Jim Bowden | Former MLB GM, CBS Sports Baseball Analyst

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That's bluenile.com. We're pleased to welcome Jim Bowden, longtime front office executive and general manager, now with CBS Sports HQ. And here we are. Major League Baseball free agency is underway, but let's start with the Astros, Jim. What stands out to you about this team and the journey they just completed? This was the best team in baseball. Normally the best team in baseball doesn't win the World Series, but that was the case this year. And it was great to see 73-year-old Dusty Baker in his Hall of Fame managerial career finally win a World Series for the first time and become the oldest manager to ever win a World Series. His leadership certainly was felt upon.

Players loved play for him. But this was a complete team, right? I mean, they're starting pitching with seven pitchers deep, all dominant. We watched Christian Javier in relievers, so a no-hitter. Justin Berlander is going to win the Cy Young Award.

Framber Valdez is the best curveball with any left-handed pitcher in the game. And oh, by the way, they have an impact closer in Ryan Presley. And then on the field, you know, look, I mean, I've been covering the last six years for the last six years in the World Series. Jose Altuve and Alex Breitman, I mean, they're just always there. And here they are winning their second world championship together. So it's a special team. They've done a great job of developing young players. I mean, a young shortstop, 20-year-old Jeremy Pena, replacing Carlos Carrere left in pre-agency.

And all he did was win a gold glove, becoming the first rookie to ever win a gold-gloved shortstop, as well as winning the LCF and World Series MVP. So, look, it is a very special team, great makeup, very smart group of guys. They really are a family. And it's nice, I think, in our sport when the best team actually wins because it doesn't happen very often.

Why is that, Jim? Why doesn't the best team win the majority of the time? You know, a lot of times when you get to the postseason, if you have really strong starting pitching, you can just run the table. We watched the Phillies, right?

They were the 12th seed of the 12 playoff teams. And they made it all the way to Game 6 of the World Series, only winning 87 games. But with Wheeler and Nolan and Suarez and the rotation, they ran the table. And it's a lot like the NHL and hockey, where you get a hot gold tender in the playoffs, you can run the table. And the same thing is true in baseball. I mean, we've seen many wildcard teams, including the Kansas City Royals, the Angels run the table and end up winning. So, in baseball, you get hot at the right time in October, you have the right starting pitching, you can win a short series. There are some teams that are built for 162-game schedule and some that end up doing better in short series in October. I have some diehard hockey fans who are absolutely going to be Jim Bowden disciples from this point on with the hockey reference.

I love that. This playoff format was a little bit different, right? So, we kind of saw the series stacked and it seemed like almost every big series ended on Saturdays. But how do you like the format that they've tweaked for the last month? I didn't like the scheduling of it, right?

I don't like the five-off days. But I do like the expanded playoffs and I like more teams getting in, because I think it's going to give more incentive to small and mid-market owners to spend the extra money. You know, when they see the Phillies win 87 games and make it all the World Series, and while the 100-win Dodgers and the 100-win Braves and the 100-win Mets went home, I mean, it gives incentive to an owner. Let's take the Milwaukee Brewers, who traded Josh Hader at the trade deadline. They finished one game behind the Phillies in the standings, one game, and they went home. And if they hadn't traded Hader, Hader probably would have been in the playoffs and the Phillies probably would have been home. So, I do think the message was sent really to teams to say, hey, you get in, anything can happen. I have to say this though, when I think back to the beginning of the year, it almost seems like the lockout's a distant memory. How do you think that baseball recovered from what was a fairly black mark and a bit of a bleak time, according to fans anyway? Yeah, look, it's behind the sport.

I'm glad you brought that up because it is forgotten. And I've just been traveling the month of October throughout the playoffs and the World Series, and it's a thing of the past. And if the subject is brought up, it's like, isn't it great that we have labor peace for the next several years?

You know, and that is the case. And so we're heading into an offseason where free agency is just loaded with superstars. Aaron Judge, who just finished the best offensive season of any player in the history of the sport, is on the open market. We have three future Hall of Fame pitchers that are entering free agency.

Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw. We have four elite shortstops in Carlos Correa, Trey Turner, Xander Bogart, and and Dansby Swanson all in the open market. So, you know, free agency is going to be a lot of fun. There's a lot of talent, a lot of money is going to get spent. We've got teams that are out right now in Las Vegas talking trades. So we're going to have a great hot stove. Free agent signings is going to be big trades.

We have the winter meetings coming up December 4th in San Diego, California. That is just going to be absolutely rocking. So I think the sport is in a really great spot. You know, they continue to work to try to get the streaming better so that everybody in every market can watch every game and I think they're heading in a direction to get there. So I think the sport's in a really healthy position right now. I wouldn't have thought that so many fans would be able to forgive and forget because I'm sure you heard from as many as I did who said, that's it, I'm done.

This is the last straw. Baseball's not worth it anymore and yet it felt like the second the games came back in April, okay, okay, we forgive you. We're just so happy that you've returned again. You're exactly right and I think part of that also is the fact that the game is loaded with so much good, young, energetic talent and players that are willing to be out there. You know, this is the first time that you can watch national broadcasts and they'll interview the players right in the middle of the game.

He had a home run and they'll pop to you right in the dugout. Like, we've never done that before. Players are getting more involved in, you know, commercials or caries and they're everywhere and the players are embracing the chance to show their personalities, you know, whether it be on Instagram or Facebook or TikTok or, you know, whether it just be joining radio and TV shows more than ever before. This young group is embracing the spotlight. They want the spotlight, right?

They're bringing more enthusiasm to the game, you know, with these backflips and these celebrations that they're having. I mean, it's working and now the game is going to put in a pitch clock and I'm telling you, fans are going to love this because it worked in the minor leagues and it cut down games by 20 minutes. Fans don't want to sit there and watch a three-hour baseball game just like they don't want to go to a movie theater and watch a three-hour movie.

There's a reason why movies are an hour 50 or 210 or 220, right? There's a reason for that because people don't want to sit there for three. This pitch clock is going to shave off significant time in games and I think it's something baseball needed to do. I think banning the defensive shifts are going to be big because it's going to bring athleticism back in the sport. Increasing the bases and not allowing pitchers to throw over more than three times, it's going to create more stolen bases and it's going to speed up the game. So, I think baseball is doing a really good job of saying, hey, this isn't the same baseball you might have played 5, 10, 20 years ago, but we're listening to this generation and we know what you guys want. We hear you and we're going to make adjustments and make this game quicker, more athletic, and more fun for you all. A lot of fun changes in store for 2023. We're really excited to spend a few minutes with Jim Bowden, who's a long time Major League Baseball general manager and executive and is with CBS Sports HQ as an analyst and an insider.

It's after hours here on CBS Sports Radio. Jim, you brought up Aaron Judge. This is obviously a major question. I can only imagine the union is salivating over the type of numbers that he will bring in because it sets a tone. What should a team be willing to pay him? So, I think my prediction, my contract prediction of what he's going to get is eight years, 330 million. He turned down 217 million last March. He's going to get 100 million more than that and I think more. So, I'm going to go eight years, 330. Now, someone may pay him, may give it 10 years and spread it out for tax benefits.

I don't think that this is going to age well when you get to years six, seven, and eight. I think it will age similar to what Miguel Cabrera, Albert Puls, and Joey Botto's contracts did, but this is the cost of doing business and if you want the player, that's what you're going to have to pay. Now, I'll argue that when the Phillies gave Harper that 13-year deal, there were a lot of people that criticized it. After watching him this year, I don't think anyone's going to criticize it. Phillies were in the World Series. Everyone criticized the Padres for giving Machado, Manny Machado, $300 million.

I don't think anyone's going to criticize them after watching them get to the NLCS and him being a major part of it. Judge is going to get paid, all right. If you're the Yankees, do you do whatever it takes, even if it means giving the extra year, spreading out some money, yada, yada, yada, because of what he means to the franchise? I don't know what Aaron's going to do, right?

He's kept it close to his vest. I try to read between the lines with his public comments and his public comments seem to always express that he wants to stay a Yankee and wants to finish his career in pinstripes. That's kind of what he says without saying it, but when you get the free agency, anything can happen. 25 years ago, I don't think anybody thought that the San Francisco Giants were going to put up $45 million for Barry Bonds, which back then just blew the market out.

It only takes one owner to blow the market out. What if the San Francisco Giants or the New York Mets decide they're going to pay them $400 million? I don't think the Yankees will match that. I think the Yankees will move on and go a different direction. It really depends upon, is there an owner that's going to step up and blow everybody out, or is everyone going to look at them reasonably and say 8-330 or 8-300?

Or 8-320 or 8-340 or whatever is going to be in that range? I think that's how it's going to play out, but owners have taught me a long time ago, it only takes one to be a fool that really is for everybody else. Oh, that's going to be my new favorite phrase about Major League Baseball. In general, how do you feel about contracts that go 10 or more years, Jim?

It depends on the age of the player. If you're 24 years old, I'm good with it. So the Julio Rodriguez you're okay with? Yeah, I was okay with that. I was okay with the teeth until I found out he tested positive for PED.

Yeah, I'm okay. I think the thing is when you look at all of the algorithms with aging, the risk really starts to enter at 34 years old. I think that anytime you sign a guy 34 or older, the risk becomes a lot higher and nobody knows for sure how people are going to age. Certainly, there's exceptions like David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre, but for the most part decline really starts at 34 and then it can hit you hard at 35.

And I think you really got to be careful during those years not to have too much money on the books because it comes with a lot of risk and it's going to hurt those teams down the road. But when you have a young superstar like Julio, I have no problem locking him up, especially because of the talent that he brings to the table. Who is your American League MVP? Oh, that's Aaron Judge and Otani finishes second. And I would create a new award called the Unicorn Award and that would go to the best player in the sport and I would just give that to Otani every year. And I wouldn't even have voting for this. I would just say, okay, as long as you're in the league show, hey, you are player of the year and you get the Unicorn Award.

Congratulations. We're excited to spend a few minutes with Jim Bowden here on After Hours, CBS Sports Radio from the Angels yet again. They're not trading Shohei Otani. So we got that message at the deadline.

Now we're getting it again. How do you like this move when it comes to a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2013? The team is being sold. And so the question for the owner, Artie Marino, is, is your team more valuable with Otani on it or with Otani not on it?

Got it. Also, do you want your last move as an owner to be trading Otani or do you want to make the new owner do it? I don't think Otani is going to sign with the Angels after this coming year. I think he's going to be a free agent. And I think that the Angels, when they get a new owner, will trade them. He'll be traded by July 31st at the trade deadline. But for the off season, they've been very clear they're not going to trade them.

And I understand they're thinking of that. We're selling the team. Let's keep Otani and Trout.

Let's add a few more pieces and let's try to sell this team for as much as we possibly can. The Justin Verlander question is an interesting one because he's coming off of a year in which many people believe he'll grab that Cy Young. He finally got his first World Series victory. Another ring, obviously, and he's a major part of that.

And yet he's about to turn 40. What do you do with him since he's going to be a free agent? I give him a three-year deal. And, you know, if I'm the owner, I give him a three-year contract.

He just said Tommy, John, he's healthy. Three years, 135 million. And I can't wait for him to pitch game one of the World Series next year. What about Jacob deGrom, who has indicated through people around him that he does want to stay with the Mets? I would say two years, 90 million. And he gets an opt-out after one year. Look, he's such a health risk. He hasn't made more than 15 starts in any of the last three years.

So I'd have to look at the shoulder and the elbow on the MRIs to see what they really say, to see how much risk they are. But if I was a team, I would be scared to give him a three, four, or five-year deal. So I would try to do a two-year deal, guarantee him, say, 90 million, which would give him more than Scherzer's 43 million AAV, and then let him opt out after a year. If he proves he's healthy and can get a longer-term deal, let him opt out a year from now. I do think the Braves and the Texas Rangers are two teams that are going to play on them. Interesting. I understand that the money itself and the high-profile signings and all the young talent, that's good for baseball.

It's good for the market. But doesn't it eliminate some of the teams, meaning there's only so many teams that can afford some of these top-flight free agents, which then means that you end up with fewer teams that have the stars and fewer teams that maybe have the draw for casual fans? So the Guardians, Cleveland Guardians, had 17 rookies on their team this year. Seventeen made their debuts, and they lost to the Yankees in five games. They were one win away from getting to the American League Championship Series to play the Astros with 17, 17 rookies. The Houston Astros, if we go back and look at their first championship in 17, that was a young team of homegrown talent that was brought up in the system. Springer, Correa, Altuve, Bregman. Now you've got Kyle Tucker.

You were on Alvarez and Jeremy Pena. The key to winning is to develop from within and young, and then add a piece when you're ready to go over the top, like the Astros did with Verlander and before that, Garrett Cole. If you want to win, you have to build it from within with young players. Then every team, including the small-market teams, can afford to add that one expensive or two expensive players to put your team over the top.

That formula does work. All right, so before I let you go, then we've got a bunch of shortstops, which really could be a lot of fun, big moves for teams. Which one or ones would you give one of these big deals to?

Because you know that it'll change your franchise. Yeah, so I'll rank them for you. I've got Carlos Correa one, Trey Turner two, Xander Bogarts three, and Dansby Swanson four, in that order. And I would take any one of them and be thrilled if I had a team with a needed shortstop. I like Correa the best because a year ago, he was the platinum, Gold Glove platinum winner for the best defensive player in the sport. Hits for average, hits for power, brings in a winning culture. I also like his age of 27, young enough. Trey Turner's 29, 21 homers, 27 steals. Not as good defender as Correa, but I love the player. But remember, 30 of his hits were infield hits.

I'm not sure how well that's gonna age in five years. Something to keep in mind because Xander Bogarts is a little bit older. He's 30 years old, but I absolutely love this guy. He finished with a 5.7 war. And then there's Dansby Swanson, who's kind of like Derek Jeter in the fact that on the field, he's always in the right place at the right time and always overachieves. He seems to get the right hit.

He seems to be always able to take that extra base hit. He also coming off a 5.7 war type of season. All of them are going to get paid $150 million to $350 million.

So they're all going to be extremely wealthy and I can't wait to find out where they land. Oh, it's going to be a fun off season. I asked this question about football because it doesn't seem like there's an off season anymore. What is the downtime for baseball now in its cycle? Oh, the downtime Christmas Day, um, New Year's Eve and Valentine's Day, but it's not really Valentine's Day because every year I argue that baseball shouldn't make their players report until the day after Valentine's Day because it's like they should be able to love their wife and kids and girlfriends or whatever, boyfriends, whatever, fiance, whatever. Right. But baseball seems to have them always report then.

So that really doesn't work. So I'll go with Christmas Day and New Year's Eve is the only two days off that baseball has in a calendar year. Oh, at least they get those two holidays and get a chance to celebrate. It has become a year round venture.

That's for sure. You can find Jim Bowden on Twitter at Jim Bowden, GM, longtime major league baseball executive, former executive of the year. Now you can see him on CBS Sports HQ and hear him on Sirius XM. It's a great honor to have you on the show again, Jim. Thanks so much for a couple of minutes.

Love your show and thanks for having me on. The holidays are coming. Find a gift for someone special with jewelry from Blue Nile. Blue Nile offers an endless selection of bold gold styles, gemstone jewelry and classic diamond pieces. Shop early and save up to 40%. Need your special piece fast?

In most cases, jewelry can ship overnight, guaranteed free shipping and returns. And now Blue Nile is offering special holiday deals. Save up to 40% on the season's most stunning trends. Shine bright this holiday season at bluenile.com.

That's bluenile.com. The holidays are coming. Find a gift for someone special with jewelry from Blue Nile. Blue Nile offers an endless selection of bold gold styles, gemstone jewelry and classic diamond pieces. Shop early and save up to 40%. Need your special piece fast?

In most cases, jewelry can ship overnight, guaranteed free shipping and returns. And now Blue Nile is offering special holiday deals. Save up to 40% on the season's most stunning trends. Shine bright this holiday season at bluenile.com. That's bluenile.com. Whether it's diamond earrings or an engagement ring, Blue Nile can help you design something special made just for her. At Blue Nile, choose from thousands of diamonds and settings. Have your one-of-a-kind piece delivered right to your door in discreet packaging that won't give away what's inside. Guaranteed free shipping and returns. And now Blue Nile is offering special holiday deals. Go to bluenile.com and use code radio to save $50 on purchases of $500 or more. Hurry, this offer expires soon. bluenile.com, code radio.