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So whether you're a startup going for your first SOC 2 or ISO 27001 or a growing enterprise managing vendor risk, Vanta makes it quick, easy, and scalable. And I'm not just saying that because I work here. Get started at Vanta.com. Joining us now is an expert in the field who actually, a little bit of a Nostradamus, too, because he called for this, I believe, in 2012 with an amazing article. Joining me now is Matthew Kroenig.
He's the Vice President and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Skrokoff Center for Strategy and Security. And he's going to be joining us today via Zoom.
So I'm pretty excited about that. And we're going to get his thoughts on Israel's strikes on Iran last night.
So Matthew, how are you doing, boss? I'm doing well, and it's a pleasure to be with you. I've enjoyed your work for many years, so an honor to be with you this morning. Oh, thank you very much. And again, I know you're not going to do I told you so, but I feel like.
I told you so. I am in, and I think the majority that completely understands why Israel is doing what they're doing, given the fact that war was declared on them October 7th, and their existential threat is a real one, in fact. All things seem all money, all things seem to be coming from Iran as far as financing Hezbollah and Hamas and stuff.
So it was only a matter of time. And like I said, Iran had, what, 60 days to try to figure something out. And President Trump so eloquently put, this is day 61.
So as an expert on this, your take would be greatly appreciated. Yeah, well, on the Told You So piece, I used to work on the Iran desk at the Pentagon, and when I left, I wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs that got a lot of attention. And I essentially said there are only three ways this crisis is going to turn out over Iran's nuclear program. Either we just give up and let Iran have nuclear weapons, but that would be catastrophic to live with those threats forever. Second, we could get some kind of deal, but I said that's going to be really hard.
And I think we saw Obama's deal was too weak. Trump was right to pull out.
So I said the only remaining option is the military option. And so I think. Israel waited until the very last moment. Iran, according to several officials, was only a week or two away from the point of no return, and so it was a last resort, and Israel took military action to keep them from getting the bomb. Yeah, exac and when you hear days away That could have been hours away, or they could have, in fact, just were putting the bells and whistles, so to speak.
And so you can't really have an issue with what Israel did, given the fact that. Iran's been kind of known for pushing the line and trying to buy, and it's 1,000% trying to buy time. Uh The pushback is different from the United States. And it just, it just, our response feels different now from the previous administration. I felt like everything that Israel did in the Biden administration was kind of scoffed or was like a half, almost a half-assed if they were supportive.
It was never full support. They're always trying to split the diff. And I think. The new administration, no matter whether they disagree or not, you feel the presence. of the United States in full support of Israel.
Do you see the same thing I'm seeing? I think that's right. The Biden administration was kind of trying to find a balance in the region. And I think the Trump administration understands that there are pro-American governments in the region, like Israel, and there are anti-American governments in the region, like in Iran. And we need to choose sides.
It makes sense to support your friends and be tough on your enemies.
Now, one of the President Trump earlier, I played a sot where he was discussing this wasn't good for the deal, but then in the middle of him saying it could be. Easier or better for the deal. Do you foresee? Because if you're. Can there can you two of your plans Happen at once where a military is being, the military reaction or military force is being used to force them to come to the table.
Well, I think that the military option can strengthen your hand in diplomacy. And Frederick the Great used to say that diplomacy without armaments is like music without instruments.
So I do think they go hand in hand. And maybe this new military pressure will coerce the supreme leader into finally making a deal. I think that is kind of unlikely, though. He refers to Israel as the little Satan, to the United States as the Great Satan. And so I think if he agreed to a deal with the Great Satan under this pressure from the Little Satan, he would look weak among his core supporters in Iran, in the military and the clerical establishment.
So I think he'll probably continue to resist, even though he is suffering a lot. And this nuclear program that he spent decades and billions of dollars to construct is lying in rubble right now.
So he is in a difficult spot, but I think he'll probably continue to resist.
Well, given the fact that the response from Iran with the hundred drones being released, and I believe most of them were already knocked out by Israel's air defense system. It it feels like they Invested so much so into the nuclear side and the funding other people to do their biddings that they don't have the necessary military prowess to really pose an actual threat. Because they keep saying they're always, oh, our response will be earth-shadowing and the world will know. And then it's like seven rockets. You know, I mean, we're just not, is it, we're calling their bluff and they do not have.
the capabilities to Other than the terroristic random things, or hoping that one missile gets through, or ten missiles, if they shoot a hundred, that ten will get through, that they don't necessarily have the military prowess to where. They could really put a stop to Israel if Israel decided to go full scorch earth on them. That's exactly right. And you've had some journalists today saying, oh, this is going to lead to a wider regional war. But that overlooks the fact that Iran is actually really weak.
And five years or so ago, people would say, well, we can't strike Iran's nuclear facilities because, if so, they'll ask Hamas to retaliate. But now Hamas has been almost completely decimated by Israel after October 7th. They'd say Hezbollah would retaliate, but now Hezbollah has been almost completely decimated by Israel, including with the really ingenious walkie-talkie and other types of attacks. And they'd say, oh, well, Iran's going to retaliate with massive missile and drone attacks. But then we saw last year when they conducted those attacks against Israel in October and May, Israel's Iron Dome system, with American help and technology, was able to shoot down almost all the drones.
And so Iran's going to try to attack, but as you pointed out, they don't really have a lot of good options.
So they They're not going to get their nuclear stuff. They've lost a lot of scientists, I believe, or at least that's what the estimate is, and some of their generals. Do you? Do you support a regime change or is it a, and I'm sure they're going to love this, or is it needs to be a come to Jesus moment for Iran, so to speak, in terms of the world that they thought they were in or the position they were in, they grossly overplayed their hand, and they're going to have to deal with some really tough rules going forward. I think a different government in Iran that respected the human rights of its people, that was cooperative internationally, would be terrific.
I just think the United States doesn't have that much ability to control domestic politics in Iran. I think it's unlikely that these strikes alone are going to lead to the fall of regime. You know, the sad reality in Iran for a long time has been that the clerics, the mullahs in power in Iran, are willing to kill their own people to stay in power. And the people haven't been willing to rise up and fight and die in large enough numbers to take power.
So I suspect the regime will hang on. But then one of the key questions is: do they try to rebuild this nuclear program at some point, or do they give up? And the Israelis have said, well, if they rebuild, we can just mow the grass. Yeah, you know what? One of the ice, I was talking to Charlie Hurt today from he was on Fox and Friends, and I get the impression from the White House, the way they're handling things, is almost like, hey, look, I'm trying to help you out.
I can't hold this guy off. If I got to let this guy off the leash, he's going to lay waste to everything.
So before he goes, I'm willing to help you out. But I can only do so much. And they're still supporting. Israel's right to defend itself. Again, war.
Israel didn't declare war on Iran and Hezbollah and Hamas. They declared on Israel. And Israel is doing what any nation would do. If the United States was dealing, if this was happening, and let's say it was Mexico doing this in the United States, I don't think there'd be any question to bombing their nuclear facilities and those type of things.
So do you see? Our presence, or you see the way the president's handling it strategically from a business aspect of things, I think it's brilliant, honestly. I think he's not splitting a diff, he's saying, hey, I'm trying to help you. But, you know, help me help you because they're coming for you. Yeah, I agree.
I think the Trump administration has played this pretty well. I think it's unlikely that Israel would have done this without consulting with Washington.
So I think we knew this was coming and we gave them a wink and a nod. But at the same time, Secretary Rubio and others have been very clear that this is an Israeli military action. The United States is not directly involved. And so we'll see how Iran responds. If Iran retaliates directly against Americans, Trump has been very clear that his job as President is to protect Americans anywhere.
So if Iran overplays their hand, there's the risk that the United States could get involved. But I think, again, that you're right, that the Trump administration has played this well of supporting Israel without directly involving the United States. Right. And I think the threat, again, we've been in America, we've been dealing with fake existential threats, you know, President Trump with Hitler and all the propaganda. Whereas Israel's been dealing with an actual real existential threat.
And if I could play a SOP for you real quick, number two, Major Doran Spellman, who was talking about what prompted the preemptive strikes. Look, Iran has been saying for years that they're going to be striking Israel with nuclear weapons as soon as they can enrich uranium. They have a countdown clock that literally counts down to Israel's destruction. and we know that they've been trying to enrich visible material for years. Based on Israeli intelligence reports, we are very close to the point of no return and the point at which we won't even have intelligence.
How far the program is sitting, unless we hit right now. And on that basis, Israel started this morning the rising lion. Essentially, a preemptive attack on Iran to eliminate this nuclear threat. We believe that they mean to carry it out as soon as they have this material. I mean, you can't get any more direct and honest than that.
How do you push back against that? to say Israel shouldn't be defending themselves. I completely agree this is an existential threat to Israel. A former Iranian foreign minister called Israel a two-bomb country. Meaning, one nuclear weapon on Tel Aviv, one nuclear weapon on Jerusalem.
There's not much left of the country. And so a nuclear Iran is an existential threat to Israel. But I'd also point out it's a threat to the United States. Iran is working on intercontinental ballistic missiles.
So if we had let this go on, Iran would have the ability to launch nuclear weapons at New York or Washington. And so Israel is really doing the United States a favor here, too, eliminating a threat from one of our biggest rivals.
Well, I also think it's important that now that we now that America is taking when a country makes a threat, they're taking it as a threat, not, oh, well, you know, it's because of this or that, you know, all the progressive talk we got from the previous administration. If you are making statements like that, I would take every statement from Iran as a factual, actual threat. And I believe they thought they had enough where they were getting the goal was to make 10 bombs. I think they were within days of being able to make five to ten bombs. And to acknowledge what you said, they only needed two.
In all seriousness, they only needed one. Because it's not just going to be Israel. It's not like the nuclear fallout and dust and radiation poisoning is just going to stay in Israel. And depending on what wind gets caught up, eventually we could have that showing up on the shores. It'll definitely be in our oceans, which it could be in our food supply.
So, I mean, it is not just Israel that is in danger. It's Ipdofat, anything, all surrounding countries. And eventually we could see it depending on how the currents work. It could be in our own backyard.
So I think you have to take the desperation of Iran trying to, because that's their only shot is a nuclear missile. They cannot compete with Israel militarily at all. Correct? I mean, they just don't have it. Yeah, that's right.
And that's part of the reason that Iran's been investing so much in these kind of asymmetric capabilities, terrorism at the low end and nuclear weapons at the high end, because they don't really have a conventional military. And so this is their asymmetric strategy. And then to your previous point, the Biden administration really focused on avoiding escalation, which essentially meant that the adversaries knew they could get away with a lot and there wouldn't be consequences. And I think what I hope the Trump administration is teaching Iran and others right now is that no, if you go too far, there will be consequences. And supporting Israel now in really imposing serious cost on Iran for all their threats and all their misbehavior.
And it's good that the adults are back in the room. I guess that's the feeling that I feel when it comes to what's going on in the world today: that America is back to being. To watching over and being America, being the world's policeman again. And I think the world's a better place when America is at the top of the food chain.
So, thank you so much for this time. I really appreciate it. We're going to go into our break. Always informative. It was a real honor to sit down with you.
I feel that my opinions are now validated, so now I feel intellectually smart.
So now I can go on another show and drop some expertise.
So thank you so much. This is Jason Chaffetz from the Jason in the House podcast. Join me every Monday to dive deeper into the latest political headlines and chat with remarkable guests. Listen and follow now at FoxnewsPodcast.com or wherever you download podcasts. Listen to the show at free on Fox News Podcast Plus, on Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music with your Prime Membership, or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Mm.
