature were Democrats and Republicans can agree on a pretty serious principle, one that we all try to practice. We try at least in our own personal finances to have something set aside so that nothing bad happens. It doesn't kill you, basically exactly right.
So rainy day fund is one of those things but then you've also been writing about the fact that there some agreement in the legislature over session limits tell us out what that is and why you think that would be good for North Carolina but session limits.
We work people are more familiar with term limits which says you can only be in the legislature so many times and be elected and reelected session limits focus on how long the legislature meets during the year and so their two bills first one is bipartisan introduction in the Senate from Sen. Chaudhry and from Sen. Tillman that subsequent calendar day limit on the amount of time that the legislature can meet on the house side represented of dollar has introduced a bill that would create a constitutional amendment. So we would all get a chance to vote on this that says legislature has to wrap up all its business by June 30 and from research has been done on on session limits shorter sessions lead to less chance for shenanigans among legislators and so that's generally where the with the positive comes from is that there is less time for them to come in and say hello when we try this and add and add additional spending items to budgeting and after Raleigh, North Carolina, as in some other states. This is supposed to be a part-time citizen legislature right and they been doing generally a good job about.
And so the but having a formal limit has worked in other states and says that's where and why it's a good idea deadline may become an in with the deadline get the job done and go back home okay eating. Also Joe. Sometimes we focus a lot on the fact that for example there putting together a budget for the next fiscal year that starts July 1 by your saying that that folks really need to be looking further out to some forecasting.
In fact there some support for you and this is to provide five-year forecast for the entire budget for a lot of spending bills. The fiscal research division of the Gen. assembly was a full-time staff will put together five-year forecasts for an individual bill is a spending bill or a tax bill to say what will happen if we do this couple years ago. The off state budget and management, which is the governor side of the budget debate in his full-time staff started added a five-year forecast on the revenue side and on the on the spending side to take a look at what are the implications for the way that we set up spending in the way that we set up taxation and Sen. Chaudhry again as sponsor a bill that would rock require this for on both the legislative side and on the governor side. A five-year forecast for the entire budget. So really it would be saying to legislators as well as the governor's office. Then everybody you need to be looking at the long-term impact of what you are proposing for the next several years so that certainly is a good idea, and interestingly enough, Joe right now as were having this debate over the next operating budget. This idea of a five-year forecast that has become pretty interesting because we have some disagreements over the potential impact of a proposal from the Senate on tax cuts and tax reform Senate has bill out. That is called the billion-dollar middle-class tax cut and fiscal research went through an attached fiscal notes that went down one of those five-year fiscal nursery that we talked about earlier and showed how much that would reduce tax revenues coming into the state over the next five years and they call it billion-dollar tax cut because within the first two years is about billion dollars and it's about 600's $700 million each year after a legislator asked fiscal research. Take another look at that, combined with the savings reserve account for HB seven that we talked about earlier where we were. We automatically are setting aside money in the savings reserve the rainy day fund and then tips took a look at what happens with spending and using the forecast we have these programs in place and spending will seek to do all the same things the same way with more people spending will increase over time. So when fiscal research took a look at that. They said that this would lead to large deficit $600 million or more in three of the next five years we went back and took a look at it and said well the sentence actually been loves they just been pretty prudent with how they been spending money growth. This spending the last two years is only grown by 2.6% each year. So we said let's take a look at what would happen if we continue down and you run into one year, you should have a shortfall but for the next five years.
By the fifth year, you end up with instead of $600 shortfall you have an $800 million surplus so that's where the five-year forecast is useful because you to take a look at these things but it becomes really important to understand what the assumptions are that get go into those ants.
A great example of how this really isn't just technical talk core theory. He said this five-year forecast really can inform the debate decisions being made today that will impact every North Carolinian down the road for several years to come. Only been talking with Joe Colletti.
He is a senior fellow with the John Locke foundation if you're interested in finding out more about his analysis of budgeting and spending. You can find it all and John lock down or thanks very much. Thank you.
That's all the time we have for the program this week. Thank you for listening on behalf of my cohost Mitch, I'm Donna Martinez. Join us again next week for more Carolina journaling Carolina Journal radio is a program of the John one. To learn more about the John Locke foundation donations support programs like Carolina Journal radio send email to development John Locke call 1866 Jayla 166-553-4636 Carolina Journal radio nation airline is all opinions expressed on this program nearly mentioned on the show or other foundation.
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