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But in the next one year The vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers. We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs. That's one year, okay? What happens in two years?
Well, I've just told you about reasoning, and I've told you about programming, and I told you about math. programming plus math are the basis of sort of our whole digital world.
So the evidence and the claims from the research groups in OpenAI and Anthropic and so forth is that they're now somewhere around 10 or 20 percent. Of the code that they're developing in their research programs is being generated by. The computer.
So that is Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, painting a picture of a future that no one could quite figure out, but we are on this path. Tristan Harris has been talking about this almost since the advent of AI. And we remember Sam Altman, I think it was on 2020 or 60 Minutes, or I think it was ABC, just talking about what AI does. And my jaw was on the ground, and Tristan, yours wasn't. Uh and Why?
You kind of saw the path. that we're heading on. What do you think about what Eric Schmidt said about the acceleration of AI? Yeah, so Eric was just talking about how AI is going to be as good a mathematician as the best human mathematicians in the next year. And it is going to out-compete programmers.
I don't remember when that actual quote happened. I think it was actually a few months ago now. Since we've last seen each other, Brian, AI has now won gold in the International Math Olympiad. That is a crazy accomplishment. People would have never believed you if that was possible.
Beat every human. Beating the humans. At Anthropic, one of the leading AI companies, the CEO Dario Amadai, said that AI is writing 70 to 90% of the code. This is crazy. And programming is going to be one of the first jobs that AI automates because what people need to know is these companies are not in a race to cure cancer, they're not in a race to solve climate change, they're not in a race to create tutors, they're in a race to build artificial general intelligence, which is the ability to have an AI, an artificial mind that can do everything that a human mind can do in the economy.
So think about any job in the economy. If you have a desk job, you won't have a job because the whole mission statement of these companies is to build something that can match human performance. And how's what's the best way to get there?
Well How do we make AI? We write code and we program it.
So, what happens when the AI companies automate AI research?
So, think of your OpenAI, you've got several hundred employees, they're doing AI research, they're manually reading papers, manually programming things. What happens when I can automate an AI researcher?
Now I can spin up 100 million digital AI researchers that are just doing research 24-7. They don't whistleblow, they don't complain, they don't have to be paid for health care. That's why these companies are racing to automate programs.
Well, we did see this week that the president signed an executive order to get AI to work on child cancer. Yep. Why was that even necessary? I thought we would be working on that with all the money that's pouring into cancer. You would think so.
You would think so. Now, I just want to first say, now, obviously, AI has unbelievable. Upside, and that's why people are so excited about it. Like things like what I just mentioned. Yeah, just things like what you just mentioned, and that it will be able to invent new cancer drugs.
But we should be asking the question: why aren't we trying to go upstream and regulate all the carcinogens that are giving everybody cancer? Rather than sort of create brand new chemicals or proteins that can also have side effects that cause even more problems, we're not trying to deal with the actual source of the problem. We're just trying to throw more money downstream at helping to mitigate the problem. And I think that AI, we need to be applying it to regulating the production of cars. You mentioned how many jobs are going to disappear.
Yeah. And how is that different than any other time? Yeah, this is the same thing. When we have mass production, when Henry Ford came in, exactly. And then we have the horse.
Everybody, that's how you transport yourself, and in comes the car. What's going to happen to those horse breeders? Right, exactly. And they always find a new job. But here's what's different this time, Brian.
We always, you know, we had the elevator man, then we automate the elevator man. We had the bank teller, we automate the bank teller. But what's different about AI from all other technologies is that the whole mission statement of OpenAI and Google and all these companies. Is to be able to do everything that a human can do, meaning thinking, science, generating hypotheses, legal analysis, writing scripts, Hollywood, generating movies, generating music. And it's already doing a vast percentage of those things, almost as good as humans are.
But aren't they living off our knowledge? Yes, they're training all off of our data. In fact, the more you use ChatGPT, you're actually giving it the training data to obsolete you. And so people are feeding erroneous things into AI. Hi everyone, it's Brian Kilmead here.
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People are using AI to generate AI slop, which then starts to fill the internet. Then that gets training.
So, you know, it's like the inmates are running the asylum. We have kind of the worst of human nature sort of training the AIs. That's all true, but there's also a bunch of high-quality training data that companies are paying for. And that's why we have to just look at the raw evidence. It is beating us at math.
It's beating us at programming. It's beating us at certain kinds of science. It's already inventing new materials, new antibiotics. And if it's good at these things and the more people use it, it's going to just learn how to take their job. People have to realize that the end game of this is the mass concentration and wealth and power into a handful of companies.
Because think about your company. Right now, all these customers pay the company. And instead of the company paying all the employees, it's going to say, well, I could pay this expensive employee or I could just pay an AI that works for. For less than minimum wage, who works 24-7.
So, are we going to win this race?
Well, we're winning. But Eric Schmidt of Google says this about China. China is competing with open weights and open training data, and the U.S. is largely and majority focused on closed weights, closed data. That means that the majority of the world, think of it as the Belt and Road Initiative, are going to use Chinese models and not American models.
We better also be competing with the Chinese in day-to-day stuff. Their work ethic is incredible. They're well funded. It's not the crazy valuations that we have in America. They can't raise the capital, but they can win across that.
Yeah. Do you agree with everything you said?
So and the power. They have much more power than we do. You mean energy space? Energy, I should say. They're building energy way faster than we can.
And that's one of the rate-limiting factors. One of the few factors that the U.S. has to slow China down is that we have the advanced GPUs and chips that they depend on. NVIDIA. The NVIDIA chips.
And I'll just say bluntly: I disagree with the decision to sell China these NVIDIA H20 chips that happened recently. Dario Amedai said that this is really giving away the keys to the castle because right now the biggest rate.
Sorry, Dario, he's the CEO of Anthropic.
So think of like the Sam Altman for the other leading company. And he basically said, if we sell them the chips, this is the number one reason why they're not making as much progress as we are. Um, and if we give them those chips, it's like, would you sell the whole world uranium or sell the Soviet Union uranium so that they're building nuclear weapons? But people say that's not the higher level chips, we're going to the 20s instead of the 100s or something like that. Yeah, these are these sort of semi-handicapped chips, the H20s versus these things called the H200s.
What matters for people that they should know is that, you know, when you use ChatGPT and it does this like more reasoning now, it kind of thinks through the answer, that's using this different kind of processing called inference. I don't want to bore your listeners with the technical details, but that kind of processing of reasoning through a problem is going to take up more of the compute of AI. And that's what these chips, these H20s, are really good for.
So we're selling them the chips to do more thinking faster, which is going to out-compete. I should tell everyone Sunday at 10 o'clock you're going to be on with me. Tristan Harris is with us. Lastly, you told me, I don't really care much, if I'm paraphrased correctly, if we beat China or not, because we beat them to the internet. How did that work out?
Exactly. We'll beat them specifically to social media. Do you feel that way is weaker? Yes. Do you feel differently now?
Do you feel as though we have to win now? Have you changed your mindset on this? There's two risks we have to manage, Brian. There's the risk of not building AI and China wins, and then there's the risk of building AI and doing it so recklessly that we sort of shoot ourselves in the foot. And we're currently Not doing a great job of both, because we're reckless.
Philippe, yes, absolutely. I mean, think about all the cases of AI psychosis. We worked with the family of Adam Rain, the young man who committed suicide, because ChatGPT went from homework assistant to suicide assistant over the course of six months. It mentioned the word suicide six times more than he mentioned it on his own. And when we are releasing this technology in a way to young people and saying, This is your best tutor, this is your best friend, this is your best therapist, and it has a kind of oracular, oracle-like quality, answers every question confidently, and knows your intimate details better than anybody else, we're starting to see people already have attachment disorders because we're rolling this out to children without actually thinking through it, just like we did with social media.
And I Tristan, yeah, unfortunately the music is going to get louder and overwhelm us, but we just are scratching the surface. It is fascinating, especially talking to someone who understands it so much, so well. Tristan Harris, co-founder of Center for Humane Technology. Thanks. It's Will Tain Country.
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