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of any purchase of one hundred dollars or more. That's promo code BRIAN. Vice Admiral Robert Horwood. He's the senior adviser with the Iran Pro Policy Project, Hewis Institute for National Security of America. Vice Admiral, welcome.
Ryan, good to be with you.
So do you agree with the general and for me for what it's worth that you cannot say you won if the strait's in Iran's hands? And they charge without a doubt. That's been the objective since day one. And part of that is their ability to project missiles, hit missiles.
So the missiles in the straits have remained a priority from day one. And I can sense a little bit of the president's frustration that that has not been accomplished. And we can do it. Of course, there's risk. Associated, but there's also A lot of other people have more interest, just as the President has said, in this than we are.
So it's I'll be curious to see how NATO responds here after their meetings ongoing today. But the straits are important to everyone. And the thing is, if Iran's never in control again, that is tremendous progress because they've always hung that over everybody's head, correct? That's exactly right. From for their whole entity, they wanted to control the straits.
And here's the more important part. If we didn't do this now, there may have been a point two or three years from now where we could not do it.
So don't squander this opportunity to get a long-term solution here. I think this first outreach from some of the political leaders in Iran that, hey, we're offering to give you this may be an indicator of where we are in the war.
So here is, I know that I guess what you're referring to too is the UK convened about 40 different world leaders yesterday in a Zoom call to talk about what they're going to do. And then nothing concluded from it, but they're talking.
So yesterday we blew up one of the brand new biggest bridges in Tehran and we put the video out there and say more to come. Their answer was to rock at the UAE, Abu Dhabi. They hit a gas field. They shut it down. They hit Kuwaiti refinery.
And they went for Saudi Arabia, but the drones were eliminated.
So, your thoughts about what they have left? That's all they have left. And you're exactly right. Once we get rid of that, the regime's done. That's their lifelines.
They have two lifelines left. Controlling the straits and their ability to launch missiles and drones. Once those are done, the regime is at risk, if not done. You know, the capture of American pilot today adds a new wrinkle to it and will, I'm sure, escalate the conflict to a different level. They did capture an American pilot, that's true.
That's correct. We lost an aircraft today, was shot down, and pilots on the ground, and we believe has been captured by the IRGC. Wow, I did not know that. Last night they claimed to have shot down a Jeff. We said all are accounted for, but you just gave us new information.
Thank you for that.
So we'll look to see what that does change things. But it does amp things up. Just like if we go into the strait and grab an island, there's a chance you could take casualties there. There's a chance they could get lucky and hit one of the ships, right? That's exactly right.
And it's interesting to watch the Israelis, remember their strategy was go after the leadership. You may be seeing some results on that based on now. You have some of these political leaders coming out and tweeting that, hey, we can work through the nuclear issue, we can work through.
So, both of those efforts, an Israeli campaign to eradicate the leadership, while we're focused on missiles and the straits, are coming together. And at one point, they'll culminate to really focus the capability on the center of gravity, which I think will ultimately be the regime. But we've got to solve this missile and the straits first.
So, President Trump put this out. Uh one hour ago. With a little more time, we can easily open up the Hormuz Strait, take the oil and make a fortune. It would be a gusher for the world, Donald Trump.
So if we're in control, he wants to not only be in control of it, he wants to actually take a piece of it, it seems. But he has to understand that no one's going to consider it a victory if Iran's in control. Right now, they're charging millions of dollars just to go through, and they're picking and choosing who's going to be going through. I mean, that cannot stand. The other thing to keep in mind, there's a CNN report that says they still have half of their launchers and half of their drones, and some missile factories on the coast have not been touched.
What do you hear, Admiral? No, I'm hearing a little bit different than that. But everywhere we know they exist, we go after it. But let's get back to this oil thing. I know everybody's concerned about the price of oil now, but I think the President has it right.
If this regime flips and looks west instead of east, the flow of oil coming out of the region changes the whole dynamics. You're going to see an end state where oil is half of what it was before the conflict started, not what it is today.
So that's the potential of all of this. And the ability to have a government in Iran that's part of the international community changes the economic dynamics, not just in the region, but globally.
So I think that's the end state everyone's hoping for. And I think that's the end state that NATO allies, the Europeans, are talking about today. Because they ultimately do need to be a part of this because it affects them dynamically. Look, if NATO didn't want to get involved in Venezuela and we were jammed up in Venezuela, I could see it. They'll say, hey, that's not my hemisphere.
We have no problem with them. I got no history with them. If Cuba goes south and we're having struggles, I get it. If you want to ignore us, that's your option. Got it.
But when you say the straight is in your wars or it's an illegal war and you can't use our bases, I mean, how outrageous is it Austria, Spain, Italy, Germany says we can't use our own bases in their countries? But yeah, it doesn't make sense to me. And I just did a European swing last week, and I went and said, I won't name those countries, but I saw tankers. I saw fighters. I saw certain countries are in support and accommodating.
So it's not wholeheartedly. And again, as you've talked about, I think NATO at the end of the day in Europe is going to realize this opportunity and they're going to have to be involved. I think it's inevitable. If they don't do it now, and we do leave, they've got a much bigger problem on their hand down the road.
So I think inevitably they will get involved and be a partner, the partners they need to be.
So here's what Yvette Cooper said, the British Foreign Minister who put the call together yesterday, cut three. We are focusing on the diplomatic and international planning measures, including collective mobilisation of our full range of diplomatic and economic tools and pressures, and also action to guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers, and the effective coordination that we need across the world to enable a safe and sustained opening of the Straits. But the shooting will be drones, the shooting will be rockets, and it might be mines, right? That's correct. And um Just because the shooting hasn't stopped doesn't mean they're not going to be involved.
Intelligence, logistics, there's other ways they can support. I think you're seeing some of that from her statement right there, indicate they're willing to do some of those things.
So, again, I think those are good first steps, but ultimately, it's going to take a lot more than that. And they'll come to that realization inevitably because it's in their own best national security interests. Admiral, I understand the president doesn't brief them and he gets under their skin, but in the big picture, they got to understand that they have very little leverage here. I mean, we I mean, nobody wa is supporting that I know of. Spain, 1.4% of their GDP want nothing to do with the war, especially set almost an overture out to Iran.
And Austria, as well as Italy. Italy says you can't use our base in Sicily. Uh I think that's outrageous. Here's what Matt Whitaker said about NATO and our relationship. As you know, he is our ambassador there at Cut Five.
You know, as the United States representative to NATO, I am on the President's side in this situation, but I can also, I think, give some good context and color as to what's going on in real time here in Europe. But ultimately, you know, the President's going to make a decision. He's going to say whether or not the United States is going to continue with this relationship. I think ultimately the time is now for our NATO allies to explain. Why they're beneficial to the United States of America and step up.
And I've been saying this now for a year as today is my one-year anniversary of being sworn in.
So, I mean, he's got to bring that message. I know he's got the respect of our military, Whitaker. I wonder if he has the respect of our allies in this alliance. What do you hear?
Well, you know, it's interesting you use the word respect, but because before this war, I heard from our partners in Europe, our partners in the Middle East, they had lost respect for us. And more importantly, no one feared us.
Well, let me tell you, that dynamic has changed dramatically.
Now they do understand we are willing to use force to meet our national security objectives, but we're not focused specifically on theirs. If they want that, they've got to be partnered. And it is in their national security interest, not just today, but more importantly, for the future. And I think politically they're going to come to that realization.
So slowly we're going to have to turn this carrier going in a different direction in Europe. I think it's somewhat inevitable. And my hat's off to the ambassador there who has a hard job of pushing that agenda. But because of the moral and operational high ground, I think he'll get there.
So this is what we could tell you. The Middle East news writes: Iran said on Friday the Islamic Revolutionary Guard defenses had shot down an F-35. A spokesman for Iran's Air Force Central Headquarters said the jets completely destroyed and that the pilots' chances of survival were low. The Axios is saying Iran has shot down a fighter. According to two sources, it will be the first time since the beginning of the war the U.
S. military and the White House didn't immediately respond. And now there's a search and rescue operation out, Admiral Harwood. That's what I'm hearing. I heard an F-15.
I heard the pilot was down. I heard he was in IRGC hands.
So we'll have to see how that plays out today. But if that is the situation where we have one of our pilots in the hands of the Iranians, it will sure change the dynamics in a lot of different ways. Uh in what way?
Well, they have another bargaining chip. They're going to leverage that guy. They're going to put him on camera, as we've seen occurred with pilots before. And this is kind of indicative where warfare is going at all. There's great risk associated with those pilots.
Can we accomplish that with unmanned aircraft, strike aircraft? And so that's all coming. Our future planning and consideration is taking that into court. And that gives you another reason for U.S. boots on the ground.
It wasn't just to open up the straits, the Bob Almandab, keep those warways. But if we've got people on the ground and we have the opportunity to recover them, we may use those forces for that.
Okay, so a couple of things. Lastly, I know you have friends still in Iran. What what do they say about the things uh what's happening on the ground? Most of them are cheering. As they've told me, when they hear strikes, they don't run to the basements, they go up on the roof and look.
So again, I think all of these effects are playing out in Iran with the people. And as we've said from the day That's what's going to turn the tide.
So I think these are indicators of our commitment and present opportunities to help move and influence the regime, if not replace the regime.
So all the people I'm hearing from in Iran are still cheering and anticipating the final outcome. Have anybody have any guns to maybe take their country back? I don't know that, Ryan. As you know, my philosophy from day one, we should have gotten guns to people.
So that may be going on behind the grounds. I sure hope we're preparing for that. And that could play out into your calculus of U.S. boots on the ground. Are you going to put them in somewhere where they can help?
Instigate and build that upsurge from the people.
So, again, another option for the president tied in with the Israelis, our intel community, and where that opposition resides, and how we can best galvanize it. Admiral, a lot of moving parts. Thanks so much. I appreciate it.
