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The Starlink Star Shield was taken down.
Now it's back. The president and Zelensky going at it.
Now they seem to be steadying the waters, and they're back in Russia trying to see if Vladimir Putin's going to budge. Where do you think this is heading? Thanks so much for having me on, Brian. And your interview with Zelensky, I think, really captured that change in tone, where the Ukrainians are, I think, determined to have their discussions in private with the administration and not litigate this publicly. And I think that's a wise move and an effective strategy.
On the question of where this is going next, there was a discussion today, as you mentioned, between the president's friend and envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin. And at that meeting, they talked about having a three-way conversation: U.S., Ukraine, and Russia, presumably in the next few weeks in the Middle East. That's going to be followed by talks that the White House is trying to arrange at the president's level with both Putin and Xi Jinping during the president's trip in November to China for a multilateral summit. And then, my sense of why all of this is happening right now is the president is looking. Forward to hosting the G20 leaders at his golf resort in Doral, Miami, Florida, in mid-December.
And so I think what we're seeing is this big push by the administration to try to get some kind of big announcement in time for that meeting. The Russians have not, at this point, confirmed that Putin is coming, but I think that's the play. A lot of people are upset that Putin's coming. The president's objective is—you know—he doesn't care about a lot of stuff. If the the objective is to end the war, so if you're—that's his objective.
But a lot of politicians would not be taking that risk and bringing him into the G seven or the the G two or the G twenty or anything like that. How do you feel about that risk? Yeah.
So the way this war is going to end, if it's possible, and I think there's really big questions about whether it's even possible to end the war. But let's set that aside for a second. Is going to be when the United States sits down and talks to the Russians, ideally with the Ukrainians by our side, because there should not be discussions about Ukraine that are cut over their heads. Right? We don't want to see a repeat of Yalta at the end of World.
War Two, that would be a really huge stain on the president's legacy, which you know is a really important thing to avoid. You mean when we got all of Eastern Europe sold out to the Soviet Union and Stalin? Yeah.
So this administration should not be party to anything that looks like you know a backroom deal that sells Ukraine down the river. And I think the president has seen with the response from Republicans and others in the last ten days that you know he's got to avoid any perception that he's making nice. With Putin and putting pressure on Ukraine, unfortunately, all the signs over the past roughly 11 days, the president talked to Putin. If you remember, on Friday, October 9th, all signs point so far to the president putting the squeeze on Ukraine as a way of trying to kind of manhandle them into this deal by mid-December. And so, just to walk you through what the administration seems to have been doing, and there's a.
A bit of a smokescreen where the administration doesn't own up to all of this, but you know clearly some big things have happened. On October ninth, the president's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff made a veiled threat to the Ukrainians about cutting off intelligence support, which is absolutely critical for Ukraine's ability to to be successful on the battlefield. Then over the weekend, they talked about curtailing shipments of weapons paid for by the Europeans. That Ukraine needs, including missile interceptors, and we've seen confirmation of that in the last 24 hours. That there is a piece of paper sitting on Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's desk to authorize the transfer of missile interceptors.
And then on October 14th, a week ago, Tuesday, the Ukrainians experienced big disruptions to satellite communications that are controlled by SpaceX and the Pentagon.
So there is a pressure campaign underway. I think it's a really bad look for this administration, and I think there's a way out. I think there's a way to save face here, and the administration just needs to kind of get there in the coming days, which I hope they'll do. Right, and you know, as people told me, and Rebecca Heinrichs just got back from the region. I just heard it from somebody else.
Is that if you think Zelensky's dug in, you haven't met the Ukrainian people as much of a pounding as they've taken. They, if Zelensky gave in, he would get get he'd get ignored. Parliament would never okay any agreement. The people of Ukraine don't trust the Russians. They know that they've been victimized by the Russians, and they don't want to be invaded again.
So it's got to end the right way. And they're beginning to make gains on the battlefield from the from their ingenuity and their innovation. Absolutely, Brian, and I think that's where I think the administration's sort of I think got a needs a reload of its its assessment. President in recent days keeps talking as if Ukraine's military defeat on the battlefield is inevitable. It's not.
It's not right. Russia has totally stalled out on the battlefield. The area where they have an advantage is clearly due to the global shortage of missile interceptors, which is not a problem that's going to be fixed anytime soon. There just is a global. Shortage that affects everybody—the United States, our allies in the Middle East, and Ukraine.
Ukraine's big cities are going to be vulnerable to ongoing Russian attacks this winter, and so the real problem this administration faces is the prospect of a humanitarian catastrophe that's going to look like the the experience at the Kabul airport, where you'll have big cities emptying out, and possibly hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people on the move headed to Europe. Are headed into the Ukrainian countryside. I don't think this president wants responsibility for that. What he should be looking for right now is some form of a de-escalation that prevents a Russian blitz against against Ukraine's big cities this winter. And I think there is a deal that two Republican senators put on the table, which Zelensky accepted last Friday.
Senators Wicker and Kramer were both in. And they essentially got agreement from Zelensky to stop hitting Russia's refineries, which is obviously something President Trump cares a lot about, in exchange for help with hitting the missile launchers that Russia is using to target Ukrainian cities. That's the kind of deal and face-saving arrangement that this president could push forward, which would be good for both his image as well as sort of preventing a big humanitarian catastrophe on his watch. Andrew S Weiss is with the Carnegie Endowment, and for people not watching, we are streaming the interview. But how does this relate to Iran, in your view?
Because you know, almost immediately, Lavrov had a meeting with Iranian officials. And the president says they're not really doing much with Iran, and Iran goes, "No, they are doing a lot with us." And the Russians go, "Yeah, we look at." And one unnamed official said, "We always look at America as the enemy." So if the president said, "Look, I got all your satellites. I know exactly what you did. The reason why you're able to hit a building in Saudi Arabia where the CIA offices were is because you knew it and that you told the Iranians." So knock it off. You know, if there's one of those deals that comes out years later.
So help us in our objective. That would be typical of country to country we don't know about, but they're doubling down and saying we're we're helping Iran.
Well, I mean, the strategy the president has embraced is let's not trash talk the Russians and let's kind of cajole them along toward ending the war. And I think the strategy with Iran and Russia's role in the war it fits that playbook where the president tries to minimize the bad stuff the Russians are doing. The stuff the Russians are doing is terrible. It's it's it's leading to the deaths of American service members. The United States needs to.
Be very firm and opposing, and calling that out. At the same time, you know the Russians. Are focused on one thing and one thing only, which is prevailing in Ukraine. That's where the real action is. That's what they really care about.
And the challenge in front of this administration, you know, remains: Can you do anything that gets Putin to stop? I don't think a peace deal, some sort of comprehensive thing that looks like the Camp David Accords, is realistic. The question is: Can we help Ukraine hold on long enough that Putin eventually sees both that this? This war is futile, and as we've seen on the battlefield this year, Russia has made you know the gains Russia's made on the battlefield are the equivalent of ten Manhattan Islands. This is nothing in the big scheme of things.
Russia claims territory in Ukraine that it doesn't control, and it would take them another ten years at that pace to regain the territory that they they think that they that they own in Ukraine. It's it's not realistic. It's not going to happen over the next ten years, and so for. This administration to kind of assume the war is already lost. Really, I think the question is: Can you flip it on Putin and say your war is lost, not Ukraine is losing, but rather Russia will not get what it wants, and it's going to have to live with a badly bruised but heavily armed Ukraine that's never going to let this happen again.
And that's why I'm very pleased to see that the administration once again is talking about security guarantees for Ukraine and trying to provide the reassurance. To them that we're not going to stand by and let a genocidal war happen again. How can we help make stronger communities happen?
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Chase dot com slash impact. How many years have we spent listening to politicians in Washington argue about how to make health care insurance more affordable? Obamacare was supposed to fix it. Then we needed bigger government subsidies to make Obamacare affordable. Those subsidies expired, and guess what?
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That's one eight eight eight. We share or visit we share health dot org and take a look for yourself. Here's what President Zelensky told me today. Cut two. Most important to think about the future, security future, prosperity future for our country.
Security guarantees our army, but not only our partners. Of course, first of all, United States and Europe. We have to freeze, and I think this is real way to end this war. We call this ceasefire or stop killing, like President Trump called it, freeze and stop. And of course, this is minimum what we need from Russia today.
Then. Of course, we will go to President and to Europeans, and we'll ask security guarantees.
So he said he would for he would accept freezing on the lines, even though he lost 25 of his country illegally. He would accept that.
Now the the comeback was they want the Donbas, and that's a non-starter. But they said, would you accept half of Donetsk? This is what some of the back and forth.
So Andrew, you tell me what you think.
So this administration has made, I think, a consistent misdiagnosis, which is that they believe this is a war about territory. And as the president and Steve Witkoff all like to say, they're real estate guys, so they think that that's what this is. And if it's a matter of drawing the line in a different way or in a you know moving two degrees to the right or two degrees to the left, that's where you end up, and that's how you fix the problem. It's not the case. The Russians are using this administration and are kind of manipulating.
them into being a battering ram and to essentially try to get something for nothing, trying to get Ukraine to capitulate and give up territory that Russia can't possibly hope to seize militarily. And then, more beyond that, the the Russian view is going to be, oh, we've pocketed that territorial concession. Look next at what our other demands are. And so the Russians are being very cagey about broader demands that would essentially, for example. Oh.
End Ukraine's existence as an independent sovereign country and put it back under Russia's wing. It would put strict numerical limits on Ukraine's military capabilities going forward, which no Ukrainian president is ever going to agree to. And then they want to wind back the clock on the U.S. security relationship with a number of countries that used to be part of the Soviet Warsaw Pact before the end of the Cold War, and essentially turn the clock back to where we were before. The Soviet collapse in 1991.
Those are all complete pie in the sky, non-starter ideas. But the Russians are very dug in on them, and unfortunately, they're already starting to look past President Trump and saying, "Well, you're only going to be in office for two months, two more years. You may lose big in the midterms. We need these kinds of guarantees of our security." So the Russians are starting to pivot and look past Donald Trump, and I think the window for him is. Finite, and the president needs to reckon with that and see that you know the legacy he needs to leave is one where Europe is going to be stable again, where the United States is going to be the sort of bedrock of European security, and where Russia is going to be constrained and prevented from doing something like this ever again.
That's the right kind of legacy. I think that I think that Iran and Ukraine don't understand our election system. They think Trump's out if his party doesn't do well in the midterms. He's not going anywhere, you know. Which is fine.
It's just so interesting the way Russia and Ukraine have different interpretations when Trump's gone. Russia worries when Trump's gone, and Ukraine can't wait. But little do they know he's actually a friend to both, doing things uniquely. I just think it should be all Ukraine. I see very upside in siding with Russia on anything.
Andrew Weiss, always great. Thanks so much. Hundred percent, Brian. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.
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