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Carolina Journal Radio No. 857: Recording unveils national Democratic strategy in N.C. Senate race

Carolina Journal Radio / Donna Martinez and Mitch Kokai
The Truth Network Radio
October 21, 2019 8:00 am

Carolina Journal Radio No. 857: Recording unveils national Democratic strategy in N.C. Senate race

Carolina Journal Radio / Donna Martinez and Mitch Kokai

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October 21, 2019 8:00 am

Release of a secret recording has shed some light on national Democrats’ plans for winning North Carolina’s 2020 U.S. Senate race. In the recording, Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson says he was discouraged from running a grass-roots campaign for the U.S. Senate seat. Instead, Jackson says Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer wanted Jackson to spend all of his campaign time raising money to fund negative ads against Republican incumbent Thom Tillis. Rick Henderson, Carolina Journal editor-in-chief, assesses the impact of the recording for the 2020 campaign. Britain’s chaotic Brexit process now has a new leader. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has won notoriety as a larger-than-life character in British politics. Andrew Taylor, N.C. State University political science professor and a native Briton, analyzes Johnson’s potential impact on his nation’s future. As state lawmakers were complying with a court order to redraw state House and Senate election maps, they heard arguments for and against changing the mapmaking process itself. You’ll hear highlights from that debate. A Winston-Salem surgeon is moving forward with his lawsuit challenging North Carolina’s certificate-of-need restrictions on major pieces of medical equipment. As the case proceeds, the state constitution’s anti-monopoly clause should bolster the surgeon’s case. That’s the assessment from Jon Guze, John Locke Foundation director of legal studies. He explained why during a recent presentation in Winston-Salem for the group Classical Liberals in the Carolinas. A year after Wake County Schools faced the shocking news that systemwide school enrollment had increased by just 42 students, Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools reported an overall enrollment decrease for this new school year. Terry Stoops, John Locke Foundation vice president for research and director of education studies, examines the causes and potential implications of slowing enrollment in North Carolina’s two largest school systems.

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From chair to current and the largest city to the smallest and from the statehouse into the schoolhouse Carolina Journal radio your weekly news magazine discussing North Carolina's most of public policy events and issues welcome to Carolina Journal radio I Michiko during the next hour, Donna Martinez and I will explore some major issues affecting our stick. One of North Carolina's leading political commentators is Prof. Andrew Taylor at North Carolina State University. He's a native of Great Britain, and he looks across the pond to assess how controversial Prime Minister Boris Johnson is affecting the chaotic exit process has state lawmakers redraw North Carolina election maps their hearing arguments for and against changing the mapmaking process itself. You hear highlights the anti-monopoly clauses. North Carolina's Constitution could play a role in a legal fight over state healthcare restrictions. Those restrictions make it harder for some North Carolinians to get an MRI will also discuss the implications of declining enrollment numbers in North Carolina's second largest public school system whose topics are just ahead. First, Donna Martinez joins us with the Carolina Journal headline.

It is no secret that national Democrats hope to turn North Carolina blue in 2020, including the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Tom Tillis who is seeking reelection.

But now we've gotten an inside look at the national Democrat strategy to win that Senate seat and it came through leaked audio in the Democratic state legislator with firsthand knowledge Rick Henderson is following the story Rick of course is editor-in-chief of Carolina Journal, welcome back. Thank you.I will.

This is a very intriguing and it deftly's election time state senator Jeff Jackson out of the Mecklenburg area was part of a class at UNC Charlotte made some comments and now we all know what they were right.

He was speaking to a class moral challenge over political reporter, longtime legislative reporter was teaching at UNC Charlotte and the class base with Jeff Jackson was bought brought in to talk about the political process and the like and words of one of the students in the class apparently recorded the lecture and leaked information from the lecture.

The audio part of the recording which he basically said that Jeff Jackson's as I was recruited by the national Democratic Party to potentially be a candidate to run against Tom Tillis in 2020, and Chuck Schumer who was the lead Democrat in the Senate having upset at the fundraising was telling me how I was going to write my campaign and that's where it gets really really interesting because apparently I'm Jeff Jackson went up to DC and said to Sen. Schumer look on the ground campaign a minute talk to constituents. I'm going to do town halls and the retort. According to Jackson from Sen. Schumer was fascinating. I said no I don't think so. I put you as a Jeff expert in a windowless basement to be on the phone all the time raising money and 80% of your time will be spent raising money on the phone to take that money and use it to run negative ads against Tom Tillis. Now that's not what Jackson want to do it all.

You said he wanted to go out. He wanted to be with constituents you want to raise issues he wanted to pitch credit message run North Carolina because people may not be familiar with him because he is a state senator from Mecklenburg County and so his idea was to the way what Dan Forrest did during his two runs for lieutenant governor that is going around the state so that everybody knows who is but Schumer said no I don't think so have you down here you are beating the bushes like shaking down people for campaign contributions that we can then convert into television ads, radio ads and mailers things like that with tech Tillis so at that point. Apparently Jackson says, well, this is my kind of thing I'm not to do this, but then in the meantime, other Democrats in North Carolina have stepped forward to seek the nomination.

It looks like Cal Cunningham is the person who's getting some sort of a big support. Looks like Cal Cunningham's guy said okay. Also, he will has gotten the endorsement of all of the of the major national mainstream Democratic organizations. He also is someone who has gotten some some negative feedback from some of his Democratic rivals were, say, wait a minute, this guy served a term in the legislature. He's been a perennial candidate non-winning candidate number of races including some statewide races. Also, he's the guy that she is put up there because he's going to do whatever you say Washington Democrats and not represent North Carolina, necessarily, and so Sen. Smith County is been particularly vocal about that, because of course Democrat parties is very aware of issues such as gender and racial diversity in African-American woman running for Senate seats against a white male and also the Democrats choices yet another white male and so that's caused a lot of tension in fact that Sen. Smith was so unhappy with the situation that she actually commented on the record to national review, which is the publication to which this audio was leaked apparently by student who was in a class right right so she's not happy about it all and I think I don't know how unhappy state Democrats are with this whole situation will be tonsils more than anything else, but it does. It was a fascinating peek behind the curtain as how national campaigns are how national your campaigns right here in front of this. A similar sort of storyline with the redistricting lawsuit that the Democratic group led by former Atty. Gen. Eric Holder is as filed in North Carolina just challenge the congressional districts. Again, this is people coming in from out of state telling local Democrats what to do representative, Robert Reeves is someone who has resisted this but you see this again at the post really say this is how you run your campaign.

This will do what I call the shots you just you smile and be nice and they will tell you how to run your operation with anything Rick.

It certainly confirms that the North Carolina Senate seat that debt. Tom Tillis holds right now is critical to Democrats. They want really really badly. How important is it to what happens in 2020 with the presidential election in everything.

The will be going on. It's really important because there are a handful Senate seats across the country in which you have incumbent who's running for reelection, who is considered to be vulnerable right now.

The till situation is particularly interesting because he's never really had a highly positive net approval rating. Throughout his tenure in the Senate.

Yes, other cases such as Arizona with Martha but Sally, like where she someone who was appointed to take a seat and so she's actually running for the first time in the 2020 race that with the Tillis situation. You have someone who was selected in a very contested campaign who came out of the storm came up and down the stretch and then took over from Kay Hagan at the very last minute when he ran that race and now he is considered to be vulnerable because Republicans think is going to be again a very tight race, both nationally and in North Carolina and his approval numbers have never been as high as an incumbent senator would like Rick should people who are listening to us right now be turned off by this audio and what the national Democratic strategy is a really is this just the way it works and you usually just don't hear about it. That's I think that's basically blessed to take away from it is you think I should be upset about the fact that this is how these operations work that the candidates themselves are not seen as autonomous individuals who were actually working for their constituents were there to simply seen as pawns of a national machine and so that's something people should be upset about the fact that we did get this actual peek behind the curtain and that we saw how all how it happened and we saw you a member of the Carolina Gen. assembly who was being openly recruited run for the seat cite no thanks I don't want to do that. That's much too. I think sooner, Jackson's credit that he had that he did that but I think it is something that both should upset people at that.

The fact that that's what the expectation is for candidates running on the national scene, but also it should show a people that will you let's all goes well, it does seem that that's how it goes in the appeal of negative advertising and that's why we see them all the time even though a lot of times candidates and parties will say no were not to do that were just going to try to showcase the differences in what time our candidate believes versus our opposition, but gets down to it. People respond to these negative messages.

Well that they do they respond to basically discussions of the issues discussions of positions in the usual discussions on positions are that other person's positional issue. XYZ is awful as he is a bad guy right and of course the candidates themselves. As long as these ads are not run through their campaign fund. Candidates have no control over that message so it's not as if you need to do analysis commercial.

You could say I don't agree with the message but you can't do anything about it because if you attempted to you would be violating the law yourself. It is a fascinating story involving North Carolina making that national publication national review Rick Henderson as editor-in-chief of Carolina Journal. Thanks very much for joining same with this much more Carolina journal radio to come tired of fake names tired of reporters with political axes to grind. What you need to be reading Carolina Journal honest, uncompromising, old-school journalism, you expect and you need even better, the monthly Carolina Journal is free to subscribers sign up Carolina journal.com you'll receive Carolina Journal newspaper in your mailbox each month. Investigations into government spending revelations about boondoggles who the powerful leaders are and what they're doing in your name and with your money. We shine a light on it all with the stories and angles.

Other outlets barely cover but there's a bonus print newspapers published monthly daily news site gives you the latest news each and every day lot on the Carolina journal.com once, twice, even three times a day won't be disappointed. It's fresh news if you'd like a heads up on the daily news sign up for daily email do that Carolina journal.com Carolina journal rigorous unrelenting old-school journalism. We hold government accountable for you. Welcome back Carolina journal radio I Michiko guy.

He's brash, he's loud he has a populist streak. He is a wild head of hair, and he's the most important political figure in his country. Donald Trump though. I'm talking about Boris Johnson of Great Britain, joining Estelle with some insights about Johnson is Prof. Andrew Taylor, political scientist at North Carolina State University. Welcome back to the program. Thanks Mitch before we get into Boris Johnson. We should point out that what happens in the politics of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is especially important to you, not just as a political scientist, but this is all just the sperm from reaching me and still keep up with British politics quite a lot like to read about it right about it talk about it and follow pretty closely and you were recently in Britain and had a firsthand look at how things were going there for people talking about politically yeah so I was to study would be to work a little bit of vacationing same family viewing everybody so I'm just completely dominates all kinds of conversation about things political people don't like talking about it because there to be honest with you today with it because it's just dominated public discourse, but when you nudge them and push them to talk about politics will talk about that, even more so than the sort of tour conservative leadership price that you were alluding to in the now. The new prime minister, Boris Johnson leadership race been going on radio some nonsense from apprentice trees. My situation step down but even even without going which you would think would interest people.

It's been bricks of brick shipwrecks and the two are tied together.

Boris Johnson is prime minister, largely because of what's happened with Briggs yes so Johnson is long sort of back story about he is sort of recent propulsion to the top of the tree so to speak is been based upon his very loud and strong support all the leave campaign during the referendum in 2016. Susan, one of the most prominent conservatives who was saying we need to get out and that of course happened.

The vote was to leave in June 2016. Johnson was then appointed as Foreign Secretary, actually by Teresa my who came in as prime minister. Off to the referendum, but he had the falling out with said she was going nowhere with effort to get in a negotiated departure from the EU with this deal that she rapid that she got with European Union and then of course couldn't get through the House of Commons tried three times. She felt that led to a resignation.

Johnson very popular with the conservative party grassroots has now become the leader of the conservative party and since conservative parties governing party at the moment, be in a coalition in British Parliament.

He's promised we've heard him described by some people as sort of a British Trump and not just because of the crazy hair and the other things about the populist streak is that a fair characterization or is he a very different sort of fellow.

I think it's half and half.

I like anything you know it's not. He's not a perfect facsimile, but there are some complete commonalities, not just the appearances you said, but the sort of populist streak is sort of reputation as a disruptor. These are things that he has in common Trump in terms of sort of policy, nothingness is more to do with with with a British conservative party is compared to the US Republican Party. He's much more social emotional SKUs much more liberal and social policy than Trump that really anybody in the sort of leadership of the Republican Party is there are some significant differences but you mentioned the commonalities and that there is well and this sort of bricks.

It populism took place at the same time, of course, the Trump was being nominated by the Republican Party and them can present studies we are chatting with Prof. Andrew Taylor of NC State University. Sticking with the theme of Boris Johnson what and what he believes you mentioned the more socially liberal that you would expect among a Republican. How about any terms of taxes, trade economics, what is he say very much would be as a conventional Republican in in 2019. And you so one of the things that sort of propels this idea of bricks is that the the EU. Not only is he you sort of controlling its member countries from Brussels so this is argument about sovereignty and democracy, but it just piles on regulation off the regulation. It spends money frivolously. It doesn't tax, but it causes member nations to have to hike up their revenues in order to be out of order. The subsidies and so one of the major reasons are getting out of the European Union is so that Britain can be a kind of low tax, low regulation silver in autonomous entity and you know that I think it's those kinds of issues that appear to make Johnson appealing to many American conservatives and Republicans cc himself as a sort of a church Chilean for you is like to do that I and and in fact some of the sort of wackiness and craziness and and some of the strange things related to his personal life, which is been pretty tumultuous Iran London freight is right, which is pretty considerably on those not helping Bill de Blasio very much in the Democratic nomination contest at the moment is being mayor of the country's largest city for now in his second term, but it certainly is an important part of a politician's resume. Something like that and and and he was an MP as well on the cabinet.

Mr. minister said is much more substance political substance Johnson University thought of is is very small, but there's much more to him than I has real political experience as well from your vantage point. How will someone like Boris Johnson tackle this exit issue which is so important right now will you know all you see is opponents are saying oh my gosh he's driving us off the cliff is clearly going to be a no deal bricks. It is the economy is going to go into deep recession it's going to be a complete disaster. But one of the things that people think that Johnson might might help Johnson and the situation even though he has said, you know I'm I'm kinda willing to live with no deal bricks is his inconsistency and his unpredictability. This is something this kind of trump you as well that he likes to make deals in ways that seem inconsistent with positions he's taken in the past, all with relationships that he has with people help you make deals with with suppose it eviscerates. And so he might bring that to these bricks and negotiations with European Union and perhaps be able to kind of pull out a Hail Mary pause and get some kind of great deal from Europe for the for the UK while the UK gets out of European Union. That's what some people think may happen.

There is something to his unpredictability that gives some people hope the who want to get out but want to get out with the deal that he might be output off my guess is whatever happens, Boris Johnson is probably going to be the most interesting prime minister that Britain is heading years. Oh yes, it's hard it with all due respect from his demise. How to be less colorful than she was. She was known as the writable and he is certainly different in that way for federal 004 was as these events unfold.

We know the one person who will be watching very closely is our guest Prof. Andrew Taylor at NC State University. Thanks so much for joining the lab on Carolina journal radio just a moment. If you have freedom we got great news to share with you now. You can find the latest news, views, and research from conservative groups across North Carolina all in one place North Carolina conservative.com it's one stop shopping.

North Carolina's freedom movement and North Carolina conservative.com. You'll find links to John my foundation blogs on the days news Carolina journal.com reporting and quick takes Carolina journal radio interviews TV interviews featuring CJ reporters and let foundation analysts, opinion pieces and reports on higher education. James Dean Martin, Center for academic renewal, commentary and polling data from the scimitar's Institute and news and views from the North Carolina family policy Council. That's right, all in one place North Carolina conservative.com that's North Carolina spelled out conservative.com North Carolina conservative.com. Try it today. North Carolina is changing not just day-to-day but outward to our minute to minute and 2nd to 2nd, how can you keep up with the changes, especially the ones that affect you, your family, your home, your job, make the John Locke foundation and Carolina journal part of your social media diet on Facebook like the John Locke foundation like Carolina. Journal follow us on Twitter at John Locke in the sea and at Carolina journal news, insights and analysis you'll find nowhere else.

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So now not only will you enjoy what you buy. You also support freedom. Don't forget to smile.amazon.com today, something nice and help defend freedom, help support the John lock foundation will go back Carolina journal radio why Michiko got his North Carolina lawmakers dealt with a court order to redraw their election maps.

They also heard arguments for and against changing the map drawing process Thomas Lopez of democracy North Carolina once a new process.

The openness of this process is in fact a marked improvement from what we've seen before. That doesn't mean the substance of what is produced is where we need to be what we've seen our baseline maps that are being used for purpose for which they were not meant to be used. Incumbency prioritize over other priorities, including compactness and also just the fact that I think is one of the speakers raised earlier we have a process it's really difficult to understand. No one appreciate that yacht had a short amount of time to act on this site that we seen in miniature. Over the last week and 1/2 or so is one of the best arguments for process us that is fundamentally different than what we have now independent redistricting redistricting doesn't involve lawmakers walking up the computers and skewing the lines something exists not only in places like California, but in neighboring Arizona where United States Supreme Court case upheld in the redistricting commission only four years ago in 2015 insiders, I would urge all the legislators here to embrace a conversation about redistricting after were done with this work with the maps on the other side J Delancey of the voter integrity project urge Republican legislative leaders not to fall for arguments favoring an independent redistricting commission. We like selections.

I will congratulate you every one of you in this room work curtails all fear subject to judicial gerrymandering because they like legislature doing their job and I congratulate you on getting it done and transparent way and working so hard last week to do so. I wanted to just tell you that I know reading the governor's tweets.

We know where his head and we know what this agenda. For these people is they want something called a nonpartisan commission to take over the process so I don't believe in unicorns funneling the Easter Bunny. I don't believe in nonpartisan thing I think we seen that judges seen that in California where the nonpartisan commission got manipulated through things like all jobs that may be release lost. If you can go a certain way.

These disinterested commissioners were not accountable. They are under great pressure and they're not accountable to public.

Whatever you do please find want to have nonpartisan rules great as long as everyone falls will go to court to try and change you want something but work on the same rules, like you did in 2010. The same rules where one majority of the first time in 100 years, so maybe instead of changing the rules, which is follow the rules that was J Delancey of the voter integrity project. Both he and Thomas Lopez spoke of recent public hearing related to North Carolina's legislative redistricting will return with more Carolina journal radio where doubling down on freedom at Carolina journal radio were proud to bring you stories that impact your life and your wallet. And now get twice as much freedom when you also listen to our podcast headlock available on iTunes and@johnlocke.org/podcast Locke is a little bit different. It's a no holds barred discussion that challenges soft headed ideas from the left and the right, like Carolina journal radio headlock is smart and timely with headlock you'll hear more about the culture wars get some more humor as well.

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Welcome back Carolina journal radio why Michiko got a particularly old piece of the North Carolina Constitution could prove helpful as reformers fight against overly burdensome occupational licensing the group.

Classical liberals in the Carolinas heard that message recently from John goos say he's director of legal studies at the John Locke foundation. Jos is talking about.

Article 1, section 34 of the state Constitution, also known as the anti-monopoly clause. This was originally a tradition for the specific purpose of preventing the state from granting special privilege trade privileges to favor groups that are also going to argue that properly construed, could still serve for that purpose today is Lisa's anti-monopoly provisions have been part of the law for hundreds of years. Such a famous English legal scholar server clerk is the man because he was the primary source of information about English law, English legal history for all the people in the colonies at the time they didn't disregard Coco's authority.

He was a hero to the colonies because they saw him, he is more even more than John Locke. I would say he inspired them to make them think they have rights in the inspired defend those rights. So let's look at what the colonists would've learned from reading Cook one thing they will learn is what the word monopoly meant and legal context.

At the time, and what it meant was, not just any cut a monopoly but a monopoly specifically created by the sovereign would've learned was that the title monopoly was illegal under both common law and under statutory law, they would've learned about the former by reading Cook's report of a famous case Dorset, which was published in title the case of monopolies. According to the report, the plaintiff was a group of the chamber. Queen Elizabeth had purchased a royal patent granted him an exclusive right to manufacture report and self playing cards to choose a habitat survey in terms of violating a monopoly sought damages for loss of income after hearing for both sides. The court of King's bench held the Queens grant to Darcy was void because was a monopoly and therefore against common-law rose says that court ruling offered more helpful details. In addition, just simply to clear the was void. The court also provided an explanation for why state granted monopolies were against common-law I was really there analysis to talk about the course without probably be improved upon. Today in today's lives we would say that what the court found was that despite what the holders of such monopolies under the claim government confirmed monopolies do not benefit society as a whole about themselves as competitors and violate the rights and they force consumers to pay higher prices for goods and services, but that ruling, and the debate over monopolies. Rose turns to the next piece of English legal history was the success of James I ignored completely and in response Coco is but a member of Parliament and Chairman of the community grievances. No successful campaign to impose a statutory remedy in the form of the statute of monopolies which declared monopolies altogether. Contrary to the laws of this realm describe the statute. His confidence in his institutes of the laws of the multivolume treatise that was widely read in the car colonies and was really until Blackstone was published around the time of the revolution. The primary source of law. The fight against monopolies doesn't end there, either. Goos a says American colonists also had to deal with government granted monopolies were more morbid outlays on international trade of the colonial trade.

There were black markets.

In response to contract out almost black markets and we just have escalation of hostilities, which culminated in this event. The Boston tea party in 1773 and that would have been fresh in the minds of the provincial Congress when they were convenient to draw your thoughts Constitution, 1776. Given this intellectual, political context, I don't think it could be much doubt that the members of the progress our government about this specifically in mind when they drew up the Constitution by declaring that such an office ought not to be allowed to secure for themselves and their prosperity. The same right to Darcy, the statute of monopolies in the glorious Revolution that secures with her cousins but mainly the writer's living binder is lawful occupation beyond the history lesson. Goos is looking at the impact of the anti-monopoly clause today still need today would imagine 1776. Is it still for big government granted monopolies. Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is yes surprising.

It's only because the word monopoly has changed the meaning of the word about this change quite a bit since colonial times and it's changed because of the rise of the great trust of the late 19th century, perhaps by design are perhaps intentionally word monopoly was expanded at that time to include not just state granted about please but also large companies that had five acquiring the competitors drive them out of business succeeded in securing a dock coming to dominate some markets.

What is the impact of the changing definition of monopoly.

Given the changes that you could argue that nowadays they had about, because it applied to these kinds of new large corporations that dominate the market. But what you couldn't argue with that. It should no longer apply to state granted monopolies and one of the reasons you can't say that is because every dictionary every dictionary look at a lot of been published since the late 19 century include some version of this language, they always still include is one of the is one of the standard definitions of monopoly monopoly granted by the sovereign so would be strange indeed for court to conclude that the voters ratified as more recent constitutions intended to narrow the scope of the animal out because in a way that excluded both conventional meaning of the word monopoly and frustrated. The purpose for which the cause was originally adopted in effect report is done about goos Ace is a North Carolina Ct. actually offered a very good ruling in the first half of the 20th century. It dealt with the law that was passed in 1937 under which it was a crime to engage in the business of dry-cleaning dying and/or pressing without first having secured a license or certificate 1939 an unlicensed striker Terrace a lot of writing 40 in a forceful opinion by Justice Seawell Aspen court struck down Seawell specifically affirms the original understanding of the monopoly clause insisted that the that understanding was still valid and on that basis. Instruct the lockdown usually recaps the history going back more than 400 years 1603 Highest Ct. held that monopolies are against the common law, 16, 24, Parliament enacted a statute of monopolies which stated that monopolies altogether.

Contrary to the laws of this realm. In 1776 N.'s first constitution to clear that monopolies are about to be allowed and in 1971 N. Carolinians ratified the current situation which declares even more effective. Monopolies shall not be allowed. None of that is just state governments from grabbing legal monopolies.

While these are taken many forms. The vast majority have taken the form of occupational licensing laws proliferated at a rate that would've made the tutor Stuart monarchs blush final thoughts from a famous legal scholar, the last word and he got it exactly right. The fight against government granted monopolies will never read the potential rewards are to date and special interest groups and legislators will never stop trying to divide those rewards between those who wish to exercise the right to earn a living will just have to keep fighting, but I hope I convince you that one of the weapons they can use in that fight is authorized at about that's John goos, a director of legal studies at the John Locke foundation. He's discussing the North Carolina Constitution's anti-monopoly clause as they deliver these remarks recently in Winston-Salem to the group.

Classical liberals in the Carolinas will return with North Carolina journal radio in about really influence you either have it or you don't and at the germline foundation we have it, you'll find our guiding principles in many of the freedom forward reforms in the past decade here in North Carolina. So while others talk or complain or name call.

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Welcome back to Carolina journal radio and Donna Martinez Carolina no secret is one of the fastest-growing state in our country thanks to our beautiful natural wonders. Worse, our thriving economy and is more and more families moving to the state. One might presume that there will be pressure on public schools to be ready for this influx of new kids, but new school enrollment date is now casting doubt on that very premise. Dr. Terry stoops is the vice president for research. Also, the director of education studies for the John Mark foundation. He's been writing about these enrollment trends that John lock.org Terry look back to the shop.

Thank you. Give us the update on enrollment in the two largest public school systems in the state waken Mecklenburg will Mecklenburg release their 20 day numbers and it indicated that, compared to last year they were down around 465 kids and that's up for the size of the system that has about 147,000 kids on a percentage basis is not a whole lot but it's notable because this is a system that's been adding a significant number of students over the last few years I looked at the trends between 22,005 and 2015 and the district at about 12/27,000 kids to its role. So this is a real reversal here in Charlotte Mecklenburg to see a drop of this size of last year in Charlotte Mecklenburg. The enrollment was about the same I think they lost like seven kids or something to that effect. So it wasn't a significant decline last year but this year it indicates that there will be a significant decline. I should mention that 20 day numbers can be misleading in these first few weeks of school.

Parents are moving in and out of schools there, moving to charter schools, private schools inside the home school is a lot of movement so were not going to hear the last of it. Just because we have the 20 day numbers in Charlotte Mecklenburg will probably hear the most about it when we get those 40 day numbers which are key numbers for the state to determine fund. Mecklenburg is the second largest public school system in the state.

Wake County is the largest and that you've written a number of pieces about what's happening in the wake system. Tell us about that.

Well, last year. Wake County lost a 42 kids. They were down 42 compared to the year before. We don't have a 20 day numbers for wake because they simply haven't release them.

They don't have to release them. This was something that Charlotte Mecklenburg does wake doesn't. So were waiting to see what the 40 day numbers look like in wake County. We suspect that there's going to be a slight decline in wake County, which again is also very surprising because like Charlotte Mecklenburg. It has been a district that has seen immense growth that one little catch to all this is that at the beginning of the school year, there was a report to the Durham Herald sounded indicated that the term County schools had a increase of kids this year and unexpected increase of kids this year compared to the year before, so I don't know what that means for wake County. I don't know if terms, what they're experiencing. There is going to mean the same for wake County, whether wake County is going to have a different experience in Germany.

Durham was caught off guard. With this increase in even Durham County officials were quite sure why there were more students than anticipated silly that Charlotte Mecklenburg with these 20 day numbers that they been down now for two years.

That's kind of the trend were seeing there, knowing it could change then in Durham County were seeing a bit of an uptick in wake County that 42 was at 42 additional students or did they lose 42 in those numbers.

They lost 42 so that was quite a shock. I think everyone considering that the wake County school demographers predicted that there would be hundreds if not thousands of additional students attending the schools that year so that was a real surprise when those numbers came out were reported on by the news and Observer idea what is factoring into this is a trend. Are we seeing it in other places in the state.

Is it just happenstance, forcing a combination of factors that are playing a role here are declining birth rates are playing a role. We know that for some time there were those who are predicting that there will be a decrease in overall public school enrollment across the nation and that we would start seeing that trickle into North Carolina now were we. We were able to insulate ourselves from that because we have general population growth in the states.

Many other states have been losing students for very long time. So now it's just catching up to North Carolina but birthrates are having a factor, even though we have an increased population in our urban centers. A lot of that increase is not families. It states either retirees of those without children. So that's playing a robust school choice, without a doubt is also playing a role tell us more about that because we know that this state is one of the leaders in school choice.

We know that we have a absently booming homeschool movement as well as people opting for virtual charters that brick-and-mortar charters at private schools etc. so what does that. What does that play into the said this whole number scenario well to giving examples.

Wake County last year which the district lost 42 kids charter schools gained around 1500 so we do see parents exercising choice. Wake County. Of course, has a tremendous homeschool population, the largest in the state largest private school population. So were seeing parents more often than not starting to opt for these choices that are provided them and the choices are more ample than ever.

I mean if you look at wake County this year.

They have 24 charter schools in Mecklenburg County. They have 31 charter schools, and that doesn't include the fact that there are students in those counties had a chance to attend charter schools outside of the county which you can do with charters.

You don't have to be in the county to attend a charter school in that county. So we have students that are hopping the border to attend charter schools homeschooling is as popular than ever, North Carolina with around 100 and and 45,000 homeschool students across the states and then we have private schools which are growing as fast, but I think due in part to the opportunity scholarship. The vouchers that are available to children and their families and the special needs savings account that also they have available.

Were going to see us a continued uptick in the number private school students.

Due to those programs. What is it that parents and kids are finding in these other options that they're not finding any traditional public school classroom.

While it varies by the family and and this is the important point is that no two families choose an alternative based on the same criteria. Sometimes I know that parents in wake County builds kind of daunting to have their kid and in a system that has 160,000 children there are school size issues.

There are school safety issues academic rigor plays a role. Sometimes the values of the family are not consistent with the values of the school system we solve recently that it Heritage high school in wake County. There was a questionnaire given out to students that many parents thought was inappropriate. It's those sorts of things that parents look at the kind of things are being offered at their school and prompts them to consider alternatives, and we should as much as possible, provide those alternatives for parents based on whatever criteria they use select their school.

We been talking with Dr. Terry stoops. He is the vice president for research. Also, the director of education studies for the John Locke foundation talking about.

What are some numbers here about enrollment in at least two or three of the major public school systems in North Carolina that are giving people pause you can read all of Terry's work@johnlocke.org.com. Thank you all the time we have for the program this week.

Thank you for listening on behalf of my cohost Mitch Martinez help you join us again next week for another edition of the Carolina Journal radio Carolina Journal radio is a program of the job foundation to learn more about the John Locke foundation donations that support programs like Carolina sending email development John Locke done.

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